# TSLA Analyst Coverage - 2018 Q4



## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Based on the premarket...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1046375490859208706
Never wear shorts to a running of the bulls


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

We picked up our second Model 3 yesterday, the last day of Q3, in Bellevue, WA, also Pearl White but a Performance model this time. I was astounded by what I saw. It was a madhouse and the folks at the Bellevue location have been delivering Teslas at a mind-boggling rate. I was especially surprised at the number of people I saw driving off in brand new Model X's! Other takeaways from my day in Bellevue (just east of Seattle):

Tesla has been on a manufacturing roll in September. There was a sea of new Teslas and it was apparent that they were fresh off the presses and of very high quality. My new car was built in September as were the other 3 or 4 cars I happened to check. I spent some time looking for little manufacturing flaws like bad paint, misaligned trim or body panels, etc. but couldn't find anything significant as I looked at 20 or 30 new Teslas with a careful eye. My car had no squeaks or rattles on rough pavement, very solid feeling. Everything worked perfectly, just as on our first Model 3. I think Tesla is secretly in a manufacturing groove. The only question is can they keep it up over an extended period?

The sheer numbers are astounding. My sense is that these cars are still in very high demand and Q4 will be robust barring any unforeseen supply issues. The customer excitement was palatable, there were people traveling with overnight luggage from the far reaches of the state to pick-up their new EV's. There is a growing movement under-foot, everyone who is not too prejudiced against EV's are starting to want one. This movement is bigger and happening faster than most people think!


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Oh, Business Insider! You make me laugh so!

Tesla's board is so bad at its job that it failed at the one thing it says is paramount: protecting CEO Elon Musk


----------



## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

NY Times article on lack of demand thesis due to lots full of cars. Lazy reporting quoting refuted shorts posts complete with a Mark Spiegel quote. All they had to do was visit a delivery center or two and see plenty of demand.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/01/business/tesla-cars-questions.html


----------



## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

Unfortunately, this one I have to agree with. Tesla's creation of its own CRM software probably may be partially to blame for some of the delivery issues. I don't understand why Tesla has been so reactive in getting its delivery system up to speed.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4209220-teslas-logistics-hell-made-palo-alto


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Wow, Reuters is really reaching to get that negative headline today.

Tesla misses weekly Model 3 production target, flags tariff costs

_Tesla produced over 5,300 Model 3 cars in the last week of September, falling short of its target of 6,000._​Ok, yeah, sure. But they produced 53,239 Model 3s. *That's an average of 4437 per week*. And they did this while introducing a new dual-motor drivetrain to the production line.


----------



## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

Not even gonna bother giving these sites my click. Screw them. 

While I'm at it, screw Mark Spiegel and screw anyone hoping/wishing/wanting/betting against Tesla.


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

garsh said:


> Ok, yeah, sure. But they produced 53,239 Model 3s. *That's an average of 4437 per week*. And they did this while introducing a new dual-motor drivetrain to the production line.


That's a lot! I think it's hard for people to appreciate just how many that is. I think the Model S and X have averaged around 500-600/week?

When the Q3 financials are reported the real blow-out will be a MUCH higher than expected average selling price due to the balance of sales between Perf/AWD/RWD. This will blow the story apart that only "rich" people can afford a $60K car. People are smart, they know that $39K ICE car is going to cost them a lot more than $39K and get more stinky throughout its life. And a $59K ICE car is going to cost more than that in after sales expenses because it will get worse MPG and service and repairs will be more. This means Tesla is expanding the market for cars costing over $40K.


----------



## Jayc (May 19, 2016)

Lovesword said:


> and screw anyone hoping/wishing/wanting/betting against Tesla.


And that includes Jim Chanos and Bob Lutz - can't help but feel sorry.

Actually no, I don't feel sorry at all


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

PNWmisty said:


> This means Tesla is expanding the market for cars costing over $40K.


That's a very insightful point. I know I spent WAY above my normal range for a new car.


----------



## Gavyne (Jul 7, 2018)

Wonder Bob is so busy bashing Tesla, what would his response be about this?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/02/sales-of-chevys-electric-car-the-bolt-tank-41-percent.html


----------



## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

@gravityrydr said:


> Tesla's creation of its own CRM software probably may be partially to blame for some of the delivery issues. I don't understand why Tesla has been so reactive in getting its delivery system up to speed.


As someone who has been in enterprise software his whole career, I'm going to call BS on this article's claim that software selection (or lack thereof) is to blame for logistics hell. We know Tesla uses Salesforce for CRM, and that's about as no-hassle as you can get from an on-boarding standpoint, and flexible enough from a platform perspective to play well with a "my way or the highway" company like Tesla. (And I say this grudgingly as a Salesforce competitor.  ) But even if you have the perfect CRM system, it's not going to magically solve all of your customer-relationship problems, especially not in a fast-paced environment with constantly shifting priorities and policies. That is a human-made problem that only humans can solve.

As for ERP, Oracle, SAP, MS Dynamics, et al are hardly off-the-shelf solutions. The implementation timeline for any of these systems -- especially for a client like Tesla that would likely demand extensive customization -- is often measured in years, not weeks or months. Over that time period, not only are you paying for software licenses, custom development, and other implementation services, you're also paying for the project in terms of human capital, as key employees and stakeholders have to set their part of their jobs aside to help oversee various facets of the implementation. As a vulnerable, fledgling company heading toward its most significant product launch to date in 2012, taking on that kind of commitment (and risk) simply wasn't an option for Tesla. So, if Tesla decided to roll their own ERP back then, it was likely because it was the most (only?) viable solution, and one which provided greater odds for the company's survival than the alternatives.



@gravityrydr said:


> NY Times article on lack of demand thesis due to lots full of cars. Lazy reporting quoting refuted shorts posts complete with a Mark Spiegel quote. All they had to do was visit a delivery center or two and see plenty of demand.


I keep getting the sense that Goldman (or one of the other NYC-based institutional shorts) has a contact at the NY Times, and every time something goes wrong (or doesn't) for Tesla or Elon Musk, a laughably one-sided article shows up as a "Top Story," and I get a push alert on my phone. But when there's good news? Crickets. And let's not forget what happened with that most peculiar test drive of a Model S...


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

Gavyne said:


> Wonder Bob is so busy bashing Tesla, what would his response be about this?
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/02/sales-of-chevys-electric-car-the-bolt-tank-41-percent.html


Won't this mean GM will need to buy more ZEV credits from Tesla? I would rather see GM build their own EV that sells in profitable numbers. However, revenues from sales of ZEV credits could give Tesla blowout Q3 numbers.


----------



## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

@gravityrydr said:


> Unfortunately, this one I have to agree with. Tesla's creation of its own CRM software probably may be partially to blame for some of the delivery issues. I don't understand why Tesla has been so reactive in getting its delivery system up to speed.
> 
> https://seekingalpha.com/article/4209220-teslas-logistics-hell-made-palo-alto


Armchair quarterbacks who've never managed a $6B-a-quarter scaleup in their life talking about how everything would have been so much better had they been making the calls.

Every product in scaleup will *always* have at least one bottleneck somewhere. Because when you've removed it, something else becomes the bottleneck. People on SA are always criticizing whatever the current bottleneck happens to be, how it should have been forseen and prevented. Arguing that all bottlenecks should have been seen and prevented, which is basically what they collectively argue, is to argue that production scaleup should be instant. Which is, of course, an absurdity.

What you want to see is bottlenecks changing frequently. Which is what we're currently seeing. What you don't want to see is any particular bottleneck persisting for long periods. Which is what we saw for two quarters with the pack assembly problems.


----------



## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

Bokonon said:


> As someone who has been in enterprise software his whole career, I'm going to call BS on this article's claim that software selection (or lack thereof) is to blame for logistics hell. We know Tesla uses Salesforce for CRM, and that's about as no-hassle as you can get from an on-boarding standpoint, and flexible enough from a platform perspective to play well with a "my way or the highway" company like Tesla. (And I say this grudgingly as a Salesforce competitor.  ) But even if you have the perfect CRM system, it's not going to magically solve all of your customer-relationship problems, especially not in a fast-paced environment with constantly shifting priorities and policies. That is a human-made problem that only humans can solve.
> 
> As for ERP, Oracle, SAP, MS Dynamics, et al are hardly off-the-shelf solutions. The implementation timeline for any of these systems -- especially for a client like Tesla that would likely demand extensive customization -- is often measured in years, not weeks or months. Over that time period, not only are you paying for software licenses, custom development, and other implementation services, you're also paying for the project in terms of human capital, as key employees and stakeholders have to set their part of their jobs aside to help oversee various facets of the implementation. As a vulnerable, fledgling company heading toward its most significant product launch to date in 2012, taking on that kind of commitment (and risk) simply wasn't an option for Tesla. So, if Tesla decided to roll their own ERP back then, it was likely because it was the most (only?) viable solution, and one which provided greater odds for the company's survival than the alternatives.
> 
> I keep getting the sense that Goldman (or one of the other NYC-based institutional shorts) has a contact at the NY Times, and every time something goes wrong (or doesn't) for Tesla or Elon Musk, a laughably one-sided article shows up as a "Top Story," and I get a push alert on my phone. But when there's good news? Crickets. And let's not forget what happened with that most peculiar test drive of a Model S...


I stand corrected. I was not aware they were using Salesforce.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Bokonon said:


> I keep getting the sense that Goldman (or one of the other NYC-based institutional shorts) has a contact at the NY Times, and every time something goes wrong (or doesn't) for Tesla or Elon Musk, a laughably one-sided article shows up as a "Top Story," and I get a push alert on my phone. But when there's good news? Crickets. And let's not forget what happened with that most peculiar test drive of a Model S...


In some countries people get their hands chopped off for telling such lies. Just saying...


----------



## Jayc (May 19, 2016)

Jayc said:


> And that includes Jim Chanos and Bob Lutz - can't help but feel sorry.
> 
> Actually no, I don't feel sorry at all


Now this is what I don't get at all. CNBC do regular interviews with Bob Lutz asking him about his thoughts on Tesla production numbers. Who in their right mind would want to ask him?

Every single prediction he makes (and has made so far) has turned out to be wrong yet he gets to answer questions about Tesla Model 3. His commentary has zero value and it is not rocket science to understand that but this man gets a seat in a popular news channel to talk about things he does not know.

Are we living in a parallel universe or is there an audience dumb enough to not understand? Or is incorrect news more valuable than accurate news ?


----------



## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

Jayc said:


> Are we living in a parallel universe or is there an audience dumb enough to not understand? Or is incorrect news more valuable than accurate news ?


The snarky answer:
*"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ― George Carlin*

The real answer.
Remember, those of us on this board are much more informed than most when it comes to EVs and TESLA. Most people are too busy or just don't care.
There are many great journalists out there doing really good work. That being said there are also "journalists" that have found a nitch writing fast-food journalism. Unfortunately, we are in an era of first is best for many publications.


----------



## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

How about no. Just [email protected] no.

https://markets.businessinsider.com...h-to-take-over-as-chairman-2018-10-1027587137


----------



## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

@gravityrydr said:


> How about no. Just [email protected] no.
> 
> https://markets.businessinsider.com...h-to-take-over-as-chairman-2018-10-1027587137


If anyone from the A-team takes over, I want it to be B.A.

"Mr. CEO of Tesla, how do you feel about these 'Tesla killers' that other car companies are making?"

"I PITY THE FOO!" - B.A. Baracus, CEO, Tesla


----------



## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

@gravityrydr said:


> How about no. Just [email protected] no.
> 
> https://markets.businessinsider.com...h-to-take-over-as-chairman-2018-10-1027587137


Seriously. Look up James Murdoch and the BBC hacking scandal. The conclusions of the panel that investigated that case was scathing towards him, and all but outright stated "this guy has no business acting as the chairman of a company".

Cue 2018, and calls for Murdoch to be made Tesla's chairman....

Hell freaking no. Shouldn't even be on the board.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

The hacks at SeekingAlpha are downplaying Tesla's accomplishment.

Tesla: Q4 Now The Hard Part
_
"This was a decent number post guidance, but the initial forecast was well below expectations. Remember, things were supposed to be much higher given multiple weeks of 5,000 plus in July and management's goal to be at 6,000 a week in late August. It appears Tesla is nowhere close to that level "

"Deliveries were about 2,600 more than production for the Model 3, which is a smaller gap than I was expecting."

"The China headwind is just one of many Tesla will be facing moving forward. The US tax credit starts to roll back in less than three months, along with a much larger tax break expiring in The Netherlands"

"So while Tesla was basically able to hit its marks for Q3, there weren't too many expectations that these low hurdles would be missed. "
_​


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

garsh said:


> The hacks at SeekingAlpha are downplaying Tesla's accomplishment.
> 
> Tesla: Q4 Now The Hard Part
> _
> ...


Unfortunately the 6k per week was self imposed by Musk. Another example of over promising and under delivering. He should stop feeding the bear with such statements, unless Tesla can beat the goal for certain.

I'm an Elon fan who's totally frustrated with Elon.

Due to current negative perception of the media, Elon cannot give them any opportunity to nitpick on the most minute of details. Once the negative sentiment has lifted, then it's a different story.

What's really frustrating is that this has been going on for years. Not good for long term investors such as myself. I would have done much better had I invested in other companies. Good buying opportunities for those who continue to watch from the sidelines. TSLA is about to turn around for sure, but it's been years later than I anticipated.


----------



## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> What's really frustrating is that this has been going on for years. Not good for long term investors such as myself. I would have done much better had I invested in other companies.


Years. Plural. So at least two. Let's go with two years. TSLA is 50% higher than it was two years ago, slightly beating the broader market.

Yes, you can with hindsight pick other stocks that have grown more, but that's not the point.


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> What's really frustrating is that this has been going on for years. Not good for long term investors such as myself. I would have done much better had I invested in other companies. Good buying opportunities for those who continue to watch from the sidelines. TSLA is about to turn around for sure, but it's been years later than I anticipated.


True, for those who bought in the last 5 years. But if you got in 6 years ago, you are looking at a 10-bagger (1000% appreciation), very strong capital appreciation by anyone's standards.

There has been a lot of focus on production since the initial launch of the Model 3 (and mostly for good reason). I think, going forward, TSLA valuation metrics will shift to how well demand for Teslas sustains itself and larger market forces like the current trade war between the US and China. Without that, TSLA would likely be trading over $400 now. It's hard to predict if/when the current trade war will settle down (or if it will escalate further) but, headlines that China and the US have "kissed and made-up" will cause TSLA to skyrocket.

While Musk's tweets can cause TSLA to shoot up or down almost instantly, and start or end a short-term trend in the share price (whether positive or negative), my opinion is Musk's tweets have had very little impact on the overall valuation of TSLA, just served to make the share price more volatile and perhaps increase investor interest enough to cause TSLA to be valued slightly higher on average than if Musk was more conservative in his comments and forward guidance. In the big picture his tweets are largely inconsequential and, with the SEC settlement, mostly taken out of the picture. If Musk can't hold his tongue any better than in the past, he could now do real damage. Because he's been told to "knock it off".

If China and the US kiss and make-up, you want to own TSLA shares. The trade war is doing significant damage to many US industries and the sooner it's over, the better.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Unfortunately the 6k per week was self imposed by Musk. Another example of over promising and under delivering.


At this point, it should be clear to everybody that Musk's "goals" are aspirational. It's what they hope to achieve if no issues are encountered. Secondly, it should also be clear that these are goals, not promises. Sure, the short-sellers always spin this as "Tesla misses their goal again", but if you ignore the goals and just look at what Tesla has accomplished these last several years, it's pretty clear that it's unprecedented and amazing.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

garsh said:


> At this point, it should be clear to everybody that Musk's "goals" are aspirational. It's what they hope to achieve if no issues are encountered. Secondly, it should also be clear that these are goals, not promises. Sure, the short-sellers always spin this as "Tesla misses their goal again", but if you ignore the goals and just look at what Tesla has accomplished these last several years, it's pretty clear that it's unprecedented and amazing.


Totally agree with you. Just frustrated with how the general market sentiment conflicts with our views. The bears have a lot of good material to work with, and lately Elon Musk has been their primary source. Funny how easy it is to crash a stock with a few careless tweets (by the friggin CEO!).

Makes me shudder to think about what could happen now that the Presidential alert system is active. Sorry, I digress!


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Not sure about how true this is, but supposedly Elon threatened to quit Tesla over the weekend due to the SEC lawsuit. I must say that my confidence in him has been shaken. Did anyone see this video?


----------



## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

It was reported (in more reputable outlets than random YouTube videos). My reaction was... "and"? So Elon played hardball with the board. Good for him.

You seem a lot more bothered about this than me. What I'm bothered about is the risk of Musk losing power on the board, not that he bothered to exert it.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> It was reported (in more reputable outlets than random YouTube videos). My reaction was... "and"? So Elon played hardball with the board. Good for him.
> 
> You seem a lot more bothered about this than me. What I'm bothered about is the risk of Musk losing power on the board, not that he bothered to exert it.


I'm bothered about Musk losing power to control himself. Yes, I'm wholly more frustrated than you. Hopefully he gets over it and becomes the leader he's truly meant to be.


----------



## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> I'm bothered about Musk losing power to control himself. Yes, I'm wholly more frustrated than you. Hopefully he gets over it and becomes the leader he's truly meant to be.


What exactly is it about wanting the board to back its CEO is "losing power to control himself"? A board is either supposed to back its CEO or get rid of them. That's literally the primary purpose of a board of directors. Telling them "back me or I'm gone" is literally telling them "do the job a board of directors exists to do" If you don't want to either support or oppose your CEO and just want to sit on the sidelines, you have no business serving on a corporate board.

Musk has built up multiple incredible companies from the ground up. Do I want Musk calling the shots or someone like Murdoch? Do I even have to ask that question? Yes, of course I think the board should impose a stricter executive social media and communications policy (NOT a gag rule, but a filter). But what I absolutely don't want to see is a coup, handing the reins to someone who lacks the sort of insight that led to Tesla being able to break past multiple "uncrossable" moats and grow at this incredible rate.


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> I'm bothered about Musk losing power to control himself. Yes, I'm wholly more frustrated than you. Hopefully he gets over it and becomes the leader he's truly meant to be.


While I thought some of his comments were unwise and unproductive, it's really hard to judge this from where we are sitting. My personal belief is there's more method to his madness than you or I know. I'm not defending him, just saying that it's not clear to me that he doesn't know what he's doing. The expression "All publicity is good publicity" comes to mind. Tesla has no advertising budget, I think everyone has a bit of rebel inside them can can relate to Musk's tweets, "bad boy" nature and little indiscretions.

That said, now is probably a good time for him to "tip-toe through the tulips" until things cool off.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> What exactly is it about wanting the board to back its CEO is "losing power to control himself"? A board is either supposed to back its CEO or get rid of them. That's literally the primary purpose of a board of directors. Telling them "back me or I'm gone" is literally telling them "do the job a board of directors exists to do" If you don't want to either support or oppose your CEO and just want to sit on the sidelines, you have no business serving on a corporate board.
> 
> Musk has built up multiple incredible companies from the ground up. Do I want Musk calling the shots or someone like Murdoch? Do I even have to ask that question? Yes, of course I think the board should impose a stricter executive social media and communications policy (NOT a gag rule, but a filter). But what I absolutely don't want to see is a coup, handing the reins to someone who lacks the sort of insight that led to Tesla being able to break past multiple "uncrossable" moats and grow at this incredible rate.


Totally agree with you that Musk should be CEO and that it's the board's duty to support him.

I just can't help but notice Elon's instability though... Using 420 as a round figure to impress his girlfriend. It seems like he goes berserk every time he breaks up with his girlfriends. It's good to know that he's human, but at the same time it makes me question his ability to be an effective and committed leader. It's the little things... He may be playing circus on purpose... who knows? He's a smart guy after all. Or are his childhood frustrations playing on his weaknesses? I do hope he's just toying with us. Yeah all of this frustration stems from shallow observations, but a real threat to Tesla's success if it gets out of hand.


----------



## Gavyne (Jul 7, 2018)

All I can say is screw everybody, I miss Elon. He's no longer tweeting, we can no longer get hints of what they are working on, or have a conversation with him. One of the reasons why people like him so much is because he's so different from other CEO's. Others like Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos hide away from the public. You don't feel like they are one of us.

I don't like this subdued Elon one bit. And without him saying anything, FUD is in full swing and nobody is countering the crap that's being spread around. Maybe this was their plan all along, to get rid of Elon or subdue him so they can say anything and post any headlines without resistance.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Gavyne said:


> All I can say is screw everybody, I miss Elon. He's no longer tweeting...


You just had to go and egg him on, didn't you? 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1047943670350020608
Shortseller Enrichment Commission! That's gold, Jerry! Gold!


----------



## Gavyne (Jul 7, 2018)

LOL


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

If only Elon could have warned his six-year-younger self...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1047997866474594304


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Oh geez, what now? Tesla is about to leave production hell and now Elon wants to enter legal hell.

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast...2#episodeGuid=http://techcastdaily.com/?p=633


----------



## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Oh geez, what now? Tesla is about to leave production hell and now Elon wants to enter legal hell.
> 
> https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/tesla-daily-tesla-news-analysis/id1273643094?mt=2#episodeGuid=http://techcastdaily.com/?p=633


What is this? What have you done to me?


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Lovesword said:


> What is this? What have you done to me?
> View attachment 15512


It's one of the best things in media coverage of Tesla - Rob Maurer's Tesla Daily Podcast!

Here's an alternate link on Stitcher:


----------



## JWardell (May 9, 2016)

Question: Can the board just appoint the new members? Don't the shareholders have to vote to approve first?


----------



## DrPhyzx (Nov 20, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> In some countries people get their hands chopped off for telling such lies. Just saying...


???

People do things all the time in the US that would get their hands chopped off in some countries, including you. Not sure what your point is.


----------



## DrPhyzx (Nov 20, 2017)

PNWmisty said:


> Won't this mean GM will need to buy more ZEV credits from Tesla? I would rather see GM build their own EV that sells in profitable numbers. However, revenues from sales of ZEV credits could give Tesla blowout Q3 numbers.


Don't think so... GM has a large ZEV credit balance and I believe even depressed sales of their EV portfolio can keep up with their credit needs. Other manufacturers will still need them, but I suspect it won't be long before there is a glut of EV credits, based on product introductions recently and in the near future.


----------



## DrPhyzx (Nov 20, 2017)

Jayc said:


> Now this is what I don't get at all. CNBC do regular interviews with Bob Lutz asking him about his thoughts on Tesla production numbers. Who in their right mind would want to ask him?
> 
> Every single prediction he makes (and has made so far) has turned out to be wrong yet he gets to answer questions about Tesla Model 3. His commentary has zero value and it is not rocket science to understand that but this man gets a seat in a popular news channel to talk about things he does not know.
> 
> Are we living in a parallel universe or is there an audience dumb enough to not understand? Or is incorrect news more valuable than accurate news ?


Yeah, Bob is a dinosaur. He not wrong all the time, but he is wrong all the time about some things.


----------



## DrPhyzx (Nov 20, 2017)

KarenRei said:


> Years. Plural. So at least two. Let's go with two years. TSLA is 50% higher than it was two years ago, slightly beating the broader market.
> 
> Yes, you can with hindsight pick other stocks that have grown more, but that's not the point.


In hindsight, you can also pick a 2 year window where TSLA rose 50% or more, and you just did, but there are very few such 2-year windows.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

> ???
> 
> People do things all the time in the US that would get their hands chopped off in some countries, including you. Not sure what your point is.


To all those I've offended in this forum, I didn't mean to... and I apologize. Just venting out my anger towards the shorts, naysayers and the corrupt media. Peace out!


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

DrPhyzx said:


> Don't think so... GM has a large ZEV credit balance and I believe even depressed sales of their EV portfolio can keep up with their credit needs. Other manufacturers will still need them, but I suspect it won't be long before there is a glut of EV credits, based on product introductions recently and in the near future.


I see their Bolt sales continuing to decline. While I haven't looked at the math, I would think they would need something more to offset all those gas guzzling pickups and big SUV's. We will see.


----------



## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

PNWmisty said:


> I see their Bolt sales continuing to decline.


Speaking of which: 




The key moment is at 1:30...John McElroy may be coming around, but he still can't use the "T" word to describe why Bolt sales are plunging, although they at least put up a short clip of the Model 3!


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

NOGA$4ME said:


> John McElroy may be coming around, but he still can't use the "T" word to describe why Bolt sales are plunging, although they at least put up a short clip of the Model 3!


John McElroy is more pro-Tesla than we thought. Read his article here: https://teslaownersonline.com/threads/drank-the-tesla-kool-aid-and-converted.8713/


----------



## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> John McElroy is more pro-Tesla than we thought. Read his article here: https://teslaownersonline.com/threads/drank-the-tesla-kool-aid-and-converted.8713/


Yes, I did read that, which was the reason for my "coming around" comment.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

NOGA$4ME said:


> Yes, I did read that, which was the reason for my "coming around" comment.


Got it. I skimmed through your post and misread it somehow. 

I'm guessing that many in his audience deem the word "Tesla" in the same fashion as "Voldemort" in the Harry Potter series.  Showing the Model 3 clip without uttering a word about it may actually have been quite tactful of him, I could imagine, if his viewers are mostly ICE aficionados. As if stating that everyone already knows about the elephant in the room that's causing Chevy Bolt's slump in sales, so might as well show some beautiful Model 3 footage to serve as an obvious and ominous reminder of Tesla's ongoing disruption.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

TSLA is under $254. Jumped in. Hopefully this isn’t the start of a market correction. Did anyone else pick up some shares lately?


----------



## Samsaggace (Jul 27, 2018)

Bought stocks yesterday at $250. Today at $263. Waiting for strong recovery in near future, especially after Q3 results.
This should pay my M3 options.


----------



## Samsaggace (Jul 27, 2018)

$TSLA at $270 today !
Judge approves SEC/Musk settlement !
All good news. Elon, no tweet please !
Hoping Q3 should be break-even and sky will be the limit for stock value...
After that I will ask Elon/Santa Claus to register my firm M3 order before Christmas ...


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Why Tesla skeptics are feeling so good
Jim Chanos is liberally quoted for this story, so prepare yourself.

Stock back down in the 250's.
If it goes below 250, I'm going to seriously consider getting some more.


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

garsh said:


> Why Tesla skeptics are feeling so good
> Jim Chanos is liberally quoted for this story, so prepare yourself.
> 
> Stock back down in the 250's.
> If it goes below 250, I'm going to seriously consider getting some more.


That's a pretty hilarious interview. Even while the lips of Chanos seemed to be predicting victory, there seemed to be an underlying fear that he was wrong. I do think as time goes on he's maybe becoming a little more humble and educated. He also didn't seem too confident that his Tesla activities to date had broken even. I can see a lie from a mile away and he's still underwater. That's why Tesla is his arch nemesis (because he's still underwater). There is a lot of personal pain bundled up inside.

The funny part was where he seemed surprised that the market was valuing Tesla not for its previous financial performance but for its future potential. As if that's unusual. Granted, companies with less potential are often valued more on expected next quarter profits but not companies like Tesla. I'm sure Chanos wishes Tesla was valued on expected profits next quarter but he of all people knows that companies with great prospects looking forward are always valued on the potential of those prospects and the likelihood of achieving them. I've been a market participant for a long time and, while I think Tesla is fairly valued between $250 and $325, that's only because Tesla has outsized prospects with a reasonable chance of achieving them. But for Chanos to act surprised that Tesla is valued on future prospects is ridiculous!


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Shanghai GF3 has broken ground! Hopefully this gives TSLA a huge uptick soon.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1054009637320634370


----------



## Samsaggace (Jul 27, 2018)

Q3 financial results tomorrow at 3:30 pm EST
http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/n...ces-date-third-quarter-2018-financial-results
Hoping it will be good news for $TSLA stocks!


----------



## Jayc (May 19, 2016)

It does not help that Nasdaq tech stock are in decline at the prospect of trade war.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Jayc said:


> It does not help that Nasdaq tech stock are in decline at the prospect of trade war.


But Tesla broke ground on a new factory in China, so they'll bypass a possible trade war with China affecting Tesla prices once completed.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Randy Carlson has a great article on Seeking Alpha:

*Tesla, Universe And Everything?*
Summary

Times are changing. Model 3 is shipping. The Fed is applying brakes to our hot economy. US elections are less than a month away.
S-Curve disruption of transport from fossil fuel to electricity is clearly underway. Legacy carmakers are facing sales channel problems for coming electric cars while scrambling for enough BEV batteries.
Until cobalt in batteries is reduced or eliminated, large legacy carmakers are stuck with ICE + BEV coexistence strategies making effective Tesla competition difficult and leaving Tesla growing market share.
If Tesla's Q3 results are even close to profitability, the company will have access to any capital it needs while significant legacy competition is more than five years away.


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

There's an entertaining quote in a CNBC article about a short seller fund manager (for two plus years) that recently turned long:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/sho...mind-tesla-is-destroying-the-competition.html



> "Citron is long Tesla as the Model 3 is a proven hit and many of the TSLA warning signs have proven not to be significant," said Left in a blog post Tuesday. "Plain and simple - Tesla is destroying the competition."
> "TSLA is not just pulling customers from BMW and Mercedes but also from Toyota and Honda. Like a magic trick, while everyone is focused on Elon smoking weed, he is quietly smoking the whole automotive industry," the short seller added.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

What a pleasant surprise seeing TSLA up 6% on a down market AND that it’s partly due to a former bear turned bull. Is the tide finally turning?


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Is the tide finally turning?


Yes, the tide is officially flooding again. Unfortunately, my tide chart doesn't have a prediction for the next high tide.


----------



## Samsaggace (Jul 27, 2018)

Almost up 10% now ! That’s huge in a deflated market !
Hoping that it’s only anticipating tomorrow Q3 financial results announcement...


----------



## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

Odd little article on Andrew Left's switch to Bullish on TSLA. Focusing on the quote " "Tesla is destroying the competition," and dominating the small luxury performance market. The article starts out by going on about how Tesla is not dominating anything. Or if they are it's a tiny market.

But at the end a really interesting quote. A 360 turn from the beginning of the article. Almost like the author actually gets what Tesla is doing but needed to be negative in the first couple of paragraphs so a negative headline could be written.
"
Musk doesn't want to dominate: with a billion internal-combustion cars to replace worldwide with electric vehicles, Tesla needs lots of help.
It would be nice if somebody on Wall Street could figure out this middle ground and support Tesla for doing right by its customers,"

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-investor-andrew-left-may-be-making-huge-mistake-2018-10


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

@gravityrydr said:


> Odd little article on Andrew Left's switch to Bullish on TSLA. Focusing on the quote " "Tesla is destroying the competition," and dominating the small luxury performance market. The article starts out by going on about how Tesla is not dominating anything. Or if they are it's a tiny market.
> 
> But at the end a really interesting quote. A 360 turn from the beginning of the article. Almost like the author actually gets what Tesla is doing but needed to be negative in the first couple of paragraphs so a negative headline could be written.
> "
> ...


Now that Tesla's proving the viability and desirability of LiOn EVs the rest of the market ought to jump into this enormous opportunity. It would be suicide not to. (Legacy automakers will have to "chew off their own leg" in order to compete.) So glad that Tesla's in total domination for all the world to see! Wait till the floodgates open in China, in Europe, in Australia...

Today has been a good day. KA-CHING KA-CHIIINNNGGG!!!


----------



## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

Someone must have really been desperate to spit out a FUD headline today while they could (which was measured in minutes). Ridiculous...
(Disclosure, didn't click...)


----------



## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

Lovesword said:


> Someone must have really been desperate to spit out a FUD headline today while they could (which was measured in minutes). Ridiculous...
> (Disclosure, didn't click...)
> View attachment 16525


To be fair it was probably written ahead of time and has been true before every earnings call the last year and a half. Likely had it written last week.


----------



## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

@gravityrydr said:


> To be fair it was probably written ahead of time and has been true before every earnings call the last year and a half. Likely had it written last week.


That's fair. Like when I say that website can suck a donkey hang down. That's true now and for whenever I want it to be.


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

@gravityrydr said:


> To be fair it was probably written ahead of time and has been true before every earnings call the last year and a half. Likely had it written last week.


That's the first I've heard that a pre-meditated crime is fairer than one done in the heat of the moment!


----------



## Samsaggace (Jul 27, 2018)

Q3 results are marvelous!
Waiting for M3 in Europe as announced
"We expect to start taking orders in Europe and China for Model 3 before the end of this year."


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

$2.90 a share is out of this world. I don’t know of anyone predicting this for Q3. Let’s hope TSLA stays impervious to the negative macroeconomic environment for a long time.


----------



## Samsaggace (Jul 27, 2018)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> $2.90 a share is out of this world.


In Tesla papers it's $1.75~1.82 and it's also quite miraculous! 2.90 seems to come from Teslarati which has been written so fast.
Cashflow from ops at 1.39 b$ is also paving the way to financing new GFs !


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Samsaggace said:


> In Tesla papers it's $1.75~1.82 and it's also quite miraculous! 2.90 seems to come from Teslarati which has been written so fast.
> Cashflow from ops at 1.39 b$ is also paving the way to financing new GFs !


Here's what's stated in the financial report:

Net income per share attributable to common stockholders, diluted - non-GAAP: $2.90


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1055192098884902912


----------



## JWardell (May 9, 2016)

Awesome news overall for the day. Now waiting for stock to inexplicably do anything but skyrocket...these investors drive me nuts, especially with their idiotic questions.

Very disappointed HyperChange was not at the end of the call with the good questions.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Gali didn’t make the cut? That’s not good.


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> $2.90 a share is out of this world. I don't know of anyone predicting this for Q3.


I guess the TSLA short sellers have been on quite a wild ride as of late:
https://goo.gl/images/hNRkSE


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

PNWmisty said:


> I guess the TSLA short sellers have been on quite a wild ride as of late:
> https://goo.gl/images/hNRkSE


It will keep getting worse for them and this is only the beginning! If only we could see Lutz, Chanos and his minion what's-her-face (Lopez?) now. Imagine the short squeeze if they did a Citron 180?


----------



## Samsaggace (Jul 27, 2018)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Net income per share attributable to common stockholders, diluted - non-GAAP: $2.90


You're right! Sorry for the disturbance... I only take into account GAAP figures for all US companies (IFRS in all other countries).


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Samsaggace said:


> You're right! Sorry for the disturbance... I only take into account GAAP figures for all US companies (IFRS in all other countries).


No worries. I get lost in all those facts and figures myself. I'm just so ecstatic that Tesla's earnings blew everyone's estimates out of the water, even the most optimistic ones, and that an earlier announcement caught the shorts off guard giving them no chance for a counterattack. Curious to see what other FUD they'll come up with to try to ease the imminent burn. How bad it must feel to be in the Dark Side nowadays!


----------



## Jayc (May 19, 2016)

Congratulations Tesla, I am proud to be a part of history on this occasion as someone who reserved a Model 3.

Can't wait to see the plight of Jim Chanos and media FUD puppets like Linette Lopez. Usually, I wouldn't bother with this type of negativity but after having seen and experienced first-hand the beating Tesla gets, this feels very personal.


----------



## Love (Sep 13, 2017)

I got a text from a friend, and fellow M3OC member/Model 3 owner @thredge, with this news as I was walking into a bank after work... wasn't expecting the news until later in the day so I was surprised. All I could do was laugh - in my text reply, and even out loud (which garnered some odd looks from the bank teller).

When I got home and sat down on the couch with a little more time to absorb and reflect, I just sat there... feelings of happiness, relief, vindication. It feels like a big victory in an ongoing war... one that has the decks stacked against Tesla (I include us when I use the name Tesla here). It felt good. I wanted to shout. I wanted to get in the face of the shorts, of those that post these negative articles filled with lies and FUD.

It lasted a few minutes and then I composed my thoughts and realized that this war isn't over, not by a long shot. We won this one, but the massive amount of money on the other side aren't going to all 180° at the same time. I expect the negativity to ramp up now. Attacks will come from everywhere..."not sustainable", "NIO is better", "Elon's tweets", etc.

Let's see what comes out now. Already see one "article" headline:
"Tesla Reports a $312M Profit While Still Fixing Model 3 Delivery Issues" (Not even going to link it, don't give them the clicks)
Couldn't just have the positive about Tesla, it had to have a negative in there... and that's just the TITLE.

Enjoy our victory, everyone with Tesla. Now let's get back to it.


----------



## JWardell (May 9, 2016)

Of course those investors are still saying Sell Sell Sell! It's just a spike! 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/25/heres-what-wall-street-analysts-had-to-say-about-tesla-earnings.html


----------



## Jayc (May 19, 2016)

JWardell said:


> Of course those investors are still saying Sell Sell Sell! It's just a spike!
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/25/heres-what-wall-street-analysts-had-to-say-about-tesla-earnings.html


And they continue to call themselves experts and analysts. In any other industry they will have been relegated to room cleaning or something like that.

I was going to say how could CNBC be so dumb as to publish such articles but then remembered they have this regular show where Mr Bob Lutz comes on and repeats his prediction that Tesla is doomed and will be bankrupt tomorrow.

Where do they find these characters anyway ? And to think this guy once held a responsible position at GM - now we know why the legacy bunch is clueless.


----------



## Gavyne (Jul 7, 2018)

And to add to the good news:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1055408978430058497
Talk about MR Model 3 demand, no wonder they raised the price.


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

There is another absolutely ridiculous article in Business Insider. They are attempting to come up with a new short thesis now that all the old ones have imploded. The funny thing is, this comes from a publication called "_Business_ Insider". They should know better. Here is an excerpt that follows discussion of their record-breaking cash flows (don't bother clicking on the actual article, they could use less clicks, not more):



> The only potentially awkward issue raised by this development is that Tesla is clearly acting like a micro-monopoly.
> 
> The electric-vehicle market is tiny - only about 1% of global sales - and Tesla makes up most of it. The company has been using its pricing power to satisfy its capital needs, and, lacking any meaningful competition, there isn't much that consumers can do about it.


Anyone in business knows there is nothing wrong with having a monopoly - as long as that monopoly was achieved without nefarious anti-competitive behavior. In fact, in a capitalistic system, the best possible outcome is to have a bonafide monopoly with no significant competition. And we know Tesla achieved their near monopoly status by technological innovation. They even offer others free use of their patented technologies. Tesla WANTS more competition, their stated goal is to jumpstart the electric vehicle revolution and get the other manufacturers off their collective asses. So it's really pretty hilarious for Business Insider to claim their "micro-monopoly" status is "awkward" and that they have strong ability to price their products as they see fit and "there isn't much that consumers can do about it".

That's not "awkward", that's every business owners goal! To have a product so much better than the competition that you can charge a premium for it and still sell them by the bucket load. And I bet you can find a bunch of previous BI articles that claim EV's need to be priced competitively with their ICE counterparts in order to sell and the economics of batteries make EV's an unrealistic solution.

Even though this article is conciliatory in its tone (read eating crow), I fail to see how this can pass the standards of a publication that portends to be business savvy. And why do they hyphenate "electric vehicle"? Would they put a hyphen in "gasoline vehicle"?


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Jayc said:


> And they continue to call themselves experts and analysts. In any other industry they will have been relegated to room cleaning or something like that.
> 
> I was going to say how could CNBC be do dumb as to publish such articles but then just recalled how they have this regular show where Mr Bob Lutz comes on and repeats his prediction that Tesla is doomed and will be bankrupt tomorrow.
> 
> Where do they find these characters anyway ? And to think this guy once held a responsible position at GM - now we know why the legacy bunch is clueless.


There's propaganda behind it, aka they're being paid to do what they do. I wouldn't call them stupid.

Note that legacy automakers and the oil industry provide these media channels millions of dollars in ad revenue. It's a decades old symbiotic relationship trying to justify its own existence. There's interest in both parties to bringing companies like Tesla down, which have a direct negative impact on their profitability.


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

Jayc said:


> And they continue to call themselves experts and analysts. In any other industry they will have been relegated to room cleaning or something like that.
> 
> I was going to say how could CNBC be do dumb as to publish such articles but then just recalled how they have this regular show where Mr Bob Lutz comes on and repeats his prediction that Tesla is doomed and will be bankrupt tomorrow.


I resent the smear on the fine people who clean my hotel room!


----------



## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

PNWmisty said:


> That's the first I've heard that a pre-meditated crime is fairer than one done in the heat of the moment!


Just lazy reporting.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

PNWmisty said:


> There is another absolutely ridiculous article in Business Insider. They are attempting to come up with a new short thesis now that all the old ones have imploded. The funny thing is, this comes from a publication called "_Business_ Insider". They should know better. Here is an excerpt that follows discussion of their record-breaking cash flows (don't bother clicking on the actual article, they could use less clicks, not more):
> 
> Anyone in business knows there is nothing wrong with having a monopoly - as long as that monopoly was achieved without nefarious anti-competitive behavior. In fact, in a capitalistic system, the best possible outcome is to have a bonafide monopoly with no significant competition. And we know Tesla achieved their near monopoly status by technological innovation. They even offer others free use of their patented technologies. Tesla WANTS more competition, their stated goal is to jumpstart the electric vehicle revolution and get the other manufacturers off their collective asses. So it's really pretty hilarious for Business Insider to claim their "micro-monopoly" status is "awkward" and that they have strong ability to price their products as they see fit and "there isn't much that consumers can do about it".
> 
> ...


The thesis of "1% EV market" is all wrong. The market consists of ALL vehicles including fossil fuel vehicles. They're simply ignoring the fact that the overall sedan market is already undergoing major disruption with the Model 3, which is on track to beat the #1 Toyota Camry next year! And Tesla has its sights on the Ford F-150 with its own pickup truck which is going to be next level. I mean, whoever buys into this madness is biased, ignorant, stupid or all of the above. In the next few years such useless noise as this would all be forgotten, just like Elon's smoking weed and pedo tweets.


----------



## Samsaggace (Jul 27, 2018)

All those pseudo-experts are obliged to react as they completely missed the target! So they argue that the target was badly positioned. They cannot even think that they were unable to shoot accurately with their old rifle!
When a new technology is so disruptive it’s totally impossible to derive your estimates from the past figures. You are obliged to reconsider the full picture.
For example it was almost impossible to provide good Q3 estimates if you only used previous quarterly results.
On top of that, it’s not only the technology which is disruptive, it’s the full car manufacturing business! No other company is able to copy Tesla cars. They have an existing production tool. To reproduce Tesla car manufacturing they should build new factories like GFs.
That’s why the monopoly will not be broken in the near future!


----------



## Craig Bennett (Apr 6, 2016)

JWardell said:


> Of course those investors are still saying Sell Sell Sell! It's just a spike!
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/25/heres-what-wall-street-analysts-had-to-say-about-tesla-earnings.html


If you look at the prognostication record for most of these "analysts" over time their record is about as good as a dartboard. Their job is to entertain and draw in viewers. What draws in viewers? Certainly NOT good news.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Samsaggace said:


> All those pseudo-experts are obliged to react as they completely missed the target! So they argue that the target was badly positioned. They cannot even think that they were unable to shoot accurately with their old rifle!
> When a new technology is so disruptive it's totally impossible to derive your estimates from the past figures. You are obliged to reconsider the full picture.
> For example it was almost impossible to provide good Q3 estimates if you only used previous quarterly results.
> On top of that, it's not only the technology which is disruptive, it's the full car manufacturing business! No other company is able to copy Tesla cars. They have an existing production tool. To reproduce Tesla car manufacturing they should build new factories like GFs.
> That's why the monopoly will not be broken in the near future!


This calls for a celebration with some Teslaquila!


----------



## Jayc (May 19, 2016)

Samsaggace said:


> All those pseudo-experts are obliged to react as they completely missed the target! So they argue that the target was badly positioned. They cannot even think that they were unable to shoot accurately with their old rifle!
> When a new technology is so disruptive it's totally impossible to derive your estimates from the past figures. You are obliged to reconsider the full picture.
> For example it was almost impossible to provide good Q3 estimates if you only used previous quarterly results.
> On top of that, it's not only the technology which is disruptive, it's the full car manufacturing business! No other company is able to copy Tesla cars. They have an existing production tool. To reproduce Tesla car manufacturing they should build new factories like GFs.
> That's why the monopoly will not be broken in the near future!


I agree completely.

And if you read the explanation given by the experts who continue to classify TSLA with a sell rating, almost all seem to suggest that they are worried about competition coming from legacy automakers. But where is it, where is the competition? Who is going to be producing EVs in the next few years to compete with MS, MX and M3 ?

The same analysts give so much weight to fine details of the economics of EV production at Tesla, surely they cannot be referring to a few concept cars shown by other manufacturers at auto shows ? In the production ready group, if we take iPace, eTron, Kona, and the likes, have they bothered to do a fine toothcomb analysis of their long term viability. This is absolute nonsense and double standards at its best.

Ron Baron nicely sums it up in the interview he did recently. He asks how easy is it going to be for the legacy automakers who continue burn vast sums of money to produce their ICE motors, suddenly come up with the funds to throw at producing batteries and EV drivetrains when the return is several years ahead. He predicts that Tesla is going to be the leader and he doesn't think many others will survive this change from ICE to EV. I think he is spot on.


----------



## Nikola (Apr 4, 2016)

Jayc said:


> Ron Baron... predicts that Tesla is going to be the leader and he doesn't think many others will survive this change from ICE to EV. I think he is spot on.


Yes, think about the revolution from film to digital cameras. The first digital cameras were slow, low-res, and expensive. Around 1999-2000, nearly every photographer I spoke to told me they were going to stick with their film equipment because they had a big investment in it and film was better. Digital, in their view, was a ridiculous toy that could never possibly compete with a large-format 4x5 negative.

By 2006 they'd all tossed their film cameras and switched to digital because it was so obviously superior. Film is a niche market now. When people around the world reach for a camera, most pull out their Apple or Samsung phone.

What happened? Digital technology got better and once people tried it, they realized that film was inconvenient, expensive, slow, harder to use, and flawed in many other ways they'd never thought of before. And digital kept getting better every year.

Same thing is happening right now with ICE versus EV. I tell people "just drive it" and then suddenly the objections to EVs go away. They get a lot more appreciation from a 10-minute test drive than from a dozen pages of Disqus arguments and misleading news articles. (So keep inviting people to drive your car!)

It was unthinkable at one time that Kodak and Polaroid would lose their leadership in film and cameras. Just like it's unthinkable now that Ford, Chrysler, Mitsubishi, and others who aren't investing appropriately in EV tech might one day be losers and disappear. But it's going to happen.


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

In breaking news, the highly esteemed (not) Wall Street Journal reported that "it hasn’t been previously reported that... the criminal securities-fraud probe is intensifying."

The funny thing is, it STILL hasn't been reported that the criminal securities fraud probe is intensifying. This is the worst kind of yellow journalism. Who reports on what HASN'T been previously reported when it still hasn't been reported?

I can say, "It hasn't been previously reported that Elon Musk had sex with three 13-year-old girls in 2016". Yes, it's true that hasn't been previously reported, but it doesn't mean he DID!


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

Nikola said:


> Yes, think about the revolution from film to digital cameras. The first digital cameras were slow, low-res, and expensive. Around 1999-2000, nearly every photographer I spoke to told me they were going to stick with their film equipment because they had a big investment in it and film was better."


Exactly, as an amateur photo enthusiast, I had a heated argument with a professional photographer around that time that DSLR's were already better for most things than film. She scoffed at me, told me I didn't know what I was talking about, that she had been earning her entire living for over 15 years as a professional photographer and that it's an "art form" and digital would NEVER have a serious place. She would never make the switch because it would never be better than film.

When I ran into her 4 years later I asked her how the film photography was going. She sheepishly admitted she hadn't shot film for over 2 years. Not even once. All digital because it was better. My, how fast things change!



> It was unthinkable at one time that Kodak and Polaroid would lose their leadership in film and cameras. Just like it's unthinkable now that Ford, Chrysler, Mitsubishi, and others who aren't investing appropriately in EV tech might one day be losers and disappear. But it's going to happen.


Interestingly enough, Kodak invented the digital camera! But they didn't think it was the way forward until it was too late. It just shows the "experts" are "experts" only as far as in what they have already done. Tesla does not have a guaranteed position in EV's looking 5-6 years out.


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

Who would you trust more, an "analyst" for a brokerage company who would be lucky to worth $1 million or Larry Ellison who's estimated worth is a cool $59 Billion and whose second largest investment is in Tesla? You don't become a billionaire by throwing your money away. I learned a long time ago that you make more money doing the _opposite_ of what most analysts say. A couple of good quotes in this CNBC article:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/ora...on-discloses-big-personal-stake-in-tesla.html


----------



## JWardell (May 9, 2016)

Nikola said:


> Yes, think about the revolution from film to digital cameras. The first digital cameras were slow, low-res, and expensive. Around 1999-2000, nearly every photographer I spoke to told me they were going to stick with their film equipment because they had a big investment in it and film was better. Digital, in their view, was a ridiculous toy that could never possibly compete with a large-format 4x5 negative.
> 
> By 2006 they'd all tossed their film cameras and switched to digital because it was so obviously superior. Film is a niche market now. When people around the world reach for a camera, most pull out their Apple or Samsung phone.
> 
> ...


The parallel of digital vs film is perfect! 
I was an early adopter there too, bought my first digital camera in 1999 and DSLR in 2002 when I could finally (not really) afford one...just like now!


----------



## Digital man (Mar 21, 2017)

Nothing (God excluded), not even our beloved FBI or the mental ******** shorts are going to stop Tesla from becoming one of the most formidable car companies in the world.
Citroen Research, finally conceded how wrong they were, and my congratulations to them for this week article from them! People are spending more money to be a part of the Tesla Revolution.


Gavyne said:


> And to add to the good news:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1055408978430058497
> Talk about MR Model 3 demand, no wonder they raised the price.


----------



## Digital man (Mar 21, 2017)

Lovesword said:


> That's fair. Like when I say that website can suck a donkey hang down. That's true now and for whenever I want it to be.


----------



## Scuffers (Jun 8, 2017)

With all this cr4p. you have to wonder what the SEC are actually doing?

ie. who is paying these morons?


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

Scuffers said:


> With all this cr4p. you have to wonder what the SEC are actually doing?
> 
> ie. who is paying these morons?


I think the Fall Street Journal article implied it was the FBI who is investigating fraud for releasing production targets that Tesla allegedly knew were not possible. Which is even crazier than if the SEC were doing the same thing.

IMO, the FBI resources would be better spent if they went down to Texas and investigated why the voting machines flip straight democratic ballots to republican. Apparently, this is a problem the election board has been aware of for a number of years but the company that makes the voting machines hasn't updated the software yet and calls it "voter error". That seems a little more fraudulent than a CEO aspiring to kick butt on production.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Jayc said:


> And they continue to call themselves experts and analysts. In any other industry they will have been relegated to room cleaning or something like that.
> 
> I was going to say how could CNBC be so dumb as to publish such articles but then remembered they have this regular show where Mr Bob Lutz comes on and repeats his prediction that Tesla is doomed and will be bankrupt tomorrow.
> 
> Where do they find these characters anyway ? And to think this guy once held a responsible position at GM - now we know why the legacy bunch is clueless.


I stand corrected. There are a whole bunch of stupid morons out there.


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

Mark Spiegel is a poor excuse for a human. The word "idiot" comes to mind. Now he's hanging his hat on the competition, the "Tesla Killers" as they like to imagine. First, it was the Bolt, then the iPace.

I get a lot of my investment ideas by using Google Trends, a really great tool. Here is a 12-month chart of the frequency of Google searches (comparing "Tesla Model 3", "Chevrolet Bolt" and "Jaguar iPace"). This is a good way to judge general interest in a product:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=/g/11c3x48pb7,/m/012n8qhh,"Jaguar ipace"

Note that one of the search terms is steadily growing, building momentum, while the other two search terms are gradually declining.

That said, I recently sold all my Tesla. $344 was a good price and I have (hopefully) better places to park it for now. I have little doubt that Tesla will continue to grow but I do see storm clouds on the near-term horizon. I've always said this one is hard to play and it may or may not be going higher in the short-term. But I'm mostly confident I'll be able to buy back for considerably less within a year. And I'm at a point where I want to reduce risk in my portfolio. I see a need to spend on Service Centers, Superchargers, warranty work, development and ramping of new products (and of course paying existing debt obligations) and I'm not sure profits from existing models can fund all that. Which means dilution. It's a tough business.


----------



## slasher016 (Sep 12, 2017)

PNWmisty said:


> Mark Spiegel is a poor excuse for a human. The word "idiot" comes to mind. Now he's hanging his hat on the competition, the "Tesla Killers" as they like to imagine. First, it was the Bolt, then the iPace.
> 
> I get a lot of my investment ideas by using Google Trends, a really great tool. Here is a 12-month chart of the frequency of Google searches (comparing "Tesla Model 3", "Chevrolet Bolt" and "Jaguar iPace"). This is a good way to judge general interest in a product:
> 
> ...


Yeah I'll be selling my TSLA fairly soon as well. Obviously I still feel very strongly about the company, but it's a very volatile stock and I like to buy it and sell it fairly frequently to take profits. There's always a dip (usually for a really stupid reason) and then I buy right back in.


----------



## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

Go for it dude.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4218568-many-bears-capitulate-even-reverse-course-added-tesla-short


----------



## Samsaggace (Jul 27, 2018)

Around $350 today! + $100 in one month!
It's rather difficult to predict the cieling level.
I am close to sell half.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

But I thought they were just burning cash? 

https://electrek.co/2018/11/13/tesla-battery-cells-improved/

Automakers now have the following choices to make:

Engage in their own cash burn in order to catch up to Tesla 
Join forces with Tesla
Go the way of the dinosaurs


----------



## Scuffers (Jun 8, 2017)

Problem is the GM likely can't finance that sort of cash burn, debatable if Ford can either, they are going to have to rely heavily on Samsung/LG/etc for their battery tech, and whilst it;s cheaper up-front, long term it's un-sustainable.

VAG have the cash to do this, but still have yet to actually commit, BMW are terrified, they known they don't have the cash reserves to compete, and Merc are just ignoring the problem.


----------



## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

Scuffers said:


> Problem is the GM likely can't finance that sort of cash burn, debatable if Ford can either, they are going to have to rely heavily on Samsung/LG/etc for their battery tech, and whilst it;s cheaper up-front, long term it's un-sustainable.
> 
> VAG have the cash to do this, but still have yet to actually commit, BMW are terrified, they known they don't have the cash reserves to compete, and Merc are just ignoring the problem.


VAG and BMW are getting a leg up from their government. 
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-germany-kickstart-eu-battery-making.html


----------



## Scuffers (Jun 8, 2017)

That on the face of it would be illegal under EU law (state subsidies) as well as WTO rules.

I wonder how the German government will try and spin that away?


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

@gravityrydr said:


> VAG and BMW are getting a leg up from their government.
> https://phys.org/news/2018-11-germany-kickstart-eu-battery-making.html


The article talks about an EU-wide effort, not a German-only effort.


----------



## Scuffers (Jun 8, 2017)

Still falls foul of WTO rules...


----------



## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

garsh said:


> The article talks about an EU-wide effort, not a German-only effort.


Ah. Missed the part about in cooperation with the EU. Read it too fast.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

It seems like the EU is now responding due to the Model 3’s disruption to car sales rather than to the dieselgate fiasco. What a shame they haven’t been more forward thinking and proactive. Better late than never, I guess. Good thing Tesla is around or we probably wouldn’t see this type of progress for another decade or two, or the next major climate disaster.


----------



## Scuffers (Jun 8, 2017)

You have to remember the whole push to go Diesel years ago was government pushed, based on lower CO2 output's

Just goes to show the effects of the climate change screeching usually pushes bad policies, we would have done better 20 years ago spending the development cash on lean-burn petrol engines as Ford and Honda wanted to, but now, they were pushed/forced to spend billions on dismal engine developments that not only pushed up costs for everybody but then lead to impossible standards being set and cheating to get round said regulations.

what this all shows is that governments need to FRO from anything to do with setting directions for technical developments, because every time they do, they screw up.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Does anyone know what's the news behind TSLA rising? Surely it can't be due to Peter Altmaier's comments, right?

https://electrek.co/2018/11/19/electric-car-half-sexy-tesla-german-automakers/amp/


----------



## PNWmisty (Aug 19, 2017)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Does anyone know what's the news behind TSLA rising? Surely it can't be due to Peter Altmaier's comments, right?
> 
> https://electrek.co/2018/11/19/electric-car-half-sexy-tesla-german-automakers/amp/


As usual, I wouldn't want to ascribe Tesla's movements to any one thing other than a general investor sentiment (which includes short sellers). Of course, his comments are part of that sentiment. Space-X successes also play a positive role. Orders beginning in China, solar gearing up, there is a lot of generally good news/sentiments and a lack of scandals, Tesla crashes, etc.

Trying to predict the day-to-day and month-to-month movements of TSLA in advance is pretty difficult except for the fact that it's been largely range bound for a few years. But that is no guarantee it will remain rangebound in the future, we don't know what the future news is yet. It could leave the range to the upside (more likely) or even to the downside depending on what plays out. OK, now I did it. I stated the obvious.


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

PNWmisty said:


> As usual, I wouldn't want to ascribe Tesla's movements to any one thing other than a general investor sentiment (which includes short sellers). Of course, his comments are part of that sentiment. Space-X successes also play a positive role. Orders beginning in China, solar gearing up, there is a lot of generally good news/sentiments and a lack of scandals, Tesla crashes, etc.
> 
> Trying to predict the day-to-day and month-to-month movements of TSLA in advance is pretty difficult except for the fact that it's been largely range bound for a few years. But that is no guarantee it will remain rangebound in the future, we don't know what the future news is yet. It could leave the range to the upside (more likely) or even to the downside depending on what plays out. OK, now I did it. I stated the obvious.


It's been difficult to read into the stock price lately. On some days there was astounding good news and the price barely moved. On other days a small issue or rumor caused the price to plummet. Today we have a bad macroeconomic environment, bad news from Nissan, and seemingly lack of breakthrough news and yet a spike in TSLA this morning.

I ended up going with my gut and executed a stop loss sell at over $363/share for a significant portion of my investment. I'm playing almost purely by the numbers at this point, which is not really how I want to strategize, but the whole market looks like it's begun a downward spiral. Why TSLA behaved the opposite this morning is beyond me. I expect another huge dip in the short term due to the macroeconomic environment.

Was another short interest report just released?


----------



## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Short interest report was released: # of shares dropped by 1.1 million the past two weeks. Not as bullish as the prior two weeks which had a drop of over 4 million. We might not get the short squeeze as soon as one could hope.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> Short interest report was released: # of shares dropped by 1.1 million the past two weeks. Not as bullish as the prior two weeks which had a drop of over 4 million. We might not get the short squeeze as soon as one could hope.


It looks like shorts have started to slowly trim their positions over the past month. They'll keep up the FUD train for as long as possible to keep the stock price down so that they can continue exiting their positions, and thus avoid a squeeze (if possible).


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1064637407918768128


----------



## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

Finally was able to play on dumb rumor rise and buy on the dip. Early morning the long-running rumor of Apple buying Tesla got some play on Marketwatch. Sold near peak and then when traders realized it was a dumb rumor, reinvested gains with more stock. If only I could do this more often.










__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1069954568346312705


----------



## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> This calls for a celebration with some Teslaquila!


Whelp, it's here!

https://shop.tesla.com/product/tesla-tequila?sku=1617866-00-A


----------

