# Karpathy's departure



## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Did Karpathy's loose faith in his ability to make FSD a reality or did he simply burnout?


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

Could Tesla be moving its FSD R&D to China?


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

He has an academic background. He was at Tesla for over 5 years. He probably put his vision into motion, but at this point it's a lot of "engineering grunge work" that someone who is more academic and theory-focused wouldn't find appealing. So I'm guessing he's just looking for a new challenge.


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## lance.bailey (Apr 1, 2019)

"The rest is left as an exercise for the reader" - all academics, at some point in their career.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

*Munster Sees Pushback To Broader FSD Availability: *Karpathy's departure will move the general availability of the full self-driving suite from 2024 to 2025, Tesla analyst and *Loup Funds *co-founder *Gene Munster *said.

*Gary Black, the founder of Future Fund*, said Karpathy wouldn't have left Tesla if FSD was on the verge of Level 4 full self-driving.


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

garsh said:


> He has an academic background. He was at Tesla for over 5 years. He probably put his vision into motion, but at this point it's a lot of "engineering grunge work" that someone who is more academic and theory-focused wouldn't find appealing. So I'm guessing he's just looking for a new challenge.


the last 5 years:










"alright, well I tried, bye guys"


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## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

lance.bailey said:


> "The rest is left as an exercise for the reader" - all academics, at some point in their career.


Everything else is "Beyond the scope of this publication".


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## Madmolecule (Oct 8, 2018)

I wonder if he oversold the FSD capabilities or Elon saw the progress and exaggerated it’s progress and capabilities to us. It is clear they were not on the same page. When I bought my car they said It could do FSD with the v1 hardware. Now It can’t even recognize traffic lights with the old hardware, much less just self driving. What were they thinking? Was it ignorance, inexperience or crafting marketing. Either way they were nowhere near where they said they were and they had not accomplished what they said they had already accomplished.

He did not even go with the standard, spending more time with my family. which I feel he probably has the other job lined up.

what does this mean for the alleged bot.

Did he just not want to come in the office? I have been watching the investor videos, saying his departure is not really a big deal, it’s a natural progression in industry, and he was just a very small part, only on vision, and there’s actually hundreds of qualified engineers so we will not see any change in the progress.

Who from Tesla can be believed as to their progress and what is really going on. Elon’s dancing is getting old, it’s way past time to show your had. No need to pump future game changing products like the bot. Robotaxi, vans, semis, fart thruster roadsters, Mars, high speed hyperloops.

Put up and silence your critics.

it’s very possible Elon and asked him to leave, so he would have any excuse to kick the can to 23/24. We were so close to having it done, we almost won the battle of the nines, but now we’re having to regroup and it’s going to delay things.


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## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

I suspect that certain critics cannot be silenced.


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

FRC said:


> I suspect that certain critics cannot be silenced.


I don’t know about that. Pretty easy to silence critics in regards to FSD. Release it! And if it doesn’t exist (5years after you started taking money for it), then the critics are rights so why should they be silenced?


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

FRC said:


> I suspect that certain critics cannot be silenced.


It's Elon who keeps moving the FSD goalposts, not the critics. Yes, the _ultimate_ goal remains the same, but the claims of "the car will do X at level Y by date Z" are pretty much never met for the self-driving features. It's not even that they're late--it's that they're late, they don't do as much as promised, and they don't do it as well as promised.

As an example, remember the idea that Smart Summon would read signs and figure out where in a parking lot it was OK to park and park there? That was in 2018 and was promised by 2019. 

If a couple of those promises actually panned out as described, even if they came a bit later than promised, we could see how critics would react...


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## Madmolecule (Oct 8, 2018)

I wonder what California company Karpathy might fit in with. I doubt he’s gonna move to Texas and work for Exxon. The Tesla stock is at about the right point for Apple to purchase. Maybe the new rumored Apple car is actually the Tesla. I still think there’s got to be a better explanation for stagnation and delay then what we’ve been told.


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## Madmolecule (Oct 8, 2018)

sorry this was a post for dog fire safety day please delete


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## Madmolecule (Oct 8, 2018)

DocScott said:


> It's Elon who keeps moving the FSD goalposts, not the critics. Yes, the _ultimate_ goal remains the same, but the claims of "the car will do X at level Y by date Z" are pretty much never met for the self-driving features. It's not even that they're late--it's that they're late, they don't do as much as promised, and they don't do it as well as promised.
> 
> As an example, remember the idea that Smart Summon would read signs and figure out where in a parking lot it was OK to park and park there? That was in 2018 and was promised by 2019.
> 
> If a couple of those promises actually panned out as described, even if they came a bit later than promised, we could see how critics would react...


I’m still carrying my groceries in the rain to my car, four years later. I don’t think there’s any valet‘s that are fearful of losing their job. Uber is not scared of robotaxi. because of the robotaxi and Fantasy the Tesla is very much not compatible as an Uber driver. Without CarPlay or an Uber app most of the technology is useless. These were all features that were told to us that they have completed and tested and we’re just polishing and then we would have them do a magical over the air update. I’ve had a car with cruise control I have enjoyed it since the 90s. Stereo does rock, but so did my Pinto when I upgraded the eight track to tape cassette.


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

Madmolecule said:


> I’m still carrying my groceries in the rain to my car, four years later.


Why do you keep going grocery shopping in the rain?

A lot of people don't know that there is a world of difference between "robotaxi" and self-driving. Robotaxi's can just be taught a route, very much like a city bus would be on, except with more pickup and dropoff points. Even the best robotaxis would not be able to deviate off of their programmed route. Most of the training and tweaking comes from coding in the ability to handle multiple kinds of situations it might encounter on the route. And even then they need 'safety drivers' to intercept them when the AI can't figure out some new situation, like a bicyclist stopped directly in front of the robotaxi, flipping it the bird, and refusing to move.

"Full Self-Drive" can't have safety drivers, there are simply too many Teslas on the road. It can't have programmed routes, either, because sometimes a road ends up closed, or sometimes it's flooded, or sometimes there are angry bicyclists stopping and flipping the Tesla the bird and refusing to move. It has to 'just figure it out', and in a way that doesn't go full terminator and run over an angry bicyclist or pedestrian.

On that note, I have the feeling that if Tesla feels pressure to release "Full Self Drive", it will initially be on programmed routes only, like GM Cruise.


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## Madmolecule (Oct 8, 2018)

JasonF said:


> Why do you keep going grocery shopping in the rain?
> 
> A lot of people don't know that there is a world of difference between "robotaxi" and self-driving. Robotaxi's can just be taught a route, very much like a city bus would be on, except with more pickup and dropoff points. Even the best robotaxis would not be able to deviate off of their programmed route. Most of the training and tweaking comes from coding in the ability to handle multiple kinds of situations it might encounter on the route. And even then they need 'safety drivers' to intercept them when the AI can't figure out some new situation, like a bicyclist stopped directly in front of the robotaxi, flipping it the bird, and refusing to move.
> 
> ...


Who can the weather command?

I totally agree with you, but it is not at all what Tesla is saying they will be able to do. I really don’t see the robotaxi‘s working without a predetermined route that also lets pedestrians and other vehicles know that this is a robotaxi or an automated route.

Full self driving, in my opinion will not be released in the next few years, as I’ve been saying for the last couple years, due to the liability associated, as soon as the driver is not responsible for paying 100% attention..

it is amazing how far the product has come, it just clearly indicates to me that they way over sold it, It can’t get there, certainly on the hardware and sensors on the vehicle. Although I feel the biggest problem is Elon cannot Admit that level 4 is not attainable for the vehicles he has currently sold. I also feel if they put the focus on driver assistance, it would be a much more enjoyable experience for the driver, and something they could accomplish. The problem is the whole interface is based on the fact that the car would be driving and we would need a redesign in my opinion to focus on driver assistance.

I used to think Elon could not admit FSD’s defeat, because he was worried about the stock value. I believe now it’s is only ego.
He has been announcing ideas instead of products for years. I heard recently that after he tweeted about one hour service using the F1 model, afterwards he then met with the service department. Maybe a forward thinker, but I actually thought he had a plan for service, when the same day, the closest I could get a suspension service appointment was one month away, maybe if they went with the F2 model they could come up with five minute Tesla Martinizing


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

Madmolecule said:


> it is amazing how far the product has come, it just clearly indicates to me that they way over sold it, It can’t get there, certainly on the hardware and sensors on the vehicle. Although I feel the biggest problem is Elon cannot Admit that level 4 is not attainable for the vehicles he has currently sold. I also feel if they put the focus on driver assistance, it would be a much more enjoyable experience for the driver, and something they could accomplish. The problem is the whole interface is based on the fact that the car would be driving and we would need a redesign in my opinion to focus on driver assistance.


I think that a lot of what's ham-stringed FSD is that they're training it. They're feeding it millions of miles of camera data and experience and using machine learning so it can figure out how to handle all of those situations.

But as a human, how many times a week do you see something in traffic that you've never seen before? A driver that makes you say "What the hell are they doing?" or a crash that makes you say "How the hell did they even do that?" Well guess what? Machine learning can't handle that, even if it's networked to the cloud.

We can because we understand context, and when we're uncertain we can observe other people and copy them. AI hasn't achieved that yet, and we won't have real true level 4+ until it can.

In the mean time, I think the fate of current "FSD" will be to approve it only for certain pre-mapped roads, just like GM Cruise did, and it will still be incredibly needy and ask the driver to take over if a turtle is too close to the road. Is that worth $12,000 and increasing? Probably not. But because they have to put all of that machine learning and mapped data to use, they can at least beat GM on the number of roads that can use it.


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## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

JasonF said:


> But because they have to put all of that machine learning and mapped data to use, they can at least beat GM on the number of roads that can use it.


 Or the number of roads it fails on?


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

In other words, Tesla should not aim directly for L5.

I've heard a lot of people think the development autonomy should skip L3, because the hand-off between autonomy and human is hard. But I think people just have the wrong picture in their head. A good L3 system wouldn't try to hand it off to the human driver because of an impending accident! Instead, it would be like what @JasonF described as robotaxis: the car says "hey, folks, I've got a situation here. There's a cyclist stopped in front of me who won't let me move."

A good L3 system should have enough autonomy to stop safely on its own if it has to, preferably getting to the side of the road if that's possible and safe. Whether there's a human in the car (L3), or a remote operator or just someone who comes and rescues it (both variations on L4), that gives an opportunity for a comfortable hand-off.

And here's the big secret: human drivers are actually high-functioning L4 drivers. Read JD Power's description of the SAE definition of L5:

"Level 5 means a vehicle can drive itself everywhere in all conditions without any human interaction. A Level 5 vehicle is neither bound by geofencing nor affected by weather and transports human beings comfortably and efficiently without requiring a driver."

Is that true of a human driver? Do they never ever get stuck and need some help? Never pull over in a driving rainstorm because it's just a bit more than they want to handle at the moment? And are you confident that I could plop you down on any road in the world, whether it's an ice road up north or the craziest urban traffic in a dense city, and you'd be fine? With road signs in a language you don't read?

The difference between L3 and L4 is partially whether a human has to be in the car. And that in turn depends on whether the car is going to need help routinely or rarely. But they're actually fundamentally similar: as L3 is improved, it can gradually transition to L4. In fact, note that Smart Summon is technically L4!

But L5--that's a whole different beast. And since it's not clear to me that there are humans who are the equivalent of L5, I think it causes problems to try to develop it.


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## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

DocScott said:


> Is that true of a human driver? Do they never ever get stuck and need some help? Never pull over in a driving rainstorm because it's just a bit more than they want to handle at the moment? And are you confident that I could plop you down on any road in the world, whether it's an ice road up north or the craziest urban traffic in a dense city, and you'd be fine? With road signs in a language you don't read?


Reminds me of the movie Sorcerer and there's no way any computer "driver" could have completed that mission. At least most humans are smart enough to know that when the weather gets really bad, stop the car in a safe place and wait it out. If there's ice all over the road and no traction or when visibility is a couple feet at best a computer ain't gonna be driving better than a human at any time. FSD (all of them) have serious issues driving into the sun, much less on ice with 2 feet visibility rain or snow or fog (where it's completely worthless now).

What's this L5 system gonna do when it gets stuck knee-deep in mud?



> In fact, note that Smart Summon is technically L4!


 Curious - I consider Smart Summon totally broken and worthless (to me) - not even the Party Trick it was supposed to be. Unless you're the type that likes having your friends or co-workers watch your "fully automated" car run over curbs, plants, hit other objects trying to get somewhere, ... All by remote control with a cell phone app. "Hey Y'alls - watch this!" Just don't tell your wife or insurance company you were using playing with "Smart Summon".


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