$100 per kWh battery pack cost (?))

Mike

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#1
I just watched Trevor's latest video and I agree with one of his observation/assumptions, namely that Tesla is at the much anticipated $100 per kWh cost of their battery packs.

I also came to this conclusion when the proposed price for the Semi was announced.

Thoughts?
 

SoFlaModel3

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#3
I just watched Trevor's latest video and I agree with one of his observation/assumptions, namely that Tesla is at the much anticipated $100 per kWh cost of their battery packs.

I also came to this conclusion when the proposed price for the Semi was announced.

Thoughts?
I would tend to agree!

We are really overpaying for that SR to LR upgrade, but I'll be doing it happily. :)
Don't forget you're not just paying for the size of the battery -- you're getting better performance and a longer warranty so there is more to it then just the extra kWh.
 

Red Sage

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#5
I believe it was either mid-2015 or mid-2016 when it was said Tesla was below $190 per kWh at the pack level. It was earlier this year that it was said the Gigafactory allowed for a 35% savings on battery packs already. So...

$190 × 0.65 = $123.50

Tesla has definitely reached the less than $124 per kWh level for internal pricing for battery packs. Getting down to $100 from there would require a further ~19% improvement. Assuming a cumulative improvement of around 7% per year, then that would be enough for Tesla to get down to ~$99 per kWh by early 2020.
 

Bobby Garrity

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#6
Some Semi numbers, all at max load:

Consumption: "Less than 2 kWh per mile" I'll use 2 in my calculations.
Cost of 300 mile range truck: $150,000
Cost of 500 mile range truck: $180,000
From the consumption figure, the two versions will have 600kWh and 1000kWh batteries, respectively.
So for $30,000, you get an additional 400kWh. Which means, that option costs you....

$75/kWh!!!

Now because the consumption is not 2kWh/mi, but less, the actual price is higher than $75. Based solely on the "less than 2" wording, I don't think it's much less.

Nonetheless, I think this shows that by 2019, they will hit the $100 mark, and be well below it by 2020. Don't forget that even though the Semi is coming out in 2019, Tesla will be the first customer, so it is entirely possible that no Semis are sold to other companies until 2020, therefore giving them even more time to lower costs.

So my answer is yes.