Anyone have a rough estimate of when non owners will get invites?

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theloneranger08

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#1
I reserved a Model 3 on day one in line (like most of you). I am a non owner so I know I'll have to wait but does anyone have any idea of when non owners will start getting invites?

I have a delivery estimate of December to February. I didn't expect December or January to happen. Even February may be a stretch but I'm hoping based on the frequency that invites are starting to go out that non owners could get that long awaited email soon.

Thoughts everyone?

Also carless so I'd love to get my Model 3. I travel for work so it's not the end of the world but Atlanta is spread out and it's nice to have the flexibility to drive.
 

Troy

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#2
Hi. The current VIN based calculations show the following:

Tesla needs to send out invites to non-owners by,
2 Feb 2018 if they add white and cream interior by then or by
14 Feb 2018 if they add white and cream interior and either non-PUP or SR to the configurator by then or by
26 Feb 2018 if they add white and cream interior and non-PUP and SR to the configurator by then or by
16 Mar 2018 if they add white and cream interior and non-PUP and SR and AWD to the configurator by then.
(SR: Standard range, LR: Long range, PUP: Premium Upgrades Package)

More details here in column EJ.
 

SoFlaModel3

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#3
I reserved a Model 3 on day one in line (like most of you). I am a non owner so I know I'll have to wait but does anyone have any idea of when non owners will start getting invites?

I have a delivery estimate of December to February. I didn't expect December or January to happen. Even February may be a stretch but I'm hoping based on the frequency that invites are starting to go out that non owners could get that long awaited email soon.

Thoughts everyone?

Also carless so I'd love to get my Model 3. I travel for work so it's not the end of the world but Atlanta is spread out and it's nice to have the flexibility to drive.
My gut says invites to “owners” wrap up by end of this month or early next month. Basically confirming non-owner line waiters start getting invites in February for March delivery. However given the ramp is going slower than planned and the number of non-owner line waiters is high this is the delivery range where we may begin to see slippage on the estimate. It all depends on your order time within your geographical bucket and how many people go for first production. A lot of unknowns. I say expect the car March - May and be happy if you’re on the earlier end of the range!
 

nameless

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#5
Keep in mind that he's talking about the first non-owner invite. The pool of non-owner likely buyers currently at Dec-Feb is measured in tens of thousands (at least 10k and possibly as high as 40k).

As far as the first invite, I personally think that even 2 Feb is too conservative (I would not be surprised to hear about some non-owner invites this week) and I expect some deliveries before the end of February. But, unless either Tesla exceeds its current production ramp-up projections or the take-up rate for the $49k RWD/LR/PUP version among day 1 line waiters is significantly less than even 50%, it will still be delivering cars to the Dec-Feb group all April and well into May. You can fall anywhere between these two extremes.
And, if they open up $35k RWD/SR deliveries before inviting everyone in Dec-Feb to configure for $49k, you can be even further down the list, possibly as far as #60k or #70k. How long it takes Tesla to make 60,000 Model 3's, it's anyone's guess at this time. The highest reported VIN so far is in the 4000s and they are promising to ramp up to 20,000/month by the end of Q2 (June).
 
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Michael Russo

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#8
Thanks to @Kennethbokor ’s tweet, some of us outside the US can now look to the delivery estimator soon to say something else (earlier! :)) than ‘Late 2018’!!

 

RichEV

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#13
Hi. The current VIN based calculations show the following:

Tesla needs to send out invites to non-owners by,
2 Feb 2018 if they add white and cream interior by then or by
14 Feb 2018 if they add white and cream interior and either non-PUP or SR to the configurator by then or by
26 Feb 2018 if they add white and cream interior and non-PUP and SR to the configurator by then or by
16 Mar 2018 if they add white and cream interior and non-PUP and SR and AWD to the configurator by then.
(SR: Standard range, LR: Long range, PUP: Premium Upgrades Package)

More details here in column EJ.
Aren't you missing a line that says:
29 Jan 2018 if they continue delivering only first production models
 

barjohn

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#15
There is only one reason that I can see SR model becoming available anytime soon and that is that they should be able to produce more smaller batteries (assuming the battery is actually smaller and not software limited) than the larger batteries in the LR version. Thus, they could increase production rate if batteries are the bottleneck in production.
 

Runt8

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#16
If it helps to put a somewhat upper bound on things - I reserved 5/2017 and the Tesla estimator is still showing 4/2018 - 6/2018 for the first production. I had the same 1 month delay as most others when the ramp-up was initially pushed back and no changes to it since then. I'm a non-owner and live in Colorado.

Lets say I'm hopeful yet skeptical that I will see it between those dates. But I'm about as far back as you can get in the queue (for US deliveries) unless you reserved during the big uptick after the first summer deliveries.
 

Michael Russo

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#17
(...) Lets say I'm hopeful yet skeptical that I will see it between those dates. But I'm about as far back as you can get in the queue (for US deliveries) unless you reserved during the big uptick after the first summer deliveries.
Am skeptical too. If you indeed reserved in May of last year (you did not mean 5/16, right?) I don't understand such early delivery windows. o_O
 

Runt8

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#18
Am skeptical too. If you indeed reserved in May of last year (you did not mean 5/16, right?) I don't understand such early delivery windows. o_O
Definitely mean 5/2017. When I placed my reservation Tesla was still estimating "Early 2018." A couple weeks later they updated the wording to indicate deliveries later in 2018. My only guess is that I barely squeaked in the bucket for an earlier delivery and when there was a large uptick in reservations related to the first deliveries last summer those people started getting later estimates.

...Or the Tesla estimator is just way off and I still have a huge wait ahead of me...
 

Michael Russo

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#19
Definitely mean 5/2017. When I placed my reservation Tesla was still estimating "Early 2018." A couple weeks later they updated the wording to indicate deliveries later in 2018. My only guess is that I barely squeaked in the bucket for an earlier delivery and when there was a large uptick in reservations related to the first deliveries last summer those people started getting later estimates.

...Or the Tesla estimator is just way off and I still have a huge wait ahead of me...
Thanks for response. IMHO, it's b. You had normally >500k reservations ahead of you. Just like with owners priority, I don't see US reservation priority for non-owners to extend that far in time (more than a year after the reveal). Yet who am I? ;)
 

Runt8

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#20
Thanks for response. IMHO, it's b. You had normally >500k reservations ahead of you. Just like with owners priority, I don't see US reservation priority for non-owners to extend that far in time (more than a year after the reveal). Yet who am I? ;)
I'm guessing more in the mid 400k (taking into account the 60k cancellations). If 50% are outside the US, and >50% of the ones in the US are waiting for non-first production (or not ordering at all), then it starts to be slightly more in the realm of possibility. We don't have any idea what the conversion rate is, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was well under 50%.

But I'm planning on waiting as long as it takes. If the Tesla estimate is accurate then I'll be pleasantly surprised. If not, then I know at some point I'll end up with a great car.
 
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