Autonomous Driving

If all forms of Autonomous Driving were abolished, would you still keep and/or buy a Tesla

  • Yes

    Votes: 50 89.3%
  • No

    Votes: 6 10.7%

  • Total voters
    56

garsh

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#2
Won't happen in the long run. But if companies like Uber don't implement safer baseline behavior, then it's going to result in some much stronger regulations on testing. Right now, governments are basically trusting companies to do the right thing.
 

John

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#3
I could see the auto industry banding together to lobby for legislation that requires LIDAR. Just to slow Tesla down for a couple of years.
 

John

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#5
Not when the car that killed a person had lidar.
My point—and I do have one—is that self-driving cars and corresponding legislation are inevitable, so other car companies will try to require something in the legislation that singles out Tesla and slows them down specifically. LIDAR is one such thing, maybe someone can think of others.
 

garsh

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#8
My point—and I do have one—is that self-driving cars and corresponding legislation are inevitable, so other car companies will try to require something in the legislation that singles out Tesla and slows them down specifically.
The easiest way to attack Tesla is the way they've been attacking them - via the dealer network (US) and import tariffs (China especially). But I don't believe anybody views Tesla as the front runner.

Waymo is.

So either you'll see legislation that tries to impede Waymo, or you're going to see Waymo get friendly with several automakers (Chrysler and Jaguar so far - we'll see if it turns into anything long-term). I don't see any easy way to attack Waymo, since they're not even releasing a product. So I think you're going to see the latter happen more.
 

Lovesword

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#9
I've used the EAP both days on my way to work since getting 10.5. It's been great. That being said, I find that I don't use it very often just yet, my car is too new still and I just downright enjoy driving it. I've actually taken it out of EAP so that I can drive!! I'm sure I'll use it more as I take trips and the repeated monotony of going to/from work, which is really what I wanted to get it most for (well, and because it's just damn cool!)
I voted YES. It's such a fun car to drive.

@PTFI How did you vote? :)
 

PTFI

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#10
I've used the EAP both days on my way to work since getting 10.5. It's been great. That being said, I find that I don't use it very often just yet, my car is too new still and I just downright enjoy driving it. I've actually taken it out of EAP so that I can drive!! I'm sure I'll use it more as I take trips and the repeated monotony of going to/from work, which is really what I wanted to get it most for (well, and because it's just damn cool!)
I voted YES. It's such a fun car to drive.

@PTFI How did you vote? :)
I voted a Definite YES! We love the design and the Long Range of the Model 3. I mentioned in some other threads that we opted out on EAP and Full Blown Auto Pilot. We love to “Drive“ the car instead of the other way around.

We have all seen the Headlines, so I won’t make any comments concerning that, but we ALL have to be aware that EVERYONE’s safety is at stake. When we get to Level 5 Full Autonomous Driving we may opt in and donate $10k to that upgrade.
 
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BobLoblaw

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#11
Had a conversation regarding this just the other day with a coworker. Background - the conversation happened at 38,000 feet on our way to Cancun in a Boeing 737NG. The autopilot was engaged and we were deep into Tesla talk as I was thinking my invite was coming (it came the next day!).

As someone who lives with automation on a daily basis at work, I have serious hesitations regarding fully autonomous driving and I don't believe it will clear regulatory hurdles anytime soon. I still think automation has it's place in cars, but I see it having a similar place as it does in aircraft. When we have the autopilot engaged, one of us is still actively managing the aircraft - still "in control". This is necessary for lots of reasons, not the least of which is the dynamic environment we operate in (autopilots don't do a perfect job at handling changing atmospheric conditions), the ability to quickly take control in case of a potential conflict with another aircraft (it's a manually flown procedure), or the potential failure of system that would effect the performance of the aircraft (example - a hydraulic or electrical failure could cause the autopilot to disengage). This is just a few simple examples, and in the phase of flight with the lowest workload (cruise). In higher workload phases of flight (example - below 3,000' above ground) we "ghost" the controls at all times, even when doing some of the most automated procedures out there (ie: autoland, where in basically zero visibility the aircraft lands itself). This is done in case we either aren't satisfied with the performance of the automation or a critical system fails and we need to assume control.

So where am I going with this? I think we will see continued improvement in autopilot systems in vehicles in order to manage workload in less complex situations. I think that with these improvements we will see widespread adoption and promotion of the use of autopilot systems in appropriate scenarios. I don't think we will see fully autonomous driving anytime soon, and I fully expect legislation to emerge that ensures that the person behind the wheel is still "in control" and able to respond appropriately. I hope there will be some sort of training on it's proper use, it's limitations, and how to manage it appropriately in less than perfect situations. We've been using autopilots in aviation for decades, why not take some of the lessons learned and put them to use on the road...
 

BobLoblaw

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#13
Hey Garsh,

There's still a guy (actually a team) sitting in a shack monitoring the entire flight. Granted they aren't sitting in the flight deck but as far as I know every drone in the air has someone at the controls. Actually have a friend whose brother is RAF and did a tour in Las Vegas flying drones.
 

garsh

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#14
There's still a guy (actually a team) sitting in a shack monitoring the entire flight.
Still, those larger drones are only piloted when they get close to commercial airspace (or targets). The rest of the time, they are flying themselves.
 

BobLoblaw

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#15
Still, those larger drones are only piloted when they get close to commercial airspace (or targets). The rest of the time, they are flying themselves.
They operate at high altitudes with no traffic...60,000' and nothing to hit. As you stated that's outside of commercial airspace in what I would deem an exceptionally low-workload situation. I'd also bet that there are still people making sure that the $250,000,000 hunk of aluminum and jet fuel is doing what it's told. In controlled airspace they are flown actively like remote-controlled aircraft (probably on autopilot!), I actually have heard the NASA pilots flying their Global Hawk around a few years back on ATC frequencies.

Anyways, apologies for the thread drift! I could have easily just said that we'd still buy a Tesla :)
 

Stacks

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#16
I’m in the belief that computers are superior to humans (by a lot), so while the algorithm for flying a plane autonomously may not be perfect today...one day it will be. I believe that day is fast approaching.
 

PTC Gator

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#17
Not for much longer...

I'm in the same profession as BobLoblaw (as it appears a few others on this board), and I can confirm that the general public has a pretty big misconception about what automation does and can do. Even still, IMO the degree of complexity required for continued ground operation is an order of magnitude greater than what is required for aviation.
I truly think that aviation will follow trains in time to become fully automated, but even now trains only have that level of automation in closed systems (Airport shuttles, theme park trains, etc). We have several steps to get through before we see fully automated vehicles on the road as a common sight. I don't think we will see it in 10 years, much less 5.

I would like to see it happen sooner rather than later, but there is a lot more that needs to be refined than most people recognize.
 

Runt8

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#18
If you really want to know what will be possible in the future for autonomous driving/flying/etc, you need to talk to someone who works in the field of AI and neural networking. Fully autonomous operation is far too complicated and has far too many variables for anything other than an AI capable of making decisions to handle.

My dad is a commercial airline pilot and his views on autonomy are very similar to BobLoblaw - but it's completely based on his experience with the autopilot system in his aircraft. He's very well versed on the limitations of that system and it completely colors his thinking on the subject.

As a computer scientist with some experience with AI, I have a different view of what is possible and I have no doubt that full level 5 autonomy will be coming. Will it be coming in Elon's timeline or with the hardware that is currently being delivered? That's another question completely...
 
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oey192

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#19
I’m also a computer scientist (with very little AI experience) and I fully agree. Level 5 autonomy is coming. My guess is it will arrive faster than most people expect but significantly slower than Elon promises (it’s also not clear to me if Tesla’s FSD system is supposed to be L4 or L5…)

Back to the point of this thread, I would absolutely still buy a Tesla without Autopilot. Tesla has 4 things going for it that few or no other car company has (in order of importance to me):
1. Electric (some other options, but not many)
2. Charging network that enables road trips (no current competitors)
3. OTAs (no current competitors)
4. Autopilot (Cadillac SuperCruise is the only competitor I know of and it’s not offered on any electric cars…)

If you take away all of 2, 3, and 4 then I would consider other electric cars, but as long as they retain a competitive advantage in at least one of those areas I don’t think I will ever buy a non-Tesla
 

PTC Gator

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#20
Quoting from this article, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/05/business/tesla-model-3.html

At this juncture, Autopilot is a misnomer, as many others have observed. “This is not self-driving technology,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist and expert on autonomous vehicle technology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “It’s a collaborative system that leaves responsibility for safety in the drivers’ hands and isn’t intended to let them sit in the back seat or pursue other activities while driving.” Even though some companies have said they plan driverless ride services in as little as two years, Mr. Reimer said full automation was likely to be many years or even decades in the future.

Before you guys (gals) get all wound up, the article is very complimentary of Tesla and the Model 3. I just feel like the expectations for full autonomy are a bit beyond rational at this point. Here is a guy with pretty good credentials saying exactly that.

Yes, I would still take what Tesla offers now.
Yes, It's still better than anything else out on the market.
Yes, if anyone can do it it's Musk and Tesla.