Buying a used model 3

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#1
Hello all. New to the forum and was just looking to see what peoples ideas are on buying a used/leased model 3 once all of the reservations are met. I realize this will take some time, 1-3 years, before this is a realistic option. However, with the general trend of used car depreciation, and the sharp drop in price year 1, it looks like a model 3 could be had for much less than 35k. Coupled with an electric drivetrain buying an m3 used doesnt seem like much of a headache. Just curious if anyone else is taking this route.
 

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Michael Russo

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#2
Hello all. New to the forum and was just looking to see what peoples ideas are on buying a used/leased model 3 once all of the reservations are met. I realize this will take some time, 1-3 years, before this is a realistic option. However, with the general trend of used car depreciation, and the sharp drop in price year 1, it looks like a model 3 could be had for much less than 35k. Coupled with an electric drivetrain buying an m3 used doesnt seem like much of a headache. Just curious if anyone else is taking this route.
Welcome... !
This is an intriguing thought that I surmise few of us reservation holders have given much attention too since we are impatiently waiting for our new cars...
To your point, it will be a while before this becomes actual. I don't see many people selling their purchased Model 3 soon. And if you are talking pre-leased cars, we'll be in 2020 very quickly I take it.
Am not exactly sure about factual numbers yet believe Model S hold their value pretty well on the used car market. Would imagine this will be at least as much the case for Model 3...
 

SoFlaModel3

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#3
Welcome to the site!

As @Michael Russo said, I'm not sure you'll see steep decline in used car pricing (at least not the normal decline) for a little bit.

This is a car that will be in high demand.

I get the sense the first few cars resold will be done so at a premium to people that want the car without waiting.

Beyond that once it's been out for a while or getting a new one doesn't come with a 12 month wait then it will probably start the natural depreciation process.

This will probably be a hot car used though and very competitive as supply will be low and demand will be high.

As an aside, buying the car used will not come with a US Federal Tax Credit, but then again waiting a few years and the credit will be gone anyway.
 

Brokedoc

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#5
The normal depreciation of a vehicle doesn't apply to the Model 3 currently. #1 - there is a 1 1/2 year waiting list. #2 - there is a tax incentive that will be expiring before the preorders are all filled which will affect the supply/demand curve. #3 - Past Tesla Model S depreciation curves were skewed because Tesla had a "guaranteed" trade in value until very recently which altered secondary market pricing.

There is no answer to how much a Model 3 will sell for in 2-3 years. It's impossible to know if in 2 years there will still be a 1 year waiting list which will inflate resale values or if there will be some major update (i.e. AP3) that will decrease demand for older models. Also, if Tesla is able to release FSD and the Tesla Rideshare becomes real, all FSD Tesla cars could potentially make money for their owners and nobody will sell and the used market will be nonexistent... Tesla is truly a market disruptive company.
 

teslaliving

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#6
If the Model S is any guide, I wouldn't expect to get too much of a deal.

This chart doesn't match reality. Tesla's last trade in quote for me was $41,100 at 71,728 miles (I now have 85K miles on it). I paid $100K for the car and have taken good care of it. Premium cars depreciate quickly and Tesla is no exception.
 

garsh

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#7
This chart doesn't match reality. Tesla's last trade in quote for me was $41,100 at 71,728 miles (I now have 85K miles on it). I paid $100K for the car and have taken good care of it. Premium cars depreciate quickly and Tesla is no exception.
A single "quote" anecdote is not enough to refute a large collection of actual "sold for" prices.
The new study was released today by Autolist. The buyer intelligence firm looked at over 1.6 million data points from January 1, 2012 to August 31, 2016 and compared the depreciation of vehicles in each segment over the number of miles driven.
But that study probably doesn't take into account that older versions of the S will end up depreciating more now that there are newer versions available with more features.
 
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teslaliving

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#8
A single "quote" anecdote is not enough to refute a large collection of actual "sold for" prices.
But that study probably doesn't take into account that older versions of the S will end up depreciating more now that there are newer versions available with more features.
It is the real world of current Tesla owners who are finding much more depreciation than they thought. Each time Tesla releases AP2, AP2.5 the older cars depreciate faster. That's the way of tech. In this new world of the high tech car I think the cars are going to depreciate faster, not slower. Many people are buying based on the tech, not the basic EV nature and hey want the latest.
 

MelindaV

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#9
also remember, trade-in value is not the same as the car's actual value. You are 'paying' a premium for the convenience of trading in a car instead of selling it privately.
 

teslaliving

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#10
also remember, trade-in value is not the same as the car's actual value. You are 'paying' a premium for the convenience of trading in a car instead of selling it privately.
True but the chart shows about 40% loss and the trade in was 60%. Private party sales can be difficult, especially on special cars, unless you're very experienced in it. In Massachusetts, it's especially messy.