AWD Vin & Delivery updates (Non Performance)

Skione65

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#1
Have any LR AWD (P or Non-P) Configs received an ISA email, VIN assignment or Delivery Date yet? Please post in this thread as they roll in or any progress in that area! I understand that some approximate 2500 AWD VINs have been ‘registered’ so far and we’ve seen the ‘First’ AWD P roll off the line but haven’t seen any action other than RWD VIN assignments and delivery dates.

Thank You!

Ski
 

Corey

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#3
Im going to hop on this thread and watching. Ordered AWD and wondering when we will start to see movement on deliveries
 
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#4
So if the GA4 line is exclusively doing AWD models.... and this was in the press release:

"GA4, our new General Assembly line for Model 3, was responsible for roughly 20% of Model 3s produced last week, with quality from that line being as good as our regular GA3 line."
That could maybe, sorta indicate that 1,006 AWD were made last week?
 

Rick Rollens

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#5
So if the GA4 line is exclusively doing AWD models.... and this was in the press release:

"GA4, our new General Assembly line for Model 3, was responsible for roughly 20% of Model 3s produced last week, with quality from that line being as good as our regular GA3 line."
That could maybe, sorta indicate that 1,006 AWD were made last week?
Don't confuse AWD production with Performance AWD which we know will be produced before straight AWD.
 

Bokonon

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#6
So if the GA4 line is exclusively doing AWD models.... and this was in the press release:

"GA4, our new General Assembly line for Model 3, was responsible for roughly 20% of Model 3s produced last week, with quality from that line being as good as our regular GA3 line."
That could maybe, sorta indicate that 1,006 AWD were made last week?
I noticed that too. If true, that is the sleeper hit of this press release.
 

Tich

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#7
Don't confuse AWD production with Performance AWD which we know will be produced before straight AWD.
True, but don't forget that there are *far* fewer performance models to build. Extrapolating the data from Troy's spreadsheet, they only make up about 13% of all AWD models, and only 1.5% of all orders. I realize those numbers might be slightly higher now that the prices have dropped, but I'd be willing to bet that they mow through those Performance orders relatively quickly.
 

Rick Rollens

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#8
True, but don't forget that there are *far* fewer performance models to build. Extrapolating the data from Troy's spreadsheet, they only make up about 13% of all AWD models, and only 1.5% of all orders. I realize those numbers might be slightly higher now that the prices have dropped, but I'd be willing to bet that they mow through those Performance orders relatively quickly.
Good points. Iam all for a quick delivery of my AWD!
 

calvan

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#9
How accurate do you think extrapolating numbers from that spreadsheet are? I ordered with everyone else last week based on 1) excitement (might not have been thinking clearly) and 2) the 3-5mo timeline (awd). I am concerned that if a high enough percentage of the remaining 420,000 reservations are AWD/P they won’t make that timeline even if they are at 6k/week by the end of August.
 

Corey

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#10
How accurate do you think extrapolating numbers from that spreadsheet are? I ordered with everyone else last week based on 1) excitement (might not have been thinking clearly) and 2) the 3-5mo timeline (awd). I am concerned that if a high enough percentage of the remaining 420,000 reservations are AWD/P they won’t make that timeline even if they are at 6k/week by the end of August.
I'm not sure the awd orders are super high. I think many people are now changing their minds seeing how fast people are getting their RWDs now and decided to switch. At least that's what I'm hoping. I'm in Michigan so AWD is almost a must have. I'm just hoping I get it before the snow falls here
 

Troy

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#11
309 people have reported that they have configured an AWD or P. The sample rate is around 7%. That means 4414 orders. Here Tesla said, "GA4, our new General Assembly line for Model 3, was responsible for roughly 20% of Model 3s produced last week". That means 1000/week or 143/day. 4414 would take 31 days.

Transport and delivery could take up to 30 days. See the chart called "VIN to Delivery in the last 3 weeks" on the Delivery tab here. I think the 30 Sep deadline for $7,500 is more likely than 31 Dec at this point.

Therefore people who are waiting for AWD/P should hope that Tesla starts production by the end of this month and demonstrates 1,000/week production rate. There will be a conference call a month from now. Last year it was on Aug 2, 2017.
 

MelindaV

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#12
309 people have reported that they have configured an AWD or P. The sample rate is around 7%. That means 4414 orders. Here Tesla said, "GA4, our new General Assembly line for Model 3, was responsible for roughly 20% of Model 3s produced last week". That means 1000/week or 143/day. 4414 would take 31 days.

Transport and delivery could take up to 30 days. See the chart called "VIN to Delivery in the last 3 weeks" on the Delivery tab here. I think the 30 Sep deadline for $7,500 is more likely than 31 Dec at this point.

Therefore people who are waiting for AWD/P should hope that Tesla starts production by the end of this month and demonstrates 1,000/week production rate. There will be a conference call a month from now. Last year it was on Aug 2, 2017.
I've seen a this same theory put out there a couple times, but where was it stated that GA4 is solely AWD/P builds? or that either are not on the other lines?
 

Guy Weathersby

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#13
Troy's spreadsheet, they only make up about 13% of all AWD models, and only 1.5% quicker f all orders. I realize those numbers might be slightly higher now that the prices have dropped,
It might also be raised by the quicker availability. It worked for me Hope you are right about getting through the list quickly.
 

calvan

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#14
I’m not trying to stir the pot or questioning anyone’s math, I understand this is all theoretical. However do we really think 4500 people out of 450,000 are interested in AWD? I would think within states with colder climates that number would be much higher. I will agree that being the highest cost model under the Performance has to be a factor in low take rates, gray area between it and an S 75.

Bottom line is I’m trying not to get my hopes up about getting this car any time soon and you’re not helping!
 

Diamond.g

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#15
309 people have reported that they have configured an AWD or P. The sample rate is around 7%. That means 4414 orders. Here Tesla said, "GA4, our new General Assembly line for Model 3, was responsible for roughly 20% of Model 3s produced last week". That means 1000/week or 143/day. 4414 would take 31 days.

Transport and delivery could take up to 30 days. See the chart called "VIN to Delivery in the last 3 weeks" on the Delivery tab here. I think the 30 Sep deadline for $7,500 is more likely than 31 Dec at this point.

Therefore people who are waiting for AWD/P should hope that Tesla starts production by the end of this month and demonstrates 1,000/week production rate. There will be a conference call a month from now. Last year it was on Aug 2, 2017.
That is also ignoring them building AWD P for test drives as well.
 

edittman1

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#17
A user called "hasbro" has an entry in the spreadsheet for LR AWD with a VIN (34567). Don't know if it's an error. Config 6/27/18, last updated 6/30/18.
Probably error. I expect there will be massive press and media coverage for the first delivered P and AWD units.

I’m trying to figure out this federal tax incentive at the moment. I ordered my LR version then they opened up Performance for me. So I changed my order to that, which was a huge bonus given the timeline/priority change and the price reduction. I was day 1, but online and unsure where that puts me. Hopin for only 2 months out... I’m also fremont pickup.
 

Silvermagic3

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#19
I’m not trying to stir the pot or questioning anyone’s math, I understand this is all theoretical. However do we really think 4500 people out of 450,000 are interested in AWD?
Like you said, we're all guessing, but remember that the 450,000 is world wide and we are really only concerned with North America right now. I would guess that there was around 100,000 - 150,000 reservations in North America. Of that they have now delivered 28,386 and built another 11,166, so really ~40,000 have gotten or are going to get their RWD pretty soon. The real trick is knowing what % of the possible of people left in NA are getting RWD, AWD, or waiting for SR.

I do think that the percentage of AWD should be pretty high when you consider all of the advantages for the extra $4000.