Anyone with a Jan-Mar estimate gotten invite to configure?

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Prodigal Son

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#21
I hope you're right! But I do think it's wishful thinking, especially if you're not in CA. I'll be thrilled to get mine by March but I'm trying to be realistic since deliveries to non-Tesla owners haven't even started yet.
Do you recall what time you reserved?
 

Derik

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#22
I'll be happy when ng0 gets his as well. Means I shouldn't be too far behind and even if he gets one early.. I'm sure I'll get to see it around the building 8 parking lot.
 

ng0

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#23
Do you recall what time you reserved?
I waited in line around 6pm. Not sure exactly when I officially got to reserve. Maybe 6:30? Still kicking myself for not getting in line first thing in the morning before going to work. Never could've imagined 100k+ people putting deposits down on a car they've never seen even in pictures.
 

Prodigal Son

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#24
I waited in line around 6pm. Not sure exactly when I officially got to reserve. Maybe 6:30? Still kicking myself for not getting in line first thing in the morning before going to work. Never could've imagined 100k+ people putting deposits down on a car they've never seen even in pictures.
Ah. You're still 2-3 hours ahead of me then (somewhere between 8pm and 9pm online for me… guessing more towards the latter), and there was a heck of a lot of reservation activity during that period. Unless me being in the bay area gives me a little extra priority, which doesn't seem likely based on what we've seen so far, you're a hell of a lot more likely to get your car in Jan-Mar than I am :grimacing:
 

evelectricity

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#25
I am a Jan-Mar holder and I am hoping I will get mine in June. If I can't get mine by the end of June I am going to assume the worst for Tesla as they can't burn money forever, not delivering cars, without going bankrupt. My leased 5 year old Fit EV expires June 3, and if it looks much longer than that I am looking at plan B for another EV. Just not a whole lot of EV choices right now. I really don't want another economy car packaged as an EV, aka Bolt.
 

ng0

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#27
I'll be happy when ng0 gets his as well. Means I shouldn't be too far behind and even if he gets one early.. I'm sure I'll get to see it around the building 8 parking lot.
LoL. It's funny, I was looking at the charging stations this morning hoping I'd magically see a Model 3 sitting there. :p I get the feeling your more likely to see one at your building parking lot than I am. :)
 

Derik

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#29
LoL. It's funny, I was looking at the charging stations this morning hoping I'd magically see a Model 3 sitting there. :p I get the feeling your more likely to see one at your building parking lot than I am. :)
I've got a a Jan - March date as well, but I did mine online. So I think you'll be before me since you did it in person.
Everyone charging here will be paying double what you are up the hill.

I don't even see a model s in the parking lot down here. Just a couple i3's and bolts / volts now. It isn't very often I even see anyone plugged into the chargers out front.
 

ng0

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#30
Ah. You're still 2-3 hours ahead of me then (somewhere between 8pm and 9pm online for me… guessing more towards the latter), and there was a heck of a lot of reservation activity during that period. Unless me being in the bay area gives me a little extra priority, which doesn't seem likely based on what we've seen so far, you're a hell of a lot more likely to get your car in Jan-Mar than I am :grimacing:
yea, still holding out some hope for March! Would be an amazing birthday present. :) I was shocked to see how many people were still in line on 3/31 as late as I got there. I'm not sure how crazy it was in the middle of the day, but I have a friend that was in line first thing in the morning and he said the line was ridiculous. When I got there, there was still a half hour to an hour wait and it was significant enough where the news was there interviewing people. So far it seems those in the bay area seem to get some priority, followed my CA residents. I don't know if that will continue when they get to the rest of the queue.

I am a Jan-Mar holder and I am hoping I will get mine in June. If I can't get mine by the end of June I am going to assume the worst for Tesla as they can't burn money forever, not delivering cars, without going bankrupt. My leased 5 year old Fit EV expires June 3, and if it looks much longer than that I am looking at plan B for another EV. Just not a whole lot of EV choices right now. I really don't want another economy car packaged as an EV, aka Bolt.
They better deliver Jan-Mar estimates before June! It's very likely that either I'll give up or my old Camry will give up by then. :p I'm still hopefully that it won't drag far beyond April. I think we'll at least get config emails by end of March.

Pretty sure we'll get some notification in a few weeks that says, "production slip 2 months"
Doubt it. Maybe a month. Tesla seems to be making pretty decent progress now with deliveries.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#31
.Doubt it. Maybe a month. Tesla seems to be making pretty decent progress now with deliveries.
There are people on the November - January group that haven’t been invited yet, so I expect an update to ranges to come very soon. Clearly production and deliveries have picked up though, so if there isn’t a lot in the way of reaching that goal of 5k / week and that was reforecast for 3/31/2018 then maybe the slippage won’t be that bad if at all.
 

ng0

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#32
I've got a a Jan - March date as well, but I did mine online. So I think you'll be before me since you did it in person.
Everyone charging here will be paying double what you are up the hill.

I don't even see a model s in the parking lot down here. Just a couple i3's and bolts / volts now. It isn't very often I even see anyone plugged into the chargers out front.
Yea, you would think there would be more in your building. All the executives are over there, so I'd expect at least a few Teslas. Guess not. :( Usually here there's always at least 2-3 cars, but they're volts or some other plugin hybrid. I've seen one i3.

There are people on the November - January group that haven’t been invited yet, so I expect an update to ranges to come very soon. Clearly production and deliveries have picked up though, so if there isn’t a lot in the way of reaching that goal of 5k / week and that was reforecast for 3/31/2018 then maybe the slippage won’t be that bad if at all.
My money's on Tesla shooting out a crap ton more config emails before the end of January for the Nov-Jan estimates. They may not actually get those all shipped out by 1/31 but if someone gets to configure, they're probably gonna overlook the 2 week delay. :)
 

TinkerAB

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#34
My original estimate was Nov-Jan, As of right now it says Dec-Feb, Expecting it to change to Jan-Mar any day now. Non-Owner Line waiter in Washington state. My wifes car is on its last leg so really needing Tesla to come through for me asap.
 

evelectricity

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#35
Realistically, they have probably delivered a few thousand cars by the end of December. With that in mind they are probably now where they should have been at in early October. That puts them at about 2-3 months behind the original schedule. The next hurdle will be if they can sustain the "ramp" goal Elon shared back at the reveal. We should be seeing weekly invites of 1000+ going out now if the car is on the updated schedule from November.
 

rsbell

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#38
Not to sound rude, but no one at Tesla knows what the delivery timelines look like. Especially someone at a store.
You’re absolutely right, except I didn’t say anything about a store. This was through corporate, not a store. Granted, that may or may not carry any more weight.
 
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Twiglett

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#39
I seem to remember an Elon tweet about expecting the worst.
I'm in the Dec-Feb crowd so am assuming that means Feb at the earliest.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#40
I seem to remember an Elon tweet about expecting the worst.
I'm in the Dec-Feb crowd so am assuming that means Feb at the earliest.
Heres my thought...

Dec-Feb has all of the non-owner line standers. Say there are 40,000 of us and 40% in the US. That means 16,000 people have Dec-Feb. Disclaimer these numbers are flat out guesses.

None have been invited to configure yet.

Right now they’re just finishing up invites for the Nov-Jan group and that may run for another week let’s say.

So there are 3 weeks of January invites for people in the December-February range. Cars take 4 weeks to arrive, so no invite by 1/31 no car in February. For those 3 weeks of invites they make 3,000 cars (maybe a pinch more).

Of the invites if 50% go first production then they’d need 8,000 cars to make it. They fall short by 5 weeks.

I’m guessing as this goes further and faster Tesla gets a better sense each round as far as how many invites leads to how many first production orders vs. hold my place.

My best guess depending on luck, timing, and positioning that they’re probably up to 1.5 months behind schedule on the back end of the estimate. Now going further if they don’t ramp to 2,500/cars per weeks by end of Q1 the estimates for January-March may miss March by more than 1.5 months....

I believe the further out you go the less certainty there is which clearly makes sense.