How to estimate when my Model 3 would be built.

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GM Points

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#1
I am thinking about putting in a reservation for a Model 3 for my wife. How do I figure out an estimate of when it would be built? She currently has about 34 months left on her lease so I wanted to try to figure out when to reserve the Model 3 so it would be built by the end of 2019. Any help would be appreciated. I am in California by the way.
 

BigBri

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#2
There is no real way of knowing that being said I'd imagine it'd be well before the end of 2019. You can delay a reservation though so if you throw one down now you can bump it. You'll get an email inviting you to submit a full order and at that time you can choose to bump it. The first full year or so of production is reserved so far so the soonest you'd see it would be mid to end 2018 but more likely early 2019
 

MelindaV

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#3
I am thinking about putting in a reservation for a Model 3 for my wife. How do I figure out an estimate of when it would be built? She currently has about 34 months left on her lease so I wanted to try to figure out when to reserve the Model 3 so it would be built by the end of 2019. Any help would be appreciated. I am in California by the way.
Welcome - you can try this un-official delivery estimator. It puts a new order at October 2018. In 34 months I would expect a Model 3 would be about a 1-2 month wait from the time an order is put in... so there is not a great advantage at this point in getting a deposit in.
screen-shot-2017-01-31-at-7-49-54-pm-png.938
 

Michael Russo

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#4
Welcome - you can try this un-official delivery estimator. It puts a new order at October 2018.(...)
View attachment 938
@MelindaV , interesting... thx for reminding us all of this... Since Elon stated last October they were essentially sold out until end 2018, this would suggest, if the tool is sufficiently related to current reality, that would mean, either:
- that CA/West Coast orders would still be privileged by then - possible, though not aware that was ever said...
- the # of reservations has barely moved since then... - not likely yet who knows
- there have been a substantial amount of cancellations - even less probable
... or some combination of the above !

Otherwise, a very possible alternative scenario for ETA of a Model ≡ reserved today would be mid-2019 at best... no?

Don't mean to discourage anyone. Maybe as is often the case, the truth will proved to be somewhere in between! :rainbow:
 

MelindaV

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#5
The Model 3 page currently says new reservations should expect delivery mid 2018 or later. I'd say oct 2018 fits with that.
 

Michael Russo

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#6
The Model 3 page currently says new reservations should expect delivery mid 2018 or later. I'd say oct 2018 fits with that.
@MelindaV , I know that is what the website says; guess it depends on how broadly one wants to define 'later'... :D
Something about the maths escapes me, allow me please to explain....
Elon said in October they were essentially sold out thru end 2018, with targets of 100k this year & 400k in 2018 (500k with Model S/X). This would nicely correlate with an est. 500k reservations by mid-4Q16... We are now about 3 months later... of course we don't know total number reserved as of now...
So... here's my plea: which one of the potential elements listed above do you folks think best explains how someone placing a reservation today could hope to see her/his car delivered within 18 months...
Of course, I also don't think anybody in our ever larger M3OC family (including me... ;-)) would complain about getting our dream car early...
What am I missing? :confused:
 

Steve C

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#7
@MelindaV , I know that is what the website says; guess it depends on how broadly one wants to define 'later'... :D
Something about the maths escapes me, allow me please to explain....
Elon said in October they were essentially sold out thru end 2018, with targets of 100k this year & 400k in 2018 (500k with Model S/X). This would nicely correlate with an est. 500k reservations by mid-4Q16... We are now about 3 months later... of course we don't know total number reserved as of now...
So... here's my plea: which one of the potential elements listed above do you folks think best explains how someone placing a reservation today could hope to see her/his car delivered within 18 months...
Of course, I also don't think anybody in our ever larger TOO family (including me... ;-)) would complain about getting our dream car early...
What am I missing? :confused:
What everyone is missing is the fact that there is over 1 million pre-orders :p

Wishful thinking, but I'm not too far off I think.
 

Jayc

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#10
Anything ordered now IMO is definitely a CY2019 delivery, probably 2H. No way for 2018.
That's what I was thinking. I ordered during EMs speech at the reveal and the predictor gives me an October 2018 estimate for UK delivery. If a new order today from US gets about the same delivery estimate that would be very unfair TBH.
 

Bobby Garrity

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#11
Just reserve it now. If you're not ready to buy it when it is ready, you can wait. Since you live in California you should be able to get it in time if you reserve it now, but you have no incentive to hold off on reserving.
 

MelindaV

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#13
I wonder when they're going to update the estimator given the new numbers Tesla is shooting for?
Troy that runs the google spreadsheet estimator did update it yesterday (twice), and overall think his is a pretty good ballpark, but do think there are some assumptions he's making that are not quite as I understand things. Specifically, he prioritizes all first day reservations before any made after midnight on 3/31/16. That's not exactly the info from Tesla put out there
In order to be as fair as possible, there will be a different queue for each region. And as a thank you to our current owners, existing customers will get priority in each region.
Model 3 production is scheduled to begin in late 2017. When production begins, we will begin deliveries in North America starting on the West Coast, moving east. As we continue to ramp production, we will begin deliveries in Europe, APAC and right-hand drive markets.
While I don't think every last west coast reservation will be filled before moving over to the next region to the east, I would expect it would at least lump all of the initial 300k-ish orders from the first couple weeks together.
 

Ip Man

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#14
Melinda-wrong. They have changed their plans as they didn't expect this many orders. I was able to talk to Franz about this about 6 months ago.
You have missed critical posts and tweets-suggest you look at telsa mdl 3 forum on tesla website and tesla motors club.
There will be small batches to each region 10k/15k based on date and time reserved in sequence of W N S E-not sure about order of N vs S due to weather, but I suspect N first to avoid bad weather conditions for delivery. In each batch highly optioned ones will go first, but they will be minimal less than 5% of orders for L model. It is thought there will be no p model for the 3. If you get dual motor and largest battery it will be equiv to a P. Entry level will be bare bones but still an incredible car.
 

MelindaV

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#15
Melinda-wrong. They have changed their plans as they didn't expect this many orders. I was able to talk to Franz about this about 6 months ago.
Until I see an official statement from Tesla, or personally have a conversation with Franz, Elon or JB, I disagree with your assessment that I am wrong.

You have missed critical posts and tweets-suggest you look at telsa mdl 3 forum on tesla website and tesla motors club.
Believe me, I've seen multiple comments speculating what will be done, but Tesla has not released anything beyond the original blog post on the actual delivery plans. A 2am single word twitter reply by Elon is the most information that has been released - and there is plenty of ways to twist those to each individual's liking. (like the truck is 'fixed' means "it will be a hatch" to some people).
 

Twiglett

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#16
Believe me, I've seen multiple comments speculating what will be done, but Tesla has not released anything beyond the original blog post on the actual delivery plans. A 2am single word twitter reply by Elon is the most information that has been released - and there is plenty of ways to twist those to each individual's liking. (like the truck is 'fixed' means "it will be a hatch" to some people).
Lack of a word is being translated into a HUD, so "fixed" must obviously mean the Model 3 now has a lift gate like the Model S :D
 

TrevP

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#20
Shows end of March 2018 for me if I chose AWD 75 and end of Feb is I chose RWD 75 (Canada, March 31 @ 9:45AM). I'm good either way :)