How many orders for M3 are there now??? Tesla is mum on this.

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EValuatED

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#3
I'm betting over 600k now, but T is playing their cards very close to the chest.
What do you all think?
That is a great question. If EM says higher than 400K then stock goes up? If he says nothing then shorts pounce? I'm sure some have dropped out from the early days. But directly and anecdotally, I know there have been adds.
 

garsh

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#4
I can't see any benefit for Tesla to release this information.
If it's too low, pundits will be writing articles about how Model 3 demand stagnated.
If it's too high, pundits will be writing articles about how Tesla will never be able to meet the demand.

Tesla will continue to anti-sell and attempt to convert reservations to immediate Model S purchases, including CPO.
 

EValuatED

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#5
I can't see any benefit for Tesla to release this information.
If it's too low, pundits will be writing articles about how Model 3 demand stagnated.
If it's too high, pundits will be writing articles about how Tesla will never be able to meet the demand.

Tesla will continue to anti-sell and attempt to convert reservations to immediate Model S purchases, including CPO.
Understand. Yet, what a wonderful thing to have in business: Demand you are challenged to meet! If the number has grown, I could see EM sharing it even if it means they'd have to expand the Fremont capacity -- maybe underground? No, would be Boring -- or build another production facility somewhere (like at the Gigafactory? Wouldn't be Boring there!).
 

dudeman

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#6
I can't see any benefit for Tesla to release this information.
If it's too low, pundits will be writing articles about how Model 3 demand stagnated.
If it's too high, pundits will be writing articles about how Tesla will never be able to meet the demand.

Tesla will continue to anti-sell and attempt to convert reservations to immediate Model S purchases, including CPO.
We can safely assume that reservations number if published would be a positive news from Tesla, I.e. More than people expected.

They know media will use reservations numbers to harm tesla either way. No reason to self inflict wounds and make it public.

Also, it might discourage new reservations. They don't want to do that, given reservations to order conversion ratios can't be predicted.
 

EValuatED

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#7
We can safely assume that reservations number if published would be a positive news from Tesla, I.e. More than people expected.

They know media will use reservations numbers to harm tesla either way. No reason to self inflict wounds and make it public.

Also, it might discourage new reservations. They don't want to do that, given reservations to order conversion ratios can't be predicted.
Unless... you were soon going back to the capital markets to raise more money to build more factories (Car, Solar, and Batteries)...
 

Michael Russo

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#8
As much as we would all like to know... ;) I don't expect the number to be released much before the end of the year, around the time they've ramped up to 5k a week or so...

Yet at that point, why would T≡SLA pass on the opportunity to give TSLA a boost by releasing what we expect to be the close to 600k reservations ?? ;)
 

garsh

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#9
Also, it might discourage new reservations.
Good point.

Also, Tesla still can't provide good guidance for when new reservations may be delivered, because they're not sure how quickly they're going to be able to ramp up to their target production rate.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#12
I think it will definetly come out someday and go into history books.

Ofcourse, Timing of it will be dependendent on benefits to Tesla.
That's probably fair enough. Not sure when that will be though.
 

MichelT3

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#13
One critique; you're all talking about the number of reservations, while the question is about number of orders...
Of the latter I would say 150; roughly what they have produced till now and will produce in August.
 

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#14
@MichelT3 I might be too optimistic but here are my predictions about orders next year.

They will sell about 450K+ model 3 next year.

It will be second best selling car in the world. First being corolla. (It will knock off corrola from top in 2019 when teslsa would have bigger production capacity.)

The model 3 will be car of the year and it will win many awards. Nothing surprising here.
 

Ip Man

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#15
Interesting feedback.. Thanks everyone.
I see both sides of this story.
Personally, I would love to see puts squashed by 600k orders.
That would be almost 25b in revenues and at least 5b in profits.
Then model Y and Semi and truck and r2 (roadster 2 version d.2) d2 and more mass production.
The expansion (massively rapid growth) kills the stock price but in the end-Tesla will be more valuable than
Apple easily.
Hyperloop will attack airlines. It faster than flying. How they will make money - tolls or tickets, etc.
If T breaks even on solar I would be thrilled-as long as it isn't a loss.
I think by 2025 we see Tesla overtaking apple, google or amazon as most valuable company.
The superchargers alone deter me from ordering any other EV.
If you build them-they will come. Right now in my mind Tesla is the only EV manufacturer there is due to just this one thing.
 

dudeman

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#17
Interesting feedback.. Thanks everyone.
I see both sides of this story.
Personally, I would love to see puts squashed by 600k orders.
That would be almost 25b in revenues and at least 5b in profits.
Then model Y and Semi and truck and r2 (roadster 2 version d.2) d2 and more mass production.
The expansion (massively rapid growth) kills the stock price but in the end-Tesla will be more valuable than
Apple easily.
Hyperloop will attack airlines. It faster than flying. How they will make money - tolls or tickets, etc.
If T breaks even on solar I would be thrilled-as long as it isn't a loss.
I think by 2025 we see Tesla overtaking apple, google or amazon as most valuable company.
The superchargers alone deter me from ordering any other EV.
If you build them-they will come. Right now in my mind Tesla is the only EV manufacturer there is due to just this one thing.
I don't think hyperloop or boring is part of tsla though.
 

Jean Théoret

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#19
Good point.

Also, Tesla still can't provide good guidance for when new reservations may be delivered, because they're not sure how quickly they're going to be able to ramp up to their target production rate.
I agree here, Tesla will not provides any numbers before a good ramp up and good pace of car production. They have to be at a pace of 30-35K cars per month before stating any figures, my guess. Otherwise, it will be a catastrophe showing a backlog of 500-600K cars with a slower pace of production.
 

Jayc

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#20
I'm betting over 600k now, but T is playing their cards very close to the chest.
What do you all think?
I think it was a big deal 1 year ago but today, the bigger issue is production ramp up and the rate at which Tesla can convert existing pre orders into real orders. When Model Y is revealed, again the number of pre orders for Y will be an important metric.