Deadline for Guaranteed Delivery by End of the Year (Updated: Nov 30)

GDN

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#2
I first thought this was S and X only, as it's listed near the top of their order page, but they've got the same disclaimer on the 3 as well, lower right side of the page.

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#3
Seems like there is low demand than production capacity, otherwise if 200k folks were to put down money there is no way they can produce and delivery before dec 31st.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#4
Seems like there is low demand than production capacity, otherwise if 200k folks were to put down money there is no way they can produce and delivery before dec 31st.
If there was a surge in orders they could always remove that language knowing when it wouldn’t be true. Also, it’s still highly likely people will order after 10/15 and still get a car this year based on logistics and lucky configurations.
 

Gavyne

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#5
Seems like there is low demand than production capacity, otherwise if 200k folks were to put down money there is no way they can produce and delivery before dec 31st.
That's not how I see it. This is Tesla's way of ensuring people can't order in November then get mad at them for not delivering the vehicle by end of December. It's kind of a disclaimer for them so they don't get in trouble with people who place orders after 15th and expect to get their cars before Jan 2019.

Pretty smart if you ask me, because the outrage would be a PR nightmare. Now, they only need to guarantee deliveries to those placing orders by Oct 15th.
 

garsh

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#6
Seems like there is low demand than production capacity
In a sense, yes. What's implied here is that Tesla believes that they have the capacity to produce & deliver all *currently offered* models by the end of the year, even with a few more orders placed within the next 3 days. The pessimist might see that as a sign of low demand. I think it's more likely that they've finally been able to increase their production rate to the point of outrunning their current demand rate. :)

At this point, it's extremely easy for Tesla to increase demand whenever they want. Right now, they just offer little incentives like this - order now to get the full federal tax incentive. That's pretty much relying on word-of-mouth. That generally will not increase demand in huge numbers. This is just a little tweak to demand. Tesla does almost *nothing* to generate demand for their product. They don't pay for advertising. You can ask random people on the street, and half of them will have no idea what Tesla is. They continue to rely on word-of-mouth as well as whatever press they end up getting (positive or negative, it still makes people aware of the company). Also, keep in mind that the cheapest car you can order is $49k. The total market for cars starting at this price isn't enormous. Demand will more than double when they're able to offer a $35k car.
 

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#7
I think this is a good indicator that they are finally starting to get caught up on back orders and can handle the possible influx in orders if this pans out for them. Makes me more hopeful that my order might finally get fulfilled sooner than later! :)
 
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RoadToLevel5

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#10
The bad news though is that it now becomes clear that no buyer of the base ($35,000) version of the Model 3 will benefit from the full credit.
:(

Now the only hope may be if the bill to remove the 200k vehicle cap is passed. On the flip side, the entire tax credit could go away by a new law before the phase out.
 

Nick Momrik

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#11
Seems like an aggressive guarantee for a company that has been by all accounts absolutely terrible at estimating Model 3 deliveries to the customer so far. If they don't make the deadline are they going to drop the price of the car for those people?
 

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#12
Seems like an aggressive guarantee for a company that has been by all accounts absolutely terrible at estimating Model 3 deliveries to the customer so far. If they don't make the deadline are they going to drop the price of the car for those people?
At a minimum, Tesla would offer a full refund of any order deposits that didn't qualify for the full $7500 tax credit due to a production hold-up that caused a delay into 2019. I really doubt they would eat the $3750 (some buyers can't even make use of the full $7500 anyway).
 
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#13
I'm sure Tesla can continue ramping up their production of Model 3's to satisfy demand before December 31st. However, I'm not sure Tesla will actually be able to deliver these vehicles to customers outside of California given all the shenanigans and delivery problems that Tesla is currently causing/suffering. Let's hope they get their delivery hell solved before then.
 
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#14
Thanks Gav. I’m so glad you posted this. I was without cell or internet from Thursday to Sunday. I saw your post yesterday and placed my order last night. Woo hoo!
 

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#15
Tesla should focus on guaranteeing the current reservation holders who ordered the car months ago will receive their cars and the full tax credit. While it might be implied in the Oct 15 deadline, the end of the 3rd quarter delivery rush and after AND seeing people who have ordered in August or later with no reservation ever already taking delivery, has left me less than hopeful that they are curing the backlog and not just delivering vehicles at the higher price point to people who ordered recently.
 

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#16
Tesla should focus on guaranteeing the current reservation holders who ordered the car months ago will receive their cars and the full tax credit. While it might be implied in the Oct 15 deadline, the end of the 3rd quarter delivery rush and after AND seeing people who have ordered in August or later with no reservation ever already taking delivery, has left me less than hopeful that they are curing the backlog and not just delivering vehicles at the higher price point to people who ordered recently.
I was one of those back orders, just got my VIN recently so maybe they are catching up. I feel that the last few weeks of production have been dedicated to the back logs, it seems like a lot of people that got skipped over during the Q3 push are starting to get VIN's and delivery dates.
 
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#17
So, my question is.... Do they (Tesla) have inventory sitting somewhere? I am waiting for my Model 3 AWD Performance with a current delivery of Dec 18th. This is really close for me, I can see this getting bumped 2 weeks and I miss the Dec 31 cutoff. I would love to just call and get a inventory car that is just sitting, waiting for someone like to to adopt it and love it!!
 

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#18
So, my question is.... Do they (Tesla) have inventory sitting somewhere? I am waiting for my Model 3 AWD Performance with a current delivery of Dec 18th. This is really close for me, I can see this getting bumped 2 weeks and I miss the Dec 31 cutoff. I would love to just call and get a inventory car that is just sitting, waiting for someone like to to adopt it and love it!!
I suspect you have a better than 99% chance of getting delivery before the end of the year (and probably quite a bit sooner).
 

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#20
They can't even get through the backlog of reservation holders and people who configured before the summer so I'm not sure how they expect to guarantee delivery for anyone who ordered before October 15. But they are also all over the place so I'm sure some who order after October 15 will get it before the end of the year and some who ordered before will not.