I've changed my mind - First Production

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garsh

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#1

I think I'm now going to wait for AWD. Of course, I may change my mind based on any new information we obtain. But my thinking is:
  • With Canadian deliveries happening in mid 2018, Tesla may be trying to push the 200,000 U.S. delivery threshold into July. If that happens, then the full federal rebate will be available through the end of 2018.
  • If Tesla provides more information about Full Self Driving before I order the car (something more than just another one-off demonstration), then I may choose to order the car with FSD. Waiting to order the car gives them more time to convince me to purchase the upgrade.
We'll see what happens.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#2

I think I'm now going to wait for AWD. Of course, I may change my mind based on any new information we obtain. But my thinking is:
  • With Canadian deliveries happening in mid 2018, Tesla may be trying to push the 200,000 U.S. delivery threshold into July. If that happens, then the full federal rebate will be available through the end of 2018.
  • If Tesla provides more information about Full Self Driving before I order the car (something more than just another one-off demonstration), then I may choose to order the car with FSD. Waiting to order the car gives them more time to convince me to purchase the upgrade.
We'll see what happens.
From what I've seen RWD Tesla + snow tires gives you everything you need in snow. I'm not sure the Dual Motor is entirely worth the extra cost (assuming it's $5k).
 

Brokedoc

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#3
I think I'm now going to wait for AWD. Of course, I may change my mind based on any new information we obtain. But my thinking is:
  • With Canadian deliveries happening in mid 2018, Tesla may be trying to push the 200,000 U.S. delivery threshold into July. If that happens, then the full federal rebate will be available through the end of 2018.
  • If Tesla provides more information about Full Self Driving before I order the car (something more than just another one-off demonstration), then I may choose to order the car with FSD. Waiting to order the car gives them more time to convince me to purchase the upgrade.
We'll see what happens.
Tesla is still planning on doing their coast to coast FSD demo this year. There is supposedly a major EAP upgrade in 2018. I will believe it when I see it. HOWEVER if you DO buy EAP or FSD at the time of the vehicle, you can also wrap it into your loan payments aside from saving $1k before delivery. DO keep in mind that if you total the car before FSD ever gets activated (or if the politicians drag their feet in passing autonomous driving laws) then you lose the money without ever having used the feature.
 

GDN

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#4
I'll ask here since you are considering dual motor, what is the appeal for the AWD and dual motor - strictly traction and winter driving? I ask because I haven't seen anyone discuss it here, but I'm quite certain I remember reading a few years back about the S dual motor having longer range. The concept is one motor is less powerful and at cruising speeds it would use that motor thus gaining range. Does that thought process come into decision making when you look at the AWD or simply for adverse weather conditions?
 
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MelindaV

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#6
From what I've seen RWD Tesla + snow tires gives you everything you need in snow. I'm not sure the Dual Motor is entirely worth the extra cost (assuming it's $5k).
hands down I would pay $5k for the dual motor option if delivery schedule was all the same, and I don't drive in the snow at all.
BUT since LR single motor is what is first available, I will happily take it. For that matter, if the base $35k was the first available, I very likely would seriously consider it.
 

sreams

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#9
I think dual motor is more worth it than the ridiculous $9k for 90 miles.
$9K for 90 miles, more power, faster charging, and likely much greater battery pack longevity (fewer charge cycles for the same miles driven). Yes, the upcharge is likely near triple Tesla's cost for the extra kWh, but you definitely get more than just an extra 90 miles.

Also... remember that with the Model S, it is $19,500 for an extra 76 miles of range. With the Model 3, you get nearly the same range as the S that starts at $94,000.
 
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SoFlaModel3

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#10
hands down I would pay $5k for the dual motor option if delivery schedule was all the same, and I don't drive in the snow at all.
BUT since LR single motor is what is first available, I will happily take it. For that matter, if the base $35k was the first available, I very likely would seriously consider it.
Certainly not challenging yours (or anyone else's viewpoint), but just curious to get a better understanding for why?

Dual motor isn't just about traction in inclement weather. It's also about efficiency and power.
Yes, but at a steep cost of potentially $5k (granted we don't know exactly how much it will be on Model 3).

I think dual motor is more worth it than the ridiculous $9k for 90 miles.
The $9k for long range battery gets you 90 miles, better acceleration, faster supercharging, and 20,000 more miles of battery warranty. Doesn't the "D" just add ~10 miles of range. At least on Model S, that's what the difference was from 75 to 75D I think.

Given that and purely looking at the range bump...
  • $9,000 / 90 miles of range is $100/1 mile of range
  • $5,000 / 10 miles of range is $500/1 mile of range
I would be inclined to call dual motor ridiculous if range is the only measure (which its not).
 

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#11
I haven't made up my mind between RWD and AWD. Would also love to see some more discussion on the merits of each.
We've had this discussion before and it turned into a fight. But I'll sum up:

1) Yes, "good tires" matters more than AWD, but most people in winter climates already put good tires on their cars. It's not an "OR" case, it's a "PLUS" case. Extra traction always matters in icy conditions.

2) I regularly drive a truck that can switch between AWD and RWD. The difference on slippery surfaces is like night and day. For fun I'll drive around the same corner on a block when it's icy in RWD, have the accelerator deliberately too far down on the turn, and I fishtail like crazy. Second time around, AWD, I just slide wide but there's no fishtailing at all. AWD is a serious help in icy conditions.

3) You'll sometimes hear people assert "the data doesn't support AWD being safer". They're wrong.

4) In the specific case of Teslas, you can force an AWD Tesla to revert to RWD to compare. Here's what happens:

Please don't interpret this as "RWD Teslas are poor in snow". They absolutely aren't. But I think Björn Nyland put it best: he stated that in the beginning, when Tesla only offered RWD Ss, he and all of his friends kept singing their praises - about how awesome they were in snow, and how you didn't even need AWD!" But then Tesla came out with AWD, and he watched them one by one switch over to it, and their tune greatly changed ;) Take from that what you will.

AWD does nothing for braking (but you're an idiot if you brake hard on icy roads regardless). What AWD does is:

1) Halves the drive force on each wheel. The coefficient of static friction remains constant, so you have to double the drive force to lose traction. Note that this doesn't simply apply to acceleration; in bad conditions, the drive force from even maintaining speed can cause wheel slip (don't forget that it takes the car 10-20 kW of traction power to maintain speed... that's all getting transferred to the wheels).

2) The coefficient of static friction varies greatly across a road. If you double the number of drive wheels, you double the number of grip patches. This means that you have to go into a slide on two (not one) drive wheels on the same side to not have balanced thrust, and four rather than two to not have any drive wheels with traction.

3) Drive wheels maintaining traction matters. Drive wheels generally lose traction before non-drive wheels, because you're applying more force to them. So for example, if I'm going around a corner with too much throttle in my pickup in RWD, the rear tires lose traction, the front maintain it, and so the rear wheels spin around (fishtailing). This is much worse than losing traction roughly evenly on all wheels.

I'll reiterate: AWD doesn't help you with braking. But it helps with everything else. Spread that drive force around!

(and to also reiterate: let's leave off the old "use good winter tires instead" canard, because up north we already use good winter tires.)
 
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Michael Russo

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#12
@KarenRei , I think you again made a very strong case for the overall many benefits for AWD on most challenging road conditions and I totally concur with your reasoning...
I also liked your last point about the ‘canard’ (not sure everybody knows that this word means ‘duck’ and refers to the AFAIK French expression ‘Tordre le cou à un canard’, which literally means ‘wring a duck’s head’ yet would better translate today as ‘debikk’ :) - Amazed you know French too! On the content of course you are right because of the world ‘instead’.... The corollary of course is to remind folks that using ‘good’ winter tires (yes, they do work better than bad ones... ;)) is recommended for ALL cars under 7degC/45degF.

It is clear this debate resurfaces because of the delays for AWD & the uncertainties on extra cost... Obviously some are getting antsy; I think it is important though for everyone to make the right choice according to needs/wants and budget for a car the vast majority will keep for a (very) long time...

I feel your input helps there.
 

garsh

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#13
I'll ask here since you are considering dual motor, what is the appeal for the AWD and dual motor - strictly traction and winter driving?
Nope. The appeal is to be able to smoke all of the RWD Teslas at stop light drag races. :)

No, seriously, that's basically it. I'm ready for my mid-life-crisis car.
 

garsh

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#15
I mean....you can find P85D's in the high 60's if thats the case.....
Sure, but that's not my only consideration. :)

I'd also like 310+ miles of range. And I'd like the slightly smaller car. EDIT: and FSD in the future.

Anyhow, I may change my mind yet again. Once I receive an invite, I'm free to bail on this decision and just place an order for First Production at any point in time. If that wasn't the case, then I wouldn't consider waiting.
 
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JohnMon

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#16
Thank you @KarenRei, that's the type of information I was hoping for. I especially like item #4, the example about the guys much preferring AWD, having had experience with RWD previously.

I quite agree with your comments about winter tires. In some Canadian provinces, such as Quebec, it's against the law not to use winter tires in the winter.

I'm pretty sure you have convinced me to get the AWD option, assuming it becomes available before we lose our Ontario rebate. If I can only get the rebate with RWD because of timing, I'll likely get it, then trade it in for AWD on a 3 or the Y after a couple of years.

About comparing a pickup truck to a Tesla, I had a conversation with our used Tesla inventory manager (extremely knowledgeable fellow), when I was considering a used S as I waited for the 3, who cautioned me not to compare RWD on a Tesla to an ICE car because the weight distribution was so much more equitable on a Tesla. Hence my uncertainty to this point and my appreciation for your point#4.

Appreciate you taking the time to provide your views, and in such a clear manner.
 

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#17
The $9k for long range battery gets you 90 miles, better acceleration, faster supercharging, and 20,000 more miles of battery warranty. Doesn't the "D" just add ~10 miles of range. At least on Model S, that's what the difference was from 75 to 75D I think.

Given that and purely looking at the range bump...
  • $9,000 / 90 miles of range is $100/1 mile of range
  • $5,000 / 10 miles of range is $500/1 mile of range
I would be inclined to call dual motor ridiculous if range is the only measure (which its not).
Personally I don’t need the extra 90miles.

Better acceleration yes. I agree.

Faster supercharging? I thought supercharging rate is the same. And only difference is at home charging which I will not even install a 48A L2 charger, so no use to me. Not sure how many breaker boxes can take 48A without doing a overhaul. When I’m charging at home the speed is not an issue.

Better warranty and longer batter longevity? I never keep my cars that long so it’s not something I’ll take advantage of. Something else will probably break long before the battery.

So $9k is not worth it to me for the LR. For $5k extra I wouldn’t complain.

Hence I rather have dual motor for $5k than $9k for “bigger battery”
 

garsh

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#18
About comparing a pickup truck to a Tesla, I had a conversation with our used Tesla inventory manager (extremely knowledgeable fellow), when I was considering a used S as I waited for the 3, who cautioned me not to compare RWD on a Tesla to an ICE car because the weight distribution was so much more equitable on a Tesla. Hence my uncertainty to this point and my appreciation for your point#4.
In particular, because of the even weight distribution of an electric car, a RWD electric car should be *better* in snow than a FWD electric car. Wrap your brain around that, after all these decades of being taught (rightfully) that FWD was better in snow than RWD.

Previous thread on the topic of AWD and snow tires:
Worried About Snow? Don't Dismiss Getting Rear Wheel Drive!
 

garsh

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#19
Personally I don’t need the extra 90miles.
Be careful about thinking of it as just an extra 90 miles of range.

Let's say you get a standard range Model 3. That's an advertised 220 miles of range.
  • it's best to not regularly charge it to 100%, so you'll probably only charge to 90%. Now you're down to 198 miles of range.
  • Is it really cold today? Then you're probably down another 10% in range compared to a warm day. 178 miles.
  • Did it snow? Are the roads slush-covered? That can easily zap up to another 20% of range. 142 miles.
  • Do you have charging available at your destination? Do you have to go out of your way a little to hit a supercharger?
Since you live in California, you probably don't have to put up with too much of this. But for anybody who puts up with inclement weather, that extra range is a whole lot of peace-of-mind.
 

EBMCS03

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#20
Be careful about thinking of it as just an extra 90 miles of range.

Let's say you get a standard range Model 3. That's an advertised 220 miles of range.
  • it's best to not regularly charge it to 100%, so you'll probably only charge to 90%. Now you're down to 198 miles of range.
  • Is it really cold today? Then you're probably down another 10% in range compared to a warm day. 178 miles.
  • Did it snow? Are the roads slush-covered? That can easily zap up to another 20% of range. 142 miles.
  • Do you have charging available at your destination? Do you have to go out of your way a little to hit a supercharger?
Since you live in California, you probably don't have to put up with too much of this. But for anybody who puts up with inclement weather, that extra range is a whole lot of peace-of-mind.
Correct. Ya. Problem is. It’s my situation that makes the $9k def not worth it for me.

I will prob take another car for long road trips. My daily use is about 35 miles round trip for work. Don’t normally drive more than 30-50 miles radius away from home. So it’s sad that Tesla is forcing the LR on ppl only. I totally understand the business point of view.