# When will we get Full Self Drive Beta and then RoboTaxis?



## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

In October of 2019 I predicted the following:



Mr. Spacely said:


> Here is my updated timeline (guess):
> 
> ~ October 2019 we can summon our cars in a parking lot and drive miles and miles on NOA!
> ~ v3 hardware upgrades to begin first quarter 2020
> ...


So far everything is right on track. I am assuming we start getting full self drive beta next week so that TSLA can realize profits in this calendar year. Robo Taxis in 2022 might be realistic?


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## SoFlaModel3 (Apr 15, 2017)

I am as big a Tesla fan as there is and yet I am still skeptical of Robotaxi because of all of the fringe cases. I am highly confident that with a driver behind the wheel the improvements to the FSD suite will be exceptionally good very soon though.


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## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

They will likely have something later next year in a very limited test zone. FSD has been improving a lot over the last month if you watch the videos. It’s taken longer than expected to get where we are but they seem to be into something now. But in any case I’m not participating in the robo taxi fleet, I value my car too much for that


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## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

As I maneuvered down a steep, unplowed road with 6” of snow this afternoon, I wondered how FSD/robo-taxi’s will handle this situation.


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

My guess is more than 2 years.

- Regulators don't think anyone will achieve this for years.
- Tesla FSD Beta looks to me like its more than a year behind Waymo and Cruise and they still have a ways to go.
- Dojo isn't supposed to be done till end of next year.

I've been watching some Waymo videos and its very fragile. A little bit of rain and it called it quits. Also they were temporarily selling Christmas trees in a parking lot and needed to be taken over by a remote operator. Maybe Tesla will do better in rain and temporary obstacles due to design differences. Waymo also was very timid and looked like it would let people walk and drive past all day long. I can see why locals would hate it and try to get by it as soon as possible. 

Also it doesn't look like a good passenger experience because it could be really slow. I think George Hotz is right that people might be willing to pay more to have a faster more consistent. There probably is a different threshold for robo-taxis. If my car is driving with no one in it to pick me up I can just have it leave a little earlier and then take over if the car is having trouble with traffic when I'm in it. But in a robotaxis you're stuck. It will have to be cheaper and will have a smaller market until they get the speed on par with a human.


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

I was just watching Elon's China talk from a few days ago and there were some interesting things in there. He said he figures they will not fully utilize the new FSD computer for another year. He brought up Dojo which again is a year out. He again was talking about feature complete by the end of the year. Now that they have released it to Youtubers we have a good idea how it works so we don't have to imagine what that means anymore. Then he said he doesn't know how much better it needs to be than humans but it's more than 1x. I believe he's talking about accidents but as I think about it that doesn't seem like the right way to think about it. If you look at Waymo it has a very low accident rate but needs a remote driver otherwise it will fail to get to its destination sometimes. I suppose Tesla could do that for its Robotaxis but would they do that for free for owners of FSD? I think Tesla has also talked about safety drivers. This would help them get established as a taxi service but it would also be a money losing venture for Tesla and wouldn't benefit owners.

I think if we look back in a year there will be a long list of things that they have mostly solved with FSD Beta but they will still have a long way to go. Right now we're not talking about edge cases. There are all sorts of typical everyday things it can't handle. Super curious if they release it to the wild or if we get some dumbed down version.

Edit: Watched an interview with Waymo and it does not do remote operation of the car apparently. Perhaps it can give it a suggested path? Watching rider videos, the remote assistant is required sometimes though.


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## Needsdecaf (Dec 27, 2018)

At the very least not until Tesla agrees to assume legal liability for anything that happens with the car while the FSD is engaged, and relieves the driver of any and all responsibility.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

Mr. Spacely said:


> In October of 2019 I predicted the following:
> 
> So far everything is right on track. I am assuming we start getting full self drive beta next week so that TSLA can realize profits in this calendar year. Robo Taxis in 2022 might be realistic?


I have lost confidence in FSD beta rolling out any time soon.

I wouldn't be surprised if robo-taxi comes out first.


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

There is another argument that goes again the George Hotz theory that Waymo gives for why people will want to use their service. They say it is more consistent in terms of the vehicle and driving style and its safer. Watching the videos I'm not sure they are there yet but I think it is true that people would sacrifice time(sometimes) and/or money for a better experience. Uber and Lyft can be a little rough at times. I've had many bad experiences and pre-pandemic mostly did not get the lowest level. I probably would use a Waymo for the same price as a Uber even if it did take a little longer sometimes. Tesla would also garner more money as an Uber service but I'm not sure how many people buying FSD want to drive people around. 

I'm sure everyone has their Uber stories but we had a guy in Toronto that drove us like a maniac across downtown during heavy rush hour. He was passing long lines of cars in the turn lanes and getting back in. It was impressive. But we were clearly on vacation and gave no indication we were in a hurry. We just couldn't wait for the bus because it was over 100 degrees F out. We got to our destination which was lovely Graffiti Alley and he asked if we wanted to drive down the tight alley with a bunch of people walking through. Needless to say we passed on that. The trip was a little scary and entertaining at the same time. You just never know what you're going to get. We've also met some really cool people who drive.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> I believe in the future....
> 
> Not having FSD will be the extreme minority - Especially when the fleet rolls out.
> 
> So....maybe v11 ( when it comes out ) will be for the future majority of all Tesla's.


I doubt very much many owners will turn their car into robotaxis. It's more likely that corporations like Uber and Lyft will buy them for this purpose. And how will Tesla justify a $10k FSD option when it starts selling the inexpensive hatchback Elon Musk has mentioned with a price bellow $30k? I can't see a mass adoption. Most people are not as passionate as we, first adopters, are on this forum. I had FSD on my M3, lost it when I traded for a Y, got EAP which has all that I like about Autopilot. Although the FSD betas are really cool, it doesn't add enough to my quality of life as a driver to justify its price and the fact that I have to buy it again each time I switch car. If I could buy it once and transfer it then I would reconsider.


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> I doubt very much many owners will turn their car into robotaxis. It's more likely that corporations like Uber and Lyft will buy them for this purpose. And how will Tesla justify a $10k FSD option when it starts selling the inexpensive hatchback Elon Musk has mentioned with a price bellow $30k? I can't see a mass adoption. Most people are not as passionate as we, first adopters, are on this forum. I had FSD on my M3, lost it when I traded for a Y, got EAP which has all that I like about Autopilot. Although the FSD betas are really cool, it doesn't add enough to my quality of life as a driver to justify its price and the fact that I have to buy it again each time I switch car. If I could buy it once and transfer it then I would reconsider.


Uber and Lyft cannot buy Tesla's and use them for their own robotaxis per Tesla's user agreement. Tesla also likes to be vertically integrated so letting someone else run their robotaxi network isn't in their DNA. I think Uber/Lyft would benefit Tesla in terms of their large market shares but Tesla has pretty good branding and will benefit from enormous free marketing from the news if they rolled something out. Owners may not put their cars on the market in large numbers but Tesla can build cars and put them on the network. Sort of a win/win at that point.

Totally agree with your EAP vs FSD point. For most people, the additional value over EAP comes when you don't need to pay attention. Some get value from beta testing.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> I doubt very much many owners will turn their car into robotaxis. It's more likely that corporations like Uber and Lyft will buy them for this purpose. And how will Tesla justify a $10k FSD option when it starts selling the inexpensive hatchback Elon Musk has mentioned with a price bellow $30k? I can't see a mass adoption. Most people are not as passionate as we, first adopters, are on this forum. I had FSD on my M3, lost it when I traded for a Y, got EAP which has all that I like about Autopilot. Although the FSD betas are really cool, it doesn't add enough to my quality of life as a driver to justify its price and the fact that I have to buy it again each time I switch car. If I could buy it once and transfer it then I would reconsider.


I'm not talking about people turning their cars into robotaxis.

Secondly - Uber and Lyft will not be able to have Tesla's as a part of their fleet - just like today.
There have been some people who have tried to cheat and Uber / Lyft their Tesla - only to be fined and removed by Uber and Lyft.

What I'm talking about is Tesla creating their fleet by themselves. That has been Tesla's goal all along. Tesla's fleet will be their own. Uber and Lyft will be out of business.

Tesla's fleet will initially be at least 2 million strong. More that the total number of Tesla's currently in existence.

This is why FSD is so important to Tesla right now. Tesla is training their fleet RIGHT NOW - and its being financed by US. 
Tesla could give a flying fig about what WE think about FSD. FSD is a long run objective as far as Tesla is concerned.

Genius IMHO.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

M3OC Rules said:


> Uber and Lyft cannot buy Tesla's and use them for their own robotaxis per Tesla's user agreement.


I thought it would be a large expense for Tesla to go it alone. Maybe Tesla could use the trade-ins as robotaxis.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> I thought it would be a large expense for Tesla to go it alone. Maybe Tesla could use the trade-ins as robotaxis.


Why would it be expensive?

How long would it take a 24 hour "ubering" vehicle to pay for it self? I'm not talking about what we pay for a model 3. They are getting a 23% rate of return on us. These cars could only contain half of the battery pack of todays Tesla's as they would exclusively be local.

Tesla has 20 billion in their savings account TODAY. They could easily make 2 million cars right now for their fleet with only a portion of their savings account.

Lets assume $2 per ride using 2 million cars. That will put Uber and Lyft out of business. Lets be extremely conservative. and say that each car provides ( on average ) 4 rides per day - 7 days a week. That would be a 3 Billion dollar business by itself.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

iChris93 said:


> Let's get this thread back on topic of this new build.


oops

I didn't see this until after my previous posts.

back on topic.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> What I'm talking about is Tesla creating their fleet by themselves. That has been Tesla's goal all along. Tesla's fleet will be their own. Uber and Lyft will be out of business.
> 
> Tesla's fleet will initially be at least 2 million strong. More that the total number of Tesla's currently in existence.


Everything I read so far regarding Robotaxis was about owners joining the Tesla Network. I don't remember Tesla saying that it wanted to build its own fleet. Musk was touting a 1M car network by the end of 2020 (which won't happen obviously). All those cars would have had to be provided by owners.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> Why would it be expensive?
> 
> How long would it take a 24 hour "ubering" vehicle to pay for it self? I'm not talking about what we pay for a model 3. They are getting a 23% rate of return on us. These cars could only contain half of the battery pack of todays Tesla's as they would exclusively be local.
> 
> ...


Tesla does not have yet the capacity to build that many cars in one year.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> Tesla does not have yet the capacity to build that many cars in one year.


One year?

Who said that?


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> Everything I read so far regarding Robotaxis was about owners joining the Tesla Network. I don't remember Tesla saying that it wanted to build its own fleet. Musk was touting a 1M car network by the end of 2020 (which won't happen obviously). All those cars would have had to be provided by owners.


Naahhhh. Watch his interviews. He speaks of it often.

Find an interview where he speaks about the reason there is no buy-out at the end of a lease. I can't remember which one that is.

Either way......its the FLEET w/FSD that will be the disrupter.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> One year?
> 
> Who said that?


Tesla has sold 1.1M cars in 2017-2020 including projected 182,000 for this quarter. I picked 2017 because it's probably the first year when the cars are equipped with the necessary hardware for FSD. If 10% of the owners decide to join the Network that's only 100k cars. Unfortunately I have not seem a survey about this so it's my guess. That means Tesla is short of 900k cars as per Musk multiple tweets about this upcoming service. The whole thing is a badly thought pipe dream imo.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> Tesla has sold 1.1M cars in 2017-2020 including projected 182,000 for this quarter. I picked 2017 because it's probably the first year when the cars are equipped with the necessary hardware for FSD. If 10% of the owners decide to join the Network that's only 100k cars. Unfortunately I have not seem a survey about this so it's my guess. That means Tesla is short of 900k cars as per Musk multiple tweets about this upcoming service. The whole thing is a badly thought pipe dream imo.


I mean....who said this had to happen in 1 year?

"Yeah....its a badly thought pipe dream" <----- That's why Tesla produced "short shorts" - as some other folks say the same thing about Tesla's accomplishments.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> I mean....who said this had to happen in 1 year?


Musk said it multiple times. Here's one link:

https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129...a-robotaxis-by-the-end-of-2020-where-are-they


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> Musk said it multiple times. Here's one link:
> 
> https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129...a-robotaxis-by-the-end-of-2020-where-are-they


Ok I see - you are talking about timelines.

_I'll as this to the entire form._

Has Elon ever missed a date of something rolling out? *ALL OF THE TIME*

now....

Has Elon ever not produced something he missed a date about? *NEVER*


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> I mean....who said this had to happen in 1 year?
> 
> "Yeah....its a badly thought pipe dream" That's why Tesla produced "short shorts" - as some other folks say the same thing.
> 
> View attachment 36570





Garlan Garner said:


> I mean....who said this had to happen in 1 year?
> 
> "Yeah....its a badly thought pipe dream" <----- That's why Tesla produced "short shorts" - as some other folks say the same thing about Tesla's accomplishments.
> 
> View attachment 36570


We'll see how everything unfolds in 2021. Like you I like Tesla but the valuation is out-of-this-world. But I would not bet against it.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> Ok I see - you are talking about timelines.
> 
> _I'll as this to the entire form._
> 
> ...


Well, if you're talking 20 years, then maybe


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> We'll see how everything unfolds in 2021. Like you I like Tesla but the valuation is out-of-this-world. But I would not bet against it.


hmm.....there is another company called .... whats that? hmmmm

SpaceX

Very soon.......Tesla might indeed be out of this world right along with their valuation -


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> Well, if you're talking 20 years, then maybe


LOL ....


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## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

How late can Elon be and still be credited with producing? My recollection is that he stated that he would personally ride coast-to-coast in a Tesla that needed no human intervention. 2 years later, I've got to say that he failed on this promise.

Please don't misunderstand me, I love my Tesla and I'm in awe of all that Elon has accomplished. Probably no one else on Earth could have done the same. But this doesn't excuse misleading promises. I have FSD and, for a variety of reasons, I'm glad I do. But I WAS misled by statements Elon made prior to my decision to pay for FSD.

My biggest issue is not with the current functionality of the car, I'm actually happy with that. My issue is that Elon continues to over-promise and under-deliver and doesn't seem to ever learn from these mistakes.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FRC said:


> How late can Elon be and still be credited with producing? My recollection is that he stated that he would personally ride coast-to-coast in a Tesla that needed no human intervention. 2 years later, I've got to say that he failed on this promise.
> 
> Please don't misunderstand me, I love my Tesla and I'm in awe of all that Elon has accomplished. Probably no one else on Earth could have done the same. But this doesn't excuse misleading promises. I have FSD and, for a variety of reasons, I'm glad I do. But I WAS misled by statements Elon made prior to my decision to pay for FSD.
> 
> My biggest issue is not with the current functionality of the car, I'm actually happy with that. My issue is that Elon continues to over-promise and under-deliver and doesn't seem to ever learn from these mistakes.


Over promise and under-deliver?

I have always seen Tesla as under promise and over deliver. Especially on things like production estimates and such.

I really can't see Elon as an under deliver-er and still selling more vehicles than the top 3 car manufacturers combined. Why is that happening if Elon/Tesla is so bad?

OR

Do the promises he delivers on FAR outweigh the ones he doesn't deliver on?
Do the promises he delivers on much more valuable than the one he doesn't deliver on?

I could care less if a Tesla drives him across the country without intervention.

I want the worlds safest car.
I want the 0-60 times.
I want no-gas.
I want the range.
I want supercharging.
I wanted a $704 stock price.

I have all of these things....and my P3D+ provides me with MUCH more than that.


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## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

Y


Garlan Garner said:


> Ok I see - you are talking about timelines.
> 
> _I'll as this to the entire form._
> 
> ...


I am merely responding to statements YOU made. By how much time can Elon miss a self-proclaimed deadline and YOU still claim that he has never failed to produce? The opposite of the boy who cried wolf is the boy who believes there are no wolves. Be wary of blind loyalty lest you lose the ear of all to whom you speak.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FRC said:


> Y
> 
> I am merely responding to statements YOU made. By how much time can Elon miss a self-proclaimed deadline and YOU still claim that he has never failed to produce? The opposite of the boy who cried wolf is the boy who believes there are no wolves. Be wary of blind loyalty lest you lose the ear of all to whom you speak.


lol Fine..... No problem.


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## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

I can’t help but feel that a lot of folks are reading the tea leaves incorrectly. Musk said there’d be 1M robotaxis on the road at the end of 2020 (I’m fully paraphrasing here) which is mostly correct. Tesla has built and delivered ~1M cars to-date with ‘FSD capable’ hardware, so all of those are ‘eligible’. Of course not all will be utilized in that manner but that doesn’t mean anything. Once robotaxi is ready, that’s when FSD pricing starts shooting up and Tesla moves away from being a car seller to being a ride sharing service. Why buy the car if you can just use it for $10-20 at a time, and Tesla is making a couple bucks off every ride? I would suspect some folks will buy up a small batch of cars around the turning point and run their own localized ‘branch’ of the robotaxi service so they can be getting their piece of the action in their town/city. No need to use your own personal vehicle and have other people be eating sloppy food and farting in it....


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## Needsdecaf (Dec 27, 2018)

Ridesharing, and subscription based car ownership so far has fallen on deaf ears with buyers. Cadillac, Porsche and Volvo have All had far less than stellar results. Porsche has just rebooted their service with a big push to be more successful. Americans, it seems, like owning their own car. But robotaxi / ride sharing is just one use case of the FSD goal.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

slacker775 said:


> I would suspect some folks will buy up a small batch of cars around the turning point and run their own localized 'branch' of the robotaxi service so they can be getting their piece of the action in their town/city.


Someone on this forum objected when I mention in a previous post that corporations are probably the most apt to do this: a folk running a small batch of cars is a corporation by all means, so why not a larger corporation - call it REBU if you want - owning a lot more cars, maybe thousands. Such a corporation is better at servicing the cars, cleaning the vomit, repairing the damages, recharging them, etc. I can't see why Tesla would object as long as it gets its cut.


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## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

FrancoisP said:


> Someone on this forum objected when I mention in a previous post that corporations are probably the most apt to do this: a folk running a small batch of cars is a corporation by all means, so why not a larger corporation - call it REBU if you want - owning a lot more cars, maybe thousands. Such a corporation is better at servicing the cars, cleaning the vomit, repairing the damages, recharging them, etc. I can't see why Tesla would object as long as it gets its cut.


And as long as it's used in the Tesla robotaxi service - barring specific wording in their TOS - that should be fine. They have already indicated that it couldn't be used in Lyft/Uber service, but that's where Tesla isn't getting a cut.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

Tesla? 

A cut? 

Really? Why?


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

slacker775 said:


> And as long as it's used in the Tesla robotaxi service - barring specific wording in their TOS - that should be fine. They have already indicated that it couldn't be used in Lyft/Uber service, but that's where Tesla isn't getting a cut.


I can see AVIS or Hertz buying cars and joining the Tesla Network, so there is no reason why Uber and Lyft couldn't be doing it under the same rules.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> I can see AVIS or Hertz buying cars and joining the Tesla Network, so there is no reason why Uber and Lyft couldn't be doing it under the same rules.


Why would Tesla allow that?

Tesla doesn't need anyone else for ride sharing.

Other people need Tesla.

Why would Tesla allow it? Why would they want to do this?


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> Why would Tesla allow that?


You seem to think, and forgive me if I got that wrong, that Tesla intends to have it's own fleet of robotaxis. Based on the news I keep reading about this service, Musk has said many times that he wants the *owners* to join the Tesla Network. That's how he's able to say that the Network will have 1M robotaxis in 2020 (sic). This is different than Waymo. The first quote below is quite interesting although at that point I'm not sure what the word "driver" means.



> But as Musk explained Wednesday, that is "really quite a small subset" of what may be to come:
> 
> "You can have the car be autonomous for you, you can... share it with friends and family, you can add or remove it from the network, you can have it be entirely in the network. I mean, if you're an Uber or Lyft driver you could be managing a fleet of 10 cars. Sort of seems like a shepherd tending the flock type of thing."​





> Tesla says that next year, it'll leverage a fraction of the millions of Tesla cars on the road to launch an autonomous taxi service powered by its Autopilot software - one that might compete with Waymo's eponymous Waymo One and other launched and forthcoming driverless ride-hailing programs.





> It's this part of the plan where it starts to become interesting. Tesla aims to roll out a smartphone app, similar to Uber, where users can hail a ride from Teslas in their area. Vehicle owners can specify times of day where they want their car to join the network, enabling them to be used when the owner doesn't need it. The owners can then earn money from their cars during the day.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> You seem to think, and forgive me if I got that wrong, that Tesla intends to have it's own fleet of robotaxis. Based on the news I keep reading about this service, Musk has said many times that he wants the *owners* to join the Tesla Network. That's how he's able to say that the Network will have 1M robotaxis in 2020 (sic). This is different than Waymo. The first quote below is quite interesting although at that point I'm not sure what the word "driver" means.


I just want you to answer my questions instead of talking about me and what I think.

Why would Tesla want Avis / Hertz / Uber / Lyft etc to fleet their cars?


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> I just want you to answer my questions instead of talking about me and what I think.
> 
> Why would Tesla want Avis / Hertz / Uber / Lyft etc to fleet their cars?


I'll answer very simply: it's because Musk said so ... many times. Read my quotes, they're all from Musk.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> I'll answer very simply: it's because Musk said so ... many times. Read my quotes, they're all from Musk.


The quotes you are making of Musk don't say anything at all about Hertz or any other 3rd party groups fleeting their cars.

Tesla Will Launch Chaperoned Robotaxi Fleet in 2021, says Loup Venture (tesmanian.com)

Tesla's robotaxi fleet will be 'functionally ready' in 2020, Musk says - Roadshow (cnet.com)

Tesla is making push toward fleet vehicles as cost of operation reaches tipping point - Electrek

Tesla plans to launch a robotaxi network in 2020 | TechCrunch

How more full articles do you want?


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> The quotes you are making of Musk don't say anything at all about Hertz or any other 3rd party groups fleeting their cars.
> 
> Tesla Will Launch Chaperoned Robotaxi Fleet in 2021, says Loup Venture (tesmanian.com)


That's just speculation on the part of the writer. No basis on what Musk has said in the past.



> Loup Ventures expect "Tesla to ease consumers into the future with a chaperoned robotaxi fleet."


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> That's just speculation on the part of the writer. No basis on what Musk has said in the past.


Please read all of the articles.

Tesla plans to launch a robotaxi network in 2020 | TechCrunch

Has it started? I don't think so.... However you wanted a quote from Elon..


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

A fleet of 1M robotaxis would cost Tesla north of $30B. There is a better way to use this capital ie roadster production, semi production, cyber production, new factories, etc. All those are very capital intense investment.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> Please read all of the articles.
> 
> Tesla plans to launch a robotaxi network in 2020 | TechCrunch


I did. Speculation.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> I did. Speculation.


Elons direct quote is speculation?

"I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year - not in all jurisdictions because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere" Musk said without detailing what regulations he was referring to. He added that he is confident the company will have regulatory approval somewhere next year.

Its not just about making cars. There's a whole lot more than that involved.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

The remaining step is the software, which Musk says will be "feature complete" and at a reliability level that we would consider that no one needs to pay attention, by the middle of next year.

"From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road," Musk said. "*The fleet wakes up with an over the air update; that's all it takes."*

Musk also noted at numerous times that the full self-driving and the robotaxi fleet will require regulatory approval. However, he didn't explain what kinds of regulatory approval is needed. The federal government does not have any laws regulating autonomous vehicles.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> Elons direct quote is speculation?
> 
> "I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year - not in all jurisdictions because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere" Musk said without detailing what regulations he was referring to. He added that he is confident the company will have regulatory approval somewhere next year.
> Its not just about making cars. There's a whole lot more than that involved.


Well, you posted a different article the second time.

He also said in that article:


> Tesla will enable owners to add their properly equipped vehicles to its own ride-sharing app, which will have a similar business model to Uber  or Airbnb . Tesla will take 25 percent to 30 percent of the revenue from those rides, Musk said. In places where there aren't enough people to share their cars, Tesla would provide a dedicated fleet of robotaxis.


So obviously he's not looking at having a fleet for the whole market, just some underserved areas.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> Well, you posted a different article the second time.
> 
> He also said in that article:
> 
> So obviously he's not looking at having a fleet for the whole market, just some underserved areas.


What? There are hundreds of articles quoting Musk about this. It doesn't matter.

No Avis / Hertz / Uber / Lyft. None of them

Its a Tesla fleet - owned by Tesla - run by Tesla - Controlled by FSD.

Period.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> What? There are hundreds of articles quoting Musk about this. It doesn't matter.
> 
> No Avis / Hertz / Uber / Lyft. None of them
> 
> ...


You're wrong. Period. Dropped mic.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> You're wrong. Period. Dropped mic.


LOL - its not about me. Read. Read. Read. Read.

I thought this was a mature conversation.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> LOL - its not about me. Read. Read. Read. Read.
> 
> I thought this was a mature conversation.


What conversation. You deny the possibility that people and organisations could buy the cars with the only purpose of putting them on the network even after reading Musk's quote. Obviously you've made up your mind, so there's no need to discuss this further.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> What conversation. You deny the possibility that people and organisations could buy the cars with the only purpose of putting them on the network even after reading Musk's quote. Obviously you've made up your mind, so there's no need to discuss this further.


I'm quoting Elon.

I don't own or run Tesla. He does.

I go with his statements.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> I'm quoting Elon. I haven't voiced my opinion.


Me too, so where does that leave us? Maybe Musk is looking at both possibilities?


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> Me too, so where does that leave us? Maybe Musk is looking at both possibilities?


No way.

Elon is not double minded like that.

Give me some full articles/links - like I provided.

Here's yet another Elon Musk Says Tesla Robotaxis Could Be Ready by the End of the Year - Robb Report


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> I don't remember Tesla saying that it wanted to build its own fleet.


Not sure of the exact details but Tesla does not allow you to buy leased vehicles at the end of a lease for this very reason.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> No way.
> 
> Elon is not double minded like that.
> 
> ...


This is the article. He mentions that he envisions people using the upcoming app to manage their small fleet of robotaxis.


> https://www.inverse.com/innovation/hail-tesla-robo-taxi





> "You can have the car be autonomous for you, you can... share it with friends and family, you can add or remove it from the network, you can have it be entirely in the network. I mean, if you're an Uber or Lyft driver you could be managing a fleet of 10 cars. Sort of seems like a shepherd tending the flock type of thing."


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

M3OC Rules said:


> Not sure of the exact details but Tesla does not allow you to buy leased vehicles at the end of a lease for this very reason.


Lease-End Options | Tesla

From the Tesla website.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> This is the article. He mentions that he envisions people using the upcoming app to manage their small fleet of robotaxis.


Absolutely - on who's network?

That is entirely the most important question. Who owns this Network that Elon is talking about?

Understand that this article is premaritally focusing on the use of FSD. Keep that in mind.

Also at the same time....be reminded that Tesla's can't be a part of the Uber/Lyft fleet.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> Absolutely - on who's network?
> 
> That is entirely the most important question. Who owns this Network that Elon is talking about?
> 
> ...


Let's table it until the first Self-Driving cars start going out on their own picking up customers.


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## Long Ranger (Jun 1, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> Why would Tesla want Avis / Hertz / Uber / Lyft etc to fleet their cars?


I don't have any opinion or insight on Tesla's actual plans here, but sometimes companies don't want to own all that inventory. Sometimes it makes sense to let someone else handle some of the inventory long as you get a decent profit from them using your network.

I found it surprising in 2019 when my local SC told me that they no longer owned many loaners, and that they had sold a bunch of Teslas to Enterprise and were renting them back as loaners.


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## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> Tesla?
> 
> A cut?
> 
> Really? Why?


Because they'd be operating the network. Same as if you start driving for Uber or Lyft now. They are running the entire backend, thus they take a cut.


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## Needsdecaf (Dec 27, 2018)

It is now 1/1/21. My prediction is that by 12/31/21, Full Self Driving is at best a Level 3 system. And at worse, an excellent Level 2 system. In other words, no full autonomy. This could be self imposed technical, regulatory or both.

This tracks well with Mr. Spacely's prediction.

I do not see a Level 4 car being allowed in 2022. Based on the intro of the article that I will find the link for elsewhere, I don't see regulators having the faith to allow them.

If they are in a position to do so.

Edit, here is the article.

https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/public-comment-automated-driving-system-safety-principles


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## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

Needsdecaf said:


> It is now 1/1/21. My prediction is that by 12/31/21, Full Self Driving is at best a Level 3 system. And at worse, an excellent Level 2 system. In other words, no full autonomy. This could be self imposed technical, regulatory or both.
> 
> This tracks well with Mr. Spacely's prediction.
> 
> I do not see a Level 4 car being allowed in 2022.


It is now 12/29/2021. Over two years ago I laid out a timeline for FSD. While a few months behind, my car drives itself across the county without intervention (most of the time). But I have to agree that there will be no RoboTaxis in 2022. Maybe by 2023?


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

I think we're still in the major problem stage with potential for major improvements each update and still not feature complete. My prediction for 2022 is we get feature complete except for ramps and parking meters and no pulling off the road for emergencies. Although hopefully added street parking to not have a Cruise situation. I think there will be much less herky jerky and pulling out half way into an intersection with indecision. I think it will still not handle turns onto busy roads reliably. I don't think we'll have good poor weather handling of slippery or snow covered roads. I don't think they will have solved speed control issues due to bad map data, lack of anticipation, lack of awareness to other drivers speed although I think they will solve the slowing/accelerating before a speed change to some degree. I don't think they will have solved the bad map data lane issues. I do think they will get to a single stack. I think by the end of 2022 they will announce their solution to map data. It could be their own maps or some sort of learning from the fleet.

Based on the laundry list of issues I see at the end of 2022 I think 2023 will still be fixing those issues and perhaps getting to a fairly reliable solution. Then 2024 will be working on and showing ability to handle true edge cases. Hopefully at this point there will be enough confidence that some people actually prefer it to manual driving. At that point they can start looking at disengagements. Then they can start making a case for regulatory approval. I don't think accident data is enough until you get to the point where disengagements are very, very low. 

I'll predict 2024 they have robo-taxis with drivers as part of the Tesla Network and 2025 robo-taxis in restricted by weather conditions.


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## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

M3OC Rules said:


> robo-taxis with drivers


What might this be?


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

FRC said:


> What might this be?


Basically Uber. They will need to get all the software in place to support robotaxis so they could very well launch that before driverless robotaxis are ready. I think they have said as much if I remember right. It could come in 2022 so maybe my 2024 is a bad guess.

https://electrek.co/2021/12/03/tesla-integrating-car-sharing-app-network/


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