# Speculation: Why are Tesla firmware updates so unevenly distributed?



## Brokedoc (May 28, 2017)

I know that there are several software people on this forum so I wanted to throw this question out to the group because it makes ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE to me!

My Model X is currently running about 5-6 builds behind the current version. Every time I see a new version pop up on the boards, I anxiously look forward to getting it but I think my last update was at least 6 weeks ago. Also, there are times that I may be a few versions behind and when I DO EVENTUALLY get the update, I'm updated with a version that's 2 or 3 versions old and not the newest version.

There doesn't appear to be any logical reason why Tesla does it this way. As a layperson, I would expect a new version to come out and as it is being distributed to the fleet, it may be staggered due to bandwidth reasons but I don't see why older versions would be sent out instead of the newest version.

I REALLY want to have the 2018.4.x so I can have the steering wheel heater stay on but I've been making sacrifices daily to the Tesla Gods and doing my rain dances without any success!!!! I think my next step is to plug into the Supercharger at the Service Center, connect to their wifi network and do my sacrificial dance to the Tesla UI Gods in their parking lot..... while naked...


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

Brokedoc said:


> My Model X is currently running about 5-6 builds behind the current version. Every time I see a new version pop up on the boards, I anxiously look forward to getting it but I think my last update was at least 6 weeks ago. Also, there are times that I may be a few versions behind and when I DO EVENTUALLY get the update, I'm updated with a version that's 2 or 3 versions old and not the newest version.
> 
> There doesn't appear to be any logical reason why Tesla does it this way. As a layperson, I would expect a new version to come out and as it is being distributed to the fleet, it may be staggered due to bandwidth reasons but I don't see why older versions would be sent out instead of the newest version.


Wow, 5-6 builds behind strikes me as unusual, almost to the point where I'd ask about it (without expecting a meaningful response, mind you). That said, there's probably a logical (if inscrutable) reason why it's lagging behind.

I have no particular insight into Tesla's release-management philosophy, but in general, for any software product, there are several factors that influence who will get a particular build and when:

*1. Overall priority of the build.* How urgent are the issues that the build addresses? Does it fix critical bugs that adversely impact the basic usability of the product (e.g. cars getting bricked), potentially on a wide scale? Does it contain new features or other enhancements that would radically improve the product quality for a large number of users? Or does the build only contain relatively minor bug fixes and enhancements that affect only a small proportion of users?

*2. Overall risk associated with the build.* What known issues, if any, does this build contain? Has testing revealed any regressions (i.e. zombie bugs back from the dead) or unintended side-effects that result from the changes made in this build? What is the level of confidence in the results and coverage of the tests that have been performed?

*3. Specific priority / risk associated with the build*. Is this build more important for some groups of users than others? (e.g. a tweak to the arcs that the Model X's Falcon Wing Doors trace doesn't really apply to Model S or Model 3) Similarly, does the build contain more risk for some user groups than others?

*4. User tolerance thresholds.* Whether through self-identification or some other means, are there certain sub-segments of users who are more tolerant of bugs, glitches, and "beta" features than others? (e.g. Tesla employees, long-time owners, opted-in beta testers) Are there sub-segments of users who have demonstrably lower tolerance for these types of issues? (e.g. owners with frequent service-center visits or who have encountered significant, show-stopping issues in the past)

(There are others, I am sure, but those four are the main ones that are at the forefront of my mind whenever I plan a new release in my day job.)

From this set of factors, you can plan a multi-stage deployment process that aims to minimize risk while maximizing user acceptance and satisfaction at full deployment. Riskier builds will generally start with a limited initial rollout among fault-tolerant users followed by extensive validation, while urgent-priority builds may be "fast-tracked" to a larger initial segment of users in order to mitigate serious widespread issues confirmed in the field.

Whatever the plan for a particular release, it will almost certainly vary from one build to the next, and in some cases where a builds need extensive in-the-field validation prior to wide release, the plan may actually be dependent on / intertwined with the deployment status of a prior build. Naturally, this can get quite complicated in short order, which is why release management is starting to emerge as a formal discipline in software engineering, rather than something a product manager "just eyeballs" before making a decision.

So for your particular situation, feel free to ask the Service Center about when you can expect to receive the latest build, but I would generally advise patience, and trust that your Model X will receive the update when it's ready. I mean, what good is a heated steering wheel that stays on if your Falcon Wing Doors keep bumping into the car parked next to you, or if the car randomly fires up the Model X-Mas Light Show every night at 3:00am?


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## Maevra (Oct 24, 2017)

@Brokedoc have you tried to call Customer Support to request the update? I know they don't normally push updates just by request, but if you are very behind, maybe your latest update is in limbo (happened to me a while back).

Tell them you are very behind on updates and could they please run a diagnostic test just to see if you have a failed update or one that didn't completely download that is blocking the queue.


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## Brokedoc (May 28, 2017)

Maevra said:


> @Brokedoc have you tried to call Customer Support to request the update? I know they don't normally push updates just by request, but if you are very behind, maybe your latest update is in limbo (happened to me a while back).
> 
> Tell them you are very behind on updates and could they please run a diagnostic test just to see if you have a failed update or one that didn't completely download that is blocking the queue.


Thanks for the suggestion. I think I'll try that before dancing naked in the Service Center parking lot. It's pretty cold in New York right now!!! :snowboarder:


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## msjulie (Feb 6, 2018)

W/o knowing who has purchased EAP and FSD this is a guess - though perhaps reasonable... my car is still running 2017.50.13 and service tells me there is nothing newer. I did not opt for the above software so if bug fixes are in those areas, that would make sense. 

I do want to know why some can turn on the front seater heaters via the phone app and I still can't - first world sadness.


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## Maevra (Oct 24, 2017)

msjulie said:


> I do want to know why some can turn on the front seater heaters via the phone app and I still can't - first world sadness.


The pre-heated seats can't be triggered manually via the app.  They appear only as part of the defrost/pre-heat option and seem to need a certain temp to activate. I only ever saw it trigger on our car once, so likely the car just doesn't think it's cold enough where we are. Maybe fellow owners in much colder temps have seen it more often.


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## msjulie (Feb 6, 2018)

> The pre-heated seats can't be triggered manually via the app


oh bummer, first world sadness


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## theloneranger08 (Sep 29, 2017)

The update that included summon and cabin overheating protection came out weeks ago but I still haven't gotten it. I know that they do updates in batches but going weeks without an update is pretty frustrating. I've heard of people waiting monmon... Really hoping Elon fulfills his promise to allow us to request an update soon. 

What are y'all's experiences?


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

theloneranger08 said:


> The update that included summon and cabin overheating protection came out weeks ago but I still haven't gotten it. I know that they do updates in batches but going weeks without an update is pretty frustrating. I've heard of people waiting monmon... Really hoping Elon fulfills his promise to allow us to request an update soon.
> 
> What are y'all's experiences?


It varies, and when some releases start rolling out they find a bug, and you never get that version. The most recent 2018.24.1 was like that for me. Only about 20% of Model 3s got that version before they switched to 2018.24.7. So no big loss.

I know this because I subscribe to Teslafi for $5 a month, so I can watch as updates come out and roll out to other Teslafi members.

You should make a friend with your local Mobile Service Advisor. I emailed mine Tuesday and requested a push. Within the hour she replied thusly:

"I have just deployed firmware to your Model 3. Please let me know if that was successful and if there is anything else I can do for you. Thank you."


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## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

theloneranger08 said:


> The update that included summon and cabin overheating protection came out weeks ago but I still haven't gotten it. I know that they do updates in batches but going weeks without an update is pretty frustrating. I've heard of people waiting monmon... Really hoping Elon fulfills his promise to allow us to request an update soon.
> 
> What are y'all's experiences?


As much as I want the latest and greatest, I'm more than willing for someone else to test it out so it can be improved before I get it.


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## SoFlaModel3 (Apr 15, 2017)

It can take up to “a couple of months” for a software update to go fleetwide per my service advisor.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

And this is IMHO a very good thing. So that if a bug does crop up in the real world that didn't show up in testing, it doesn't affect that many people.


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## JWardell (May 9, 2016)

A good thing for everyone but those of us that like to live on the bleeding edge...wish I could get on Elon's release fork!


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## GDN (Oct 30, 2017)

I truly like the SW releases vetted, but inside have to wish they did roll a little faster. I get needing to get the bugs worked out.

21.9 is the only release I've had so far, and I'm thinking that had the brake update in it, so I think Tesla pushed that one harder and faster because it was a big public issue. Still hoping to get some Summon love soon. 

I don't subscribe to Teslafi, but they make their update page available to everyone, I've started watching it and posting results some. 

S and X started getting a new 26. release yesterday, but no 3's. And no S or X has received 24.7, but it is still rolling SLOW.


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## theloneranger08 (Sep 29, 2017)

John said:


> It varies, and when some releases start rolling out they find a bug, and you never get that version. The most recent 2018.24.1 was like that for me. Only about 20% of Model 3s got that version before they switched to 2018.24.7. So no big loss.
> 
> I know this because I subscribe to Teslafi for $5 a month, so I can watch as updates come out and roll out to other Teslafi members.
> 
> ...


I thought that you have to take the car into the service center to get an update. A mobile service rep can push it wirelessly?


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## zosoisnotaword (Aug 28, 2017)

It was delivered with 14.7 or something like that. I never got 14.13, but when 18.1 rolled out I got it the second day (with the hidden cabin overheat menu), and then got 18.2 and 18.3 immediately as they were available.

Got my windshield replaced, they had the car about two weeks and it came home around June 8 with 21.9, which was newly released at the time. I thought I was in the early group for updates, but not a peep has been heard from the week 24 series. I'm still on 21.9. I just want access to the A/C overheat option since I charge for free at work all day.


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## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

Is there a "waiting period" after taking delivery of a new vehicle before it will start to receive updates?

I took delivery on 7/13. I am still at 18.14, whereas according to TeslaFi most of the fleet is at least at 21.9 by now. Just wondering if this is to be expected, or is there a setting to enable updates that I need to set?


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## SoFlaModel3 (Apr 15, 2017)

NOGA$4ME said:


> Is there a "waiting period" after taking delivery of a new vehicle before it will start to receive updates?
> 
> I took delivery on 7/13. I am still at 18.14, whereas according to TeslaFi most of the fleet is at least at 21.9 by now. Just wondering if this is to be expected, or is there a setting to enable updates that I need to set?


As it was explained to me, updates can take upward of "a few months" to reach the entire fleet. There is seemingly no rhyme or reason to who gets it and when (or at least nothing we can discern).

There are 2 ways (maybe 3) to get updates...

1) Patience and just wait for it
2) Have service work performed
3) Rumor is connecting to Tesla WiFi may push things along


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## aquadoggie (Feb 23, 2018)

I took delivery in March and got at least 3 updates within the first couple of months or so, up to 18.3. I've been stuck on that ever since. The rep at I got when I called basically told me to pound sand and wait. I really want the cabin overheat protection, given that it's a high of 104 in Austin today...


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## AnthonyR (Apr 27, 2018)

Hi, can some one please help me figure out how to turn auto updates off??
When I set up my 3 I turned it on thinking updates would happen automatically, but now I would like to actually see when they arrive so that I know a new update is to be installed.


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## Sumiguchi (Jun 3, 2018)

SoFlaModel3 said:


> 3) Rumor is connecting to Tesla WiFi may push things along


Doh.. .need an update so that I can connect to wifi first.


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## Sparky4life (Jul 27, 2018)

My 3 had 24.9 installed when I picked it up yesterday. This morning it updated to 24.11 despite the fact that 26.3 is available. Why didn't it go to the latest release instead of an old one? Does every update need to be installed in order?


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## Derik (Jul 26, 2017)

Lots of us (including myself) are still on 21.9.

I don't think anyone really knows how they roll out the new software to cars.


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## Sparky4life (Jul 27, 2018)

Derik said:


> Lots of us (including myself) are still on 21.9.
> 
> I don't think anyone really knows how they roll out the new software to cars.


But have you ever been updated to a version that wasn't the latest at the time? That's the part that seems strange to me.


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## littlD (Apr 17, 2016)

There are times when latest has an issue, like recently with 26.1. It was paused and 24.8 was the next update.

Offering again my blog post in "Life with Middie" concerning how Tesla seems to be rolling out updates:
https://teslaownersonline.com/threads/life-with-middie.7044/page-3#post-123408


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## littlD (Apr 17, 2016)

Sparky4life said:


> My 3 had 24.9 installed when I picked it up yesterday. This morning it updated to 24.11 despite the fact that 26.3 is available. Why didn't it go to the latest release instead of an old one? Does every update need to be installed in order?


No need for "in order".

There have been some reports of people failing update with 26.X, so maybe that's the reason. Hard to say.

I have heard there's a Battery Management firmware update happening as well, so maybe they're dependent on each other

https://teslaownersonline.com/threa...-26-1-62e5afa-7-20-18.7786/page-8#post-128220


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## Technical48 (Apr 29, 2018)

Here's my firmware history thus far:

Delivery on 7/14 with 24.7
Upgraded to 26.1 on 7/25
Upgrade (to 26.3?) scheduled for tonight


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## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

Technical48 said:


> Here's my firmware history thus far:
> 
> Delivery on 7/14 with 24.7
> Upgraded to 26.1 on 7/25
> Upgrade (to 26.3?) scheduled for tonight


Mine:

Delivery on 7/13 with 18.14
That's it.

Wondering if something is stuck on my car. Tomorrow will be 3 weeks since delivery. If I get to 4 maybe I'll call up service to see if they can request a push to my car.


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## mkg3 (May 25, 2017)

Took delivery on 7/6/18 with 24.1
Have not been updated since - getting tired of Homelink failing all the time and having to reboot......


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## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

NOGA$4ME said:


> Mine:
> 
> Delivery on 7/13 with 18.14
> That's it.
> ...


Just got a software update notification. Maybe Tesla is monitoring this forum and hooked me up!


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## Dag (Sep 12, 2017)

History for my Model 3. Firmware versions in bold are installed when visiting a service center.

2017.50.12 - Dec 29th
2017.50.13 - Dec 31st
*2018.4.8 * - Feb 23rd
2018.4.9 - Mar 6th
2018.10.5 - Mar 27th
2018.12.1 - Apr 13th
2018.14.13 - Apr 20th
*2018.18.3* - May 23rd
2018.18.13 - May 26th
2018.21.9 - Jun 12th
*2018.24.7* - July 10th


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## GDN (Oct 30, 2017)

Dag said:


> History for my Model 3 this far. Firmware versions in bold are installed when visiting a service center.
> 
> 2017.50.12 - Dec 29th
> 2017.50.13 - Dec 31st
> ...


Very nice first post, looks like someone owes you 26.3 !!


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## Dag (Sep 12, 2017)

GDN said:


> Very nice first post, looks like someone owes you 26.3 !!


Thanks! Mainly active'ish on TMC, but lately I've been stalking here. Wish I can save my download points for V9  instead of the remaining 8.0, we shall see.


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## GDN (Oct 30, 2017)

Dag said:


> Thanks! Mainly active'ish on TMC, but lately I've been stalking here. Wish I can save my download points for V9  instead of the remaining 8.0, we shall see.


I said the same thing just earlier today, I'll be happy sitting on 26.1 now and save up to be one of the 9.0 guinea pigs.


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## panpanbebe (Feb 14, 2019)

"Not everybody is going to get this version of software. " so this is the beta version?


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## iChris93 (Feb 3, 2017)

panpanbebe said:


> "Not everybody is going to get this version of software. " so this is the beta version?


No, but sometimes they stop a release due to bugs and not everyone gets it before the release is stopped. No one really understands how they choose to push each update.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

panpanbebe said:


> "Not everybody is going to get this version of software. " so this is the beta version?


They'll send this version to a small percentage of users.

If it's found to have issues, they'll likely create a 2019.8.5 and send that out to another small percentage of users.

In the meantime, they may end up adding some small feature, and create a 2019.12.1 build for it, and send that out to a small percentage of users.

And every once in a while, they'll decide that a particular build is good enough to become the new "baseline", and they'll upgrade the majority of users (but still not all users) to that particular build.


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

garsh said:


> They'll send this version to a small percentage of users.
> 
> If it's found to have issues, they'll likely create a 2019.8.5 and send that out to another small percentage of users.
> 
> ...


I suspect that sometimes Tesla is doing something like A/B testing. In other words, there might be an implementation they can do one of two ways. Perhaps the stop light warning is a bit more aggressive in one version than another. Or two versions have the microphone stay live for a different amount of time after you press the button. Etc.. It's not clear in advance which way is better; neither is "buggy"; they're just a bit different.

So label one, say, 8.3, and the other 8.4. Give 8.3 to some cars, and 8.4 to others, and see what happens under real-life conditions. Once Tesla decides which way is better, go with that in the next major iteration (12.1 or whatever). In that case, there's no need to "upgrade" people from 8.3 to 8.4, because 8.4 isn't necessarily an "upgrade." Of course, maybe they'll decide that 8.4 is clearly better, and start shifting people over en masse from 8.3 to 8.4. In theory, if I'm right, they could go the other way too, but I think that would be too upsetting to people who thought they were being "downgraded," so instead they'd probably just clone the 8.3, call it 8.5, and "upgrade" people from 8.4 to 8.5. All that is speculation on my part, but it seems consistent with what we have been seeing in these roll-outs.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 8 is supposed to be the week of the year in which that firmware was finalized, right? So the different 2019.8.x's are best thought of as different versions made at roughly the same time, _not_ as progressive improvements.

I think a lot of angst is generated by misunderstanding that.


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

DocScott said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 8 is supposed to be the week of the year in which that firmware was finalized, right? So the different 2019.8.x's are best thought of as different versions made at roughly the same time, _not_ as progressive improvements. I think a lot of angst is generated by misunderstanding that.


I read somewhere that it's the week of the year in which the firmware is first built (which is why we're still seeing new 8.x builds in week 14), but either way, I agree that it creates confusion, because the version number alone tells us nothing about the makeup of that firmware build. Classic example was 2019.5.2, which, despite following 2019.5.1, was a beta release that seemed to have been built from an old 2018.48.x version (i.e. it was missing features/fixes that had been implemented since then). Then 2019.5.3 and 2019.5.4 followed, and they were the next iterations of 2019.5.1, not 2019.5.2.



DocScott said:


> I suspect that sometimes Tesla is doing something like A/B testing. In other words, there might be an implementation they can do one of two ways. Perhaps the stop light warning is a bit more aggressive in one version than another. Or two versions have the microphone stay live for a different amount of time after you press the button. Etc.. It's not clear in advance which way is better; neither is "buggy"; they're just a bit different.


While I wouldn't rule it out completely, my outsider's impression is that Tesla's firmware development process isn't sophisticated (or patient) enough to allow for proper A/B testing by the general public. Proper A/B testing takes time to collect and analyze feedback, and requires a development methodology that can easily integrate changes to already-shipped code without introducing bugs, regressions, and other unintended behaviors (i.e. automated testing with excellent coverage). I'd like to think that Tesla has such a system in place, but given the number of regressions and odd behaviors that we've seen introduced in some 2019.5.x and 2019.8.x builds, I'm not as sure that this is the case.

Also, from a pure version-number perspective, with A/B testing, I also think we'd see more "dot" releases with consecutive numbers, and more even (and contemporaneous) distribution between the different A/B firmware versions. We would also see more cases of cars "upgrading" to firmware with lower version numbers, because anytime the "A" version won, anyone on the "B" version (with a presumably higher version number) would be migrated to the "A" version if "B" were determined to be unacceptably buggy.

We do know that there are "development" builds that certain Tesla employees (Elon in particular) can install, and it's possible (probable?) that there are multiple development builds floating around at any given time. If there's any A/B testing going on, I think it's happening at this "development build" stage, with the possible exception of major changes / new features (e.g. Enhanced Summon) that Tesla feels warrant wider acceptance testing by members of the beta program. (In those cases, the beta program members alone could represent the entire "B" group.)

Once a firmware version gets to the "release candidate" phase, I think what typically happens next is this, based on what I've seen in TeslaFi as new builds roll out:

1. Firmware gets installed by our "canary car" in Nevada (and/or with other employee/trusted cars) for final acceptance testing.

2. If no issues are found within the test fleet, the firmware gets pushed out to X% of the general public fleet over Y days, where X and Y are a function of the build's urgency and perceived "risk" (i.e. how significant are the changes that we've made? how many known issues are there, and how severe are they? and how severe could any "unknown" issues be, given the changes made?). Riskier and more urgent builds will have smaller X and/or larger Y, while more stable and incremental builds will have a larger X and/or smaller Y.

3. If any issues are found within the public fleet, the rollout process can be slowed or suspended while the engineering team performs additional analysis, or it can cancelled entirely if the issues are severe enough to call for a new build.

4. If no issues are found after Y days, X increases to a larger percentage of the fleet and Y becomes a shorter length of time, based on the updated perception of the build's urgency and risk. The process repeats from step 2 until the build is rolled out to everyone.


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

Bokonon said:


> I read somewhere that it's the week of the year in which the firmware is first built (which is why we're still seeing new 8.x builds in week 14), but either way, I agree that it creates confusion, because the version number alone tells us nothing about the makeup of that firmware build. Classic example was 2019.5.2, which, despite following 2019.5.1, was a beta release that seemed to have been built from an old 2018.48.x version (i.e. it was missing features/fixes that had been implemented since then). Then 2019.5.3 and 2019.5.4 followed, and they were the next iterations of 2019.5.1, not 2019.5.2.
> 
> While I wouldn't rule it out completely, my outsider's impression is that Tesla's firmware development process isn't sophisticated (or patient) enough to allow for proper A/B testing by the general public. Proper A/B testing takes time to collect and analyze feedback, and requires a development methodology that can easily integrate changes to already-shipped code without introducing bugs, regressions, and other unintended behaviors (i.e. automated testing with excellent coverage). I'd like to think that Tesla has such a system in place, but given the number of regressions and odd behaviors that we've seen introduced in some 2019.5.x and 2019.8.x builds, I'm not as sure that this is the case.
> 
> ...


But there tends to be a step 5: once the firmware is installed on 50-60% of cars, installation slows dramatically, so that cars on previous versions need to wait to skip over until the next version.

It seems unlikely that they _always_ find issues at 50% that they didn't know about at 10%. And it also doesn't seem likely to me that so many cars are just unable to upgrade for one reason or another, because there always seem to be a lot of people posting that they skipped a major roll-out like that, but got a later one.

Do you have thoughts why there seems to be a cap around 60%?


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

DocScott said:


> But there tends to be a step 5: once the firmware is installed on 50-60% of cars, installation slows dramatically, so that cars on previous versions need to wait to skip over until the next version.
> It seems unlikely that they _always_ find issues at 50% that they didn't know about at 10%. And it also doesn't seem likely to me that so many cars are just unable to upgrade for one reason or another, because there always seem to be a lot of people posting that they skipped a major roll-out like that, but got a later one.
> Do you have thoughts why there seems to be a cap around 60%?


I haven't noticed any "caps" or consistent slowdowns around any particular percentage. The rate at which any given version is rolled out can (and does) ebb and flow, though. Although only Tesla knows the exact reasons why, I think we can make some reasonable inferences just from looking at TeslaFi's software tracker and reading the firmware threads here.

Looking at 2019.8.x as an example... We first saw limited public releases of 2019.8.1 and 2019.8.2, both of which never made it past 1 or 2%. They were followed by 2019.8.3, which ended up going wide-release, peaking at over 1000 installs on March 27th, only to be slowed to 360 installs on 3/28, 123 on 3/29, and a trickle afterward. Just prior to the slowdown, we saw several reports here in the 2019.8.3 firmware thread about issues that people were having (e.g. issues with USB power/ports, phantom braking, etc. ), along with reports that a software update that had previously been available was no longer available. On 3/29, 2019.8.4 appeared with about 30 installs (~1.2%), then quickly ramped up to about 16% on 3/30 and 22% on 3/31. There was a brief pause on 4/1 (+3.5%) before another big push on 4/2 (+24%), and something of a slowdown today (+5% so far).

Though it's unclear to me whether the rollout of 2019.8.4 is being slowed down in response to a new issue that has been discovered, or the impending rollout of the new NoA update announced today, it doesn't seem like a stretch to conclude that the issues discovered during the rollout of 2019.8.3 caused it to be "pulled" due in favor of 2019.8.4. I think if 2019.8.3 and 2019.8.4 were A/B tests, you would have seen:

1. Parallel rollouts of 2019.8.3 and 2019.8.4 in order to minimize the number of variables between the test groups.
2. A roughly equal number of cars installing 2019.8.3 and 2019.8.4.
3. Few (if any) cases where a car running 2019.8.3 would be updated to 2019.8.4 during the test period.


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

Bokonon said:


> I haven't noticed any "caps" or consistent slowdowns around any particular percentage. The rate at which any given version is rolled out can (and does) ebb and flow, though. Although only Tesla knows the exact reasons why, I think we can make some reasonable inferences just from looking at TeslaFi's software tracker and reading the firmware threads here.
> 
> Looking at 2019.8.x as an example... We first saw limited public releases of 2019.8.1 and 2019.8.2, both of which never made it past 1 or 2%. They were followed by 2019.8.3, which ended up going wide-release, peaking at over 1000 installs on March 27th, only to be slowed to 360 installs on 3/28, 123 on 3/29, and a trickle afterward. Just prior to the slowdown, we saw several reports here in the 2019.8.3 firmware thread about issues that people were having (e.g. issues with USB power/ports, phantom braking, etc. ), along with reports that a software update that had previously been available was no longer available. On 3/29, 2019.8.4 appeared with about 30 installs (~1.2%), then quickly ramped up to about 16% on 3/30 and 22% on 3/31. There was a brief pause on 4/1 (+3.5%) before another big push on 4/2 (+24%), and something of a slowdown today (+5% so far).
> 
> ...


It's certainly not a plain vanilla "textbook" A/B test, so you can call it something else if you prefer. What would you call Amazon's little price moves on its products? Those are done as a form of testing, but they aren't done in parallel, and they aren't always done with a roughly equal number of people exposed to each price. But the price change isn't done because there's evidence that the first price isn't working well; it's done for comparison purposes. So it's more like an A/B test than a "bug fix."

The way in which 8.3 and 8.4 differ most from a comparison test is that 8.3 went disproportionately to US Model 3's, while 8.4 went much more heavily to S's, X's, and cars outside the US. But that's also weird if 8.4 is a bug fix--why are Model 3's in the US least affected by whatever the bugs are?

Also, if 8.4 is a bug fix for 8.3, why were there so many 8.3 installs after the 8.4 rollout started? Why not just halt 8.3 cold turkey?

A similar question from an early set: if 5.15 had bugs that 5.25 fixed, why were so many 5.15 cars left sitting around for so long after 5.25 rolled out?

As for the "cap," since I bought my Model 3 in early October 2018, my recollection is that 2018.50.6 peaked somewhere around 40-60%, then the same was true for 2019.5.15, then 2019.8.3, and now 2019.8.4 is slowing down as well as it approaches that range. (And 2019.8.5 just appeared) I do agree that some of the early 2019.4 and 2019.5 were widely reported to have broken features which were fixed in subsequent releases, and the pattern of their rollouts matches what you describe.

I'll freely admit I'm puzzling over these patterns. But I really don't think releases from the same build week (e.g. the 2019.8.x series) are always or even often subsequent waves of bug fixes. If that were true, then Tesla often leaves very large numbers of cars languishing with known bugs for which they've provided a fix to many cars. Plus I don't usually see consensus on these message boards as exactly which bugs were fixed with each new iteration; it generally seems to be the case that for some people lane-holding in AP gets better, and for others worse; some people experience new system resets, while for others the problem stops; etc..


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## GateFather (Nov 1, 2018)

I'll preface this by saying that I understand _it is _incredible that they update the cars with meaningful features, over the air, for free. So take this more with a grain of salt and as a random thought than a true "complaint."

I like getting new toys/software first and in most things I'm interested in, I enjoy being an early adopter. I _like _the process of catching bugs and helping companies I care about by notifying them to the issues I find. That being said, when it comes to Tesla software roll outs, I'm unfortunately last to or close to last to receive new updates because of where I live (NJ/East Coast). As I understand it, Tesla rolls out their software from West to East, likely in order to stagger the release so as not to overwhelm their software distribution servers with a suddon onslaught of cars attempting to download the new software all at once. THAT makes a ton of sense and they're doing it right.

Where I think they could improve is alternating the groups and sequence of distribution from release to release. Wouldn't it be nice if every rollout was based on a rotating schedule. Maybe West to East then East to West and maybe even Central to West/East? It would be nice to get the software towards the beginning of its release vs. days after. Thoughts?


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## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

I think your assertion that software rollout goes from west to east is false. I have been both at the front and tail end of software rollouts (I live in the east). I also can't answer your survey, not only because my answer varies, but because it's hard to measure what "after release" means, and the timeframes are way too short anyway. I would consider anything within a week of when a given distro appears to go into wide release as "soon". I've had to wait multiple weeks before for a software update. And then bam, I get two in a row and I'm one of the first 1% to get the latest update.


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## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

I agree that Tesla’s method/prioritization of OTA updates can be frustrating, but I do think they have their own logic to it, and it varies for different updates. Sometimes we can see that logic, like when they did cold weather updates first for those who live in northern climates. And the Sentry update seemed to preferentially go to California, which is where there were a lot of well publicized break-ins. Sometimes certain countries preferentially get an update, which can make a lot of sense as there are different issues to be addressed in Europe vs US vs China.

People who have Teslafi can see how soon they get the update compared to most people (or rather, other Teslafi users.) I don’t know how anyone else knows where they are in the pecking order. If they are judging it based on this forum, I’m sure most people think they get updates after everyone else. That’s because Elon mentions an update well before it is actually released, as a few people get it they start talking about it, but it’s usually weeks (and sometimes months) for it to roll to everyone.


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## GateFather (Nov 1, 2018)

NOGA$4ME said:


> I think your assertion that software rollout goes from west to east is false. I have been both at the front and tail end of software rollouts (I live in the east). I also can't answer your survey, not only because my answer varies, but because it's hard to measure what "after release" means, and the timeframes are way too short anyway. I would consider anything within a week of when a given distro appears to go into wide release as "soon". I've had to wait multiple weeks before for a software update. And then bam, I get two in a row and I'm one of the first 1% to get the latest update.


Added an option for varies each time. I'd be curious to see if that becomes the popular answer. After new software first begins hitting the general population of vehicles is what I consider "after release."


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

I just got 15.8.4 yesterday (5 days after the thread appeared here), and had 5.15 before that, so I missed all the versions in between. I'm on wifi, I think my car's update schedule was thrown off by a Mobile Ranger who forced an update back in October.


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## GateFather (Nov 1, 2018)

JasonF said:


> I just got 15.8.4 yesterday (5 days after the thread appeared here), and had 5.15 before that, so I missed all the versions in between. I'm on wifi, I think my car's update schedule was thrown off by a Mobile Ranger who forced an update back in October.


My car is still on 8.3 as of right now - never even got 8.4


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## zztops (Jan 7, 2019)

Can you add one: West Coast - Weeks after release.

Still on 5.15 and 2 customer support reps even said they tried pushing me the update, but had to be connected to wifi and works wifi doesnt work too well out in the lot

edit: grammar


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## GateFather (Nov 1, 2018)

zztops said:


> Can you add one: West Coast - Weeks after release.
> 
> Still on 5.15 and 2 customer support reps even said they tried pushing me the update, but had to be connected to wifi and works wifi doesnt work too well out in the lot
> 
> edit: grammar


Sure you have to be connected to WiFi but I have Gigabit connection speeds in my garage where my Tesla sits and it doesn't help me get them any faster. It comes when it comes.

Side note: when it does arrive, the 45 minutes it usually quotes is closer to 20-30min though


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## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

GateFather said:


> My car is still on 8.3 as of right now - never even got 8.4


At this time only 35% of Model 3 owners are on 8.4. You are with the largest group, 42% on 8.3. A healthy 17% are still on 5.15.


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## GateFather (Nov 1, 2018)

Bigriver said:


> At this time only 35% of Model 3 owners are on 8.4. You are with the largest group, 42% on 8.3. A healthy 17% are still on 5.15.
> View attachment 24355


Wow, good insight! I think my "view of the Tesla software world" is skewed because I work with 2 guys who are in the Beta program and follow more than 1 forum/twitter pages that are Tesla related. So it seems to me that the entire world has the new versions before I do when that's likely not actually the case.


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## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

Here's my history BTW (minus something I had to redact):










I can't remember which of those was the v9.0 update, but I was definitely at the very beginning of that one. I might've been close to the beginning of 2019.5.15 as well (within a week anyway, for what that's worth). But other times I am way at the tail end (or skip over entire releases). I think it's fairly random, and really not much you can do about it.


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## epmenard (Mar 5, 2019)

your poll is flawed...I can't even answer. I get updates weeks after official release, I'm talking no less than 2, often, a full month goes by. Some owners were reporting installation of the 2019.8 and I had yet to receive the 2019.5.


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## RichEV (Sep 21, 2017)

GateFather said:


> Added an option for varies each time. I'd be curious to see if that becomes the popular answer. After new software first begins hitting the general population of vehicles is what I consider "after release."


I track my delay days from the date of first posting on this forum. Mine vary between 0 and 10 days (3 4 1 1 3 0 10 0 0 7 4 4). I started to get nervous with the 10-day delay for V46.2.

The average is 4.1 so I voted for 3-5.


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## GeoJohn23 (Oct 16, 2018)

NOGA$4ME said:


> Here's my history BTW (minus something I had to redact):
> 
> View attachment 24356
> 
> ...


And.... as a comparison, here is mine -- you can see that while we both updated 48.12.1 within a day of each other, we were 5 days apart in 5.15 -- and even more interesting, all the rest only 1 of us got but not the other..... I'm West Coast (just a few miles from the Tesla Factory in Fremont).


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## sduck (Nov 23, 2017)

DocScott said:


> It's certainly not a plain vanilla "textbook" A/B test, so you can call it something else if you prefer. What would you call Amazon's little price moves on its products? Those are done as a form of testing, but they aren't done in parallel, and they aren't always done with a roughly equal number of people exposed to each price. But the price change isn't done because there's evidence that the first price isn't working well; it's done for comparison purposes. So it's more like an A/B test than a "bug fix."
> 
> The way in which 8.3 and 8.4 differ most from a comparison test is that 8.3 went disproportionately to US Model 3's, while 8.4 went much more heavily to S's, X's, and cars outside the US. But that's also weird if 8.4 is a bug fix--why are Model 3's in the US least affected by whatever the bugs are?
> 
> ...


Would it be possible to move this (off topic) discussion to it's own thread instead of taking up space in this thread? It's interesting, just not related to version 2019.8.4. Or perhaps move it to this thread - https://teslaownersonline.com/threads/tesla-software-rollout-strategy.12228/


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## Ed Woodrick (May 26, 2018)

GateFather said:


> Sure you have to be connected to WiFi but I have Gigabit connection speeds in my garage where my Tesla sits and it doesn't help me get them any faster. It comes when it comes.
> 
> Side note: when it does arrive, the 45 minutes it usually quotes is closer to 20-30min though


If you don't believe that being connected to Wi-Fi helps you get it faster, then disconnect for a few months. At lease with most of the update mid-year last year, non-Wi-Fi cars were dead last.

Also, I think that you may find that 75% of the Tesla owners catorgize themselves, just as you did. Only a very few don't want to be first.

And by the way, your poll is WAY off. Release times are in the neighborhood of 1-8 weeks for the fleet. And that's after the release is in general availability. In the last year, I can only think of one, maybe two releases that went fleet wide in 1-2 weeks.


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

sduck said:


> Would it be possible to move this (off topic) discussion to it's own thread instead of taking up space in this thread? It's interesting, just not related to version 2019.8.4. Or perhaps move it to this thread - https://teslaownersonline.com/threads/tesla-software-rollout-strategy.12228/


Yep! There's another, older thread floating around where much of this has been discussed before. As soon as I have a minute to track it down, I'll merge it over there to help keep this thread focused on 8.4.


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

I suspect that there's some aspect of comparison testing that enters in to the release strategy. Most people seem to think that point releases are bug fixes (e.g. 8.4 is 8.3 with some bugs fixed). But the rollout strategy suggests to me that Tesla _wants_ multiple versions to be driving around at the same time. It can't just be server load that leaves a lot of cars on an older version for weeks. Instead, I'm guessing that Tesla is gathering data on "how does this work out"? That would be particularly true when they want to observe how people use a feature: for example, how does having Sentry Mode influence people's charging patterns? Point releases might then sometimes include small tweaks which may or may not be "improvements": e.g., should blind spot warning be more or less sensitive?

There's certainly some bug fixes that come up in point releases too, and occasionally new major features. But the rollout strategy makes the most sense if part of the differences are due to comparison testing.


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

I believe one point of confusion is when some people (like me) are in a much later update group, and Tesla switches out the actual update before that group gets it. For instance I would have been really late for 8.3, except Tesla patched it, and my late 8.3 became an early 8.4.

In other words, it looks like all of the updates are on a group rotation schedule, regardless of version. Whenever your group comes up, you get whatever is the latest firmware on the server at that moment. If 5.15 is out, and you’re in the last possible group, you’d probably jump straight to 8.4. Likewise, if you’re in the first group, you might still be stuck with 5.15 when most people have 8.4, but then you’ll be first to get the next one.


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## bernie (Jan 5, 2018)

Here’s a possible pattern I’ve observed with problems getting updates to install. 

The last 3 updates on my TM3 LR FSD and TeslaFi subscription I’ve notice that if I get the random API data requests error (in the TeslaFi raw data log, under help, the day or so after the release of a new update I believe it’s an attempt to start the download for the update. I go to the car and reset (both steering wheel buttons and brake) moments later presto I get the update! Also make sure teslafi sleep modes are off, your car is in idle status,


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## Lady Sprite Blue (Mar 10, 2019)

Got 8.4 a few days ago. Live in CT. I just wait...and then it comes along eventually.


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

The rapid rollout of 8.5 is showing there isn't much of a server limitation on how fast new firmware can be pushed. Other versions were rolled out more slowly because Tesla _chose_ to roll them out more slowly.

One theory is that Tesla rolls out updates slowly to check for bugs. But that would suggest that rapid rollouts should only be for versions that are just bug fixes, where they've finally got everything ironed out. But 8.5 has a major new feature, which is likely to have lots of bugs immediately (NOA car-initiated lane changes). So that's not what dictates whether a roll-out is slow or fast.


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

The super-rapid rollout of 8.5 shows that other roll-outs are not slower because of server limitations, but because Tesla chooses for them to be that way.

Also, if the main reasons roll-outs are usually done gradually and to only part of the fleet is because of bugs, 8.5 shouldn't be a fast roll-out. If any feature would be expected to need feedback and to have bugs, it would be no-confirmation NOA lane changes!


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## GateFather (Nov 1, 2018)

Ed Woodrick said:


> If you don't believe that being connected to Wi-Fi helps you get it faster, then disconnect for a few months. At lease with most of the update mid-year last year, non-Wi-Fi cars were dead last.
> 
> Also, I think that you may find that 75% of the Tesla owners catorgize themselves, just as you did. Only a very few don't want to be first.
> 
> And by the way, your poll is WAY off. Release times are in the neighborhood of 1-8 weeks for the fleet. And that's after the release is in general availability. In the last year, I can only think of one, maybe two releases that went fleet wide in 1-2 weeks.


I'm seeing based on the results and more reading that you're right. This poll basically boils down to "it varies" due to the nature of each release and how Tesla decides to propagate it to the fleet. Specifically with 8.5, I'll put my foot in my mouth since I received it last night haha


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

JasonF said:


> If 5.15 is out, and you're in the last possible group, you'd probably jump straight to 8.4.


I have to comically quote myself because of this tweet that Tesla posted this morning:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1113928681691332608
And I just got 8.4 this week. By the update logic I predicted, I won't get this week's update at all, but will get the one following it instead.


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## Kizzy (Jul 25, 2016)

Bernard said:


> There is no early list nor any late one either. And members of the early access program (beta testers) do not get priority access to wide-release firmwares -- they get separate, beta firmwares, with features to test that eventually turn up in some later wide-release firmware. With a few unexplainable exceptions, when you get a firmware upgrade seems mostly random -- you may be early on one release, late on another, never get a third....


I'm wondering if Tesla batches updates for VINs based on testing that has been completed on cars with a particular configuration of parts. As many of us know, Tesla is constantly improving their products outside of a fixed development cycle which can lead to many variations.

I'd love to see a series of surveys that capture when folks receive updates, what their configuration is, what their build date is, and compare folks in groups to see if they get updates at around the same time.


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

The roll-out strategy for 2019.8.6 is consistent with it having variations from 2019.8.5 (not necessarily improvements) that Tesla wants to compare, rather than "bug fixes" to 2019.8.5. If it were bug fixes, it would have gone wide. If it were bug fixes that didn't work, they would have fixed the fixes, and released a new version. Instead, 8.6 rolled out to about 5% of cars, and there's no obvious geographic, model, or AP identification of who got 8.6.


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## TesLA3XL (Sep 25, 2016)

Is there a longer wait for newer owners?

Mine is 21 days in service & still on 2019.5.5.
Garage has WiFi AP constantly on.


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## Ze1000 (May 22, 2018)

I still don't know how the Software Update piece works ... I would love to have a "Check for Update" button in there, but it doesn't.
Now I go into that tab twice a day to see if something comes up.


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

I know I'm a bit of a broken-record on this, but I really think the firmware update pattern is much more understandable if we assume that part of is intentionally _random_, in order to compare two modestly different implementations of a feature. For example, try the automatic wipers a little more or less sensitive, and see when people override.

Right now, we have a blip of 8.4 rolling out, along with some more 8.5, and a bunch of 12. If 8.6 were the latest-and-greatest bug fixes, surely there shouldn't be upgrades to 8.4 right now, right? Likewise, I doubt those people did the magic combination of things to earn 8.4 but not one of the other updates.

Sure, some of the updates are geographically or model targetted. But trying to read tea leaves beyond that is...like trying to read tea leaves.


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## Jay79 (Aug 18, 2018)

I don't think about it, I'll get an update when its my turn. Simple


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## Hugh_Jassol (Jan 31, 2019)

Ze1000 said:


> I still don't know how the Software Update piece works ... I would love to have a "Check for Update" button in there, but it doesn't.
> Now I go into that tab twice a day to see if something comes up.


I believe it's meant for people who can't/don't connect to wifi regularly. With that button you can tell if there is an update staged for your car. If so, it will tell you and you can can then start the download once you get to Wifi (or fire up mobile hotspot).

So in other words, you will get the update when you get it, just like before - except now there's a way for you to know when your car has been "chosen"


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## TesLA3XL (Sep 25, 2016)

TesLA3XL said:


> Is there a longer wait for newer owners?
> 
> Mine is 21 days in service & still on 2019.5.5.
> Garage has WiFi AP constantly on.


Well just as I was giving up 'hope' my 1st update arrived on my 25th day of ownership. LOL.

With my experience with Android updates, which is a controlled rolling method where Pixel owners got them first -& then all to the manufacturers, but with Tesla - truly random.


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## mixdup (Mar 8, 2019)

Okay, so here's my situation:

I don't charge at home, I charge at urban superchargers or at level 2 chargers around town. When I park at home I do have wifi, but when I'm at work or when I'm charging I do NOT have wifi. 

I'm stuck on 2019.5.15 f5def7e. For a car that I've only had for a month it's getting very frustrating that it's not updating.

So, my question is, does it only download firmware over wifi when you're charging, or will it do it while you're not charging? Is there anything I can do to get it moving? IE: I don't want to have it wait until it falls back to the last resort LTE download. Or, am I just at the tail end of the rollout and I have to eat it for now?


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## GDN (Oct 30, 2017)

You are likely just at the tail end. No real correlation to charging and Wifi, etc, at least none that is truly plotted and documented. We all have fun with it and guess and do crazy things like rebooting our cars, or waking them up, but none of it has any real impact on when the Wizard behind the curtain at Tesla selects your car to get the update.

There have been a few times where there was a true issue and a Technician needed to push SW to a car. You might be getting close to that and you might call and open a case to have it checked out, but at the end of the day, no one has a magic potent for getting the SW. 

A little over 2% of the cars are still running 5.15, so you are not last, although it can be frustrating.


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## Alighieri256 (Oct 14, 2017)

mixdup said:


> Okay, so here's my situation:
> 
> I don't charge at home, I charge at urban superchargers or at level 2 chargers around town. When I park at home I do have wifi, but when I'm at work or when I'm charging I do NOT have wifi.
> 
> ...


As GDN noted, nobody really knows the rhyme or reason behind who gets what FW when. One thing worth noting is that if your WiFi signal is weak, you'll have issues. My car went several months without an update and when I finally took it to the service center, they told me that the car had tried to download updates via WiFi 10+ times and failed due to poor signal. Because of this, I was told, they couldn't remote push an update. So I had to hang out at the service center while the car connected to their WiFi.

The upshot of this is that if the car 'thinks' it has WiFi, it won't attempt to download updates over LTE, presumably because Tesla has to pay for that, and would prefer not to. But if the WiFi it has is lousy, it won't download there either. I ended up buying a WiFi Mesh setup, and now it gets the wide releases in a reasonably timely fashion. This may or may not be your problem. 5.15 isn't exactly 'old' yet. But might be worth sitting in your car and running Speedtest through your phone to see just how good your WiFi really is in that location.

Edit: I should add that I have gotten updates when the car was not plugged in, so that is *probably *not what's going on.


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## mixdup (Mar 8, 2019)

Alighieri256 said:


> As GDN noted, nobody really knows the rhyme or reason behind who gets what FW when. One thing worth noting is that if your WiFi signal is weak, you'll have issues. My car went several months without an update and when I finally took it to the service center, they told me that the car had tried to download updates via WiFi 10+ times and failed due to poor signal. Because of this, I was told, they couldn't remote push an update. So I had to hang out at the service center while the car connected to their WiFi.
> 
> The upshot of this is that if the car 'thinks' it has WiFi, it won't attempt to download updates over LTE, presumably because Tesla has to pay for that, and would prefer not to. But if the WiFi it has is lousy, it won't download there either. I ended up buying a WiFi Mesh setup, and now it gets the wide releases in a reasonably timely fashion. This may or may not be your problem. 5.15 isn't exactly 'old' yet. But might be worth sitting in your car and running Speedtest through your phone to see just how good your WiFi really is in that location.


Okay, this actually applies pretty good to my situation. I moved my wireless access point to be closer to my balcony (in a condo) so I'd get better signal, but it's still not perfect, as my parking is directly underneath and there's a thick slab of concrete and I suspect steel between

I had planned on toying with putting some kind of AP outside on the balcony which would be directly above my frunk, which should help, or at the very least, when the weather is nice leave the door open and put my existing AP out there on a long ethernet cable


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## SMITTY (Jan 24, 2019)

I got my car in January... I don't get wifi at home being that my car is in a parking structure 4 floors below me... My very first firmware update came via LTE a couple days after I got my car (can't remember what FW release # it was). Fast forward to when 05.15 was released. I wasn't able to get it over LTE as i don't think many are pushed to LTE unless vital... I immediately was able to DL it the first time i hooked up to a wi-fi when visiting my dads place. Literally within 15mins of being connected to wi-fi i was prompted for the update... Fast forward to last week... after being on 05.15 for months it seems. Again, never connecting to wi-fi since being at my dads, i was able to snag some wi-fi outside of a friends place... Within 30mins i was prompted for update 2019.8.5.

All that said, the 2 times I've been on wi-fi, I've gotten updates.

Maybe its just been luck / perfect timing.


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## mswlogo (Oct 8, 2018)

I don't think you're on the tail end. When Tesla decides to roll out to the whole fleet it happens quickly. Like within a few days.
My guess is, is you have something that is preventing the update. Reboots sometimes help. You don't need to be charging to get updated.


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## Alighieri256 (Oct 14, 2017)

mixdup said:


> Okay, this actually applies pretty good to my situation. I moved my wireless access point to be closer to my balcony (in a condo) so I'd get better signal, but it's still not perfect, as my parking is directly underneath and there's a thick slab of concrete and I suspect steel between
> 
> I had planned on toying with putting some kind of AP outside on the balcony which would be directly above my frunk, which should help, or at the very least, when the weather is nice leave the door open and put my existing AP out there on a long ethernet cable


My situation is somewhat similar. My car sits in a garage on the 1st floor of my building, while my apartment is on the 3rd floor and offset by maybe 50 feet sideways. I tried hanging an outdoor access point off the balcony, but in my case, that didn't work because it still would have to penetrate the garage door. Also, I can't just leave the garage door open, because I share the garage with some other rando. When I set up the mesh system, I set one of the pucks on top of the garage door opener and plugged into the same outlet. Magic ever since. But sounds like the outdoor AP would work for you just fine if the car is parked outside.


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## FF35 (Jul 13, 2018)

If the updates are failing due to a poor WiFi signal, Tesla should notify the user via the app or on the screen. Not sure why it’s a big secret that you can only find out if you visit a service center or if a ranger visits.


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## Alighieri256 (Oct 14, 2017)

FF35 said:


> If the updates are failing due to a poor WiFi signal, Tesla should notify the user via the app or on the screen. Not sure why it's a big secret that you can only find out if you visit a service center or if a ranger visits.


Amen to that.


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## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

I can 100% confirm that charging has nothing to do with updates. Don't think I've ever happened to get an update while the car was plugged in.


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## Ed Woodrick (May 26, 2018)

mswlogo said:


> I don't think you're on the tail end. When Tesla decides to roll out to the whole fleet it happens quickly. Like within a few days.
> My guess is, is you have something that is preventing the update. Reboots sometimes help. You don't need to be charging to get updated.


I'll disagree with this. Tesla hardly ever pushes an update to everyone quickly. Of all the updates in the last 12 months, only about 2-3 have been pushed fleet wide quickly, most others take about 2 months to distribute.

Yes, there are always people on the tail end.


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## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

Only a month? Sheesh! My last 4 update timeframes:

36.2 -> 42.4: 47 days
42.4 -> 48.12.1: 42 days
48.12.1 -> 50.6: 35 days
50.6 -> 5.15: 51 days

Granted, one of those (or maybe it was an earlier one) was the big V9 update which I was one of the first to get, so I'm definitely not complaining. Updates are fun, but usually they don't contain a whole lot, and the newness wears off (for me at least) after a very short time.


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## mswlogo (Oct 8, 2018)

Ed Woodrick said:


> I'll disagree with this. Tesla hardly ever pushes an update to everyone quickly. Of all the updates in the last 12 months, only about 2-3 have been pushed fleet wide quickly, most others take about 2 months to distribute.
> 
> Yes, there are always people on the tail end.


They do a limited release for quite some time. Sometimes requiring multiple releases. Then once they open the flood gates. 95% of everyone is updated in a matter of a couple days.

It's quite obvious this is what they are doing if you have a app or service that tracks releases.

It has never been like 5% a day or something. It's been 1% stays that way for sometimes weeks. Then quite often, over a period of 24 hrs everyone gets it.

Now it might be limited by model or trim that sometimes effects things. And in some cases geography.

There is no "tail" on releases.


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

mswlogo said:


> They do a limited release for quite some time. Sometimes requiring multiple releases. Then once they open the flood gates. 95% of everyone is updated in a matter of a couple days.
> 
> It's quite obvious this is what they are doing if you have a app or service that tracks releases.
> 
> ...


I disagree. I've never seen a release go to 95% over a couple of days. To 60%, yes. But then it slows or stops, and there's a group of people left who sometimes get updates promptly but haven't gotten that one.

My theory is that they want to do comparison testing, which is different from bug testing. They might want to know, for example, whether people with FSD/EAP engage NOA more or less now that no-confirmation lane changes are available. But to _really_ know that, and not just see a difference because, say, it's spring rather than winter, they need to leave some people on an older version for a while. That's an example of a big chance, but they might want to know that kind of thing on smaller changes too (e.g., do people speed more if they change the font size of the speedometer?).


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## mixdup (Mar 8, 2019)

So another data point is that my car is now having trouble going to sleep. I'll park at work or at home and it doesn't go to sleep, or at least it takes quite a long time to do so. fingers crossed it's trying to download


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## mswlogo (Oct 8, 2018)

DocScott said:


> I disagree. I've never seen a release go to 95% over a couple of days. To 60%, yes. But then it slows or stops, and there's a group of people left who sometimes get updates promptly but haven't gotten that one.
> 
> My theory is that they want to do comparison testing, which is different from bug testing. They might want to know, for example, whether people with FSD/EAP engage NOA more or less now that no-confirmation lane changes are available. But to _really_ know that, and not just see a difference because, say, it's spring rather than winter, they need to leave some people on an older version for a while. That's an example of a big chance, but they might want to know that kind of thing on smaller changes too (e.g., do people speed more if they change the font size of the speedometer?).


It's possible they might do some of that. But if they can do 60% in 2 days they can do everyone in 4 days. My point is, it's not due to bandwidth limitations. And if they did a experiment like you suggest they would not just gradually bring in the last group over weeks. They would update them all and move on.

The "tails" are mostly self inflicted, due to broken/poor wifi or just broken cars (due to software or hardware).


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## PandaM3 (Apr 23, 2018)

I’ve had 4 failed update messages already with this latest update.

Car drives fine, everything works, just stuck with a warning car needs an update message on the screen.

Had a tesla ranger come to check things out and reset somethings with no resolution. Now I need to go to the service center. 

Wonder what needs fixing.

So that’s 2 weeks so far with this issue and another 3 weeks till the appt. So 5 weeks...


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

mswlogo said:


> It's possible they might do some of that. But if they can do 60% in 2 days they can do everyone in 4 days. My point is, it's not due to bandwidth limitations. And if they did a experiment like you suggest they would not just gradually bring in the last group over weeks. They would update them all and move on.
> 
> The "tails" are mostly self inflicted, due to broken/poor wifi or just broken cars (due to software or hardware).


I agree--I definitely don't think there are bandwidth limitations, and there's a lot of laggards that are due to issues with the cars (including what you describe + e.g. people away from their cars) and not the roll-outs. But for active users with good connections there are always some people who report they skipped a major release. For them, they sometimes never get a popular release but end up being one of the first to get the next big release. There's clearly not a technical problem there.


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