My forecast range is Jan~Mar 2018. Since TM3 is an extra vehicle for us, not planning to cancel due to delay. We plan to swap out our 3rd car whenever TM3 is delivered for one of the existing vehicles.
I’m certainly no ‘fanboy’ so will not wait an eternity, that said I am in no rush and do not need to buy anything, as my current car is not even two years old yet.
When we get them in the UK (2019ish) I will then compare it to what else is on the market and then make an informed decision, based on spec available and price.
I have a nagging feeling that during this 14+ month wait there will be a fair bit of competition around by then, time will tell...
I'll wait until something better hits the market in this category. Right now, I don't see anything that comes close on the horizon, so although I put 10-12 (my expectation) the real answer is probably closer to 2020 when other manufacturers pick up their game. Even then, I think the 3 will be a class leader.
I've waited 18 months, and my 11.5 year old Prius still works fine, so the waiting is not at issue. I selected 6-9 months because a delay longer than that indicates fundamental issues with manufacturing which makes me nervous about the car. I still hope to be pleasantly surprised, despite assuming the worst about manufacturing hell.
I'm not sure I answered your poll correctly (I just did the poll without reading your post first!) I chose 1-3 months... because I will buy a Model S if it's going to be any longer than that, and just hold my reservation for a performance Model 3 that is probably at least two years out. So 1-3 months is how long I'll wait...but regardless I'm not cancelling my reservation.
I voted 10-12, but really it will depend on my 13 yo Honda Insight. I would be fine with waiting longer than a year as long as my Insight still runs, which I don’t see as a problem since it only has 100k miles on it.
I'm gonna have to be honest, as much as I love the Model 3, the Bolt has been very tempting at under $200/month lease, especially since my Model 3 will be upwards of $1k+, but granted I'll be getting a lot more for that money, and it'll be a purchase not a lease. Most likely I'll wait it out unless something better comes along. I'm thinking if it gets delayed until end of 2019, I'll have a lot of options at that price point.
Replacing my perfectly good Accord with the TM3, so not too concerned about when I get it. Obviously by the end of the year would be ideal, but the utter lack of news on real customer deliveries is not inspiring confidence in that timeline.
Still can't bring myself to pay Model S money for transportation, so its the 3 or bust.
Tesla007 - If my answer is 6 months, which button do I click? I will be clicking it while riding in my Model X that I don't own so no worry on letting me know quickly. This car is even more comfortable than my imaginary Model S (any tips you can give me on how to properly care for such a car?), so I can be patient. Maybe I'll just go with 7 months to avoid the issue, but it might be a challenge since I've never owned a Tesla and am really excited for it, even though I love my Tesla's seats and may just end up buying another Model S.
I chose eternity, but mainly just because of the lack of a choice over 12 months. My true breaking point is somewhere between 12 months and eternity. My estimate is Jan-Mar, 2018. If I don't get mine by the end of 2020 and there are other options available on the market (BMW, Volvo, etc), my tune may change.
Everyone always quotes the 12-18 month slip for Model X. I don't see how that happens with Model 3. It is infinitely less complex of a car to manufacture with many fewer parts. The only unknown is whether or not Tesla can scale their manufacturing up from the current 80k cars/year to their goal of 500k/year. But, in reality, I don't even need that to happen since I am relatively close to the front of the line.
I'm a March 31st reservation owner, and I put 9-12 months which is probably about right. My estimate is Oct-Dec 2017, so I'm thinking I'll be able to order soon for a delivery in December. If that got delayed to next autumn... well, I could live with it. I have a perfectly functional car that I'm pretty happy with. I'm in no particular hurry and I haven't found another car that I'm more interested in buying than the Model 3.
I would say that while I could live with a 9-12 month delay, as an early reservation holder if it pushed out that far, I'd have substantial worries about the future of Tesla as a company... and I can't even imagine the carnage on the stock market.
I still believe that with my Oct-Dec 2017 estimate, that I will have my car and be driving it around before Christmas.
Picked 10-12 months. Currently the estimator says end of 2018 for Canada. I think that is a major worst case scenario but I'd rather swallow that pill now and be surprised. I do need a second car pretty bad. It's going to be a struggle sharing a car but its doable. If Tesla looks to miss a 2018 delivery for me I may consider a used S. Can't pay more then 50 ish but I've been seeing some decent 2013s for 50-55CAD.
In Ontario, there will be a general election next June. It could lead to our rebate being canceled or reduced. Assuming I can test a Model 3 before then, my deadline (6-9 months) is to decide which Tesla I’m buying.