# Time to start buying TSLA? Or get out before the crash?



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

TSLA has taken a huge hit the past two days. I'm guessing this is due mainly to the recent Model X crash, fire, and death, along with secondary effects of Uber's recent self-driving-related death, and possibly also Jaguar's introduction of the I-Pace.

I was already expecting TSLA to take a hit due to their inability to meet the latest Model 3 production goals at the end of Q1. So I have been tentatively planning for the stock to drop in the beginning of April, and I was going to jump in. But it appears that the shorts saw an opportunity with all of this current negative news, and are driving the stock ever lower, breaking down past the ~$300 support level. As of this post, it's down to 266.

I'm trying to decide if the shorts are going to drive the price down even lower before cashing in and cutting their losses (which will drive the price back up). I think I'm going to wait another few days before pulling the trigger and buying more shares, but it sure is tempting at the current price.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

well, I thought it was time to buy 2 days ago when I added another share around 299 (because I am that kind of stock buyer...). First thought this morning was adding another couple shares if it drops down to $260.

I originally began buying shares of TSLA shortly after putting in my reservation. Have sold some when it was in the high $300s and bought back some when in low $300s (mostly have had less than 20 shares for perspective). It has always been with the thought that this would essentially be part of my downpayment savings and never planned to make a killing on it... but over the last two years, have somewhat changed my mindset and not sure I really want to cash them all out when my car is ready for delivery. At the least will keep a few shares around. But certainly there is no way I would be selling now. The combined average of the shares I currently have is right around $300 per, and would not sell unless well over that (Ideally, WELL OVER )


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## rareohs (Sep 15, 2017)

I bought at 330, tempted to buy more but also concerned about the possibility that maybe it slides a lot more.... uggh


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## Brokedoc (May 28, 2017)

I had warned in another thread a few weeks ago about buying TSLA as I saw an impending correction in the price. I see warning signs that the TSLA correction is not over yet. Their recent corporate bond offerings have dropped to 89 cents on the dollar as of this morning. This may become a vicious down cycle if Elon can't post real ramp progress or if he should need any additional short term funding for production expansion.

My feeling is that we need to keep a close eye on the production numbers that Tesla will post next week and as "insiders" we can keep an eye on VIN reports and Bloomberg production tracker (although I think that might miss some Canadian Model 3 numbers due to self reporting bias).

I suspect May-June will be a better time to load up again.


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## Brokedoc (May 28, 2017)

I don't want to toot my own horn but it's very rare when I'm right so I figure I have to do it.

My previous post was on 2/22 when TSLA stock closed 346.17 - almost at the peak and almost $100 more than where we are now. https://teslaownersonline.com/threads/buying-stock.6050/#post-76128

If I could predict the future, I would be a multi-gazillionaire and I would buy everyone on this forum a Model X. Unfortunately, I'm not but I still think it's not quite the right setting to get back into TSLA.

Remember. A broken clock shows the right time twice every day.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Brokedoc said:


> I suspect May-June will be a better time to load up again.


I fully expect Tesla to announce refreshed S & X before June, so I wouldn't want to wait that long. I'm thinking April-May myself.


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## Brokedoc (May 28, 2017)

garsh said:


> I fully expect Tesla to announce refreshed S & X before June, so I wouldn't want to wait that long. I'm thinking April-May myself.


I had also thought that a S/X refesh would come soon but if you look at the current configurator, the interior images still show the old design and a June delivery date.

You would expect the configurator to reflect the car that the buyer is purchasing and therefore I don't expect a refresh until July at the earliest.


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## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

Brokedoc said:


> I had also thought that a S/X refesh would come soon but if you look at the current configurator, the interior images still show the old design and a June delivery date.
> 
> You would expect the configurator to reflect the car that the buyer is purchasing and therefore I don't expect a refresh until July at the earliest.


The alcantara on my Model 3 disagrees with you.


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## Petra (Sep 12, 2017)

garsh said:


> I fully expect Tesla to announce refreshed S & X before June, so I wouldn't want to wait that long. I'm thinking April-May myself.


Maybe I'm being too pessimistic, but I wonder if Tesla even has the organizational bandwidth/resources to overhaul the S and/or X right now... I mean, they're still struggling to get the Model 3 out the door in quantity (Elon noted that even the Model 3 software work was/is such a drain that it prevented/delayed meaningful development for the S and X), they've got the Y, Roadster, and Semi programs going, Gigafactory 1 & 2, retail expansion, service expansion, still shaking down things after the Solar City merger, etc. Tesla has a lot of irons in the fire right now.

Why divert resources for a refresh when demand is still high?

On the other hand, from what Elon has stated in calls, they're likely going to need to redesign the S & X to improve manufacturing efficiency, both for a margin bump but also so that they can continue to meet future demand without too much expansion.


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## Brokedoc (May 28, 2017)

Lovesword said:


> The alcantara on my Model 3 disagrees with you.


I had thought about that before...

It's really hard to tell the materials based on the configurator pics but are we sure the configurator didn't change before the alcantara was delivered? Nobody was really looking out for the change in materials so it could have changed and nobody noticed.

A major interior refresh is very easy to spot on pictures and that would be a huge deal if someone got the new design but preferred the old design. For me, I much prefer the older power monopost 2nd row as compared to the current manual fold flat 2nd row in the new Model X.


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## Audrey (Aug 2, 2017)

If you guys would buy, I'd appreciate it.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Brokedoc said:


> I had also thought that a S/X refesh would come soon but if you look at the current configurator, the interior images still show the old design and a June delivery date.
> 
> You would expect the configurator to reflect the car that the buyer is purchasing and therefore I don't expect a refresh until July at the earliest.


I don't expect the configurator to be updated until May/June.

They're likely not completely sure what parts of the retooling they'll have ready in time for June delivery. They don't want another alcantaragate on their hands if they can avoid it.
"Osborne effect". Sales for current inventory and CPO S/X would dry up for 2-3 months if they announce it now.
For anybody who already placed an order for June delivery, they can simply just offer to "upgrade" their order to the refreshed version for free. For the handful of freaks who decline the offer, they can afford to hand-build a few S with old spare parts.



Petra said:


> Maybe I'm being too pessimistic, but I wonder if Tesla even has the organizational bandwidth/resources to overhaul the S and/or X right now.


That's certainly a valid concern. But weigh that concern against the following thought:

Tesla is still anti-selling the 3. They can afford to for as long as demand outstrips supply. But when they reach 5000 cars/week, they'll soon have to stop this practice. The problem is that - in many ways - the 3 is a better vehicle than the S. They need to update the S and X to remove at least the glaring deficiencies, such as the old cpu (done), the lack of storage, cupholders, and phone charging, the phone-as-a -key capability (needed for future autonomous driving), and maybe even add in the 3's climate control "vents".


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## SoFlaModel3 (Apr 15, 2017)

Model Y announcement coming soon to save the day....?


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

At the risk of saying, "blah, blah, blah normal stock advice about market timing, blah, blah,blah," I would say:

Don't buy any TSLA you can't afford to lose
Yes, they are having a sale on it right now
I don't think anything has structurally happened to limit Tesla's future (this is key; decide for yourself on this)
As my wife (Stanford MBA) said today: "People love the products. That's huge."
When everyone is very negative (not making 2500/wk by end of March, Model X wreck), it's a good time to buy
It might go down more (don't forget, the stock will also follow the general demand for tech stocks, so a NASDAQ drop is a TSLA drop)
Don't buy TSLA if you're going to feel the need to track it every day, and get anxious if it drops.

This is a good time to place a long-term bet on Tesla, if you think Tesla has a bright future. But don't buy stress; if you can't be long term and casual about it, stay back. Never purchase worry, you can always get it for free.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

John said:


> Don't buy any TSLA you can't afford to lose.


Yep. This is not a retirement investment. This is a lottery ticket with better odds (<meme>the lowest bar in the world</meme>) and less upside.


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

garsh said:


> Yep. This is not a retirement investment. This is a lottery ticket with better odds (<meme>the lowest bar in the world</meme>) and less upside.


Yep. Helpful to keep in mind that the odds change dramatically depending on your timeline. But assuming you're bullish on Tesla's market positions and ability to execute (eventually):

The expected value in six months is-and I'm making this up-+/- 50%. You could lose half your money, even if Tesla eventually does well.
The expected value in three years is +100%.

Bright future. Bumpy road.


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## svusa11 (Oct 27, 2017)

I view today's meltdown is basically part of rotation out of tech sector. There isn't any new news that Market didn't know in advance. Everyone knows Model 3 production is about 6 month-1 year behind, everyone knows Tesla needs to raise more Money to fund their expansion plans.

I added TSLA to existing position at $300, again today at $253, I'll add more @ $235 and @200. As long as you have appetite to hold stock for 5-10 years, it is a strong brand name.

Worst case scenario, Apple has tons of cash and no futuristic product so wouldn't be that hard for Apple to shell out some cash for Tesla.

PS: Never put all your eggs in one basket. Be neither on the bull side or nor on the bear side but be on the winning side.


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## Brokedoc (May 28, 2017)

svusa11 said:


> I view today's meltdown is basically part of rotation out of tech sector. There isn't any new news that Market didn't know in advance. Everyone knows Model 3 production is about 6 month-1 year behind, everyone knows Tesla needs to raise more Money to fund their expansion plans.
> 
> I added TSLA to existing position at $300, again today at $253, I'll add more @ $235 and @200. As long as you have appetite to hold stock for 5-10 years, it is a strong brand name.
> 
> ...


Looks like you're putting in buy limits at Fibonacci levels. Smart. Nobody can explain why technical trading works but it does.

FYI - another particularly ominous article from CNN about how Tesla can easily get into a cash crunch. http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/28/news/companies/tesla-model-3-cash-crunch/index.html

Hopefully they're wrong but maybe the whole alcantara change was due to this supplier payment issue. I know some crazy terms that can be demanded by some companies. The suppliers know its like musical chairs. The payment terms get longer and longer until the company declares bankruptcy like Toys R Us and then the suppliers still owed money get hosed.


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

Brokedoc said:


> Nobody can explain why technical trading works but it does.


Dude, just... no.


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## Ecyrd (Sep 14, 2017)

Moody's dropped Tesla's credit rating. Many large institutions have rules against holding stock with this new rating. Hence the large number of sales and dropping stock price. Crashes have some effect, but stocks don't drop so much unless there's lots of sellers.

I don't think we know if all of the large institutions have sold all of their Tesla yet - if so, the stock is likely to stabilize. If they continue dumping the stock, it's going down even more.


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## svusa11 (Oct 27, 2017)

Brokedoc said:


> Looks like you're putting in buy limits at Fibonacci levels. Smart. Nobody can explain why technical trading works but it does.


well.. I'm betting more on what I'm seeing, people are desperate to get Model 3 despite of all negativity around it. How often something like this happens? that too in automobile industry?? As as a Tesla shareholder, That's my quick fundamental analysis


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

If you think the stock is undervalued:
1) If you're psychic, wait until you forecast that the stock will hit it's lowest point, then buy.
2) If you're not psychic... buy now.

If you don't think the stock is undervalued... don't buy.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> 1) If you're psychic, wait until you forecast that the stock will hit it's lowest point, then buy.


I just think we're going to get some more bad news before things start looking up again. So I'm going to sit tight for another week, maybe two, before buying some more.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

garsh said:


> I just think we're going to get some more bad news before things start looking up again. So I'm going to sit tight for another week, maybe two, before buying some more.


Additional bad news #1: The wrecked X was in autopilot mode.

Tesla's lucky this was revealed on a holiday Friday, otherwise I think the stock would have already taken a huge hit. I still think it'll drop again when the market opens next week.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

It'll be telling how the market reacts. If it doesn't dip significantly, it's a big sign that pretty much everyone who's wanted to sell or short the stock already has.


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## SoFlaModel3 (Apr 15, 2017)

garsh said:


> Additional bad news #1: The wrecked X was in autopilot mode.
> 
> Tesla's lucky this was revealed on a holiday Friday, otherwise I think the stock would have already taken a huge hit. I still think it'll drop again when the market opens next week.


I expect it to go down Monday sadly.


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## Ecyrd (Sep 14, 2017)

KarenRei said:


> It'll be telling how the market reacts. If it doesn't dip significantly, it's a big sign that pretty much everyone who's wanted to sell or short the stock already has.


28% of TSLA stock is still being held by short sellers. So lots of people still betting against Tesla.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Lol, the shorts are "rallying the troops" over at Seeking Alpha, with a desperate plea for everyone to urgently get their short positions in:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4160353-time-go-wobbly-tesla-shorts

They even have this hilarious overlay of Tesla's stock with Enron's, which is something you can do with literally any two stocks just by picking your times and scaling factors.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

So, time to see what that huge bout of weekend anti-Tesla hype manages to do.


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## Guy Weathersby (Jun 22, 2016)

Bought some more at 248 and change Own a lot more Tesla than I normally hold of any individual stock But I think that it is a good buy. 

I have a very rough formula for figuring out how much to buy, imagine that the company goes under and you lose all the money. If that would ruin your life, then you buying too much. If it would not ruin your week you probably should not bother 

Actually, with Tesla, even if I didn't own stock it would ruin my week if they don't make it


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

Ecyrd said:


> Moody's dropped Tesla's credit rating. Many large institutions have rules against holding stock with this new rating.
> ...
> I don't think we know if all of the large institutions have sold all of their Tesla yet - if so, the stock is likely to stabilize. If they continue dumping the stock, it's going down even more.


I've been thinking along these lines too. Conveniently, the first quarter just ended, so soon enough we should have a better idea of how institutional holdings have changed. The one I've been keeping my eye on is Fidelity, who, after years of accumulating TSLA, started gradually reducing their holdings in 2017, even as the share price continued upward through the 300s. Based on their SEC 13G filing in February, my guess is that this trend continued through the first quarter.

Broadly speaking, I think a lot of professional asset managers saw TSLA as "fully-valued" (at best) once its market cap achieved parity with GM last year, and started re-allocating their funds appropriately around that same time. From a risk-management standpoint, that was the sensible thing to do. By contrast, as an individual investor who happens to view Tesla as more than "just a car company," I have different viewpoints, metrics, and objectives... but inasmuch as I am not responsible for managing (read: protecting) a multi-billion dollar stock position, the degree to which my personal analysis of Tesla is "valid" or "correct" matters relatively little, at least in the short term.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

And... BOOM 

https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Tesla+(TSLA)+Says+Q1+production+totaled+34,494+vehicles,+9,766+were+Model+3/14014203.html

---------------------------------------------

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries

Q1 production totaled 34,494 vehicles, a 40% increase from Q4 and by far the most productive quarter in Tesla history. 24,728 were Model S and Model X, *and 9,766 were Model 3*. The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the *fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era*. If this rate of growth continues, it will *exceed even that of Ford and the Model T*.

We were able to double the weekly Model 3 production rate during the quarter by rapidly addressing production and supply chain bottlenecks, including several short factory shutdowns to upgrade equipment.

*In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles*. *In the next seven days, we expect to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles and 2,000 Model 3 vehicles*. It is a testament to the ability of the Tesla production team that Model 3 volume now exceeds Model S and Model X combined. What took our team five years for S/X, took only nine months for Model 3.

Given the progress made thus far and upcoming actions for further capacity improvement, we expect that the Model 3 production rate will climb rapidly through Q2. *Tesla continues to target a production rate of approximately 5,000 units per week in about three months*, laying the groundwork for Q3 to have the long-sought ideal combination of high volume, good gross margin and strong positive operating cash flow. As a result, Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines.

Q1 deliveries totaled 29,980 vehicles, of which 11,730 were Model S, 10,070 were Model X, and 8,180 were Model 3. Net orders for Model S and X were at an all-time Q1 record, and demand remains very strong. Model S and X customer vehicles in transit were high. 4,060 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q1, which was 68% higher than at the end of Q4 2017. An additional 2,040 Model 3 vehicles were also in transit to customers. These vehicles will be delivered in early Q2 2018, which keeps us on track for our full-year 2018 Model S and X delivery guidance.

Finally, we would like to share two additional points about Model 3:

• The quality of Model 3 coming out of production is at the highest level we have seen across all our products. This is reflected in the overwhelming delight experienced by our customers with their Model 3's. *Our initial customer satisfaction score for Model 3 quality is above 93%, which is the highest score in Tesla's history*.

• *Net Model 3 reservations remained stable through Q1*. The reasons for order cancellation are almost entirely due to delays in production in general and delays in availability of certain planned options, particularly dual motor AWD and the smaller battery pack. As described above, owner happiness with the product is extremely high.

We would like to thank our customers, suppliers and investors for their continued patience and belief in Tesla.


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## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

Why. Why didn't I trust my instincts (and all the data we all had) and buy yesterday?


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

I don't recommend trying to be psychic to "time things" perfectly. If you feel a stock is undervalued, buy. If you don't, don't.

Look at Tesla today. If you think it's undervalued, buy. If you don't, don't.  If you want to eliminate randomness in buys and sells, spread them out. If you like the randomness, buy all at once.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Nice !! 9766 Model 3 produced and 8180 delivered... TSLA already up 3%...


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Lovesword said:


> Why. Why didn't I trust my instincts (and all the data we all had) and buy yesterday?





KarenRei said:


> I don't recommend trying to be psychic to "time things" perfectly.


Exactly.
It's not really that much higher than it was yesterday. If you thought it was too low yesterday, then you probably think the price is still too low today. Go ahead and place an order.

I'm probably going to place an order today or tomorrow.


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

My Model 3 I picked up Saturday was flawless.
A product in high demand is the most valuable asset in business.


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## jmmdownhil (Sep 12, 2017)

Bought more as it went down through 255 yesterday. In for the long haul, but consider it all at 100% risk. As someone else said, it's like buying a lottery ticket but with better odds (maybe?). If you can't afford to lose it all, don't buy.


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

I should also note, that baked into almost every short thesis are two casual assumptions:

1. Tesla loses money on each car it produces
2. Tesla will soon run out of cash


So you can imagine how devastating it would be if Tesla was to show that Model 3 production looks to have good gross margin, and if Tesla turns from cash consumption to cash generation.

One of the interesting characteristics of a short bet is that the downside is not limited. In other words, if TSLA were to suddenly shoot up to $1000 (not likely, but play along), someone betting on a value of $100 as of a certain date would owe $900 per share. The only way to limit that loss is to decide at some point on the way up to actually buy a matching share of stock to "cover" the loss their borrowed share is incurring. For every dollar their borrowed share loses, their purchased share gains a dollar.

So if we start to see evidence of healthy gross margins and cash generation we would not only see a direct influence on the stock price, but also the compounding effect of shorts rushing to buy shares to cover their bets. With 25-30% of the stock shorted, that's a huge surge in demand.

It will get UGLY. There are billions of dollars on the line for short sellers. i kind of shudder to think what they might do to make Tesla look bad as Model 3 production takes off. Expect to see a lot of FUD in the press.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Nice rebound!


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

John said:


> I should also note, that baked into almost every short thesis are two casual assumptions:
> 
> 1. Tesla loses money on each car it produces
> 2. Tesla will soon run out of cash
> ...


This.

I don't know, I kind of feel bad to the people who heeded the advice on Seeking Alpha to not "go wobbly" on Tesla, and instead short the stock when it was in the 250s. They're going to lose their bloody shirts. I kind of feel bad.

Only kind of.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

It always makes me laugh thinking of T≡SLA shorts losing their shirts... yet I keep wondering... it will be a lot worse when they lose their _shorts_!!


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> This.
> 
> I don't know, I kind of feel bad to the people who heeded the advice on Seeking Alpha to not "go wobbly" on Tesla, and instead short the stock when it was in the 250s. They're going to lose their bloody shirts. I kind of feel bad.
> 
> Only kind of.


You're right, they have a click-bait trash-talking echo chamber set up at Seeking Alpha that is sure to wreck some casual investors.

I have noticed from my extended family and friend set that the prevailing story about Tesla is consistently negative. 
Here is the "conventional wisdom" on Tesla that is most likely to get agreement at a ****tail party (outside of California or Norway). It's depressing when you hear it from a chortling family member:

Tesla can't produce new cars, and the old ones have all been recalled
Don't buy a Tesla-they are going out of business soon (I heard it on TV)
While they try to figure out how to get self-driving cars to work-which they won't-they will kill a lot of people
Teslas are owned by rich people, so screw 'em
Elon Musk says crazy stuff all the time that serious people don't take seriously


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

It looks like the shorts are doing a little pre-market manipulation to drive the stock back down.

Get ready to place that order, @Lovesword.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Dang it, I hate being this tempted to buy more...


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

I just placed an order at $258.099 (Tenths of a penny? Really?)


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

garsh said:


> I just placed an order at $258.099 (Tenths of a penny? Really?)


Buying stock at the gas station, I see....


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## Audrey (Aug 2, 2017)

Google alert told me Tesla is up like 7% today. If you guys wanna buy more, I'd be grateful. 

Edit: I think delivering my model 3 was the golden ticket that turned the stock around. Elon can send me a thank you in the form of a Roadster 2.0 or cold hard cash.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

It's hitting against 300 now. We'll see if it breaks back above that point today.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

garsh said:


> It's hitting against 300 now. We'll see if it breaks back above that point today.


Broke 300 

I expect there to be some profit taking at periodic intervals. But there's no question where this stock is going overall as Tesla continues to up Model 3 production.

Man, I can't believe how much money I've made in such a short period of time... can't wait to see how the stock is doing once the line is up and running at full and Tesla has positive cash flow  I can see how people get addicted to trading stocks. Thankfully I have the needs of my house to keep me in check


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

...and it's rebounding nicely.


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

...and in the time it took to write the above post it's up another $3.

Dan


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

So I just did something I have never done in my life...I am now a Tesla stock holder. Bought in at $294 this morning. I know, I know, I should have bought in last week when it was $250 but hindsight is always 20/20 in the market, right? We'll see where it goes in the next few months before I get to configure. Maybe if I'm really lucky I can get dual motor off the dividends! (Well, a guy can hope can't he?)

Dan


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

If I had more money to put in right now, I would be doing so too  (bought at $268, but $294 is still a very good deal). 

Just wait until Tesla's first profitable quarter (aka, Model 3 production is up to design specs); the stock is going to go through the roof.


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

I've made $1.03! I'm so excited!

Is this normal...checking the stock every 5 minutes?

Dan


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> I've made $1.03! I'm so excited!
> 
> Is this normal...checking the stock every 5 minutes?
> 
> Dan


For the first several days


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

COINCIDENCE?????










(source)


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

The funny part is that TSLA only needs to hop up due to improved production rates to start a short squeeze, and all of those short positions will collapse like a house of cards. That's an amazingly dangerous game they're playing, having so much of the company's stock shorted. They'll literally have to buy up a _third_ of the company's entire stock to cover their positions, at whatever price it happens to be.

Dang how I wish I had more cash on hand right now to buy more TSLA...


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## Vin (Mar 30, 2017)

I hear ya Karen. I wish I had bought more when I did at $218, but I would definitely buy now for the long term 
I'm no expert but I have faith that Elon will come through.


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

Just strengthened my position with a few more shares at $277.82 after the financial call yesterday. I guess the market doesn't like it when a CEO basically tells a long time short seller that he is done with their BS. Oh well, get over it I guess. Gotta stop checking Robinhood every 10 minutes! I'll empty out my savings at this rate! LOL!

Dan


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> Just strengthened my position with a few more shares at $277.82 after the financial call yesterday. I guess the market doesn't like it when a CEO basically tells a long time short seller that he is done with their BS. Oh well, get over it I guess. Gotta stop checking Robinhood every 10 minutes! I'll empty out my savings at this rate! LOL!
> 
> Dan


This short selling market is getting absurd. The company beats the whisper number and the stock goes down 10%? I mean, give me a break!

Wish I could use RobinHood here. I've not found an affordable option for trading US stocks; I have to go to the bank and they take a 1% cut :Þ Still worth it, of course.


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## Joaquin (Jan 15, 2018)

After a couple days with my Model 3, I decided to buy some Tesla stocks. I used robinhood to put the order yesterday afternoon, it was around 295. But the market was closed and they got bought this morning at around 276. Even better 

The product (model 3) is amazing. They need to really screw up the production for the company to go bad.


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## EVenthusan (Oct 2, 2017)

I am planning to buy at around $265.


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

EVenthusan said:


> I am planning to buy at around $265.


I kind of doubt it's going to get there. It's already bouncing back up.

Dan


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

Man, buying into this bloodbath on principle alone is very tempting. And apart from principle, there is usually no faster way to get my attention as an investor than widespread hysteria among the financial elite -- exacerbated by news-cycle-du-jour media coverage* -- that has become decoupled from the underlying reality. (Remember when that one U.S. President was going to nationalize all of the banks, despite his repeated assurances that this option wasn't even under consideration? )

* Visualization courtesy of your friendly neighborhood Ouroboros:









Alas, enter good ole boring risk management! :sleeping: I've had a position in TSLA since 2013, one which I've slowly trimmed as the stock has risen, to the point where I essentially own what's left for free. I've just been letting that position run, despite it becoming significantly larger than I am typically comfortable with for an individual stock. My conviction in Tesla as a transformative company with tremendous growth potential reduces my perceived risk of TSLA as an investment, so I've allowed it to bend the rules somewhat. Whether I will bend them further is still under debate. 

One other thought: as Karen and others have pointed out above, a stock with this much short interest is structurally difficult to push down and keep down, in the absence of a major exodus in institutional ownership, because short-sellers have to buy back the stock they've borrowed in order to realize a profit. Let's think for a moment about the psychology of the short trade on a heavily-shorted name like TSLA that has just experienced a major drop. If you'd shorted the stock above its current level, you might be inclined to book some profit to reduce the risk of the position turning against you, but you also might want to watch the price action for a bit to see if this drop is merely the beginning of a new downward trend (and more profit for you). Similarly, if you'd shorted the stock below its current level, you might want to wait and see whether the price continues to trend downward, but given that you're already in the red, you also view this drop as an opportunity to mitigate your losses and save face (and possibly your job). In both cases, a rising stock price increases the pressure to act (whether to book the profit or limit the loss), which in turn increases the likelihood that the multitudes of other short-sellers will act as well, so it can quickly become a vicious cycle (for shorts ).

Barring a continued stream of bad news for Tesla, or a mass exodus of institutional investment, all the hubbub over yesterday's earnings call will fade from the news cycle over the coming days and weeks, and I think we'll see that game of short-seller chicken get underway.


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## EVenthusan (Oct 2, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> I kind of doubt it's going to get there. It's already bouncing back up.
> 
> Dan


I think there are good odds the slide is not done. There will be a bounce, but hoping to get to $265 in couple of weeks.


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## JWardell (May 9, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> The company beats the whisper number and the stock goes down 10%? I mean, give me a break!


You literally just did get a break....of 10% off the stock price! Time to buy some more!


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

So....is it a bad thing that I keep dipping into my Model 3 down payment fund to buy up more Tesla stock? 15 more shares this morning.

I HAVE TO STOP DOING THIS! (or do I?)

Dan


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

$296 and falling! Here's your chance to get in.

Dan


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## Tesla Only (May 15, 2018)

Dan Detweiler said:


> $296 and falling! Here's your chance to get in.
> 
> Dan


hit a low of 280.5 today, I'm going to keep an eye on it for the next few days.


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

Bokonon said:


> Man, buying into this bloodbath on principle alone is very tempting. And apart from principle, there is usually no faster way to get my attention as an investor than widespread hysteria among the financial elite -- exacerbated by news-cycle-du-jour media coverage* -- that has become decoupled from the underlying reality. (Remember when that one U.S. President was going to nationalize all of the banks, despite his repeated assurances that this option wasn't even under consideration? )
> 
> * Visualization courtesy of your friendly neighborhood Ouroboros:
> 
> ...


Here is my issue with the process of short selling as a whole. I wrote this on TMC and copy it here because I think it is relevant. I really find the practice repulsive. I understand its use and the reason it is done so much, but to me, it is fundamentally counterproductive to long term economic health (except for the bank accounts of those that profit from the practice).

I really do believe that the Bull vs.Bear argument fundamentally comes down to one simple fact. The bears are looking at a given company as a means to an end at the expense of what the company stands for. (Looking for the company to fail, and often doing whatever they can to ensure that). The bulls are looking at what the company has to offer in the future. How it is going to influence its business sector down the line. In other words, investing in its growth, (and also often doing things to help ensure that outcome as well.) One builds up, the other tears down.

Dan


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## tivoboy (Mar 24, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> I kind of doubt it's going to get there. It's already bouncing back up.
> 
> Dan


we'll get there.


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## tivoboy (Mar 24, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> Here is my issue with the process of short selling as a whole. I wrote this on TMC and copy it here because I think it is relevant. I really find the practice repulsive. I understand its use and the reason it is done so much, but to me, it is fundamentally counterproductive to long term economic health (except for the bank accounts of those that profit from the practice).
> 
> I really do believe that the Bull vs.Bear argument fundamentally comes down to one simple fact. The bears are looking at a given company as a means to an end at the expense of what the company stands for. (Looking for the company to fail, and often doing whatever they can to ensure that). The bulls are looking at what the company has to offer in the future. How it is going to influence its business sector down the line. In other words, investing in its growth, (and also often doing things to help ensure that outcome as well.) One builds up, the other tears down.
> 
> Dan


While I can understand the impression, that's not really how short selling works. Granted, someone has a negative expectation on the direction of the stock and possibly the company as a whole (hence the negative stock expectation) but there is always someone on the other side of that trade who believes the opposite.

It's a borrow with an obligation to return. Technically, one has borrowed (and often only put up a small amount plus margin expense) and not paid in full or committed to deliver shares, and they are hoping that they can get them at some future date cheaper.

Can it be sometime self fulfilling, sure. But, that should be considered informative. If SO many people are interested in giving me shares at a later date, and I buy them or loan them today - shouldn't this be informative?

Take some solace in the fact that of most companies, Tesla and their leader take FULL advantage of the regular uncertainly that the company faces on a quarterly basis to really put the screws into "short sellers" regularly and extract significant pain out of them regularly.

Personally, I think all this turmoil about manufacturing, production targets, federal tax incentives falling off, running out of cash, etc., the company is fine with it in the press.. it serves to pull the stock down and them boom the veil is lifted and we're back at 20K a month production M3 and to stock rally's back hard to 350$. Rinse and repeat.


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## Brokedoc (May 28, 2017)

I expect TSLA Q2 numbers to be strong but still have missed Model 3 production targets due to delayed ramp and production down time. I expect the 5k/wk production threshold to be hit this week, possibly full week production but more likely extrapolated burst rate. There may be a slight pullback on stock price which may be one of the last buying opportunities for a long time.

The shorts are getting desperate and industrial espionage and FUD are in full swing. Rumors about TSLA's impending bankruptcy are in full effect.

Just picture this example, Model 3 line only:

5k/wk=20k/month.
Assuming sale price of $50k/car
Monthly gross sales of $1 Billion.
Gross Margin of 25%=Gross Profit of $250 Million PER MONTH for Model 3 only.

This is the quarter where economies of scale kick in and the ramp continues with even more profit margin.
Why in the world does Tesla need to raise more cash from investors when the ramp is going as planned and customers are throwing money at them?


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## Kbm3 (May 24, 2017)

Brokedoc said:


> I expect TSLA Q2 numbers to be strong but still have missed Model 3 production targets due to delayed ramp and production down time. I expect the 5k/wk production threshold to be hit this week, possibly full week production but more likely extrapolated burst rate. There may be a slight pullback on stock price which may be one of the last buying opportunities for a long time.
> 
> The shorts are getting desperate and industrial espionage and FUD are in full swing. Rumors about TSLA's impending bankruptcy are in full effect.
> 
> ...


I agree that it s a good time to buy, but 25% gross margin may take awhile.
They have to optimize production lines and they've had to improvise more than they planned.

On the plus side, Q3 sales will have very high average selling price because of pent up demand for AWD and Performance!

I'm really hoping Elon has an unexpected positive surprise in 2 weeks to trigger the "short burn of the century ".

I don't believe he thinks hitting 5k/week would be sufficient to trigger a short squeeze.


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## Brokedoc (May 28, 2017)

Kbm3 said:


> I agree that it s a good time to buy, but 25% gross margin may take awhile.
> They have to optimize production lines and they've had to improvise more than they planned.
> 
> On the plus side, Q3 sales will have very high average selling price because of pent up demand for AWD and Performance!
> ...


I think 25% average gross margin for the current Frist Production/P/D trim vehicles is probably achievable at 5k/wk volume. As the volume increases and SR/non-PUP trim line is introduced, the 25% gross margin stat should be achievable at 7.5-10k/wk from economies of scale.

Q3 sales average price will still be limited since the main GA3 line seems to be dedicated to First Production config. We will see how quickly GA4 ramps but the recent rumor that GA4 is completely manual with robotics phased in later may slow down the ramp for these vehicles.

If Tesla releases a substantial AP upgrade this summer as Elon has tweeted, that may increase the number of those choosing to buy AP (which is almost pure profit aside from development costs)


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## tivoboy (Mar 24, 2017)

I don’t think we’re going to see near 25% at this point. Getting to 18-20% would be a significant achievement. They might try to play games with EAP and FSD revenues at this point but that will be obvious. 

The real question will be about foreign sales and import tariffs to those countries.


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## Brokedoc (May 28, 2017)

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1012425192637960192


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Stock price is back below $300 again.
I think I'm going to buy another big (well, for me) block of stock soon.
I'm trying to decide if I want to do so right before or right after Tesla announces Q2 earnings.


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## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

garsh said:


> Stock price is back below $300 again.
> I think I'm going to buy another big (well, for me) block of stock soon.
> I'm trying to decide if I want to do so right before or right after Tesla announces Q2 earnings.


The million dollar question.... when to POUNCE!!!


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## SoFlaModel3 (Apr 15, 2017)

garsh said:


> Stock price is back below $300 again.
> I think I'm going to buy another big (well, for me) block of stock soon.
> I'm trying to decide if I want to do so right before or right after Tesla announces Q2 earnings.


Buy more with your Performance savings!


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

*Tesla Announces Date for Second Quarter 2018 Financial Results and Webcast*

_Tesla will post its financial results for the second quarter of 2018 after market close on Wednesday, *August 1, 2018*. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q2 2018 Update Letter, which will be available on Tesla's Investor Relations website. Tesla will hold a live question and answer *webcast that day at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time)* to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook._​
So, I guess I'll plan on buying some more shares on August 2nd.


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## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

garsh said:


> *Tesla Announces Date for Second Quarter 2018 Financial Results and Webcast*
> 
> _Tesla will post its financial results for the second quarter of 2018 after market close on Wednesday, *August 1, 2018*. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q2 2018 Update Letter, which will be available on Tesla's Investor Relations website. Tesla will hold a live question and answer *webcast that day at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time)* to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook._​
> So, I guess I'll plan on buying some more shares on August 2nd.


Yes, but always be ready to re-appraise based on new info. It's nearly impossible to predict the movement of any stock, let alone this one. I have the best returns investing when I think somewhat contrarian. If Tesla goes down big-time going into earnings, that might be a better buy. But I like your idea if TSLA goes up into earnings. The thing about earnings is that it gives management a big opportunity to make a lot of new announcements and very positive forward-looking statements. If the quarterly financials are weak, expect a lot of rosy predictions. If they are strong, expect comments that temper irrational exuberance.

Personally, I think the valuation is pretty high considering the formidable challenges that lay immediately ahead. Tempering that is the fact that a lot of people believe in the mission enough that there is an incredible amount of investor patience with Tesla and that has put a strong floor under the share price and prevented a cratering down to double digits.

There are no sure bets and this one doesn't even come close. Just know that you're playing with fire. I love to see the shorts get burned but not so much when it's the longs. Be careful out there and only play with money you're willing to lose. In the end, it's the big institutional investors that matter, not a bunch of individuals who might buy a few hundred shares each.


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

garsh said:


> So, I guess I'll plan on buying some more shares on August 2nd.


I'm curious to see which (if either) of the following short-term narratives wins over the next couple of weeks prior to the call:

1. "Looks like Tesla had an underwhelming Q2 and will miss on EPS and revenue. Get out now!"
2. "Looks like Tesla had an underwhelming Q2 and will miss on EPS and revenue *to achieve profitability in Q3 and Q4!* Buy while it's still cheap!"

As @PNWmisty suggested above, if narrative #1 takes hold and the stock tanks into earnings, it could present a bargain that may not be available after the call, so best to keep your options open (though I do think that buying on August 2nd *after* we know the stock's reaction to the call is the less risky strategy).

I fully expect this Q2 call to be all about Q3, Q4, and beyond. Q2 results -- to the extent that they do not surprise everyone to the upside, which I wouldn't rule out -- will be re-framed within the context of profitability in subsequent quarters. I think the market's reaction to the call will largely depend on how convincing and cohesive this re-framing effort is, and how well it holds up under scrutiny during the Q&A. Another "these questions are so dry, we're going to YouTube" moment might be counter-productive in that regard.


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## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

Bokonon said:


> Another "these questions are so dry, we're going to YouTube" moment might be counter-productive in that regard.


At least he didn't say "These questions are so dry (burp), I think I'll have another beer"!


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## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

PNWmisty said:


> At least he didn't say "These questions are so dry (burp), I think I'll have another AMBIEN"!


FTFY


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

PNWmisty said:


> Yes, but always be ready to re-appraise based on new info. It's nearly impossible to predict the movement of any stock, let alone this one.


Agreed, and agreed.

Basically, I'm counting on the shorts making one final push to lower the stock price after Q2 earnings are announced. If it doesn't happen, then I'll just stay where I'm at.


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## Pascal Hureau (May 5, 2016)

After Elon's tweet considering going private, what is your opinion now ? Would you consider buying shares now to support the plan and be ready to move to a private fund or would you consider risks at too high to do so ?


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Pascal Hureau said:


> After Elon's tweet considering going private, what is your opinion now ? Would you consider buying shares now to support the plan and be ready to move to a private fund or would you consider risks at too high to do so ?


My personal risk-tolerance is pretty high in regards to Tesla. I believe in the company, and I think going private actually makes it less risky. It insulates them from having institutional shorts applying pressure to finance companies to prevent Tesla from being able to borrow money at low rates.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

garsh said:


> My personal risk-tolerance is pretty high in regards to Tesla. I believe in the company, and I think going private actually makes it less risky. It insulates them from having institutional shorts applying pressure to finance companies to prevent Tesla from being able to borrow money at low rates.


so on the other side of that, as a private company share holder, what does the reward look like? annual dividends (when profitable), share splits, something else?


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## tivoboy (Mar 24, 2017)

Pascal Hureau said:


> After Elon's tweet considering going private, what is your opinion now ? Would you consider buying shares now to support the plan and be ready to move to a private fund or would you consider risks at too high to do so ?


After finally been called away last week with the news (sold 5X calls without exercise), I'll be buying again at some point, but at a lower price point from here.

I think you'll get back to at least 33x by next week. Before any deal to take private occurs, it will probably be lower than that at some point.


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## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

MelindaV said:


> so on the other side of that, as a private company share holder, what does the reward look like? annual dividends (when profitable), share splits, something else?


I doubt Tesla will pay any dividends for at least 5-10 years, they will plow all profits back into expansion of solar, batteries and cars. Share splits are not important, they are just a form of accounting housekeeping. Buy into Tesla for the potential long-term capital appreciation. They have the potential to have a very high growth rate over a long period of time.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

PNWmisty said:


> They have the potential to have a very high growth rate over a long period of time.


How does a holder of private stock see that translated into "more money for me"?

Do you just hang on for many years until they start paying dividends?

Does the stock price go up? What causes the price of private stock to go up? I would imagine this could be set up in different ways, but I'm not familiar with it.


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## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

Apologies for the late reply, I just now saw this.



garsh said:


> How does a holder of private stock see that translated into "more money for me"?
> 
> Do you just hang on for many years until they start paying dividends?


A stock's value is ultimately due to it's presumed ability to eventually pay dividends. However, most people buy a stock like TSLA for capital appreciation. That is, the belief that someone will be willing to pay them more for it in the future. Even private company stock that is not listed on any exchange can be bought and sold although you need to find a buyer.



> Does the stock price go up? What causes the price of private stock to go up? I would imagine this could be set up in different ways, but I'm not familiar with it.


A private company doesn't have the same earnings and financial statement visibility and is considered much less liquid than shares of a public company that can be sold easily. Like a public stock, private stock is valued at whatever a willing buyer and willing seller agree upon. In the abandoned take private effort, Musk envisioned a bi-annual period in which there would be some kind of private market created and shares could change hands. I envisioned it would happen at a company shareholder meeting in which non-shareholders could attend. It would be some sort of basic non-electronic market in which holders of shares could offer their shares for sale and buyers could make offers. The company could also offer to buy up to a fixed number of shares at a price approved by the BoD. Of course, individuals could sell their shares to willing buyers at any agreed upon price at any time. I've seen classified ads in the local newspaper offering shares of a private ski area for sale for $8.50/share (I should have bought them!).


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## Guy Weathersby (Jun 22, 2016)

PNWmisty said:


> Apologies for the late reply, I just now saw this.
> 
> A stock's value is ultimately due to it's presumed ability to eventually pay dividends. However, most people buy a stock like TSLA for capital appreciation. That is, the belief that someone will be willing to pay them more for it in the future. Even private company stock that is not listed on any exchange can be bought and sold although you need to find a buyer.
> 
> A private company doesn't have the same earnings and financial statement visibility and is considered much less liquid than shares of a public company that can be sold easily. Like a public stock, private stock is valued at whatever a willing buyer and willing seller agree upon. In the abandoned take private effort, Musk envisioned a bi-annual period in which there would be some kind of private market created and shares could change hands. I envisioned it would happen at a company shareholder meeting in which non-shareholders could attend. It would be some sort of basic non-electronic market in which holders of shares could offer their shares for sale and buyers could make offers. The company could also offer to buy up to a fixed number of shares at a price approved by the BoD. Of course, individuals could sell their shares to willing buyers at any agreed upon price at any time. I've seen classified ads in the local newspaper offering shares of a private ski area for sale for $8.50/share (I should have bought them!).


This is obviously speculative and moot, but I imagine it would work pretty much nothing as described. I suspect that the board would contract an independent authority to determine a fair price and Tesla would buy any offered stock at that price. They might also offer stock at that price. No private trades would be allowed and no trades outside of the set time window.


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## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

Guy Weathersby said:


> This is obviously speculative and moot, but I imagine it would work pretty much nothing as described. I suspect that the board would contract an independent authority to determine a fair price and Tesla would buy any offered stock at that price. They might also offer stock at that price. No private trades would be allowed and no trades outside of the set time window.


Have you heard of stock of a private company that couldn't be bought/sold between consenting adults that were accredited investors?

I haven't.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Looks like another day to pick up a few shares.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

MelindaV said:


> Looks like another day to pick up a few shares.


TSLA share price has fallen off a cliff. Trading around $259. CAO quit after a month. So what?


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

MelindaV said:


> Looks like another day to pick up a few shares.


I had decided to wait and see if it hits 250 before buying more.
But it's oh-so-close to 250 in pre-market... I may have to pull the trigger early.

It's amazing what a little pot-smoking can accomplish.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> TSLA share price has fallen off a cliff. Trading around $259. CAO quit after a month. So what?


Elon smoked pot (legally) and sipped whiskey last night. Therefore, Tesla is doomed, apparently.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

garsh said:


> I had decided to wait and see if it hits 250 before buying more.
> But it's oh-so-close to 250 in pre-market... I may have to pull the trigger early.
> 
> It's amazing what a little pot-smoking can accomplish.


Thinking about buying cannabis stocks. Free advertising from Elon LOL.

Does anyone else think that Elon is bringing the stock price down on purpose?


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

garsh said:


> Elon smoked pot (legally) and sipped whiskey last night. Therefore, Tesla is doomed, apparently.


So you were not smoking thins morning while considering buying? (Am I the only one who read it that way?)


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

garsh said:


> I had decided to wait and see if it hits 250 before buying more.
> But it's oh-so-close to 250 in pre-market... I may have to pull the trigger early.


I'm in again at just under $260.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

remember when it was up around $380 and wondering why I didn't picking up more shares when it was previously in the $240s... 
When it jumps back up, Im sure I will be wondering why I didn't buy more now


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## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Thinking about buying cannabis stocks. Free advertising from Elon LOL.


Yes, he just legitimized cannabis in a way that only Musk could do. Unfortunately, he also delegitimized his company (in a way only Musk can do).



> Does anyone else think that Elon is bringing the stock price down on purpose?


It's definitely possible. I used to think that but now I don't know what to think.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

I’ve gotten numb to years of investing in TSLA. Still waiting for another meteoric rise in the stock price just like when the Model S came to market, which I believe is just around the corner. Then again, I thought the same a year ago.

Elon is definitely up to something that may benefit us investors in the very near term. He’s hopefully making calculated moves to burn the shorts, much like pulling back a slingshot before releasing it... IMO his recent publicity stunts are his arrogant way of taunting Wall Street, as if telling the shorts and oil magnates to bring it on.

Tesla is quite undervalued considering what we know about the astounding August sales figure estimates and near future projections. Just ignoring the stock price for now, trying to stay positive and keeping focused on what I believe to be the true value of the company. I don’t lose as long as I don’t sell.

Lucky for those who can jump in at these low prices while they can!


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Musk doesn't give a rat's arse about day traders. Everyone trading TSLA should have an entry and exit horizon - a time period over which they expect a big boost in TSLA. Mine from the beginning has been after the Q4 report. Maaaybe as late as Q1. But two quarters of profitability should do the trick (one won't).


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## babula (Aug 26, 2018)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Thinking about buying cannabis stocks. Free advertising from Elon LOL.
> 
> Does anyone else think that Elon is bringing the stock price down on purpose?


Tell me more, why would he want to drive the price down? Anything to do with the recent desire to go private?


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

babula said:


> Tell me more, why would he want to drive the price down? Anything to do with the recent desire to go private?


To grab more shares either for himself or investment partners, to lead naysayers to overconfidence...

But then there will be announcements that will bring the stock price back up.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Discuss. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1038379273147506688


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> Discuss.


Tweet has apparently been deleted.
What was it?


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

garsh said:


> Tweet has apparently been deleted.
> What was it?












She's a production associate at Tesla.


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## Gusm3 (Nov 29, 2018)

So shares or stocks I’m confused and how long to keep them for ?


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

Gusm3 said:


> So shares or stocks I'm confused and how long to keep them for ?


The terms: you "buy shares" of "a stock" like TSLA.

_Whether you buy them_ is a risk. Learn what you can, and make a decision about whether you're okay taking that risk. For instance, how long do you think Tesla will be in business? Will they continue to grow? Will they remain profitable? How profitable? How well will the ENTIRE stock market do? (If the market goes down drastically, people will shy away from stocks, and Tesla's share price will suffer as well.)

_How long you keep_ your shares of TSLA depends on when you will need the money. If you think you will need the money back short term (next year), you should be hesitant to place it risky stocks (TSLA is still considered risky.) If you have a longer time frame (years), then usually stocks are a good investment. While they rise and fall in short and medium time frames (crashes), they have always gone up longer term. For instance, if you bought a bundle of tech stocks from the NASDAQ in May of 2000 (height of the dot-com bubble) and held them until at least June of 2016 you would probably have made money (if the companies were still around)-and that includes TWO very large market crashes.

Never take investment advice from a stranger.

That having been said, my opinion-and I do have one-is that it's a great stock for the future. I've owned it twice: the first time bought my Model 3 (I thought doing that was poetic). The second bunch I bought recently at the height of FUD and plan to hold long-term. I believe the most valuable thing in business is customer delight for products, and I think that Tesla is doing a great job of appreciating and committing heavily to the largest macro trend that has ever affected business and society: the rise of computing (broadly stated, the calculating done by machines, rather than people).

Tesla is the only auto company that has more software engineers than any other type. If you'd like a little background on why software matters (to all industries), watch this short important video, which includes the most important graph ever shown, and explains how software in the future will differ from software you're used to:


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Note that if you want more fine control over your investment, you can look at options. But note that they're a lot more complex of an investment, so you need to take the time to learn about what you're doing.

* Buying calls lets you amplify any price movements. But it also means you have to beat a higher price for breakeven, and there's a strike price (your choice) below which your buy isn't worth anything. So basically: more gain, more risk.
* Selling calls lets you lock in some profit, at the cost of you not profiting on any stock movement above the strike price you choose. Basically, you pass the gambling on "extreme movements" onto someone else. So basically: less gain, but less risk (if they're covered). But if they're not covered, the potential downside is unlimited.
* Buying puts is a short-selling strategy which limits their losses to the amount of money they invested, even if the stock goes to the moon. But the stock has to drop below the strike price for the option to be worth anything.
* Selling puts lets you lock in profit on the stock so long as it doesn't go too far down, without having to sacrifice any gains should the stock skyrocket (like selling calls does). But it puts you on the hook for a lot more money than you took in from the sale should the stock plunge too far below the strike price, so it's a somewhat risky bullish bet if not covered.

Sold options can be "covered" or "uncovered". You cover a sold call with either having a matching amount of stock (or calls with lower strike prices), and you cover a sold put with either having a matching short position (or puts with higher strike prices). 

I personally like buying calls with lower strike prices (which I feel will be easily profitable) and selling calls with higher strike prices beyond which I feel the price would be unlikely to move - on the logic that A) slow and steady wins the race, and B) if the price were to actually rise that high, I could "console" myself by the large profits that I did get from my lower-strike calls  If one is worried about black swan events, they could use the money from selling the high-strike calls to buy puts to act as an insurance policy.

Stock is a KISS ("keep it simple stupid") investment strategy. But it is also suboptimal for most people, because the odds you personally ascribe to various market events (exceeding or dropping below various levels in various timeframes) won't match up with what the broader market considers those odds to be.


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

A good way to think about stock is: would I like to own this company? But just as important: when I need money in the future, will other people want to take my place, or is just popular now?

There’s lots of fun gambling you can do short term, but it’s just that. You’re extremely reliant on how other people react to small events, and related events (like bonds or cash suddenly seeming like a better idea to many investors). Or a tweet. Or a flimsy press release from a competitor. Or an accident. Stack all that up and you end up with chaotic behavior that’s just a crapshoot to bet on. And tough to have a simple thesis about. Which is more important in January: strong delivery numbers, or a tariff, or a Chinese government policy, or the elimination of a tax break, the loss of a key executive, or a horrific Autopilot accident? Predicting all that is a mess. 

So think longer term. Find something you think is riding the right wave, and that lots of customers love. Look for proof of those things. Filter out the noise.


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## Gusm3 (Nov 29, 2018)

Thank you very much appreciate it thanks guys


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

The S&P 500 broke through the 2,580 support level today, which some say is a signal for continued downward trend in the markets. I have sold my remaining TSLA positions as of last week, although my wife still has some.

Looking to wait out the storm until it calms down. Good luck everyone!


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Selling when the stock is _down_? Why oh why do people do this.... _"Be fearful when investors are greedy; be greedy when investors are fearful."_

Meanwhile, I'm kicking myself (or rather, my bank) over the fact that my SWIFT transfer hasn't posted yet in my Interactive Brokers account so that I can buy more February '19 calls at a great discounted rate.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> Selling when the stock is _down_? Why oh why do people do this.... _"Be fearful when investors are greedy; be greedy when investors are fearful."_
> 
> Meanwhile, I'm kicking myself (or rather, my bank) over the fact that my SWIFT transfer hasn't posted yet in my Interactive Brokers account so that I can buy more February '19 calls at a great discounted rate.


On the contrary, I sold my positions at the 360s anticipating a market crash.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> On the contrary, I sold my positions at the 360s anticipating a market crash.


Don't be so sure you'll actually get back in below $360. I'd wager on better odds than not that you won't, unless you do so relatively soon. But we'll see.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

I'm not sure of my decision at all. In fact I've been bad at predicting stock prices in general.

It's just that I've already made some of the best gains from TSLA in the past 4 years - over 30% since last summer. And at the same time there's a lot of uneasiness in the US that reminds me of 2008. The market looks too risky right now. Lots of forces much bigger than Tesla are in play... This has been the worst December since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/17/wor...-the-stock-market-since-great-depression.html

On the other hand, the market could be poised for a huge rally. Who knows...


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> I'm not sure of my decision at all. In fact I've been bad at predicting stock prices in general.
> 
> It's just that I've already made some of the best gains from TSLA in the past 4 years - over 30% since last summer. And at the same time there's a lot of uneasiness in the US that reminds me of 2008. The market looks too risky right now. Lots of forces much bigger than Tesla are in play... This has been the worst December since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
> 
> ...


Remember that Tesla has had most of its recent growth _during_ this market decline. And while it didn't yesterday, it often runs counter to macros.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

yesterday's market drop was due to a world leader suggesting to shut down his government if a project is not funded. lets all hope for the health of the entire economy, not just stock holdings but our jobs/income/livelihood, etc, that this is just a blip and not a trend.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Well, well played $ Trillion Musk  Just be seriously careful about staying out of the stock too long. Remember that the issue with a volatile stock is that if you blink, you miss the rises. You don't want to be playing a game of "sell on the midpoints, buy on the highs".

But again, good job


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> Well, well played $ Trillion Musk  Just be seriously careful about staying out of the stock too long. Remember that the issue with a volatile stock is that if you blink, you miss the rises. You don't want to be playing a game of "sell on the midpoints, buy on the highs".
> 
> But again, good job


Been burned a few times already @KarenRei. I changed a losing game this year and so far it's been working for me.

Yeah I can't wait to jump back in. Timing that might as well be the hardest part!


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## Gusm3 (Nov 29, 2018)

Do you Guys use a app like Robin Hood or use a company ?


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Gusm3 said:


> Do you Guys use a app like Robin Hood or use a company ?


I use Robinhood, which is a company, with an app


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## Gusm3 (Nov 29, 2018)

Do you honestly believe Robin Hood is secure safe and also when a person buys share good one Invest multiple times in one or in multiples shares?


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Gusm3 said:


> Do you honestly believe Robin Hood is secure safe and also when a person buys share good one Invest multiple times in one or in multiples shares?


Can you repeat the questing? Was that one question?


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

PSA:

TSLA fell below $300 a few minutes ago and hit a low of $295.70. Time to jump in?


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## tivoboy (Mar 24, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> PSA:
> 
> TSLA fell below $300 a few minutes ago and hit a low of $295.70. Time to jump in?


Unless you want to pay less. Sure.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

I should’ve bought more


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## tivoboy (Mar 24, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> I should've bought more


You may have another opportunity so pick your number and set an alert


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

tivoboy said:


> You may have another opportunity so pick your number and set an alert


Done! (The alert, that is.)


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## StromTrooperM3 (Mar 27, 2019)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Done! (The alert, that is.)


Hopefully you set it low. I feel bad for everyone that was so excited at 300....


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## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

Technical support is around $250, so it might be OK to nibble at it if it holds today after the "earnings"...


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## StromTrooperM3 (Mar 27, 2019)

casey morgan said:


> Technical support is around $250, so it might be OK to nibble at it if it holds today after the "earnings"...


I was going to buy more up some 300. My advisor called 240 about 4 months ago and I'm glad i listened. Even at 250 I'm leary with everything that's going on. I see his grand plan but the market needs to see some results there first. Dreams are nice. And he was right at the end of the investor presentation, he did deliver everything that he promised. I'm worried about the regulations though. That's out of his control as a deliverable


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## tivoboy (Mar 24, 2017)

casey morgan said:


> Technical support is around $250, so it might be OK to nibble at it if it holds today after the "earnings"...


We're going below 250$, keep SOME powder dry if you really want to get long (And by long I mean longer than 6-9 months)


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## E.V.Texan (Aug 29, 2018)

I love the car, the company, and Elon too. However, every trade has a buyer and a SELLER. 

Tesla is a very complicated company. Factory in China is supposed to be selling m3's by the end of 2019.


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## Kendrid (Mar 14, 2019)

KarenRei said:


> Don't be so sure you'll actually get back in below $360. I'd wager on better odds than not that you won't, unless you do so relatively soon. But we'll see.


This hasn't aged well.

Hoping for a rebound in Q3. Q2 they have to prove they had demand and some profit.


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## Wooloomooloo (Oct 29, 2017)

Kendrid said:


> This hasn't aged well.
> 
> Hoping for a rebound in Q3. Q2 they have to prove they had demand and some profit.


It really hasn't. I'm sure most people are aware of the (in)famous "Roundtable" thread on another forum - anyone there posting anything remotely sobering about TSLA is thrown to the wolves. Blind love and loyalty to a company is a terrible investment strategy.


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## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

Wooloomooloo said:


> It really hasn't. I'm sure most people are aware of the (in)famous "Roundtable" thread on another forum - anyone there posting anything remotely sobering about TSLA is thrown to the wolves. Blind love and loyalty to a company is a terrible investment strategy.


That thread is a nightmare. If you miss one day of visiting/reading? Forget it... 50 more pages of 20 replies each. There's good info sprinkled about in those new replies (links, real data, quotes, etc.) but it's just a PITA to even sift through it all.


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## Guest (Apr 28, 2019)

Gusm3 said:


> Do you Guys use a app like Robin Hood or use a company ?


Vanguard. YUUGE Bogle head here, may he RIP. His mind was razor sharp until he passed.



E.V.Texan said:


> I love the car, the company, and Elon too. However, every trade has a buyer and a SELLER.
> 
> Tesla is a very complicated company. Factory in China is supposed to be selling m3's by the end of 2019.


Best cars in the world, hardest working employees in the world, most important mission in the world, top genius/visionary of my lifetime at the helm. With that, few entrepreneurs make effective CEOs. If anyone has been (objectively) watching what has been transpiring over at Fremont/Hawthorne over the last couple of years and still only sees continued greatness with every tweet, every pr announcement, and every staged presentation, well then, they might as well head on over to that TSLA investing thread on that other forum that was mentioned upthread.

Glad to read that the China factory is on or ahead of schedule with 24hr. construction, i believe it will be challenging to source the 6-7K in-spec, high quality unique parts required for the M3 that I believe must be sourced locally as one of the restrictions placed on Tesla for building the first unprecedented production plant in China without the requirement of a Chinese partner.

Too amusing reading a well known Tesla/Twitter poster engage Elon recently about utilizing the same production line in China as they are currently using in Fremont. Such a question shows just how little insight and production knowledge that individual truly has for someone with such accessibility.


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## Guest (Apr 28, 2019)

Wooloomooloo said:


> Blind love and loyalty to a company is a terrible investment strategy.


Short, and very well stated IMO!!!! That is a keeper. Now, I double dare you to post that same statement verbatim on the other forum. Your PM/conversation box will crash. :fearscream::smiley:


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## Dale Gardner (Jul 1, 2017)

I would implore others to consider purchasing ownership shares of the company of Tesla, Inc. at this time. 

The ARK Innovation fund was buying a bunch of TSLA on friday. They have 10% of their entire fund in Tesla and it is their #1 holding: https://ark-funds.com/arkk#holdings So you would be in good company.

For myself, I loaded up on Tesla shares at the end of the day friday, at $234 per share.  Think about it like this: many others have already bought shares at a higher price and either sold for a loss, or are holding and buying more shares right now. This is an opportunity to pick up Tesla shares at a lower price than everyone else in the past few years.


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## Wooloomooloo (Oct 29, 2017)

Ms. Newbie Electrick said:


> Short, and very well stated IMO!!!! That is a keeper. Now, I double dare you to post that same statement verbatim on the other forum. Your PM/conversation box will crash. :fearscream::smiley:


I made a similar comment...

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

To save you the click...



> Is this based on a principle of supporting Tesla specifically, or EV's generally? If the latter, there really isn't any harm in diversifying. If the former, then do be careful. While there's undoubtedly a litany of "liars, cheats, lobbyists, fraudsters and flat out criminals" on the short/sell side of the equation, it might turn out to be the case for some of those on the buy side of this.
> 
> History is full of examples of people doing wrong things for the right reasons, *don't let romance and blind-faith drive your investments*. You don't want to be that martyr, do you?


This was in the context of someone saying if any other stock behaved this way they'd close it down, but they stuck with TSLA, well just beacuse...


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## PA-pilot (Jul 19, 2016)

The decision to buy Tesla should be first predicated on your long term view / belief of the company then on Stock price. For example, I am long and believe Tesla is a game changer that will be around for a long time and will one day breakout. For that reason, I dollar cost average and buy in increments regardless of price. That said, when there is a market event that drops the price like we are experience, I will certainly add to my position as well. My buy in price ranges from $180 to $325 per share. If I go back to my thesis, will it really matter in 15 years? Finally, my advice is don't invest any money you need and/or unwilling to lose. With the stock market your risk is 100% of your investment, but your upside is infinity.


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## MachV (Jan 15, 2019)

Brokedoc said:


> I don't want to toot my own horn but it's very rare when I'm right so I figure I have to do it.
> 
> My previous post was on 2/22 when TSLA stock closed 346.17 - almost at the peak and almost $100 more than where we are now. https://teslaownersonline.com/threads/buying-stock.6050/#post-76128
> 
> ...


unless its a digital clock


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## PA-pilot (Jul 19, 2016)

This is another great case. Chamath just nails every objection by the interviewer.


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## Needsdecaf (Dec 27, 2018)

13004 said:


> Short, and very well stated IMO!!!! That is a keeper. Now, I double dare you to post that same statement verbatim on the other forum. Your PM/conversation box will crash. :fearscream::smiley:


That has to be the official Tesla forum, LOL. I've never seen such a group of apologists and blind-lovers in there in all my years on the internet, and that's saying something.


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