Inside EVs estimating 1875 Model 3s delivered in January

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PTC Gator

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#3
Disappointing, yes. I think "really bad" is a matter of perspective. We tend to work ourselves into a bit of a lather here and expectations take a life of their own. I think we all hope for better, but we should be willing to accept that reality isn't always cooperative.
 

McHoffa

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#4
Disappointing, yes. I think "really bad" is a matter of perspective. We tend to work ourselves into a bit of a lather here and expectations take a life of their own. I think we all hope for better, but we should be willing to accept that reality isn't always cooperative.
I think (thanks to Tesla's own wording about end of year production rates) that everyone was expecting them to be doing 1000 per week now. 420 per week is WAY below that, and puts them really far behind on the ramp up. 2500 per week by end of March is looking really unlikely.

Also, this means that first 6 months of production of the Model 3 is slightly lower than first 6 months of production of the Model S and barely higher than first 6 months of Model X production. Pretty sure everyone thought that they would easily blow away Model S production numbers.
 

Mjp462

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#5
Disappointing, yes. I think "really bad" is a matter of perspective. We tend to work ourselves into a bit of a lather here and expectations take a life of their own. I we all hope for better, but we should be willing to accept that reality isn't always cooperative.
My expectations are solely based on what Tesla tells me. Expectations taking on a life of their own would be ppl who think Tesla will produce <200k Model 3's in 2018. Let's see what Elon reports, but I've only heard bad news regarding the ramp since Sept 2017. Every goal has been missed...by a lot. Please forgive my pessimism.
 

RunCycle

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#7
I think (thanks to Tesla's own wording about end of year production rates) that everyone was expecting them to be doing 1000 per week now. 420 per week is WAY below that, and puts them really far behind on the ramp up. 2500 per week by end of March is looking really unlikely.
Deliveries are not production. The cars delivered in January were built in in December and maybe the first week or so of January. So it is a reflection of the production 3-5 weeks ago instead of production today. They could be closer to 1000/wk production now. In fact, the spreadsheet is estimating a production of 900 for the last 7 days.
 

sabonis

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#9
I agree. I do wish they were at 5k+ a week, but it's not easy. They set lofty goals to push towards. No good leader/industry disruptor is going to set the worst-case scenario goals. Sure, Tesla never seems to hit the best-case goals, but it is what it is. Too many people on this forum are freaking out. I see so many comments here and in Facebook groups just whining. "OMG, a sales rep told me I should be able to configure by the end of my window, and my window said Nov - Jan. It's now Feb 1. THEY ARE LIARS. BLATANT LIARS! WHY ARE THEY DECEIVING ME!?" L O L.

Disappointing, yes. I think "really bad" is a matter of perspective. We tend to work ourselves into a bit of a lather here and expectations take a life of their own. I think we all hope for better, but we should be willing to accept that reality isn't always cooperative.
 

tonymil

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#11
If true, this is really bad news. We will see when Tesla reports in a few days.
I would replace "bad" with "horrible". IF this is true, and I certainly hope it isn't, Elon lied to the general public, to the media, to reservation holders/depositors,and to investors. He said this about current production - not future production:

In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3's, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week.
http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1053245
 

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#13
In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3's, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week.
This exactly. They "hit," does not say sustained. They also use the word "extrapolates." Without further guidance, you don't know if that was from 1 hour, 1 day or 6 days. It was basically just a top speed they were able to reach.

IMO, too much was made of this statement and expectations got a little out of touch with reality.
 

sabonis

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#14
L O L

I agree. I do wish they were at 5k+ a week, but it's not easy. They set lofty goals to push towards. No good leader/industry disruptor is going to set the worst-case scenario goals. Sure, Tesla never seems to hit the best-case goals, but it is what it is. Too many people on this forum are freaking out. I see so many comments here and in Facebook groups just whining. "OMG, a sales rep told me I should be able to configure by the end of my window, and my window said Nov - Jan. It's now Feb 1. THEY ARE LIARS. BLATANT LIARS! WHY ARE THEY DECEIVING ME!?" L O L.
I would replace "bad" with "horrible". IF this is true, and I certainly hope it isn't, Elon lied to the general public, to the media, to reservation holders/depositors,and to investors. He said this about current production - not future production:

In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3's, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week.
http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1053245
 

tonymil

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#15
This exactly. They "hit," does not say sustained. They also use the word "extrapolates." Without further guidance, you don't know if that was from 1 hour, 1 day or 6 days. It was basically just a top speed they were able to reach.

IMO, too much was made of this statement and expectations got a little out of touch with reality.
His statement was structured to imply steady increasing numbers FROM the 793 to 1,000 per week range. Here are his Model 3 comments in order:

  • Q4 production totaled 24,565 vehicles, of which 2,425 were Model 3.
  • During Q4, we made major progress addressing Model 3 production bottlenecks, with our production rate increasing significantly towards the end of the quarter.
  • In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3's, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week.
  • As a result of the significant growth in our production rate, we made as many Model 3's since December 9th as we did in the more than four months of Model 3 production up to that point.
  • we expect to have a slightly more gradual ramp through Q1...
  • ...likely ending the quarter at a weekly rate of about 2,500 Model 3 vehicles.
  • We intend to achieve the 5,000 per week milestone by the end of Q2
It is presented as a progression. This is where we were, this is where we are, this is where we will be. No indication that the 793/1,000 per week was an "outlier" or non-representative. Rather those numbers were presented as current production upon which Tesla is building and which would get it to its goals of 2,500 per week and 5,000 per week at the stated times. Elon cannot avoid the significance of the words he and Tesla chose.
.​
 

McHoffa

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#16
This exactly. They "hit," does not say sustained. They also use the word "extrapolates." Without further guidance, you don't know if that was from 1 hour, 1 day or 6 days. It was basically just a top speed they were able to reach.

IMO, too much was made of this statement and expectations got a little out of touch with reality.
expectations have mainly come from Tesla/Elon.

First it was 100k-200k would be made by the end of 2017.
Then it was "5,000 per week by end of 2017"
Then it was "thousands per week by end of 2017"
Then it was "we hit 1000 per week in the last few days or 2017" and "we'll hit 2500 per week by end of March and 5000 per week by end of June"

Now? Still not looking like they are at 1,000 per week. I LOVE the car still, but I'm no longer holding my breath, and not expecting my December-February car until April at the earliest. I've become a pessimist (anyone can go back to posts from pre-October and see that I was positive I would have my car by December).
 
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#17
While I agree it's not ideal, a couple of things to keep in mine:
  • Deliveries are not production, if there is a similar number of cars in transit at 1/31/18 compared to 12/31/17 (~750, could be conservative) then that would put January production north of 2,600 vehicles. That is more than they made in all of Q4, so definitely progress.
  • Doesn't Tesla close the factory the first week of January to make up for the intense production/sales goals over the holiday season? If so, then I'm not really concerned because that would really impact production totals in January.
  • The Model 3 was the highest selling electric vehicle in January 2017. While we're not where we hoped to be, still impressive Tesla can take a car from first production to the highest volume vehicle in a little over 6 months.
 
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#18
Since Tesla only reports numbers quarterly, InsideEVs estimates S, X, and 3 numbers for the first two months of each quarter, and then uses "(Tesla's quarterly total) minus (InsideEVs estimate for Month 1) - (InsideEVs estimate for Month 2)" to calculate the number for the 3rd month in each quarter. (InsideEVs documents this approach in the footnote to the first table.) Since InsideEVs estimates Month 1 and Month 2 of each quarter very low, Month 3 of each quarter spikes up to make the sum of the three months equal Tesla's quarterly number.

Look at the 2nd table on the page linked above (for prior year) to see this effect. For both Model S and Model X, January and February were estimated low, so March was significantly higher. April and May were estimated low, so June was significantly higher, July and August were estimated low so September was significantly higher. For October and November, Model 3 estimates join in the pattern with S and X, underestimated in those two months and hence jumping up in December to reconcile with Tesla's quarterly number. I would expect that InsideEVs estimates for January 2018 to follow the same pattern, for Model S, Model X, and of course for Model 3 as well. So their estimation of 1,875 Model 3s in January 2018 should be viewed as quite conservative.
 
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Michael Russo

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#19
Key take away from a couple of posts above truly resonate with me: Deliveries are not equal to production...

Let us chill a bit and also highlight the progress in Model 3 monthly sales. @sabonis , you are correct, we all need to learn not to overreact to every little bit of news. Key at this point is wrapping up owners deliveries and moving on to non-owners invites with the next several weeks.

Call me an optimist, yet I do believe tesla will be at 2500/weeks by 3/31... :cool:
 

mbrucem

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#20
Key take away from a couple of posts above truly resonate with me: Deliveries are not equal to production...

Let us chill a bit and also highlight the progress in Model 3 monthly sales. @sabonis , you are correct, we all need to learn not to overreact to every little bit of news. Key at this point is wrapping up owners deliveries and moving on to non-owners invites with the next several weeks.

Call me an optimist, yet I do believe tesla will be at 2500/weeks by 3/31... :cool:
I have cash on hand to buy stock if the dip happens! Wall Street is worried about quarters, Elon is only worried about saving the world and colonization of another, and selling flamethrowers (I mean, digging tunnels). The market value will go up in my mind.