So jealous people are like you living in west coast. I live in Pennsylvania and I will be wait...for a long.....time.....I avoided the lines at opening in Pasadena, Californa, which I heard were literally around the block and more. Luckily, when I arrived at 3:40pm, I waited all of 8 minutes before I was invited in. In another five minutes, I was an owner and out the door again. I've waited longer than that for a Starbucks. I'm hoping that since West Coast cars are to deliver first, I'll have a Christmas present next year in the shape of a shiny silver Model 3.
I'm expecting mine in April 0f 2018...two years from now.
Good analysis. Do you think Elon will under promise and over deliver?Tesla delivered a total of 50,580 cars in 2015, and according to their recent press release:
Q1 deliveries consisted of 12,420 Model S vehicles and 2,400 Model X vehicles. Q1 deliveries were almost 50% more than Q1 last year and Tesla remains on track to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new vehicles in 2016.
We know that the ultimate goal is to ramp up to 500,000 annually by 2020, but I believe this total production right? Model S, X, and 3? So of the 500,000, Model 3 maybe 350k to 400k? I agree with what Van Shrider stated above:
"the production plan for the Model 3 will need to be VASTLY different than it is for the S or X, we have no notion of the number of Model 3s that will be pumped out per day or week. That magic number of cars per week is what I will be listening to when it's broadcasted."
Even if Tesla can start delivering Model 3's in Q4 of 2017, how many do we think they will actually produce that quarter? I'm guessing less than 10k. If the goal is to be producing 7,500 Model 3's per wk by 2020, than what do we think the capacity will be in the first weeks of production? I'm guessing 30% or less of that goal. Assuming a 2018 production rate of 2,250 model 3's per week gives us 9,750 Model 3's per month.
There were 115k reservations by the time Elon took to the stage on March 31. I'm guessing that included the employee reservations from the day before. We know that West coast deliveries will get priority, and then also preference for existing Model S and X owners... and also employees... and also those who have ordered more options, and also those who waited in-line vs on-line. There are multiple factors that will bump you up or down the priority list, but of those factors, we don't really know which get priority do we?
(BTW Has anybody ever learned the boundaries for the "regions" or what stores fall into which region or even how many regions there are? It all seems rather vague)
I waited in a line at the Kansas City Tesla store for about 20 minutes, but didn't get there until the doors had been open for about 2 hours. My guess was that they were processing reservations close to 1-2 per minute so I'm probably several hundred down the list for that store, and god knows how many for that region. If I had to guess I'd say I'm probably 70-80k on that list of 115k.
If we assume 2018 starts with a production rate of 9,750 / mo., than I'm guessing that I won't be getting the call until Q3-Q4. It will be a hard wait, but at least I have this website to focus my obsession.