Delivery estimator gets updated! SR got push back even after AWD

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#1
I just checked my delivery estimator and the dates are updated.
Was
LR: Feb-Apr
SR: mid 2018
AWD: Oct-Dec

Now
LR: May-July
SR: early 2019
AWD: late 2018

Seems like Tesla is pushing SR to even after AWD to get more margin
 

M3OC Rules

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#3
I just checked my delivery estimator and the dates are updated.
Was
LR: Feb-Apr
SR: mid 2018
AWD: Oct-Dec

Now
LR: May-July
SR: early 2019
AWD: late 2018

Seems like Tesla is pushing SR to even after AWD to get more margin
Gonna be lots of sad line waiters with that decision...
 

Brokedoc

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#5
FYI my owner priority reservation that I deferred now shows First production delivery in 3-6 weeks if I choose to configure now and both SR and Dual Motor have been pushed to “late 2018”.

F6EAB7BD-CFC3-4C85-BE73-7B381F5CA22D.jpeg

The configurator also was updated and again shows a discrepancy compared to the Estimator. Dual motor here shows mid 2018 but SR is also late 2018.

344B687B-09D0-4104-9475-9215D1A8A11A.jpeg
 
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#6
I told you so.

I don’t think it’s a margin issue. I think it’s a battery production issue.
I am no production and battery expert, but if they can make long range battery, shouldn't they be able to make the smaller size battery for SR?

BTW, on the delivery estimator, AWD still say "Choice of 220 or 310 mile range"
But I think they will only have LR+AWD at the beginning.

I hope they can provide LR+non-PUP option, that is what I want.
 
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#7
I just checked my delivery estimator and the dates are updated.
Was
LR: Feb-Apr
SR: mid 2018
AWD: Oct-Dec

Now
LR: May-July
SR: early 2019
AWD: late 2018

Seems like Tesla is pushing SR to even after AWD to get more margin
Exact same changes in my estimator. Bummer.
 

Brokedoc

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#8
I didn't think they would do it. Could be the battery... But there are less in the SR. Shouldn't that be quicker to make?
I believe that Panasonic can supply as many battery cells that Tesla needs. The problem may be the robots making the modules automatically and manual labor is needed for bottleneck steps. Packing less modules may not help improve the bottleneck step. It may only reduce the amount of margin for the limited packs per day that would be produced while also complicating the existing battery production line by adding variables.

Tesla needs to make the same LR battery config consistently and quickly before they will start throwing variables into the production line.
 
Last edited:

Bokonon

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#9
My estimate has updated too, and it's much more than the one-month delay that I was expecting.

East coast, non-owner, line-waiter, reserved 11:30am.

Was
LR: Dec. - Feb
Base: Early 2018
AWD: Sep - Nov 2018

Now
LR: Mar - May
Base: Late 2018
AWD: Late 2018

I think the part that disappoints me the most is that the AWD timeline is no longer a specific three-month window, but a vague generality, just like the base configuration had been before. With my current lease up at the end of September, I may have to re-evaluate my inclination to wait for AWD.

Question: does anyone here (line-waiting, existing owners in California particularly) have an AWD estimate that is either "Mid 2018" or a specific three-month window of any sort? (Guessing I'll find out in just a few minutes if I keep refreshing this thread...)

ETA: Yup, seems like current Tesla owners who waited in line have an AWD estimate of "Mid 2018" and a Standard Battery estimate of "Late 2018".
 
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Bokonon

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#10
FYI my owner priority reservation that I deferred now shows First production delivery in 3-6 weeks if I choose to configure now and both SR and Dual Motor have been pushed to “late 2018”.

View attachment 5517

The configurator also was updated and again shows a discrepancy compared to the Estimator. Dual motor here shows mid 2018 but SR is also late 2018.

View attachment 5518
Well, those two screenshots pretty much confirm the theory that AWD has leapfrogged the standard battery from a production-planning perspective.

The large discrepancy between AWD availability date and estimated delivery date continues to puzzle me, but the net takeaway there seems to be that these AWD dates now finally reflect the one-quarter delay in the ramp vs. the original production plan, whereas previously they did not.
 

UncleT

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#11
I didn't think they would do it. Could be the battery... But there are less in the SR. Shouldn't that be quicker to make?
I am no production and battery expert, but if they can make long range battery, shouldn't they be able to make the smaller size battery for SR?
I don't think it's the same pack with fewer cells, I think they will need to learn to make a significantly different pack.
 
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Bokonon

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#12
I am no production and battery expert, but if they can make long range battery, shouldn't they be able to make the smaller size battery for SR?
I didn't think they would do it. Could be the battery... But there are less in the SR. Shouldn't that be quicker to make?
It's not the battery cells themselves that are the bottleneck, it's the pack assembly process. On the call today, Elon mentioned that pack assembly is currently a semi-autonomous process, with some degree of human intervention and supervision required. Until the assembly process becomes fully automated, they'll want to keep variation and complexity to a minimum, which means producing a single pack type (the LR).
 

Alighieri256

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#14
I told you so.

I don’t think it’s a margin issue. I think it’s a battery production issue.
Yeah, you had the AWD coming first thing nailed.

As to the reason, I respectfully disagree. Adding AWD is a much more complicated undertaking than putting in a smaller battery. There's not really a reason they have to even redesign the pack housing, just put ~30% fewer cells in. I think the decision has more to do with how much it costs to have an assembly line that isn't running terribly well. Making money on the truly base car requires everything to be running smoothly, while top end configs have a little more buffer to help pay for QA, NCM, etc.

A loss leader only works if you have a way to upsell.
 

Ken Voss

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#16
I just checked my delivery estimator and the dates are updated.
Was
LR: Feb-Apr
SR: mid 2018
AWD: Oct-Dec

Now
LR: May-July
SR: early 2019
AWD: late 2018

Seems like Tesla is pushing SR to even after AWD to get more margin
Yep me too. in line on 3/31/16 in California, just date just moved from Dec-Feb to March-May. Standard and Dual motor both "Late 2018"
 

Brokedoc

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#17
Yeah, you had the AWD coming first thing nailed.

As to the reason, I respectfully disagree. Adding AWD is a much more complicated undertaking than putting in a smaller battery. There's not really a reason they have to even redesign the pack housing, just put ~30% fewer cells in. I think the decision has more to do with how much it costs to have an assembly line that isn't running terribly well. Making money on the truly base car requires everything to be running smoothly, while top end configs have a little more buffer to help pay for QA, NCM, etc.

A loss leader only works if you have a way to upsell.
I'm not saying that AWD is uncomplicated. I'm saying that the Fremont ramp is on schedule whereas the battery ramp is behind. Instead of having the Fremont robots idle, it makes more sense to take advantage of the Fremont downtime to retool for a high margin option.

A few more things about the revised dates:
#1 - many of us including myself are disappointed about the large shift in windows. Clearly Tesla is behind their production estimates but if the windows only got pushed back one month we would still be disappointed only to be disappointed again if the dates needed to be revised next month. Tesla did a smart thing by pushing the estimates by a wider margin to reduce the chance they would need to disappoint again. If they're wrong and deliver sooner, everyone is happy.

#2 the revised SR/AWD dates tells me A LOT about configuration demand. Although a lot of the employee group may have deferred their reservations for SR or SR+AWD, deferring owners (who could already afford the more expensive S or X) likely deferred for AWD. This is reflected in the estimate for AWD being late 2018 (or mid 2018 in the configurator) even though I suspect that AWD has already started a slow ramp. This is also reflected in the fact that delivery VINs are currently at about 8,000 but the owner invite pool has almost been completed. The vast majority are waiting.

#3 by end of 2018Q2, production is projected to be at 5,000/wk and by end of 2018Q4 may be 7500-10,000/wk. At that volume, almost all reservations can be fulfilled in a matter of months and international deliveries can begin as long as proper regulatory approvals are obtained. Therefore, there should be no significant changes in estimates for international or very recent reservationists as long as the ramp curve remains intact.
 

DaGlot

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#18
Bokonon's changes are the same as mine. This is the second delay revision to my estimator screen.

I'm a non owner line stander in Maryland. For the large battery pack PUP etc it's now March - May 2018 but given these delays I'm beginning to worry that estimate really doesn't mean a lot. Well my Leaf is almost through winter perhaps I can wait til fall.

We had such a nice start to the week with the Falcon Heavy launch.

It's Elon's promised something special - he's figured out how to get me to develop a Zen like sense of patience.

Om.......

Dave
 
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#19
The original pitch on the Model 3 was $35,000 for the base model, $27,500 after the tax incentive. Given the new prioritization of AWD, I believe the $27,500 car will never exist. The incentive will expire first.
 

Griff

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#20
This is devastating for those of us (who I believe are many) are stretching to afford an SR model with the rebate. At this point the rebate will most likely be halved by the time I can get the SR model. Luckily this also means that I will be able to save more money.