# How much is your Model 3 worth according to Elon?



## Garlan Garner

It appears that Elon is upping the price of FSD.

Not only that.....Elon is saying that either FSD or the entire car is/will be worth $100k with FSD installed once future updates and improvements are made.

True or not....I know I don't want my insurance going up due to the appreciation value of my car. <----- unchartered territory.


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## Dr. J

Garlan Garner said:


> I know I don't want my insurance going up due to the appreciation value of my car.


I don't think you have anything to worry about in this regard.


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## JasonF

You know that junk mail you get that says "Make $5000 a week from home"? That's what he means. If you have FSD when it becomes fully active, you can theoretically send your car out 24/7 to ferry passengers for a fee, and then maybe you _can_ make $100,000 off of the car. But it's highly doubtful.


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## SoFlaModel3

Elon is essentially suggesting that when FSD is feature complete that people won’t own cars anymore because we’ll live in a world where the Robotaxi fleet covers our needs. 

It’s hard to doubt Elon, but at the same time it’s going to be a while before that’s a possible reality.


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## FRC

SoFlaModel3 said:


> It's hard to doubt Elon, but at the same time it's going to be a while before that's a possible reality.


I find it pretty easy to doubt Elon since he's highly prone to exaggeration. Even the Jetsons still have their personal vehicle!


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## Garlan Garner

FRC said:


> I find it pretty easy to doubt Elon since he's highly prone to exaggeration. Even the Jetsons still have their personal vehicle!


I don't think Elon exaggerates much at all. Really I don't.

I believe his timing is often questionable, however what he proposes and predicts are at least 90% accurate so far.


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## FRC

His timing IS his worst exaggeration. Cross-country self drive this year. Funding secured. I never inhaled. I'll double your money in 3 days. OK, OK, the last two belong to me and some politician. But, continual exaggeration is hard to distinguish from lying. And it's something that Elon(and the rest of us) should strive to avoid at all costs. Remember what happened to the boy who cried wolf?


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## iChris93

FRC said:


> I never inhaled.


People argue Musk didn't either https://futurism.com/elon-musk-interview-joe-rogan


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## NR4P

SoFlaModel3 said:


> Elon is essentially suggesting that when FSD is feature complete that people won't own cars anymore because we'll live in a world where the Robotaxi fleet covers our needs.
> 
> It's hard to doubt Elon, but at the same time it's going to be a while before that's a possible reality.


After my experience a few days ago, I know it will be a while, I think a long while. This might have caused a major problem, about 30 secs in.


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## shareef777

FRC said:


> His timing IS his worst exaggeration. Cross-country self drive this year. Funding secured. I never inhaled. I'll double your money in 3 days. OK, OK, the last two belong to me and some politician. But, continual exaggeration is hard to distinguish from lying. And it's something that Elon(and the rest of us) should strive to avoid at all costs. Remember what happened to the boy who cried wolf?


Exactly, when do we stop calling it exaggeration and start calling it lying? FSD is still YEARS away. Honestly I think it'll be a full decade+ before we get there. The biggest issue is politicians. They simply won't allow vehicles on roads that don't hold people accountable. And if I'm being held accountable for the action of my car, it's not FSD.


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## TrevP

My car isn't worth $100K as I won't be using it in a Robotaxi fleet. If I want to participate in that I'll buy a second car and use that exclusively. FSD could technically handle some situations but were a long way off of it handling everything. Edge cases everywhere and I don't even trust smart summon to use it.


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## Needsdecaf

NR4P said:


> After my experience a few days ago, I know it will be a while, I think a long while. This might have caused a major problem, about 30 secs in.


I ran over a giant piece of debris while on AP. It was low and dark and difficult for even me to see. By the time it emerged from the truck in front for sure there was nothing to be done. But AP did NOTHING to react and ran it straight over.

Ended up totaling the car as it took out the battery.

Be a long time before I trust FSD fully. If ever.


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## Needsdecaf

shareef777 said:


> Exactly, when do we stop calling it exaggeration and start calling it lying? FSD is still YEARS away. Honestly I think it'll be a full decade+ before we get there. The biggest issue is politicians. They simply won't allow vehicles on roads that don't hold people accountable. And if I'm being held accountable for the action of my car, it's not FSD.


100% it's lying. But for some reason, his fans are too attached to allow him to be called on the carpet for it.

Good thing the cars are good in their own right.

My thing is: stop the lying and the BS on this. Why? It's not necessary! The cars ARE good even without FSD. Making these BS claims only hurt the brand, not help it. And undermine his personal credibility, which undermines the Street's faith in Tesla. People will buy the damned cars without FSD. Just be honest with it's progress.


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## Garlan Garner

FRC said:


> His timing IS his worst exaggeration. Cross-country self drive this year. Funding secured. I never inhaled. I'll double your money in 3 days. OK, OK, the last two belong to me and some politician. But, continual exaggeration is hard to distinguish from lying. And it's something that Elon(and the rest of us) should strive to avoid at all costs. Remember what happened to the boy who cried wolf?


I never believe he is lying because the things he says seem to always come true. That eliminates the concept of lying.

Its just the timing of his predictions.

That's no big deal to me. He's an extreme optimist. He sees things others can't even imagine/produce. Hence...Tesla, SpaceX, Boring Company...…etc.


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## SoFlaModel3

Needsdecaf said:


> 100% it's lying. But for some reason, his fans are too attached to allow him to be called on the carpet for it.
> 
> Good thing the cars are good in their own right.
> 
> My thing is: stop the lying and the BS on this. Why? It's not necessary! The cars ARE good even without FSD. Making these BS claims only hurt the brand, not help it. And undermine his personal credibility, which undermines the Street's faith in Tesla. People will buy the damned cars without FSD. Just be honest with it's progress.


I don't think it's lying, but it starts with bad naming and stumbles from there...

For starters "Autopilot", "Enhanced Autopilot", and certainly "Full Self Drive" are the wrong names to use until we are Level 4/5. Now with that said, they always listed what functionality existed today and what was coming later. As for the coming later, I guess that's where the lie vs. no lie comes into question really... I'm sure the timing they set was aggressive and I'm sure it went down something like Elon saying "this is the date" and a team of people saying "we can't hit that date" and the CEO wins (but also loses as a result). I don't think they anticipated needing new hardware and a rewrite. All setbacks. That said, assuming positive intent, I don't think they lied here. Just fell way short of their own lofty expectations. Either way it had the ability to leave a bitter taste in their customers mouths. My thoughts when I bought the car with EAP and subsequently upgraded to FSD -- not to get hung up on the when and just enjoy the ride to level 4/5. As a realist, I have on numerous occasions thought I paid money for features that the next owner would enjoy unless this Model 3 is kept longer than any other car I have owned previously. The catalyst on that will be how well the car holds up after my warranty ends in 8k miles.


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## Garlan Garner

NR4P said:


> After my experience a few days ago, I know it will be a while, I think a long while. This might have caused a major problem, about 30 secs in.


10 years ago.....would you have believed people would now be able to use EAP or AP or FSD or whatever you want to call it - to the tune of millions of miles with fewer accidents attributed to it than human driving?

How long is a long while?


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## iChris93

SoFlaModel3 said:


> I don't think it's lying, but it starts with bad naming and stumbles from there...
> 
> For starters "Autopilot", "Enhanced Autopilot", and certainly "Full Self Drive" are the wrong names to use until we are Level 4/5. Now with that said, they always listed what functionality existed today and what was coming later. As for the coming later, I guess that's where the lie vs. no lie comes into question really... I'm sure the timing they set was aggressive and I'm sure it went down something like Elon saying "this is the date" and a team of people saying "we can't hit that date" and the CEO wins (but also loses as a result). I don't think they anticipated needing new hardware and a rewrite. All setbacks. That said, assuming positive intent, I don't think they lied here. Just fell way short of their own lofty expectations. Either way it had the ability to leave a bitter taste in their customers mouths. My thoughts when I bought the car with EAP and subsequently upgraded to FSD -- not to get hung up on the when and just enjoy the ride to level 4/5. As a realist, I have on numerous occasions thought I paid money for features that the next owner would enjoy unless this Model 3 is kept longer than any other car I have owned previously. The catalyst on that will be how well the car holds up after my warranty ends in 8k miles.


Another issue is the lack of improvement on existing features. They got NoA pretty good, but it still tries to center in the lane with an incoming merge lane. Smart Summon is still not as useful as they sell it as and I am not aware of it improving at all. They're too busy trying to push new feature after new future instead of moving anything out of beta.


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## NR4P

Garlan Garner said:


> 10 years ago.....would you have believed people would now be able to use EAP or AP or FSD or whatever you want to call it - to the tune of millions of miles with fewer accidents attributed to it than human driving?
> 
> How long is a long while?


To answer your first question, since I work in Tech, I envision things and see the evolution of technology often. Frankly I am surprised that by now AP isn't better. For example, it centers in lane and won't budge. An 18 wheel truck goes over the lane divider line and approaches your car, say 6 inches and AP won't move a little bit. Mrs NR4P won't use it. And BSM is a disappointment.

Don't get me wrong, I am considering a Y for the Mrs. but she doesn't want FSD and said don't pay a nickel for AP, take what comes with the car, basic AP. Just give her long range and that's fine.

I applaud Musk for his achievements but he needs to quiet down. His boasting and comments are more of a detraction.


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## Needsdecaf

SoFlaModel3 said:


> I don't think it's lying, but it starts with bad naming and stumbles from there...
> 
> For starters "Autopilot", "Enhanced Autopilot", and certainly "Full Self Drive" are the wrong names to use until we are Level 4/5. Now with that said, they always listed what functionality existed today and what was coming later. As for the coming later, I guess that's where the lie vs. no lie comes into question really... I'm sure the timing they set was aggressive and I'm sure it went down something like Elon saying "this is the date" and a team of people saying "we can't hit that date" and the CEO wins (but also loses as a result). I don't think they anticipated needing new hardware and a rewrite. All setbacks. That said, assuming positive intent, I don't think they lied here. Just fell way short of their own lofty expectations. Either way it had the ability to leave a bitter taste in their customers mouths. My thoughts when I bought the car with EAP and subsequently upgraded to FSD -- not to get hung up on the when and just enjoy the ride to level 4/5. As a realist, I have on numerous occasions thought I paid money for features that the next owner would enjoy unless this Model 3 is kept longer than any other car I have owned previously. The catalyst on that will be how well the car holds up after my warranty ends in 8k miles.


You can look at both sides of this coin. You could look it as simple bad naming, or you can look at it as deliberate misinformation designed to promote adoption and gain massive amounts of data while skirting any regulatory clampdown on what is after all, a beta feature. So...either a bunch of smart people continue to make mistakes, or they're charging ahead deliberately.

Or, it could all be Elon's ego. Which is very likely.



Garlan Garner said:


> 10 years ago.....would you have believed people would now be able to use EAP or AP or FSD or whatever you want to call it - to the tune of millions of miles with fewer accidents attributed to it than human driving?
> 
> How long is a long while?


Yes, absolutely. It's been worked on for years. Decades. Ever hear of the DARPA Grand Challenge? The problem is claims. Do you believe Tesla's numbers? I'm not 100% sure I do. What counts as an accident? I ran over a huge piece of debris on the road and it totaled the car. Yet no airbags deployed, and the car was relatively unscathed at the top and no other vehicles were involved. Did Tesla count that as a "crash"? I have no way of knowing. But it certainly was a crash. I was on AP at the time.

The problem is...the tech exists, it can be done. But under what parameters do you allow it out? Clearly Tesla is in the "close enough, release it" camp judging by my and other's experiences with AutoSteer, Advanced Summon, etc.



iChris93 said:


> Another issue is the lack of improvement on existing features. They got NoA pretty good, but it still tries to center in the lane with an incoming merge lane. Smart Summon is still not as useful as they sell it as and I am not aware of it improving at all. They're too busy trying to push new feature after new future instead of moving anything out of beta.


I will say that HW3 on my new car is much better than 2.5 on my old car as far as speed changes goes. But as far as steering goes, yep, same problems.



NR4P said:


> To answer your first question, since I work in Tech, I envision things and see the evolution of technology often. Frankly I am surprised that by now AP isn't better. For example, it centers in lane and won't budge. An 18 wheel truck goes over the lane divider line and approaches your car, say 6 inches and AP won't move a little bit. Mrs NR4P won't use it. And BSM is a disappointment.
> 
> Don't get me wrong, I am considering a Y for the Mrs. but she doesn't want FSD and said don't pay a nickel for AP, take what comes with the car, basic AP. Just give her long range and that's fine.
> 
> I applaud Musk for his achievements but he needs to quiet down. His boasting and comments are more of a detraction.


Exactly.


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## FRC

The Enhanced Autopilot Pilot(essentially today's autopilot plus auto lane change) was fantastic from the day I bought it. Any FSD features beyond that are, to date, worth almost nothing IMHO. I shelled out only $2k more for FSD after the fact and consider that a gamble I have lost thus far and doubt that FSD will improve enough in time to make that gamble a win. I'm not complaining, the $2K I spent felt like a gamble then and still does. Having said all that, I'll add this; If I hadn't bought FSD, I would be driving myself mad wondering how cool FSD features are. So I guess, NEVERMIND, my sanity and peace of mind are well worth $2K.


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## JasonF

A short time ago, General Motors started touting their own prototype self-driving taxi network. They said it was because the market trends show that in the very near future, most people won't be able to afford new cars, and that even used ones will become too expensive as well. So the only way they could stay in business is to build cars for their own taxi fleet. They also claimed that ride-sharing was _already_ preferred by a lot of people, and that it was _already_ cheaper than owning a car.

So I tested their assertion. I picked someone who is a retail worker I know, and actually makes _more_ than minimum wage, plus has the benefit of living with someone else who pays most of the housing related bills. Their commute to work via Uber would cost about $22 per day _each way_, unless they were unlucky enough to be caught during a surge, like during the holidays. Working 5 days a week makes that $220 per week. _Their_ current car payment is about 2 weeks' worth of Uber. My Tesla car payment is less than the total Ubering for the month as well. Therefore General Motors' assertion is false.

But wait! Research shows that breaking a larger payment into chunks makes people less aware of just how much it costs. So if they sell a "membership" of $200 per week to take you anywhere you want as long as it's within 100 miles of your home, most people won't even realize that comes out to $800 per month. And I wouldn't put it past GM to raise the price of their cars accordingly so their $800/month taxi service is the _cheaper_ option vs purchasing a car. It makes GM even more money when you consider that the customer doesn't stop paying after a few years.

Then you have to ask yourself, what would a car have to be priced at to cost more than $800 a month? That's where the familiar number from Elon Musk's tweets comes into play: The car would be priced at more than $100,000.

The real question now is whether this whole "plan for the future" is going to drastically change now that we have a virus to worry about. The fear from it isn't going to go away once everyone is vaccinated, or even if we reach herd immunity. There will be very strong demand for vehicles that no one else has access to.

A second question is whether Elon Musk will embrace the GM model for continuous income from an autonomous taxi service, or whether he'll recognize that a lot of people who aren't very rich still want a private vehicle, especially after this year.


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## FRC

SoFlaModel3 said:


> "Autopilot", "Enhanced Autopilot", and certainly "Full Self Drive" are the wrong names


I have always considered these feature names misleading, at best, and dangerous at worst. Perhaps better names: Enhanced Cruise Control, Super Enhanced Cruise Control, and Emerging Full Self Drive.


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## Needsdecaf

FRC said:


> The Enhanced Autopilot Pilot(essentially today's autopilot plus auto lane change) was fantastic from the day I bought it. Any FSD features beyond that are, to date, worth almost nothing IMHO. I shelled out only $2k more for FSD after the fact and consider that a gamble I have lost thus far and doubt that FSD will improve enough in time to make that gamble a win. I'm not complaining, the $2K I spent felt like a gamble then and still does. Having said all that, I'll add this; If I hadn't bought FSD, I would be driving myself mad wondering how cool FSD features are. So I guess, NEVERMIND, my sanity and peace of mind are well worth $2K.


EAP is way more than today's basic AP plus auto lane change. It also includes dumb summon, smart summon, self parking and NOA,

Having said that, the only thing I miss is lane change on signal. That's it.


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## FRC

Needsdecaf said:


> dumb summon, smart summon, self parking and NOA


Worthless, worthless, worthless, and occasionally useful. IMHO.


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## bsunny

Needsdecaf said:


> I ran over a giant piece of debris while on AP. <...> By the time it emerged from the truck in front for sure there was nothing to be done. But AP did NOTHING to react and ran it straight over.


If "nothing to be done", then what do you think AP could have done that you could have? Some accidents are unavoidable. Did you expect the car get instantaneous lift to rise above the debris? 🦅 🤔 Or, maybe you think the sensors should have seen the debris in front of the car ahead in time to react? I agree with another poster that the biggest hurdle FSD will have is people (politicians and the public) expecting it to be magically perfect and to avoid any and all accidents. It will be so much better as more vehicles have the technology, but nothing (in my humble vision) will be able to prevent all.


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## Garlan Garner

SoFlaModel3 said:


> I don't think it's lying, but it starts with bad naming and stumbles from there...
> 
> For starters "Autopilot", "Enhanced Autopilot", and certainly "Full Self Drive" are the wrong names to use until we are Level 4/5. Now with that said, they always listed what functionality existed today and what was coming later. As for the coming later, I guess that's where the lie vs. no lie comes into question really... I'm sure the timing they set was aggressive and I'm it went down something like Elon saying "this is the date" and a team of people saying "we can't hit that date" and the CEO wins (but also loses as a result). I don't think they anticipated needing new hardware and a rewrite. All setbacks. That said, assuming positive intent, I don't think they lied here. Just fell way short of their own lofty expectations. Either way it had the ability to leave a bitter taste in their customers mouths. My thoughts when I bought the car with EAP and subsequently upgraded to FSD -- not to get hung up on the when and just enjoy the ride to level 4/5. As a realist, I have on numerous occasions thought I paid money for features that the next owner would enjoy unless this Model 3 is kept longer than any other car I have owned previously. The catalyst on that will be how well the car holds up after my warranty ends in 8k miles.


Good points.

I really feel that if Elon was in charge of all of the projects individually....his dates would be met and therefore match the names of the features.

For example: If Elon did nothing all day but code FSD.....FSD could possibly be done by now. He has proven that with many other projects he speaks about in various podcasts. He single handidly came up with a new way to display earth maps on a screen in his spare time. While at the same time folks at garmin were struggling to make it happen.

Sometimes I believe Elon makes predictions based on if he was going to be doing the work alone. He works like a machine, however not every does or can. He indicated on Joe Rogan that not everyone is willing to sleep at work for a month straight to get things done. He could probably make his dates if there were about 100 of himself.


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## Bigriver

Needsdecaf said:


> I will say that HW3 on my new car is much better than 2.5 on my old car as far as speed changes goes. But as far as steering goes, yep, same problems.


I find HW3 to be miles ahead of HW2.5, also in the steering. Especially pronounced on my model X, which just got the HW2.5 to HW3 upgrade last week. Same firmware version, but lane control and smoothness through curves is revolutionary. Just how I had dreamed autopilot would be. But I also have to note that the X always had bigger AP issues than what I had on the 3, when they were both HW2.5.



Needsdecaf said:


> Having said that, the only thing I miss is lane change on signal. That's it.


Totally agree. That's really the only current feature of FSD that is important to me. I really would have been happy to stay with EAP only. But glad I went the FSD route because the included HW3 update future proofed the car (for awhile). I'm not sure if I would get FSD if I were to buy a new Tesla now.


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## FRC

If he had any common sense, he would cease publicly stating the timeline of internal goals.


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## Garlan Garner

NR4P said:


> To answer your first question, since I work in Tech, I envision things and see the evolution of technology often. Frankly I am surprised that by now AP isn't better. For example, it centers in lane and won't budge. An 18 wheel truck goes over the lane divider line and approaches your car, say 6 inches and AP won't move a little bit. Mrs NR4P won't use it. And BSM is a disappointment.
> 
> Don't get me wrong, I am considering a Y for the Mrs. but she doesn't want FSD and said don't pay a nickel for AP, take what comes with the car, basic AP. Just give her long range and that's fine.
> 
> I applaud Musk for his achievements but he needs to quiet down. His boasting and comments are more of a detraction.


I'm on the other side of the fence.

I think AP is phenomenal in what it actually does. It does center the lane and doesn't budge...unlike what many humans should be doing.
I believe the rare occasion that the car shouldn't center the lane is your concern....and its a valid one.

Its still beta and I accept that.


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## SoCalWine

Anyone else worried that stop sign/traffic light is actually more based on maps than visual queues?


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## Garlan Garner

Needsdecaf said:


> You can look at both sides of this coin. You could look it as simple bad naming, or you can look at it as deliberate misinformation designed to promote adoption and gain massive amounts of data while skirting any regulatory clampdown on what is after all, a beta feature. So...either a bunch of smart people continue to make mistakes, or they're charging ahead deliberately.
> 
> Or, it could all be Elon's ego. Which is very likely.
> 
> Yes, absolutely. It's been worked on for years. Decades. Ever hear of the DARPA Grand Challenge? The problem is claims. Do you believe Tesla's numbers? I'm not 100% sure I do. What counts as an accident? I ran over a huge piece of debris on the road and it totaled the car. Yet no airbags deployed, and the car was relatively unscathed at the top and no other vehicles were involved. Did Tesla count that as a "crash"? I have no way of knowing. But it certainly was a crash. I was on AP at the time.
> 
> The problem is...the tech exists, it can be done. But under what parameters do you allow it out? Clearly Tesla is in the "close enough, release it" camp judging by my and other's experiences with AutoSteer, Advanced Summon, etc.
> 
> I will say that HW3 on my new car is much better than 2.5 on my old car as far as speed changes goes. But as far as steering goes, yep, same problems.
> 
> Exactly.


I don't know what Tesla's numbers are. I'm going by FHA numbers. ( Federal Highway Administration).

They post the same numbers when comparing Tesla to Non-Tesla accidents.


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## Garlan Garner

SoCalWine said:


> Anyone else worried that stop sign/traffic light is actually more based on maps than visual queues?


I'm not. Because when I use it....stops at lights in a way that it has to be using the environment.

I tested it at a street light / road that was changed the day before. It reacted differently.


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## Garlan Garner

JasonF said:


> A short time ago, General Motors started touting their own prototype self-driving taxi network. They said it was because the market trends show that in the very near future, most people won't be able to afford new cars, and that even used ones will become too expensive as well. So the only way they could stay in business is to build cars for their own taxi fleet. They also claimed that ride-sharing was _already_ preferred by a lot of people, and that it was _already_ cheaper than owning a car.
> 
> So I tested their assertion. I picked someone who is a retail worker I know, and actually makes _more_ than minimum wage, plus has the benefit of living with someone else who pays most of the housing related bills. Their commute to work via Uber would cost about $22 per day _each way_, unless they were unlucky enough to be caught during a surge, like during the holidays. Working 5 days a week makes that $220 per week. _Their_ current car payment is about 2 weeks' worth of Uber. My Tesla car payment is less than the total Ubering for the month as well. Therefore General Motors' assertion is false.
> 
> But wait! Research shows that breaking a larger payment into chunks makes people less aware of just how much it costs. So if they sell a "membership" of $200 per week to take you anywhere you want as long as it's within 100 miles of your home, most people won't even realize that comes out to $800 per month. And I wouldn't put it past GM to raise the price of their cars accordingly so their $800/month taxi service is the _cheaper_ option vs purchasing a car. It makes GM even more money when you consider that the customer doesn't stop paying after a few years.
> 
> Then you have to ask yourself, what would a car have to be priced at to cost more than $800 a month? That's where the familiar number from Elon Musk's tweets comes into play: The car would be priced at more than $100,000.
> 
> The real question now is whether this whole "plan for the future" is going to drastically change now that we have a virus to worry about. The fear from it isn't going to go away once everyone is vaccinated, or even if we reach herd immunity. There will be very strong demand for vehicles that no one else has access to.
> 
> A second question is whether Elon Musk will embrace the GM model for continuous income from an autonomous taxi service, or whether he'll recognize that a lot of people who aren't very rich still want a private vehicle, especially after this year.


I don't believe the whole $100,000 calculation was about the fleet.


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## Needsdecaf

FRC said:


> Worthless, worthless, worthless, and occasionally useful. IMHO.


Haha, I used dumb summon quite often. I felt it was useful for applying tire dressing, making small adjustments in the garage, etc. Agree on smark summon and auto park. NOA I found to be not only worthless, but frustrating.


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## Needsdecaf

Garlan Garner said:


> I don't know what Tesla's numbers are. I'm going by FHA numbers. ( Federal Highway Administration).
> 
> They post the same numbers when comparing Tesla to Non-Tesla accidents.


Gotcha.

I was referring to Tesla's quarterly claims about accidents while on AP vs. not on AP.



Garlan Garner said:


> I don't believe the whole $100,000 calculation was about the fleet.


The "your car will appreciate" or "your car will be worth $100k" thing is where Elon goes from "exaggerating / missed target dates" to outright lying. Your car is not an appreciating asset. Period. Can you earn money with it? Sure if you drive for Uber or rent it on Turo. The problem is to have these cars at a point where it can function as a "Robotaxi" is beyond the useful life of all the current Tesla fleet. Robotax requires Level 5 autonomy. That isn't happening anytime soon.


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## GDN

Elon's lofty statements and goals and claming the cars are worth $100K is a load of BS. They might be to Elon because he plans on having a fleet of them when lease cars start coming back in. I don't think most of us will want to put our daily drivers in the program - or maybe I'm wrong about that. 

Either way at $8K, the sales of FSD will slow way down. That is definitely beyond my threshold for what it delivers today and likely what it would delivery tomorrow (or in 10 years before it truly would ever be allowed on the road in for autonomous mode by regulators!)

Elon needs to have his Twitter removed and go run the company and deliver big news twice a year. Bottom line is that it will be years before FSD is release without a driver in the seat.


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## Garlan Garner

Needsdecaf said:


> Gotcha.
> 
> I was referring to Tesla's quarterly claims about accidents while on AP vs. not on AP.
> 
> The "your car will appreciate" or "your car will be worth $100k" thing is where Elon goes from "exaggerating / missed target dates" to outright lying. Your car is not an appreciating asset. Period. Can you earn money with it? Sure if you drive for Uber or rent it on Turo. The problem is to have these cars at a point where it can function as a "Robotaxi" is beyond the useful life of all the current Tesla fleet. Robotax requires Level 5 autonomy. That isn't happening anytime soon.


Well, the only thing I can say is that I was in an accident last year....and they wanted to total my car.....until I reminded them of what AP ( software ) cost. <----that can't be separated from the car.

Because of that....my car wasn't totaled. The value of the software kept my car from being totaled. After July 1'st if I'm in an accident again.....I can say that the software I have is worth $1000 more than last year.

Normal ICE cars don't appreciate, however they also don't have software that gets better with more features as time moves forward. If people place value on a feature....then indeed it makes the car more valuable.

Certain individuals might not value the software right now.....I get it.....but that's besides the point that the software is making the car more expensive....therefore more valuable concerning sales.

If my car depreciates $1000 this year...however has acquired software that now sells for $2500 more....then it appreciated. I know this is unprecedented in the "normal" way the value of cars is determined, but here we are.

I would be real careful of accusing someone of lying in a case like this.


----------



## gary in NY

Needsdecaf said:


> Haha, I used dumb summon quite often. I felt it was useful for applying tire dressing, making small adjustments in the garage, etc. Agree on smark summon and auto park. NOA I found to be not only worthless, but frustrating.


I have to agree about dumb summon. I don't like to get into the car with dirty work clothes, which is almost a daily thing. So if I need to move the car out of the way, dumb summon to to rescue. I use it almost daily, sometimes multiple times. (Doing my part to keep up appearances by keeping the car clean)

I've never used auto park, smart summon ain't, NOA is ok, but I don't use it much.


----------



## iChris93

Needsdecaf said:


> NOA I found to be not only worthless, but frustrating.


When was the last time you used it? I used it this weekend on HW3 and it was very impressive.


----------



## Garlan Garner

gary in NY said:


> I have to agree about dumb summon. I don't like to get into the car with dirty work clothes, which is almost a daily thing. So if I need to move the car out of the way, dumb summon to to rescue. I use it almost daily, sometimes multiple times. (Doing my part to keep up appearances by keeping the car clean)
> 
> I've never used auto park, smart summon ain't, NOA is ok, but I don't use it much.


I use NOA more than anything else.

I have 62k miles on my car and I feel safe in saying that 60k of it is NOA. I'm all highway driving.

Hmmmm......I really wish Tesla could make a car that only had the features that each individual wants so that they don't have to criticize the features that other people want.

BTW......I have never used auto park. <------ should I criticize it? Absolutely not.


----------



## gary in NY

Needsdecaf said:


> I ran over a giant piece of debris while on AP. It was low and dark and difficult for even me to see. By the time it emerged from the truck in front for sure there was nothing to be done. But AP did NOTHING to react and ran it straight over.
> 
> Ended up totaling the car as it took out the battery.
> 
> Be a long time before I trust FSD fully. If ever.


I see your point, but wouldn't you agree there are going to be cases where there is no time to react, either by a human or machine? Musk has said that there will never be a 100% perfect solution, but I think lowing the aggregate collision incident rate is the greater goal.


----------



## FRC

My car will not be worth $100,000 until the day arrives that it can be sold for $100,000. I do not believe that day will ever arrive, but, since it is in the future, I can't possibly say that the statement is definitively untrue. The strongest statement I can positively make is that it is my strong opinion that Elon's statement that my car will someday be worth $100K is not true, i.e., a lie


----------



## gary in NY

Garlan Garner said:


> I use NOA more than anything else.
> 
> I have 62k miles on my car and I feel safe in saying that 60k of it is NOA. I'm all highway driving.
> 
> Hmmmm......I really wish Tesla could make a car that only had the features that each individual wants so that they don't have to criticize the features that other people want.
> 
> BTW......I have never used auto park. <------ should I criticize it?


I'm just not in a position to use NOA often, particularly these days. I've tried it locally, and on my narrow windy road, and the car drives in an unsafe manner, either too fast or too slow, crossing the center line and sometimes the fog line.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Garlan Garner said:


> I don't believe the whole $100,000 calculation was about the fleet.





bsunny said:


> If "nothing to be done", then what do you think AP could have done that you could have? Some accidents are unavoidable. Did you expect the car get instantaneous lift to rise above the debris? 🦅 🤔 Or, maybe you think the sensors should have seen the debris in front of the car ahead in time to react? I agree with another poster that the biggest hurdle FSD will have is people (politicians and the public) expecting it to be magically perfect and to avoid any and all accidents. It will be so much better as more vehicles have the technology, but nothing (in my humble vision) will be able to prevent all.


No, I'm making the same point you are from the opposite direction. People think that FSD / AP is this magical system and keep touting statistics that it's safer than humans driving. And that we should be in this mad rush to adopt this technology as fast as possible, even faster then is logical, in order to save us humans from our frail selves, because the numbers show that it reduces accidents. My point is that these systems are not as wonderous as people make them out to be.


----------



## Garlan Garner

gary in NY said:


> I'm just not in a position to use NOA often, particularly these days. I've tried it locally, and on my narrow windy road, and the car drives in an unsafe manner, either too fast or too slow, crossing the center line and sometimes the fog line.


Understood.

Again....this is beta software and if we all follow the instructions provided by Tesla there will not "currently" be unmonitored AP driving. I believe it should go without being said that if you find using ANY feature of a car that you aren't comfortable with.....don't use it.


----------



## gary in NY

And to the greater question, is the car with FSD worth $100k? I really don't think so, even if it was working as a robo-taxi. In my area, the car would have to travel long distances to stay occupied and earn at the claimed annual rate. And do I want my personal car to be subject to the behavior of riders (ware and tear, abuse, pukers)? I think not, but maybe a second car dedicated to the purpose. Earning at the advertised fare rate of just pennies per mile, after Tesla takes their cut, then cleaning, maintenance, repairs, insurance, power, etc., how much does one net? I would hope it is on par with Uber/Lyft, but we don't know.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Needsdecaf said:


> No, I'm making the same point you are from the opposite direction. People think that FSD / AP is this magical system and keep touting statistics that it's safer than humans driving. And that we should be in this mad rush to adopt this technology as fast as possible, even faster then is logical, in order to save us humans from our frail selves, because the numbers show that it reduces accidents. My point is that these systems are not as wonderous as people make them out to be.


I'm not sure what people think...so I'm going to stay away from that speculation. What I do believe are the numbers that the USFHA put out.

They state that by far......Teslas accidents per miles driven on NOA are far below the norm.

As I've stated many times. FSD and AP is still officially beta.

What astounds me is that a beta version of anything exceeds the norm in automotive safety. As catastrophic as some state NOA or AP is .... it still surpasses the results of safety concerning normal human driving according to the USFHA.


----------



## Garlan Garner

gary in NY said:


> And to the greater question, is the car with FSD worth $100k? I really don't think so, even if it was working as a robo-taxi. In my area, the car would have to travel long distances to stay occupied and earn at the claimed annual rate. And do I want my personal car to be subject to the behavior of riders (ware and tear, abuse, pukers)? I think not, but maybe a second car dedicated to the purpose. Earning at the advertised fare rate of just pennies per mile, after Tesla takes their cut, then cleaning, maintenance, repairs, insurance, power, etc., how much does one net? I would hope it is on par with Uber/Lyft, but we don't know.


Let me quote Elon exactlly in his tweet.

_The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self driving with regulatory approval. It that point, the value of FSD is probably somewhere in excess of $100,000. _

I believe Elon meant "At that point, the value of...…"

My point is - he didn't indicate that the value of FSD is $100k "right now".


----------



## Needsdecaf

iChris93 said:


> When was the last time you used it? I used it this weekend on HW3 and it was very impressive.


I last used it sometime in late Feb or early March on my old car, which was HW 2.5. It was not at all impressive.



Garlan Garner said:


> I use NOA more than anything else.
> 
> I have 62k miles on my car and I feel safe in saying that 60k of it is NOA. I'm all highway driving.
> 
> Hmmmm......I really wish Tesla could make a car that only had the features that each individual wants so that they don't have to criticize the features that other people want.
> 
> BTW......I have never used auto park. <------ should I criticize it? Absolutely not.


I'm not criticizing features because I don't want them. I'm criticizing it because it doesn't work well in my many miles of trying it. I do about 3k per month and I'm up to just under 40k miles total on my two Model 3's. 
Maybe it works better for you than me. But I've driven all over Houston and Dallas using NOA and note the following issues among others:

Very late or non-existent lane change suggestions when approaching slower traffic. 
Very inconsistent lane changes when moving into a passing lane with overtaking vehicles. Sometimes it's banzai and cut the guy off enough to get the finger thrown. other times there's no car behind me for 1/4 mile and the car just sits there and won't change lanes.
Slows down for ramp several hundred yards before exit point, placing me going 10 MPH slower than posted limit, 20 MPH slower than flow of traffic while still in the travel lane. 
Takes wide open, large radius ramps extremely slowly when going from one highway to the next.
Has difficulty navigating tighter exit ramps smoothly
Sometimes quits in the middle of navigating a highway-highway exit ramp.

I could go on.

Maybe NOA works where traffic is lighter? Or there are fewer travel lanes? I'm not sure. But what I do know is that a very cool feature, that has the potential to further de-stress my commute, has made me way more stressed worrying about it.

Every new software update, I'd give it a few days of trial to see if it had improved and always end up turning it back off in less than a week.

To reiterate, I want it to work. I'd buy NOA again with hopes that it would improve to the point to where it made my commute easier. But it never did and was more a frustration than anything else.


----------



## FRC

Garlan Garner said:


> Let me quote Elon exactlly in his tweet.
> 
> _The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self driving with regulatory approval. It that point, the value of FSD is probably somewhere in excess of $100,000. _
> 
> I believe Elon meant "At that point, the value of...…"
> 
> My point is - he didn't indicate that the value of FSD is $100k "right now".


Allowing for the rising cost of living, the longer FSD takes to fully develop, the more likely his statement could be true.


----------



## Garlan Garner

I just believe exactly what Elon stated in that:

The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self driving with regulatory approval. At that point, the value of FSD is probably somewhere in excess of $100,000.

Until FSD is complete....I'm going to use some features and others I'm not going to use at all. Its my choice.

I have also chosen to follow the advice of another great individual of our times concerning things like this: Aaron Rogers lol


----------



## Garlan Garner

Needsdecaf said:


> I last used it sometime in late Feb or early March on my old car, which was HW 2.5. It was not at all impressive.
> 
> I'm not criticizing features because I don't want them. I'm criticizing it because it doesn't work well in my many miles of trying it. I do about 3k per month and I'm up to just under 40k miles total on my two Model 3's.
> Maybe it works better for you than me. But I've driven all over Houston and Dallas using NOA and note the following issues among others:
> 
> Very late or non-existent lane change suggestions when approaching slower traffic.
> Very inconsistent lane changes when moving into a passing lane with overtaking vehicles. Sometimes it's banzai and cut the guy off enough to get the finger thrown. other times there's no car behind me for 1/4 mile and the car just sits there and won't change lanes.
> Slows down for ramp several hundred yards before exit point, placing me going 10 MPH slower than posted limit, 20 MPH slower than flow of traffic while still in the travel lane.
> Takes wide open, large radius ramps extremely slowly when going from one highway to the next.
> Has difficulty navigating tighter exit ramps smoothly
> Sometimes quits in the middle of navigating a highway-highway exit ramp.
> 
> I could go on.
> 
> Maybe NOA works where traffic is lighter? Or there are fewer travel lanes? I'm not sure. But what I do know is that a very cool feature, that has the potential to further de-stress my commute, has made me way more stressed worrying about it.
> 
> Every new software update, I'd give it a few days of trial to see if it had improved and always end up turning it back off in less than a week.


All I can say is that if I thought it would do any good.....I would lobby for you to get your money back for FSD.

I really don't like seeing people unhappy.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Garlan Garner said:


> 10 years ago.....would you have believed people would now be able to use EAP or AP or FSD or whatever you want to call it - to the tune of millions of miles with fewer accidents attributed to it than human driving?
> 
> How long is a long while?


Where are these numbers?



Garlan Garner said:


> I don't know what Tesla's numbers are. I'm going by FHA numbers. ( Federal Highway Administration).
> 
> They post the same numbers when comparing Tesla to Non-Tesla accidents.


OK, that has nothing to do with using AP or not. That's just Tesla vs. non-Tesla numbers.



Garlan Garner said:


> I'm not sure what people think...so I'm going to stay away from that speculation. What I do believe are the numbers that the USFHA put out.
> 
> They state that by far......Teslas accidents per miles driven on NOA are far below the norm.
> 
> As I've stated many times. FSD and AP is still officially beta.
> 
> What astounds me is that a beta version of anything exceeds the norm in automotive safety. As catastrophic as some state NOA or AP is .... it still surpasses the results of safety concerning normal human driving according to the USFHA.


FHA does not, to my knowledge, have any way of knowing how many miles driven by Tesla are on AP vs. normal driving. You're conflating that data with Data that Tesla has said that accidents per mile traveled are lower on AP than not. That's not the same as FHA (by the way isn't it NHTSA, not FHA?) that Teslas have a lower crash rate than other vehicles.

I could be wrong. But I'm pretty sure that only Tesla has that data, and has not released it. So you're taking their word.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Garlan Garner said:


> All I can say is that if I thought it would do any good.....I would lobby for you to get your money back for FSD.
> 
> I really don't like seeing people unhappy.


I didn't pay for FSD. I paid for EAP on my last car. And would happily pay for it again, at the same price. Warts and all.


----------



## shareef777

Needsdecaf said:


> I last used it sometime in late Feb or early March on my old car, which was HW 2.5. It was not at all impressive.
> 
> I'm not criticizing features because I don't want them. I'm criticizing it because it doesn't work well in my many miles of trying it. I do about 3k per month and I'm up to just under 40k miles total on my two Model 3's.
> Maybe it works better for you than me. But I've driven all over Houston and Dallas using NOA and note the following issues among others:
> 
> Very late or non-existent lane change suggestions when approaching slower traffic.
> Very inconsistent lane changes when moving into a passing lane with overtaking vehicles. Sometimes it's banzai and cut the guy off enough to get the finger thrown. other times there's no car behind me for 1/4 mile and the car just sits there and won't change lanes.
> Slows down for ramp several hundred yards before exit point, placing me going 10 MPH slower than posted limit, 20 MPH slower than flow of traffic while still in the travel lane.
> Takes wide open, large radius ramps extremely slowly when going from one highway to the next.
> Has difficulty navigating tighter exit ramps smoothly
> Sometimes quits in the middle of navigating a highway-highway exit ramp.
> 
> I could go on.
> 
> Maybe NOA works where traffic is lighter? Or there are fewer travel lanes? I'm not sure. But what I do know is that a very cool feature, that has the potential to further de-stress my commute, has made me way more stressed worrying about it.
> 
> Every new software update, I'd give it a few days of trial to see if it had improved and always end up turning it back off in less than a week.
> 
> To reiterate, I want it to work. I'd buy NOA again with hopes that it would improve to the point to where it made my commute easier. But it never did and was more a frustration than anything else.


Agreed. The ONLY situation where NoA works flawlessly for me is when it's staying in its own lane (ie, adaptive cruise control). Lane changes are NOT fluid or logical, neither is entering/exiting a highway.


----------



## Garlan Garner

shareef777 said:


> Agreed. The ONLY situation where NoA works flawlessly for me is when it's staying in its own lane (ie, adaptive cruise control). Lane changes are NOT fluid or logical, neither is entering/exiting a highway.


I had to find out why my lane changes were occurring.

Then I found someone at the Service Center that explained to me a lot of the reasoning.

Example: In Illinois.... on a 3 land highway its illegal to pass on the right for the sake of passing. Now...no one EVER gets a ticket for that - however its illegal. I live about 1 mile from the Indiana border and when I'm on the expressway traveling from Illinois to Indiana the car suddenly passes on the right. Why? I was told that the car obeys the laws of the state that its in and that as laws change....the car receives those changes.

I was also reminded that many lane markers here in Illinois are marked illegally. There doesn't seem to be anyone to report illegal lane markings to "that will actually do something about it". This usually happens with entrance and exit markings.

Sometimes my car moves over to center itself between lines when an entrance/exit lane occurs. Then other times it doesn't. I found out that there are supposed to be small lane divider lines that keep a lane from enlarging during exits/entrances. When they fail to paint those small divider lines...is it illegal? Yes. Will the change it? No.

It would be nice if Tesla released some basic "What is the car thinking" notes from time to time.....then when I think about it.....that would attract......well you know what kind of comments.


----------



## Garlan Garner

FRC said:


> If he had any common sense, he would cease publicly stating the timeline of internal goals.


I don't mind his timeline. I understand it.....he's optimistic, so I'm able to like it.

I really don't mind at all if he tells me that the car will recognize potholes and avoid them "next week". If its not here next week.....then fine with me...I know what he/Tesla is thinking. Not a problem.

I have never required that people be perfect..... Once I understand them...then ok..... "be u".


----------



## Garlan Garner

Speaking of timelines: This is Gigafactory Today. 6 weeks ago....it was still full of trees and bats. 14 months from now cars will be rolling out of there. Same as the China gigafactory. Ahead of schedule. Astounding.


----------



## shareef777

Garlan Garner said:


> I had to find out why my lane changes were occurring.
> 
> Then I found someone at the Service Center that explained to me a lot of the reasoning.
> 
> Example: In Illinois.... on a 3 land highway its illegal to pass on the right for the sake of passing. Now...no one EVER gets a ticket for that - however its illegal. I live about 1 mile from the Indiana border and when I'm on the expressway traveling from Illinois to Indiana the car suddenly passes on the right. Why? I was told that the car obeys the laws of the state that its in and that as laws change....the car receives those changes.
> 
> I was also reminded that many lane markers here in Illinois are marked illegally. There doesn't seem to be anyone to report illegal lane markings to "that will actually do something about it". This usually happens with entrance and exit markings.
> 
> Sometimes my car moves over to center itself between lines when an entrance/exit lane occurs. Then other times it doesn't. I found out that there are supposed to be small lane divider lines that keep a lane from enlarging during exits/entrances. When they fail to paint those small divider lines...is it illegal? Yes. Will the change it? No.
> 
> It would be nice if Tesla released some basic "What is the car thinking" notes from time to time.....then when I think about it.....that would attract......well you know what kind of comments.


I understand the logic, but I've had my 3 stay in the left lane and not go into the right lane when the right lane is completely empty. So this wouldn't be considered passing on the right, but just getting out from behind a slower moving vehicle. I suppose more time/testing will get these kinks worked out.


----------



## iChris93

shareef777 said:


> I understand the logic, but I've had my 3 stay in the left lane and not go into the right lane when the right lane is completely empty. So this wouldn't be considered passing on the right, but just getting out from behind a slower moving vehicle. I suppose more time/testing will get these kinks worked out.


Question: was this on HW2.5 or HW3? They definitely screwed up the code in HW2.5 before I got upgraded to HW3 so it stayed in the left lane. Not sure if they have fixed this since March in HW2.5.


----------



## GDN

Garlan Garner said:


> BTW......I have never used auto park. <------ should I criticize it? Absolutely not.


Feel free to go ahead - it is almost worthless. The biggest problem is it doesn't identify a good parking spot until you are half way parked. It will take over from there and do a decent job, but why bother at that point. We had a 2013 (or 14 don't recall) Ford Fusion that was perfect at parallel parking. It was fun to demonstrate, especially 7 years ago. While the 3 can get parked once in a while, it is the last thing I would ever demo to anyone.


----------



## iChris93

GDN said:


> The biggest problem is it doesn't identify a good parking spot until you are half way parked.


Followed by the second biggest problem of being too slow.


----------



## gary in NY

Garlan Garner said:


> Let me quote Elon exactlly in his tweet.
> 
> _The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self driving with regulatory approval. It that point, the value of FSD is probably somewhere in excess of $100,000. _
> 
> I believe Elon meant "At that point, the value of...…"
> 
> My point is - he didn't indicate that the value of FSD is $100k "right now".


Yes, I got that. But if it were Level 5 today, I don't think it would be salable for anywhere near $100K. Not all of us would be able to afford FSD at prices too much in excess of where they are now, especially if we have no intention of putting the car out for hire. It would then make more sense for Tesla to manufacture and self manage cars only for its robo-taxi fleet and not the general public, which is something Musk has mentioned.

I optimistically bought FSD for the advertised features not the income or resale potential. And I still have that optimism. If it turns out that one day my car has a resale value significantly greater than the amount I paid for it due to FSD, I'll be extremely happy. I might even be happier though when FSD become a reality.


----------



## gary in NY

GDN said:


> Feel free to go ahead - it is almost worthless. The biggest problem is it doesn't identify a good parking spot until you are half way parked. It will take over from there and do a decent job, but why bother at that point. We had a 2013 (or 14 don't recall) Ford Fusion that was perfect at parallel parking. It was fun to demonstrate, especially 7 years ago. While the 3 can get parked once in a while, it is the last thing I would ever demo to anyone.


Several years ago, I saw a Toyota make a parking maneuver while backing into a spot that no human could have possibly made. It was quick and the results were absolutely perfect.


----------



## Garlan Garner

shareef777 said:


> I understand the logic, but I've had my 3 stay in the left lane and not go into the right lane when the right lane is completely empty. So this wouldn't be considered passing on the right, but just getting out from behind a slower moving vehicle. I suppose more time/testing will get these kinks worked out.


I had the same thing happen to me and then I called Tesla Support and they told me that in 48 states....its illegal to drive in the entrance/exit lane in cities, however on interstates its the opposite.

Sure enough, its true. I actually looked it up.

Who knew?


----------



## Garlan Garner

gary in NY said:


> Yes, I got that. But if it were Level 5 today, I don't think it would be salable for anywhere near $100K. Not all of us would be able to afford FSD at prices too much in excess of where they are now, especially if we have no intention of putting the car out for hire. It would then make more sense for Tesla to manufacture and self manage cars only for its robo-taxi fleet and not the general public, which is something Musk has mentioned.
> 
> I optimistically bought FSD for the advertised features not the income or resale potential. And I still have that optimism. If it turns out that one day my car has a resale value significantly greater than the amount I paid for it due to FSD, I'll be extremely happy. I might even be happier though when FSD become a reality.


I understand....that's why it doesn't cost $100k "today".

FSD IS STILL BETA. Its a while away from being complete. Elon states that. Tesla states that. We all state that.

Why is everyone still commenting as though its feature complete?


----------



## FRC

Garlan Garner said:


> Why is everyone still commenting as though its feature complete?


Simply because it was promised as much closer to feature complete than it is now years ago. Age old business adage...under promise and over deliver.


----------



## Garlan Garner

FRC said:


> Simply because it was promised as much closer to feature complete than it is now years ago. Age old business adage...under promise and over deliver.


I would suggest that we all go with what we know about FSD and its completeness.

As Elon stated....there is regulatory and other issues outside of programing and Tesla's area that has to be contended with. Much like the inability to sell Tesla's in Texas.....did Tesla know that was going to be a thing? From their response to Texas and other states who acted like Texas is acting right now.....I would say no.

Did they know about regulatory and other non-mentioned hurdles when the promises were made? I don't know.....doesn't matter to me right now.

How about we go with what we know about FSD and help it move forward in any way that we can. Tesla says that data is ALWAYS a good thing. Lets give them some by using the features we have.


----------



## Garlan Garner

gary in NY said:


> Several years ago, I saw a Toyota make a parking maneuver while backing into a spot that no human could have possibly made. It was quick and the results were absolutely perfect.


With that said......I would suggest that Toyotas are in a lot of peoples future.

Wait....don't they use Lidar?

I guess parking is fantastic, however they will never have autopilot available in the rain or snow or anything other than perfect days because Lidar is blind in almost any condition other than a perfect day.

I'm quite sure the parking maneuver was NOT in the rain...or snow.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Garlan Garner said:


> I would suggest that we all go with what we know about FSD and its completeness.
> 
> As Elon stated....there is regulatory and other issues outside of programing and Tesla's area that has to be contended with. Much like the inability to sell Tesla's in Texas.....did Tesla know that was going to be a thing? From their response to Tesla and other states who acted like Texas is acting right now.....I would say no.
> 
> Did they know about regulatory and other non-mentioned hurdles when the promises were made? I don't know.....doesn't matter to me right now.
> 
> How about we go with what we know about FSD and help it move forward in any way that we can. Tesla says that data is ALWAYS a good thing. Lets give them some by using the features we have.


You're very generous. IMO, you shouldn't be. Tesla absolutely knew the regulatory landscape when they went down this path. 100%. If they didn't, shame on them for it's there for all to see.

but the problem Isn't regulatory. It's technical. Tesla is not anywhere close to level 4 or level 5 autonomy any time soon. And the industry knows it. Every time Elon makes a promise with a date that's invariably broken, he loses credibility with the street, with investors at large, and especially with the industry as a whole. That does nothing but set the company back. And by proxy, the EV movement as a whole. Can you imagine how much more market share Tesla would have if so many people didn't think Elon was a con man and Tesla was a pyramid scheme?

Most folks are not so generous. Most folks aren't going to shell out nearly 20% of the value of the car for a feature set where most of the features have clear issues. And some features are missing altogether, with a nebulous and constantly moving completion date. That hurts overall sales.

what Tesla has done is amazing. But they have to take the next step. The Y will help. But will it be enough?


----------



## Garlan Garner

Needsdecaf said:


> You're very generous. IMO, you shouldn't be. Tesla absolutely knew the regulatory landscape when they went down this path. 100%. If they didn't, shame on them for it's there for all to see.
> 
> but the problem Isn't regulatory. It's technical. Tesla is not anywhere close to level 4 or level 5 autonomy any time soon. And the industry knows it. Every time Elon makes a promise with a date that's invariably broken, he loses credibility with the street, with investors at large, and especially with the industry as a whole. That does nothing but set the company back. And by proxy, the EV movement as a whole. Can you imagine how much more market share Tesla would have if so many people didn't think Elon was a con man and Tesla was a pyramid scheme?
> 
> Most folks are not so generous. Most folks aren't going to shell out nearly 20% of the value of the car for a feature set where most of the features have clear issues. And some features are missing altogether, with a nebulous and constantly moving completion date. That hurts overall sales.
> 
> what Tesla has done is amazing. But they have to take the next step. The Y will help. But will it be enough?


Ok...I see that we see things differently and that's fine. I don't compare Tesla to Tesla.

I'm ok with the $800 stock price. vs where every other car company is.
I'm ok with the profits in the last 2 quarters vs where every other car company is.
I'm ok with Tesla outselling almost all other cars in its class combinded. vs where every other car company is. 
I'k ok with Tesla actually having the need to build factories vs where every other car company is.
I'm ok with Tesla creating additional models vs other car companies eliminating models.

Teslas Non feature complete FSD vs. what every other car company offers? I'll take Tesla's version.

I'll take it. I bought in at $285....I'll take it vs. every other car company.

Is Tesla perfect? Lets all say it together....."NO". But I'll take it vs where all other car companies are.


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## FRC

Garlan Garner said:


> Ok...I see that we see things differently and that's fine. I don't compare Tesla to Tesla.
> 
> I'm ok with the $800 stock price. vs where every other car company is.
> I'm ok with the profits in the last 2 quarters vs where every other car company is.
> I'm ok with Tesla outselling almost all other cars in its class combinded. vs where every other car company is.
> I'k ok with Tesla actually having the need to build factories vs where every other car company is.
> I'm ok with Tesla creating additional models vs other car companies eliminating models.
> 
> Teslas Non feature complete FSD vs. what every other car company offers? I'll take Tesla's version.
> 
> I'll take it. I bought in at $285....I'll take it vs. every other car company.
> 
> Is Tesla perfect? Lets all say it together....."NO". But I'll take it vs where all other car companies are.


I'm OK with being lied to? Absurd.


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## shareef777

Garlan Garner said:


> Ok...I see that we see things differently and that's fine. I don't compare Tesla to Tesla.
> 
> I'm ok with the $800 stock price. vs where every other car company is.
> I'm ok with the profits in the last 2 quarters vs where every other car company is.
> I'm ok with Tesla outselling almost all other cars in its class combinded. vs where every other car company is.
> I'k ok with Tesla actually having the need to build factories vs where every other car company is.
> I'm ok with Tesla creating additional models vs other car companies eliminating models.
> 
> Teslas Non feature complete FSD vs. what every other car company offers? I'll take Tesla's version.
> 
> I'll take it. I bought in at $285....I'll take it vs. every other car company.
> 
> Is Tesla perfect? Lets all say it together....."NO". But I'll take it vs where all other car companies are.


NOTHING you mentioned has anything to do with the progress (or lack thereof) of FSD. Cool, you're benefiting as an investor (good for you I suppose). Well I invested in FSD and at the current rate of return I'd be losing by the end of the useful life of my 3. A little over a year of ownership and nothing of actual benefit and usefulness has been released for my FSD purchase (BETA IMHO is NOT a valid release). I've not quiet giving up, but as others mentioned Elon has made some bold promises that aren't panning out. And when people put down THOUSANDS of dollars for said promises, they want their return as well.


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## FRC

Terrible Enterprise Slick Lovable Automobiles


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## Garlan Garner

FRC said:


> I'm OK with being lied to? Absurd.





shareef777 said:


> NOTHING you mentioned has anything to do with the progress (or lack thereof) of FSD. Cool, you're benefiting as an investor (good for you I suppose). Well I invested in FSD and at the current rate of return I'd be losing by the end of the useful life of my 3. A little over a year of ownership and nothing of actual benefit and usefulness has been released for my FSD purchase (BETA IMHO is NOT a valid release). I've not quiet giving up, but as others mentioned Elon has made some bold promises that aren't panning out. And when people put down THOUSANDS of dollars for said promises, they want their return as well.


I get what you are saying. Trust me...I do. As I said before...I would lobby for you to get all of your money back if I thought it was possible or make a difference.

I'm understanding day by day how different I am than mainstream.

For me.....I find so many good things in "situations ( Tesla ) " in life that it outweighs the bad ones....to the point where it doesn't bother me if something is wrong. That's why I listed all of those good things about Tesla.

Sure....there are things that Tesla has fallen short on, but there are BY FAR more fantastic things that they have succeeded with that I can't even fathom trashing them for ANY shortcomings.

I look at the local news....bad story after bad story after bad story....and then before a commercial....a good one to get you to come back....then bad story after bad story...…. They know psychology and bad stories/news draw people in for some insane reason. 1 billion successful driving miles with no accidents, but its the ONE accident that people are drawn to and makes the news.

Again...I realize day by day that I'm becoming farther from the norm....but oh well...I'm going to keep counting the good because that's just me.


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## Garlan Garner

I'm glad they didn't promise or announce this one.

https://electrek.co/2020/05/19/tesla-bidirectional-charging-ready-game-changing-features/

Maybe they have stopped announcing and promising.....and are just rolling out good stuff now.!!!!

Fantastic!!!


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## shareef777

Garlan Garner said:


> I get what you are saying. Trust me...I do. As I said before...I would lobby for you to get all of your money back if I thought it was possible or make a difference.
> 
> I'm understanding day by day how different I am than mainstream.
> 
> For me.....I find so many good things in "situations ( Tesla ) " in life that it outweighs the bad ones....to the point where it doesn't bother me if something is wrong. That's why I listed all of those good things about Tesla.
> 
> Sure....there are things that Tesla has fallen short on, but there are BY FAR more fantastic things that they have succeeded with that I can't even fathom trashing them for ANY shortcomings.
> 
> I look at the local news....bad story after bad story after bad story....and then before a commercial....a good one to get you to come back....then bad story after bad story...…. They know psychology and bad stories/news draw people in for some insane reason. 1 billion successful driving miles with no accidents, but its the ONE accident that people are drawn to and makes the news.
> 
> Again...I realize day by day that I'm becoming farther from the norm....but oh well...I'm going to keep counting the good because that's just me.


There's a lot of good when it comes to Tesla. My 3 is by far the greatest vehicle I've EVER owned and I've gone through a couple dozen in my life. And yes, the good outweigh the bad. That doesn't give them a pass on the bad in my book.


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## gary in NY

FRC said:


> I'm OK with being lied to? Absurd.


I don't feel like I've been lied to regarding FSD. When I added it to my configuration it was clear that these features were in development and would be delivered at a future date. At that time, there was no timeline for delivery. Most online commentators at the time were warning that it is a long way off, meaning 10 years or more, so there was some reason to have second thoughts. Tesla has misjudged the difficulty though. But I also think the aspirational goals are still there, and that at some point they will crack the code for vision based FSD.

Probably my biggest motivation was that the price was only supposed to higher, so lock it in now (EAP and FSD) at the current price. Then a few months later it went on sale. I could have saved some money had I waited. That bugs me. But Tesla changed the vehicle pricing and standard features, so it's hard to say how much less I could have spent. I did get the tax credit, and was able to claim the entire $7,500.

Still, it's the most amazing car I've had, and it's a ton of fun to drive. And I'll probably keep it long enough to see FSD, even it it takes 10 years. I'll never go back to an ICE car, even though I still have my work truck.


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## Needsdecaf

gary in NY said:


> I don't feel like I've been lied to regarding FSD......At that time, there was no timeline for delivery.


"If you fast forward a year, maybe a year three months, we'll have over a million robo-taxis on the road."

Elon Musk
April 2019


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## iChris93

Needsdecaf said:


> "If you fast forward a year, maybe a year three months, we'll have over a million robo-taxis on the road."
> 
> Elon Musk
> April 2019


3 months maybe, 6 months definitely.


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## FRC

Needsdecaf said:


> "If you fast forward a year, maybe a year three months, we'll have over a million robo-taxis on the road."
> 
> Elon Musk
> April 2019


Hey now, let's be fair @Needsdecaf, that one's not a lie for two more months yet!


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## gary in NY

Needsdecaf said:


> "If you fast forward a year, maybe a year three months, we'll have over a million robo-taxis on the road."
> 
> Elon Musk
> April 2019


I configured in June of 2018. Even then, we knew Musk's timelines probably didn't line up with reality. I wasn't following every detail then, but I was certainly following the headlines. I'm not particularly happy about the status now, but it's not been two years since I configured, and even less since delivery. Five years from now it might be a different story. (At least I got a computer upgrade)

There is not much else to say. Either we ride it out, or form a class action lawsuit and file for damages. Then we need a judge who, based on the evidence, sees it our way. I'm quite a ways from there right now, but I see your point on the matter.


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## Garlan Garner

gary in NY said:


> I configured in June of 2018. Even then, we knew Musk's timelines probably didn't line up with reality. I wasn't following every detail then, but I was certainly following the headlines. I'm not particularly happy about the status now, but it's not been two years since I configured, and even less since delivery. Five years from now it might be a different story. (At least I got a computer upgrade)
> 
> There is not much else to say. Either we ride it out, or form a class action lawsuit and file for damages. Then we need a judge who, based on the evidence, sees it our way. I'm quite a ways from there right now, but I see your point on the matter.


You should sell your Tesla.


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## FRC

Garlan Garner said:


> You should sell your Tesla.


Does this mean that in order to own and operate a Tesla vehicle one must be lock-step with the way Elon conducts his business? I haven't drunk that cool-aid yet, and don't intend to. The issue here, generally, is not whether the car is any good(it's fantastic, wonderful, exciting, fun, cutting-edge, and historical). The issue that many of us take exception to is the way that Elon does business in public and in the media.

If he would implement one change in his personality, most of what we're complaining about would be resolved. It's a simple thing that many of us were taught from the earliest of ages. And don't give him a pass because he's intelligent. All he needs to do is-Think before you speak.


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## gary in NY

For many of the reasons discussed above, I have no interest in selling my car. My commitment as a Tesla owner and investor is high, but not above loosing sight of shortfalls in either the hardware, software or the company's policies and practices.


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## iChris93

As @gary in NY said, there are plenty of reasons that we all can enjoy our cars but enjoying our cars does not mean that we can't have a issue or two with Tesla. So, let's try to be understanding of that and keep the conversation level-headed.


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## Garlan Garner

FRC said:


> Does this mean that in order to own and operate a Tesla vehicle one must be lock-step with the way Elon conducts his business? I haven't drunk that cool-aid yet, and don't intend to. The issue here, generally, is not whether the car is any good(it's fantastic, wonderful, exciting, fun, cutting-edge, and historical). The issue that many of us take exception to is the way that Elon does business in public and in the media.
> 
> If he would implement one change in his personality, most of what we're complaining about would be resolved. It's a simple thing that many of us were taught from the earliest of ages. And don't give him a pass because he's intelligent. All he needs to do is-Think before you speak.


No No, No, there are not requirements to being a tesla owner.

I mean that folks with so much disdain for such a horrible CEO and such inferior features to the point of law suits and damages wouldn't want to be a part.

How many times has Elon taken to whatever he is being accused of? How many times hasn't he taken to whatever he is being accused of?

Battery day.....any news so far? Any promises? Car to grid? any news? Any details on anything coming up? China Giga factory? They are building huge buildings....any detailed news? Berlin Giga factory.....anything? promises?


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## FRC

I think you're missing our point. Tesla is producing an incredible product. Now, if Elon could put his ego aside and let someone else run the business and customer service sides of the business, Tesla could make the transition from incredible product to incredible business.


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## Garlan Garner

FRC said:


> I think you're missing our point. Tesla is producing an incredible product. Now, if Elon could put his ego aside and let someone else run the business and customer service sides of the business, Tesla could make the transition from incredible product to incredible business.


I fully get the point. I get it.

However when you get to the point where you want to get a class action lawsuit with a group of people going...for damages....thats a little more than a dislike of some ones ego.

You want to take money away from Tesla? How much money would make a difference to a multi billionaire?

Tesla doesn't owe us a successful company. I know some of us would like a successful company, but they owe me nothing.


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## FRC

Garlan Garner said:


> I fully get the point. I get it.
> 
> However when you get to the point where you want to get a class action lawsuit with a group of people going...for damages....thats a little more than a dislike of some ones ego.


I read @gary in NY"s post differently than you did. I read him to say-Let's ride out the bad and hope it gets better because our only alternative would be a likely doomed class action lawsuit. Can he keep his car if that's what he meant?


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## Garlan Garner

FRC said:


> I read @gary in NY"s post differently than you did. I read him to say-Let's ride out the bad and hope it gets better because our only alternative would be a likely doomed class action lawsuit. Can he keep his car if that's what he meant?


I'm answering your questions....I kindly ask for the same.


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## iChris93

Garlan Garner said:


> You want to take money away from Tesla? How much money would make a difference to a multi billionaire?


You're conflating Elon Musk with Tesla.

Like I asked above, please keep the conversation level-headed. I think you will find @FRC and @gary in NY are Tesla fans with just a few gripes. We can like something and still want it to grow and improve.


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## shareef777

iChris93 said:


> You're conflating Elon Musk with Tesla.
> 
> Like I asked above, please keep the conversation level-headed. I think you will find @FRC and @gary in NY are Tesla fans with just a few gripes. We can like something and still want it to grow and improve.


THIS is what I gear for society. The ALL or nothing approach to everything. The world isn't so black and white. You can both like something, AND wish it were better. Like you said, Tesla isn't JUST Tesla. I paid for a Model 3, AND paid for FSD. The model 3 has far surpassed my expectations. FSD, not so much.


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## FRC

Garlan Garner said:


> I'm answering your questions....I kindly ask for the same.


I've re-read your posts and can only find one question from you. I don't think any amount of money will slow Elon down...but no one here is advocating punishing him financially. We simply want improved business practices. When people plunk down 50, 60 ,70 or more thousands for a car they tend to expect more than just the 4 wheels they drove off the lot. They expect any promises made to them in writing to be honored and they expect a meaningful level of customer service. Tesla has consistently missed the mark in these areas, and you are reading posters here who are frustrated to some degree with that. Personally my level of frustration is very low(thankfully), but that doesn't mean that I can't advocate for improvement in areas of weakness.


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