Could Tesla really have over one million Cybertruck pre-orders?

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Jeda - Tesla Tech Accessories
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Originally published at https://evannex.com on June 8, 2021.

It has been over a year since the Cybertruck was formally unveiled and it still remains one of the most controversial production vehicles ever to hit the market. Its sci-fi, futuristic (albeit apocalyptic) looks have drawn questions whether the design might be far too radical to be successful.

Above: Tesla's Cybertruck (Source: Tesla)

Those fears were soon quelled when Musk tweeted out that Tesla had received about a quarter-million reservations for the Cybertruck within about 48 hours of opening pre-orders. Since then, the Tesla community has been using crowdsourced data to get an estimate regarding how many reservation holders there are for Tesla’s all-electric pickup truck.

One of the datasets that we've been watching since the reveal now estimates that there are over one million reservations for the Cybertruck. The tracker has over 18,000 entries and extrapolates the total reservations based on the reservation numbers given to reservation holders. This assumes serial numbering for the Cybertruck — Tesla has done it with their reservations in the past, so there is some precedence that it can work again.

Of course, we have to keep in mind that a reservation for a Cybertruck only requires a refundable $100 deposit, so a reservation does not necessarily mean an order will go through. Still, it doesn’t look like Tesla will have many demand problems regarding the Cybertruck.

Above: A look at some footage of Tesla's Cybertruck driving on the streets of New York City (YouTube: Tesla Intelligence UK)

Currently, the single motor option is by far the least popular option, no doubt in part to the increased waiting time to get it. The dual and tri-motor options however are very close in terms of take rate (at the time of this writing): Single-motor: 7.5%; Dual-motor: 48%; Tri-motor: 44.48%.

Additionally, a whopping 74.4% of reservation holders have chosen to take the FSD package as well. And, most surprisingly, only about 27% of reservation holders are prior Tesla owners, meaning that the Cybertruck really extends its appeal to an audience outside the typical Tesla buyer. Despite the looks that so many observers were worried about, it looks like this beast attracts more folks than just those diehard Tesla fanboys out there.

Tesla still plans to have the Cybertruck scheduled to start production by the end of this year. While the Texas Gigafactory is under construction, the Model Y portion of the factory will be ready before the Cybertruck portion. At this stage, we haven't seen the Cybertruck in its fully production-ready state as Musk has noted that there have been some changes compared to what we initially saw at the unveiling.

Even if Tesla does manage to make the electric truck this year, we can’t imagine that they will be made in meaningful numbers until next year. One thing’s for sure though, they are going to have to go through a heck of a backlog.

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Originally published at https://evannex.com on June 8, 2021.

An earlier version of this article appeared on EVBite. EVBite is an electric vehicle specific news site dedicated to keeping consumers up-to-date on any developments in the ever-expanding EV landscape.
 
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