How to estimate when my Model 3 would be built.

  • SUPPORT THE SITE AND ENJOY A PREMIUM EXPERIENCE!
    Welcome to Tesla Owners Online, four years young! For a low subscription fee, you will receive access to an ad-free version of TOO. We now offer yearly memberships! You can subscribe via this direct link:
    https://teslaownersonline.com/account/upgrades

    SUBSCRIBE TO OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL!
    Did you know we have a YouTube channel that's all about Tesla? Lots of Tesla information, fun, vlogs, product reviews, and a weekly Tesla Owners Online Podcast as well!

samson

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2017
Messages
314
Location
Detroit MI
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#21
The link just crashed. too many people accessing it.

man I wonder what we would all do after we all get our own Model 3.

I am guessing a forum complains, stories, upgrades etc
 

Michael Russo

MSM Team Founder, Midnight S≡R≡NITY rider
Moderator
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2016
Messages
5,821
Location
Pau, France
Tesla Owner
Model S
Country
Country
#22
(...)
man I wonder what we would all do after we all get our own Model 3. (...)
Don't forget, we're at least a couple of years away from that moment... We'll cross that bridge when we get there... And even more than now... we'll be the Model ≡ Owners Club! Yeah!! :D
 

Michael Russo

MSM Team Founder, Midnight S≡R≡NITY rider
Moderator
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2016
Messages
5,821
Location
Pau, France
Tesla Owner
Model S
Country
Country
#24
ok - so when ALL except for Michael Russo who should have reserved earlier ;)
Ouch... This is painful... yet so true!! If you only knew why I did not... I'd get you all to feel emotional, or really hate me... :confused:

On an equally sobering note, I tried the estimator and, with EU (excl. UK) location, reservation on 10/10/16 at 22:00 hr, I get March 18, 2019 for a 55D and... March 24, 2019 for a 55 RWD... so essentially no difference between the 2 by then; date is still about the same as what I always anticipated... Did I do it right?

Also, does a new reservation placed in California today still get estimated delivery during 4Q18, i.e. before me, like you showed us lady February, @MelindaV ?
I imagine the tool does not account for potential reservation cancellations right, which its designer has no way of knowing, correct?
 

samson

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2017
Messages
314
Location
Detroit MI
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#25
Shows end of March 2018 for me if I chose AWD 75 and end of Feb is I chose RWD 75 (Canada, March 31 @ 9:45AM). I'm good either way :)

It cant be right because
if I chose AWD 75 its April end 2018 and end of Dec 2017 if I chose RWD 75 (USA eastern, March 31 @ 8:29 PM PCT)

Does it mean that Tesla might fulfill some Canada orders made in store before USA orders?

Another spiteful thing according to this database is If I made an instore order versus online order the earliest difference I would get is a matter of 2 days. 15th may for instore and 17th May for online.
 

Gary Moore

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 10, 2016
Messages
225
Location
Mountain House, CA
Country
Country
#26
The aforementioned sheet now says I'll have my Three in October. (My own plan sheet has said November 28, 2017 since almost a year ago, and there's a brand new NEMA 14-50 in the garage wall as of this month, right next to my "Tesla Parking Only" poster.)

Having lived as a project manager, I take everything with a grain of salt. (My cardiologist hates that, but I claim that it kills harmful bacteria. I have been in intensive care from harmful bacteria -- I've already seen them install that blood port in my shoulder outside emergency on the hospital driveway, and once is enough.)

As Don Schlitz wrote in The Gambler, "..the secret to survivin' is knowin' what to throw away, and knowin' what to keep..."

Elon Musk is working on living in the future. This is a very good idea, because I hear that this is were all of future living will likely take place. Things in the future won't look quite the same as everyone may have imagined.

Living in the future is not exactly easy, since most people can't quite exactly tell where it is in time that they currently are living right now.

(I want to wish those folks working on coal-powered cars the best of luck. They have such great need for it.)

Not knowing is very important. Trying hard to ignore that area just won't make it go away.
 

Michael Russo

MSM Team Founder, Midnight S≡R≡NITY rider
Moderator
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2016
Messages
5,821
Location
Pau, France
Tesla Owner
Model S
Country
Country
#27
(...) Does it mean that Tesla might fulfill some Canada orders made in store before USA orders? (...)
No, no, no, @samson , it's a very special, accelerated delivery for Sir Trevor (@TrevP ) for services rendered... :D
Oh, and Palo Alto just called via Neuralink: @Kennethbokor 's car is on same truck!! :cool:
 

Dangermouse

Active member
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Apr 27, 2016
Messages
140
Location
Raleigh, NC
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#28
No, no, no, @samson , it's a very special, accelerated delivery for Sir Trevor (@TrevP ) for services rendered... :D
Oh, and Palo Alto just called via Neuralink: @Kennethbokor 's car is on same truck!! :cool:
First trip - Canada, to let Trevor drive my car around for a few hours. Pending weather of course.
 

MelindaV

☰ > 3
Moderator
Joined
Apr 2, 2016
Messages
10,321
Location
Vancouver, WA
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#29
Ouch... This is painful... yet so true!! If you only knew why I did not... I'd get you all to feel emotional, or really hate me... :confused:

On an equally sobering note, I tried the estimator and, with EU (excl. UK) location, reservation on 10/10/16 at 22:00 hr, I get March 18, 2019 for a 55D and... March 24, 2019 for a 55 RWD... so essentially no difference between the 2 by then; date is still about the same as what I always anticipated... Did I do it right?

Also, does a new reservation placed in California today still get estimated delivery during 4Q18, i.e. before me, like you showed us lady February, @MelindaV ?
I imagine the tool does not account for potential reservation cancellations right, which its designer has no way of knowing, correct?
is it to do with the new US Sec of State's prior employer?
If it makes you feel better Michael, I would have taken the morning off and gone into the store to order, but my dad was having back surgery (about the 4th by that point last year alone!) and had already planned to get out of the office a little early to go check in on him that evening. So I blame him for getting old and falling apart for my day tardy reservation ;)
I think Troy said the latest iteration does not take into account cnx'd reservations, but the prior version did.
personally, the way Troy is calculating some of the things I don't agree with, but still think his is the best guess out there currently.
If I was the excel wiz that he obviously is, I think I would have not broken down the delivery batches quite so much.
IE I ordered in the wee hours of April 1st - after 'not sleeping on it', and the difference between a late 3/31 vs a very early 4/1 makes a significant difference. Personally, I think Tesla will take more of a generalized first weekend batch that is then divided regionally instead of "before noon", then "before reveal in store", then "evening in store", then "on line during event", then "online after event", then "next day", etc, etc. each with a Cal, West, Mtn, Central, East, etc queue as he is doing... Being west coast, I really don't think the guy that ordered at 4 hours before me on the east coast will be up for config/delivery months prior to me on the west coast with a similar build.
(but I also think there'll be a HUD, so take that as it is - sorry Topher for pushing the whole HUD fiction ;) )
 

JBsC6

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 17, 2016
Messages
381
Location
Northern NJ
Country
Country
#34
I don't remember the hour of the day I ordered..but I believe it was April 2nd as it shows up..

If I can get the awd performance model before June 30th I'll be happy.

I'm probably about the 250000 order placed..

If it's not by June 30th..no biggie...

Just an extra 3750 by my best guess.

You snooze you loose...lol I lost by test driving the model S once more before ordering..
 

JWardell

TOO Master Member
Joined
May 9, 2016
Messages
4,119
Location
Boston
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#35
The estimator puts my delivery...on my birthday! OK, I'll take it :D

Note the date doesn't change if I select 55 or 75. I will probably go with 55 if that is true and put the money towards tech.

 

samson

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2017
Messages
314
Location
Detroit MI
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#36
The estimator puts my delivery...on my birthday! OK, I'll take it :D

Note the date doesn't change if I select 55 or 75. I will probably go with 55 if that is true and put the money towards tech.

View attachment 1154

Do we think that tesla configurator will show estimated delivery during ordering process as and when we select the options and battery pack. just like the Model S and Model X right now.

that will really help in the decision process.
 

TrevP

TOO Founder / Administrator
Founder
Joined
Oct 20, 2015
Messages
7,059
Location
Toronto
Tesla Owner
Model 3
Country
Country
#37
The estimator puts my delivery...on my birthday! OK, I'll take it :D

Note the date doesn't change if I select 55 or 75. I will probably go with 55 if that is true and put the money towards tech.

View attachment 1154
Battery size should't affect the date especially if they ramp up production quickly. Notice Elon only said AWD and P were the main reasons for the "delay"
 

Steve C

Well-known member
TOO Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 28, 2016
Messages
370
Location
Toronto
Country
Country
#38
Battery size should't affect the date especially if they ramp up production quickly. Notice Elon only said AWD and P were the main reasons for the "delay"
Lets hope that he at least has a few versions of them all built so we can have the Specs etc for the final reveal.
 

Rick59

Top-Contributor
Joined
Jul 20, 2016
Messages
553
Location
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Tesla Owner
Model X
Country
Country
#40
is it to do with the new US Sec of State's prior employer?
If it makes you feel better Michael, I would have taken the morning off and gone into the store to order, but my dad was having back surgery (about the 4th by that point last year alone!) and had already planned to get out of the office a little early to go check in on him that evening. So I blame him for getting old and falling apart for my day tardy reservation ;)
I think Troy said the latest iteration does not take into account cnx'd reservations, but the prior version did.
personally, the way Troy is calculating some of the things I don't agree with, but still think his is the best guess out there currently.
If I was the excel wiz that he obviously is, I think I would have not broken down the delivery batches quite so much.
IE I ordered in the wee hours of April 1st - after 'not sleeping on it', and the difference between a late 3/31 vs a very early 4/1 makes a significant difference. Personally, I think Tesla will take more of a generalized first weekend batch that is then divided regionally instead of "before noon", then "before reveal in store", then "evening in store", then "on line during event", then "online after event", then "next day", etc, etc. each with a Cal, West, Mtn, Central, East, etc queue as he is doing... Being west coast, I really don't think the guy that ordered at 4 hours before me on the east coast will be up for config/delivery months prior to me on the west coast with a similar build.
(but I also think there'll be a HUD, so take that as it is - sorry Topher for pushing the whole HUD fiction ;) )
If there are four of us getting a Model 3 in Ottawa and we reserved within a month of each other, I think we'll all get our car at the same time: 1 truck, 1 driver and 4 local deliveries (if not at a centralized location.)