# FSD Getting Too Expensive? Here's An Idea Elon...



## Hollywood7 (Sep 14, 2017)

The current price to get FSD on your Tesla is $10,000. Elon says the price will continue to rise, because eventually it will be so good you can join your car onto the Tesla RoboTaxi Network & your car can make money for you while you sleep.

While this may be true; There are a lot of Tesla owners (like me) that have no plans to ever use my car as a RoboTaxi, but I really would like the ability to have my car drive me to work & back on it's own.

My idea is to keep the price of FSD at the current price of $10K (Which still seems like a high amount for any car option), & when it's available, charge people a set amount to join their car onto the RoboTaxi network; They would gladly pay the fee, knowing that their car will be bringing in an income for them, meanwhile, the rest of us can use FSD for our personal use.


----------



## SoFlaModel3 (Apr 15, 2017)

It will be interesting to see what happens. From my perspective, I anticipate Tesla will take a cut for the Robotaxi (like Uber). Another extension of that thought is that all cars with the requisite hardware can join the Robotaxi fleet whether they have FSD or not. Who knows what will happen, but I think it's quite clear that it is already unreasonably expensive and there is nothing close to a timeline that suggests when it will reach the functionality required to safely operate a Robotaxi. I love Tesla and I'm all in, but I'm also highly skeptical. In fact, I'm so skeptical that I believe our current cars can't reach Level 5.


----------



## Ed Woodrick (May 26, 2018)

FSD also reduces the need for a second or third car for many families.


----------



## GDN (Oct 30, 2017)

I believe we will see our cars do some remarkable things in the next couple of months and continue to improve on that for a couple of years, but the True Level 5 Robo Taxi is so many years in to the future I wonder if I will ever see it. What would be nice is that Elon would keep a reasonable price on FSD for those of us helping them test it and purchase it for ourselves. They are likely close to having a million cars on the road with the current hardware. Charge those buying now a reasonable fee for what is available. He can't even recognize the money as revenue anyway because he hasn't delivered. In the coming years they will start to put more than a million cars on the road PER YEAR. If they can do FSD with the hardware, radar and cameras already in the car (which we already also paid for) then increase the fees as he delivers. As much as I bought into this (twice) I see how we are crazy that we get duped into buying something for the future because he threatens with higher prices. I don't see it ever going above $10K and think it will have to drop personally. It is now at 1/6 th the price of most 3's and Y's sold and that will hold true for most Cybertrucks too. I figure this prices the majority of people out of purchasing it. So he isn't making the roads any safer because most won't buy it at these price points.

Here is a key takeaway too, if Tesla can make this work with the hardware already in your car, you may not need to purchase FSD to add your car to the Robo Taxi. Elon is smart enough and good enough he can turn FSD on when your car is available for Taxi services and Turn it off after it returns to your garage. For the convenience of you not buying it up front he may just take 70% of the revenue vs 40% if you bought and paid for it yourself. 

Either way - I think $10K has hit the ceiling and is likely already too high for a majority to adopt. I figure that price point is truly in the $5K to $6K range.


----------



## TomT (Apr 1, 2019)

How? I don't see how it would make any difference in our family...



Ed Woodrick said:


> FSD also reduces the need for a second or third car for many families.


----------



## SoFlaModel3 (Apr 15, 2017)

Ed Woodrick said:


> FSD also reduces the need for a second or third car for many families.


The car still can't be in 2 places at the same time. It would take a perfect setup to drop off 2 kids at different schools, 2 adults at work, and then be in a position to pick everyone up timely.


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

The entire Full Self Drive project has been bleeding money the last few years - paying for HW3 upgrades, not to mention engineering HW3 in the first place, and then re-writing the software. I believe the price increase is trying to earn that back. Once the spending on it stabilizes somewhat, the price might not go down, but I believe it will at least stop increasing, and maybe more options will be available like different tiers, or subscriptions.


----------



## Hollywood7 (Sep 14, 2017)

To add to this... I really think that the FSD purchase should stay with the owner. If I sell my Model 3 & then purchase a Model Y, Why do I need to repurchase FSD at the now higher price?

If the buyer of my Model 3 wants FSD, he can purchase it at the going price...

Tesla could even charge a “Transfer Fee” to cover any costs & even pull a little profit at the same time say $1,000?

Tesla could call it a “Customer Loyalty Program” I purchased FSD back in 2018, because I believe in the company; I think the company could do something for us...


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

My guess is they'll go back to charging $3-4k for AP (basic steering stop/go) and another $6-7k for FSD and market it as a "cheaper" alternative to the "all in FSD cost".


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

In our microtransaction and subscription world, I wouldn't be surprised to soon see subscription models or pay-per-use for Tesla features in the next year or two.

For instance you can see and activate full-self-drive, but you have to read a panel with the current rate for one-time-use, and click Agree. Basically it would be like paying for a taxi ride in the car that you own. That kind of makes sense, because Tesla is talking about you being able to buy FSD outright and then make money using your car as a self-driving taxi. So why shouldn't Tesla make money off of you using FSD to taxi yourself?

Same thing for NoA, Auto-Park, and Summon. If you really want to use it badly enough and you haven't pre-paid for it, it will ask you to Agree, and bill you a few dollars.

I woudln't think of that as such a bad thing, because most of those things I might just try once or twice a month, or every few months, but I don't see them as worthwhile to pay full price to activate. For instance I don't mind walking to the car...unless it's pouring rain. Maybe that one time, I might want to try out Summon, and have the car come to me, and it might be worth a per instance fee of $8 to try it just that once. Or if I need to go on a long, exhausting trip and I'm tired, turning on FSD at 80 cents per mile might feel worth it that day.


----------



## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

Hollywood7 said:


> ...I really would like the ability to have my car drive me to work & back on it's own.


I think the response from Tesla (Elon) would be: if you are looking for the car to drive you to work on its own, why does it have to be YOUR car? Why not just request a robotaxi from the fleet to take you to work? What is the advantage of it being YOUR car? If you are just looking for rides to work and back, save the $10,000 (or whatever the ultimate cost is) and just hire a robotaxi twice a day for your commute.

I'm not disagreeing with your proposal--it does sound reasonable--but it seems like Tesla's intent is to price it in such a way that the car itself is only secondary, and that the full system is more of a revenue generator, not an asset (which given the depreciation of vehicles, does make sense in a way).

This is a major paradigm shift. I'm sure that those of us that have always known car ownership will be unwilling to embrace it, but how about the upcoming generation? How about those in dense urban areas where car ownership doesn't make much sense anyway?


----------



## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

Tesla has already made it clear that they are going to take a cut of revenues from the RoboTaxi network. You cannot use it to run your own taxi service or use it on someone else's. Tesla will run the service and take a cut. So basically what you're paying for now is already only for personal use. All future talk is speculation. There is no guarantee on anything they say. Pricing can go up or down. They may require purchasing FSD to be on the network or just take a bigger cut. You may or may not benefit from buying it early. Some people have literally gotten zero benefit. It may or may not ever get to level 4/5. Unfortunately it's pretty hard to argue the current state of features is worth $10k especially since they are all bundled so if you only want one feature you still have to buy all the others.

ARK invest who does quite a bit of research on FSD is pricing in a 33% chance of Robotaxi service starting in 2024 according to some Youtuber.





So even if they do make 2024 that gives a lot of time in between for people to become impatient with pricing in the future. They will likely IMO do more unbundling and have more sales on FSD. As impressive as the FSD Beta is, it's not a driver assist feature. It's a very shiny toy. How many people want to get somewhere slower and have to monitor the car?

Edit: changed first sentence to be more accurate.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

M3OC Rules said:


> Tesla has already made it clear that they are going to charge to be on the RoboTaxi network.


Car owners won't be charged to join the network. They'll be given a cut of money earned by the car being placed into the network.


----------



## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

garsh said:


> Car owners won't be charged to join the network. They'll be give a cut of money earned by the car being placed into the network.


That's right. I edited my post. FSD pricing drives me crazy. Everyone is trying to come up with all these solutions because the current pricing is insane.


----------



## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

I think one helpful step would be to completely separate the HW3 upgrade from FSD.

It's a little weird that FSD costs the same for someone who _already_ has HW3 as for someone who needs the new chip, but didn't take advantage of the original offers.

So make HW3 $2500, and FSD $7500. And then offer subscription or single-use prices to those with HW3 but without FSD. And make FSD transferable to a new vehicle for a modest fee ($1000?).

The net effect is probably more revenue for Tesla, but also happier owners. And I continue to suspect that Tesla would rather have those HW2.5 cars upgraded anyway, for a variety of reasons.


----------



## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

DocScott said:


> I think one helpful step would be to completely separate the HW3 upgrade from FSD.
> 
> It's a little weird that FSD costs the same for someone who _already_ has HW3 as for someone who needs the new chip, but didn't take advantage of the original offers.
> 
> ...


The reason they have to charge the same for FSD with HW2.5 and HW3 cars is that they told the HW2.5 people they didn't need new hardware for FSD. The 2 months before HW3 entered production they told people there was no reason to wait for HW3 because they would be upgraded to it if they got FSD. Now there are lots of people with HW2.5 who think they need HW3 for better Autopilot/EAP. I can't say whether that's true now or will be true but it's clearly in contrast to what Elon said. I certainly would feel misled if there was a benefit to EAP with HW3 and I purchased during that timeframe.

I think there is no evidence they are trying to optimize near term revenue. I think the high price is part marketing and part them thinking FSD is right around the corner. They don't see the price as high. This is my concern with subscription model. If they over price the subscription it's still a bad deal unless you get a new car every two years. It's also the same mental games every retailer plays with sales and then coming price increases. This also allows them to boost quarterly results when they want. The thing I don't understand is why they don't sell the features that work now and optimize that revenue and then when FSD is ready they can still get that revenue. They could still let people pay to be beta testers. Basically like they originally did with EAP + FSD. Maybe a few options within EAP.


----------



## Kimmo57 (Apr 10, 2019)

The current cars' full self driving capabilities will always be limited until there will also be some kind of a retrofit self cleaning system for the cameras. In the winter conditions we have now it only takes minutes for the cameras get dirty. Also the low shining sun tends to blind the cameras.


----------



## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

Kimmo57 said:


> The current cars' full self driving capabilities will always be limited until there will also be some kind of a retrofit self cleaning system for the cameras. In the winter conditions we have now it only takes minutes for the cameras get dirty. Also the low shining sun tends to blind the cameras.


Maybe. But its already pretty resilient. The radar can get blocked by snow and ice but they have a heater on newer cars and maybe that won't be necessary some day. Autopilot works the majority of the time during the winter for me. It is pretty annoying when you lose the radar. We'll soon know how resilient the FSD beta is.


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

NOGA$4ME said:


> This is a major paradigm shift. I'm sure that those of us that have always known car ownership will be unwilling to embrace it, but how about the upcoming generation? How about those in dense urban areas where car ownership doesn't make much sense anyway?


The car industry in general (even General Motors) has been trying to convince us for the last few years that car ownership will become unattainable by all but the very rich in the future, so it pays for automotive companies to build self driving or gig taxi networks of their own, and let people subscribe to taxi services.

Problem is, have you looked at the Uber rates lately? For taxi services, those are bargain basement. If you live in an average suburb, it will cost you about twice what a car payment would be just to get to work and back home every day. That leads me to believe their future strategy is either only taking urban dwellers into account (who also have to pay extra for parking, and travel shorter distances to work) or that the auto industry _actually expects us to pay twice as much to get around without owning the car_. And to accomplish that, they plan on doubling or tripling car prices so they really _are_ unattainable.


----------



## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

Kimmo57 said:


> The current cars' full self driving capabilities will always be limited until there will also be some kind of a retrofit self cleaning system for the cameras. In the winter conditions we have now it only takes minutes for the cameras get dirty. Also the low shining sun tends to blind the cameras.


Check this out. The current software still drives with many of the cameras completely blocked.


----------



## Kimmo57 (Apr 10, 2019)

M3OC Rules said:


> Maybe. But its already pretty resilient. The radar can get blocked by snow and ice but they have a heater on newer cars and maybe that won't be necessary some day. Autopilot works the majority of the time during the winter for me. It is pretty annoying when you lose the radar. We'll soon know how resilient the FSD beta is.


Let's hope for the best. Currently it's also common to lose even the TACC due to front cameras fogging, despite the heater.


----------



## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

Kimmo57 said:


> Let's hope for the best. Currently it's also common to lose even the TACC due to front cameras fogging, despite the heater.


I definitely have issues with the front radar getting blocked with snow and ice and I agree losing TACC is super annoying especially when there is no basic cruise control fallback. But I don't recall having issues with the front camera fogging although I think I've read about it on this forum. Maybe that would be worth asking the service department about. I have not tried Tesla's recommendation of Rust-Oleum Never Wet Top Coat over the radar area of the bumper but I might try that this winter.


----------



## Maynerd (Mar 17, 2018)

I'm kinda of pissy about the price continuing to go up while I wait for the Model Y with 3rd row of seats. I put my money down on the first preorder date and I'm just sitting here twiddling my thumbs waiting for Tesla to produce the Y with 3rd row seating. So I'm getting penalized for Tesla taking their sweet ass time. I wish the FSD pricing was locked for those who preordered.


----------



## GDN (Oct 30, 2017)

Maynerd said:


> I'm kinda of pissy about the price continuing to go up while I wait for the Model Y with 3rd row of seats. I put my money down on the first preorder date and I'm just sitting here twiddling my thumbs waiting for Tesla to produce the Y with 3rd row seating. So I'm getting penalized for Tesla taking their sweet ass time. I wish the FSD pricing was locked for those who preordered.


The FSD price is locked for those that pre-ordered, you should be OK at the price you locked in at - guessing that was likely $7K? We've been told the same for the Cybertruck - it was $7K at the time and if you added to your reservation you are locked at that price.


----------



## Maynerd (Mar 17, 2018)

GDN said:


> The FSD price is locked for those that pre-ordered, you should be OK at the price you locked in at - guessing that was likely $7K? We've been told the same for the Cybertruck - it was $7K at the time and if you added to your reservation you are locked at that price.


OH? I think I did add FSD. So that's great news! Thanks that makes me feel somewhat better even though 7k is still hefty!


----------



## Ed Woodrick (May 26, 2018)

TomT said:


> How? I don't see how it would make any difference in our family...


Did you see me say that it alleviates the need? Or did I say reduce the need? It may not fit your needs, but it may fit others.

Prime example of two person household where the commute for one or both may be small. In that case, it would probably be easy to have a single car that could pick either person up as needed.

Of course right now, I can't think of when both of my cars were out of the garage at the same time in the last 6 months!


----------



## VoltageDrop (Sep 16, 2018)

I have enhanced autopilot in my M3.... last June I got an email from Tesla offering me a reduced price of $3000 to upgrade to FSD. I (stupidly) decided not to take advantage of it. Next thing I know is July 1st rolls around and now the upgrade is showing as a cost of $5000 in the app. Now I was kinda annoyed that I didn’t go with the reduced offer and was like.....whatever. Fast forward to present.....app shows the upgrade as costing $ 7000 now......well what the #@[email protected]! ....

I kinda equate this situation to (at least for those of us who trade/invest in the stock market) when you are looking at a stock to buy and it goes up a little and you think....I‘ll wait until it comes back down some to buy in....but it keeps going up and up and up....and you realize at some painful point.....you missed the damn boat....... Hmm... that is funny..... TSLA stock does this a lot too!!!


----------



## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

VoltageDrop said:


> I have enhanced autopilot in my M3.... last June I got an email from Tesla offering me a reduced price of $3000 to upgrade to FSD. I (stupidly) decided not to take advantage of it. Next thing I know is July 1st rolls around and now the upgrade is showing as a cost of $5000 in the app. Now I was kinda annoyed that I didn't go with the reduced offer and was like.....whatever. Fast forward to present.....app shows the upgrade as costing $ 7000 now......well what the #@[email protected]! ....
> 
> I kinda equate this situation to (at least for those of us who trade/invest in the stock market) when you are looking at a stock to buy and it goes up a little and you think....I'll wait until it comes back down some to buy in....but it keeps going up and up and up....and you realize at some painful point.....you missed the damn boat....... Hmm... that is funny..... TSLA stock does this a lot too!!!


Keep in mind its still beta. Unless you want to beta test, play with the best adult toy ever, or show off to your family and friends (hopefully soon) you're not missing out on anything. It could still be years out or never. There is still a lot of risk in buying it.


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

As per Electrek:

"(...) Musk said that he would also consider letting Tesla buyers transfer ownership of the Full Self-Driving package to another car if they were to upgrade, but he hasn't made a final decision on that possibility, which many Tesla owners have been asking for."


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1340717435998130177


----------



## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

I just want the FSD I paid for in October 2019.

Bob Wilson


----------



## Jason F (Jul 6, 2018)

VoltageDrop said:


> I have enhanced autopilot in my M3.... last June I got an email from Tesla offering me a reduced price of $3000 to upgrade to FSD. I (stupidly) decided not to take advantage of it. Next thing I know is July 1st rolls around and now the upgrade is showing as a cost of $5000 in the app. Now I was kinda annoyed that I didn't go with the reduced offer and was like.....whatever. Fast forward to present.....app shows the upgrade as costing $ 7000 now......well what the #@[email protected]! ....
> 
> I kinda equate this situation to (at least for those of us who trade/invest in the stock market) when you are looking at a stock to buy and it goes up a little and you think....I'll wait until it comes back down some to buy in....but it keeps going up and up and up....and you realize at some painful point.....you missed the damn boat....... Hmm... that is funny..... TSLA stock does this a lot too!!!


I upgraded from EAP to FSD for $2000. Still not sure it is worth it.


----------



## Jason F (Jul 6, 2018)

I don't think the economics for a robotaxi will ever work out the way people think, even assuming the best case scenario for the technology. There is not currently a shortage of taxis or ubers now. Flooding the market with new robotaxis will drive prices down a lot. If it is initially profitable, the supply of robotaxis will increase until it no longer. There are only so many people who would want to use a robotaxi, or any taxi.


----------



## MarkB (Mar 19, 2017)

SoFlaModel3 said:


> The car still can't be in 2 places at the same time. It would take a perfect setup to drop off 2 kids at different schools, 2 adults at work, and then be in a position to pick everyone up timely.


Or just a little flexibility in the schedules.


----------



## MarkB (Mar 19, 2017)

Jason F said:


> I don't think the economics for a robotaxi will ever work out the way people think, even assuming the best case scenario for the technology. There is not currently a shortage of taxis or ubers now. Flooding the market with new robotaxis will drive prices down a lot. If it is initially profitable, the supply of robotaxis will increase until it no longer. There are only so many people who would want to use a robotaxi, or any taxi.


The roads are so full now, most places are incentivizing higher vehicle occupancy (HOV lanes, etc). Robotaxis will be operating EMPTY much of the time, which would add to congestion. Taxis and Ubers waiting for fares are essentially "empty" as well.


----------



## SoFlaModel3 (Apr 15, 2017)

MarkB said:


> Or just a little flexibility in the schedules.


Agreed. Flexibility = perfect setup.


----------



## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

I have been wondering if with the FSD monthly subscription model, that they might stop selling FSD altogether. Along with this change, they could make FSD that was already purchased transferable to future cars. Forever and ever. That would then easily make Elon’s statement true that purchasing it outright is the better deal. Better deal, just maybe not a choice if they switch to the different FSD marketing model rather than just adding the subscription option.

Tesla has a way of surprising us with changes to what and how they offer things. Just an interesting idea that would create a finite set of lifetime FSD licenses, that would indeed increase in value. Maybe even be worth as much as the car itself, eventually. Kind of like being given a share of stock that becomes a sought after commodity. Also a nice nod and thank you to early adopters, who purchased before the product was ever real.

I’m not particularly visionary, so I expect plenty of responses about why this idea is ridiculous. 😬

As a side, I continue to think about how I have FSD on 2 cars but personally, not all that excited about full autonomy. I like it as a very advanced driving aid. But as I regularly walk around my mother’s retirement community and see people becoming more and more limited by decreasing driving skills, I think what a godsend FSD could be to the aged....


----------



## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

Bigriver said:


> I have been wondering if with the FSD monthly subscription model, that they might stop selling FSD altogether. Along with this change, they could make FSD that was already purchased transferable to future cars. Forever and ever. That would then easily make Elon's statement true that purchasing it outright is the better deal. Better deal, just maybe not a choice if they switch to the different FSD marketing model rather than just adding the subscription option.
> 
> Tesla has a way of surprising us with changes to what and how they offer things. Just an interesting idea that would create a finite set of lifetime FSD licenses, that would indeed increase in value. Maybe even be worth as much as the car itself, eventually. Kind of like being given a share of stock that becomes a sought after commodity. Also a nice nod and thank you to early adopters, who purchased before the product was ever real.
> 
> ...


Definitely not ridiculous but here's a couple of thoughts. Personally I don't think the current FSD is worth $10k to most people and most people don't buy it. About 33% do. I imagine a large percentage of the 33% that do buy it think that they will get level 4/5 in the near future and they will pay more if they wait to buy it later which is what Tesla says. To me if they switched to subscription right now you lose that justification to charge more than the current value. Right now I'm surprised its 33% and they can always lower the price and get more people onboard if things go south so they are doing pretty good. Conversely a subscription right now would capture some who want it temporarily, maybe some that can't afford paying up front, and people on leases. That may justify both like they are doing.

I think another argument for going all subscription is that the value of level 4/5 is not well understood. I have asked non Tesla people how much they would pay for it. I get somewhere between 0 and $10k. Meanwhile Elon says $100k. But people have no idea. They haven't thought it through and its all theoretical at this point. They can't even imagine a car coming out to pick them up on their dirt road or in the winter. If its a subscription you can increase the cost as people recognize the value. Right now I don't think 33% are going to pay $20k but they may pay an equivalent of $20k some day. If you look at it from that perspective it seems like you're getting a heck of a deal. I think once it actually works might be a good time to stop selling it and switch to subscription only.


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

I am curious to see how Musk will convince a buyer to shell out an additional $11k for FSD on a $25k car.

https://electrek.co/2021/01/08/tesla-25000-electric-car-coming-sooner-than-we-thought/

MOD edit on 1/8/2021 to fix link to article.


----------



## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

M3OC Rules said:


> I definitely have issues with the front radar getting blocked with snow and ice and I agree losing TACC is super annoying especially when there is no basic cruise control fallback. But I don't recall having issues with the front camera fogging although I think I've read about it on this forum. Maybe that would be worth asking the service department about. I have not tried Tesla's recommendation of Rust-Oleum Never Wet Top Coat over the radar area of the bumper but I might try that this winter.


I have full ceramic coating on my car and it makes no difference for ice buildup on the front where the radar is. If enough ice clings there there not much you can do about it.
We've talked about FSD a lot on the podcast and we're all in agreement that if FSD is going to work Tesla needs to address weather properly and not assume everyone lives in California. B pillar and rear cameras need cleaning sprayers and the the radar area in the fascia needs a proper heater.


----------



## NJturtlePower (Dec 19, 2017)

I too agree FSD is getting (been) too expensive. IMO it doesn't matter what it can do in the future, just a fact that in a car under $100k buyers don't and won't throw in $10k in options seeing how little it adds over the included AP.

The subscription option will be a HUGE money maker, buy it when you need it type, like for a summer road trip and/or for those who lease their Tesla's.

Just a heads up, for those who haven't noticed already under your Tesla account and the "Upgrades" tab, there is now a "Subscribe" toggle in the upper right....showed up a few weeks ago from my random browsing.

I'm betting the FSD subscription option will come when Tesla (or TSLA) needs a little boost, either like the usual end of quarter push or after a disappointing earnings report.... time will tell.


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

NJturtlePower said:


> I too agree FSD is getting (been) too expensive. IMO it doesn't matter what it can do in the future, just a fact that in a car under $100k buyers don't and won't throw in $10k in options seeing how little it adds over the included AP.
> 
> The subscription option will be a HUGE money maker, buy it when you need it type, like for a summer road trip and/or for those who lease their Tesla's.
> 
> ...


I'm not interested in using my car as a taxi and I don't expect to see this anytime soon. Personally, I don't see a reason to pay $10,000 up front based on a typical car ownership of around 8 years unless Tesla comes up with a way to transfer it to another car. A better way in my opinion is to charge a license fee. A license fee eliminate issues related to scrapping a car with FSD in an accident or trading for a new Tesla. I also think that a fair price would be around $100/month or $1000/year. Based on a typical car's lifespan of 12 years, that's a $12,000 revenue potential in today's dollars. This would probably encourage more people to test and adopt FSD as opposed to presenting them with an additional $10,000 option on a $40,000 car or the $25,000 one that Musk has alluded to.


----------



## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

I'm not sure I foresee Tesla letting owners opt in or out on a month-to-month basis, I don't think there's much in it for them in that scenario. I would expect something like an annual opt in or out.


----------



## Madmolecule (Oct 8, 2018)

I believe once I get the full self driving or even the auto-pilot more refined they will offer to a pay-per-use model also. Since it is just software it could be easily purchased for a time period. This would be I think very beneficial for the occasional user for vacations or businesses where the employee could expense the added safety feature for a business trip. It would be great if you could even purchase other packages like a new driver package, that would provide coaching and added take over assistance for the kids that were learning to drive.
Track mode would be also a great pay per use thing. I would love for my car to take me on donut or drifting lessons.


----------



## Madmolecule (Oct 8, 2018)

I think people are basically saying that it is too expensive for how much they will be using it and th benefit it provides. Once it becomes clear what that benefit it actually is, I think people will be willing to pay per use. It is very expensive for advanced cruise control so I can see people not wanting to spend it.

It could also be a great replacement for the supercharger in the referral program. I don’t know how many people are able to use the charging perk as I feel most people charge at home. But six months of free FSD would be a great perk and would promote more Tesla evangelists


----------



## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

DocScott said:


> I think one helpful step would be to completely separate the HW3 upgrade from FSD.
> 
> It's a little weird that FSD costs the same for someone who _already_ has HW3 as for someone who needs the new chip, but didn't take advantage of the original offers.
> 
> ...


And, how about if those who subscribe to FSD on a monthly basis, are allowed to accrue all their monthly payments toward the purchase of FSD? It'd be somewhat like an unending demo, and I know the closer I got to paying-off the cost, the more likely I'd be to pay-off the full balance in a single payment.

So, Elon would get my money, just not as quickly.

One think I do know: I'll never be purchasing FSD for $10,000, plus $850 sales tax, and Elon will not make any money from me for FSD!

Shoot, that sound like easy-money to me!


----------



## tivoboy (Mar 24, 2017)

Skagit Doug said:


> And, how about if those who subscribe to FSD on a monthly basis, are allowed to accrue all their monthly payments toward the purchase of FSD? It'd be somewhat like an unending demo, and I know the closer I got to paying-off the cost, the more likely I'd be to pay-off the full balance in a single payment.
> 
> So, Elon would get my money, just not as quickly.
> 
> ...


I doubt tesla would offer this type of layaway program for FSD. Might as well off 0% financing off the full FSD if they wanted to. They MIGHT give some small discount to a user who had paid for X months of FSD subscription with maybe some amount of credit towards, but not a full credit.


----------



## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

I've already chimed in on this before. Here's my solution to the pricing scheme:

https://teslaownersonline.com/threads/full-self-driving-and-autopilot-names.17509/post-301769
TLDR:

Basically 3-tiers:


Basic AP included with all cars
EAP that adds all the extra non-FSD stuff
FSD
That way it's more fair, affordable and less confusing


----------



## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

tivoboy said:


> I doubt tesla would offer this type of layaway program for FSD. Might as well off 0% financing off the full FSD if they wanted to. They MIGHT give some small discount to a user who had paid for X months of FSD subscription with maybe some amount of credit towards, but not a full credit.


Look, tivoboy, I'm okay if Elon doesn't want any more of my money. All I was offering was an opportunity for him to to have some of it. So what if he's offering me money "interest-free," he not getting any of it from me the way things are now. It wouldn't cost any 'money' for him to include the FSD software on a time-payment plan, since he's already supplying periodic updates. My prposal would just make the updates more extensive, right? . (Note: If you're old enough to remember lay-away plans, and you didn't get the merchandise until the balance was paid. That is not what I am suggesting.)

Why don't we call it "earnest money," where, if I walk away from the deal, I lose the money I've offered?

Maybe one of his fanboys wants to pass it on to Elon? Basically, I'm offering to pay for a feature I don't care if I have or not, just at a slower pace than one $10,000 crack.

Also, please note: I have paid cash for each of the Model 3 cars I've owned, so this is not about being able to afford the price.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

Skagit Doug said:


> Look, tivoboy, I'm okay if Elon doesn't want any more of my money. All I was offering was an opportunity for him to to have some of it. So what if he's offering me money "interest-free," he not getting any of it from me the way things are now. It wouldn't cost any 'money' for him to include the FSD software on a time-payment plan, since he's already supplying periodic updates. My prposal would just make the updates more extensive, right? . (Note: If you're old enough to remember lay-away plans, and you didn't get the merchandise until the balance was paid. That is not what I am suggesting.)
> 
> Why don't we call it "earnest money," where, if I walk away from the deal, I lose the money I've offered?
> 
> ...


Problem with that is there would literally be ZERO people that would buy FSD up front. Why put a single dollar up front when you can just pay monthly and eventually get to the same end result?

You're arguing that you'll NEVER put up $10k for FSD, but you'd be OK with putting up $10k for FSD over the course of a few years.

What will be the likely compromise is that you can subscribe to FSD for a month or two (paying a few hundred dollars to do so) and then deciding if it's worth the $10k or not. If it's not then you unsubscribe and go on with your life. If it IS then you need to decide if you want to put up $10k up front or get a loan and pay interest so that you don't have to put it all up front. I don't see how the latter option needs to be resolved by Tesla. This is how it works for pretty much EVERYTHING in life.


----------



## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

shareef777 said:


> Problem with that is there would literally be ZERO people that would buy FSD up front. Why put a single dollar up front when you can just pay monthly and eventually get to the same end result?
> 
> You're arguing that you'll NEVER put up $10k for FSD, but you'd be OK with putting up $10k for FSD over the course of a few years.
> 
> What will be the likely compromise is that you can subscribe to FSD for a month or two (paying a few hundred dollars to do so) and then deciding if it's worth the $10k or not. If it's not then you unsubscribe and go on with your life. If it IS then you need to decide if you want to put up $10k up front or get a loan and pay interest so that you don't have to put it all up front. I don't see how the latter option needs to be resolved by Tesla. This is how it works for pretty much EVERYTHING in life.


Understand, shareef777, I'm just trying to help Elon!


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

The difference between the lease amounts of a model 3 with and without FSD is $133 per month for 36 guaranteed payments (both configurations have the same down payment of $4500). This is likely the starting point for estimating how much the monthly charge will be.


----------



## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

shoot, francoisp, I'll take that, thanks!


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

The reason why Tesla is hesitant to switch to a monthly payment plan is because right now, every time someone pays for FSD, it's presumably reported as income. A monthly payment plan has to be recorded differently in terms of accounting. However, stockholders like companies that offer subscription plans to things, so now would be the time for them to change it if they have any desire to do so. 

Unfortunately, changing accounting methods for it means they might have to end the one-time prepayment in order to do it. Which would mean Tesla would have to firmly decide whether they want it to be a feature only available to people who can afford to pay for it in cash, or open it to possibly a wider audience by switching to subscription.

And I do mean cash. It's really difficult for the average person to get an unsecured loan for $10,000 from a third party, and Tesla isn't going to lend it because they would have to record each one of those loans almost like the company taking on unsecured debt, which doesn't look good.


----------



## tivoboy (Mar 24, 2017)

JasonF said:


> The reason why Tesla is hesitant to switch to a monthly payment plan is because right now, every time someone pays for FSD, it's presumably reported as income. A monthly payment plan has to be recorded differently in terms of accounting. However, stockholders like companies that offer subscription plans to things, so now would be the time for them to change it if they have any desire to do so.
> 
> Unfortunately, changing accounting methods for it means they might have to end the one-time prepayment in order to do it. Which would mean Tesla would have to firmly decide whether they want it to be a feature only available to people who can afford to pay for it in cash, or open it to possibly a wider audience by switching to subscription.
> 
> And I do mean cash. It's really difficult for the average person to get an unsecured loan for $10,000 from a third party, and Tesla isn't going to lend it because they would have to record each one of those loans almost like the company taking on unsecured debt, which doesn't look good.


technically they cannot recognize all of it as revenue till it meets the threshold. They have been able to recognize SOME of the money they collect (as cash flow) due to increasing AP/EAP/~FSD functionality, but there is still a lot of actual "revenue" on the books as deferred revenue yet to be recognized. It certainly IS an incentive for them to unlock that from a reporting standpoint, but they have to get much farther down the road with FSD (see what I did there. ;-) before being able to do that.


----------



## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

Skagit Doug said:


> shoot, francoisp, I'll take that, thanks!


Don't see them letting you own it at $133/mo, just a 3 year lease. That in effect pays 1/2 the purchase price interest-free over three years.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

francoisp said:


> The difference between the lease amounts of a model 3 with and without FSD is $133 per month for 36 guaranteed payments (both configurations have the same down payment of $4500). This is likely the starting point for estimating how much the monthly charge will be.


What's the payoff at the end of the lease for a 3 with FSD and one without?


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

shareef777 said:


> What's the payoff at the end of the lease for a 3 with FSD and one without?


It's not provided on the website. Someone said on this forum that Tesla does not allow buyback. So let's assume that both owners will return their car at the end of the lease. One driver will have paid $4788 more than the other for having had the privilege of using FSD. If the same driver that got FSD leases another Tesla with FSD, in 6 years he will have paid close to today's price tag of $10k. For the buyer. that's much better than buying FSD twice at $10k each time.

I'm curious to see what Tesla will do in term of pricing. In an earlier post I suggested $150/month and that might be close depending on the length of the agreement.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

francoisp said:


> It's not provided on the website. Someone said on this forum that Tesla does not allow buyback. So let's assume that both owners will return their car at the end of the lease. One driver will have paid $4788 more than the other for having had the privilege of using FSD. If the same driver that got FSD leases another Tesla with FSD, in 6 years he will have paid close to today's price tag of $10k. For the buyer. that's much better than buying FSD twice at $10k each time.
> 
> I'm curious to see what Tesla will do in term of pricing. In an earlier post I suggested $150/month and that might be close depending on the length of the agreement.


Odds are that the balance of the FSD cost will be charged at the buyout at the end of the lease. If you opt NOT to buy it and buy a new car you'd essentially be paying $10k for FSD every 6 years. Win-win for Tesla and doesn't impact existing buyers that put up the full $10k.

The key differentiator is that you technically aren't subscribing with a lease considering you're stuck with that $133/mo cost for the entirety of the lease. A subscription service has to account for people going in for a month or two and then back out for most of the year. As a buyer of FSD, anything under $200 would have me second guess my purchase of FSD up front and I'd imagine Tesla would completely remove the outright purchase of FSD if it's priced under $200.


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

shareef777 said:


> Odds are that the balance of the FSD cost will be charged at the buyout at the end of the lease. If you opt NOT to buy it and buy a new car you'd essentially be paying $10k for FSD every 6 years. Win-win for Tesla and doesn't impact existing buyers that put up the full $10k.
> 
> The key differentiator is that you technically aren't subscribing with a lease considering you're stuck with that $133/mo cost for the entirety of the lease. A subscription service has to account for people going in for a month or two and then back out for most of the year. As a buyer of FSD, anything under $200 would have me second guess my purchase of FSD up front and I'd imagine Tesla would completely remove the outright purchase of FSD if it's priced under $200.


Most subscription services I encounter online offer a month-to-month and a yearly subscription. It will be interesting to see what Tesla chooses. Based on past experience I predict its subscription model will change every month for a while.😜


----------



## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

JasonF said:


> The reason why Tesla is hesitant to switch to a monthly payment plan is because right now, every time someone pays for FSD, it's presumably reported as income. A monthly payment plan has to be recorded differently in terms of accounting. However, stockholders like companies that offer subscription plans to things, so now would be the time for them to change it if they have any desire to do so.
> 
> Unfortunately, changing accounting methods for it means they might have to end the one-time prepayment in order to do it. Which would mean Tesla would have to firmly decide whether they want it to be a feature only available to people who can afford to pay for it in cash, or open it to possibly a wider audience by switching to subscription.
> 
> And I do mean cash. It's really difficult for the average person to get an unsecured loan for $10,000 from a third party, and Tesla isn't going to lend it because they would have to record each one of those loans almost like the company taking on unsecured debt, which doesn't look good.


Finally, accounting logic that's straight-forward enough for this simple-minded engineer to comprehend, thanks!!!


----------



## Ed Woodrick (May 26, 2018)

urquattro83 said:


> Finally, accounting logic that's straight-forward enough for this simple-minded engineer to comprehend, thanks!!!


And I think that it would be quite reasonable to charge at a rate until you hit $15,000. What? you say. It's only $10,000. That's if you pay up front.


----------



## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

Ed Woodrick said:


> And I think that it would be quite reasonable to charge at a rate until you hit $15,000. What? you say. It's only $10,000. That's if you pay up front.


Reminds me of 'rent to own' financing. I'm reminded of the annual maintenance cost of mainframe operating systems to get patches and upgrades.

Bob Wilson


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

At this stage, without a clear understanding of when FSD in its final form will be available, one would have to have money to throw away to pay for a subscription or worst buy the whole thing at once. I'm one of the suckers caught in the hype because I paid $7k for it in 2018. When I switched to a Y I didn't go for it that time. Learned my lesson. Fool me once ...


----------



## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

Ed Woodrick said:


> And I think that it would be quite reasonable to charge at a rate until you hit $15,000. What? you say. It's only $10,000. That's if you pay up front.


Let's try this simple-minded logic, one step at a time:

1. Initial cost of FSD is sunken,

2. Some will opt for the $10,000 sum to add FSD to their existing cars,

3, Far more will opt not to add FSD at the current price,

4. Remembering all the sunken-costs, there'd be a windfall of income if Elon again decided to offer FSD for $3,000 for one or two weeks.

I know retirement has taken the edge off what used to be a sharp mind, but please tell me the errors in my logic regarding income potential for Elon.

If there are 333 on this forum that would jump at that opportunity, that'd be damned near a million dollars, which Elon will otherwise not see.

Doug


----------



## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

urquattro83 said:


> Let's try this simple-minded logic, one step at a time:
> 
> 1. Initial cost of FSD is sunken,
> 
> ...


33 X$3,000=$99,000


----------



## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

Ed Woodrick said:


> And I think that it would be quite reasonable to charge at a rate until you hit $15,000. What? you say. It's only $10,000. That's if you pay up front.


If people don't think FSD is worth $10,000, do you think they'd opt for it at $15,000?
Right now, it seems like people either don't care how much FSD costs, or, they will never buy FSD, regardless of the cost.
This offers encouragement to those stick in the middle of the two camps.


----------



## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

FRC said:


> 33 X$3,000=$99,000


Thanks, FRC, I changed the quantity to 333.


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

urquattro83 said:


> If people don't think FSD is worth $10,000, do you think they'd opt for it at $15,000?
> Right now, it seems like people either don't care how much FSD costs, or, they will never buy FSD, regardless of the cost.
> This offers encouragement to those stick in the middle of the two camps.


Hmmmm.

Raising the price of a product seems like an indication that it's selling.

Lowering the price seems like an indication that something isn't selling - except of course for Tesla Vehicle sales as they are passing on the cost savings of ( cheaper batteries / cheaper manufacturing / etc ) to us.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

urquattro83 said:


> Let's try this simple-minded logic, one step at a time:
> 
> 1. Initial cost of FSD is sunken,
> 
> ...


There'd be hell if he lowered the price to $3k. You'd be telling everyone that paid $10k that they've been duped.


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

I would be interested in a real study of the price of UBER miles driven to the price if FSD miles driven. 

Example: How much would it have cost me to Uber to Cleveland from Chicago and back as opposed to having FSD take me with my hand resting on the wheel. 

Lets see...in the past 6 months FSD has taken me from Chicago to Freehold NJ and back...Chicago to Jackson Mississippi and back. Chicago to Cleveland Ohio and back.

Yes...I do now have 93K miles on my M3 - about 88k FSD. 

How much would 88K miles of UBER cost?


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

I see a lot of posts on this page focusing on how to convince people that paying $10,000 up front is a better deal than paying monthly, and therefore there is no reason to have a monthly payment plan for it. But that requires the assumption that anyone buying a Tesla will absolutely have $10,000 to spare, and the only issue is how to convince them to let go of it all at once instead of in pieces. Maybe that was once an absolute truth in the Model S/X only days, but with Tesla going more mainstream, it's a lot less true. 

Unfortunately I think Tesla is making the same assumption - that all of its customers all have $10,000 lying around somewhere, and all they have to do convince them to let go of it. That's not disturbing to me so much because I'm not one of them; It disturbs me to think that Tesla is starting to lean a bit on marketing people to guide them into making extra money. You know, the same marketing people who convince other manufacturers to ship only fully loaded vehicles to dealers to trick customers into thinking that's all there is, and they'll have to dig deeper and come up with more money than they planned for. That all customers have the money somewhere, and if you squeeze them enough they'll come up with it.

I don't like that because it's a formula that rapidly leads to lack of innovation. First, squeeze customers for more money for add-on features. Then, when there are no more of those, squeeze them for higher-priced product. And finally, cut the R&D and production budget, keep recycling the old stuff, and squeeze the customers until they pay more for it. Kind of like General Motors and Dodge. The stockholders cheer, and the customers suffer.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

JasonF said:


> I see a lot of posts on this page focusing on how to convince people that paying $10,000 up front is a better deal than paying monthly, and therefore there is no reason to have a monthly payment plan for it. But that requires the assumption that anyone buying a Tesla will absolutely have $10,000 to spare, and the only issue is how to convince them to let go of it all at once instead of in pieces. Maybe that was once an absolute truth in the Model S/X only days, but with Tesla going more mainstream, it's a lot less true.
> 
> Unfortunately I think Tesla is making the same assumption - that all of its customers all have $10,000 lying around somewhere, and all they have to do convince them to let go of it. That's not disturbing to me so much because I'm not one of them; It disturbs me to think that Tesla is starting to lean a bit on marketing people to guide them into making extra money. You know, the same marketing people who convince other manufacturers to ship only fully loaded vehicles to dealers to trick customers into thinking that's all there is, and they'll have to dig deeper and come up with more money than they planned for. That all customers have the money somewhere, and if you squeeze them enough they'll come up with it.
> 
> I don't like that because it's a formula that rapidly leads to lack of innovation. First, squeeze customers for more money for add-on features. Then, when there are no more of those, squeeze them for higher-priced product. And finally, cut the R&D and production budget, keep recycling the old stuff, and squeeze the customers until they pay more for it. Kind of like General Motors and Dodge. The stockholders cheer, and the customers suffer.


Yep, along those lines Tesla has taken to the playbook of the legacy automakers and bundled features available today (summon, self park, NoA, etc) into FSD at a $10k price! You're now forced between not getting features that are helpful, and more importantly available today, or paying a huge markup to also get a feature you can't use (or may not want). And we thought leather but being forced into a sunroof package was bad 🤦‍♂️


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

JasonF said:


> I see a lot of posts on this page focusing on how to convince people that paying $10,000 up front is a better deal than paying monthly, and therefore there is no reason to have a monthly payment plan for it. But that requires the assumption that anyone buying a Tesla will absolutely have $10,000 to spare, and the only issue is how to convince them to let go of it all at once instead of in pieces. Maybe that was once an absolute truth in the Model S/X only days, but with Tesla going more mainstream, it's a lot less true.
> 
> Unfortunately I think Tesla is making the same assumption - that all of its customers all have $10,000 lying around somewhere, and all they have to do convince them to let go of it. That's not disturbing to me so much because I'm not one of them; It disturbs me to think that Tesla is starting to lean a bit on marketing people to guide them into making extra money. You know, the same marketing people who convince other manufacturers to ship only fully loaded vehicles to dealers to trick customers into thinking that's all there is, and they'll have to dig deeper and come up with more money than they planned for. That all customers have the money somewhere, and if you squeeze them enough they'll come up with it.
> 
> I don't like that because it's a formula that rapidly leads to lack of innovation. First, squeeze customers for more money for add-on features. Then, when there are no more of those, squeeze them for higher-priced product. And finally, cut the R&D and production budget, keep recycling the old stuff, and squeeze the customers until they pay more for it. Kind of like General Motors and Dodge. The stockholders cheer, and the customers suffer.


I think most people are financing their cars.

$10k on a $50k or #60k vehicle isn't really a big change in monthly payment on a Model 3.

Model S and X @ $70k+ even less of a change on a monthly payment.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

Garlan Garner said:


> I think most people are financing their cars.
> 
> $10k on a $50k or #60k vehicle isn't really a big change in monthly payment on a Model 3.
> 
> Model S and X @ $70k+ even less of a change on a monthly payment.


I see it differently. A 20% jump is pretty significant. Even in monthly terms. Asking anyone to add $150/mo to a car payment for a feature they can't comprehensively use isn't likely going to get a lot of sign offs.


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

shareef777 said:


> I see it differently. A 20% jump is pretty significant. Even in monthly terms. Asking anyone to add $150/mo to a car payment for a feature they can't comprehensively use isn't likely going to get a lot of sign offs.


I believe its getting a ton of signoffs....or else they wouldn't be raising the price of it.

You don't raise the price on something that isn't selling.

______________________________________

Lastly...a 20% increase in the price of a car isn't automatically a 20% increase in payment. Depends on your interest rate and loan term.


----------



## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

Garlan Garner said:


> You don't raise the price on something that isn't selling.


You do at the tail end of an investment bubble. Those who bought late don't want to sell for a loss, so they continue to ask for higher prices, but volume drops as new investors become skeptical of buying in.

Elon has encouraged us to think of FSD as a literal investment which will keep increasing in value. While it's not strictly analogous to, say, stock or home prices, because the price is not set by the market, it's still subject to some of the same patterns.


----------



## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> Lastly...a 20% increase in the price of a car isn't automatically a 20% increase in payment. Depends on your interest rate and loan term.


Not sure what math you are doing but it scales perfectly. Increase the principal by x% and for any interest/term, the monthly payment goes up by x%. Example attached.


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> I think most people are financing their cars.
> 
> $10k on a $50k or #60k vehicle isn't really a big change in monthly payment on a Model 3.


Now, most people _are_ financing their cars right now. But that's not my entire point. Someone on these forums once implied - also on the topic of FSD - that if $10,000 is going to break you, you shouldn't be buying a Tesla. And I can fully understand that when a person buys what they believe to be a high end luxury car to complement their luxury lifestyle, they don't want just anyone to be able to get one. They want some rarity, some exclusivity, for the cost of entry to be only people who can easily throw around an extra $10k. I don't really care if a few people want to believe that way.

What concerns me is if the _company_ believes that as well. Elon Musk has been giving them a conflicting mission from time to time - make EV's mainstream and for everyone, but at the same time, they mostly want customers who can toss in an extra $5k ot $10k once in a while, in cash, for extra features. What he (and a lot of the Tesla board) doesn't seem to realize is, if they look like that's the direction they want to head, the mainstream EV buyers they want to attract are going to go elsewhere. Not because of the cars, because they're brilliant. But they're going to feel like they're joining a club where they can't afford to pay the dues.

I worry about that myself, when I see Tesla jump from one side of the fence to the other like that. I have one now, but what about 6, 8, 10 years from now if I decide to trade in for a newer EV? Are Teslas going to reposition as high-end-luxury again, and become unaffordable for me? Will I have to buy from a different manufacturer because the cost of entry or "dues" are too expensive with Tesla now? Or will it become a better value at the same or lower price level?


----------



## tivoboy (Mar 24, 2017)

I can say one thing. I’m looking at a possibly buying another tesla in the next 6-12 months, and I will almost certainly NOT pay for FSD again upfront. While I thought it would be fun to be on the cutting edge, get the roll out early, etc., I didn’t think that now three years later it doesn’t do much more than it did when I started in 2018.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

JasonF said:


> Now, most people _are_ financing their cars right now. But that's not my entire point. Someone on these forums once implied - also on the topic of FSD - that if $10,000 is going to break you, you shouldn't be buying a Tesla. And I can fully understand that when a person buys what they believe to be a high end luxury car to complement their luxury lifestyle, they don't want just anyone to be able to get one. They want some rarity, some exclusivity, for the cost of entry to be only people who can easily throw around an extra $10k. I don't really care if a few people want to believe that way.
> 
> What concerns me is if the _company_ believes that as well. Elon Musk has been giving them a conflicting mission from time to time - make EV's mainstream and for everyone, but at the same time, they mostly want customers who can toss in an extra $5k ot $10k once in a while, in cash, for extra features. What he (and a lot of the Tesla board) doesn't seem to realize is, if they look like that's the direction they want to head, the mainstream EV buyers they want to attract are going to go elsewhere. Not because of the cars, because they're brilliant. But they're going to feel like they're joining a club where they can't afford to pay the dues.
> 
> I worry about that myself, when I see Tesla jump from one side of the fence to the other like that. I have one now, but what about 6, 8, 10 years from now if I decide to trade in for a newer EV? Are Teslas going to reposition as high-end-luxury again, and become unaffordable for me? Will I have to buy from a different manufacturer because the cost of entry or "dues" are too expensive with Tesla now? Or will it become a better value at the same or lower price level?


Thing is every car manufacturer does this. I agree, that I'd love for Tesla to not be like them but they are and have always been. My wife's Pilot cost $40k. There a "black edition" that costs another $15k for some blacked out trim/wheels and other frivolous features. There's also a $10k cheaper version that doesn't include the frivolous features that I wanted 😂.

Tesla has "end of quarter" sales pushes for a long while. A year ago my cousin bought a fully decked out MX for $110k while anyone none the wiser would have paid around $140k (at that time) for the same car on Tesla's website.

At the end of the day, Tesla IS a business first and foremost and they bow to the will of supply/demand. If ENOUGH people pay for a frivolous feature they'll keep upping the price till either they don't sell many (which is I'm guessing where they're at now) or they make the feature more worthy (by releasing FSD) and then continuing the price increases.


----------



## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

tivoboy said:


> I can say one thing. I'm looking at a possibly buying another tesla in the next 6-12 months, and I will almost certainly NOT pay for FSD again upfront. While I thought it would be fun to be on the cutting edge, get the roll out early, etc., I didn't think that now three years later it doesn't do much more than it did when I started in 2018.


I hope to drive my current M3 for another 8-10 years(I have FSD). If I purchase another Tesla 10 years from now, It will not include FSD unless FSD does what Elon promised 2+ years ago. Some have promised significant FSD improvements no later than the end of this month. 14 1/2 hours left!


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

shareef777 said:


> At the end of the day, Tesla IS a business first and foremost and they bow to the will of supply/demand. If ENOUGH people pay for a frivolous feature they'll keep upping the price till either they don't sell many (which is I'm guessing where they're at now) or they make the feature more worthy (by releasing FSD) and then continuing the price increases.


It's not the extra fees for frivolous features that bother me. If you look forward a bit, soon there will be a supposed $25,000 Tesla. That's an attractive prospect, the ability to own a nice EV for the price of a Toyota Corolla. But let's say Tesla removes Autopilot from it, giving it dumb cruise control to start, and charges $5000 for it as an add-on. Other $25k ICE vehicles come with adaptive cruise, usually at an option level lower than an extra $5k. People might see it as Tesla nickle and diming to try and squeeze $30k out of an advertised $25k. So far that's not much different than other manufacturers.

But then Tesla tells those $25k Tesla owners that the $5000 Autopilot will go up to $7000 in a month. Those drivers get angry, and future buyers look at it as if you buy a Tesla, they will keep extorting huge amounts of money, like it's a membership fee, from buyers who can't afford it. They'll likely go for another manufacturer, just because they know the sale is final, and the monthly payment stays the same.


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

JasonF said:


> Now, most people _are_ financing their cars right now. But that's not my entire point. Someone on these forums once implied - also on the topic of FSD - that if $10,000 is going to break you, you shouldn't be buying a Tesla. And I can fully understand that when a person buys what they believe to be a high end luxury car to complement their luxury lifestyle, they don't want just anyone to be able to get one. They want some rarity, some exclusivity, for the cost of entry to be only people who can easily throw around an extra $10k. I don't really care if a few people want to believe that way.
> 
> What concerns me is if the _company_ believes that as well. Elon Musk has been giving them a conflicting mission from time to time - make EV's mainstream and for everyone, but at the same time, they mostly want customers who can toss in an extra $5k ot $10k once in a while, in cash, for extra features. What he (and a lot of the Tesla board) doesn't seem to realize is, if they look like that's the direction they want to head, the mainstream EV buyers they want to attract are going to go elsewhere. Not because of the cars, because they're brilliant. But they're going to feel like they're joining a club where they can't afford to pay the dues.
> 
> I worry about that myself, when I see Tesla jump from one side of the fence to the other like that. I have one now, but what about 6, 8, 10 years from now if I decide to trade in for a newer EV? Are Teslas going to reposition as high-end-luxury again, and become unaffordable for me? Will I have to buy from a different manufacturer because the cost of entry or "dues" are too expensive with Tesla now? Or will it become a better value at the same or lower price level?


What does Tesla care if people pay for their car in cash or get a loan? They get the cash immediately either way.

I think Tesla cares about selling cars in order to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. What other car manufacturer is looking at things like reducing the carbon footprint of the earth? Every one of their products leads to their goal. 
Carbon Impact | Tesla
They want rich people to be involved - all the way down to the person who can only afford a $25k car ( soon ).

As far as the aesthetics of the cars are concerned....it appears that what they want is SEXY CARS. lol

Model S CyberTruck C
Model 3 ATV A
Model X Roadster R
Model Y Semi S

Unlike any other manufacturer - FSD for everyone so far. ( maybe not the ATV.....although.....)


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

shareef777 said:


> Thing is every car manufacturer does this. I agree, that I'd love for Tesla to not be like them but they are and have always been. My wife's Pilot cost $40k. There a "black edition" that costs another $15k for some blacked out trim/wheels and other frivolous features. There's also a $10k cheaper version that doesn't include the frivolous features that I wanted 😂.
> 
> Tesla has "end of quarter" sales pushes for a long while. A year ago my cousin bought a fully decked out MX for $110k while anyone none the wiser would have paid around $140k (at that time) for the same car on Tesla's website.
> 
> At the end of the day, Tesla IS a business first and foremost and they bow to the will of supply/demand. If ENOUGH people pay for a frivolous feature they'll keep upping the price till either they don't sell many (which is I'm guessing where they're at now) or they make the feature more worthy (by releasing FSD) and then continuing the price increases.


And......If you wanted to upgrade your basic Pilot....you couldn't. Had to make the decision at the time of vehicle purchase. As we all know...FSD isn't like that.

Fair enough for everyone if you don't want it at the time of purchase - its no more expensive afterwards ( right now ). This includes all vehicles with appropriate hardware. ( those considered luxury and non luxury ).

I don't know anything about Pilots....but....quite confident Honda didn't make provisions for these kinds of post purchase upgrades.


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> What does Tesla care if people pay for their car in cash or get a loan? They get the cash immediately either way.


It tells them what kind of financial profile of buyers they're attracting. That's important to future products and how to appeal to buyers with financial profiles that aren't interested, _if_ they plan on becoming a mainstream manufacturer. High-end luxury manufacturers don't have to worry about that because they're always targeting the same limited group.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

Garlan Garner said:


> And......If you wanted to upgrade your basic Pilot....you couldn't. Had to make the decision at the time of vehicle purchase. As we all know...FSD isn't like that.


FSD is EXACTLY like that (I'd even argue WORSE)!!! The premise of never ending price increases is telling owners to BUY NOW! Difference is when I paid for extra features on the Pilot I GOT those features when I drove off the lot. I paid for leather, moonroof, etc and got exactly those. I DIDN'T pay for the features I didn't want, nor was I asked to pay for a set of features, but told I'd get parts of the set "on some unknown future date".

THIS is what Tesla is doing today. Pay for summon, NoA, self-park, AND FSD (bulk of the price is FSD), but you'll get FSD at some future date.


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> I believe its getting a ton of signoffs....or else they wouldn't be raising the price of it.
> 
> You don't raise the price on something that isn't selling.
> 
> ...


Musk has raised prices, then lowered them, then raised them, then ... See a pattern here?


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

JasonF said:


> Will I have to buy from a different manufacturer because the cost of entry or "dues" are too expensive with Tesla now? Or will it become a better value at the same or lower price level?


I wouldn't worry about getting a car as good as what Tesla offers today in 5 years from now. With EVs we're at the point where smart phones were 10 years ago: there is a clear leader today but with the passing years I see a quick catching up, with similar performance from similar hardware. From a software perspective I believe most EV car companies will be able to offer Level-2 self-driving capability that's comparable to Tesla's Autopilot (not FSD).


----------



## NJturtlePower (Dec 19, 2017)

Garlan Garner said:


> I think most people are financing their cars.
> 
> $10k on a $50k or #60k vehicle isn't really a big change in monthly payment on a Model 3.
> 
> Model S and X @ $70k+ even less of a change on a monthly payment.


Let's not forget Tesla leases.... Who except the hardcore Tesla fans or where money is no object are throwing down $10k on a 2 or 3 year lease?

Humm if only there was a reasonable FSD subscription plan to snag all these possible lease add-ons. Soon enough!


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

francoisp said:


> I wouldn't worry about getting a car as good as what Tesla offers today in 5 years from now. With EVs we're at the point where smart phones were 10 years ago: there is a clear leader today but with the passing years I see a quick catching up, with similar performance from similar hardware. From a software perspective I believe most EV car companies will be able to offer Level-2 self-driving capability that's comparable to Tesla's Autopilot (not FSD).


That's kind of what I mean. In 5 or 10 years, I might not _need_ to get a Tesla because other cars might be comparable. But if I _want_ to get one, will I be able to? Or will it move out of my reach price-wise, and _force_ me to switch to another comparable EV?

I say _strictly_ price-wise, because it's entirely possible that the reason I won't be able to buy a Tesla in 10 years could be because the company starts emphasizing full self drive and taxi service over selling cars to consumers. Then it might have to be purchased as a package - car plus FSD plus taxi service - and be out of reach of anyone not planning to be a part of that service. Of course then I wouldn't consider it desirable anymore, because it would be kind of like purchasing a UPS truck for personal use, which would be ridiculous.


----------



## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

francoisp said:


> I wouldn't worry about getting a car as good as what Tesla offers today in 5 years from now. With EVs we're at the point where smart phones were 10 years ago: there is a clear leader today but with the passing years I see a quick catching up, with similar performance from similar hardware. From a software perspective I believe most EV car companies will be able to offer Level-2 self-driving capability that's comparable to Tesla's Autopilot.


I agree. Mobileye is probably pretty close or maybe better. Of course getting their technology into manufacturers is slower than Tesla. Also Mobileye is predicting full self driving in around 5 years.


----------



## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

JasonF said:


> Someone on these forums once implied - also on the topic of FSD - that if $10,000 is going to break you, you shouldn't be buying a Tesla.


I've searched, and not been able to find anything like this. But more importantly than if someone once said it, I don't see that as a prominent stance of members in this forum.



JasonF said:


> I can fully understand that when a person buys what they believe to be a high end luxury car to complement their luxury lifestyle, they don't want just anyone to be able to get one. They want some rarity, some exclusivity, for the cost of entry to be only people who can easily throw around an extra $10k.


I might have expected Tesla owners to be a bit snooty, but I have happily found Tesla reality to be full of nerds and non-swanky types. I, for one, bought a Tesla despite it being viewed by some as something exclusive, not because of it.



JasonF said:


> they mostly want customers who can toss in an extra $5k ot $10k once in a while, in cash, for extra features.


You've made a lot of posts about this. And I've disagreed with you before. I think Tesla the company is far from perfect, but you seem to see a lot of shapes in the clouds that I don't see. I think Tesla is a company who IS working at making their amazing cars more affordable and available to more people. Having an optional feature, FSD @$10k, does not mean the company is catering to only the rich.

Is $10k too much for FSD? Reading the angst through this thread says yes, I guess it is for some who have bought it and for some who haven't but are still offended by the price tag. I think the jury is still out, we are not to the end of the book, the fat lady hasn't sung yet. But regardless of where this ends up, I'm in awe of what my car can do now. I have always liked to drive, but I now LOVE to get in the car for a long trip. It is relaxing. It is safe. Some of my love is for the car itself, and some is for autopilot with lane-change. My car drives itself 95% of the time. I never would have dreamed of this 4 short years ago.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

Bigriver said:


> I've searched, and not been able to find anything like this. But more importantly than if someone once said it, I don't see that as a prominent stance of members in this forum.
> 
> I might have expected Tesla owners to be a bit snooty, but I have happily found Tesla reality to be full of nerds and non-swanky types. I, for one, bought a Tesla despite it being viewed by some as something exclusive, not because of it.
> 
> ...


I don't understand why anyone wouldn't
have an issue with (wether they bought in or not) ANY company offering a product for sale, taking money for said product, and then delivering nothing for years.


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

shareef777 said:


> I don't understand why anyone wouldn't
> have an issue with (wether they bought in or not) ANY company offering a product for sale, taking money for said product, and then delivering nothing for years.


It's like a kickstarter campaign.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Bigriver said:


> I've searched, and not been able to find anything like this. But more importantly than if someone once said it, I don't see that as a prominent stance of members in this forum.


I found this old thread, but it's talking about financial ability to purchase a Model 3, not specifically to adding FSD.

https://teslaownersonline.com/threads/affording-to-purchase-the-model-3.4726/


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

Bigriver said:


> You've made a lot of posts about this. And I've disagreed with you before. I think Tesla the company is far from perfect, but you seem to see a lot of shapes in the clouds that I don't see. I think Tesla is a company who IS working at making their amazing cars more affordable and available to more people. Having an optional feature, FSD @$10k, does not mean the company is catering to only the rich.


That last quote was a little out of context. I was talking about the message that Tesla is sending to potential customers out there because of inconsistency in the mission it's projecting. How one minute Elon Musk is interested in a $25,000 mainstream EV, and the next minute he's tweeting about that the cost of upgrades like FSD are going to go up dramatically with time, and that the cars might have to eventually be priced higher because they're going to become a better value.

People on the outside who generally buy more mainstream cars might see it as potentially getting involved with a company that might be priced more or less affordably now, but is moving away from it. And even though I'm used to Elon Musk making wild statements on twitter, a part of me wonders how true parts of it are, and if perhaps 10 years from now a Tesla will be out of my reach. I know it won't be my only decent EV option anymore by then, but I'd still feel sad not to be part of the revolutionary side of things anymore.


----------



## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

JasonF said:


> That last quote was a little out of context. I was talking about the message that Tesla is sending to potential customers out there because of inconsistency in the mission it's projecting. How one minute Elon Musk is interested in a $25,000 mainstream EV, and the next minute he's tweeting about that the cost of upgrades like FSD are going to go up dramatically with time, and that the cars might have to eventually be priced higher because they're going to become a better value.
> 
> People on the outside who generally buy more mainstream cars might see it as potentially getting involved with a company that might be priced more or less affordably now, but is moving away from it. And even though I'm used to Elon Musk making wild statements on twitter, a part of me wonders how true parts of it are, and if perhaps 10 years from now a Tesla will be out of my reach. I know it won't be my only decent EV option anymore by then, but I'd still feel sad not to be part of the revolutionary side of things anymore.


If a HW3 car became a works anywhere, anytime robotaxi tomorrow, how much would it be worth? A lot more than $10k. He may be delusional on achieving it or at least the timing but he believes that and that's where those statements come from. This is separate from the cost of building the car. So as battery prices go down the cost of the car will too. I've never heard Elon say he only wants to build robotaxis.


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

JasonF said:


> That last quote was a little out of context. I was talking about the message that Tesla is sending to potential customers out there because of inconsistency in the mission it's projecting. How *one minute Elon Musk is interested in a $25,000 mainstream EV, and the next minute he's tweeting about that the cost of upgrades like FSD are going to go up dramatically with time, and that the cars might have to eventually be priced higher because they're going to become a better value*.
> 
> People on the outside who generally buy more mainstream cars might see it as potentially getting involved with a company that might be priced more or less affordably now, but is moving away from it. And even though I'm used to Elon Musk making wild statements on twitter, a part of me wonders how true parts of it are, and if perhaps 10 years from now a Tesla will be out of my reach. I know it won't be my only decent EV option anymore by then, but I'd still feel sad not to be part of the revolutionary side of things anymore.


That makes perfect sense to me.

A $25k car and the price of FSD are 2 separate things that have nothing to do with each other.

Every price reduction of $5000 allows an additional half a billion customers to enter your market space. This car would double that. To me...this $25k car is a "capture the entire market" effort.

We are Tesla - "We have something for everyone"

On the other hand FSD will go up dramatically in price.

I don't see the disparity. Most $25k car buyers aren't going to buy a software feature worth half the value of their car. However....if they want to...the car will probably be equipped to do so.


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> That makes perfect sense to me.
> 
> A $25k car and the price of FSD are 2 separate things that have nothing to do with each other.
> 
> ...


One of Musk's argument is that FSD will drive better than a human, that it will be safer, that it will dramatically reduce the number of road fatalities. If the price is so high that it's out of reach of all but the richer among us, it defeats that goal. If FSD is that good, it should not be destined to be solely a driver for rich people or taxicabs. I would push for the government to make it mandatory like seatbelts and airbags.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

Garlan Garner said:


> That makes perfect sense to me.
> 
> A $25k car and the price of FSD are 2 separate things that have nothing to do with each other.
> 
> ...


 You're right, 2 separate things

A $25k Tesla will be something we can purchase and drive.

FSD will be something we're still waiting for 😂 .


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

francoisp said:


> One of Musk's argument is that FSD will drive better than a human, that it will be safer, that it will dramatically reduce the number of road fatalities. If the price is so high that it's out of reach of all but the richer among us, it defeats that goal. If FSD is that good, it should not be destined to be solely a driver for rich people or taxicabs. I would push for the government to make it mandatory like seatbelts and airbags.


I think you are mixing conversations.

The purchase of FSD by customers is not the singular effort Elon is talking about when speaking about dramatically reducing the number of road fatalities.

Tesla provided robo-taxis equipped vehicles with FSD will dominate the roads - is the thought. Tesla might stop selling FSD to the public if the robo-taxi effort is successful as they state.

Lastly....you don't have to be rich to purchase FSD. It might be out of the price range for many, but obviously not for everyone. You don't raise the price of something that isn't selling. <--- There is no logic there.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

Garlan Garner said:


> I think you are mixing conversations.
> 
> The purchase of FSD by customers is not the singular effort Elon is talking about when speaking about dramatically reducing the number of road fatalities.
> 
> ...


Logic is rarely involved in Elon's decisions... case in point his Twitter posts.


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

shareef777 said:


> You're right, 2 separate things
> 
> A $25k Tesla will be something we can purchase and drive.
> 
> *FSD will be something we're still waiting for* 😂 .


FSD will never be here for drivers.

Its the name of a feature....not a explanation of the feature.

Disappointed? No. I did my homework before purchase 2.5 years ago. There were absolutely NO youtube videos showing it working. I didn't care what Elon said.


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

shareef777 said:


> Logic is rarely involved in Elon's decisions... case in point his Twitter posts.


Maybe....It doesn't bother me.

I have come to realize that the reason I might have a different point of view of many is because I don't care about what Elon says...nor what anyone says on social media. You have to care about what he says to be disappointed. Jealousy / Envy and all types of non admitted behavior is what people have for him...but....that comes with the territory.

I don't have anything at all against Elon at all. I don't know him. I do my own research about Tesla. I didn't buy and Elon. I bought a Tesla.

I feel for him though. He struggles with his optimism, as many do. He struggles with his past life and current. Money and fame doesn't resolve these things.

Anywhoo....His decisions in business decisions have been proven better than 99.9% of the business decisions every human has ever made - proven by the success of all of his companies.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

Garlan Garner said:


> Maybe....It doesn't bother me.
> 
> I have come to realize that the reason I might have a different point of view of many is because I don't care about what Elon says...nor what anyone says on social media. You have to care about what he says to be disappointed. Jealousy / Envy and all types of non admitted behavior is what people have for him...but....that comes with the territory.
> 
> ...


I've come to realize I'm not beholden to any corporation, even when I love their products.


----------



## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

Garlan Garner said:


> FSD will never be here for drivers.
> 
> Its the name of a feature....not a explanation of the feature.
> 
> Disappointed? No. I did my homework before purchase 2.5 years ago. There were absolutely NO youtube videos showing it working. I didn't care what Elon said.


Sure no Youtube but the video has been on Vimeo and the Tesla webpage for the last 4.5 years. 
https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

M3OC Rules said:


> Sure no Youtube but the video has been on Vimeo and the Tesla webpage for the last 4.5 years.
> https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware[/URL.


Got to love this sentence with FSD at $10k and climbing:

"Full autonomy will enable a Tesla to be substantially safer than a human driver, lower the financial cost of transportation for those who own a car ..."


----------



## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

francoisp said:


> Got to love this sentence with FSD at $10k and climbing:
> 
> "Full autonomy will enable a Tesla to be substantially safer than a human driver, lower the financial cost of transportation for those who own a car ..."


You don't have a chauffeur?


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

M3OC Rules said:


> You don't have a chauffeur?


Got one 2+ years ago. Still waiting for them to show up. It'll definitely probably maybe be sometime within the next year or years.


----------



## GDN (Oct 30, 2017)

M3OC Rules said:


> If a HW3 car became a works anywhere, anytime robotaxi tomorrow, how much would it be worth? A lot more than $10k. He may be delusional on achieving it or at least the timing but he believes that and that's where those statements come from. This is separate from the cost of building the car. So as battery prices go down the cost of the car will too. I've never heard Elon say he only wants to build robotaxis.


Except this is not true about the prices going down. There was actually just a small price increase if I recall on a couple of models. I'd put a hundred bucks on if we could find the real issue, that it is simply because there is talk of another govt rebate. Musk is going to get his hands on as much of it as he can.


----------



## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

GDN said:


> Except this is not true about the prices going down. There was actually just a small price increase if I recall on a couple of models.


The S Plaid+ went up $10K last week.


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

M3OC Rules said:


> Sure no Youtube but the video has been on Vimeo and the Tesla webpage for the last 4.5 years.
> https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware


The only way for the statements on the website or Vimeo to be untrue is if FSD will fail to ever exist.

The day after FSD local gets added to FSD highway.....then all of these threads can be deleted.

Then it will be a bunch of threads about how good it is or isn't.

There will always be criticism and scrutiny. That's just how people are being made these days.


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

It's almost here. Can't wait.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

Garlan Garner said:


> It's almost here. Can't wait.


Its been "almost here" for the last two years :tearsofjoy:


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

shareef777 said:


> Its been "almost here" for the last two years :tearsofjoy:


Which makes it even more exciting.


----------



## iChris93 (Feb 3, 2017)

Garlan Garner said:


> Which makes it even more exciting.


Unfortunately it begins to feel like the boy who cried wolf.


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

iChris93 said:


> Unfortunately it begins to feel like the boy who cried wolf.


How does it look like the boy who cried wolf? Really? You can actually see it working.
They boy that cried wolf didn't actually see a wolf.
even tesla's competition can see the FSD wolf.

Has anyone been watching video's of it actually working?
Has anyone been watching it improve as its being developed?
Has anyone been watching the increased number of people testing it?

There are tons of YouTube videos.

(53) Navigating around Pittsburg, CA in FSD BETA 8.2 - YouTube
(53) [FSD Beta 8.2] take me to the car wash - YouTube
(53) Tesla FSD In LA Traffic w/ Shelby Church - YouTube
(53) Waymo vs. Tesla Full Self-Driving Car | w/ Two Bit da Vinci - YouTube


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> How does it look like the boy who cried wolf? Really? You can actually see it working.
> They boy that cried wolf didn't actually see a wolf.
> 
> Has anyone been watching video's of it actually working?
> ...


On those videos there are also many situations where the car behaved unpredictably, erratically. Edge cases are a make or break for FSD: it needs to be 99.999% accurate to be trusted. Musk said so himself. FSD will be in beta for the foreseeable future and the burden will be on the driver.


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

francoisp said:


> On those videos there are slso many situations where the car behaved unpredictably. Edge cases are make or break for FSD: it needs to be 99.999% accurate to be trusted. Musk said so himself. FSD will be in beta for the foreseeable future.


The way tech seems to work though is it looks to be languishing and dragging for a while, and like it might never be complete, and then one day there's a huge breakthrough. We don't know when that will happen, but I think it will.

Just like the SpaceX Starship testing doesn't seem to be getting anywhere, but I think we're going to be surprised when very soon it's a whole vehicle preparing for its first real launch.


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

francoisp said:


> On those videos there are also many situations where the car behaved unpredictably, erratically. Edge cases are a make or break for FSD: it needs to be 99.999% accurate to be trusted. Musk said so himself. FSD will be in beta for the foreseeable future and the burden will be on the driver.


99.99999% right now?

Not for me. I don't even drive 99.99999% accurately. I'll take it at whatever percent accuracy it is right now - and receive any improvements Tesla sends out - just like for the highway FSD I have right now.

'm not sure who wouldn't take the local beta - that already purchased FSD.


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> 99.99999% right now?
> 
> Not for me. I don't even drive 99.99999% according to all of the rules. It doesn't have to drive better than me. I'll take it.
> 
> I purchased FSD and will willingly take whatever they have right now. I'm not sure who wouldn't take the local beta that already purchased FSD.


I get that. But at the same time you'll babysit this thing like you would with a student driver ... for years probably.


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

JasonF said:


> The way tech seems to work though is it looks to be languishing and dragging for a while, and like it might never be complete, and then one day there's a huge breakthrough. We don't know when that will happen, but I think it will.
> 
> Just like the SpaceX Starship testing doesn't seem to be getting anywhere, but I think we're going to be surprised when very soon it's a whole vehicle preparing for its first real launch.


Just like highway FSD.

It wasn't very good in the beginning.....and now its great.

highway FSD drives more accurately than I do.


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

francoisp said:


> I get that. But at the same time you'll babysit this thing like you would with a student driver ... for years probably.


babysit? What does that mean?

If I'm currently babysitting my FSD highway beta....then I'm willing to babysit my FSD local beta as well.


----------



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

TSLA shorts and FSD shorts had better get all of their comments in...because the inability to "short" is coming soon.


----------



## Madmolecule (Oct 8, 2018)

The people that purchased FSD or actually Tesla longs, not shorts. We believe the hype. I have believed all the comments Elon made on how amazing it would be and how it would work in parking lots and you could summon across the country. Tesla has created a lot of the fantasy uncertainty and doubt. I took an hour drive on a very good road yesterday And advanced auto pilot or FSD or whatever I have is certainly beta. I had to take over multiple times, way too many times in this stage, not that it was being unsafe it was just making unnatural choices that would be annoying to the other drivers and certainly was annoying to me. I also don't think tesla ever truly recognize the liability of full self driving. I think that's why the focus will be on user assisted automation where Tesla does not take on any additional liability especially in life and death scenarios. Tesla makes a very great product, but they are the only manufacture I'm aware of that is sold future undefined technology. And yes they will use this lack of definition to escape liability. Elon time might be defined in eons.

I will continue to criticize the product that I have paid for and has been oversold until they provide something that meets expectations. I did not dream of these expectations it is all part of the fantasy uncertainty and doubt.

The best I believe I can hope for now is advance cruise control. Waiting for Tesla to prove me wrong.

I have the signs made not to brag, but to warn other drivers, like a student driver warning.









Elon Electrify Cuba!


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

Madmolecule said:


> The people that purchased FSD or actually Tesla longs, not shorts. We believe the hype. I have believed all the comments Elon made on how amazing it would be and how it would work in parking lots and you could summon across the country. Tesla has created a lot of the fantasy uncertainty and doubt. I took an hour drive on a very good road yesterday And advanced auto pilot or FSD or whatever I have is certainly beta. I had to take over multiple times, way too many times in this stage, not that it was being unsafe it was just making unnatural choices that would be annoying to the other drivers and certainly was annoying to me. I also don't think tesla ever truly recognize the liability of full self driving. I think that's why the focus will be on user assisted automation where Tesla does not take on any additional liability especially in life and death scenarios. Tesla makes a very great product, but they are the only manufacture I'm aware of that is sold future undefined technology. And yes they will use this lack of definition to escape liability. Elon time might be defined in eons.
> 
> I will continue to criticize the product that I have paid for and has been oversold until they provide something that meets expectations. I did not dream of these expectations it is all part of the fantasy uncertainty and doubt.
> 
> ...


Couldn't agree more. Tesla has been advertising this future FSD solution for years without defining limits and/or timelines. All we've heard in the past is "this year" ... for three years in a row now!

"Takes you from A to B" is what I was told. Years later it can't take me out of my driveway! I'm not falling for those beta videos. Tesla had a video of the car driving itself years ago. Having social media influencers doing the same doesn't do much for the average joe. I didn't pay for FSD to watch social media based marketing.


----------



## NJturtlePower (Dec 19, 2017)

Them be fighting words.... But he's not wrong! 😂


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

NJturtlePower said:


> Them be fighting words.... But he's not wrong! 😂


I read about it yesterday. Sounds like an interesting technology and it won't require holding the steering wheel. Also it will cost $600 but requires purchasing an additional package.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

NJturtlePower said:


> Them be fighting words.... But he's not wrong! 😂
> 
> View attachment 38033


 "We tested" could mean ANYTHING. "We tested in the real world on our test track" lol


----------



## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

shareef777 said:


> "We tested" could mean ANYTHING. "We tested in the real world on our test track" lol


Good point. Does anyone actually believe that Tesla puts beta functionality out there without significant in house testing first?


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

shareef777 said:


> "We tested" could mean ANYTHING. "We tested in the real world on our test track" lol


From the news article:


> In the preparation for the release, several months before the actual launch, the automaker embarked on what it calls the "mother of all road trips" to test the system. In November 2020, Ford sent a fleet of five F-150s and five Mustang Mach-Es on a 110,000-mile (177,000-kilometer) road trip through 37 states in the US and 5 Canadian provinces. The epic test journey was the final step in a long development process, which also included a series of shorter test drives, each designed to evaluate a specific aspect of BlueCruise.


It does not compare with Tesla's fleet and years of development and refinement but it's more than just running on a "test track".

https://www.motor1.com/news/500952/ford-bluecruise-self-driving-tech/


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

FRC said:


> Good point. Does anyone actually believe that Tesla puts beta functionality out there without significant in house testing first?


Is this sarcasm or a serious question? Because my answer is ... I wonder sometimes.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

francoisp said:


> From the news article:
> 
> It does not compare with Tesla's fleet and years of development and refinement but it's more than just running on a "test track".
> 
> https://www.motor1.com/news/500952/ford-bluecruise-self-driving-tech/


From the article: "Where Blue Cruise can't compete, though, are in automatic lane changes". Sooooo, is this just hands-free adaptive cruise control!? What's the point if it doesn't change lanes or do anything that ACC already does?


----------



## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

NJturtlePower said:


> Them be fighting words.... But he's not wrong! 😂


Its good marketing. No real downside. Regardless of beta labeling, is it better or worse including user experience, safety, and capability? We do know it's less capable and perhaps it's a better user experience when it's available to use based on Cadillac reviews as it sounds very similar. Personally I'd take wheel tugs over limited to freeways and no lane change for sure. But if you can sleep with your eyes open. Then Ford is a clear winner.


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

shareef777 said:


> From the article: "Where Blue Cruise can't compete, though, are in automatic lane changes". Sooooo, is this just hands-free adaptive cruise control!? What's the point if it doesn't change lanes or do anything that ACC already does?


It's a start, not the end. It'll get better overtime like ... Tesla.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

francoisp said:


> It's a start, not the end. It'll get better overtime like ... Tesla.


Is it? My 2018 Honda Accord had ACC and LKAS that cruised down the highway and was capable of stop/go traffic. What I'm trying to understand is how Ford's solution is any different other then allowing me to keep my hands on my lap. Which, incidentally, feels somewhat awkward just staring out a window with your hands in your lap.


----------



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

shareef777 said:


> Is it? My 2018 Honda Accord had ACC and LKAS that cruised down the highway and was capable of stop/go traffic. What I'm trying to understand is how Ford's solution is any different other then allowing me to keep my hands on my lap. Which, incidentally, feels somewhat awkward just staring out a window with your hands in your lap.


In the article it is written that the Blue Cruise software comes with 3 years of service which I choose to interpret as software updates. There's no doubt Tesla is ahead but a little competition is good for everyone.


----------



## iChris93 (Feb 3, 2017)

francoisp said:


> a little competition is good for everyone.


Exactly!


----------



## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

So, since I suggested the subscription model, should I be expecting Elon to be offering me a oaid-in-fullourchase? Don't EVER forget who suggested what many called nonsensical!!!


----------



## tivoboy (Mar 24, 2017)

urquattro83 said:


> So, since I suggested the subscription model, should I be expecting Elon to be offering me a oaid-in-fullourchase? Don't EVER forget who suggested what many called nonsensical!!!


Tweet to Elon.. I'm sure he'll comp you say an additional month on top of the free month most users will get To try it out. ;-)


----------



## Madmolecule (Oct 8, 2018)

urquattro83 said:


> So, since I suggested the subscription model, should I be expecting Elon to be offering me a oaid-in-fullourchase? Don't EVER forget who suggested what many called nonsensical!!!


Add me to the list

From May 2019


Madmolecule said:


> Once they get Autopilot and FSD fully functional I would hope Telsa would add the features On-Demand. Since the hardware is on-board, especially the new models with version 3 computers, it could be a good revenue stream. Basically what I am proposing that you could purchase these features by the mile or by the hour. This would also be a good stepping stone to robo-taxi subscription model. If it raining you might be willing to shell out 10 bucks for a single use advanced summon.


----------



## JustTheTip (Jun 7, 2018)

We won’t see Tesla robotaxis for at least another 10 years. At this point, charging any amount of money for something still in pre-alpha testing is thievery.


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

JustTheTip said:


> We won't see Tesla robotaxis for at least another 10 years. At this point, charging any amount of money for something still in pre-alpha testing is thievery.


Try convincing Waymo of that...


----------



## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

Stock news ticker today:

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tes...ed-in-early-july-hints-email-from-the-company


----------



## Long Ranger (Jun 1, 2018)

Klaus-rf said:


> Stock news ticker today:
> 
> https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tes...ed-in-early-july-hints-email-from-the-company


If I'm reading this right, they're jumping to the conclusion that FSD subscription will be offered in July, simply because Tesla is offering a 3 month FSD trial to new owners in Taiwan? Huh? Tesla offered a similar 3 month FSD trial in the US at the end of 2020, did that mean subscriptions started back in January?


----------



## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

Interpreting "news stories" and relating their "source data" to "facts" is beyond my paygrade.


----------



## Madmolecule (Oct 8, 2018)

francoisp said:


> Is this sarcasm or a serious question? Because my answer is ... I wonder sometimes.


I have the same question myself. With some of the recent software releases I can't imagine any Tesla employee drove that version for any length of time and did not discover them. plus I would think If their job is the test the code they will be pushing a lot of buttons and trying many different situations To try to get it to break. I used to be known as smoke, there are very few circuit boards I couldn't get to smoke at some point or another.

But I believe Tesla has fast tracked software development using their AI. I believe they feel they have enough data from the Tesla fleet in their simulator that they only mainly test new versions of the software on this simulator. I believe this to be true at least for minor upgrades. I used to believe that they will put it out to 10,000 or so employees or paid testers, Get feedback, incorporate the feedback into the code, then release it to us under Beta.
A lot of the videos from the beta testers seem like beta trying not testing. To hear them state, yeah it worked pretty good I tried it for a little while can't seem to do all right. I think it had pothole detection I'm not really sure but it probably does. If I've been testing that I could've easily found some potholes and I will let people know whether it has pothole detection or not and whether it works or not. I would've verified where it works and where it doesn't work, that does not seem to be the goal of the beta testers, it seems more Just to lead the public that great things are coming. I have not seen one of the beta testers give it a failing grade. Or anything close to that. I wonder if they're allowed? Hey we're going to Mars also

as tesla tries to go full self driving or autonomous, this testing procedure I think will become critical. If someone has the answer to this please let me know cause I really have not heard how they test the software


----------



## lveronese (7 mo ago)

francoisp said:


> I'm not interested in using my car as a taxi and I don't expect to see this anytime soon. Personally, I don't see a reason to pay $10,000 up front based on a typical car ownership of around 8 years unless Tesla comes up with a way to transfer it to another car. A better way in my opinion is to charge a license fee. A license fee eliminate issues related to scrapping a car with FSD in an accident or trading for a new Tesla. I also think that a fair price would be around $100/month or $1000/year. Based on a typical car's lifespan of 12 years, that's a $12,000 revenue potential in today's dollars. This would probably encourage more people to test and adopt FSD as opposed to presenting them with an additional $10,000 option on a $40,000 car or the $25,000 one that Musk has alluded to.


What about pay per use? Teslas know everything about our usage of the car so why not pay for a feature based on usage?


----------



## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

lveronese said:


> What about pay per use? Teslas know everything about our usage of the car so why not pay for a feature based on usage?


Pay for a feature that doesn't either exist or doesn't work on a 'per month" basis"???

I've got as bridge I can rent to you.


----------



## TomT (Apr 1, 2019)

FRC said:


> Good point. Does anyone actually believe that Tesla puts beta functionality out there without significant in house testing first?


Sometimes it sure feels like they don't!


----------



## lveronese (7 mo ago)

Klaus-rf said:


> Pay for a feature that doesn't either exist or doesn't work on a 'per month" basis"???
> 
> I've got as bridge I can rent to you.


No, not on a monthly basis but when you use it. So it's up to you how much to use it based on your personal requirements. Personally I think that FSD is not interesting per se. I would not pay for it even fully working unless it was really much cheaper. I'd pay for much better safety coming from it but not for the self driving experience itself. But once autonomous driving is reached the whole transportation world is completely disrupted. You don't need to own a car anymore. Just call it with your phone when you need it.


----------



## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

lveronese said:


> You don't need to own a car anymore. Just call it with your phone when you need it.


 Don't _need_ to own a car NOW. Uber for three years usage is cheaper than FSD. And you truly don't need to keep your hands on the wheel or your eyes on the road.


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

Klaus-rf said:


> Don't _need_ to own a car NOW. Uber for three years usage is cheaper than FSD. And you truly don't need to keep your hands on the wheel or your eyes on the road.


I've been correcting this everywhere, because it's a myth that keeps going around and perpetuated as a reason why no one needs a car anymore. I've actually added up how much it would cost for an average retail worker to take an Uber to work and back home each day - it's about $40/day. Assuming a 5 day work week and no surge pricing, that's $200/week, which is about $800/month. That's much higher than a _new_ car payment on a cheap car, let alone a used one, and it's about half the income of an average retail worker. Uber being cheaper is _highly_ conditional - it only works out that way if you work from home, and you plan 1 or 2 trips a week from there.

My personal belief is that myth was started by automakers who make a lot of low-margin vehicles. They're the top sellers, but if they can trick those buyers into believing that Uber is cheaper and they don't need a car, they can drop those models and those buyers and stick to higher-margin luxury vehicles. Our economy has changed so that it looks better to investors for a company to be losing money selling high-margin items than to be profitable and selling low-margin items.


----------



## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

Yeah, I don’t understand the logic of Uber as a car replacement. The average person drives 15k miles a year. At $1.50/mi (that was the estimate it showed for a commute to my office). It’s over $20k a year!!!!


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

shareef777 said:


> Yeah, I don’t understand the logic of Uber as a car replacement. The average person drives 15k miles a year. At $1.50/mi (that was the estimate it showed for a commute to my office). It’s over $20k a year!!!!


Wow, that’s way better math than I did!


----------



## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

I wonder what Uber would charge for my road trip to Alaska next month??


----------



## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

I _did_ live without a car for several years about a decade ago. I lived in the suburbs, owned a house, and took road trips.

Yes, it was important that I could get to work on commuter rail.

I got groceries delivered.

For road trips, I rented a car.

For buying big stuff, I rented a car or van.

I also operated on the principle that I was saving a ton of money by not owning a car, so I could afford to "splurge" on a taxi fairly often.

It did save me money, and I really didn't feel like I was giving much up. In fact, it was neat to be able to have whatever kind of car I needed for whatever task by renting.

But I understand it wouldn't work for everyone. For one thing, I needed to be near commuter rail and near a car rental place.


----------



## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

DocScott said:


> But I understand it wouldn't work for everyone. For one thing, I needed to be near commuter rail and near a car rental place.


This is a very important distinction, and unfortunately not an option for most people living in most suburbs.

Building out a network of commuter rail where it never existed previously is also not an immediate solution, because it would in most cases take a decade or more, where the transportation crisis is much more immediate than that.

And even less viable is telling people who can't afford a car anymore to move closer to mass transit - which is probably a lot more expensive than buying a cheap car, with the cost of actually moving plus higher housing costs in a dense city.

I will add though that the biggest fault with city buses is that there are too few of them, meaning people in suburbs have to walk long distances to get to the stops, and wait long times for pickup. Smaller versions of buses that carry maybe 6-8 passengers in larger numbers that pick people up at their homes would be an improvement, but still would come with long delays, and might only be a slight cost savings over Uber, even driverless.


----------



## Blooman (8 mo ago)

Ed Woodrick said:


> FSD also reduces the need for a second or third car for many families.


It will also reduce the need for time to find a parking space. The car could just circle….


----------



## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

Blooman said:


> It will also reduce the need for time to find a parking space. The car could just circle….


So much for efficiency.


----------



## Blooman (8 mo ago)

Klaus-rf said:


> So much for efficiency.


Efficiency is relative. Globally it would be rubbish. The car would be the same - just more miles. But my efficiency would improve dramatically! 😉


----------

