EV Revolution Show (formerly Model 3 Owners Club Show)

MichelT3

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Great show again.
Though your production estimates are really disappointing. And I'm afraid you may be right... :eek::oops:

For me this will certainly mean that I won't be getting my car untill well into 2019. With the incuding tax disadvantage.
I hope my current car will last. Or I may have to find an in-between solution. Damn.
 

Skione65

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@TrevP,

Agreed! Excellent show again...covered a lot. I agree on your “Alcantara-gate” analysis. Also @MichelT3 I’m afraid I’m in the same boat with you! I’m quite disappointed in these new production estimates but alas fear they’re true and probably what we can expect at this point. I was Oct-Dec which was kicked to Nov-Jan (2018-19) and now with these estimates....Ouch. Gives me more time to save and my son who is getting my car when he starts driving will allow it to not to have to sit “idle” as long while I enjoy my 3.

P.S. I was going to “like” your Update video but your new Production Estimates nipped that in the bud!:) ( j.k.) gave you a well deserved like anyway! Happy New Year Guys!

Ski
 
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Troy

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Hi, @TrevP. In Episode 27, after 33:51 you talked about California vs East Coast deliveries. I have some data about that based on the Model 3 invites spreadsheet here. The last two large batches of invites went out on 22 Dec and 4 Jan. Here are the numbers:

~22 Dec 2017 invites:
37 invitees have filled out the survey.
37 of them were from California.
California invite rate was 100% for the 22 Dec 2017 batch.

~4 Jan 2018 invites:
81 invitees have filled out the survey.
6 of them were from California.
California invite rate was 7% for the 4 Jan 2018 batch.

In other words, owners on the East Coast are getting their cars now. Here are some of the scheduled delivery dates:
  • Naperville, IL 17 Jan 2018
  • Princeton, NJ 20 Jan 2018
  • Boca Raton, FL 21 Jan 2018
  • Wye Mills, MD 22 Jan 2018
  • Stafford, VA 22 Jan 2018
At least for owners, Tesla has abandoned their original plan, which was West Coast first and then to move East gradually. Instead, they are shipping cars to all owners anywhere in the US. The 4 January 2018 invite map looks like this:

 
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There’s evidence that time of day of ordering the car factors into one’s position in the queue, at least for current Tesla owners who ordered on day one. I heard about it in one of the podcasts.

For example, morning orders from the East Coast got the email invite to configure prior to evening orders from the West Coast. Not sure if this happened across the board but it came as a bit of a surprise to those who made the discovery.
 

Michael Russo

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Good video, @TrevP & @Kennethbokor !!

Couple of things that resonate with me:

- while I appreciate we need to be prudent about total 2018 projections, as you know ramp-up will not be linear; it is of paramount importance to generate cash and to satisfy as many as possible reservation holders waiting in line (obviously the two will go together!). As a result, though I don’t know how they’ll do it (hopefully T≡SLA does...), I wanna believe the yearly output will be 200K at a minimum... with weekly outputs in excess of 5k by YE... :sunrisemountains::rainbow::rollercoaster:

- Kudo to you, Trev, for your candor on the T≡SLA statement on the ‘headlinergate’! I also don’t buy it, at all, so bravo for going on record and saying it loud & clear.

I hope T≡SLA listens and reads this. In fact I know they do...

So...

T≡SLA , we love you, yet do.not.do this kind of s**t! :mad:
 

Mike

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Hi, @TrevP. In Episode 27, after 33:51 you talked about California vs East Coast deliveries. I have some data about that based on the Model 3 invites spreadsheet here. The last two large batches of invites went out on 22 Dec and 4 Jan. Here are the numbers:

~22 Dec 2017 invites:
37 invitees have filled out the survey.
37 of them were from California.
California invite rate was 100% for the 22 Dec 2017 batch.

~4 Jan 2018 invites:
81 invitees have filled out the survey.
6 of them were from California.
California invite rate was 7% for the 4 Jan 2018 batch.

In other words, owners on the East Coast are getting their cars now. Here are some of the scheduled delivery dates:
  • Naperville, IL 17 Jan 2018
  • Princeton, NJ 20 Jan 2018
  • Boca Raton, FL 21 Jan 2018
  • Wye Mills, MD 22 Jan 2018
  • Stafford, VA 22 Jan 2018
At least for owners, Tesla has abandoned their original plan, which was West Coast first and then to move East gradually. Instead, they are shipping cars to all owners anywhere in the US. The 4 January 2018 invite map looks like this:

Troy: I always enjoy your analyticals regarding Model 3 and Tesla vehicles in general.

Do you have any firm Model 3 VIN data, perhaps plottable on a logarithmic scale?

The current vinbot site (supposedly able to gather data from this forum, the TOC forum and the Tesla Reddit site) seems to be unable to show any of the VINs over 4000 that have shown up (with photos) and been entered.
 

Troy

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Model 3 Owners Club Show Episode 28
After 3:29 in the video, @Kennethbokor talked about Canada invites and when they might arrive. My best guess is late March or early April 2018. Here is why:

Tesla.com AWD estimates show Mid-2018 for most Canada non-owners and Late-2018 for most US owners. That means most non-owners from Canada should get their AWD Model 3's before most US owners. Prioritizing Canada AWD over the US is either about the Ontario EV rebate or the US federal tax credits or both. I have read that there is a risk the Ontario rebate might end at the end of June because of some political changes. I have no idea how likely that is. However, the federal tax credits situation has the exact same deadline (end of June 2018). In other words, in both scenarios, most Canada production would finish by the end of June 2018.

Based on my calculation, Tesla is expected to hit 200K US sales on 28 April 2018 if they don't produce any cars for Canada in Q2. However, if most of May and June production goes to Canada and they postpone some Model X deliveries to July, they could push 200K to Q3. Interestingly, if you go to tesla.com and look at the Model X configurator, it shows June 2018 for Model X deliveries if you order now. I'm pretty sure this is not a coincidence. In addition, in today's Ride the Lightning podcast, Ryan said he heard from a trustworthy source that Tesla's Canada play is about the federal tax credits.

The new version of the spreadsheet estimator currently shows 28 March 2018 for the earliest Canada invites.
 
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Daliman

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Hoping you are right as that would let a lot of us get the Ontario tax credit before it is put at risk. It is hard to tell the actual risk as things are increasingly chaotic. Model 3 by spring would be amazing.
 

TrevP

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After 3:29 in the video, @Kennethbokor talked about Canada invites and when they might arrive. My best guess is late March or early April 2018. Here is why:

Tesla.com AWD estimates show Mid-2018 for most Canada non-owners and Late-2018 for most US owners. That means most non-owners from Canada should get their AWD Model 3's before most US owners. Prioritizing Canada AWD over the US is either about the Ontario EV rebate or the US federal tax credits or both. I have read that there is a risk the Ontario rebate might end at the end of June because of some political changes. I have no idea how likely that is. However, the federal tax credits situation has the exact same deadline (end of June 2018). In other words, in both scenarios, most Canada production would finish by the end of June 2018.

Based on my calculation, Tesla is expected to hit 200K US sales on 28 April 2018 if they don't produce any cars for Canada in Q2. However, if most of May and June production goes to Canada and they postpone some Model X deliveries to July, they could push 200K to Q3. Interestingly, if you go to tesla.com and look at the Model X configurator, it shows June 2018 for Model X deliveries if you order now. I'm pretty sure this is not a coincidence. In addition, in today's Ride the Lightning podcast, Ryan said he heard from a trustworthy source that Tesla's Canada play is about the federal tax credits.

The new version of the spreadsheet estimator currently shows 28 March 2018 for the earliest Canada invites.
After reading the latest news and seeing the Model X pushback and considering the ramifications I'm in agreement with you, Tesla seems to be doing a tax credit play. Yes, our political situation is unknown after the election in June as far as rebates are concerned. It could go either way but the latest info seems to favour them staying at least until the end of 2018. The list of approved vehicles now shows 2018 Model S and X (Model 3 is still not on the list because it's not available here yet) but will qualify for the full $14K rebate based on the required criteria.

Hopefully it will arrive and indeed many can claim the rebate but as I've always heeded: rebates WILL go away eventually and buyers will have to bear the full cost of the car so hope for the best but plan for the worst.
 

garsh

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Big numbers for March!

Regarding the Buick EV SUV:
That doesn't look too "concepty". I bet they bring that to market with minor changes.
It'll have smaller wheels/tires, some larger (legal) headlights, and larger (legal) side-view mirrors.
But I bet the bodywork doesn't change much.

 

Michael Russo

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Regarding the Buick EV SUV:
That doesn't look too "concepty". I bet they bring that to market with minor changes.
It'll have smaller wheels/tires, some larger (legal) headlights, and larger (legal) side-view mirrors.
But I bet the bodywork doesn't change much.

:rainbow::rainbow::rainbow:

:D
 

Dr. J

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Big numbers for March!

Small correction to the US EV tax credit phase-out. 100% of the credit is available during the quarter the manufacturer hits 200,000 US deliveries, and for another quarter after that. 50% of the credit is available for the next two calendar quarters, and then the 25% credit is available for two additional quarters. I sure hope you guys are right are about Tesla hitting the 200,000 mark in July!
 

garsh

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2018 Nissan Leaf Impressions
I don't care how nice the car is. I'm not buying another Nissan EV until Nissan provides a much better guarantee against battery degradation. I took a chance on the Leaf (over a Model S) because I thought it was the safer choice, and it was the wrong choice.