# TSLA Analyst Coverage - 2017 Q2



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

One of the better bearish articles about Tesla on Seeking Alpha:
Warren Buffett Offers Clear Thinking About Tesla's Challenges
The author harkens back to a talk Warren Buffett gave 16 years ago about the emergence of the automobile market, and how it's relevant to the huge upheaval that will happen soon with electric cars. The main premise is that Buffet keeps a list of 2000 auto companies that emerged during that time, and of those only 3 survived. And it's hard to predict which 3 will survive.

That's all good. But then the author says that the winner will need three things to survive:

scale, including sales, operational, and financial or balance sheet scale,
a separate dealership network, and
an independently existing or self-funded refueling infrastructure.
Point 1 is true, and Tesla is going all-in on achieving scale quickly.

Point 2 is... stupid. As Tesla has pointed out time-and-time again, traditional auto dealers don't know how to sell Tesla electric cars. Traditional auto dealers use maintenance as a profit center, which won't work with electric cars that need very little maintenance in comparison to combustion cars. Tesla is showing that customers appreciate and prefer the direct-selling model. I think they'll show that cutting out that aweful middleman is the correct way forward.

Point 3 is also stupid. It's an electric car. Charging infrastructure is all around you. Most people will charge at home. We don't need charging at every intersection like gas stations. The only need for charging outside of the home (and outside of work) is to support long-distance driving. And Tesla's supercharger network has that covered.

So, great point about not necessarily knowing which companies will survive the upheaval, but fails when it comes to predicting why Tesla will not end up being a survivor.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

but Tesla does have #2 - as company owned stores, galleries and service centers - just not as external franchised dealerships.
was their point that traditional manufacturers make money on the franchise fees and that should be a requirement to make money, or was it that they need to have outlets for sales and service? The second seems more logical but I don't know what my local dealership pays for the privilege of selling x brand cars and how much that impacts the manufacturers bottom line.
or was it said because that's the way cars have been sold for the last 100 years?


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

MelindaV said:


> was their point that traditional manufacturers make money on the franchise fees and that should be a requirement to make money, or was it that they need to have outlets for sales and service?


That's where the article falls flat. They state that these three things are required, but don't bother to back that up with reasons *why* they believe those to be required.


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## Gilberto Pe-Curto (Oct 20, 2016)

ahahhahahahahaha


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/848935705057280001


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## Gilberto Pe-Curto (Oct 20, 2016)




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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

It astounds me that no matter how often I add [SINKING ANCHOR] to my personal blocklist on Google, their articles still appear in searches regarding TSLA or Tesla in general. Plus, the personal blocklist doesn't work on the _'News'_ section of Google at all.










Is it really a surprise to see which stocks are down _(or up)_ on the news that Tesla (TSLA) has surpassed $300?









I reiterate what I have said for some time, _"320 or bust!"_ And, I amplify that with an expectation that Jim Cramer's head will explode on air right about the time that TSLA passes $450-to-$500.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

It would appear as if it is corrida time (i.e. for those who do not know this Spanish institution... the bulls are out!! ) at SA (or have the bears gone to hibernate in the spring?)
Model 3 Demand Will Exceed 500,000 Units Per Year & Drive Tesla To $500 Per Share $TSLA
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4060381

By the way... could not help but notice the writer's first name...?! Is he the Mr. Hyde of Montana Skeptic's Dr. Jekyll??


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

http://realmoney.thestreet.com/arti...d-vs.-tesla?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo
Apparently tesla has only produced 83k cars in the last 5 years... and ford is great, of course. Pay no attention to the market cap value, it doesn't mean anything. Oh, and ford is great.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> Model 3 Demand Will Exceed 500,000 Units Per Year & Drive Tesla To $500 Per Share $TSLA
> http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4060381


Finally, somebody who realizes that you can't directly compare a growing company to one already established in the market.


> My metric to gauge Tesla's valuation is the company's normalized earnings power. Or in other words, how much operating income I think the business could earn if it decided to stop growing and maximize profitability tomorrow.


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

garsh said:


> Finally, somebody who realizes that you can't directly compare a growing company to one already established in the market.


_"My metric to gauge Tesla's valuation is the company's normalized earnings power. Or in other words, how much operating income I think the business could earn if it decided to stop growing and maximize profitability tomorrow."_​
That is a rational quote. I'm still not clicking through to [SINKING ANCHOR], though. And, fact of the matter, is that Tesla's strategy is that of a minnow in shark infested waters -- keep moving and stay alive. Stop, rest, hang out for a while, lose focus, become distracted...? Become someone else's lunch.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

_Nice_ one...:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-as-a-company-makes-sense-just-as-amazon-does-2017-04-06

_Less nice_ one:
http://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/04/06/tesla-bulls-are-stuck-in-the-matrix-says-analyst.html

Just trying to be objective... 
Hard to do when all indications are the car should be on time... and looks great...


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## Gary Moore (Apr 10, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> Hard to do when all indications are the car should be on time... and looks great...


Yes, the opinion expressed by a joint subservient unit of both a company which is owned by that ****y cable company which I hate the most and of another company, which was previously (Nikola Tesla's rival) Thomas Edison's employer is somehow _amazingly_ a tad less cheery than that of a company which is owned by Dow Jones (which might perhaps know more about the stock market-- I'm just guessing).

The idea of the Matrix is not that reality isn't real, it's that the model in people's minds is basically unreal.

No reporters once showed up at Buffalo in 1896 because Edison had said that AC wouldn't work, yet Nikola's ghost should still be smiling, whether he still has the 'stache or not these days. (How many folks do you know that own an Edison sedan or SUV???)

As Billy Joel once said in _Miami 2017_, "I saw the lights go out on Broadway..."


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Can Tesla Rev Up Revenues Significantly Next Year?
Looks like the Tesla longs are starting to find their voice on SeekingAlpha.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

This is clearly getting Wall Street's (and Detroit's!! ) attention...:
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/10/tesl...to-become-the-most-valuable-us-automaker.html


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

The rise of TSLA this week gives me the opportunity to post on a Post article... 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...05b9ae-1dfd-11e7-be2a-3a1fb24d4671_story.html


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

To @garsh 's point in #237,







are coming to SA!
Great one... I believe not the first for A. Cho!

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4061731-comparing-tesla-competing-automakers-meaningless


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Our very own @AEDennis , making the news on the other side of the country...!! 
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/11/business/tesla-stock-elon-musk.amp.html
In all fairness, Dennis, I think the title has you misquoted... you certainly did not say you're 'looking for feet of clay'! And, we can be fans and worry... 'cause it's never been done...

Which doesn't mean it can't and it won't, or that we'll lose the faith... Pretty sure you go along with that... Of course the journalist probably did not ask you that...


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## AEDennis (Apr 10, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> Our very own @AEDennis , making the news on the other side of the country...!!
> https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/11/business/tesla-stock-elon-musk.amp.html
> In all fairness, Dennis, I think the title has you misquoted... you certainly did not say you're 'looking for feet of clay'! And, we can be fans and worry... 'cause it's never been done...
> 
> Which doesn't mean it can't and it won't, or that we'll lose the faith... Pretty sure you go along with that... Of course the journalist probably did not ask you that...


Thanks @Michael Russo

All the quotes attributed to me were accurate...

...however, we had a long conversation and the quotes that were chosen did not include the details p, which provides all the nuances...

My point was at these prices were on "hold. They took "editorial prerogative" for the title. (And the pictures... especially the one on the printed edition... we had a few hour shift of photos and the editor chose the ones that made me look worried... which is funny because I had the look because the sun was blinding me...)

They also quoted me properly... I'm always worried about execution.... it's not just a Tesla thing.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

AEDennis said:


> Thanks @Michael Russo
> 
> All the quotes attributed to me were accurate...
> 
> ...


Exactly as I thought. Am with you on execution. That is why the next few months are so intriguing! 
Have a nice CA night! 
Going to work...


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Forbes is putting out some short, poorly-researched articles lately. I'd like to highlight some parts from the following article, and discuss why it's wrong.
The Tesla Semi: A Bad Idea

_Tesla has plenty to do without this new product introduction; the company faces a looming deadline for introducing the Model 3.
_​Yeah, and Ford shouldn't be planning on the next 1-ton pickup, because they need to get the next Mustang out the door. 

_Tesla offers high priced cars; there is no market for 'premium' priced trucks. 
_​If this writer had done *any* investigation into Tesla, such as reading their mission statement, or their secret master plan, he'd know that Tesla's goal is not to create high margin, high-priced cars. Or maybe if the writer noticed that the Model 3 will start at $35,000, he would have realized that they're driving down cost & prices.

_...battery powered trucks are apt to have a limited range.
_​I don't see why that should be the case. Indeed, a truck should have plenty of room to cram all sorts of batteries inside, if need be.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

garsh said:


> _Tesla offers high priced cars; there is no market for 'premium' priced trucks. _


Have they looked at F-Series lately? A truck is not a cheap vehicle! They start in the $50k range for nothing fancy. If you need it as a work truck, easily $80k


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

MelindaV said:


> Have they looked at F-Series lately?


They're talking about semi trucks, not pickups.
That said, I think they run from $80k for something basic, to $200k for a fancy one with a sleeper cab.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

garsh said:


> They're talking about semi trucks, not pickups.
> That said, I think they run from $80k for something basic, to $200k for a fancy one with a sleeper cab.


Totally skipped right to the pickup truck plan... oops


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Trust NASDAQ is down for Good Friday, right?
Happy Easter weekend, folks! :rainbow::innocent:


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## AEDennis (Apr 10, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> Trust NASDAQ is down for Good Friday, right?
> Happy Easter weekend, folks! :rainbow::innocent:


Prefer to call it "closed", not "down" for Good Friday. Down means the market is open and prices are down. Closed means no trading.

As for Semi Trucks. I would have preferred going after pickup trucks first (then perhaps Texas would open their sales to Tesla) as we already have the supercharging infrastructure for that...


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## Badback (Apr 7, 2016)

AEDennis said:


> Prefer to call it "closed", not "down" for Good Friday. Down means the market is open and prices are down. Closed means no trading.
> 
> As for Semi Trucks. I would have preferred going after pickup trucks first (then perhaps Texas would open their sales to Tesla) as we already have the supercharging infrastructure for that...


Just make sure that it has a pan for a 6-pak in the center of the front seat.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

AEDennis said:


> Prefer to call it "closed", not "down" for Good Friday. Down means the market is open and prices are down. Closed means no trading.
> 
> As for Semi Trucks. I would have preferred going after pickup trucks first (then perhaps Texas would open their sales to Tesla) as we already have the supercharging infrastructure for that...


Of course, closed! How forgetful of me.. 
And you're right about pick-up trucks. 
Wasn't it said that they would use the semi-trucks in the supply chain of the Gigafactory?


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## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

I think Semi Trucks is a great choice They are lower volume high margin vehicles and are the greatest single point source of particulate matter (Soot) and NOx in the transportation system.

https://www.des.nh.gov/organization/commissioner/pip/factsheets/ard/documents/ard-34.pdf

Quote from the above linked paper:


> "EPA's National Emissions Inventory for 2008, heavy duty diesel vehicles contributed 36 percent of the particulate matter, 30 percent of the NOx and 26 percent of the SOx from the transportation sector, yet comprise only 2 percent of the total number of vehicles on the roadways"


Switching just a few percent of the heavy trucks and buses on the road to EVs can make a larger impact on air quality and greenhouse gasses than replacing a similar percentage of cars.


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## AEDennis (Apr 10, 2016)

AEDennis said:


> Thanks @Michael Russo
> 
> All the quotes attributed to me were accurate...
> 
> ...


ok.... Finally got around to crafting a response on my blog about the article and things around it...


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

AEDennis said:


> ok.... Finally got around to crafting a response on my blog about the article and things around it...


Well written. Good on you for setting the record straught(er)! Like the part about the pic choice by the NYT... 
Indeed, even from this far, did not look like the 'normal' AEDennis!


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

Hey everyone. I'm just catching up after several busy days.

Just a reminder for everyone invested in TSLA. This 'delivery event' is going to be a huge deal. 

Not only is the Model 3 FINALLY going to be seen in it's complete form, but we are going to see the specs of the new 2180 battery. That will be huge. That will give us an idea of what the S and X will soon be capable of. 

The event will likely break viewership records, especially from the competition watching .

Has anyone bought tickets to see Elon speak at an upcoming TED talks?

I'm sure none of this is news for anyone lol. I just had to say it out loud.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

'Smarter Analyst'?! _I beg to differ_... The author suggest the just revealed Audi e-Tron SUV might be a threat to Model ≡, as of next year (!) yet she can't even spell Volkswagen 
Sure there will be competition, and that is fine, yet will it mean imminent downfall of our favorite maker of S ≡ X Y EVs...? Well, truth be told that is a long shot... 

https://www.smarteranalyst.com/2017/04/20/tesla-inc-tsla-long-way-fall/


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

OK, now we know, TSLA is must-own stock... 
http://m.nasdaq.com/article/tesla-proves-once-again-that-it-is-a-must-own-stock-cm777053


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## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

This article from our friends at Seeking Alpha is interesting.
Normally I see click bait from them I ignore it. But this one seemed unhinged enough to be worth giving the writer Seeking Alpha's 1 cent per click bounty to have a look.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4062953-big-tesla-swindle

tl;dr  Tesla is a big Ponzi swindle because the author says so.

A few highlights. 

Tesla is losing gobs of money because the author does not count income that does not either go in the bank or back to investors as profit. Income that has been invested in factories and R&D counts as a loss. Borrowed money doubly so.
The Models S and X were only produced as a way to induce more investors to throw their money into the Musk fortune.
Apparently, the author still believes that Tesla loses money on every car.
There is no market for BEVs because lots more ICEs are sold.
BEVs aren't viable because there are not charger stations on every corner.
Subsidies will go away and so will sales.
Tesla's only purpose is to enrich Elon Musk.
 The amount of wrong in the following quote is breathtaking.

"Over the years, the Musk family and management saw their many enticing stock options vesting, tied to the performance-based stock options plan that set out a variety of performance milestones open to interpretation - completion of a Model S, X or 3 alpha prototypes, beta prototypes, production vehicle and volume production targets (whatever "alpha prototype," "beta prototype," "production" or "volume production" mean in Tesla's particular context) as well as meeting certain annualised gross margin targets (Tesla calculates gross margin very differently to all other automakers)."

This goes on for 20 click through pages and it never gets better.

I am not going to go through and point out the errors in what was written above as we are all familiar with these arguments.

I read it so you don't have to.​


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## Guy Weathersby (Jun 22, 2016)

@gravityrydr said:


> This article from our friends at Seeking Alpha is interesting.
> Normally I see click bait from them I ignore it. But this one seemed unhinged enough to be worth giving the writer Seeking Alpha's 1 cent per click bounty to have a look.
> https://seekingalpha.com/article/4062953-big-tesla-swindle
> 
> ...


In addition to factual and logical errors, I am bothered by the linguistic weakness. Words are only useful if they have meaning and a Ponzi scheme is a specific term where early investors receive generous returns based on money received from new investors. It is a type of pyramid scheme. Since Tesla has not been paying dividends or otherwise repaying investors, it cannot, by definition be a Ponzi scheme.

If you ever encounter an "expert" who does n


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## Guy Weathersby (Jun 22, 2016)

Sorry... 
Understand at basic terms of art of their field. You have no reason to bother seeing what they have to say.


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## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

To be fair to the author. I don't think the word Ponzi was used in the article. It was a term I used as shorthand for the articles' basic charge of using the later investment to keep the supposed con afloat.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

I find this kind of transparency on the part of Elon particularly refreshing... 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-at-least-593-million-in-income-taxes-in-2016


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

At least one analyst at CNBC has high hopes for Tesla
Auto media link doesn't seem to work.... video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000612225


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Yeah, yet the skeptical faces & body language of the anchor lady are to die for ...


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## Jazmo (Apr 24, 2017)

I used to like hearing what Andrea James had to say about Tesla. Got me fired up. Pity she had to stop being a Tesla analyst and buy Tesla shares 

In an interview back in March 2016 she was suggesting a $355 price target. Hopefully it'll get there soon


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

I think you will only have to wait for July for that.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

LOL. This a new interpretation of the famous Murphy's Law... 
You quote a target of almost 50% of the current value of a popular value 'cause you don't understand it... and the stock goes up almost 2% that very same day! 

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/25/bank...risk-to-the-long-term-viability-of-tesla.html


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## Gary Moore (Apr 10, 2016)

Ladies and gentlemen. The main event!

In this corner, Hedgy Wall Street Poker Chip, with the red shorts, weighing in with a B. A. in government from Cornell. Claims that he once knocked out Steve Balmer in a multiround event in 2013.

In the other corner, the electrifying Ironman, the "current" champion, in the P100D, weighing in with one B. S. in physics and another in economics from the University of Pennsylvania.

The weatherman says that somebody's going to lose their shorts. 

Green lights simply don't last forever. I'm going with the Cardinal. Red means he stops Chippy! That's about as colorful a way as I can possibly describe it.


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## Badback (Apr 7, 2016)

Gary Moore said:


> Ladies and gentlemen. The main event!
> 
> In this corner, Hedgy Wall Street Poker Chip, with the red shorts, weighing in with a B. A. in government from Cornell. Claims that he once knocked out Steve Balmer in a multiround event in 2013.
> 
> ...


Gary, I read it three times, and can't say that I understood any of it.


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## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

Ugh. I sold out at $290 figuring it was going to top out at under $300 and then bounce down for a bit. Oh well, I've made a good bit of profit so far. I've tried to be patient but maybe I'll get back in at the higher level and work the swings above $300.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

If a Model X trapping the occupants inside during a car fire doesn't cause the stock price to go down, I don't know what will.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Think we should call them the Green Barons! 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/858297313927811072


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

The poor shorts are drowning right now. Thanks for the money .


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

BigBri said:


> The poor shorts are drowning right now. Thanks for the money .
> 
> View attachment 1363


Happy to report the ride is going on... +1% over your pic time, @BigBri ! So the shorts must fuse...


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

TSLA got folks' attention today...!

http://www.investors.com/news/techn...high-just-ahead-of-quarterly-earnings-report/

And an even better one:

http://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/05/01/this-chart-makes-the-case-for-buying-tesla-ahead-of-earnings.html


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Nice article by Matt Pressman from Evannex, via Teslarati... on (Morgan Stanley) Jonas' latest views...

Tesla poised to disrupt the entire transportation industry, not just auto
http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-disrupt-transportation-industry-not-just-auto/


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

All eyes on tomorrow's earnings call, with lots of built in skepticism in this one... 
IMHO... the prospect of T≡SLA selling 2 million cars in _ten_ years does not strike me as far fetched... with the vehicle line-up they are likely to have by then... 
http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/05/tesla-stock-rips-retreats-earnings-tsla/


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

More reflections on T≡SLA's long term market capitalization potential... hugely dependent on the alien dreadnought apparently... can you believe the T≡SLA > Apple notion?! 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/el...-make-tesla-worth-as-much-as-apple-2017-05-04


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

If you ever thought this wouldn't be, I found the most favorable article from a true (Seeking) Alpha Bull!! Wow. Enjoy,

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4069096-tesla-earnings-heres-fools-realize


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

OK, TSLA >5% down today... 't was to be expected after the earnings call yesterday...

But, IMHO, the key words here are '_so what?'_ Do we still remember what the stock value was as we entered 2017, the Year of Model ≡ ?!
Who truly expected >$300 performance 3 months before Model ≡ launch...?? 

Wait until the first few hundred cars start rolling out of the assembly lines in July, then as we start seeing them in Stores maybe by the late fall... More good stuff to come...!  :rainbow:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/05/04/why-tesla-inc-is-down-today.aspx


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Interesting to note how many analysts were able to go past the higher than expected adjusted loss per share and still remain bullish about TSLA projections... 

http://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/14B1E862-30BC-11E7-9D4C-E9AD2E5E0A61


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

If you wanted to pick up some more stock, here's the big dip in price that you've been waiting for.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Well, last time I checked, my blood test turned out negative... 
There's got to be another explanation that _those of little faith_ don't seem to get... 

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/04/cramer-you-have-to-be-on-drugs-to-understand-teslas-business.html


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Isn't it refreshing to know that there _*are*_ 'smarter' analysts out there... 
Here, Rob Cihra from Guggenheim:

https://www.smarteranalyst.com/2017/05/05/tesla-inc-tsla-facebook-inc-fb-get-price-target-boosts/


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## Gary Moore (Apr 10, 2016)

People tend to judge the present and the future by whatever they've seen before. 

If you happen to know that a bakery which is about to make new cookies needs to buy ovens and cookie cutters before it can roll, then the fiery term "cash burn" does not truly phase you as well as some alpha-focused hedge manager might hope. (No! Fire bad! Oh wait, these smores are good!) Some guys play both sides of the street for the heads-I-win, tails-you-lose combo platters. People are ever fascinated by magicians. If customers are lined up around the block before the shop opens, the decision to buy new-fangled cookie cutters is not as high-risk as headlines may claim. Now, may I direct your attention to my lovely assistant?

If you've never before seen a fully-automated, large Schuler press line set-up pumping out auto door panels like its filling up cans with Pringles, then your estimation of how fast that things can appear in short order in your rear view mirror and then rapidly blow your doors off needs some major re-calibration.

Engage the warp drive. I love laughing maniacally..


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Is it me, or the number of these _truly visionary guys_ (prefer that to 'bulls' any day! ) seems to be on the rise lately? 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vc-s...worth-hundreds-billions-decade-192500725.html


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Encouraging trend...! Wonder to what extent current TSLA value already anticipates the now more and more likely smooth Model ≡ launch per plan in July... We'll know soon enough... yet something tells me $330 could also be surpassed sooner than expected...

http://www.livetradingnews.com/tesla-inc-nasdaqtsla-4-years-ahead-schedual-41349.html

http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=TSLA&mode=table&table=trend

Note: _I don't own any TSLA stock and I don't receive any compensation for writing this post other than from a guy by the (weird) name of Nole Ksum on an otherwise totally secret anonymous bank account in the Cayman Islands..._


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

Just a reminder of how unrelenting the $#0r+s can be:

*Short Interest in TSLA - NASDAQ*

Never below 26,000,000 shares since May 2016. As high as 35,600,000 in late-November 2016. Over 31,000,000 shares since mid-November 2016. An average of 10.5 Days to Cover in September 2016. An average of 3.6 Days to Cover in February 2017.

--------

*Short Interest in NVDA - NASDAQ*

As high as 71,400,000 shares in mid-December 2016. That has fallen back considerably since, to only 28,600,000 shares, and 3.0 Days to Cover, in late-April 2017. I guess a lot of guys got sorely burned, with Days to Cover as low as 1.2 in Mid-February 2017 -- when $#0r+ Interest was a _'lowly'_ 22,200,000 shares. But, the $#0r+s appear to be coming back for more of a beating. Cool.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

What floored me about this article full of seemingly scientific, 'technicals' parameters supposed to guide potential investors & traders as to what to do... is this near conclusion:
'_That question cannot be answered definitively since things change all the time.'_
What?! 

The other thought I had was since everything about TSLA is so out of the ordinary and the company is changjng the rules of the game... to what extent are Wall Street 'technicals' even relevant??
Just saying... 

https://www.nystocknews.com/2017/05...-and-its-latest-technicals-are-playing-out-2/


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## Badback (Apr 7, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> What floored me about this article full of seemingly scientific, 'technicals' parameters supposed to guide potential investors & traders as to what to do... is this near conclusion:
> '_That question cannot be answered definitively since things change all the time.'_
> What?!
> 
> ...


"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future" - Yogi Berra.


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## RSSFeed (Sep 28, 2016)

*Tesla's stock (TSLA) falls on downgrade from Morgan Stanley, sees almost no Model 3 delivery in 2017*










After a run to almost its all-time high last week, Tesla's stock had a 3% setback in pre-market trading this morning after Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley, one of the most followed auto industry analysts when it comes to Tesla, downgraded the stock following its first quarter results.

Jonas downgraded the stock to "Equalweight" since its run to $325 made it passed his $305 price target. The analyst also warns investors that Model 3 deliveries could be much lower than anticipated in 2017 and 2018. more…

















Continue reading...


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## Ip Man (Jan 7, 2017)

Well this just hit a major huge road bump this weekend.
https://electrek.co/2017/05/15/teslas-stock-tsla-morgan-stanley-model-3/


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## Ip Man (Jan 7, 2017)

https://electrek.co/2017/05/15/teslas-stock-tsla-morgan-stanley-model-3/
uh oh. Looks like I was right.


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## SoFlaModel3 (Apr 15, 2017)

Tesla007 said:


> https://electrek.co/2017/05/15/teslas-stock-tsla-morgan-stanley-model-3/
> uh oh. Looks like I was right.


We are down 8 points before the open. I'm still confident we will see "a lot" of cars in 2017.


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## Mark C (Aug 26, 2016)

I don't think a Morgan Stanley analyst knows anything more than I do about whether Tesla will be on time with the Model 3. However, unless I was being paid, I wouldn't be hanging out on a website that promotes any product that I didn't want for the purpose of bashing it on a regular basis. I've got a life.


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## Topher (May 11, 2016)

"we believe our forecast of 2k Model 3 deliveries this year is substantially below current market expectations."

No kidding. But where does that forecast come from? With only 1.5 months until promised start of production, no indications of problems in the information Tesla is giving to investors, and many production candidates hitting the roads, and test facilities. Nevertheless, they expect that Tesla will miss their mark by almost 2 orders of magnitude? Based on what evidence? It can't be something Tesla have seen, or Tesla would be in trouble with SEC for not disclosing it. So they must see something Tesla does not. 

Maybe I should just shut up and see if they can drive the price down, so I can buy shares.

Thank you kindly.


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## Badback (Apr 7, 2016)

Topher said:


> "we believe our forecast of 2k Model 3 deliveries this year is substantially below current market expectations."
> 
> No kidding. But where does that forecast come from? With only 1.5 months until promised start of production, no indications of problems in the information Tesla is giving to investors, and many production candidates hitting the roads, and test facilities. Nevertheless, they expect that Tesla will miss their mark by almost 2 orders of magnitude? Based on what evidence? It can't be something Tesla have seen, or Tesla would be in trouble with SEC for not disclosing it. So they must see something Tesla does not.
> 
> ...


That is exactly what they are trying to do.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Topher said:


> Maybe I should just shut up and see if they can drive the price down, so I can buy shares.


was just going to ask who else was looking at it to drop and pick up more shares... 
I'd be surprised if it is not back up around $330 within the week - and certainly higher by the time we have details released on the Model ☰
(fyi - to date my '$TSLA savings plan', including today's current price, has over a 54% return, so not too worried about what it does day to day - but damn wish I'd bought more last summer or post election!)


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Tesla007 said:


> Well this just hit a major huge road bump this weekend.
> https://electrek.co/2017/05/15/teslas-stock-tsla-morgan-stanley-model-3/





Tesla007 said:


> https://electrek.co/2017/05/15/teslas-stock-tsla-morgan-stanley-model-3/
> uh oh. Looks like I was right.


@Tesla007 , adding the link in two separate posts isn't really necessary, particularly since all Elektrek articles appear automatically...


Mark C said:


> I don't think a Morgan Stanley analyst knows anything more than I do about whether Tesla will be on time with the Model 3. However, unless I was being paid, I wouldn't be hanging out on a website that promotes any product that I didn't want for the purpose of bashing it on a regular basis. I've got a life.


The market is overreacting to what seems to be just one analyst's conjectures... what Jonas has eaten does not sit well...
Some are that overreaction to the market...


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> @Tesla007 , adding the link in two separate posts isn't really necessary, particularly since all Elektrek articles appear automatically...
> 
> The market is overreacting to what seems to be just one analyst's conjectures... what Jonas has eaten does not sit well...
> Some are that overreaction to the market...


This is standard issue _'Cover Your @$s' (CYA)_ at work. Just as it was during an earlier supposed _'downgrade'_ by the same analyst. It was simply a list of _"I think I'm right, but what the heck do I know."_ could be, what if, maybe, sort of situations that investors should be aware of, and nothing more. The analyst has to say these things, instead of assuming his subscribers have already seen the same _'concerns'_ elsewhere. Ultimately, this is no different than the _'RISK FACTORS'_ section of Tesla's SEC filings.

Anyone can do this. I predicted way back when TSLA was hovering about $225 or so that it would be $320 some day. Since then, the stock dropped all the way down to around $150. I wasn't concerned, because that same week the entire stock market went off a cliff, and TSLA rebounded faster than everything else to be above $190, and then over $205 before long. It still went to $325 or so, and that makes me _'right'_, I guess. I predicted a long time ago that it would be fun to watch Jim Cramer's head explode on live television when TSLA goes over $450. We're still waiting for that redux of a scene from the movie _'SCANNERS' (1981)_, but I'm still looking forward to it.


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Seems like Jonas just downgraded it as his price was obviously out of date. Either needed to make an accurate Model3 prediction and face the wrath of his clients if he was wrong or just downgrade and wait for some news.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

BigBri said:


> Seems like Jonas just downgraded it as his price was obviously out of date. Either needed to make an accurate Model3 prediction and face the wrath of his clients if he was wrong or just downgrade and wait for some news.


Either way lost some credibility in the process... IMHO...


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> Either way lost some credibility in the process... IMHO...


Very much agree. He brought up competition but the competitors have been there. It's not a new thing. Just needed a few excuses to explain his downgrade until he can model out something more accurately.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

*Morgan Stanley Downgrades Tesla on Competition Concerns -- Market Talk*
5/15/17, 6:04 PM
18:04 ET - Tesla (TSLA) stock was downgraded on concerns it faces increasing competition from tech players like Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN). "The bull case on Tesla is that it can become the next Amazon or Apple," analyst Adam Jonas said as he cut the automaker to equalweight. "We see such firms as competitors ultimately. We question whether the risks of going head-to-head vs. the tech giants is sufficiently discounted in the price." ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
05-15-17 1804ET
Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Competition from Apple & Amazon... WTF?


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## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

Jonas is out to lunch on this one. I think he got into his weed stash


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Jonas just wanted to buy a few more shares, but thought the price was a wee bit too high.


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## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

garsh said:


> Jonas just wanted to buy a few more shares, but thought the price was a wee bit too high.


I need to become one of these "analysts" so I can manipulate the stock market to my advantage as well.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Now that's what I call 'fake news'


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

A bit of 'bull talk' on an otherwise bearish Street day... 

http://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/05/16/...are-going-way-higher-two-experts-predict.html


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

well, that's a nice way to start out the day


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## Johnm6875 (Nov 14, 2016)

MelindaV said:


> well, that's a nice way to start out the day
> View attachment 1664


An even better finish.


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

Cool. That means it's time for me to visit the comments section on one of my favorite YouTube videos...





Yes. This guy actually had an early, pre-IPO segment of his show specifically dedicated to talking trash about TSLA. No insight, no intuition, no vision.

_"After it comes public, Tesla's a SELL, SELL, SELL! You don't want to own this stock. You don't want to lease it. Heck... You don't wanna... You shouldn't even rent the darn thing." -- Jim Cramer_​


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## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

If only I had bought then. Cramer's lost a great deal of other people's money. 



Red Sage said:


> Cool. That means it's time for me to visit the comments section on one of my favorite YouTube videos...
> 
> Yes. This guy actually had an early, pre-IPO segment of his show specifically dedicated to talking trash about TSLA. No insight, no intuition, no vision.
> 
> _"After it comes public, Tesla's a SELL, SELL, SELL! You don't want to own this stock. You don't want to lease it. Heck... You don't wanna... You shouldn't even rent the darn thing." -- Jim Cramer_​


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## Gilberto Pe-Curto (Oct 20, 2016)

"To the infinity and beyond !!!!"


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

The jump yesterday I believe was from the news article - Steve Wozniak says Tesla is leading self-driving tech, “I’m going to bet on Tesla”

That and maybe the upcoming event on Friday. 

Now. What if there is no announcement on Friday. Will the stock dip in the short term until they finally announce the date in July? 

It would be nice to plan the party in July.

I'm seriously long on this baby but I'd like to trade the swings a bit and bring some cash home for the kids. 

Anyone else have thoughts on playing the swings on this baby?


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## Johnm6875 (Nov 14, 2016)

Steve C said:


> The jump yesterday I believe was from the news article - Steve Wozniak says Tesla is leading self-driving tech, "I'm going to bet on Tesla"
> 
> That and maybe the upcoming event on Friday.
> 
> ...


Could the recent lift be caused by the "shorts" capitulating and unwinding their positions now that the Model 3 production timing seems secure? They have a long ways to go, as I understand it. If so, this might alter buyer/seller action away from the expected. 
Good luck brave soul.


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

Johnm6875 said:


> Could the recent lift be caused by the "shorts" capitulating and unwinding their positions now that the Model 3 production timing seems secure? They have a long ways to go, as I understand it. If so, this might alter buyer/seller action away from the expected.
> Good luck brave soul.


Yes, good point. There will be a lot more of that come July. I expected $340 before July but with a month left.... I can see some sideways trading for a bit. Unless there is something big tomorrow, which I am hoping for.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Toyota trying to go their own EV way...?

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN18U05E


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## Johnm6875 (Nov 14, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> Toyota trying to go their own EV way...?
> 
> http://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN18U05E


". . . Toyota's strategy to develop and market electric cars as part of the company's efforts to keep pace with tightening global emissions regulations."
Compliance only? This doesn't sound like they are convinced electrification is the future. 
Also, their analysts missed a pretty nice run up on the share price. We had a dip in the share price from August through November, makes me wonder if their selling had any impact.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Fabulous new ride in an otherwise less positive day on the Street...
$350 likely before the final reveal!!


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Interesting Tuesday ahead, as reported by Teslarati...:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/871803703950553092


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Need to find a window to get back in.. thought I was smart selling at 337 when it was the new alltime high. New lesson, only sell before quarterly reports .


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## Jazmo (Apr 24, 2017)

Jazmo said:


> In an interview back in March 2016 she (Andrea James) was suggesting a $355 price target. Hopefully it'll get there soon





Steve C said:


> I think you will only have to wait for July for that.


ummm, try June 7th ;-)


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Jazmo said:


> ummm, try June 7th ;-)


It's still June 6th over here, mate.


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## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

BigBri said:


> Need to find a window to get back in.. thought I was smart selling at 337 when it was the new alltime high. New lesson, only sell before quarterly reports .


I feel your pain. I did the same thing at $227 thinking $300 was going to be a fall back point. Fortunately, I was patient for once and I was able to get back in but I did loose quite of bit of potential profit but C'Est la Vie as they say.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

garsh said:


> It's still June 6th over here, mate.


You're right, @garsh , though it went down at the end of the day session, it hit close to $360... today !!


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## Jazmo (Apr 24, 2017)

garsh said:


> It's still June 6th over here, mate.


Oops! Indeed that was the case. My excuse if that I should already have been in bed ;-)


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

_*$370 *_?!?! So, this means + 9% in 5 days and close to 16% in one month... _Are we on a roll_, or what?


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## Curtish8892 (Apr 24, 2016)

This is madness. I do not own any stock but I hope this helps with me getting a Model 3 in the coming months.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> _*$370 *_?!?! So, this means + 9% in 5 days and close to 16% in one month... _Are we on a roll_, or what?
> 
> View attachment 1768
> View attachment 1769


I think its thanks to me selling about half of mine when it then hit an all time high of around $336 a week or so ago, and figured it was on it's way back down. I may have been a little hasty in deciding to do that


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

MelindaV said:


> I think its thanks to me selling about half of mine when it then hit an all time high of around $336 a week or so ago, and figured it was on it's way back down. I may have been a little hasty in deciding to do that


You weren't the only one that tried to play the swing. I held on till it hit 359.... Had to make a quick decision to buy back in. Glad I did. Wow. I lost a few bucks on the flip. One of these times I'm going to get it right lol. Who knew?!


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## Badback (Apr 7, 2016)

Where have all the shorters gone, long time passing. (sing it)


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## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

Bit of a roller coaster $376 to 360.24 in the span of an hour and a half. looks like it's on the way back up. I was expecting a small correction, I may have played the swing right for once.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017...esla-inc-stock-and-never-sell.aspx?yptr=yahoo
10 reasons to NEVER sell $TSLA


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

MelindaV said:


> https://www.fool.com/investing/2017...esla-inc-stock-and-never-sell.aspx?yptr=yahoo
> 10 reasons to NEVER sell $TSLA


I love me some TSLA, but I will most definitely be selling that bad boy at some point. Gotta make me some money.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

It's Confirmed: Without Government Subsidies, Tesla Sales Implode
Boy, it is rare to find a journalist that digs deeply into the issues to find the whole story instead of merely spouting simple facts that support their pre-determined hypothesis. As you can guess from the headline, this is not one of those journalists. 

It talks about how sales of electric cars cratered in Denmark after subsidies were phased out. It then concludes that subsidies are necessary for Tesla to sell vehicles. Nice, simple fact, and nice simple conclusion.

But boy, is he ignoring the details in the data.








Sure, you could conclude that, yes, sales did tank when the subsidies were removed.

But I see a different story.

I see that sales were unnaturally high in the second half of 2015, as people wanted to hurry up and get a car before subsidies were removed. As expected, sales tanked for a couple of quarters afterward. Of course they would, because the people who would have bought during that time moved forward their purchase dates. Tesla sold 3-4 quarters worth of additional cars in the second half of 2015.

Additionally, Teslas (and electrics in general) are expensive. They are luxury items. When somebody releases a compelling, less-expensive vehicle (like Model 3) in Denmark, I think sales will once again start to climb, even as incentives are reduced. Time will tell.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4080920-400000-tesla-model-3-cars-2018-just-possible
400k cars in 2018 is not possible, because NUMI is 50 years old and there is no evidence Tesla has installed more/new robots.... so can't be any better than the old GM/Toyota days and probably worse.


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## Badback (Apr 7, 2016)

garsh said:


> It's Confirmed: Without Government Subsidies, Tesla Sales Implode
> Boy, it is rare to find a journalist that digs deeply into the issues to find the whole story instead of merely spouting simple facts that support their pre-determined hypothesis. As you can guess from the headline, this is not one of those journalists.
> 
> It talks about how sales of electric cars cratered in Denmark after subsidies were phased out. It then concludes that subsidies are necessary for Tesla to sell vehicles. Nice, simple fact, and nice simple conclusion.
> ...


Let's eat his liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Man! Do we have a winner, or what?!

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/06/11/10-reasons-to-buy-tesla-inc-stock-and-never-sell.aspx


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> Man! Do we have a winner, or what?!
> 
> https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/06/11/10-reasons-to-buy-tesla-inc-stock-and-never-sell.aspx


Houston really is cutting in on your M3OC time isn't it?


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Path to one grand? How grand! 

http://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/06/13/ron-baron-says-tesla-stock-will-soar-to-1000-by-2020.html


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Not really written by an analyst, yet interesting perspective on how wrong most have been, and for many reasons...!

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/06/18/now-tesla-naysayers/


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> Not really written by an analyst, yet interesting perspective on how wrong most have been, and for many reasons...!


I think you meant to link this article:
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/06/18/now-tesla-naysayers/


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

garsh said:


> I think you meant to link this article:
> https://cleantechnica.com/2017/06/18/now-tesla-naysayers/


Correct! Thx! Post edited accordingly...


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

All kinds of sophisticated measures to essentially say that the trend on TSLA is 'bullish'... Most of us could have told the writer the same, no? 

http://www.livetradingnews.com/tesla-inc-nasdaqtsla-model-3-battery-gigafactory-46119.html


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## Badback (Apr 7, 2016)

Betting against Tesla is like betting against sunrise.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

I know TSLA is trading at near record high levels historical levels, yet referencing the Feb. 17 brief stabilization as a reason for quoting that 'the stock is low on power' feels _notably shortsighted_ a mere 4-5 weeks away from the launch as planned of the most paradigm changing EV in the history of the car industry, no?! 

http://investorplace.com/2017/06/tesla-inc-tsla-stock-low-power/


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Buy on the dips, right?

What are the chances that TSLA would crash in the next 4-5 weeks?


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Safe Daddy Driver said:


> Buy on the dips, right?
> 
> What are the chances that TSLA would crash in the next 4-5 weeks?


Right.
If anyone is looking for an illustration of what a _rhetorical_ question is, SDD just gave us a perfect example!


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Isn't it a particularly telling illustration of the level of _insanity_ I have reached when I find myself disappointed (I didn't mean concerned...) to see TSLA lose $26 in a couple of days, when the stock has gained ten time that much since the beginning of the year?! 
And I don't have own any share... 

Come on, Mike, get a grip!!


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## Akilae (Jan 16, 2017)

Well and I thought it would be a good idea to buy on (early) monday .


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Akilae said:


> Well and I thought it would be a good idea to buy on (early) monday .


How about _today_??


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## Akilae (Jan 16, 2017)

Isn't always a good day to buy TSLA (no it isn't) ^^. Well my hopes are on a smooth production start and I guess whatever losses I had will be unimportant if Tesla is really able to start in July. Like @TrevP told in the July Surprise article, I really think that a start in July can give Tesla a good momentum.


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## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

Akilae said:


> Isn't always a good day to buy TSLA (no it isn't) ^^. Well my hopes are on a smooth production start and I guess whatever losses I had will be unimportant if Tesla is really able to start in July. Like @TrevP told in the July Surprise article, I really think that a start in July can give Tesla a good momentum.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/880726267015856129


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## Akilae (Jan 16, 2017)

TrevP said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/880726267015856129


Thank you for making my day


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Tesla May Hold the Secret Plans to Saving the Auto Industry
TLDR: self driving -> cars will become a commodity -> rush to lower prices -> manufacturers go under -> ride-sharing companies will end up buying manufacturers.

I don't buy it.

Looking at history, rich people didn't use limousine services day-to-day - they hired their own driver, and owned their own cars for that driver to drive. I think we're going to see a modern version of this model. The type of people who currently own cars will own their own self-driving cars. They don't want to wait for a taxi to appear. They don't want to worry about the availability of a taxi. They don't want to worry that the previous occupant just threw up in the car that shows up.

Autonomous ride sharing will only be a hit in cities, mostly with people who currently don't own a car & rely on public transit/biking/walking.


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## Badback (Apr 7, 2016)

Sharing a car is like sharing a hanky.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Interesting historical perspective on this milestone time!

http://www.teslarati.com/tsla-one-day-7th-anniversary-wall-street/


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