Canadian Delivery Estimates Updated

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Did your model 3 delivery estimate get updated today?


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Adam.Coco

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#1
This just happened today, I had checked just yesterday and it had just simply stated "Late 2018". I posted this in Model 3 facebook group and reddit, looks like a lot of Americans had their delivery estimates updated today but instead of pushed forward, had them pushed back? Wonder if its because Tesla has reached that 200k tax credit limit...

thoughts? any other Canadians here have their delivery estimates updated?
 

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EValuatED

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#2
US, 3/31 in store, and my desired AWD now pushed to "Late 2018."
 
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Bokonon

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#3
This just happened today, I had checked just yesterday and it had just simply stated "Late 2018". I posted this in Model 3 facebook group and reddit, looks like a lot of Americans had their delivery estimates updated today but instead of pushed forward, had them pushed back? Wonder if its because Tesla has reached that 200k tax credit limit...

thoughts? any other Canadians here have their delivery estimates updated?
Mid 2018 for First Production and AWD???? Something ain't right there... :confused:

Just confirming: you're not a current Tesla owner, correct? (Welcome, BTW!)
 

Adam.Coco

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#4
Mid 2018 for First Production and AWD???? Something ain't right there... :confused:

Just confirming: you're not a current Tesla owner, correct? (Welcome, BTW!)
Nope, not a current Tesla owner (though I convinced both my dad and brother to purchase one over the last two years), interesting! I wonder what is going on.
 

Bokonon

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#5
Nope, not a current Tesla owner (though I convinced both my dad and brother to purchase one over the last two years), interesting! I wonder what is going on.
Guessing there's a bug in the latest delivery-estimate calculations for non-U.S. deliveries... or you've won the AWD lottery. :)
 

redlightning

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#6
My estimate got pushed from Late 208 to Mid 2018. I'm a March 31 online order. Perhaps this is evidence that Tesla is gaming the system. If they can't get to 200K in the US before the next quarter they may slow things down by sending some production to Canada?? This would allow them to maximize the US tax credit by hitting 200K at the optimum time?? My two cents...

....or its a bug :)
 
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phigment

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#7
Canadian, non-owner, online pre-reveal. First production: mid 2018, Standard Range Early 2019, AWD Mid 2018.

It used to be Late 2018 for all.

Side note:
Is that pushed back or pushed forward? Does pushed back mean back in time? Like earlier? Or pushed back from us.. like further away from us???
 

Brokedoc

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#9
HOLY COW!!!!
Your delivery estimates for AWD is EARLIER than mine as an owner 3/31 reservation!!!!!
Plus, your First Production and SR estimates are the same as my 4/1 nonowner reservation.

Either there is a bug or Tesla is making adjustments possibly for targeting of the 200k point.

It sucks as owner to get mine after a 3rd day reservation international nonowner but I would absolutely make the sacrifice if more Americans can take advantage of the tax credit!
 

Bokonon

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#10
My estimate got pushed from Late 208 to Mid 2018. I'm a March 31 online order. Perhaps this is evidence that Tesla is gaming the system. If they can't get to 200K in the US before the next quarter they may slow things down by sending some production to Canada?? This would allow them to maximize the US tax credit by hitting 200K at the optimum time?? My two cents...
Interesting. Based on the calculations I've seen discussed here and elsewhere, it seems like the odds of Tesla hitting the 200K threshold sometime in Q2 are pretty close to 100%. It would take a significant diversion of Q2 Model S/X production to non-U.S. buyers to avoid crossing that line. Is it possible? Sure, they could probably pull it off... but it would also cause a significant delivery delay for anyone who wanted to buy an S or X here in the U.S., and I don't know that Tesla would want to risk those higher-margin sales.

Separately, wouldn't Tesla have to make changes to the Model 3 production process in order to build a car that complies with Canadian regulations? I don't know off-hand what those changes would be and how involved they are, but it seems like they would introduce additional manufacturing complexity and therefore further delay the ramp.

EDIT: @Evoto Rentals just posted a partial list of requirements for registering a vehicle in Canada here.
 
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Dogwhistle

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#11
Looks like Tesla needs the help of our Canadian friends to get as many first production cars out the door before mixing up configurations or being forced by lack of US FP orders to start the SR version.
 

Brokedoc

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#12
Interesting. Based on the calculations I've seen discussed here and elsewhere, it seems like the odds of Tesla hitting the 200K threshold sometime in Q2 are pretty close to 100%. It would take a significant diversion of Q2 Model S/X production to non-U.S. buyers to avoid crossing that line. Is it possible? Sure, they could probably pull it off... but it would also cause a significant delivery delay for anyone who wanted to buy an S or X here in the U.S., and I don't know that Tesla would want to risk those higher-margin sales.

Separately, wouldn't Tesla have to make changes to the Model 3 production process in order to build a car that complies with Canadian regulations? I don't know off-hand what those changes would be and how involved they are, but it seems like they would introduce additional manufacturing complexity and therefore further delay the ramp.
There has already been a VERY noticeable delay in S/X lead time from configuration to delivery. I know of many that tried to configure in Nov/Dec and got 3 month estimates. Current S configurator shows 6 week lead time.

S/X margins are almost the same whether the car is sold in U.S. or international. If anything, margins are GREATER for international sales due to the recent drop in dollar strength. I'm not saying that Tesla is gaming the deliveries to time the 200k point but all of the 2Q2018 estimates were based on steady S/X U.S. deliveries and continued ramp of 3 with deliveries exclusive to U.S. Tweaking the U.S. delivery numbers a little may put the 200k mark at a totally different part of the ramp curve and benefit a LARGE number of people.
 
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#13

Brokedoc

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#14
I'm not a Tesla owner, not an early reservationist either, reserved April 27, 2016. Mine also say Mid 2018 for first production and AWD.

One thing that's getting me though, they recently changed the rules for PST in BC. PST is applied to the cost before we get the incentive now, not after, and and AWD or first production car will likely put the car above 57k, meaning 10% PST!!!

https://www.autotrader.ca/newsfeatures/20171127/bc-plug-ins-to-become-pricier-beginning-december/
So maybe Tesla is playing invite games like they did here in the U.S.

They released a bunch of invites to the Northeast on the day of a snow blizzard knowing many would defer for AWD.
Maybe they're targeting invites early knowing actual conversions will be low?

Quick calculations show that USD:CAD needs to drop to 1.16 for the $49,000 First Production to come under your $57,000CAD threshold. It's possible....
 

Bokonon

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#15
There has already been a VERY noticeable delay in S/X lead time from configuration to delivery. I know of many that tried to configure in Nov/Dec and got 3 month estimates. Current S configurator shows 6 week lead time.
I noticed that too when I was playing around with the S configurator back in December... hence my wildly optimistic theory about an imminent S/X interior refresh. :) As an alternative explanation, I find this interesting, though it would have required a lot of foresight to plan that far ahead back in November/December, when they were still officially predicting 5K/week for December 2017 and about to push that prediction to March 2018.

S/X margins are almost the same whether the car is sold in U.S. or international. If anything, margins are GREATER for international sales due to the recent drop in dollar strength. I'm not saying that Tesla is gaming the deliveries to time the 200k point but all of the 2Q2018 estimates were based on steady S/X U.S. deliveries and continued ramp of 3 with deliveries exclusive to U.S. Tweaking the U.S. delivery numbers a little may put the 200k mark at a totally different part of the ramp curve and benefit a LARGE number of people.
I agree that it's possible that they could pull off such a move, but it would require a lot of careful planning and coordination, not to mention a lot of patience for would-be S/X owners. I also imagine that Tesla would have to retool (or at least tweak) the production process a bit for Canadian deliveries, and that doesn't seem like it fits with their current ramp-up plans.

I guess we'll have to see whether these dates hold over the coming days/weeks, or whether they are revised...
 

Brokedoc

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#16
I just check the configurator for Model X and it's estimating LATE MAY!!! That's a 3 1/2 month lead time!!! Something is up...

I wonder is any of our Canadian friends can check their Model S and Model X configurator estimates...

*** EDIT ***
Curious that the X75D is estimated Late May but the X100D is Late March.
Model S is Late March for all batteries.
Very strange.
 

Sandy

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#17
I just check the configurator for Model X and it's estimating LATE MAY!!! That's a 3 1/2 month lead time!!! Something is up...

I wonder is any of our Canadian friends can check their Model S and Model X configurator estimates...

*** EDIT ***
Curious that the X75D is estimated Late May but the X100D is Late March.
Model S is Late March for all batteries.
Very strange.
Late March for the S and late May for the X.
 
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#19
i don't what is going on but it's very irritating that my reservation just got pushed back, not 6 hours after calling them @ (888) 518-3752

inquiring about my delivery estimator window of December to February - if it takes 4 weeks to build - i think they are going to pass this date.

Meanwhile current Tesla owners that can shell out 100k + for the S or X are putting their Model 3s they already have delivered up for sale - trying to make more money & taking the tax credits for cars they obviously don't want & just prolonging deliveries to those who actually want the car & need the tax credit

i was # 42 in line on the morning of 03/31 in Scottsdale AZ
i am not a current Tesla owner

originally my delivery estimator was November to January
after the 1st production delay email on 11/01/17 - my delivery estimator was moved to December to February

6 hours after i get off the phone with Tesla - i now get an email moving my delivery estimator to MARCH to MAY for a 1st run

pushing delivery out another 4 months & 5 months from the original date

seems rather suspect on the timing...

anyone else?
 

JohnMon

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#20
Canadian, non-owner, online pre-reveal. First production: mid 2018, Standard Range Early 2019, AWD Mid 2018.

It used to be Late 2018 for all.

Side note:
Is that pushed back or pushed forward? Does pushed back mean back in time? Like earlier? Or pushed back from us.. like further away from us???
Canadian, non-owner, online pre-reveal. First production: mid 2018, Standard Range Early 2019, AWD Mid 2018.

It used to be Late 2018 for all.

Side note:
Is that pushed back or pushed forward? Does pushed back mean back in time? Like earlier? Or pushed back from us.. like further away from us???
I have exactly the same thing. Wow, can't believe it. Ontario residents may be able to get our M3's before a change in government kills our EV incentives.

For the survey, I'm taking pushed forward as brought forward (earlier) in time.