# Considering buying ICE vs. EV today...



## svusa11 (Oct 27, 2017)

ummgood said:


> The issue is with the headliner is if they don't tell you what 'premium finishes throughout' means you go on youtube and watch some reviews, you look at the press kit images, you look at photos people took who could see the car up close, and you listen to people who own the car make statements on what is there. Then if you know a car came with those features then great that is what I'll get too and I plan on that.


so here is my plan, If I get an invite in Feb (Day 1, in-store reservation) I'm going to hold it for few weeks until dust settles. Personally, I dont care that much about headliner but my confidence in Tesla has been shaken a bit as I just don't know what other tricks they have in their hat!! (.... it was always planned at this stage theory)

I think I'm sure to test drive BMW 5 series before pulling trigger on M3, at 50K it puts me in that range.


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

svusa11 said:


> I think I'm sure to test drive BMW 5 series before pulling trigger on M3, at 50K it puts me in that range.


No it doesn't. You shouldn't compare a ICE car price wise with a BEV, yet. At this point in time the battery makes every BEV much more expensive. You will have to wait till somewhere between 2025 and 2030 to reach that point.
Now you need to compare with the BMW 3 series, it seems.
Through investment in the battery you pay up front for lower costs per mile/km and for the privilege to drive a superior non-polluting car.


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## Mike (Apr 4, 2016)

MichelT3 said:


> You will have to wait till somewhere between 2025 and 2030 to reach that point.


My guess is three years from today, Jan of 2021.


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

Mike said:


> My guess is three years from today, Jan of 2021.


I hope so. I was talking about costs without tax effects. I gave the predictions as far as I know them.


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## svusa11 (Oct 27, 2017)

MichelT3 said:


> No it doesn't. You shouldn't compare a ICE car price wise with a BEV, yet. At this point in time the battery makes every BEV much more expensive. You will have to wait till somewhere between 2025 and 2030 to reach that point.
> Now you need to compare with the BMW 3 series, it seems.


Ok.. I somewhat agree that BEV shouldn't be compared with ICE but if Tesla is said to lose 20% range during cold winter months, cost per mile calculation starts changing fast.

If I have to pick single most reason, why I would like to buy Tesla than it's AutoPilot & possibility of self-driving. If BMW could offer same functionality in 5 series, it would have been difficult to resist getting BMW. Though, Tesla is great American story so I would like to give them a chance but they will likely lose competitive advantage by 2020. I just hope they don't throw any more surprises. :tmi:


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## Mike (Apr 4, 2016)

MichelT3 said:


> I hope so. I was talking about costs without tax effects. I gave the predictions as far as I know them.


It's 18 minutes long, but makes a good case for 36 months from now. YMMV?


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

svusa11 said:


> Ok.. I somewhat agree that BEV shouldn't be compared with ICE but if Tesla is said to lose 20% range during cold winter months, cost per mile calculation starts changing fast.
> 
> If I have to pick single most reason, why I would like to buy Tesla than it's AutoPilot & possibility of self-driving. If BMW could offer same functionality in 5 series, it would have been difficult to resist getting BMW. Though, Tesla is great American story so I would like to give them a chance but they will likely lose competitive advantage by 2020. I just hope they don't throw any more surprises. :tmi:


If I understand right less range in winter has no effect on the charged kW/mile. Only on the kW that are available for use. But I may be wrong...
For me EAP is also important, but the fact that it's a long range BEV with supporting SuperCharging system, is by far the most important reason why I'm prepared to spend so much money on this car.
That it's an American car is a disadvantage which I accept.
Because of SC it will be long after 2020 before Tesla loses it's advantage. Other manufacturers probably won't catch up until somewhere between 2025 and 2030. Transforming the car industry has always been the intention of Tesla. And yes, they will probably always keep surprising us and the car industry. Mostly for better and sometimes for worse.


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## Mike (Apr 4, 2016)

MichelT3 said:


> but the fact that it's a long range BEV with supporting SuperCharging system, is by far the most important reason why I'm prepared to spend so much money on this car.


This is the most important feature, long range with supercharging.

The rest is all secondary.


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

Mike said:


> It's 18 minutes long, but makes a good case for 36 months from now. YMMV?


I agree. As always, Fully Charged is brilliant!

The cost of the car being equal in 2020 is just that, the cost of the car ... without the battery. That's what's being said.
An equal price including the battery will take a few more years.
I would be glad to be wrong, if it's cheaper with battery even before 2025. But I think these predictions to be a bit too optimistic. 
Still a very nice and illuminating show. A must see.


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