How many Model 3 in 2018?

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How many Model 3 will Tesla deliver this year (2018)?

  • Fewer than 60k

  • 60k-90k

  • 90k-120k

  • 120k-150k

  • 150k-200k

  • 200k-250k

  • More than 250k


Results are only viewable after voting.

Mjp462

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Joined
Sep 14, 2017
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Carlsbad, CA
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#21
I have very little reason to believe they will hit any of their goals beyond the Q2 goal. I expect 80-90k in 2018.

My opinion is not positive, but this does not mean I short the stock. I actually own Tesla stock but can't see how my opinion of the ramp will effect the stock price. It would be fun to think so highly of myself.:)
 
Joined
Nov 21, 2017
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Fishers, IN
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#22
I'm going with 135k..
My assumptions are:

1) They are producing 500 battery packs weekly currently ( Based on the automated line will produce 4x the manual line and they hope to exit this quarter at 2500 units. AKA 500 Hand built + 2000 automated at end of quarter )

2) For the next Quarter they will be limited to 2500 batteries ( Again 2000 Automated + 500 Hand Built )

3) For the remaining 2 Quarters they will sustain around 4000 per week. ( Assuming they stop hand building at this point )

4) ~2 week zero production for random stuff ( Replacement batteries, Line Tweeking, ETC )

500*13+2500*13 + 4000 * 24 + 0*2 = 135k