# TSLA Stock Price Discussion - 2019 Q2



## slasher016 (Sep 12, 2017)

Well it's a good day to buy...


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

I’m really liking the TSLA bounce from premarket lows. Heh, don’t jinx it, right!


----------



## iChris93 (Feb 3, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> I'm really liking the TSLA bounce from premarket lows. Heh, don't jinx it, right!


What were the premarket lows?


----------



## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

iChris93 said:


> What were the premarket lows?


I'm certain I saw 262 or 263 (I'm forgetting exacts and was only checking periodically)
I googled TSLA and it opened at 261.89 with a low of 260.59. So at 267.86, that's definitely better than 260! lol.


----------



## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

with the SEC hearing today, came upon this comment submitted to the SEC and recorded from a normal walking around concerned citizen, a self proclaimed genius. 
https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-26-18/s72618-5240975-183709.pdf


----------



## iChris93 (Feb 3, 2017)

MelindaV said:


> with the SEC hearing today, came upon this comment submitted to the SEC and recorded from a normal walking around concerned citizen, a self proclaimed genius.
> https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-26-18/s72618-5240975-183709.pdf


What did I just read?


----------



## Eric714 (Feb 16, 2019)

iChris93 said:


> What were the premarket lows?











$260.10


----------



## JWardell (May 9, 2016)

Tesla has been in the bargain basement lately. The autonomous driving demo was intended to impress investors but the presentation was WAY over their heads, no surprise the stock went nowhere. Very curious if there is a response to last night's S/X updates or if they continue to hold their breaths. Seems like a good time to capitalize


----------



## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

JWardell said:


> Tesla has been in the bargain basement lately. The autonomous driving demo was intended to impress investors but the presentation was WAY over their heads, no surprise the stock went nowhere. Very curious if there is a response to last night's S/X updates or if they continue to hold their breaths. Seems like a good time to capitalize


my boss and I were talking about their price last night, and in the same breath he mentions he expects them to double in value, he goes on to talk about "self driving cars killing people". He doesn't understand the tech, doesn't trust the tech and is imagining sci-fi movie AI robot cars taking over the streets with the intent of running down people. He doesn't see any safety advantage to any of the AP features. and he has zero interest in listening to any conversation describing the safeguards, stats, etc - he just sees FSD intentionally causing mass carnage. (I think this is only because his argument of "what happens when you are in the middle of the desert and there isn't a charger?" has died down - particularly as I've had 4 or 5 300-400 mile work day trips since getting my car and have yet to get stranded, let alone in the middle of a desert.
BUT still bought a fair amount of $TSLA stock and expects to make money on it.

point being, even those that are not sold on the tech (yet!) can see it is under valued


----------



## StromTrooperM3 (Mar 27, 2019)

MelindaV said:


> "what happens when you are in the middle of the desert and there isn't a charger?"


Maybe he's just talking about the Valley in Cali in the middle of summer. That's pretty much the same thing 🤣


----------



## StromTrooperM3 (Mar 27, 2019)

JWardell said:


> The autonomous driving demo was intended to impress investors but the presentation was WAY over their heads


Couldn't agree more. As a tech person I was just sitting there going, "no one understands this" I even expected it to drop after the presentation. I think his numbers are grandiose and far far from reach. It seems the market is hip to his claims and the times of big swings is really over.

Once the earnings reports release I'm suspecting it will drop even more. I hope I'm wrong but I'm not seeing any major movement until the Y or Roadster hits the streets. Or they deliver on the FSD features. I'm not seeing enhanced summon been enough to move the needle

Elon was absolutely right. Regulators want data, and Tesla can deliver that by the boatloads. But history has a habit of repeating itself. It took them 10 years to mandate seatbelts even though the data showed them to be beneficial... We are just sloowwww moving to change the lawbooks


----------



## iChris93 (Feb 3, 2017)

StromTrooperM3 said:


> I think his numbers are grandiose and far far from reach.


Which numbers?


----------



## JWardell (May 9, 2016)

StromTrooperM3 said:


> It took them 10 years to mandate seatbelts even though the data showed them to be beneficial... We are just sloowwww moving to change the lawbooks


The auto industry is extremely slow, this is why Tesla is the big curve pall that is pushing and pulling the industry along to change faster than ever. There is plenty of kicking and screaming, but so far they have been successful. Those that know there is value in change can see the obvious success. Compare Tesla's metrics to any other car company's 3, 5, or 10 years ago and imagine where they can be in another few years


----------



## StromTrooperM3 (Mar 27, 2019)

iChris93 said:


> Which numbers?


All of them. Robo taxis for one

He misquoted the Nvidia chip power

Now Tesla is starting their own insurance company?

It's like a drunken party 😁


----------



## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

Today I bought TSLA for the first time. Under $250 seems reasonable, though I am completely at a loss to value the enterprise, and I consider this a purely speculative purchase. From the Autonomy Day presentation, I get the impression Tesla is on the cusp of great things. We'll see.


----------



## Guest (Apr 26, 2019)

Depending on how the cards come off the deck, I would consider buying below a $150 sp.


----------



## NJturtlePower (Dec 19, 2017)

Dr. J said:


> Today I bought TSLA for the first time. Under $250 seems reasonable, though I am completely at a loss to value the enterprise, and I consider this a purely speculative purchase. From the Autonomy Day presentation, I get the impression Tesla is on the cusp of great things. We'll see.












$235 today and still dropping.....


----------



## Guest (Apr 26, 2019)

Are we now officially in “Share price hell”?


----------



## Fishn4life (Jul 5, 2018)

Just bought at $238... Thought it a bargain but now questioning


----------



## NJturtlePower (Dec 19, 2017)

Fishn4life said:


> Just bought at $238... Thought it a bargain but now questioning


Saw $231 a few minutes ago... now listed as the 52-week low.


----------



## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

Fishn4life said:


> Just bought at $238... Thought it a bargain but now questioning


Can't really judge the wisdom of that in the first few hours.... or days or weeks or months, even.


----------



## Guy Weathersby (Jun 22, 2016)

Dr. J said:


> I get the impression Tesla is on the cusp of great things.


Even greater things.


----------



## Guy Weathersby (Jun 22, 2016)

Fishn4life said:


> Just bought at $238... Thought it a bargain but now questioning


In all probability in a few years it will either be in the thousands or worthless. Either way whether you paid 238 or 231 or whatever won't matter much.


----------



## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

Guy Weathersby said:


> In all probability in a few years it will either be in the thousands or worthless. Either way whether you paid 238 or 231 or whatever won't matter much.


Or $248 (he said, trying to feel better about that decision).


----------



## Guy Weathersby (Jun 22, 2016)

We could probably use a support group for people obsessed with watching the stock price. It can be painful and confusing.


----------



## kennitala (Apr 9, 2019)

This reminds of Apple in the early 90s, everyone said that they were going under. But I kept my shares and glad I did. I see the same scenario with Tesla.


----------



## E.V.Texan (Aug 29, 2018)

I just bought some more shares today, I could be catching a falling knife.


----------



## fritter63 (Nov 9, 2018)

E.V.Texan said:


> I just bought some more shares today, I could be catching a falling knife.


I'm so far underwater at this point.... just hand me another scuba tank when you get here.

Maybe I should do a DCA purchase.


----------



## Wooloomooloo (Oct 29, 2017)

E.V.Texan said:


> I just bought some more shares today, I could be catching a falling knife.


Possibly, although not probably. It depends how long you need to hold the proverbial knife for.

The stock is a short term stinker frankly (down 30% this year compared to a nearly 20% rally for the S&P) and some of the rationale posted about now being a great time to buy is shockingly naive. I have seen multiple arguments from people saying they would be happy to buy at $310 or even $350 because the long term prospects are "infinite" (or some equally worthless hyperbolic term) therefore you should jump in now because it's so low. That is not good advice, because if you believe that then it doesn't matter whether you jump in at $240 or $340 because you think it will be worth $3,400 ten years from now... The reality is, Tesla is still a young company in an insanely competitive market. For me personally, I think their secret sauce is the battery technology, and not for cars but for space travel. In a few decades when we're on Mars and the Moon, energy storage and creation will be the number one priority - Tesla will very likely be the world leader in energy storage.

Regardless, TSLA isn't going to suddenly explode unexpectedly, and as Eric above said, maybe unwittingly, the volatility of this stock is meaningless for long term investors in the company (unless you're an institutional investor with a value cap, then you're forced to trade on the volatility, like ARK).

I work for a large Wall St bank, in risk specifically, and I would not make any recommendations about this stock personally to anyone and don't like to stoop to artificial gravitas to convince people my opinion means more than the next person. But here are some things to strongly consider before investing your grandma's hip-replacement money in TSLA...

- Tesla lost WAY more than even the bear-est bears expected in Q1. The stock seemed to have found a new floor but has dropped yet again

- A new equity raise is inevitable, that will further dilute shares. Tesla ended 2018 with $3.7bn in cash. But they paid $920m in debt obligations, just lost over $700m in Q1 and have 566m Nov 2019 SolarCity converts... doing the math? So two more quarters of half a billion in losses and they're almost out of cash. The global economy is due a downturn and the regulatory environment isn't favorable to them right now. I don't see a FY profit on the horizon for Tesla anytime soon

- A few years ago, the big bull theory was 30% margins on cars. No volume producer makes 30% margins, and Tesla won't either. Therefore they need to dramatically grow volumes and lower costs. VW and others will have $20k EV's in the next few years, Tesla isn't Apple and can't ignore the lower end of the market

Our price target for TSLA is $240 (almost exactly where it is now). If you're a small investor, you could have grown your capital by 15 - 20% this year just investing in indexes. TSLA might be a good bet in the 10 year timeframe (like their FSD...) but don't expect a major return in less than 5 years that is better than a decent growth index.


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

Wooloomooloo said:


> I work for a large Wall St bank,


Thank you for that disclosure. Now I can discount everything that follows appropriately. 



> - Tesla lost WAY more than even the bear-est bears expected in Q1.


You haven't been paying attention. Many of the bears expect TSLA to go bankrupt any day (for the previous few years).



> Our price target for TSLA is $240 (almost exactly where it is now). If you're a small investor, you could have grown your capital by 15 - 20% this year just investing in indexes. TSLA might be a good bet in the 10-year timeframe (like their FSD...) but don't expect a major return in less than 5 years that is better than a decent growth index.


As an individual investor most of my adult life, I don't ever expect a major return on any investment, it's a matter of odds and risk/reward probabilities. I think you need to stop acting like a typical Wall Street analyst and realize that traditional financial valuation models don't work with companies like AMZN and TSLA. Human speculation determines the value, not next years earnings. In that light, at $238, I like the chances for TSLA to beat the averages in both 1-year and 5-year horizons. From a technical perspective, I'm guessing there is one more small downward leg of perhaps $10-$20/share left. It might even hang out in the low $200's for three months or so. But, at some point, perhaps sooner than later, the story is going to get brighter and people will like the vision and start to climb back on. If you use profitability as your metric, or even imminent profitability, you will miss most of the gains.

My brokerage account is 28.3% larger today than it was on December 31, 2018 and it would be closer to 29% if not for a rather large cash withdrawal. That's amazing considering it's been at least 40% in stable dividend-bearing stocks and cash the entire year. The SP500 has only returned 18%. Of course I've never had TSLA as more than a token position this year. I sold it at $340-something last year and nibbled a little back at $263 and $249. If it goes down another $10-$20, I'll probably establish a major position. At some point, the likelihood of good news outweighs the likelihood of bad and I tend to think we are very close to that point. Of course, to me "very close" could be a number of months out and $20 lower. Or it could be tomorrow. I don't fret over little drops of $30 or $40.

If it seems like I have a dim view of the "experts" on Wall Street there's a good reason for that. I made very middling returns following their advice until I moved my money into a self-managed online brokerage account. Since then, I've outperformed the SP500 by a healthy margin. I retired from my stock market gains shortly after the tech bubble of 2000 and have remained happily retired ever since (while continuing to invest my retirement savings). This was possible by mostly doing the opposite of what most analysts suggested. I bought MSFT when they said it was "overpriced". I bought QCOM when they said it was a "bit player" in wireless and Nokia was "where it was at", and, more recently, when they said QCOM was "mired in legal trouble" and held too much risk to be a serious investment. I like risk, as long as it's "good risk" (as defined by my arbitrary risk/reward sniffer). My results are largely due to my very strong contrarian nature. Yes, I do have a very dim view of people who claim to be "professional" money managers and who claim to manage risk. It's not rocket science although it's presented that way to justify their high fees.

My main point is that TSLA is not (and should not) be valued on near-term earnings potential. That's only important if you are the type of person who is still wondering if electric cars and solar power will ever be financially viable.


----------



## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

Wooloomooloo said:


> Our price target for TSLA is $240 (almost exactly where it is now). If you're a small investor, you could have grown your capital by 15 - 20% this year just investing in indexes. TSLA might be a good bet in the 10 year timeframe (like their FSD...) but don't expect a major return in less than 5 years that is better than a decent growth index.





PNWmisty said:


> My main point is that TSLA is not (and should not) be valued on near-term earnings potential. That's only important if you are the type of person who is still wondering if electric cars and solar power will ever be financially viable.


As an individual investor that also often finds the 'Wall St' types to either not be super informed, or to be intentionally talking out of both sides of their mouth to further their own cause, I'm inclined to feel that both of you are basically 'correct'. TSLA absolutely could be a massive growth investment in the long-term, but the risk with long-term is that the entire playing field could change in ways that we can't even anticipate right now. Any investor long on TSLA should understand that, and I think that many do. Ideally, the various issues that have plagued TSLA over the last ~ 2 years are growing pains and won't prove fatal.

On the same token, while an investment at $240/sh in TSLA today could grow to $1000/sh in 2, 5, 10, 20yrs, for a lot of folks, they could be better served being in 'safer' index funds, that pay a dividend etc and may only provide ~8% returns over the same period, with some blowout years and some leaner ones, depending on how the overall economy is doing.

I also agree that ultimately, TSLA's value isn't in the cars, per se. Its the battery technology, the integration, all of the various 'secret sauces'. Quite frankly, I don't think that what the public perceives of TSLA's goals and ambitions actually match up with what they are actually cooking up behind the curtain. The folks that are way behind the curve trying to compare TSLA to Ford or VW or whatever don't get it. Its akin to comparing Amazon to Barnes & Noble 10-15 years ago.


----------



## Wooloomooloo (Oct 29, 2017)

slacker775 said:


> As an individual investor that also often finds the 'Wall St' types to either not be super informed, or to be intentionally talking out of both sides of their mouth to further their own cause, I'm inclined to feel that both of you are basically 'correct'.


I really hope that's not a personal insult. For what it's worth, I'm not a banker or a FA... as an aside, a post in the Q1 thread was by someone who said they teach people how to make money on the stock market, and a paragraph later said they thought $420 was a decent valuation... for contrast! I work in risk management, actually a little more on the technology side, NLP and other AI/ML tasks... my opinion is worth no more than yours, but no less either. Given analyst price targets range currently from $160 to $500, it's fair to say someone is definitely very wrong. I hope we can respect each other's opinions without pushing each other into boxes.



> TSLA absolutely could be a massive growth investment in the long-term, but the risk with long-term is that the entire playing field could change in ways that we can't even anticipate right now. Any investor long on TSLA should understand that, and I think that many do. Ideally, the various issues that have plagued TSLA over the last ~ 2 years are growing pains and won't prove fatal.


I 100% agree with you - I have made this point a number of times over at the "other" forum, and it just upset people. But here's the real rub with what you said... the more you bet on the long term, the less important fundamentals are and the more important values you may share with the company, and then, frankly, emotions play into your bet. So arguing the short thesis for the long term gets you accusations of FUD and is dismissed as "not getting it". With TSLA, discussing the long term, for too many people is binary between cynicism and blind faith, rather than a healthy middle ground of informed skepticism.



> On the same token, while an investment at $240/sh in TSLA today could grow to $1000/sh in 2, 5, 10, 20yrs, for a lot of folks, they could be better served being in 'safer' index funds, that pay a dividend etc and may only provide ~8% returns over the same period, with some blowout years and some leaner ones, depending on how the overall economy is doing.


Also, if you do some really simple math, if you took $1000 and invested in the "safe" funds for 2 years, getting a compounded 8% and then bought a riskier stock at $300 and sell at $420 12 months later, buying in at $240 gives you a very narrow advantage for a lot more risk.

Some really simple math...

$1,000 @ 8% 24 months then buy TSLA @ $300 sell @ 420 after 12 months. $1,633 or 63% return

$1,000 invest in TSLA @240, hold for 3 years, sell at $420, $1,667.

TSLA has been practically flat for 5 years, so if you invested in 2014 at today's price, you've left 5 years of compound growth on the table. Carry that another 3 years, and TSLA needs to pop 70% to catch up. There were people in 2014 saying TSLA would be at $2000 by now...

So my issue is really with people suggesting that not buying today at $240 is insanity,.,, when the same people were saying that at the same price in 2014. The fast that Tesla as a company has grown 10x since then but the stock hasn't, just goes to show a) how speculative it was back then and b) how far Tesla STILL has to grow to meet the hype.



> I also agree that ultimately, TSLA's value isn't in the cars, per se. Its the battery technology, the integration, all of the various 'secret sauces'. Quite frankly, I don't think that what the public perceives of TSLA's goals and ambitions actually match up with what they are actually cooking up behind the curtain. The folks that are way behind the curve trying to compare TSLA to Ford or VW or whatever don't get it. Its akin to comparing Amazon to Barnes & Noble 10-15 years ago.


Nicely put, and agreed. One would be naive to think they're the only company doing that though...[/quote][/quote]


----------



## fritter63 (Nov 9, 2018)

Wooloomooloo said:


> I really hope that's not a personal insult.


No, he slammed your entire industry. Don't take it personally!


----------



## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

fritter63 said:


> No, he slammed your entire industry. Don't take it personally!


Ha! My comment was definitely not directed at anyone directly. As I've gotten older - and likely more pessimistic - I've tended to learn that folks that we would blindly assume must be super-smart don't always live up to that billing. Like any characterization or stereotype or whatnot, its definitely not a one size fits all.

I enjoy reading more the more detailed discussions on places like this around Tesla's operations, stock performance, etc that don't descend into the "Tesla is going bankrupt!' or 'Don't say anything bad about my BFF Elon!' I like seeing opinions that challenge my own beliefs because sometimes the reasoning is well thought out and alters my view which ultimately makes me more informed. I definitely don't want to be stuck in an echo chamber to give me an overly rosy view and ignore all of the realities, just like any leader that can't accept contrarian views or negative feedback can not effectively lead.


----------



## John (Apr 16, 2016)

StromTrooperM3 said:


> All of them. Robo taxis for one
> 
> He misquoted the Nvidia chip power
> 
> ...


Nah, Tesla had the performance numbers correct. Tesla actually ran the production net on the boards listed, and they measured the load and frame rates that resulted.

NVidia's rebuttal was about raw board specs, the ideal kind they tend to advertise. But in reality, you don't get that corresponding performance running Tesla's actual NN.

NVidia's chips and boards are like a giant industrial kitchen, where you have to run back and forth the length of the kitchen to get ingredients stored in scattered locations, then do lots of opening and measuring and putting back. The kitchen owner may tell you, "You can make ANYTHING in this kitchen, we have it all."

Tesla's solution is like having the exact 10 ingredients stored side by side on the counter, already in measured containers. Dump, dump, dump, mix, done.

That's the beauty of what Jim did for Tesla; Tesla knows the exact operations they need to crank out. They made their dream chip to do that.

NVidia makes general purpose chips and boards, and power consumption is not their top priority (ask any gamer why they spend so much money on liquid cooling their gaming rigs).


----------



## StromTrooperM3 (Mar 27, 2019)

John said:


> ask any gamer why they spend so much money on liquid cooling their gaming rigs


Because it looks cool on Instagram. I'd rather you just give me a car that's painted properly. Let's master the basics before we go crazy elsewhere


----------



## Eric714 (Feb 16, 2019)

Chamath Palihapitiya on CNBC today. Worth watching. Love the slam on short-seller James Chanos.


----------



## Guest (May 1, 2019)

Chamath is one smart dude. His stock/fund (I do like the perspective) performance is marginal at best since its inception. I am surprised he would slam Jim when it is is obvious to anyone watching here lately over the last few years that Jim and David are actually body slamming Elon. When a CEO misses nearly every production prediction by years, FSD prediction by years, and nearly every financial prediction, small investors and Wall St. tend to take notice as TRP has done with unloading millions of their shares. The shares held by ARK are child’s play compared to the big boys such as FMR and BG. If big holders follow TRP, things could get very ugly. It’s unfortunate that a seriously flawed M3 ramp strategy (aka cleverly coined as production hell) cost the company billions in 2017, thus putting them in this seemingly perpetual financial difficult situation as they come up on just few weeks shy of 9 years from their IPO. We have liquidated our nearly 7K share position a while ago and would love to get back in, but the unpredictable tweet risk, one man show risk, most uncertain financials, weekly changing back-and-forth impulse announcements, and several other reasons, we will probably stay away from a company that manufactures the best autos in the world with the most important mission statement for blue planet.


----------



## JWardell (May 9, 2016)

Eric714 said:


> Chamath Palihapitiya on CNBC today. Worth watching. Love the slam on short-seller James Chanos.


Note this part was edited out before CNBC broadcast it!


----------



## Wooloomooloo (Oct 29, 2017)

JWardell said:


> Note this part was edited out before CNBC broadcast it!


It was live - I assume you mean when rebroadcast they shortened it?


----------



## John (Apr 16, 2016)

StromTrooperM3 said:


> Because it looks cool on Instagram. I'd rather you just give me a car that's painted properly. Let's master the basics before we go crazy elsewhere


I know you're probably joking, but most computing systems, especially mobile systems and laptops, are thermally limited. You push the clock rate for sustained periods and you can see the processor begin to be throttled to limit temperatures.

That's why Tesla mentioned the entire power budget, including the cost of cooling. It's required. The cooling kits gamers get are functional, as are the upgraded power supplies that are a MUST to even start with enough power to run those cards.

NVidia's challenge is related to the reason Intel has struggled mightily to compete with ARM architectures in mobile. Intel has always designed for performance, not TOPS/watt. At first they just lost mobile, now they scramble in server farms.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Even without the HW3 chip, just the battery tech alone sets Tesla apart from the competition. 

Just think... if the competition offered exactly the same package, but with non-Tesla batteries, they’d lose on cost, efficiency, energy density and performance. And with a Maxwell acquisition and plans for a million mile battery, plus non-battery related drivetrain improvements such as in the recent S/X update, that gap will widen even much further. 

Consider all of the superlatives of Tesla:

- Best CPU in the world, by far
- Best commercially viable batteries
- The only fully software configurable vehicles
- The only vehicles with OTA updates 
- Most real world driving data by orders of magnitude 
- #1 leader in autonomous tech
- Best autonomous hardware suite
- Neural net visual recognition & true AI that can identify minute details such as pedestrians using their cellphones, not just “objects” on the road 
- Machine learning - a system that trains & improves itself over time 
- Fleet learning - cars that communicate with each other 
- Safest vehicles 
- The most fun vehicles (Easter eggs)
- Most innovative tech company 
- Most vertically integrated 
- Fastest growing 
- Highest projected profit margin growth 
- Highest customer loyalty & satisfaction 
- Most viral
- Fastest acceleration 
- The only vehicles that improve over time 
- Teslas are more than cars - they are robots, computers, fun machines, arcades, drag racers, mobile hotel rooms, escape pods, freedom mobiles, movie theaters, stargazers

No other car company comes close. 

So what if there’s a new BMW M3 on the way... With 1 software update, all Teslas would beat that M3!

With 1 software update Tesla vehicles will turn into robotaxis that would eat into Uber & Lyft’s market space. 

Believe it when Elon stated that it would make absolutely no sense to buy any car other than a Tesla. And once they achieve L4/L5 autonomous capability, other cars will be like horses. I can’t wait for that day when everyone realizes this!


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> just the battery tech alone sets Tesla apart from the competition.


Yep. Tesla has almost a 10-year lead in batteries and electric drivetrains. And it shows when you see just how inefficient the I-Pace and e-tron are.

Tesla's flaws (interiors and customer service in particular) should be solved more quickly and easily, mostly by finding and hiring a few industry veterans. But existing automakers will have a much harder and longer time catching up in battery, motor, and motor controls. For starters, I don't believe *any* of them are building their own motors or batteries - that job is contracted out to other companies. And they can't source enough material to create enough batteries to satisfy their existing small demand.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

I can personally attest to the inferiority of competitors’ batteries. 

After 40,000 miles of normal driving, the high voltage battery of my Ford Focus Electric went kaput. It cost Ford $38,000 to replace the battery excluding labor and it took 3 months before I got the car back. I could’ve bought myself a base Model 3 with that expense!


----------



## E.V.Texan (Aug 29, 2018)

This is an interesting thread. For every person, or fund that beats the S&P average, there are 10 that don't . There is a buyer and a seller on each side of every trade. However, beating the averages, can and is, often done.

The landscape is full of failed companies. Fraud, mismanagement, or changing markets are a constant. 

That said, weather it's the flash crash of 1987, the dotcom crash of 2000, or the crash of 2008-2009, sometimes it looks pretty easy to pick stocks.


----------



## Guest (May 3, 2019)

E.V.Texan said:


> For every person, or fund that beats the S&P average, there are 10 that don't.


I am going to go out on a limb here to say that I believe it is < 1 in 10 over the long-term. I have been mis-picking stocks for over 30 years now. I may have been lucky here and there to enable me to retire at 50 in spite of never having a high power job/salary.

btw, killer avatar you have there


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

garsh said:


> Tesla's flaws (interiors and customer service in particular) should be solved more quickly and easily, mostly by finding and hiring a few industry veterans.


When you say the solution is to hire "industry veterans", I hope you don't mean "auto industry veterans". Yes, they need some expert management at the top of every major department but I don't think it needs to come from the auto industry. Good management is good management and Tesla is where they are today not by following auto industry norms but by breaking them.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

PNWmisty said:


> Tesla is where they are today not by following auto industry norms but by breaking them.


They're certainly not going to find customer service experts from the auto industry - other manufacturers don't deal with customer service at all. But Tesla is "breaking norms" in this area by being particularly bad. Finding someone to spearhead a customer service improvement initiative shouldn't be too hard - just don't hire anybody from the cable industry. 

As for interiors, other manufacturers seem to do a better job nowadays at eliminating the various squeaks and rattles that plague Teslas. I don't think they need a manager - just a single engineer with experience and knowledge in this area.


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

garsh said:


> As for interiors, other manufacturers seem to do a better job nowadays at eliminating the various squeaks and rattles that plague Teslas. I don't think they need a manager - just a single engineer with experience and knowledge in this area.


I'm having trouble believing this. We drive both of our Model 3's on really bad roads (and off road). I hit speed bumps and railroad crossings at the maximum speed that doesn't cause excessive drama. In other words, much faster than I see other cars hitting bumps. And I have good hearing for 55 years old and my wife thinks I'm overly picky about having her adjust her personal belongings so they don't rattle in the car. The smallest buzz or rattle will have me asking her to fix it. And neither of our Model 3's have ever developed a single rattle. So, I have to assume it's engineered to be rattle free and those who have rattles are probably looking at an assembly error.

It's very hard to determine the rate of a defect from on-line forums (or a very small sample size of one or two) but I would think if the car was so poorly designed as to be a rattle trap it would be extremely unlikely that we would get two examples without a single rattle. Note that I'm not saying that some of them don't rattle, just that we don't know if it's any higher or lower than any other car.


----------



## E.V.Texan (Aug 29, 2018)

Ms. Newbie Electrick said:


> btw, killer avatar you have there


Thanks!! I designed it, with some help from Elon.


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

E.V.Texan said:


> Thanks!! I designed it, with some help from Elon.


Come on, give some love to Franz van (can't spell his last name)!


----------



## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

Ms. Newbie Electrick said:


> I am going to go out on a limb here to say that I believe it is < 1 in 10 over the long-term. I have been mis-picking stocks for over 30 years now.


You are not alone.

"Over the last 15 years, 92.2% of large-cap funds lagged a simple S&P 500 index fund. The percentages of mid-cap and small-cap funds lagging their benchmarks were even higher: 95.4% and 93.2%, respectively.

In other words, the odds you'll do better than an index fund are close to 1 out of 20 when picking an actively-managed domestic equity mutual fund."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...-funds-beat-the-sp-than-we-thought-2017-04-24


----------



## VoltageDrop (Sep 16, 2018)

He is more like the "Tesla" of our generation......pun intended


----------



## John (Apr 16, 2016)

PNWmisty said:


> When you say the solution is to hire "industry veterans", I hope you don't mean "auto industry veterans". Yes, they need some expert management at the top of every major department but I don't think it needs to come from the auto industry. Good management is good management and Tesla is where they are today not by following auto industry norms but by breaking them.


I for one as an investor am super happy about what these interlopers from Silicon Valley have done as newbies in the auto business. They are not better at *everything* compared to the trad automakers, but I totally dig their priorities. They get the important, valuable stuff right. They do a solid job at the other stuff. A surprisingly solid job.

In my opinion we were not in my lifetime going to get great software in cars. It has been so bad, so obviously, for so long. In every case, software was treated as a shinier version of familiar things, and it was written by others.

Such foot dragging progress, even while software was rapidly becoming the most valuable part of every other business. Software is what lets Uber beat deeply entrenched taxi companies. Software is why Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Facebook are worth so much. Software is why any service company (e.g. dog walking) needs an app.

At one point software (in the hands of the financing arm) powered the most valuable part of GM (financing).

But inside the car, automakers-whose design decisions have long been dominated by cost concerns-have treated software as a necessary evil, one they gladly outsourced to JBL, Delco, Blaupunkt, and others. Their "vision" was limited to moving instrumentation to LCDs and producing digital versions of analog gauges, rather than truly giving the software the transformative role it has played in all other industries.

They weren't adding software to empower the cars, they were adding just enough software to seem modern and amuse people. A little. As long as it didn't piss off the dealers with customer support calls.

So offer me two cars:

A car with thoroughly modern networked software (and thus continuously updated) that integrates with the rest of the devices in my life and has okay paint and solid interior
A beautifully painted car, sumptuously appointed, immaculate in every detail, with traditional instruments
I'll pay a premium, like I do with my phone and my computers, for #1. I have no interest in #2.

An as an investor, I ask myself: "Who's positioned to get the most valuable part of autos (software) right in cars?" Someone could say, "Automakers should focus on making stuff efficiently. They can source software from many places."

To that, I would counter with a quote from Steve Jobs, himself quoting Alan Kay: "The best software makers make their own hardware."

It's not about making the best hardware.

*It's about making the right hardware to take advantage of the best software. *

There is only one automaker in 2019 who thinks that way. Most of their engineers are software engineers. Most of their open hiring slots are for software people. And it's the right way to think if you want a valuable company in the future.

Lose at paint. Lose at Fine Corinthian Leather. Get software right, and those don't matter.


----------



## StromTrooperM3 (Mar 27, 2019)

John said:


> Lose at paint. Lose at Fine Corinthian Leather. Get software right, and those don't matter


Coming from someone who owns a few classic cars, I would have to personally disagree. I have an 84 Black on Black Cadillac that has 60k miles on it and have to argue with people who swear I had it repainted at some point. When you look into the black paint it looks like it's a mile deep. The leather seats are original and like sitting on your couch at home. Being 30 years old and an IT Admin I love technology and software, but I would rather have rock solid build quality as a priority. I'd take number 2 all day long. It's a shame one has to buy a Bentley or Rolls Royce to obtain such details. But I'm on the quest for that in my lifetime. I want the car to feel solid and well built. Not plastic panels snapped together with plastic clips.

I think we've been conditioned to settle for less quality as the focus has been shifted to maximize profit at our expense. This goes the same for many products today as well. Furniture is another big one.


----------



## VoltageDrop (Sep 16, 2018)

So......how about that TSLA stock price......it's quickly approaching my stop limit......debating if I should cancel the limit sale and hang on for the ride or just cut my losses and come back in at a lower price point to make up the loss....assuming that it will eventually go back up......decisions....decisions.....


----------



## FF35 (Jul 13, 2018)

Are the few shares I have going to be worthless? With a range of $200-$4,000, it sure it hard to figure out.


----------



## VoltageDrop (Sep 16, 2018)

FF35 said:


> Are the few shares I have going to be worthless? With a range of $200-$4,000, it sure it hard to figure out.


Cut my losses with TSLA at $238 and some change/stock........rolled it into Bitcoin instead........making back my losses now.......woo-hoo


----------



## ModelYMaven (May 11, 2019)

VoltageDrop said:


> Cut my losses with TSLA at $238 and some change/stock........rolled it into Bitcoin instead........making back my losses now.......woo-hoo


I just bought a whole 4 shares of TSLA Friday am. Lost a few bucks.......should I give it a few more months?


----------



## VoltageDrop (Sep 16, 2018)

ModelYMaven said:


> I just bought a whole 4 shares of TSLA Friday am. Lost a few bucks.......should I give it a few more months?


That is entirely up to you....I couldn't stomach it any further and cut my losses.....I may buy back in at some point but not yet sure......


----------



## John (Apr 16, 2016)

The biggest gripe right now is: the upside is harshly limited by production capacity.

But once the Chinese Gigafactory 3 plant opens, with its amazingly efficient supplier cross-docks (developed in the tent!), it will suddenly seem possible that Tesla is still in growth mode. Then the European plant plans will be announced (Germany?), and the whole growth story will be back on.

The shorts’ last great hope is that demand has dried up, and Tesla will have to scale back growth plans.

Place your bets now, folks.


----------



## NJturtlePower (Dec 19, 2017)

Rock bottom today guys... $214-ish over 6% down currently


----------



## victor (Jun 24, 2016)

NJturtlePower said:


> Rock bottom today guys... $214-ish over 6% down


Day Low 212.65
Surprise closing at $220?


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

TSLA is now selling around $200 a share. I thought the stock had a better chance of reaching the $400 mark than $200.

Perhaps the greatest American innovation success story of modern times and a beacon of hope for a sustainable and prosperous future for our children and grandchildren, instead of being celebrated, is being battered left and right by its own people AND its own government. 

It goes to show that the world we live in today makes absolutely no sense.


----------



## FF35 (Jul 13, 2018)

The future will be brighter than the present.


----------



## Eric714 (Feb 16, 2019)

Here's the $TSLA stock chart for posterity.










The market move today is being attributed in part to Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives lowering his price target from $275 to $230.

Cause and effect are not always that simple. When something happens, people (financial media talking heads) look around for what changed and contribute that to being the cause. Correlation is not causation. Ives has a fairly good track record - he's correct about 59% of the time. https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/daniel-ives But at $230, he's still "bullish" on Tesla.

Part of what's killing the stock now is "stop loss" orders. People have automatic sell orders if the stock reaches a particular threshold, a sell order goes to the market. Like Ross Gerber

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1130464711282110465
It's like pouring gasoline on a fire.

At some point, short sellers are going to take profits. When they do, there will be a "short-squeeze bounce" and it will move the stock higher. I am not sure if that will be enough to change the long-term trend to bullish.










Short Interest is 37,925,793 shares, which is 30% of all shares outstanding. That close to the all-time high for bearish interest.

There's a broader tech sector move going on here - which is impacting Tesla. Other stocks down big today include AAPL, MU, and EA.

There's also an adage on Wall Street "Sell in May and go away." Historically, May begins the worst performing 6-month period in the DJIA and S&P 500 of the year.

The options market is telling us that there's fear of more volatility on the horizon for Tesla. This is a chart of the Implied Volatility index (gold line) from iVolatility.com. It shows a huge spike in IV over the past couple days - from 45% to 55%. (Look very closely to the last part of the chart.) This is significant.










[The VIX is an IV index that is supposed to measure fear in the market. Objectively speaking, the VIX does a poor job telling us what it supposed to. The VIX is more correlated to historical volatility than it is to realized volatility. That's not how it's supposed to work. However, implied volatility indices for equities tend to be good predictors of future, realized volatility. ]

This IV chart is telling us that we should expect about a ±3% move on a daily basis for about the next 30 calendar days. This is not encouraging for people who are long stock and have a short-term horizon.

I am personally very bullish on $TSLA. I can justify a $400 valuation. But I expect a bumpy road and I know that $TSLA can go lower from here.

I hope it doesn't. But hope is not a strategy.


----------



## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

Still playing with TSLA house money from long ago, added a few more shares at 204.50, or about $100 below my last nibble a few months ago... Wheeee!  

I have no illusions that this purchase is largely a knife-catching expedition, and have sized it accordingly. Average price for the shares I currently own is now 233.47, with a multi-year time horizon for holding onto them.


----------



## iChris93 (Feb 3, 2017)

Bokonon said:


> Average price for the shares I currently own is now 233.47, with a multi-year time horizon for holding onto them.


Wish mine was that low.


----------



## TheHairyOne (Nov 28, 2018)

Saw 196 today... I should have bought another Tesla vs. buyign shares at 235 😂 

mmm (3M) is at a huge discount right now too.

I'm going to clench the falling knife hard and scream like my daughter needed the money for college lol


----------



## FF35 (Jul 13, 2018)

Morgan Stanley states $10/share is the worst case.


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

FF35 said:


> Morgan Stanley states $10/share is the worst case.


That's the biggest joke I have ever heard. What do these people get by doing and why is sec not behind these so called analysts?


----------



## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

webdriverguy said:


> That's the biggest joke I have ever heard. What do these people get by doing and why is sec not behind these so called analysts?


Clearly, Morgan Stanley analysts are off the mark. Worst case is $0/share.


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

FRC said:


> Clearly, Morgan Stanley analysts are off the mark. Worst case is $0/share.


Lol


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

FRC said:


> Clearly, Morgan Stanley analysts are off the mark. Worst case is $0/share.


Load them up. May be musk will take the company private ...... kidding


----------



## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

webdriverguy said:


> Load them up. May be musk will take the company private ...... kidding


I bought a few shares yesterday at 200.50.


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> It goes to show that the world we live in today makes absolutely no sense.


It _is_ unfortunate, but I have accepted the very real possibility that while I consider EV's to be the future, the industry might still consider it a passing fad, and by the time my Model 3 gets older, the only choice would be gas cars again - gas SUV's actually, if the predictions from GM hold. These days, industries tend strongly toward mediocrity at a better margin, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

There are still so many bad things that could happen to Tesla between now and 8 years from now. It could lose funding in the middle of an expansion; could suffer an even stronger stock price drop followed by a hostile takeover or buyout offer from a _very_ hostile competitor that would dismantle the company; they could be hit by a sudden worldwide recession before their expansion find its footing; or it could be GM was right, and the market for _cars _has collapsed, and Tesla not replacing their car line with SUV's quickly enough causes their demise. Note that all of those except for the recession, stock holders might benefit as a buyer comes along who sees the value in the production facilities and proprietary tech, but mediocrity wins, and we lose the leader in EV's in the process.

And of course, if the EV leader Tesla comes apart, the other manufacturers will simply say "See? This proves EV's are not viable in the current market"...and the fad will end.

On the plus side, I still think Tesla going private is still a very real possibility. I believe if the stock prices collapse, and they're besieged by a hostile takeover/buyout attempt, Elon Musk will likely dig up some very real partners and financial support this time to buy out the company. This would also benefit stock holders briefly as the self-buyout price will likely end up way higher than what most who own stock now paid for it. Unfortunately that might also mean a slimmer and sleeker Tesla at first as they struggle to obtain funding once again, and a lot of un-produced products might be cancelled until they reach full profitability.


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

JasonF said:


> It _is_ unfortunate, but I have accepted the very real possibility that while I consider EV's to be the future, the industry might still consider it a passing fad, and by the time my Model 3 gets older, the only choice would be gas cars again - gas SUV's actually, if the predictions from GM hold. These days, industries tend strongly toward mediocrity at a better margin, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
> 
> There are still so many bad things that could happen to Tesla between now and 8 years from now. It could lose funding in the middle of an expansion; could suffer an even stronger stock price drop followed by a hostile takeover or buyout offer from a _very_ hostile competitor that would dismantle the company; they could be hit by a sudden worldwide recession before their expansion find its footing; or it could be GM was right, and the market for _cars _has collapsed, and Tesla not replacing their car line with SUV's quickly enough causes their demise. Note that all of those except for the recession, stock holders might benefit as a buyer comes along who sees the value in the production facilities and proprietary tech, but mediocrity wins, and we lose the leader in EV's in the process.
> 
> ...


I don't think they will go private any time soon. Just wondering why would gas cars be option again if model 3 gets older?


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

webdriverguy said:


> I don't think they will go private any time soon. Just wondering why would gas cars be option again if model 3 gets older?


It's an expression of time passing - somewhere between 5-10 years from now, depending on how long I wait before upgrading. I keep my cars in really good condition, so I don't usually see a reason to trade it in earlier than that. 

Nearly every other manufacturer is making EV's for the same reason the media keeps using the word "blockchain" - they don't understand or or want it, but it has a lot of buzz right now and they don't want to be left out. If Tesla fails or is bought out and disassembled, within the next decade, those other manufacturers will likely see EV's as a failed trend, and go back to what they already know how to make - gasoline vehicles - not because they believe in it, but because they can make them cheaply and sell them at a much higher margin.

That's what I call enforced mediocrity. Outdated technology (not just the engines, but the mechanics and interiors as well) dominating, and possibly winning out, for the foreseeable future because it's cheaper and financially safer. Kind of like cable companies and their TV service with set-top boxes from the 1990's.


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

JasonF said:


> It's an expression of time passing - somewhere between 5-10 years from now, depending on how long I wait before upgrading. I keep my cars in really good condition, so I don't usually see a reason to trade it in earlier than that.
> 
> Nearly every other manufacturer is making EV's for the same reason the media keeps using the word "blockchain" - they don't understand or or want it, but it has a lot of buzz right now and they don't want to be left out. If Tesla fails or is bought out and disassembled, within the next decade, those other manufacturers will likely see EV's as a failed trend, and go back to what they already know how to make - gasoline vehicles - not because they believe in it, but because they can make them cheaply and sell them at a much higher margin.
> 
> That's what I call enforced mediocrity. Outdated technology (not just the engines, but the mechanics and interiors as well) dominating, and possibly winning out, for the foreseeable future because it's cheaper and financially safer. Kind of like cable companies and their TV service with set-top boxes from the 1990's.


Nicely explained but do you really think tesla will be bought? No doubt they are struggling but part of me thinks they should not be bought. I think elon can execute when he is left alone. How does the whole voting thing work with board of directors to approve a acquisition when elon owns 20% of the company? 
Hope Giga3 buildout will give them some momemtum. They still cant crank cars out fast enough. Are they at 8k a week now?


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

webdriverguy said:


> Nicely explained but do you really think tesla will be bought?


Do I think so? No. It's probably good that the company is considered schizophrenic and poisonous by the industry - no one will buy them out if they have to replace all of the management and risk losing the "magic" that makes the company work, because they could lose their entire investment.

Are they a really big target for purchase? Probably. In the cases of the big U.S. automakers, they might plan to buy out Tesla just to eliminate the competition. I've considered that General Motors would love to give it the Saturn treatment - buy it, let it exist independently for a while, and then fire everyone and discontinue the brand and product line. What they get out of it is free R&D, new engineering methods, and Autopilot technology.

But I also think a threat of that kind of buyout would definitely spark Elon to put together _real_ funding and investors to fight it.


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

JasonF said:


> Do I think so? No. It's probably good that the company is considered schizophrenic and poisonous by the industry - no one will buy them out if they have to replace all of the management and risk losing the "magic" that makes the company work, because they could lose their entire investment.
> 
> Are they a really big target for purchase? Probably. In the cases of the big U.S. automakers, they might plan to buy out Tesla just to eliminate the competition. I've considered that General Motors would love to give it the Saturn treatment - buy it, let it exist independently for a while, and then fire everyone and discontinue the brand and product line. What they get out of it is free R&D, new engineering methods, and Autopilot technology.
> 
> But I also think a threat of that kind of buyout would definitely spark Elon to put together _real_ funding and investors to fight it.


Instead of the buyout may be a company like apple can invest. Just throwing some numbers but a investment of say 5b in tesla by apple and all of a sudden tesla is well positioned to execute in future. Really hoping this company not get bought out by a auto maker. We need crazy ppl like elon to push innovations forward.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

JasonF said:


> ...while I consider EV's to be the future, the industry might still consider it a passing fad, and by the time my Model 3 gets older, the only choice would be gas cars again - gas SUV's actually, if the predictions from GM hold. These days, industries tend strongly toward mediocrity at a better margin, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
> 
> There are still so many bad things that could happen to Tesla between now and 8 years from now. It could lose funding in the middle of an expansion; could suffer an even stronger stock price drop followed by a hostile takeover or buyout offer from a _very_ hostile competitor that would dismantle the company; they could be hit by a sudden worldwide recession before their expansion find its footing; or it could be GM was right, and the market for _cars _has collapsed, and Tesla not replacing their car line with SUV's quickly enough causes their demise...


An example of a fad is GoPro. An example of a disruptor is the iPhone. The two don't compare.

So which one is more like the Model 3?

Pretty soon the auto industry will have no say just like Nokias & Motorolas of 12 years ago.

GM wouldn't be able to compete for a hostile takeover with the likes of Google, Apple and Amazon which are already invested heavily in the race to revolutionize transportation. Tesla would be a most valuable asset to them. The first two have been in talks to buy Tesla in the past. Worst case for Tesla is when one of these tech companies buys them out and eventually forces the likes of GM to go bankrupt.

Teslas have the best profit margin out there and is expected to go higher as battery tech becomes cheaper and their autonomous software proves to be superior. But even with today's battery prices, buying a Model 3 is like buying a Porsche for half price, which explains why the Model 3 outsells all other traditional automakers in the premium midsize sedan space and has caused double digit % loss in their sales figures. And if we truly believe Elon's statement that other cars will seem like horses compared to Teslas, then no one will be stupid enough to buy any car other than a Tesla.

Bottom line is that Tesla is no ordinary company. It's set to disrupt multiple industries and it has already entered into a growth stage that will be hard to stop. The company is a beast now that revenue is soaring. It has over $5B in cash at hand and has no problems raising more cash in the future if need be.

Even in a worldwide recession their worst case growth projection is at an incredible 40% to 50%.

Their Shanghai gigafactory will start production this year in the largest EV market, China. Model Y begins deliveries next year and is expected to outsell S/3/X combined.

The likelihood of GM's prediction is pretty slim IMHO.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> An example of a fad is GoPro.


GoPros seem to still be the go-to equipment for creating action videos still. Anybody taking action shots on a car just mount a GoPro to a suction mount and stick it somewhere on the vehicle.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

garsh said:


> GoPros seem to still be the go-to equipment for creating action videos still. Anybody taking action shots on a car just mount a GoPro to a suction mount and stick it somewhere on the vehicle.


For all intensive purposes, the GoPro is still a fad and not the high flyer it used to be. And yes, I do own one.


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> An example of a fad is GoPro. An example of a disruptor is the iPhone. The two don't compare.
> 
> So which one is more like the Model 3?
> 
> ...


So to make tech companies like Apple & Google a little difficult to buy Tesla the stock should be ~500. Hope Tesla crosses that mark. I want to see Tesla an independent company.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

webdriverguy said:


> So to make tech companies like Apple & Google a little difficult to buy Tesla the stock should be ~500.


Apple has $245B USD cash
Alphabet has $115B USD cash

Tesla's market cap at $500/share would only be $88.7B USD. Either company could easily afford such a purchase if they thought it was a worthwhile investment. The main deterrent to such a takeover attempt is the fact that Elon & friends are the majority shareholders and wouldn't be willing to sell.


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> An example of a fad is GoPro. An example of a disruptor is the iPhone. The two don't compare.


I agree with that - however, even when the iPhone was a brand-new product in 2007, other companies were slow to admit that it _was_ a disruptor. Those companies (not just producers of cell phones, the cell service providers as well) waited a while, and several press outlets predicted the demise of the iPhone because it was too expensive to buy and own.

Tesla is a disruptor, but right now it's in that fragile space where the industry doesn't really take it all that seriously. A few of them put out EV models to test the waters, and to look like they're on the cutting edge, but nearly all of them are just rehashes of gasoline vehicles with the same interior tech, no software updates, and an electric motor and batteries jammed in where the gas motor used to be. Rivan is probably as close to "EV reality" as I can see any company getting right now, and they have yet to produce any vehicles.

You know what would convince me that the industry is taking it seriously? When Nissan (because they're the closest to making it a reality) re-thinks a couple of their popular selling cars to adopt the Leaf platform and go full EV; When Mitsubishi makes their almost-but-not-quite PHEV fully electric; When Ford, which seems to be the most forward thinking of all the backward US automakers finally goes all-in and releases a handful of cars/SUV's designed from the ground up to be fully electric.

Right now they're just sticking a toe in the water, not getting fully invested, so when this "trend" passes, they haven't put much into it anyway. I don't buy the excuse that it's because batteries are still too expensive, and those cars will be too pricey. Once all of the big automakers go all in, batteries will quickly hit that economy of scale and become commodity items that don't contribute much more to the cost than state-of-the-art internal combustion does now.


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

garsh said:


> Apple has $245B USD cash
> Alphabet has $115B USD cash
> 
> Tesla's market cap at $500/share would only be $88.7B USD. Either company could easily afford such a purchase if they thought it was a worthwhile investment. The main deterrent to such a takeover attempt is the fact that Elon & friends are the majority shareholders and wouldn't be willing to sell.


Yes sure 88b but companies are bought with a premium. With company like tesla give or take 40% premium which will be ~30-35b on top of 88. So 120b acquisition plus whatever debt tesla has. Apple has never done acquisitions that big. Not sure about google.


----------



## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

webdriverguy said:


> Yes sure 88b but companies are bought with a premium.


@garsh already added the premium by setting the acquisition price at $500/share--way, way over whatever price it will be today.


webdriverguy said:


> plus whatever debt tesla has.


This is a valid point, and should be included in the actual acquisition price.


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

Dr. J said:


> @garsh already added the premium by setting the acquisition price at $500/share--way, way over whatever price it will be today.
> 
> This is a valid point, and should be included in the actual acquisition price.


No the point I was making earlier was tesla should get to 500 bucks a share to make it difficult for other companies to acquire them


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

JasonF said:


> I agree with that - however, even when the iPhone was a brand-new product in 2007, other companies were slow to admit that it _was_ a disruptor. Those companies (not just producers of cell phones, the cell service providers as well) waited a while, and several press outlets predicted the demise of the iPhone because it was too expensive to buy and own.
> 
> Tesla is a disruptor, but right now it's in that fragile space where the industry doesn't really take it all that seriously. A few of them put out EV models to test the waters, and to look like they're on the cutting edge, but nearly all of them are just rehashes of gasoline vehicles with the same interior tech, no software updates, and an electric motor and batteries jammed in where the gas motor used to be. Rivan is probably as close to "EV reality" as I can see any company getting right now, and they have yet to produce any vehicles.
> 
> ...


I don't understand the premise that in order for EVs to become successful the traditional automakers should follow suit. Not that I think it's a bad idea... in fact it would be great if all automakers were serious about producing EVs in mass! But I believe that the clear trend is for the industry to either go electric or go extinct like the dinosaurs.

So too bad for the likes of Maserati. They're bound to disappear if they keep insisting on sticking to ICE drivetrains. All other automakers are feeling pressure from the Tesla effect, much like retailers are feeling the Amazon effect. They are losing huge market share due to S, X, and especially Model 3 sales. But it doesn't matter whether they achieve EV adoption or not because there are a whole bunch of startups, mostly from China, who are about to take their place.

Come to think of it, the entire auto industry is indeed taking EVs very seriously. Legacy automakers have begun investing into supply chain, manufacturing, etc, but they are still way behind and way too fragmented (lack of vertical integration) to be able to compete with Tesla. Executive management teams are scrambling to find a way to sell medium range EV rivals in mass and profitably, while also trying to sell their ICEVs. With all that legacy baggage and lack of vertical integration and infrastructure, they're in a much tougher situation than startups who have gone full electric from the start. Every attempt so far, they're losing a fortune on every EV they sell.

For example, my Ford Focus Electric battery cost Ford $38k to replace, labor excluded. Terrible batteries that are terribly expensive.

Legacy automakers have much to suffer before most of them eventually go bankrupt EDIT: or merge with other companies in order to stay afloat. Those partnerships are already happening; for example, BMW is producing the new Toyota Supra.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

webdriverguy said:


> No the point I was making earlier was tesla should get to 500 bucks a share to make it difficult for other companies to acquire them


And my point is that the stock price doesn't matter. If the majority owners aren't willing to sell their shares, then nobody else can buy enough to take over control, at any price.


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

garsh said:


> And my point is that the stock price doesn't matter. If the majority owners aren't willing to sell their shares, then nobody else can buy enough to take over control, at any price.


Yeah makes sense


----------



## NJturtlePower (Dec 19, 2017)

In better news, I FINALLY own some Tesla stocks...just got in at $195! Never thought I would see it under $200 again, so it's a small win in my book.


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> I don't understand the premise that in order for EVs to become successful the traditional automakers should follow suit. Not that I think it's a bad idea... in fact it would be great if all automakers were serious about producing EVs in mass! But I believe that the clear trend is for the industry to either go electric or go extinct like the dinosaurs.


I don't either, but among the press (shame on you, Consumer Reports!) and many people who believe what they read, if Toyota and GM aren't doing it en mass, it's not real yet.



$ Trillion Musk said:


> Legacy automakers have much to suffer before most of them eventually go bankrupt EDIT: or merge with other companies in order to stay afloat. Those partnerships are already happening; for example, BMW is producing the new Toyota Supra.


Toyota has a habit of producing cars that are not really in their wheelhouse with other manufacturers.


----------



## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

NJturtlePower said:


> In better news, I FINALLY own some Tesla stocks...just got in at $195! Never thought I would see it under $200 again, so it's a small win in my book.


That picture is me... every time I drive my car.


----------



## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

Hmmm. Just thinking out loud via writing this post:

Is there any way that there's some internal attempt at manipulation to drive the price down so that Musk and friends can take the company private at a lower price point than, say, $420 as was the idea a few months back? Just a crazy thought that entered my crazy brain...


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

Elon picked up 175k more tesla shares


----------



## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Lovesword said:


> Hmmm. Just thinking out loud via writing this post:
> 
> Is there any way that there's some internal attempt at manipulation to drive the price down so that Musk and friends can take the company private at a lower price point than, say, $420 as was the idea a few months back? Just a crazy thought that entered my crazy brain...


that would be a much bigger SEC issue than him tweeting anything. insider trading rules and all


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

MelindaV said:


> that would be a much bigger SEC issue than him tweeting anything. insider trading rules and all


Would love it if Elon can take it private. Someone on Twitter was mentioning lary was on apples board before when we helped jobs save Apple from bankruptcy. Now he is again on tesla board.


----------



## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

MelindaV said:


> that would be a much bigger SEC issue than him tweeting anything. insider trading rules and all


Agreed. Just my mind wondering off while at work... I don't need it while I'm there. 🤤


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

JasonF said:


> shame on you, Consumer Reports!


Ditto! Can't believe they have the nerve to call out an L2 autonomous feature against an L5/human driver! The difference is obvious and makes for an unfair comparison. Someone there wants to load up on TSLA shares.


----------



## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Ditto! Can't believe they have the nerve to call out an L2 autonomous feature against an L5/human driver! The difference is obvious and makes for an unfair comparison. Someone there wants to load up on TSLA shares.


But...everything is _better_ when it's only 40% complete! Just imagine:

- the steak I'm about to cook was only 40% butchered. (Still mooing)
- the beer I will drink while grilling out is 40% brewed. (I'll have to chew some barley and hops I guess.)
- this last joke will be 4...

Oh man that last one is hilarious.
😏


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

Lovesword said:


> But...everything is _better_ when it's only 40% complete! Just imagine:
> 
> - the steak I'm about to cook was only 40% butchered. (Still mooing)
> - the beer I will drink while grilling out is 40% brewed. (I'll have to chew some barley and hops I guess.)
> ...


To share some good news Elon's company got a 40m contract from Las Vegas

https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/22/18636326/las-vegas-people-mover-lvcc-boring-company


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Ditto! Can't believe they have the nerve to call out an L2 autonomous feature against an L5/human driver! The difference is obvious and makes for an unfair comparison. Someone there wants to load up on TSLA shares.


At this point I don't even care about cr. They will vanish in near future.


----------



## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

garsh said:


> And my point is that the stock price doesn't matter. If the majority owners aren't willing to sell their shares, then nobody else can buy enough to take over control, at any price.


Yeah, I missed all that.


----------



## VoltageDrop (Sep 16, 2018)

I bought back in at $195 today......watched it go down to $190........will brave through this downward trend for now as it hopefully is reaching its bottom soon.... hopefully by this time next year this will all be water under the bridge and TSLA will be soaring high and free..........have my stop loss limit set nevertheless so that I don't lose the clothes off of my back in this one......


----------



## fritter63 (Nov 9, 2018)

Holy crap, all of a sudden the analysts are a ting like somebody pissed in their Tesla wheaties.

And we have a leaked email from Elon talking about cash flow, 10 months, etc 

At the same time we have a leak from him talking about record sales.

Is this all just FUD? Or should I cancel my order? About to become another DeLorean?

Thoughts?


----------



## FF35 (Jul 13, 2018)

fritter63 said:


> Holy crap, all of a sudden the analysts are a ting like somebody pissed in their Tesla wheaties.
> 
> And we have a leaked email from Elon talking about cash flow, 10 months, etc
> 
> ...


Cancel your order? 🤦‍♂️

Don't think day-to-day. Think long term.


----------



## Vin (Mar 30, 2017)

fritter63 said:


> Is this all just FUD? Or should I cancel my order? About to become another DeLorean?
> 
> Thoughts?


No way should you cancel your order. This car is still the best car out there and even if Tesla disappeared (which it won't even if another company buys it) you'd have an amazing car that you can still plug in and use for years. It wasn't that long ago that Tesla owners were volunteering for free to help Tesla make deliveries so we are not going down, at least not without a fight!


----------



## Allan (May 17, 2018)

Lovesword said:


> Hmmm. Just thinking out loud via writing this post:
> 
> Is there any way that there's some internal attempt at manipulation to drive the price down so that Musk and friends can take the company private at a lower price point than, say, $420 as was the idea a few months back? Just a crazy thought that entered my crazy brain...


It would be very easy for them to do this in a legitimate fashion. Most companies present as rosy a picture a possible when they report earnings. There is a ton of leeway in what they present and how they present it. They just have to also report under GAAP. If they wanted to yank the stock they could say 'we are concerned with our cash burn rate' 'we see our competitors catching up' 'sales are softening' and of course 'a Chinese trade war will have significant impact on our mid-term sales and revenue'. Those are all opinions and debatable but who says them is most important and if Elon said all 4 the stock would drop 20%.

Now, no flipping way that happens for a million reasons but it has happened in other companies/industries.


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/291985-spacex-successfully-launches-starlink-satellites spacex is going to generate 3b in revenues a year from this 10b project. This is big. Can spacex take tesla under their wings?


----------



## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

Tesla's 2018 revenue was over 21 billion, so maybe Tesla should take SpaceX under their wing?


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

FRC said:


> Tesla's 2018 revenue was over 21 billion, so maybe Tesla should take SpaceX under their wing?


There was this rumor floated around that SpaceX might be a possibility for Tesla if things go wrong. Looks like SpaceX would have good revenues coming in with starklink if it becomes big and they also have government contracts.


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

webdriverguy said:


> There was this rumor floated around that SpaceX might be a possibility for Tesla if things go wrong. Looks like SpaceX would have good revenues coming in with starklink if it becomes big and they also have government contracts.


Reading from the media reports it looks like musk is optimistic that the revenues from starlink will eventually reach 30b a year as they look to tap into 1t worldwide internet subscription business. the profit margins on those will be higher compared to the car business. But looks like they plan to use revenues from starlink for their other spacex projects


----------



## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

Can anyone imagine future Tesla’s utilizing Starlink instead of AT&T/whomever for their data connectivity? Maybe somebody at Tesla knows somebody over at SpaceX and can make that happen


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

slacker775 said:


> Can anyone imagine future Tesla's utilizing Starlink instead of AT&T/whomever for their data connectivity? Maybe somebody at Tesla knows somebody over at SpaceX and can make that happen


Maybe that's what they will do. Upload and download speeds of 1GBPS


----------



## 3Model3s (Jul 30, 2016)

I'm a conservative investor, too close to retirement to gamble. But my wife, who was meh on Tesla until she got here 3, is now all giddy on the Tesla tech/car she has and is a good sign of consumer acceptance. She wanted a share or two of TSLA (she knows very little on investing) and now with TSLA under $200/share she talked me into buying. Bought no more than what we can afford to lose and may peak her investing curiosity. I think the next couple years will be interesting,

Might be bummed in the near future when it goes back up over $350/share but I'll get over it. I thought about Netflix at $9.44/share and Bitcoin at $95 but didn't do it (and won't mention Amazon). Still no regrets on my investment philosophy. But maybe this time?


----------



## fritter63 (Nov 9, 2018)

Maybe Tesla can just merge with SpaceX? That way it helps the TSLA stock? AFAIK SpaceX is private right now, right?


----------



## iChris93 (Feb 3, 2017)

fritter63 said:


> AFAIK SpaceX is private right now, right?


Yes, SpaceX is private and Elon has said he does not want to make it public.


----------



## VoltageDrop (Sep 16, 2018)

I read that you can kinda "indirectly" own SpaceX by owning Alphabet stock.......don't remember exactly where I saw it but it was a few months back

Maybe "own" isn't the correct word to use above.....it's more like you can have an indirect "stake" in SpaceX via owning Alphabet because alphabet invested heavily in SpaceX


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

fritter63 said:


> Maybe Tesla can just merge with SpaceX? That way it helps the TSLA stock? AFAIK SpaceX is private right now, right?


Yes SpaceX is private. If starlink takes of and what Elon is claiming is remotely true that they are going after 1trillion internet market and hope to grab 3-4% of it then it's a huge cash cow for them. They are going to use that cash to fund their Mars mission.


----------



## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

webdriverguy said:


> Yes SpaceX is private. If starlink takes of and what Elon is claiming is remotely true that they are going after 1trillion internet market and hope to grab 3-4% of it then it's a huge cash cow for them. They are going to use that cash to fund their Mars mission.


I'll switch in a heartbeat. I have Mediacom... I HATE Mediacom.

Edit to add: can't switch...monopoly in this area. The competition can't even get more that 5Mbps down... while I pay Mediacom for 100 and HOPE it works. Buffering again? Check for outages again. Call and talk to support again...


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

Lovesword said:


> I'll switch in a heartbeat. I have Mediacom... I HATE Mediacom.
> 
> Edit to add: can't switch...monopoly in this area. The competition can't even get more that 5Mbps down... while I pay Mediacom for 100 and HOPE it works. Buffering again? Check for outages again. Call and talk to support again...


I use Verizon it's decent but I don't like the company at all. Same with Comcast.


----------



## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

first time in a while to see this


----------



## iChris93 (Feb 3, 2017)

MelindaV said:


> first time in a while to see this
> 
> View attachment 26272


And we're back down.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

iChris93 said:


> And we're back down.


I'd like to buy a few more shares, but I think the shorts are going to continue the campaign to push the stock price down. I'll have to pay attention to what the "consensus estimates" are for this quarter. If everybody is predicting a record quarter, then Tesla will most likely miss it, and the price will go down more.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Zac & Jessie predict another 6 month quiet period (no significant good news) from Tesla until the Model S refresh, which gives TSLAQ opportunity to keep the stock price down...

...while Jeremy believes that TSLA with its 100x revenue growth from 2011-2018 should be valuated at $625 per share today.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Took a walk down memory lane and rediscovered Jack Rickard's prediction of TSLA reaching $950 by 2022. (He correctly predicted the stock price to go to $350 when it was at $30.)

https://evannex.com/blogs/news/heres-why-tesla-stock-is-going-to-950-in-60-months

Wish he had also mentioned that TSLA would dip below $200 before then!


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Took a walk down memory lane and rediscovered Jack Rickard's prediction of TSLA reaching $950 by 2022. (He correctly predicted the stock price to go to $350 when it was at $30.)
> 
> https://evannex.com/blogs/news/heres-why-tesla-stock-is-going-to-950-in-60-months
> 
> Wish he had also mentioned that TSLA would dip below $200 before then!


Tesla to 950 in 2022 is a little aggressive


----------



## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

Funny. UBER just reported $1 Billion loss for the quarter! That's a Billion, not a Million. And that's for the quarter, not a year. Uber and Lyft are great ride sharing ideas for the next year or two, but as long term investments they are both jokes. There are no barriers to entry-- just an app that anyone can create. A third competitor could easily create "Drive" or "Pick Me Up." And analysts talk about how self-driving will help them in the future. That's exactly backwards. Only Tesla and maybe Waymo will explode when self-driving is solved. Uber and Lyft will go out of business...


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

casey morgan said:


> Funny. UBER just reported $1 Billion loss for the quarter! That's a Billion, not a Million. And that's for the quarter, not a year. Uber and Lyft are great ride sharing ideas for the next year or two, but as long term investments they are both jokes. There are no barriers to entry-- just an app that anyone can create. A third competitor could easily create "Drive" or "Pick Me Up." And analysts talk about how self-driving will help them in the future. That's exactly backwards. Only Tesla and maybe Waymo will explode when self-driving is solved. Uber and Lyft will go out of business...


I think it's too early to say they will go out of business but tesla will put a dent in their business for sure. Waymo is very quite about their FSD efforts. Who knows what they have in works


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Tesla opens online orders in China for Chinese made Model 3s. Demand is expected to be 3x that of the US. Their web servers got so busy that folks got 404 errors trying to access the order page. That should debunk the low demand bear thesis...

And TSLA is down again... 

Feels like a long episode of the Twilight Zone.


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Tesla opens online orders in China for Chinese made Model 3s. Demand is expected to be 3x that of the US. Their web servers got so busy that folks got 404 errors trying to access the order page. That should debunk the low demand bear thesis...
> 
> And TSLA is down again...
> 
> Feels like a long episode of the Twilight Zone.


Also they opened orders many other parts of the world, this is going to get crazy for them.


----------



## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

Yes. Right hand drives opened up for UK and Australia...


----------



## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

casey morgan said:


> A third competitor could easily create "Drive" or "Pick Me Up."


I'm thinking the latter is a dating app.


----------



## FF35 (Jul 13, 2018)

Did anyone see the updated Ark numbers? I'm long on TSLA and own one and even I think their numbers are insane. $6,106/share in 2023.

https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-valuation-model


----------



## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

FF35 said:


> Did anyone see the updated Ark numbers? I'm long on TSLA and own one and even I think their numbers are insane. $6,106/share in 2023.
> 
> https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-valuation-model


Yeah 6k ain't happening. I don't think it will be even 3k in 2023. This is just a guess in 2023 it might be 800 ish (again a guess)


----------



## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

FF35 said:


> Did anyone see the updated Ark numbers? I'm long on TSLA and own one and even I think their numbers are insane. $6,106/share in 2023.
> 
> https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-valuation-model


With nearly 173M shares currently outstanding, $6106/share implies a valuation just north of $1T... but Ark's model assumes another 56M shares will be issued to raise capital, so their model actually values the company at a whopping $1.4T. 

Astonishingly, the model somehow arrives at that number while completely omitting the Energy business. I have a hard time seeing Tesla becoming a $1T+ company in four years selling cars and mobility services alone. Getting to that valuation on that short a timeframe would require (1) a massive, urgent, global-scale move to embrace sustainable-energy solutions of all kinds, (2) Tesla to be recognized as the unchallenged leader in that space, and (3) sufficient working capital for production of all Tesla products to meet the resulting demand. That's a pretty tall order.

Alternatively, you could make a hand-waving argument that Mobility as a Service will be a $2T+ market by 2023 (5-10x most of the various guesstimates I've seen, such as this one), assume Tesla will capture about 30% market share, and arrive at a $1.4T market cap with a lot less effort.


----------



## JWardell (May 9, 2016)

Funny, I just bought some ARKK ETF, it seems they are the only fund that values Tesla, and that makes this a very good week to buy in to them. I do very much like disruptive innovation and hope it's a decent way to invest in it. Its seems they've been pretty successful so far


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

JWardell said:


> Funny, I just bought some ARKK ETF, it seems they are the only fund that values Tesla, and that makes this a very good week to buy in to them. I do very much like disruptive innovation and hope it's a decent way to invest in it. Its seems they've been pretty successful so far


If ever TSLA goes through a short squeeze, does anyone know whether an ETF's price such as that of ARKK would rise accordingly? In other words, is the ETF price a pure aggregation of the individual stocks' prices that make up the ETF?


----------



## Dale Gardner (Jul 1, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Tesla opens online orders in China for Chinese made Model 3s. Demand is expected to be 3x that of the US. Their web servers got so busy that folks got 404 errors trying to access the order page. That should debunk the low demand bear thesis...
> 
> And TSLA is down again...
> 
> Feels like a long episode of the Twilight Zone.


The entire market is down substantially. There is a multi-front trade war going on with our two largest trading partners (China and Mexico), compounded by additional market fears and indicators. None of this is Tesla-specific, but TSLA will continue to be impacted by it as investors sell off their stock holdings.

I also suspect that if we go to war with Iran, that would negatively affect the stock market as well.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

https://m.benzinga.com/article/13821950

*A League Of Its Own*
Tesla bears often talk about a wave of coming competition in the EV space, but Munster said there are two areas in which Tesla's technology is in a league of its own.
"One is the battery performance, and this is critical because range anxiety is something that prevents people from buying electric cars," he said.
Tesla's battery performance is consistently 40 percent to 60 percent better than competitors, according to Munster.
"The second is the manufacturing process, which has been held up as a pain point for Tesla, and undoubtedly it has been painful. But everything they're doing is shifting the manufacturing from a traditional car to really a computer on wheels," Munster said.
Over time, Munster said these superior technologies will be more reflected in Tesla's valuation.
Listen to the entire podcast in the clip below:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/benzinga-tv/id915782694?i=1000440496596


----------



## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

1. Yes ETFs like ARKK are made up of actual shares of underlying companies. So if TSLA is a large holding and shoots up ARKK will move up nicely as well

2. The biggest problem Munster and car analysts have (whether bullish or not) is that they are car analysts. Investment firms should have their tech analysts cover TSLA. Our value is in the tech, battery advances, self-driving, etc. Who cares how many cars are sold this quarter? Who cares if TSLA is profitable right now? The question should be "is this a disruptive technology with a head start over everyone else?" LYFT and UBER are losing over $1 Billion per quarter, but no one cares...


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Elon's companies are setting up for a China GDP sized disruption of multiple industries in order to better humanity. That's $13.3T estimated total, without factoring in the unknowns such as Neuralink.

Going against Elon would probably be a bad idea.


----------



## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

"Demand problem..." - FUD media army


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Is JB Straubel planning to exit Tesla?

https://electrek.co/2019/05/31/tesl...1BbzFJSHQxZjdvMWc1TW41Zk00UWhSd0lVdUpmUHlhblk.


----------



## JWardell (May 9, 2016)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Is JB Straubel planning to exit Tesla?
> 
> https://electrek.co/2019/05/31/tesl...1BbzFJSHQxZjdvMWc1TW41Zk00UWhSd0lVdUpmUHlhblk.


Hope not. Maybe he has been very busy working on the next secret project


----------



## victor (Jun 24, 2016)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Is JB Straubel planning to exit Tesla?
> 
> https://electrek.co/2019/05/31/tesl...1BbzFJSHQxZjdvMWc1TW41Zk00UWhSd0lVdUpmUHlhblk.


So much drama. He's been doing this for year(s).


----------



## slasher016 (Sep 12, 2017)

A bit of a bounceback so far today. . . long overdue.


----------



## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

I'd call it more than "a bit of a bounce back." From the low of $176.99 on June 3 to $215 today is a 22% move...


----------



## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

Mr. Spacely said:


> I'd call it more than "a bit of a bounce back." From the low of $176.99 on June 3 to $215 today is a 22% move...


From $367 in December of '18 to $215 today is also one hell of a move, -41%. The cars a fabulous, but until they figure out the business side, you'll continue to see these wild swings. Not for me, thanks!


----------



## victor (Jun 24, 2016)

Here is all of JB stock transactions. Started with owning 255K of common stock in 2010, now it's 306K. The lowest was 80K in 2012, the highest - 339K in 2017.

https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-dis...01494727&type=&dateb=&owner=include&start=240


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

FRC said:


> From $367 in December of '18 to $215 today is also one hell of a move, -41%. The cars a fabulous, but until they figure out the business side, you'll continue to see these wild swings. Not for me, thanks!


I'm not a huge fan of the volatility but it's not caused by a lack of business acumen, it's caused by FUD. Also the fact that Tesla has so much potential to be so dominant in a multi-trillion dollar business space makes it harder to value in the early years.

Musk himself said something to the effect of "If you don't like volatility, don't buy TSLA". Of course that would also entail on missing out on one incredible growth story. But, yeah, if it makes it difficult to sleep at night, you're probably better off well rested and poor!


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

victor said:


> Here is all of JB stock transactions. Started with owning 255K of common stock in 2010, now it's 306K. The lowest was 80K in 2012, the highest - 339K in 2017.
> 
> https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/own-dis...01494727&type=&dateb=&owner=include&start=240


If JB only has 300K shares of TSLA when it hits $1000, then he will only be worth $300 million dollars! I wonder if he can retire comfortably on such a small amount?


----------



## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

PNWmisty said:


> you're probably better off well rested and poor!


I really prefer well rested and wealthy!


----------



## victor (Jun 24, 2016)

PNWmisty said:


> If JB only has 300K shares of TSLA when it hits $1000, then he will only be worth $300 million dollars! I wonder if he can retire comfortably on such a small amount?


Well, no early retirement for him then. Will have to work till SP is $3333.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Whatever the case, I hope JB sticks around with Tesla. 

Must be nice being able to trade lottery sized transactions multiple times a year!


----------



## GDN (Oct 30, 2017)

FRC said:


> I really prefer well rested and wealthy!


I would like to say that is what I want, but I want a way to retire in 3 to 5 years vs 8. If I could find that magical way to pad retirement a bit I would at least leave the rat race I live in and find something I prefer like working at a Service Center.


----------



## FF35 (Jul 13, 2018)

I had the same thoughts as Jeremy when I watched some morons from CNBC provide their "professional" opinion on Tesla. Just shook my head at some of the comments but Jeremy went way deeper on the analysis.

If true, the FUD from CNBC makes sense. If not true, they clearly don't do a lot of research. Either way, I now look at the information from CNBC as 'not credible.'


----------



## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

Reasonably balanced article this morning:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/17/gms-race-to-outflank-tesla-may-be-stalling-out.html


----------



## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

and back to the stock price......
recovered from the dip in the last month


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Chanos is showing some major signs of fear that TSLA will continue to rise. Short squeeze time?

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-short-jim-chanos-expects-tsla-rally-sec-filing/amp/


----------

