# TSLA Analyst Coverage - 2020 Q1



## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

new year, new analysts articles on Tesla 

this article was actually published last week, but predictions for 2020
https://marketrealist.com/2019/12/how-is-tesla-stock-positioned-for-2020/


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Ok, this is weird. I actually agree with all but one of Montana Skeptic's predictions for 2020. Of course, my interpretations are a bit different than his.

My Fearless Forecasts For Tesla's 2020

*1. Any Q4 profit won't be sufficient to rescue 2019.*
Here, he just means that Tesla will still have an overall "loss" for 2019. Yep, they will. No big deal. They're shoveling revenue into expansion plans, not trying to profit short-term.

*2. Tesla won't run out of cash any time soon.*
Duh. Three quarters of consecutive profits finally have this short seeing the light.

*3. Model S and X sales will continue to decline everywhere unless Tesla (further) cuts prices.*
Elon (and Tesla) would probably prefer to stop making S & X, and instead dedicate the factory space to producing much larger numbers of 3s and Ys instead. Tesla keeps selling the S & X partly for nostalgia, and partly due to their status as halo cars in the lineup. But that's not where Tesla's profit is.

*4. Without price cuts, Model 3 sales will decline in the U.S. and Europe.*
My reasons for believing this are completely different from Skeptic's. Tesla will start selling the Y in 2020, and that will cannibalize a large portion of potential 3 sales. Nobody else's vehicle sales will be eating into Model 3 sales.

*5. The 2020 earnings consensus will be revised downward, and Tesla will again lose money.*
Again, my reasons for believing this are completely different from Skeptic's. Tesla will be expanding GF3, start building GF4, bring production lines for Model Y online, bring production lines for Cybertruck online, expand Solar Roof production, etc. That's all very capital-intensive stuff. Again, Tesla wants to expand quickly, not profit short-term.

*6. There will be no FSD (though that doesn't mean revenue won't be recognized).*
We will not see a fully-released, don't-have-to-babysit-it FSD in 2020. We'll get closer, but it will still require close human supervision at all times.

*7. Tesla's solar roof tiles will remain a niche product in trial mode.*
Tesla is going to have a tough time ramping this up successfully. I think they still have a few stumbles to overcome in 2020.

*8. We won't see the Semi or Roadster 2*
Model Y and Cybertruck will be the high-volume money-makers, and Tesla will concentrate on getting those to production ASAP. Semi and Roadster timelines will continue to get pushed back as a result.

*9. Once manufactured, if ever manufactured, the Cybertruck will cost more and do less than promised.*
I completely disagree with this one. I do believe that we'll see the RWD $40k version of the truck go the way of the 40kWh Model S and the SR Model 3 - Tesla won't be offering it for very long. But Tesla has never disappointed on meeting pre-announced specifications. The Cybertruck will do _more_ than promised.


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

My forecast:
1. Tesla will aggressively ramp up China capacity (already burst-producing 3K/wk and making battery modules is early proof)
2. Tesla will begin construction of Germany
3. Tesla will continue to enjoy easy access to cheap capital
4. Tesla will continue to sell every unit they can make
5. Autopilot will continue to improve, and people will continue to buy it
6. People will continue to be highly satisfied with their cars
7. 2020 will NOT be the year that competition swamps Tesla, it will be the year people fully realize how far behind trad automakers lag Tesla
8. Mainstream press coverage will accelerate its recently-begun shift away from disaster stories to more positive coverage
9. Trad automakers will unabashedly adopt design elements from Tesla that were criticized when they were originally introduced
10. Flight from short positions will accelerate; Tesla will disappear from the lists of top-shorted stocks
11. FUD from short sellers about subsidies, fraud, quality issues, demand, exec turnover will lose all punch
12. The most prominent critics of Tesla (analysts, journalists, commentators, short sellers) will quietly turn their attention elsewhere

*Tesla Fudsters in 2020:*


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

pretty impressive, for a Silicone Valley startup



Barrons said:


> Tesla's current market capitalization is approaching $83 billion and that exceeds the peak Ford Motor (F) market value of about $81 billion set in 1999, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Tesla's market value is also larger than prebankruptcy General Motors (GM), current General Motors, and pre- Daimler (DAI.Germany) Chrysler or Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU). (Chrysler and Daimler merged in 1998.)


https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-most-valuable-car-company-51578415861


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Video (can't embed directly) discussing the latest raise in the stock.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/01/07/tesla-this-is-the-way-to-buy-and-hold-investing-pro-says.html


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

Looking for a source for Tesla SHORT ratio, I surveyed Ihor Dusaniwsky on twitter.

I'm puzzled by "Ihor Dusaniwsky" who I understand is part of S3. I like the metrics he shares:








Just I'm under the impression S3 is also one of the more active Tesla shorting companies. Did I get that wrong?

His recent tweets advertise "SHORTSIGHT SCREENER PLANS" which appears to be an application for those who want to SHORT any stock. At just under $40/month, it is too expensive for me. But it might be interesting if something cheaper for just Tesla data were available.

My interest is in the ratio of Tesla SHORT to total Tesla stock. My hypothesis is once the percentage of SHORT stock reaches ~10% or less, it will become 'noise' relative the strengths of Tesla. The wild card is Elon's holdings, ~25% (?), which should be considered 'frozen.' Compared to the dynamic stock pool, the SHORT percentage is higher than the 20% Ihor shows against all stock.

Bob Wilson


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## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

Short info is release every 2 weeks by NASDAQ and available online. At year end there were 26 Million shares sold short and with recent volume it would take 2.3 days to cover. This is down significantly from prior weeks where it "normally" ranges from 4 to 6 days to cover. So many of the shorts have given in...


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

I had seen the NASDAQ data but the two week lag bothers me. So I’m using the daily trade numbers as my guide. But if he is using S3 metrics, it can’t get more ‘real-time’.

Bob Wilson


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Who would have thought that CNBC would go for the clickbait title, while Bloomberg goes with the factual one?

*Tesla blasts customer complaints of sudden unintended acceleration as 'completely false'*
Lora Kolodny co-wrote the CNBC article. It assumes that these are actual customer complaints, even though they were submitted for review by a non-Tesla-owner, TSLA-short-seller.

*Tesla Slams Acceleration Petition Brought by 'Short Seller'*
H/T to Dana Hull for the well-chosen, accurate title. 

Both authors have historically been leaning negative when writing about Tesla.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

*Tesla Model 3 Sales Were Almost Triple The #2 Electric Vehicle's Global Sales In 2019*

Wow. Over four times the sales of the next-most popular EV sold outside of China, the Nissan Leaf.


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## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

Wow, the Bolt isn’t even top 5? Interesting that 3 of the options are (apparently) Chinese. Underscores how critical it is that they have the GF in China and pump out cars to stay competitive there. Also eye opening that the M3 in the top spot sold about as many as 2-5 combined.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Who are you calling _Very Bearish_?


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

I'm seeing claims attributed to Bloomberg:

"_Tesla has been sued again by owners who says their vehicles suddenly accelerated by themselves, leading to crashes. Seven owners are seeking class-action status and cited Tesla's Model S, Model 3 and Model X in the complaint filed Monday._"​
FUD about Tesla is so common so any such claim needs independent confirmation. I won't pay Bloomberg to let them 'blow smoke' up my bum-hole because they have been wrong so many times. Has anyone seen an independent, credible source about this claimed suit?

Bob Wilson


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

bwilson4web said:


> Has anyone seen an independent, credible source about this claimed suit?


A suit exists, but it was brought by a TSLA short seller, not by Tesla owners.



garsh said:


> Who would have thought that CNBC would go for the clickbait title, while Bloomberg goes with the factual one?
> 
> *Tesla blasts customer complaints of sudden unintended acceleration as 'completely false'*
> Lora Kolodny co-wrote the CNBC article. It assumes that these are actual customer complaints, even though they were submitted for review by a non-Tesla-owner, TSLA-short-seller.
> ...


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

You can only read the articles if you have a subscription. But I had to post this because I found them funny. 

5 days ago: Tesla Tops Volkswagen to Become Second-Most-Valuable Auto Maker
3 days ago: No, Tesla Isn't Bigger Than Volkswagen


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Has somebody seen my tiny, little violin? I wish to play it.

*Tesla Mich. win may hurt franchised dealerships*


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## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

garsh said:


> You can only read the articles if you have a subscription. But I had to post this because I found them funny.
> 
> 5 days ago: Tesla Tops Volkswagen to Become Second-Most-Valuable Auto Maker
> 3 days ago: No, Tesla Isn't Bigger Than Volkswagen


Yeah, reality stayed the same and their minds changed. 

Market cap vs. enterprise value is an interesting comparison in this industry. First, definitions.

*About Enterprise Value*
Click "Learn More" below to see how YCharts calculates Enterprise Value.

Enterprise Value (EV) is a valuation metric alternative to traditional market capitalization that reflects the market value of an entire business. Like market cap, EV is a measure of what the market believes a company is worth. Enterprise value captures the cost of an entire business, including debt and equity. It is a sum of claims of all preferred shareholders, debt holders, security holders, common equity holders, and minority shareholders - unlike market cap, which only captures the total value of common equity securities.

EV is considered the theoretical purchase ("takeover") price of a business because a purchaser would take on the company's debt, while pocketing the company's cash and gaining a right to all of the company's future earnings.
Learn More
__________________

The chart below is from here: https://www.gurufocus.com/term/ev/NAS:TSLA/Enterprise-Value--M/Tesla

Those legacy automakers are carrying *a lot more debt* than Tesla apparently. And an overwhelming debt load was supposed to bring down the entire company just a few months ago, it seemed. Hmmm. What a difference a year makes.

Note: I'm not sure I believe that EV for Honda--that's like a 234:1 debt-to-equity ratio, and it skews the entire graphic. And I don't know how Ferrari and Audi manage to have negative net debt. ?


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Jim Cramer: Fossil Fuels are the new tobacco. they are the opposite of Tesla. The kids don't want to buy stock in tobacco.


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## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

MelindaV said:


> Jim Cramer: Fossil Fuels are the new tobacco. they are the opposite of Tesla. The kids don't want to buy stock in tobacco.


I agree but...even for many years after tobacco was left for dead as an investment, the stocks still made money:
https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/fbbc98b0-584c-463f-93a9-76606eda3c8a


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Some concrete evidence of the trend: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/14/business/dealbook/larry-fink-blackrock-climate-change.html


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

LOL!

This is actually a decent article, but the editor must have insisted on giving it a click-bait title to get the clicks, yo.

*Tesla Is Going to Offer a Crossover Model Y. It Might Not Be Great News.*


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

garsh said:


> LOL!
> This is actually a decent article, but the editor must have insisted on giving it a click-bait title to get the clicks, yo.


"Currently, 20% of Model 3 trade-ins in the U.S. are SUVs," wrote Ferragu in a recent research report. "We expect the launch of Model Y to cannibalize Model 3 sales by that order of magnitude."

Uh, wouldn't the 'order of magnitude' of 20% be zero?

Just sayin'.


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3csy7l1

It includes several minutes of Bob Lutz wandering around along with others who are clueless about the Tesla cars and the current state of the art. Of course we've seen such nonsense from the Tesla SHORT and "bears" before . . . and will in the future.

Bob Wilson


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## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

Bob Lutz should have retired from GM two bankruptcies ago.

IMHO.


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

Source: http://www.autoline.tv/journal/?page_id=27168

Montana Skeptic SeekingAlpha.com; David Welch, Bloomberg; Gary Vasilash, AD&P; John McElroy, Autoline.tv

LIVE April 2 @3:00 PM EST

They typically have both a "chat" stream and take phone calls. Looks to be a hoot since Tesla is likely to report the Q1 production numbers.

You can also submit questions or comments using: [email protected]

Bob Wilson


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

LIVE April [email protected] 3:00 PM EST, Autoline After Hours

Bob Galyen, Galyen Energy LLC; Anton Wahlman, SeekingAlpha.com;
Gary Vasilash, AD&P; John McElroy, Autoline.tv

Bob Galyen was a former executive for CATL, a huge Chinese battery maker. He also holds patents for filling lead acid batteries and an active battery network.
Anton Whalman is a notorious, Tesla, SHORT advocate.
Bob Galyen sounds interesting but I really have no interest in Whalman.

You can send questions ahead of time to: [email protected]

UPDATE:





3-5 years expected cost equity with ICE vehicles - Bob G.
$/kWh is 'rubber' due to a lot of externals including currency rates - Bob G.
energy density is the key to range - Bob G.
LiFePO{4} compared to NMC - Bob G.
historical 68-72% packing density now over 90% - Bob G.
cylindrical, prismatic, pouch are design philosophy - Bob G.
Five golden rules chart:
Safety (Anton W. loves to send flaming Tesla images)
Performance (*packing density*)
Life
Cost
Environment

Only one known battery electrocution, guy plugged in fuse block and touched terminals ... in China - Bob G.
*Performance* to merge in traffic and energy to get to hospital with wife in labor - Bob G.
Scale of battery manufacturing and effects on efficiency:
automation is > 99%, human hands don't touch ordinary cells - Bob G.
quality requires human inspection, a much smaller sampling - Bob G.

Centralize or multiple plants? - Anton W.
China requires fire egress every 60 m, the USA allows longer distances. - Bob G.
Too big, humans can not evacuate fast enough. - Bob G.
Physical separation between buildings. - Bob G.

Single site vs distributed across country:
One site delivery of raw materials to multiple buildings. - Bob G.
Minimize explosion as well as fire risks by a complex of buildings. - Bob G.
Localization plan: 45% comes local city; 65% from provence; 95% from country, and; 5% imported. - Bob G.

Advantages of Gigawatt sized plants versus distributed plants? - Anton W.
GM had 7 battery plants in N. America to support local plants. - Bob G.
Centralization is important to allocate efficient engineering support teams. - Bob G.
Colocate the module/pack assembly with the vehicle manufacture but decentralize the cells. - Bob G.

Module specs: light enough for human to carry, *~50 lbs*, yet not electrocute himself, *~60 VDC*. - Bob G.
Dr. Data Quiz @32:00 ... (_I won't spoil it, watch the video._) - Gary V.
How did American wind up at CATL. Ran into Dr. Robin Zong(sp?) of ATL and had dinner. Next day took a cell apart in front of 20 engineers. Robin asked him to come to China ... 7 1/2 years. The government supported CATL 100%, not with money but policy. Premier Lee(sp?) said, "Bob, we lose 1.7 million people per year due to respiratory failure. We don't want to lose any more. ..." - Bob G.
Worked with Paul MacCready of human powered flight fame, on the predecessor to the EV1. On the 30 mph loop, drove 183 mi in 6 hours, lead-acid batteries. - Bob G.
Built a truck, 11 years old, 27 plates per cell. The density of the current controlled the life. - Bob G.
2011 year Volt, no detected battery degradation with 20-50 miles range. - Anton W.
Depth of discharge is key to battery life. - Bob G.
People take better care of the EVs than Toyota expected with 1.6x plug-in. - Bob G.
Bolt had ~65% operational, SOC range (Anton W.) But it still had the gasoline engine backup (Bob G.)
Discussion of four electric airplanes and practical use for regional flying. - Bob G.
Also discussed electric ships. - Bob G.
China electric construction equipment needed for Himalayan tunnel. Petroleum fueled vehicles are a hazard. - Bob G.
(_NaatBatt.org, a for fee, $1,000/yr, professional society._ - Bob W.) - Bob G.
What about the long time it takes to go from idea to actual battery? - Anton W.
It took 42 years from the bench top to production batteries. (58:17 in video) - Bob G.
Solid-state batteries, are still in the early phase, decades to go. - Bob G

There are 24 SAE committees writing papers/standards. - Bob G.
Battery recycling in China has enough volume for recycling. The USA does not have enough volume. - Bob G.
In China the early EV busses are the feedstock for recycling. - Bob G.
Multiple layers of management in the battery pack and vehicle ... it is a system beyond just parts. - Bob G.
China had a social problem of people dying from pollution. We really need public policy. - Bob G.
The "NaatBatt.org" team is key to a successful policy. - Bob G.
What unique EV feature sells them? Gary V.
*Service.* - Bob G.
Much lower cost of ownership in the USA. - Bob G.

Torque, railroads are getting back into the game after "Green Goats" ... then six different reasons for fires. - Bob G.
It is subsidizes, incentives that drive EV sales. - Anton W.
TIGRESS, hydronium chemistry, H{3}O+ for sanitation without injury to skin. - Bob G.
Please understand this is a first pass, a draft of what I saw in the video. I liked it but you may want to speed it up in YouTube playback.

Bob Wilson


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