# What will be the "killer app" for Full Self-Driving?



## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

I have plain-vanilla Autopilot (not EAP), and for now, that's fine with me. From what I read in the forums, most of you who have EAP or FSD like it, but right now don't feel like you _need_ it; it's interesting, and sometimes makes things a little easier, but you mainly have it because you like pushing the technology forward and you like what it will be able to do some day.

We know the desired endpoint: L5 autonomy, which is full self-driving in all situations, not even requiring anyone to be in the car. But we also know that Tesla's philosophy is to get there a little at a time, with the steps along the way themselves being useful.

I want that L5 autonomy, and would gladly pay for it. But I'm trying to think what would make me consider the leap before that. At some point, there will likely be a development that will make people who aren't interested in beta-release futuristic features think "whoa--I need that!"

I've listed some possibilities in the poll, but would love to hear more. (Can I add the to the poll after it's posted? If so, I might do that.)

In the poll right now I've got a couple of options labelled "attention-free." That would mean it would be OK to, say, answer emails or watch a video, but if the car needs you, you'd need to be able to get back to paying attention within, say thirty seconds. Audi has a system something like that for traffic jams--when the traffic jam clears up, you need to retake control. It's possible to imagine something like that for limited-access roads (interstates, freeways, etc.), where the system gently gives you back control when you near your exit, or if a construction zone is ahead, or if a flying saucer lands in the road. The "monitored" option, on the other hand, means what NOA does now, just extended to more situations.

EDIT: The option "Door-to-door Navigate on Autopilot" is meant to represent extending current NOA functionality to surface streets. Thus, it would still require constant monitoring, and would not allow attention-free driving. Tesla describes the current NOA as "an active guidance feature for Enhanced Autopilot that, with driver supervision, guides a car from a highway's on-ramp to off-ramp, including suggesting and making lane changes, navigating highway interchanges, and taking exits. It's designed to make finding and following the most efficient path to your destination even easier on the highway when Autopilot is in use." Door-to-door NOA would extend this efficiency throughout the route, but it would be in the name of increased route efficiency rather than hands-free autonomy.

There are a couple of things I intentionally did not include in the poll. One is improvements to any features AP has already, because those will go to AP drivers too. I'm including in that improvements related to the FSD chip, because new owners will already have the chip even if they haven't paid for FSD. I understand that for owners of older cars (and yes, my October 2018 Model 3 is now an "older" car!) the new chip might be a powerful inducement just to get their AP to work better. But that's not what I'm focussed on.

I also didn't include anything safety-related, because that's not how Tesla rolls. If they come up with something that unambiguously improves safety, they give it to everyone, whether they have FSD or not.


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## orekart (Nov 15, 2018)

Cow / flotsam avoidance. I live on dirt roads in the country and big dumb animals are incompatible with unibody vehicle impact.


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## SoFlaModel3 (Apr 15, 2017)

$2,000 made me jump


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

orekart said:


> Cow / flotsam avoidance. I live on dirt roads in the country and big dumb animals are incompatible with unibody vehicle impact.


Are you saying you want _less_ cowbell? 

That won't be FSD, though. As Teslas get better at cow-detection, they'll include that in all their cars.


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## Ed Woodrick (May 26, 2018)

Last two weekends, 1000 mile trips each weekend.

Oh yeah, NoA with lane change made it nice.
I missed a few exits, but the car didn’t.


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## DanSz (Feb 1, 2019)

It's not on this list, but I think nighttime FSD is a pretty good killer app. Sleep while it drives.


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

I'm surprised that the winner so far is door-to-door NOA. 

To me, that sounds like a nightmare. NOA requires monitoring, at a minimum, and maybe confirmation and/or overrides. On highways is one thing, but the idea of doing that door to door sounds exhausting. "Is it going to turn at this street--maybe--it's signalling! Oh, wait, does it know this is a two way street? There's no dividing line. Oh, look, it's got it! Hold on--some kids playing ball in the road. What's it going to do now?" Even if it's getting 98% of it right, I'd be a wreck by the end of one trip. And I have a hard time believing that would really convince people to make the jump who haven't done so already.

I think to convince more people to make the jump, Tesla needs to focus on getting it to do some things near-perfectly, rather than more and more things that still need monitoring.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

DocScott said:


> To me, that sounds like a nightmare. NOA requires monitoring, at a minimum, and maybe confirmation and/or overrides. On highways is one thing, but the idea of doing that door to door sounds exhausting. "Is it going to turn at this street--maybe--it's signalling! Oh, wait, does it know this is a two way street? There's no dividing line. Oh, look, it's got it! Hold on--some kids playing ball in the road. What's it going to do now?"


Heh, yeah, it's going to be a lot like that at first. I could see using this for a commute. Watch the car like a hawk for the first several times to make sure it's going to get everything correct. If you find that it can handle it, then you can relax a bit. But I would be a bit fearful every time I'd try it on a different route.


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

I really don't understand the desire for door-to-door NOA:



> And I wouldn't consider myself having it till I can navigate door to door (which is the option I voted for).


How is that a big deal? Now, door-to-door L3, sure. And I kinda sorta understand NOA on highways, because you don't have to monitor/approve all that often. But door-to-door, where you've got to check on everything the car is doing? It seems marginal to me, at best. But obviously a lot of people disagree. Could one of you explain the appeal?


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

DocScott said:


> I really don't understand the desire for door-to-door NOA:
> 
> How is that a big deal? Now, door-to-door L3, sure. And I kinda sorta understand NOA on highways, because you don't have to monitor/approve all that often. But door-to-door, where you've got to check on everything the car is doing? It seems marginal to me, at best. But obviously a lot of people disagree. Could one of you explain the appeal?


just a couple possible reasons:
vision impaired
physical disability limiting driving skills
temporary health issue limiting driving skills (maybe a broken right leg/foot, migraine, dilated eyes)
'operate' car without a drivers license (under age, adult who has chose not to drive, senior no longer driving)

for just a few off the top of my head.


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

MelindaV said:


> just a couple possible reasons:
> vision impaired
> physical disability limiting driving skills
> temporary health issue limiting driving skills (maybe a broken right leg/foot, migraine, dilated eyes)
> ...


NOA doesn't address _any_ of those issues!

Tesla describes NOA as "an active guidance feature for Enhanced Autopilot that, with driver supervision, guides a car from a highway's on-ramp to off-ramp, including suggesting and making lane changes, navigating highway interchanges, and taking exits. It's designed to make finding and following the most efficient path to your destination even easier on the highway when Autopilot is in use." If you have door-to-door NOA, it's _still_ just an active guidance feature requiring supervision, and the purpose is efficiency, not compensating for issues with a driver's condition or ability.

When the car can drive _itself, _then it's no longer NOA but something else, and I presume it will be called something else.

I think maybe most of the other people who indicated door-to-door NOA in the poll above also were thinking true autonomy (at least L3) door-to-door.

It worries me if Tesla owners are conflating the two ideas. There's been a lot of discussion over whether the term "autopilot" is misleading. I've generally thought it wasn't...but this is making me rethink that. If even Tesla owners think that "door-to-door navigate on autopilot" means that a driver who would have difficulty driving safely without the system could drive using it, then there's a _huge_ problem with the terminology.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

DocScott said:


> NOA doesn't address _any_ of those issues!


There is currently no such thing as "door-to-door NOA", and because of that, there is some confusion and disagreement about what such a possible future feature will entail. So I think it's good to clarify exactly the feature set being discussed.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

DocScott said:


> NOA doesn't address _any_ of those issues!


I was replying to your comments asking what the use of DOOR TO DOOR NoA (presuming you meant that as FSD) would be good for. Not today's freeway NoA.


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

garsh said:


> There is currently no such thing as "door-to-door NOA", and because of that, there is some confusion and disagreement about what such a possible future feature will entail. So I think it's good to clarify exactly the feature set being discussed.


Agreed.

I would have thought that since there's currently a feature called NOA, but it's limited to highways, that door-to-door NOA would mean a similar feature extended along the whole trip. And in the original post that introduces the poll, I describe these choices as short of L5 autonomy. But any system which allows someone to operate a car without a driver's license is at least L4, and "door-to-door" without a driver's license sounds pretty close to L5 to me. But I'm obviously wrong--it's clear that many people would interpret "door-to-door NOA" as being functionally equivalent to "full self-driving," which in turn is perhaps (?) the same as "fully autonomous."

I've edited the post accompanying the poll to describe what I mean by "door-to-door NOA" more fully.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

the difference from L4 to L5 most see as L5 has zero limitations - IE it could take a rutted logging road up a forested mountain, while L4 will have some limitations or geofencing involved (maybe only can operate on paved streets). But L4 is fully autonomous within the locations it is able to operate without human interactions.


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