# TSLA Stock Price Discussion - 2020 Q3-Q4



## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

Source: https://ir.tesla.com/node/20841/html

Tesla Q2 2020 Vehicle Production & Deliveries

_In the second quarter, we produced over 82,000 vehicles and delivered approximately 90,650 vehicles._​_ . . . _​_ While our main factory in Fremont was shut down for much of the quarter, we have successfully ramped production back to prior levels._​
So that explains the stock increase this morning.

Bob Wilson


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

I'm a fan of Rob Maurer's _Tesla Daily_ Youtubes:





They are short and fact based. Embedded in this video, 1:58, is a report that S&P500 indexed funds will need to buy about 25 million shares of the 147.62 million 'float' TSLA shares, ~17%. This is even greater than the 15 million SHORT shares. My expectation based on 'supply and demand' is this will be a good time to take profits.

Friday, TSLA closed at $1544. Fortunately, I had jumped my sell price from $1518 to $2500. But I suspect even $2500 is too low. Joining the S&P500 will put a lot of margin pressure on the SHORTs who will have to cover their TSLA borrowing. Potentially we're looking, best case, at 40 million shares needed out of 147.6 m in a very short, 10-14 day, interval, ~27%.

The historical VW SHORT squeeze quadrupled the stock in a very sharp spike. There was a run-up but then it went nuts. So I'm mulling what is a reasonably high sell price, a profit taking, and then holding the balance waiting for the inevitable drop . . . and my buy back. This is a doable but not a trivial modeling problem. If done right, I should multiply the number of shares sold by the ratio of the selling and subsequent stock decrease.

One wild card is the Tesla board could decide it is time to let the SHORTs fund the Tesla expansion. I hope they don't because we've seen people with too much money doing foolish things. For example, I went to the casino a month ago with $400 and returned with $900. I'd been up to $1,200 before my last craps session.

A subtle, secondary effect is the S&P500 funds will need to raise capital to buy TSLA. This should 'chill' their prices and I still have a boring, 401k fund. I may shift those funds from a very safe, short term bonds to the 401k version of an S&P500 fund after a suitable pause. Their local minimum will follow the TSLA local peak.

The old saying is: "Longs make money. Shorts make money. But hogs get slaughtered."

Bob Wilson

ps. I'm a retired engineer, not a financial analysts. This is my plan sharing only because these effects are independent of my trivially small interest.


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

Autoline.TV, their Autoline Daily report included:

_U.S. CAR MARKET HEADED FOR DEEP TROUBLE_​_The U.S. auto market could be headed into deep trouble. A month ago, GM's CEO warned . . . The virus is surging again, and Cox Automotive reports that 71% of consumers are very concerned or extremely concerned about the surge. Deloitte reports that *one out of three Americans who are still employed are afraid of losing their jobs.* And *nearly half of all car owners say they're going to keep the car they've got instead of buying a new one. *Deloitte says a V-shaped recovery is increasingly looking far-fetched._​
In contrast, Reuters reported, "Tesla Vehicle Registrations In California Dropped To A Half In Q2: Report":

_(Reuters) - Tesla Inc's (TSLA.O) vehicle registrations nearly halved in the U.S. state of California during the second quarter, according to data from Cross-Sell, a marketing research firm that collates title and registration data._​
This is called 'Cherry Picking' and used by unethical journalists to mislead by omission.

Bob Wilson


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1300811597741522945

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1300817380868845568

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1300819299817254912


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

This provides a buffer for the S&P500 so those fund managers won’t have to bid-up an excessive price while providing capital needed to expand TSLA.

Bob Wilson


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

*Softbank identified as the 'Nasdaq whale' that bought billions in stock options, betting on higher prices for the biggest names in tech*

According to the Wall Street Journal, SoftBank had made regulatory filings showing it bought nearly $4 billion in shares of Amazon, Microsoft, and Netflix, plus a stake in Tesla.


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## TomT (Apr 1, 2019)

Love the car, would never buy the stock (though there is some in my ETFs)... I'm too risk adverse for that... I've done very well over the years with stocks that were not like a roller coaster ride...


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## JMON (Aug 21, 2016)

I'm long.

Sure the stock will take a hit because Tesla wasn't included in S&P 500 (this time). Hopefully in December they'll be re-evaluated into the S&P 500.


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

JMON said:


> ...
> Sure the stock will take a hit because Tesla wasn't included in S&P 500 (this time). Hopefully in December they'll be re-evaluated into the S&P 500.


Speculation on my part, the old saying, "Pay me now or pay me later" comes to mind. TSLA closing at $418.32 on Friday could easily be much higher, $600-$700, when Giga Austin and Berlin are coming online. I suspect today's high market cap led the S&P500 to defer adding TSLA this time. But waiting three months during a Tesla building spree increases the risk of even higher price as time marches on.

Bob Wilson


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

I fully agree with Cathie. Traditional analysts' methods are geared towards mature companies working in known fields. Such methods don't take market disruption into account.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1310400554556940288


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## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

Long here. Was in a few years ago then sold and now I'm back in again. TSLA is a growth company, so much potential that hasn't been realized yet


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## victor (Jun 24, 2016)

garsh said:


> I fully agree with Cathie. Traditional analysts' methods are geared towards mature companies working in known fields. Such methods don't take market disruption into account.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1310400554556940288




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1310480901135126528


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

I was ignoring that little "oops" in her post.


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## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

I had a forgotten limit order to pick up some shares at $360 that triggered on Friday then it closed at $407. That didn’t upset me at all!


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## gary in NY (Dec 2, 2018)

I'm contemplating adding more shares. May have to sell something else though.


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## JWardell (May 9, 2016)

garsh said:


> I was ignoring that little "oops" in her post.


That's not little. And if she missed the blatant new car announcement, maybe that explains why so many other investors missed it and thought battery day was a "failure" when it was anything but. It was nothing but an indicator to massive amounts of future revenue. Perhaps it was too technical for them


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## gary in NY (Dec 2, 2018)

JWardell said:


> That's not little. And if she missed the blatant new car announcement, maybe that explains why so many other investors missed it and thought battery day was a "failure" when it was anything but. It was nothing but an indicator to massive amounts of future revenue. Perhaps it was too technical for them


That's quite an important miss for someone so vocally bullish on Tesla. I watched the presentation and thought it was quite clear they were taking about a new model. If she didn't watch it, whoever did her briefing botched it badly. So much so that Musk had to clear it up.

The over-hype of Battery Day by nearly everyone since March had set unrealistic expectations, and took the edge off of the revolutionary discoveries and changes presented. It's going to be amazing when the implementation of all these new developments is completed.


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## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319010114637041664


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## JWardell (May 9, 2016)

__
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/jvgnu6/tesla_to_join_sp_500/gcjyt19


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## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

Dammit! And I was thinking of picking up a few more shares these past few trading days....


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

I was getting worried that my recent purchase of shares at $426 was going to end up ill-timed.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Well, there goes $500...


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## lightningJoe (Dec 7, 2020)

I want to buy some Tesla Stock. Is it a right time or wait while price back to $500?


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## gary in NY (Dec 2, 2018)

lightningJoe said:


> I want to buy some Tesla Stock. Is it a right time or wait while price back to $500?


The run up to S&P inclusion may be responsible for the current surge in price. After that, who knows. We will then have the impact of the 4th qtr results to consider.

It's very hard to figure on a short term basis. These recent prices are not supported by the results from business operations. But, TSLA does not follow most of the rules. One rule that seems to hold is that the stock is not for the risk adverse. You could always invest in a crystal ball.


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## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

Well, its down to around $609 now so a much better buying opp than when it was in the 640-650's. Could plunge further as more naysayer articles come out to spook folks.


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## lightningJoe (Dec 7, 2020)

$590 now the line, when worth to buy. I will wait 1-2 days.


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## gary in NY (Dec 2, 2018)

lightningJoe said:


> $590 now the line, when worth to buy. I will wait 1-2 days.


You may see that $500 sooner than we thought.


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## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

Not a stock *price*, but rather a company value (price x all shares):

https://twitter.com/co_tesla


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## iChris93 (Feb 3, 2017)

Klaus-rf said:


> Not a stock *price*, but rather a company value (price x all shares):
> 
> https://twitter.com/co_tesla


What are you trying to link here?


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## victor (Jun 24, 2016)

iChris93 said:


> What are you trying to link here?


I think this.


__
http://instagr.am/p/CIjGlT_D3tT/


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

So the daily dip in TSLA, was blamed on Apple announcement of a 2024 car. BUT the Chinese stocks ‘went up’ apparently immune to Apple’s plans. Yet the analyst barely mentioned TSLA joining the S&P 500 and the expected softening of demand.

Bob Wilson


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## gary in NY (Dec 2, 2018)

Anyone else concerned about the steep rise in the stock price this week?

One possibility, according to Rob (Tesla Daily), is that the S&P tracking funds are now buying in after sitting on the sidelines since the S&P inclusion. Then you have the several broker updates raising the target prices and performance outlook. There could also be the piling on of retail investors following the money.

I guess I'm somewhat old fashioned, but I prefer a more stable and fundamental basis for a stock valuation. Don't get me wrong, I am delighted with the gains TSLA has made, but the market value of my relatively few shares now exceeds the value of everything else in my personal portfolio, which includes Home Depot, Wendy's, Wal-Mart, Dell and others. I'm long term, so generally not looking to sell, but taking some profit is becoming more appealing.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

gary in NY said:


> Anyone else concerned about the steep rise in the stock price this week?


Is "concerned" a synonym for "ecstatic" in Woodstock NY?
If so, then yes! I've very, very concerned!


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## gary in NY (Dec 2, 2018)

garsh said:


> Is "concerned" a synonym for "ecstatic" in Woodstock NY?
> If so, then yes! I've very, very concerned!


The phase "The bigger they are, the harder they fall" comes to mind.

I'm very happy with my newly found riches (on paper anyway), but I suppose if it came to that, I'd be no worse off than I was a few months ago. Can you imaging how a short seller feels if they have to cover today?


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## iChris93 (Feb 3, 2017)

gary in NY said:


> The phase "The bigger they are, the harder they fall" comes to mind.


If you sell now, there's no risk of a fall.


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## Nom (Oct 30, 2018)

I didn’t put much in but now it is a lot. Would pay for my car. I’m letting it ride as I don’t need it. All gravy. But damn, I do feel this is irrational.


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## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

There will certainly be a pullback of some sort in the near future, though nothing atypical. I’m always just a bit worried that Elon will tweet something like ‘our cars never actually even existed!’ And the stock will plunge like crazy! He’s been a lot better the last year or so but I still worry a little.


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## gary in NY (Dec 2, 2018)

Chamath Palihapitiya says not to sell. There is still 2 to 3x growth potential in the stock price. He says he doesn't know why people would want to sell something that works. Much more disruption to come. CNBC 1/8/2021.


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## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

Looks like Berlin may start spitting stuff out in the fairly near future which only helps to keep the growth story moving forward.


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## W.W. (Jan 26, 2019)

We are still in a strong upward growth trend.


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## khorton (Aug 20, 2019)

Whatever you do, do not calculate how much your shares would be worth today if you had put the money into TSLA instead of buying your Tesla.


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