Final push of S and X before HUD installed?

Steve C

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#1
Ok, so..... As this is the rumour mill thread, I thought this was a good spot to put this.

How possible is it that Tesla is doing the heavy push for custom orders now to clear the inventory and prepare for a HUD upgrade on the S and X? The S and X will get more bells and whistles than the model 3 so I'd imagine it's just a matter of timing.

My bet is that the S and X with get the HUD upgrade like the model 3 sooner than later. Probably the latest they would announce it would be at the 3rd Model 3 reveal. Perhaps saying something like..... 'and this new feature is now available on all S and X orders from here forward'

Musk didn't want to announce the full autonomy until the S and X were being built with it included. I may be wrong but it does appear to be his pattern.

Anyone want to bet a beer on it? (10 people max lol)

Happy New year everyone.
 

Steve C

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#2
It could also be the new high voltage charging hardware that is getting rolled out to the S and X. Just have a feeling something is happening soon to both the S and X.
 

MichelT3

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#3
As @TrevP already stated, the high voltage charging probably needs the new bigger battery cells. It's not logical that those cells already will be put into the S and X, because Tesla needs all production capacity for the Model 3.
 

garsh

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#4
As @TrevP already stated, the high voltage charging probably needs the new bigger battery cells. It's not logical that those cells already will be put into the S and X, because Tesla needs all production capacity for the Model 3.
I disagree. Tesla is going to position the S and X as the technology leaders of the lineup. Any new ground-breaking features such as faster charging will be introduced on those vehicles either before or simultaneously with showing up on the Model 3.
 

MichelT3

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#5
@garsh You mean that faster charging should also be possible with the smaller battery cells? This is contradictory to @TrevP 's opinion, which I value greatly.
Maybe with the cooling system that is now used for the 100 kWh pack?
 

garsh

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#7
@garsh You mean that faster charging should also be possible with the smaller battery cells?
I'm saying that if the new cells are required to allow the faster charging rates, then Tesla will start making S & X batteries using the new cells before the Model 3 goes on sale. They won't be saving all of that battery production capacity for the Model 3.

It's also not clear to me that the current battery packs are incapable of charging at higher rates. I just don't recall reading much about the current cell's charging limitations.
 

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#8
I'm saying that if the new cells are required to allow the faster charging rates, then Tesla will start making S & X batteries using the new cells before the Model 3 goes on sale. They won't be saving all of that battery production capacity for the Model 3.

It's also not clear to me that the current battery packs are incapable of charging at higher rates. I just don't recall reading much about the current cell's charging limitations.
I reject the position that Elon's tweet regarding >350kW necessarily means that, when the time comes, that any vehicle delivered by Tesla before such an event will be capable of charging st any faster speed than was delivered before such an event.

It may not necessarily be a technical issue with batteries or cables or anything.

Having gone through several iterations of Tesla improvements and being priced out of any in-car improvements on my current vehicle understands more than most that Tesla builds impressive cars that are the best at the time one purchases the car new. However, improvements occur at rapid pace and do not necessarily assume that things in a current Tesla will be more advanced than the next one...

Take it from me. We have a Roadster and a pre D/ AP 1.0 Model S, and I know many who have Model S that are equipped with the A pack battery that only charges at 90kW
 

Steve C

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#9
I reject the position that Elon's tweet regarding >350kW necessarily means that, when the time comes, that any vehicle delivered by Tesla before such an event will be capable of charging st any faster speed than was delivered before such an event.

It may not necessarily be a technical issue with batteries or cables or anything.

Having gone through several iterations of Tesla improvements and being priced out of any in-car improvements on my current vehicle understands more than most that Tesla builds impressive cars that are the best at the time one purchases the car new. However, improvements occur at rapid pace and do not necessarily assume that things in a current Tesla will be more advanced than the next one...

Take it from me. We have a Roadster and a pre D/ AP 1.0 Model S, and I know many who have Model S that are equipped with the A pack battery that only charges at 90kW

As I had mentioned. I believe this will be a hardware upgrade and probably not possible on current models (P100D possibly being the exception)

It doesn't make sense to me that they would release the model 3 with the new cells and not the S and X. By the time the 3 is ready to ship, I would think that the S and X will have the new cells, >350kW charging, HUD and everything else the 3 has plus more.

This part of the reason I think 2017 is going to be crazy for Tesla (and TSLA). Throw in a few new model reveals and this baby is going to MOON!! lol..... I hope everyone has loaded up on TSLA.
 

TrevP

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#10
As I had mentioned. I believe this will be a hardware upgrade and probably not possible on current models (P100D possibly being the exception)

It doesn't make sense to me that they would release the model 3 with the new cells and not the S and X. By the time the 3 is ready to ship, I would think that the S and X will have the new cells, >350kW charging, HUD and everything else the 3 has plus more.

This part of the reason I think 2017 is going to be crazy for Tesla (and TSLA). Throw in a few new model reveals and this baby is going to MOON!! lol..... I hope everyone has loaded up on TSLA.
The new cells were a design requirement for the Model 3 in order to achieve economies of scale and have the optimal cell dimensions and energy density required for the smaller car. They are indeed going into the Model 3 initially but Tesla has said they will be deployed across all the products, including the PowerWall/PowerPack.

It's just a matter of time when they will show up in the Model S/X but it requires a redesign the of the pack. Elon has said they have basically gone as far as they can with the 18650 cells in the P100DL go going forward it they will be using the 2170. But it's not necessarily a forgone conclusion that they must put those cells into the Model S before the Model 3 just because the Model S is is supposed to have "the latest technology" all the time. To me I don't see the new cells as being heldback for the Model 3 so they can be implemented in the S first. There's plenty of other stuff they can put on the S first.

I think we need to separate the new cells into it's own thing and not think of them as a requirement "new technology" per se but as a requirement for the Model 3 to achieve the cost cutting.
 

Steve C

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#11
The new cells were a design requirement for the Model 3 in order to achieve economies of scale and have the optimal cell dimensions and energy density required for the smaller car. They are indeed going into the Model 3 initially but Tesla has said they will be deployed across all the products, including the PowerWall/PowerPack.

It's just a matter of time when they will show up in the Model S/X but it requires a redesign the of the pack. Elon has said they have basically gone as far as they can with the 18650 cells in the P100DL go going forward it they will be using the 2170. But it's not necessarily a forgone conclusion that they must put those cells into the Model S before the Model 3 just because the Model S is is supposed to have "the latest technology" all the time. To me I don't see the new cells as being heldback for the Model 3 so they can be implemented in the S first. There's plenty of other stuff they can put on the S first.

I think we need to separate the new cells into it's own thing and not think of them as a requirement "new technology" per se but as a requirement for the Model 3 to achieve the cost cutting.
I'm sure Elon has a team that has already redesigned the S and X pack. They are waiting for the batteries to cure and then load up the new packs!

Of course I'm just guessing, but I don't think I'm far off.
 

TrevP

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#12
No doubt they have started work on the pack redesign but my point is not that they necessarily have to put them into the S *before* the Model 3 arrives "just because".

I think some would interpret the lower cost cells going into the Model S as an attempt at more profit and not passing along the savings to the customer, especially if the pack densities stayed the same. Of course this most likely would not be the case as a lot of people want higher density packs no matter the cost...
 

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#13
The one thing that I don't see happening is Tesla advertising the Model 3 with 600+kW charging without first offering that capability for the S and X. I think that's one sure way to decimate S & X sales. Who would want to buy an S with 40-minute charge times when a 3 costs less and charges in 10 minutes? I think the possibilities are:
  1. Supercharger V3 won't be ready before the Model 3 launch, so no vehicles will be offered with that option initially.
  2. Same as 1, but Model 3 has the (unadvertised) capability at launch. When SC V3 is ready, new S & X orders have the option, and Tesla offers an over-the-air "upgrade" for existing Model 3 owners to unlock the capability.
  3. Tesla is able to offer SC V3 charging for S & X using the existing 18650 cells. Doesn't seem likely, but I haven't managed to find a definitive statement from a Tesla source stating that the current batteries are incapable of charging at higher rates.
  4. Tesla is able to quickly transition S & X to 2170 cell battery packs to offer the capability. This assumes that Gigafactory can ramp up to meet S, X, and 3 demand.
 

Steve C

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#14
No doubt they have started work on the pack redesign but my point is not that they necessarily have to put them into the S *before* the Model 3 arrives "just because".

I think some would interpret the lower cost cells going into the Model S as an attempt at more profit and not passing along the savings to the customer, especially if the pack densities stayed the same. Of course this most likely would not be the case as a lot of people want higher density packs no matter the cost...
We should just chat over a beverage Trev. ;)

I agree with what you are saying but.... This is where they have the ability to really make the S and X stand apart from the 3.

Imagine a Model S P150D with 1000km of range and a 0-60 of 2.2.
 

TrevP

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#15
Name the time and place dude ;)

For sure we can expect the S to get bigger packs and more range. Falls into line with the Supercharger version 3 Elon mentioned. A bigger pack means you can hit it hard to get to 80% a lot faster.
 

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#16
Just to keep in mind that the harder you hit these cells the shorter the battery life. This is why regular supercharging is discouraged in the manual and other sources. A nice slow charge to 80% (no more for best use) and cycled down to 30% (or higher) for optimum battery life/range.

My two cents would be that S & X will get 2170's first or at the same time as model 3. It sounds like that production capacity may be an issue especially with all the Power Pack 2 contracts they have been getting which i do believe also use the 2170's (different chemistry though).
 

Steve C

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#17
Does anyone know how long the batteries need to cure before they are able to be deployed?
 

MelindaV

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#18
Just to keep in mind that the harder you hit these cells the shorter the battery life. This is why regular supercharging is discouraged in the manual and other sources. A nice slow charge to 80% (no more for best use) and cycled down to 30% (or higher) for optimum battery life/range.

However, Tesloop who only used Superchargers from nearly 0% to a 100% charge on a daily basis only has a 6% degradation after 215,000 miles. they had an interview on the podcast Talking Tesla (ep. 55) a few months ago.
Tesla's batteries are holding up pretty well, and expect their engineers have taken a higher charge rate into consideration on battery design.
 

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#20
The one thing that I don't see happening is Tesla advertising the Model 3 with 600+kW charging without first offering that capability for the S and X. I think that's one sure way to decimate S & X sales. Who would want to buy an S with 40-minute charge times when a 3 costs less and charges in 10 minutes? I think the possibilities are:
  1. Supercharger V3 won't be ready before the Model 3 launch, so no vehicles will be offered with that option initially.
  2. Same as 1, but Model 3 has the (unadvertised) capability at launch. When SC V3 is ready, new S & X orders have the option, and Tesla offers an over-the-air "upgrade" for existing Model 3 owners to unlock the capability.
  3. Tesla is able to offer SC V3 charging for S & X using the existing 18650 cells. Doesn't seem likely, but I haven't managed to find a definitive statement from a Tesla source stating that the current batteries are incapable of charging at higher rates.
  4. Tesla is able to quickly transition S & X to 2170 cell battery packs to offer the capability. This assumes that Gigafactory can ramp up to meet S, X, and 3 demand.
The Tesla Model S debuted with an 18650 battery cell that per JB Straubel was about 40% more energy dense than what was available in the Tesla Roadster. Though an upgrade battery pack was eventually announced in 2015 for the Tesla Roadster... I think no one actually took delivery of one until some time in 2016. Similarly, the Tesla Roadster was not capable of using Superchargers at all, and still is not after the upgraded battery pack in installed.

Technology advances with time. There will be those who are left behind. Such is life.

Tesla has no concern whatsoever over 'decimating' sales of the Model S. They originally expected to sell perhaps 15,000 of them per year. They have moved on the order of 165,000+ of them through 2016. Better than 11 years worth of cars in only 4-1/2 years since launch. In a car with an 8-year product cycle. Everything they sell of Model S through 2020 is pure gravy.

The Model X outsold the Porsche Cayenne during 2016. There is a strong possibility it will match or surpass the BMW X5, Mercedes-Benz GL/GLS-Class, and AUDI Q7 this year, 2017. It is ICE manufacturers that should be afraid, not Tesla.

If Tesla is able to create a Model ☰ that greatly surpasses the Model S on all fronts, they will.