Decided to cancel

Grashelm

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#1
Today I made the decision to cancel my Model 3 reservation. I was a day 2 reservation holder with a Jun - Aug first production estimate. I might have mentioned in a couple of other posts that my desired config was a base 3 with EAP as long as I could get it with the Full $7500 tax credit. That's not going to happen unfortunately. I did hem and haw and seriously considered buying a first production vehicle, but just couldn't convince myself to pull the trigger. For me, the value proposition just isn't there for the current config (not an issue of financial means because I could easily pay cash for it - just a personal opinion on value). Fortunately, I am not in need of a vehicle at the moment, so plan on watching the rollout and maybe picking one up in a few years (which will also provide time for the maturation of EAP and FSD which I am most certainly interested in). Good Luck to all those waiting (some will be that much closer after my cancellation!) and glad those new Model 3 owners are enjoying their cars!! Will continue to follow the forum to stay up to date with evolution of the Tesla revolution. Cheers!
 

TrevP

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#2
Sorry to hear that you cancelled however I find it a bit premature to cancel given the ramp is increasing and cancelling too soon might bite you back should the tax credit not phase out as quickly as you thought and the base model does appear
 

2170pwr

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#3
Yeah. Makes the most sense to keep the reservation until you are 100% sure, unless you need to use the $1000 right now. If cancel your reservation and invested that $1000 at an APY of 3% for 3 years you earn $93. Seems a small price to pay for your place in line.
 

TheTony

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#4
Sorry to hear that you cancelled however I find it a bit premature to cancel given the ramp is increasing and cancelling too soon might bite you back should the tax credit not phase out as quickly as you thought and the base model does appear
I fully agree with the idea of holding off on cancelling - if OP has let it ride this long, it'd be prudent to let things sit for a few more months before taking action to get their money back. If nothing else, the next few months should provide a lot of clarity around things like the production ramp, production options, etc.

That said, the idea that a base configuration option appears before the full credit disappears seems somewhat unlikely. Between white seats and AWD, which we're supposed to see this summer, it's apparent Tesla is still understandably focused on the higher margin variants and this'll probably remain the case until near the end of this year. If the number of people deciding to wait and citing AWD, or performance or other configuration options bears out, that is.

Still, in the unlikely event that the credit gets extended, or base config arrives sooner than expected, or OP reconsiders and decides to get one in a year, keeping the reservation for the time being would keep their place in line, just in case. However, I understand their decision.
 

tivoboy

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#6
If you are June-Aug, they you are most certainly going to get the full tax credit. My thinking is, at this point, even with the LR requirement (and the other options I would have bought already, PUP,EAP,Paint) in a year (or less), the car will be worth probably what I net paid for it, not including taxes of course - but maybe. So, whatever it takes for me to finance the purchase till then (about 300$ a year) I figure I can see if I like it, find out more about if electric can truly fit into our lifestyle, and pretty much get my money out in a year.
 

MelindaV

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#7
That said, the idea that a base configuration option appears before the full credit disappears seems somewhat unlikely. Between white seats and AWD, which we're supposed to see this summer, it's apparent Tesla is still understandably focused on the higher margin variants and this'll probably remain the case until near the end of this year.
even before taking the new variants into consideration, my delivery estimate from Tesla for SR is Early 2019 (and my first available estimate is earlier than the @Grashelm's), so I would say even without any further hiccups, and best case on the 200k car sold in Q3, not Q2, only the very earliest SRs would get the full credit. if the 200k is sold in Q2, I doubt any would get the full credit.
 

Grashelm

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#9
even before taking the new variants into consideration, my delivery estimate from Tesla for SR is Early 2019 (and my first available estimate is earlier than the @Grashelm's), so I would say even without any further hiccups, and best case on the 200k car sold in Q3, not Q2, only the very earliest SRs would get the full credit. if the 200k is sold in Q2, I doubt any would get the full credit.
My thought process with regards to my decision to cancel is most closely aligned with MelindaV's assessment. It's a done deal at this point and whether I am right or not will be known in the not to distant future.
 

Veloaudio

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#11
I understand completely. I reserved late day 4/1/16 and have a Jun-Aug window. I expect that to officially push out any day now (despite the ramp). I didn't cancel but I did pull the trigger on a CPO S today.

I'm keeping the Model 3 reservation for now just to see how things play out. I'm guessing I will get owner priority now but I'll be happy with Model S.

Glad to hear your sticking around and good luck on the path to electric.
 

KarenRei

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#12
Sorry to hear that you cancelled however I find it a bit premature to cancel given the ramp is increasing and cancelling too soon might bite you back should the tax credit not phase out as quickly as you thought and the base model does appear
Agreed. Tesla seems to be offloading Model 3 deliveries to Canada to try to push the 200k limit to Q3. Meaning full credits in Q3 and Q4. Yet they appear to be very much on their way to 5k/wk, possibly even 6k/wk, by the end of the quarter.
 

summerfun

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#13
even before taking the new variants into consideration, my delivery estimate from Tesla for SR is Early 2019 (and my first available estimate is earlier than the @Grashelm's), so I would say even without any further hiccups, and best case on the 200k car sold in Q3, not Q2, only the very earliest SRs would get the full credit. if the 200k is sold in Q2, I doubt any would get the full credit.
Melinda

Based on the slowdown of configuration emails I am convinced that Tesla will delay #200K until after July 1. That will give them another full 6 months (until 12/31) of full FITC sales. If they screw up and pass the line in June all 4Q sales would get the 50% reduction. If that happens some heads need to roll (of those left anyway).
 

summerfun

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#14
My thought process with regards to my decision to cancel is most closely aligned with MelindaV's assessment. It's a done deal at this point and whether I am right or not will be known in the not to distant future.
Keep us posted on any contact from Tesla. One post on TMC said despite his cancellation, Tesla told him they were holding his spot in line. So you might still be able to get back in if Tesla moves up the SR battery.
 

MelindaV

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#15
Melinda

Based on the slowdown of configuration emails I am convinced that Tesla will delay #200K until after July 1. That will give them another full 6 months (until 12/31) of full FITC sales. If they screw up and pass the line in June all 4Q sales would get the 50% reduction. If that happens some heads need to roll (of those left anyway).
from a shareholder point of view, if they were ready to hit 200k in April/May, they should have issued those cars - not sit on them for 1 1/2 to 2 months. Now, if they were hitting 200k the 3rd week of June, yes. They should hold them for July 1st.
 

KarenRei

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#16
From a shareholder point of view, if they were ready to hit 200k in April/May, they should ship those cars to Canada rather than cause Model 3 reservation holders who can't afford the vehicle without the credit to be forced to jump ship to a lesser EV or an ICE and thus not be in the potential Tesla buying pool for another 3-7 years.

Tesla demand is greater than current supply, but it's not limitless. If playing the country game works out well for Tesla.. then by all means. I likewise hope they're prioritizing Europe/China/Canada Model S deliveries over the US, since those count too.

Q3 and Q4 they can go all out on the US. EU spec production isn't supposed to start until Q1.
 

Grashelm

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#17
Keep us posted on any contact from Tesla. One post on TMC said despite his cancellation, Tesla told him they were holding his spot in line. So you might still be able to get back in if Tesla moves up the SR battery.
Only contact from Tesla at this point is the return of my deposit (2 days ACH...fast!).
 
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#18
Cancelled my Model 3 order today. I was stretched to purchase but the $14,000 EV rebate cancellation did me in. Not giving up: just stepping back and hope the Federal Government (not holding my breath) will step up with some sort of rebate.
 

Michael Russo

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#19
Cancelled my Model 3 order today. I was stretched to purchase but the $14,000 EV rebate cancellation did me in. Not giving up: just stepping back and hope the Federal Government (not holding my breath) will step up with some sort of rebate.
Sorry to read that, Robert, yet understandable. Keep it up!
Greetings from France!
 

KarenRei

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#20
Cancelled my Model 3 order today. I was stretched to purchase but the $14,000 EV rebate cancellation did me in. Not giving up: just stepping back and hope the Federal Government (not holding my breath) will step up with some sort of rebate.
Very understandable, Robert - my heartfelt sympathies :(

Keep watching those used markets - you never know! There will be plenty of people who bought RWD but now want to upgrade to AWD or P.