# Dangerous Thread...But What The Hell!



## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

OK, so I know speculation can be a very dangerous thing especially when such a long wait is involved. That being said...I'm going to go there anyway!

I am guessing, and of course it is all guesswork at this point, that I will get my car sometime around the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2018. With all the tweets and posts about what is supposed to happen with Tesla cars between now and then I wonder what my car will actually be capable of when I get it. Specifically in relation to autopilot as well as performance etc.

What do you guys think? Not trying to stir the pot at all...just simple, harmless speculation! 

Dan


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## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

It all depends on quite a few factors:

1. When you reserved
2. Are you an employee/current Tesla owner
3. Geographical Region
4. Options chosen

Since we don't know the options we can only guess based on the other 3. Right now given their progress we know so far it looks like production will start in the summer of next year and ramp up in the fall/late 2017. I'd gather significant ramp and deliveries will really happens in the first half of 2018.

If Tesla does indeed hit a run rate of 8K cars/week and US reservations account for 200K of those then that's 25 weeks of cars or 6 months to fill the backlog alone. I have a feeling Tesla is accelerating Model 3 program so that US customers can take advantage of the Tax credit by timing with max ramp with hitting their 200K sale in the US so they have ample time to deliver the maximum amount of cars during the next 2 quarters when the maximum tax credit is still in effect.

I talk about the US tax credit again in the latest M3OC show due out in a couple of days and how it might pan out for everyone. It's something I've been thinking about a lot based on Elon's comments and Tesla's actions so far.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

TrevP said:


> It all depends on quite a few factors:
> 
> 1. When you reserved
> 2. Are you an employee/current Tesla owner
> ...


Thanks! Looking forward to Episod 10!


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