2018 Q2 Delivery Estimation Game

chojn1

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#1
Well it's that time of the quarter again. We should see Tesla production and delivery report some time next week.

How about another game on who can come up with the closest estimate to Tesla global quarterly delivery number for the model 3? Same rule as last quarter.

Closest by percentage to Tesla reports wins (the @SoFlaModel3 rule).
Revisions of your estimate is allowed up until deadline (Monday morning).
Prize: Coby's sunglass tray

I'll start: 28957


CJ
 

SoFlaModel3

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#4
Well it's that time of the quarter again. We should see Tesla production and delivery report some time next week.

How about another game on who can come up with the closest estimate to Tesla global quarterly delivery number for the model 3? Same rule as last quarter.

Closest by percentage to Tesla reports wins (the @SoFlaModel3 rule).
Revisions of your estimate is allowed up until deadline (Monday morning).
Prize: Coby's sunglass tray

I'll start: 28957


CJ
So wait you don’t want me to go with 28,958? ;)

I’ll go with an even 30,000!
 

Bokonon

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#5
13,750 US + 4500 Canada = 18,250 global Model 3s deliveries in Q2

BONUS PREDICTION 1: A whopping 10,350 Model 3s are classified as "in transit"

BONUS PREDICTION 2: Cumulative U.S. deliveries subject to the Section 30D tax credit announced at 199,950; Elon prefaces announcement by tweeting, "About time to unveil the 30D..."

BONUS PREDICTION 2.5: A Seeking Alpha contributor cites the aforementioned tweet in an article entitled, "Look Out Below! Elon Musk Confirms Dual-Motor Model 3 Has a 0-kWh Battery"

BONUS PREDICTION 3: My coffee intake tomorrow will surpass the previous record, whatever that was... :sleeping:
 

mkg3

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#11
I'll go with 30,400 TM3 units delivered.

4x2500/wk + 4x3000/wk + 4x3500/wk = 36000 Produced (there is actually 13 weeks in this quarter but there were two shutdowns for about a week total). In transit carry over from Q1 (~1100) brings the total to 37100 available for delivery. Current in-transit 6700.

 

Long Ranger

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#17
Interesting that so far there are only two entries within +/- 3000 vehicles of the mean or median. There definitely seems to be a low group and a high group.
 

Brokedoc

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#18
I vote 28507.

FWIW - Reuters has quoted employee saying the paint shop is the bottleneck and Tesla can't hit 5k Model 3s / wk because paint shop is shared with S/X.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-model-3-production-workers-say-idUSKBN1JO2XI

I'm sure for one shift, Elon can stop all S/X painting and paint a bunch of the fastest color (not white or red since they're multicoat) to get an extrapolated burst rate of 5k+/wk.