# Where would you set the bar?



## MJJ (Aug 7, 2016)

A question arose in another thread. Rather than veer off topic like FSD Beta passing a garbage truck, I opted to seize control and make a new thread. 'Cause I'm a 100%er.

The question had to do with license qualifications. I maintain that FSD Beta is at least as good as the worst licensed driver out there. So, if that's all that's required, to be as good or better than that person, FSD could be considered "done." Of course that's a silly thing to say. But it's also true. Any yokel can get a license in California, a CDL even, if what I witness daily is any indication.

If I was in charge of DMV, there would be an age and speed limit tiered system. Road type and time of day would also be a factor. For example (to regress to my childhood at Disneyland):

A Ticket: Age < 18, daylight only, 50 mph limit, no freeway
B Ticket: Age < 20, 6 am to 10 pm, 60 mph speed limit
etc…
E Ticket: Age > 30, 100 mph limit, extensive (and expensive) training and insurance required

Thats rough but you get the idea. I think Britain does something similar with motorcycle licenses.


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

MJJ said:


> I maintain that FSD Beta is at least as good as the worst licensed driver out there.


So millions of drivers out there and you'd be ok with it being just better then the worst one!?

Pretty sure most people would want it to be better then 90% of drivers.

Today it's worse then EVERY driver. When it desires to swerve into oncoming traffic just because there's traffic makes it ineligible to be considered done.


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## MJJ (Aug 7, 2016)

That’s a different thread, if you want to whine about unfinished software seeming… unfinished.

if you read carefully, you notice I do not say “I’m ok with it” being where it is. Of course I anticipate improvements. I’m saying, if our hypothetical “worst driver” enjoys driving privileges, FSD should too. This led to a discussion about licensing requirements, to which response I would guide you.


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## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

So you'd be OK with one Tesla under FSD and getting a serious moving violation ticket and resulting in pulling the driving privileges for all FSD-equipped Tesla's? Or just the whole state where the offence occurred? Or should the points system be different for AI systems?

I guarantee the law will be much harsher on autonomous systems than humans. Humans can confess their remorse and go to driver re-education training programs. I've never seen a computer confess it was at fault.

IMHO the AI assistance systems must be in the top 5% compared to human drivers. Perhaps we should start developing driving tests for Autonomous driving systems now so we have a way to test each "build"?


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

MJJ said:


> That's a different thread, if you want to whine about unfinished software seeming… unfinished.
> 
> if you read carefully, you notice I do not say "I'm ok with it" being where it is. Of course I anticipate improvements. I'm saying, if our hypothetical "worst driver" enjoys driving privileges, FSD should too. This led to a discussion about licensing requirements, to which response I would guide you.


You're saying FSD is as good as the worst driver, it's not.


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## MJJ (Aug 7, 2016)

shareef777 said:


> You're saying FSD is as good as the worst driver, it's not.


It's my hypothesis, so I get to zero the coordinate system.

The question here is "Where would you set the bar" for minimum licensing levels.

What we would need to examine your claim "FSD is not as good as the worst driver " is data showing rates of collisions while using FSD and while not using it. This is hopelessly confounded because FSD is only found on Teslas but it's a start.


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## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

MJJ said:


> What we would need to examine your claim "FSD is not as good as the worst driver " is data showing rates of collisions while using FSD and while not using it. This is hopelessly confounded because FSD is only found on Teslas but it's a start.


Good driversmanship is not based solely on collisions or deaths. Tickets for various levels of moving violations, parking tickets, etc. are all considered by insurance companies along with comprehensive and collision damage and at-fault incidents. A "Good Driver" is a LOT more than collisions.

Will FSD-BB ever be inside the Allstate "Good Hands" hold??


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## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

On the whole collisions debate, it’s pretty close to impossible because FSD isn’t the only actor in the scenario. Cars with drivers can make evasive maneuvers avoiding a collision. Is this a win for FSD? I would suspect not.


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

MJJ said:


> It's my hypothesis, so I get to zero the coordinate system.
> 
> The question here is "Where would you set the bar" for minimum licensing levels.
> 
> What we would need to examine your claim "FSD is not as good as the worst driver " is data showing rates of collisions while using FSD and while not using it. This is hopelessly confounded because FSD is only found on Teslas but it's a start.


Thing is FSD would get into a collision on a majority of trips. I always intervene, wether it's to keep it from going into on-coming traffic or it making a left/right turn too sharp that it'd collide into other vehicles.

How many people do you think are using FSD for every commute without requiring intervention? Have you been engaging FSD on every trip from A to B without it disengaging? It simply can't do that today without getting into an accident. Pretty sure the worst driver isn't getting into an accident daily (hint: they wouldn't be a driver anymore if that were the case).


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## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

I don’t know that it’s fair to say that it would 100% get into a collision. I’ve had many occasions where I have disengaged because it was being too timid/awkward and I just don’t want to be ‘that guy’ annoying other drivers around me. At no time do I feel that it was heading for a collision. Just because it’s doing something a bit wonky doesn’t mean it’s going to crash. From what I see on the display, it has a good handle on where the cars are in its immediate vicinity.


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

There are two different forces at play here.

First, human drivers are licensed so easily in most states in the U.S. because it's been established that every American of legal age has the right to drive a car. This is why very old people with cognitive disorders are still driving (though it's not their fault, they might not realize it), and why people convicted of multiple DUI's are still driving around, even ones that killed someone in the process.

The second force at play is that especially in the U.S., artificial intelligence is up against both fear of technology, and also a mentality that if something goes wrong, we have to follow the path of making sure it can never possibly happen again, no matter how ridiculous that path is. I still predict that at some point autonomous driving is going to end up banned or severely regulated/curtailed in much of the U.S. It will start with a child being killed in a collision with an automated vehicle, and lots of conversation about making sure that no kid will ever be killed by an automated vehicle again. I predict further it will lead to a requirement that even when taxis, trucks, trains, etc are fully autonomous, there must be a human manning a kill switch at all times. Which would be great for employment, but kind of silly in reality.


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## TomT (Apr 1, 2019)

MJJ said:


> I'm saying, if our hypothetical "worst driver" enjoys driving privileges, FSD should too.


I've never seen an driver who has been licensed for more than a few months make some of the mistakes and bad judgement calls that FSD currently does..


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

slacker775 said:


> I don't know that it's fair to say that it would 100% get into a collision. I've had many occasions where I have disengaged because it was being too timid/awkward and I just don't want to be 'that guy' annoying other drivers around me. At no time do I feel that it was heading for a collision. Just because it's doing something a bit wonky doesn't mean it's going to crash. From what I see on the display, it has a good handle on where the cars are in its immediate vicinity.


If you don't feel like it's EVER heading for a collision then let it do its thing. If the "too slow" is your concern, then apply a bit of throttle and it'll start to proceed (similar to how we used to have to pull the stalk or press the accelerator to advance thru a green light). I'm willing to wager a very large amount that you'd either A.) still have to disengage it because it'd be heading into a collision, or worse, B.) you DO get into a collision.

Don't fool yourself into WANTING it to be ready. Doing so, and then trusting it to do so, will not end well for you or anyone else with FSD. It simply ISN'T ready which is why we're all testing it (and will have to continue to do so for YEARS).


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## MJJ (Aug 7, 2016)

> it's been established that every American of legal age has the right to drive a car.


In California it is explicit that driving is a privilege, not a right. It's a right in Florida?


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

MJJ said:


> In California it is explicit that driving is a privilege, not a right. It's a right in Florida?


Sure, they say that, but how many people are driving around in California right now with more than 2 DUI's? Or people driving around with no license whatsoever who have been caught doing that more than once?

That kind of stuff happens because they go to court and claim that they have the right to drive a car for whatever reason and should be allowed to keep driving. And the courts affirm that by letting them do it.


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## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

MJJ said:


> In California it is explicit that driving is a privilege, not a right. It's a right in Florida?


Same in Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Texas - NOT a right, a privilege that musty be earned.


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

Klaus-rf said:


> Same in Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Texas - NOT a right, a privilege that musty be earned.


My point was originally that _via the courts_ when people are charged with multiple extreme violations still being allowed to drive, effectively those people are always guaranteed the right to drive. At least I thought it was commonly known that happens.

But rather than fight the tide to make that point, I'm just going to say I was incorrect, and that in every state in the U.S., every driver has passed rigorous testing requirements and are legally licensed drivers, and those who had their licenses suspended are safely off the streets. I'm sorry if I scared anyone with unproven conjecture.


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## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

JasonF said:


> My point was originally that _via the courts_ when people are charged with multiple extreme violations still being allowed to drive, effectively those people are always guaranteed the right to drive. At least I thought it was commonly known that happens.
> 
> But rather than fight the tide to make that point, I'm just going to say I was incorrect, and that in every state in the U.S., every driver has passed rigorous testing requirements and are legally licensed drivers, and those who had their licenses suspended are safely off the streets. I'm sorry if I scared anyone with unproven conjecture.


If you ever watch any of the court shows on TV, you'll learn quickly that there are unlicensed and uninsured drivers around every corner. This does not mean, however; that the courts condone this behavior. They don't. Unfortunately, the courts and police have lots and lots of bigger fish to fry.


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## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

shareef777 said:


> Thing is FSD would get into a collision on a majority of trips. I always intervene, wether it's to keep it from going into on-coming traffic or it making a left/right turn too sharp that it'd collide into other vehicles.
> 
> How many people do you think are using FSD for every commute without requiring intervention? Have you been engaging FSD on every trip from A to B without it disengaging? It simply can't do that today without getting into an accident. Pretty sure the worst driver isn't getting into an accident daily (hint: they wouldn't be a driver anymore if that were the case).


It is not perfect by any means, but I have had many, many successful rides from home to work and back without intervention...


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## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

In order to be truly useful, it must be near perfect.


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

Mr. Spacely said:


> It is not perfect by any means, but I have had many, many successful rides from home to work and back without intervention...


I've had exactly ONE, and had repeated that same exact route and have yet to replicate the drive.


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## Lchamp (Nov 10, 2019)

My drive this morning was more of a thrill ride than a comfortable ride. I just can't trust the car to do the right thing in traffic.


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