I've changed my mind - First Production

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tivoboy

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#61
$9K for 90 miles, more power, faster charging, and likely much greater battery pack longevity (fewer charge cycles for the same miles driven). Yes, the upcharge is likely near triple Tesla's cost for the extra kWh, but you definitely get more than just an extra 90 miles.

Also... remember that with the Model S, it is $19,500 for an extra 76 miles of range. With the Model 3, you get nearly the same range as the S that starts at $94,000.
It's a lot, but I think the rewards are fairly decent-especially if it means an inline buyer can still get access to the full 7500$ Federal tax credit. I will say that I don't think the 9K$ is 3x Teslas cost for the upgrade. It's a multiple, but probably more in the 1.5-2x range.
 

RunCycle

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#62
I read a roadtest from back in the day on a 1971 Mercury Cyclone with a 428 Cobra Jet 4 speed that did 0-60 in 5.6 seconds. IIRC, the SR 3 is supposed to make that sprint in the same amount of time!

Now, IF Tesla has made available a defeat traction control software selection, I promise never to use it when my wife is in the car, and I will refer her to a thread that says it is a natural tendency for RWD Tesla's rear tires to wear out faster. I'm sure it has nothing to do with having a powerful RWD car and showing off! :D
They have a "slip" feature, I believe, which sorta lets the wheels slip, but it still has some control. I am basing this knowledge off this video:
 

Maevra

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#63
They have a "slip" feature, I believe, which sorta lets the wheels slip, but it still has some control. I am basing this knowledge off this video:
Yep that's right, it's called the "Slip Start" option. It basically prevents you from going in excess of 40mph at the beginning so you can better control the car as it accelerates. Should only be used in certain road conditions though.
 
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Bokonon

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#64
Tangential question for @garsh: if you end up going with AWD, how would that decision affect your choice of wheel / tire setup (if at all)? Would you still go with staggered wheels? Summer/winter tires?

(Not trying to re-ignite the debate over the latter choice... :eek: ... just asking out of curiosity.)
 

TheTony

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#65
I read a roadtest from back in the day on a 1971 Mercury Cyclone with a 428 Cobra Jet 4 speed that did 0-60 in 5.6 seconds. IIRC, the SR 3 is supposed to make that sprint in the same amount of time!

Now, IF Tesla has made available a defeat traction control software selection, I promise never to use it when my wife is in the car, and I will refer her to a thread that says it is a natural tendency for RWD Tesla's rear tires to wear out faster. I'm sure it has nothing to do with having a powerful RWD car and showing off! :D
You mean, like this? :smilingimp:
 
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garsh

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#66
The standard marketing approach is to stress the positives rather than the negatives. So you'd choose a term for SR that stresses the efficiency, nimbleness, etc from the ~7% reduced vehicle mass rather than the reduced range. ;)
They should have called it the Model 3 Superlight .
 

garsh

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#67
Tangential question for @garsh: if you end up going with AWD, how would that decision affect your choice of wheel / tire setup (if at all)? Would you still go with staggered wheels? Summer/winter tires?
No change. I'm still planning on ordering the 18s, replacing those tires with winter tires once I wear down the original tires, then buying a staggered set of wheels for summer (either 18s or 19s).
 

SoFlaModel3

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#69
The amount you earn extra on resale will not be equivalent to $9k (+ interest!). Or even close to that. LR will depreciate, just like the rest of the car. You're not going to go onto a used car lot five years from now and see SRs going for $11k and LRs going for $20k.

Just for fun, I went and looked up the Blue Book value for Model Ss from 5 years ago (zip "90210" ;) ). A 2013 Model S from a private seller in very good condition with the 60kWh pack goes for $42745 on average. With the 85kWh pack? $44856. $2k residual on a $10k option. The difference in price between the S85 and the S60 was 15% when they were new; now it's only 5%. The pack option has depreciated much faster than the car.

Yes, I expect more of a percentage difference between SR and LR. But if you expect that you're recovering anywhere near what you put in when you sell your car, you're kidding yourself.

Meanwhile, $9k, invested in the market with an average 5% annual return, becomes $11250. So nearly a third the base price of your next Model 3-class vehicle. A Y? A pickup? Hey, whatever you want. Or think about it this way: you need to save up more money for your next car because you spent more on the LR and don't have that extra $11250 on hand. So if you spent, say $49k with all options instead of $40k, and $40k would have saved up for your next car in five years, that means you're saving $8k per year. So you have to hang onto your LR for an extra 1 1/3 years to be able to afford your next car. Meaning you suffer another couple thousand dollars in depreciation. Aka, the residual value of your LR pack.

Options are not investments. Buy what you need, and only what you need.
I would never call anything car related an investment, but my bigger point is that when more EVs but the market range numbers will swell and a used car with a max daily usable range of 198 less degradation may be hurt much more.
 

TheTony

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#70
I would never call anything car related an investment, but my bigger point is that when more EVs but the market range numbers will swell and a used car with a max daily usable range of 198 less degradation may be hurt much more.
And this effect will be more pronounced in climates with harsh winters, as usable range will vary widely from that point, by season.
 

KGTES

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#71
The info about air suspension coming with dual motor comes from Musk, in a tweet months ago. So you know... maybe 75% chance of being accurate. ;)

(I understand from friends in the states that the Flying Tomato burned down many years ago - are you familiar enough with the Denton area to remember it?)
@KarenRei Ah yes, fond memories, I graduated from UNT and frequented Flying Tomatoes many times, Denton has changed over the years and is booming, as is the rest of DFW.

By the way, you made some excellent points about AWD vs RWD, I was leaning AWD, mostly for road trips to NE and the extra range/acceleration etc., none of which is really needed here in Dallas :), but I guess, like @garsh , this is more like a semi mid-life crisis kind of situation, or so I keep telling myself.

Having said all that, I had decided on RWD LR only due to the possibility of losing partial/full rebate when AWD comes around, but with the recent delay, there is now at least a possibility of AWD coming with full rebate (for me, Mar-May updated timeline for my 3/31 in-store reservation), so I am back to considering AWD.

Anybody care to venture their guess on possibility of still getting the full $7500 credit for AWD LR for my Mar-May timeframe?
 

EBMCS03

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#72
Anybody care to venture their guess on possibility of still getting the full $7500 credit for AWD LR for my Mar-May timeframe?

Just hold off till sept and see. You will hear about when they hit 200k and when the cut off will be. Place your order accordingly as news come out.
 

GDN

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#73
@KarenRei Ah yes, fond memories, I graduated from UNT and frequented Flying Tomatoes many times, Denton has changed over the years and is booming, as is the rest of DFW.

By the way, you made some excellent points about AWD vs RWD, I was leaning AWD, mostly for road trips to NE and the extra range/acceleration etc., none of which is really needed here in Dallas :), but I guess, like @garsh , this is more like a semi mid-life crisis kind of situation, or so I keep telling myself.

Having said all that, I had decided on RWD LR only due to the possibility of losing partial/full rebate when AWD comes around, but with the recent delay, there is now at least a possibility of AWD coming with full rebate (for me, Mar-May updated timeline for my 3/31 in-store reservation), so I am back to considering AWD.

Anybody care to venture their guess on possibility of still getting the full $7500 credit for AWD LR for my Mar-May timeframe?
Are you sure you have a Mar-May date for AWD? I don't think anyone has seen a date like that. That is likely your date for First Production. Make sure you go look at the updated pages (last 2 weeks) and refresh if you stay logged in. Then look at First Production, SR and AWD dates.
 

OrangeJulius

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#74
It occurs to me that with the standard range model deliveries being pushed back to begin later than the AWD model deliveries, the final customer price of the "$35,000" model may NOT be able to take advantage of the full, heavily touted U.S. tax advantage (and perhaps none of the incrementally reduced offerings either.)
I believe that the tax advantage may well be the only thing that was allowing the Model 3's final price to fit in many reservation holder's budgets; if it's gone, so are they and their orders.
 
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Michael Russo

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#75
It occurs to me that with the standard range model deliveries being pushed back to begin later than the AWD model deliveries, the final customer price of the "$35,000" model may NOT be able to take advantage of the full, heavily touted U.S. tax advantage (...)
For me the jury is still out... y’all may be really thankful for those earlier Canadian deliveries when the year ends!! ;)
 

SoFlaModel3

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#76
It occurs to me that with the standard range model deliveries being pushed back to begin later than the AWD model deliveries, the final customer price of the "$35,000" model may NOT be able to take advantage of the full, heavily touted U.S. tax advantage (and perhaps none of the incrementally reduced offerings either.)
I believe that the tax advantage may well be the only thing that was allowing the Model 3's final price to fit in many reservation holder's budgets; if it's gone, so are they and their orders.
It’s important to note that unlike the S and X before it, the price of the 3 has always been presented “before incentives”. Meanwhile the federal credit in the US almost went away for everyone as of 12/31/2017. We got very lucky that it was saved.

I’m sure Tesla is trying to do the right thing by as many people as possible, but with their capital spend making the highest margin vehicles possible seems essential especially while production volume remains relatively low.
 
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Ct200h

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#77
Many reservation holders were planning exactly for the base model , give or take an option and getting the full $7,500

I think this fact is pretty obvious and some will drop off when they realize they will get neither a 35k 3 or a $ 7.5k credit .
 

Michael Russo

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#78
Many reservation holders were planning exactly for the base model , give or take an option and getting the full $7,500

I think this fact is pretty obvious and some will drop off when they realize they will get neither a 35k 3 or a $ 7.5k credit .
See #75 above. Ditto.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#79
Many reservation holders were planning exactly for the base model , give or take an option and getting the full $7,500

I think this fact is pretty obvious and some will drop off when they realize they will get neither a 35k 3 or a $ 7.5k credit .
I’m sure that’s reasonable to expect and those consumers may opt for a Bolt instead.
 

Michael Russo

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#80