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Did your model 3 delivery estimate get updated today?

Canadian Delivery Estimates Updated

33K views 220 replies 47 participants last post by  RGC 
#1 ·
This just happened today, I had checked just yesterday and it had just simply stated "Late 2018". I posted this in Model 3 facebook group and reddit, looks like a lot of Americans had their delivery estimates updated today but instead of pushed forward, had them pushed back? Wonder if its because Tesla has reached that 200k tax credit limit...

thoughts? any other Canadians here have their delivery estimates updated?
 

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#3 ·
Mid 2018 for First Production and AWD???? Something ain't right there... :confused:

Just confirming: you're not a current Tesla owner, correct? (Welcome, BTW!)
 
#6 · (Edited)
My estimate got pushed from Late 208 to Mid 2018. I'm a March 31 online order. Perhaps this is evidence that Tesla is gaming the system. If they can't get to 200K in the US before the next quarter they may slow things down by sending some production to Canada?? This would allow them to maximize the US tax credit by hitting 200K at the optimum time?? My two cents...

....or its a bug :)
 
#10 · (Edited)
My estimate got pushed from Late 208 to Mid 2018. I'm a March 31 online order. Perhaps this is evidence that Tesla is gaming the system. If they can't get to 200K in the US before the next quarter they may slow things down by sending some production to Canada?? This would allow them to maximize the US tax credit by hitting 200K at the optimum time?? My two cents...
Interesting. Based on the calculations I've seen discussed here and elsewhere, it seems like the odds of Tesla hitting the 200K threshold sometime in Q2 are pretty close to 100%. It would take a significant diversion of Q2 Model S/X production to non-U.S. buyers to avoid crossing that line. Is it possible? Sure, they could probably pull it off... but it would also cause a significant delivery delay for anyone who wanted to buy an S or X here in the U.S., and I don't know that Tesla would want to risk those higher-margin sales.

Separately, wouldn't Tesla have to make changes to the Model 3 production process in order to build a car that complies with Canadian regulations? I don't know off-hand what those changes would be and how involved they are, but it seems like they would introduce additional manufacturing complexity and therefore further delay the ramp.

EDIT: @Evoto Rentals just posted a partial list of requirements for registering a vehicle in Canada here.
 
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#7 ·
Canadian, non-owner, online pre-reveal. First production: mid 2018, Standard Range Early 2019, AWD Mid 2018.

It used to be Late 2018 for all.

Side note:
Is that pushed back or pushed forward? Does pushed back mean back in time? Like earlier? Or pushed back from us.. like further away from us???
 
#20 ·
Canadian, non-owner, online pre-reveal. First production: mid 2018, Standard Range Early 2019, AWD Mid 2018.

It used to be Late 2018 for all.

Side note:
Is that pushed back or pushed forward? Does pushed back mean back in time? Like earlier? Or pushed back from us.. like further away from us???
Canadian, non-owner, online pre-reveal. First production: mid 2018, Standard Range Early 2019, AWD Mid 2018.

It used to be Late 2018 for all.

Side note:
Is that pushed back or pushed forward? Does pushed back mean back in time? Like earlier? Or pushed back from us.. like further away from us???
I have exactly the same thing. Wow, can't believe it. Ontario residents may be able to get our M3's before a change in government kills our EV incentives.

For the survey, I'm taking pushed forward as brought forward (earlier) in time.
 
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#9 ·
HOLY COW!!!!
Your delivery estimates for AWD is EARLIER than mine as an owner 3/31 reservation!!!!!
Plus, your First Production and SR estimates are the same as my 4/1 nonowner reservation.

Either there is a bug or Tesla is making adjustments possibly for targeting of the 200k point.

It sucks as owner to get mine after a 3rd day reservation international nonowner but I would absolutely make the sacrifice if more Americans can take advantage of the tax credit!
 
#11 ·
Looks like Tesla needs the help of our Canadian friends to get as many first production cars out the door before mixing up configurations or being forced by lack of US FP orders to start the SR version.
 
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#13 ·
#14 ·
So maybe Tesla is playing invite games like they did here in the U.S.

They released a bunch of invites to the Northeast on the day of a snow blizzard knowing many would defer for AWD.
Maybe they're targeting invites early knowing actual conversions will be low?

Quick calculations show that USD:CAD needs to drop to 1.16 for the $49,000 First Production to come under your $57,000CAD threshold. It's possible....
 
#16 ·
I just check the configurator for Model X and it's estimating LATE MAY!!! That's a 3 1/2 month lead time!!! Something is up...

I wonder is any of our Canadian friends can check their Model S and Model X configurator estimates...

*** EDIT ***
Curious that the X75D is estimated Late May but the X100D is Late March.
Model S is Late March for all batteries.
Very strange.
 
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#19 ·
i don't what is going on but it's very irritating that my reservation just got pushed back, not 6 hours after calling them @ (888) 518-3752

inquiring about my delivery estimator window of December to February - if it takes 4 weeks to build - i think they are going to pass this date.

Meanwhile current Tesla owners that can shell out 100k + for the S or X are putting their Model 3s they already have delivered up for sale - trying to make more money & taking the tax credits for cars they obviously don't want & just prolonging deliveries to those who actually want the car & need the tax credit

i was # 42 in line on the morning of 03/31 in Scottsdale AZ
i am not a current Tesla owner

originally my delivery estimator was November to January
after the 1st production delay email on 11/01/17 - my delivery estimator was moved to December to February

6 hours after i get off the phone with Tesla - i now get an email moving my delivery estimator to MARCH to MAY for a 1st run

pushing delivery out another 4 months & 5 months from the original date

seems rather suspect on the timing...

anyone else?
 
#30 ·
are putting their Model 3s they already have delivered up for sale - trying to make more money & taking the tax credits for cars they obviously don't want
Observer from the peanut gallery here: IIRC, doesn't one have to own the car for a certain length of time to be able to claim the US federal tax credit?
 
#25 ·
I'm seeing the same thing as everyone else. Just my luck, I bought a Clarity PHEV last month which qualified for the full Ontario EV rebate but you have to keep the car for a minimum of 12 months or else pay back the rebate. So even if the Model 3 is available here this year I have to wait until at least January, 2019 because the plan is to trade it in on the Tesla. D'oh!
 
#34 ·
Just checked mine. Living in Ontario. We reserved in April 2016. First Tesla. Our estimator now says:
First production: mid 2018
Single motor, 220 mile range: early 2019
Dual motor, either battery: mid 2018.

The price for first production was $49,000. Plus taxes. Darn.

We may have to hold off until late this year or early next year to save more down payment. Hopefully the trade-in value or sale of my current car will pay for the taxes.

But it is exciting!
 
#35 ·
Just checked mine. Living in Ontario. We reserved in April 2016. First Tesla. Our estimator now says:
First production: mid 2018
Single motor, 220 mile range: early 2019
Dual motor, either battery: mid 2018.

The price for first production was $49,000. Plus taxes. Darn.

We may have to hold off until late this year or early next year to save more down payment. Hopefully the trade-in value or sale of my current car will pay for the taxes.

But it is exciting!
That $49,000 first production price is USD plus $1000 delivery. That's black on black, no Autopilot and with 18" aero wheels. So $50,000 USD or Approximately $62,000 CDN + Ontario tax. So about $70,000.
 
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#38 ·
Your guess on numbers is right in line with mine Sandy. I'm in BC, 5k rebate - I'm expecting to be right around $75k after tax for a Dual Motor LR Premium, including the rebate. Yikes!
I know man! I'm looking at Dual AWD, EAP, PUP, color (if whites a color), 19"wheels and delivery. $62,500 USD + tax. $90k CDN or so.
 
#37 ·
I’ll go out on a limb here. Canada SR battery pushed back to 2019. Tesla account says First Production Mid 2018. That I believe. They are already building them. Dual Motor AWD with either SR 220 or LR 310 Mid 2018 A’s stated in my Tesla account? Not a chance. My bet is that was supposed to read Mid 2019.
 
#39 ·
I'll go out on a limb here. Canada SR battery pushed back to 2019. Tesla account says First Production Mid 2018. That I believe. They are already building them. Dual Motor AWD with either SR 220 or LR 310 Mid 2018 A's stated in my Tesla account? Not a chance. My bet is that was supposed to read Mid 2019.
It's looking like Tesla now plans to make AWD available before SR.
  • Canadians seeing earlier estimate for AWD than SR.
  • Some Americans are seeing the same thing (by a month or two).
  • I'm actually seeing a "Late 2018" estimate for both now, whereas I had an earlier estimate for SR before yesterday's updates.
And... We know there are about four dozen AWD vins allocated, and... we've seen Franz driving an AWD version of the Model 3.
 
#58 ·
Looking at all the datapoints in this thread, it really appears that Tesla is going to try to defer deliveries to Canada sometime near the end of Q2 in order to "game" the 200,000th delivery in the US.

This would mean they keep going down the US reservation list offering LR + PUP. At some point they introduce AWD and it becomes available to anyone who can configure (those who deferred on First Production).
THEN, once they're nearing the magic 200k number...
They basically hit pause on the US list, open up First Production and First Production AWD to Canada (in the same order they did for US list -> employees, owners, line waiters...).
On July 1st, they hit pause on the Canadian list and hit the US full throttle to cram in as many deliveries as they can over the next year (before the incentive dissapears completely).

As a bonus, doesn't this also line up with some kind of Ontario (?) credit that I've seen reference to online? I beleive it expires this summer?

I can see this having a couple positive effects: create goodwill and "buzz" for the Canadian market (who are all depressed at this point and assuming Late 2019 at the earliest, probably). And also providing tens of thousands of US customers with extra "play money" (the tax credit) to spend on options they would otherwise not consider or be able to afford.

Sounds crazy, I know, but the CEO of this company sent his car into outer space with a privately built rocket.
 
#61 ·
As a bonus, doesn't this also line up with some kind of Ontario (?) credit that I've seen reference to online? I beleive it expires this summer?
Just to set the record straight, the Ontario EV credit, which is a refund given after sales tax has been applied, and totals a considerable $14,000 for something like the M3, does not expire this summer. What is happening is a provincial election this summer, which is expected to result in a change in government from the ruling Liberal party to the climate-change-denying Conservatives (yes, we have those here too). The Conservatives have already promised to kill the climate change action plan enacted by the Liberals, and the EV credit is part of that plan.

So, Conservatives win the election (most likely will) and we lose a $14,000 refund.

Edit: @Jakesthree must have sent his post about the Ontario incentive while I was typing. Didn't mean to duplicate.
 
#59 ·
I wonder if Tesla is just trying to spread out deliveries as the production line speeds up. In other words every time weekly production increases by a certain amount they start delivering to more markets. That way there are no delivery centres that get swamped while others are twiddling their thumbs.
As far as the Ontario rebate, it doesn't have an expiry date but there is an election in June and a change of government could see the incentives disappear.
 
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