How many orders for M3 are there now??? Tesla is mum on this.

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SSonnentag

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#21
Good point.

Also, Tesla still can't provide good guidance for when new reservations may be delivered, because they're not sure how quickly they're going to be able to ramp up to their target production rate.
I suspect Tesla's predictions can't be any more precise due more to the unknown percentage of reservation holders that will actually follow through with the purchase. I would think that they'd have a pretty good handle on how quickly production will be able to ramp up at this point.
 

EValuatED

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#22
I suspect Tesla's predictions can't be any more precise due more to the unknown percentage of reservation holders that will actually follow through with the purchase. I would think that they'd have a pretty good handle on how quickly production will be able to ramp up at this point.
And so.. I think it is possible we will hear about reservations and production ramp and so on -- if they are soon going back to the capital markets to raise more money to build more factories (Car, Solar, and Batteries) -- that said, I agree with many of the points you all have raised. Giving guidance as a public company is a challenging art form!
 

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#23
Tesla is not usually super generous about sharing data, and I don't think they'll give a hard figure here (though I'm really interested).

Publishing it serves no useful corporate purpose—save some short-term bragging—and if they did publish it from now on they would have to explain any changes to the figure in every earnings call. It's also a bit off-putting to potential future owners to be so far back in line. I think they will finesse the number, and say something like, "The last number we shared was 373,000. The current number is higher than that." And they will continue to provide a rough delivery estimate for new orders.

By not sharing the number they can avoid news stories like "Tesla Model 3 Demand Craters" when they start reducing the backlog and the reservation queue shortens. Or if demand actual craters, I suppose. (Though I suspect it won't anytime soon.)
 

EValuatED

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#25
And so.. I think it is possible we will hear about reservations and production ramp and so on -- if they are soon going back to the capital markets to raise more money to build more factories (Car, Solar, and Batteries) -- that said, I agree with many of the points you all have raised. Giving guidance as a public company is a challenging art form!
So Elon did tell the press that they had 500K reservations... and I think that they may indeed sell some more stock and/or make some sort of additional financing move to help drive the M3 production ramp, etc.
 

JWardell

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#26
He said over 500,000. That could be a million for all we know. Remember all public statements are now made with great care, and I think Tesla wants to understate this as much as possible so as not to scare people.

I'm also curious how many orders were made in the past few days now that the announcement has made national news and normal people saw it. My mind was blown when my father called and said he thinks they should get an EV now!
 

MelindaV

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#27
He said over 500,000. That could be a million for all we know. Remember all public statements are now made with great care, and I think Tesla wants to understate this as much as possible so as not to scare people.

I'm also curious how many orders were made in the past few days now that the announcement has made national news and normal people saw it. My mind was blown when my father called and said he thinks they should get an EV now!
and wait until that MotorTrend article hits the stores! I'm sure there are a ton of people that may not follow Tesla but pick up that magazine and seeing it's lovely red photos and glowing review will be a hit.
 

John

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#28
All the shorts are second guessing that Elon meant they've "received" over half a million reservations, but that he's not mentioning how many have cancelled. So you'll hear people wondering if he was referring to a gross (how many EVER reserved) or a net (including cancellations) figure. I think the true answer is "plenty."

Right now Tesla is in a "trough" between depending on S and X sales and being able to meaningfully ramp up Model 3. Expect the stock to maybe take a little pounding over the next several months if investors need to move their money elsewhere, or if Q3 S and X unit totals dip even further from what they are reporting tomorrow for Q2.

I expect the institutional investors to hang around—unless NASDAQ as a whole takes a hit—but the retail investors may step aside until Tesla's Model 3 sales are meaningful. I sold my TSLA shares during the recent run up to the announcement, but the funds are just sitting there waiting to go right back in. I'm very bullish long term, but Tesla is in a jam right now in terms of the results. Can't be fun to manage. You want to shout about how great Model 3 is—because it's the future of the company—but you can't afford to hurt the present, or alienate the cars and the customers that got you here. It's a weird in between time right now...
 

Ip Man

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#29
John-
Pay attention to short holders /put contracts. GS just lost over 500m shorting it at 260.
They were short 14m shr when margin call came in.
This quarterly report we all know will be bland. That to me is the perfect time to buy.
I'm sitting on 2.3m cash in account just drooling to pick it up day after qrtly report-if it doesn't dip
I'll be pounding my way into shrs in 250 shr lots. Model 3 alone is worth 28billion in cash flow for Tesla.
Who cares if it cannibalizes s and x. Sales are sales. Model Y will be a bigger hit than the mdl 3.
And the truck-man forget about it. Truck sales will be insane. The torque and power it will have-
there will be no equal. Use your own common sense when investing. I've been a billion dollar mutual fund manager for
over 20yrs. This is a prime opportunity to get rich quick-10 yrs or so.
Think about the past. Even at 300/shr if you bought 5 yrs ago (approx) you'd have a free mdl 3 if you invested 3000.00.
I made millions here and I'm in no means anywhere close to being done with tesla stock.
 

tivoboy

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#30
John-
Pay attention to short holders /put contracts. GS just lost over 500m shorting it at 260.
They were short 14m shr when margin call came in.
This quarterly report we all know will be bland. That to me is the perfect time to buy.
I'm sitting on 2.3m cash in account just drooling to pick it up day after qrtly report-if it doesn't dip
I'll be pounding my way into shrs in 250 shr lots. Model 3 alone is worth 28billion in cash flow for Tesla.
Who cares if it cannibalizes s and x. Sales are sales. Model Y will be a bigger hit than the mdl 3.
And the truck-man forget about it. Truck sales will be insane. The torque and power it will have-
there will be no equal. Use your own common sense when investing. I've been a billion dollar mutual fund manager for
over 20yrs. This is a prime opportunity to get rich quick-10 yrs or so.
Think about the past. Even at 300/shr if you bought 5 yrs ago (approx) you'd have a free mdl 3 if you invested 3000.00.
I made millions here and I'm in no means anywhere close to being done with tesla stock.
revenues are not cash flow.
 

John

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#33
From Tesla's Q2 update letter to shareholders:

"With no advertising, paid endorsements or guerilla marketing campaigns, Model 3 net reservations have still steadily climbed every month, and have even accelerated further in recent weeks. Orders for Model S and Model X have also been increasing, both leading up to and following the Model 3 handover event. In July, our weekly net order rate for these vehicles was about 15% higher than our Q2 average weekly order rate. In addition, although too early to draw strong conclusions, we are seeing an even further increase in net Model S orders since the July 28th event. This growing demand gives us even more reason to expect increased deliveries of Model S and Model X in the second half of this year."

"In addition to the increased orders for Model S and Model X, customer response to Model 3 has been overwhelming. Since the handover event last week, we are averaging over 1,800 net Model 3 reservations per day."
 

tivoboy

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#36
From Tesla's Q2 update letter to shareholders:

"With no advertising, paid endorsements or guerilla marketing campaigns, Model 3 net reservations have still steadily climbed every month, and have even accelerated further in recent weeks. Orders for Model S and Model X have also been increasing, both leading up to and following the Model 3 handover event. In July, our weekly net order rate for these vehicles was about 15% higher than our Q2 average weekly order rate. In addition, although too early to draw strong conclusions, we are seeing an even further increase in net Model S orders since the July 28th event. This growing demand gives us even more reason to expect increased deliveries of Model S and Model X in the second half of this year."

"In addition to the increased orders for Model S and Model X, customer response to Model 3 has been overwhelming. Since the handover event last week, we are averaging over 1,800 net Model 3 reservations per day."
Well, sadly this is a quote from an article in Jan 2017, i'm pretty surprised that tesla shareholder relations would lift it as such and put it in the quarterly statement.

As well, not much could be further from actual truth.

Back in April 2016, first few days Tesla 'reported' that they had 325,000 reservations in the first few days of reservations being available. Within a few weeks they again 'reported' 400,000 reservations.

More than A YEAR later, they again - on stage mind you and somewhat cryptically, 'reported' 500,000. reservations. I wouldn't necessarily consider this change or 100,000 orders in over 1 year a "steady incline" and 'acceleration' of orders in any way shape or form.

disclaimer: model 3 reservation holder, shareholder form 50$.
 

John

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#37
Well, sadly this is a quote from an article in Jan 2017, i'm pretty surprised that tesla shareholder relations would lift it as such and put it in the quarterly statement.

As well, not much could be further from actual truth.
.
Which article was that? Hard to believe any of these sentences would even make sense back then.
 

garsh

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#38
Back in April 2016, first few days Tesla 'reported' that they had 325,000 reservations in the first few days of reservations being available. Within a few weeks they again 'reported' 400,000 reservations.

More than A YEAR later, they again - on stage mind you and somewhat cryptically, 'reported' 500,000. reservations. I wouldn't necessarily consider this change or 100,000 orders in over 1 year a "steady incline" and 'acceleration' of orders in any way shape or form.
The acceleration was referring to S & X orders.
Musk has admitted that they've been trying to anti-sell the Model 3 for quite a while.
Regardless, even given the very understated Model 3 handover party, they're now saying that reservations are pouring in once again for the 3.
 

EValuatED

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#39
From CNBC:

Tesla tops estimates, says Model 3 on track to hit production targets
  • Adjusted loss per share of $1.33 vs. $1.82 expected, according to Thomson Reuters
  • Revenue: $2.79 billion vs. $2.51 billion expected, according to Thomson Reuters
Robert Ferris | @RobertoFerris
16 Mins Ago CNBC.com

Tesla posted a narrower-than-expected second-quarter loss Wednesday, boosted by revenue that nearly doubled.

The strong revenue was driven by deliveries of its Model S sedans and Model X SUVs, helping to relieve investor concerns that the upcoming Model 3 was cannibalizing sales of its higher-end models.

Here's how the company did compared to what Wall Street expected:
  • Adjusted loss per share of $1.33 vs. $1.82 expected, according to Thomson Reuters
  • Revenue: $2.79 billion vs. $2.51 billion expected, according to Thomson Reuters
Tesla's reported a net loss of $336 million, or $2.04 per share, compared to a loss of $293 million, or $2.09 a share, a year ago.

Excluding stock based compensation, Tesla lost $1.33 a share, which was narrower than expected, according to a consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters.

Revenue climbed to $2.79 billion from $1.27 billion in the year-ago period, and outpacing Wall Street's estimates of $2.51 billion.

Shares surged more than 6 percent in after market trading. Since the start of the year, Tesla shares have gained 52 percent, as investors anticipate the launch of its first car for a more mainstream consumer.

Heading into the earnings report, analysts expressed concerns about whether Tesla would ramp up production of its Model 3, a more affordable electric car with a base cost of $35,000, quick enough. In the past, Tesla has struggled with production issues.

In the release Wednesday, Tesla reaffirmed that it remains on track to hit its previously announced targets.

On Friday, when it handed over the keys to the first Model 3 sedans to employees, Tesla said reservations for the car had grown to more than 500,000. Since that time, Tesla said it is averaging over 1,800 net Model 3 reservations a day.

In a letter to shareholders, Tesla said the first deliveries were "a huge milestone for Tesla
and is very exciting for our entire team."

The company expects to begin deliveries of the Model 3 to non-employees in the fourth quarter. It is aiming for international Model 3 deliveries to begin in late 2018, starting with left-hand drive markets. Right-hand drive markets won't likely have deliveries until 2019.

"We have learned many valuable lessons from designing and manufacturing Model S and Model X. Consequently, Model 3 is designed with greater simplicity and fewer components to reduce cost, improve ease of manufacturability and further enhance reliability," the company said in its statement.

Tesla expects to be able to produce 1,500 vehicles in the third quarter, and achieve a run rate of 5,000 vehicles per week by the end of this year. At some point next year, Tesla hopes to boost production to a rate of 10,000 Model 3s per week.

Tesla expects the Model 3 will have a positive gross margin in the fourth quarter, and it is targeting 25 percent margins in 2018.

Investors also may be encouraged that the company didn't burn through as much cash as it expected. Tesla anticipated capital expenditures would total $2 billion as it ramped up Model 3 production.

However, the company only spent $959 million in the latest quarter. All told the company said capital expenditures tallied $1.5 billion in the first half, helped by the timing of milestone-based payments.

Tesla ended the quarter with a cash balance of slightly over $3 billion.

As for worries over whether the Model 3 will eat into sales of its higher-end cars, Tesla saw a 53 percent increase in deliveries for its Model S and Model X cars combined compared to the same quarter last year, even though overall industry sales of luxury cars remained flat.

During the second quarter, Tesla delivered 22,026 Model S and Model X cars, for a total of 47,077 in the first half of the year.

The California carmaker expects Model S and X deliveries to increase during the second half of 2017, compared with the first half.

Net gross margins for the automotive business were 27.9 percent and adjusted gross margins were 25 percent.

As for the company's SolarCity unit, it began Solar Roof installations during the quarter at its employees' homes.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on a conference call that he is pleased with the look of the roof, but expects its to improve.

"I think this roof is going to look really knockout as we keep iterating" Musk said.

CORRECTION: This article has been revised to reflect that Wall Street expectations for Tesla were for an adjusted loss of $1.82. An earlier headline misstated that fact.