Doing The Right Thing?

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Dan Detweiler

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#1
Could this be a sign that Tesla is holding off on deliveries in the US to delay the 200,000th delivery until after March 31st to ensure another quarter's worth of customers receive the full US tax credit? It would make sense to me. Keep revenue coming in with high profit margin cars going to Canada while delaying the initiation of the federal phase out.

Thoughts?

https://electrek.co/2018/02/08/tesla-model-3-canada/
 

SoFlaModel3

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#2
Could this be a sign that Tesla is holding off on deliveries in the US to delay the 200,000th delivery until after March 31st to ensure another quarter's worth of customers receive the full US tax credit? It would make sense to me. Keep revenue coming in with high profit margin cars going to Canada while delaying the initiation of the federal phase out.

Thoughts?

https://electrek.co/2018/02/08/tesla-model-3-canada/
It makes sense on 2 levels to me...
  1. They keep humming without tinkering with production
  2. They extend the life of the US credit
#2 is a risk though, because they could hit anyway and worse yet the credit could be nixed after 2018.
 

Dan Detweiler

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#3
It makes sense on 2 levels to me...
  1. They keep humming without tinkering with production
  2. They extend the life of the US credit
#2 is a risk though, because they could hit anyway and worse yet the credit could be nixed after 2018.
Even if they axed the credit after 2018 it would still only effect some of the people getting the reduced credit. Full credit would only be effected if they don't hit the magic number until Q3 this year, and then only some.

...and that is only IF they did away with the credit in next year's budget.

Dan
 

SoFlaModel3

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#4
Even if they axed the credit after 2018 it would still only effect some of the people getting the reduced credit. Full credit would only be effected if they don't hit the magic number until Q3 this year, and then only some.

...and that is only IF they did away with the credit in next year's budget.

Dan
Yeah, it's tricky, because if this move makes 200k happen in Q3 rather than Q2. It means higher production rates applied against the full credit. Assuming 5,000 cars/week and all cars in Q3 and Q4 go to US based customers then they can deliver 130,000 US based Model 3's in the second half of the year at full credit.

Where as if they hit in Q2, then Q4's 65,000 cars would be at $3,750 credit.

In either case the credit could be kept or axed heading into 2019 so I suppose the up side on the delay (if this is why) is ultimately well worth it for the consumer.
 

garsh

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#5
Also, Ontario has a rebate that may get killed in the second half of 2018.
So it also makes sense from the standpoint of Tesla trying to help out Canadian buyers.

And just to add a little bit of rumor:
Ordering times for the S and especially the X have increased lately. Cutting back on S and X deliveries in the US would also help Tesla to push off crossing 200k until July. But, it would also make sense for them to take advantage of that kind of downtime to perform any needed maintenance and upgrades to the S and X production line. So... could we be seeing a refreshed S and X coming out for the second half of this year? :)
 

TrevP

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#6
Also, Ontario has a rebate that may get killed in the second half of 2018.
So it also makes sense from the standpoint of Tesla trying to help out Canadian buyers.

And just to add a little bit of rumor:
Ordering times for the S and especially the X have increased lately. Cutting back on S and X deliveries in the US would also help Tesla to push off crossing 200k until July. But, it would also make sense for them to take advantage of that kind of downtime to perform any needed maintenance and upgrades to the S and X production line. So... could we be seeing a refreshed S and X coming out for the second half of this year? :)
Holding back production and deliveries is something Elon mentioned in the past: