# Lets say.....4 million+ Teslas. How will updates get released?



## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

When Tesla gets to 4 million+ cars on the road.... how will updates roll out?

When Tesla doubles the number of cars they have on the road....will the time to receive an update double?


Does anyone know what the bottleneck is for getting software updates out to the fleet?

Or let me ask....Is there a bottleneck? Why doesn't/can't Tesla roll out an update to everyone at the same time?

I'm thinking it can't be a Tesla bandwidth problem. No way.

I'm averaging 5-10 days from initial rollout as indicated by TeslaFi. ( much longer than it used to take 2 years ago ).


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

They'll probably use a content network like Akamai to deliver them, same as Apple does.


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## iChris93 (Feb 3, 2017)

Garlan Garner said:


> Why doesn't/can't Tesla roll out an update to everyone at the same time?


I think they can, they choose not to because they test and go.


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## Needsdecaf (Dec 27, 2018)

iChris93 said:


> I think they can, they choose not to because they test and go.


Yeah, there's no reason they can't push out the update to the whole fleet at once. As @JasonF says above, look at the scale of an iOS or Android update. You're talking tens of millions of devices.

Tesla does it the way they do it because they are constantly making us all guinea pigs BETA testers. That's why you'll see version .1 of a software come out to a few people, followed by a few more on the next release, and then when they get it right, it goes out wide. And occasionally they make a massive mistake and get everyone off a release REALLY quickly.

If you're not a TeslaFi subscriber, you can still see their fleet's software info on their website.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

Needsdecaf said:


> Yeah, there's no reason they can't push out the update to the whole fleet at once. As @JasonF says above, look at the scale of an iOS or Android update. You're talking tens of millions of devices.
> 
> Tesla does it the way they do it because they are constantly making us all guinea pigs BETA testers. That's why you'll see version .1 of a software come out to a few people, followed by a few more on the next release, and then when they get it right, it goes out wide. And occasionally they make a massive mistake and get everyone off a release REALLY quickly.
> 
> If you're not a TeslaFi subscriber, you can still see their fleet's software info on their website.


So once Tesla reaches 5 million cars.....all 5 million will be testers?

BOY - its going to take months to get a software update out to everyone.

I used to consistently get updates 1 or 2 days out from the initial rollout. Now its about a week. I attribute this to the increased size of the fleet. As the fleet expands even further....? What do you think about that logic?


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## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

I'm not seeing evidence of this myself. Besides, a software distribution bottleneck is easily manageable by implementing a distributed delivery model, as @JasonF pointed out. Believe me, if Netflix can deliver 4K video content to millions of users around the world, Tesla can send out GB sized updates to 4 million (or 50 million!) vehicles on a periodic basis.

I just noticed that TeslaFi has some interesting new stats on their software version tracker including Days From Discovery To Install. Cool! I must say that the low numbers I am seeing there (I have to go back to 2020.12.x to see one longer than a week) almost seem unbelievable, as my impression is that I'm usually at the tail end of releases. I think what I am seeing, however, is that for a given major release (e.g. 2020.48.x) I may not get the initial release (2020.48.5 in this case, initially released 11/30), but once the 2020.48.10 update came out, I had it within 3 days. But my impression is that I didn't get 2020.48.x for 9 days since that's the timeframe from the first 2020.48 release until I got a 2020.48 release (and it seemed a lot longer than 9 days!)

If I repeat that analysis with 2020.44, even though I had 2020.44.10.1 the day it was first discovered, it was 30 days from 2020.44.3 until I got 2020.44.10.1.

Does Tesla roll out updates in this way because of a distribution bottleneck? Very doubtful. Rather, as @Needsdecaf just posted I think it's because they don't want (or need) to expose the entire fleet to new software all at once. Rather they probably just randomly pick a certain percentage of vehicles to receive the first iteration, and as confidence grows they gradually roll out updates to a wider audience. That leaves those of us who obsess about getting the latest update feeling like we are left behind, even though what is really happening is that with a larger fleet each month, the percentage of vehicles in that first wave of a given update can get smaller and still reach the same number of vehicles. Therefore more of us end up feeling that we're "late" getting a given update and the chances that we're on the "early" end are smaller.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

NOGA$4ME said:


> I'm not seeing evidence of this myself. Besides, a software distribution bottleneck is easily manageable by implementing a distributed delivery model, as @JasonF pointed out. Believe me, if Netflix can deliver 4K video content to millions of users around the world, Tesla can send out GB sized updates to 4 million (or 50 million!) vehicles on a periodic basis.
> 
> I just noticed that TeslaFi has some interesting new stats on their software version tracker including Days From Discovery To Install. Cool! I must say that the low numbers I am seeing there (I have to go back to 2020.12.x to see one longer than a week) almost seem unbelievable, as my impression is that I'm usually at the tail end of releases. I think what I am seeing, however, is that for a given major release (e.g. 2020.48.x) I may not get the initial release (2020.48.5 in this case, initially released 11/30), but once the 2020.48.10 update came out, I had it within 3 days. But my impression is that I didn't get 2020.48.x for 9 days since that's the timeframe from the first 2020.48 release until I got a 2020.48 release (and it seemed a lot longer than 9 days!)
> 
> ...


I agree with your final paragraph.

The larger the fleet - the slower the received update.

I wonder what timeframe would be considered "too long" of a wait time by Tesla.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Garlan Garner said:


> So once Tesla reaches 5 million cars.....all 5 million will be testers?


Just the subset who configure "Software Update Preference" to "Advanced".


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

garsh said:


> Just the subset who configure "Software Update Preference" to "Advanced".
> 
> View attachment 36379


Thanks...

Oh yeah. I've got that selected. ( I really think that's a pacifier - not effective at all ).

For the past 5 updates I've been slowly slipping from 64% to now over 79% of TeslaFi's received updates ( AP3.0) before I see a download.

Right now TeslaFi is 63% installed for AP3.0 ....so....2020.48.10 is probably going to surpass a week.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

I really wish there was someone that Tesla provided to the public to get the real truth about this. Every Customer service person gives me a different answer.

I'm not complaining about the extend-ing time frames..... its just an interesting thing to track.


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## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

Garlan Garner said:


> I agree with your final paragraph.
> 
> The larger the fleet - the slower the received update.


I didn't say that though. Or at least I didn't mean to.

I think if releases generally get released every 4 weeks (just using that as an example, although that does appear to be the case in 2020) there will still be a distribution over each 4 week interval of when each car in the fleet gets that release (think of an S-curve). And on average, a given vehicle will receive the update at the 50th percentile point (wherever that is within the 4 week interval).

I don't think the distribution curve has, or will, dramatically changed as the fleet has grown. What I think is that the curve probably has a fairly long, flat tail at the beginning and a sharp rise at the end, meaning the 50th percentile point is close to the end of the interval. Let's say that point is 3 weeks after the initial release, meaning on average you're going to be about 3 weeks behind the first published reports of a new release. If there has been a change at all, maybe the initial part of the curve is a bit flatter, so if you were to track the 10th percentile for example, that would shift out from say 4 days to 8 days, but there we are talking about the lucky 10% who got their release early, not the wider population.

Now if you are saying that your experience is that in the past you received updates more towards the early part of that curve, and did so consistently, then I would say that were either just lucky, or maybe your recollection is weighted towards certain releases that WERE rushed out because they contained an important fix.

To say that *the larger the fleet - the slower the received update* implies that as the fleet grows, either the release cycle will have to expand from 4 weeks to some higher number (because the release timeframes are larger), or that some people will skip major releases altogether. I haven't seen any evidence of either of these happening so far. I guess it's possible that that could change in the future, but my money is on things remaining more or less what they are today.


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

Garlan Garner said:


> When Tesla gets to 4 million+ cars on the road.... how will updates roll out?
> 
> When Tesla doubles the number of cars they have on the road....will the time to receive an update double?
> 
> ...


There's two answers to that one question. EVERY technology company with a large user base uses a CDN (content delivery network). They hold the "new updates" that Tesla would want to deliver to end users and our cars would be configured to talk to the closest one to our location (to speed up the download process). The second part to that is a "phased roll out". My company completes step one (published the new content to our CDN) and if it's a new platform we're testing we only route 10% of traffic to that platform to verify there's no serious bugs or issues we missed in QA and. If alls well and no issues arise, we route another 40% of users, repeat the testing/checking, and then completely switch over all users.

Think of the 10% as Tesla's internal employees and/or beta insiders (those currently testing FSD). The additional 40% is general users that they sit on for a couple days collecting logs and ensuring there's no widespread issue, then they bump it up further.


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

Don't forget that there's TWO code bases being developed, which means teams and efforts get split between the two. The current one that we're all on and the rewrite that was done for FSD (the one with private beta testers). Personally, I think the slowing trend of update releases is attributed to most of the engineering focused on the new FSD code and minimal effort focused on the current code base (the ones on our cars). Once FSD is released to the general community we'll likely see more frequent releases.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

NOGA$4ME said:


> I didn't say that though. Or at least I didn't mean to.
> 
> I think if releases generally get released every 4 weeks (just using that as an example, although that does appear to be the case in 2020) there will still be a distribution over each 4 week interval of when each car in the fleet gets that release (think of an S-curve). And on average, a given vehicle will receive the update at the 50th percentile point (wherever that is within the 4 week interval).
> 
> ...


I'm not seeing a slow rollout test phase. I would like to see a slow rollout test phase and ramp up towards the end. That's exactly what "I WANT" to see, however I don't see it.

What I'm seeing are dot release type updates.

2020.1.1 - initial rollout
2020.1.2 - fixes previous update
2020.1.3 - fixes previous update

2020.1.10 - Working update fixes all previous. Rolls out in a massive way.

Look below.....that's what I've been seeing for over a year now. NO slow release of 2020.48.10.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

shareef777 said:


> There's two answers to that one question. EVERY technology company with a large user base uses a CDN (content delivery network). They hold the "new updates" that Tesla would want to deliver to end users and our cars would be configured to talk to the closest one to our location (to speed up the download process). The second part to that is a "phased roll out". My company completes step one (published the new content to our CDN) and if it's a new platform we're testing we only route 10% of traffic to that platform to verify there's no serious bugs or issues we missed in QA and. If alls well and no issues arise, we route another 40% of users, repeat the testing/checking, and then completely switch over all users.
> 
> Think of the 10% as Tesla's internal employees and/or beta insiders (those currently testing FSD). The additional 40% is general users that they sit on for a couple days collecting logs and ensuring there's no widespread issue, then they bump it up further.


I would love to agree with you, however that's not what I've been seeing.

See the post above this one about 2020.48.X

That's what I've been seeing for over a year now.

2020.48. has a number of improvements that were not in 2020.44.x. In other words...there is new stuff.

I don't see Tesla testing 2020.48.X. as it stands in TeslaFi.


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## Needsdecaf (Dec 27, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> So once Tesla reaches 5 million cars.....all 5 million will be testers?
> 
> BOY - its going to take months to get a software update out to everyone.
> 
> I used to consistently get updates 1 or 2 days out from the initial rollout. Now its about a week. I attribute this to the increased size of the fleet. As the fleet expands even further....? What do you think about that logic?


I don't know. Probably not. They'll probably still have the same sample size of a few hundred to a few thousand cars as betas, and then roll it out big time to the fleet. It'll just be that the large roll out would be larger.

In looking at my "days from discovery to install" on TeslaFi (which is definitely some great data!) I see a slow upward trend, but nothing really significant.


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

Garlan Garner said:


> I would love to agree with you, however that's not what I've been seeing.
> 
> See the post above this one about 2020.48.X
> 
> ...


My guess is that there are more users buying Teslas that aren't registering in Teslafi so the numbers aren't going to be representative of the larger fleet like they were earlier in Teslafi's days. That's just a guess on my part. I personally didn't renew my Teslafi subscription after the first year and opted to go with a Teslamate local deployment.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Garlan Garner said:


> Oh yeah. I've got that selected. ( I really think that's a pacifier - not effective at all ).


That just indicates to Tesla that you're willing to be one of the "beta testers".

I guarantee that everybody who cares enough to be using TeslaFi has also had that field set to Advanced. So you're comparing yourself only to others who are also wanting to get builds early. Tesla doesn't need to push out early releases to that many people - they just want to know who all is _willing_ to be guinea pigs.


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## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

I join the responses that I see no reason that the number of cars would affect Tesla's rollout strategy as I think they are doing a number of checks on the software as different groups get it and that dictates the timing. Some of those groups may be random and some may be selected because of where they drive or what features they use.

Here is my contribution to science, the days since discovery to each of my cars getting an update. It says nothing of the versions skipped because they didn't apply to my cars, nor of ones found too buggy to keep pushing to more cars. I'm not a statistician, but I see no trend here over the past 3 years, as Tesla's fleet has dramatically increased.


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## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

Garlan Garner said:


> I'm not seeing a slow rollout test phase. I would like to see a slow rollout test phase and ramp up towards the end. That's exactly what "I WANT" to see, however I don't see it.
> 
> What I'm seeing are dot release type updates.
> 
> ...


I guess I am missing your point.

What I think you are saying is that you think that 2020.48.10 is the apparent last point release of 2020.48, and thus is being widely distributed at this point (okay, I can buy that, although it's not 100% clear this is the case until we see the next major release appear). And you are also saying that you are not seeing very many point releases prior to 2020.48.10, and the one that you are seeing (2020.48.5) has almost no rollout? This is the part I am unclear on what your point is.

If I have it more or less correct, some comments:

First, you have to click into the 2020.48.5 line to see the full fleet update history from prior to 12/04 (and even then the full history is not shown).









Second, are you saying that because there was only one point release for 2020.48 prior to the apparent final 2020.48.10 release, that it's evidence of not having an extensive test period? I.e. where is 2020.48.1, .2, .3, ..., .7, .8, etc? Well, for one thing it seems like Tesla has shifted slightly to a point release scheme where most of the point release numbers are divisible by 5. This seems somewhat recent. Whether that means there really were .1, .2, .6, etc. I don't know. Maybe they reserve those numbers for quick patches (as opposed to going to a 4th .1 digit) that aren't as widely distributed, and maybe they simply aren't needed if no issues appear.

I will say that the 2020.48 release (at least in worldwide distribution) did not contain sufficient content to make it seem like a prolonged/extensive testing period would be required.

Finally, unless you have been collecting and archiving TeslaFi data, it does not necessarily represent a complete view of the rollout process for past releases. For an older release to appear on TeslaFi today you would need a vehicle that is still marked as having that release installed, and in many cases, especially early point releases, I would expect that the entire population of vehicles on those early releases would have moved on to a later release, making that release "invisible" to someone looking back in time now on TeslaFi. The point is, the TeslaFi reports might not be truly indicative of how releases have rolled out in the past.


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

Garlan Garner said:


> I'm not seeing a slow rollout test phase. I would like to see a slow rollout test phase and ramp up towards the end. That's exactly what "I WANT" to see, however I don't see it.
> 
> What I'm seeing are dot release type updates.
> 
> ...


I don't really feel like there are stable releases. It feels more like they just catch everyone up once in awhile. The worst update for me was 2020.44.10.1.

If they do the tests by percentage it shouldn't matter how many people there are. If they do it by some raw number then, all else equal, you would get them slower.


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## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

Tesla would likely do them in waves, as they do now, but likely implement a CDN to take the load off. How much underlying change to their VPS and communications needs to happen I have no idea but to me seems like a non-issue given the downloads should be encrypted and checked with a hash before being installed. Pretty sure that happens now anyhow


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

I believe the "waves" are not to manage download bandwidth, but to diversify the Tesla fleet. If everyone got the same update at the same time, what if a certain percentage of the cars were bricked? If it's a percentage of everyone, that could be thousands of cars, which would overload their service network. A few dozen is manageable. So they do small groups at a time, and if all goes well, load up the next group, etc.

What they might have to do to keep that manageable when they have a lot more cars is start publishing updates _less frequently_, because at some point the upgrade cycles will start overlapping.


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## GDN (Oct 30, 2017)

Just a month or two ago Teslafi was a 1% representation of the Tesla fleet. Today with a little mind extrapolation per the numbers on Wiki they have likely built and sold about 1.4 million. Teslafi has 12,929 vehicles registered so they are now trending just a bit under 1%, but likely still the best sampling we will get with data available to the public. 

I believe that not much will change over the next couple of years. They will develop and push to smaller groups of cars. We will hit a point but I believe we are a couple of years away where the releases won't be as frequent. The feature set won't change as much, it will be more fully baked. Maybe we get to the point we get quarterly updates, maybe more controlled. 

They will always though be able to push to the whole fleet fairly quickly. They will have to in case of something like a security breach. Their VPN and car communication is pretty tight, but it relies on humans and keys and other tokens that seem to be compromised by even the best of the best. Should keys ever be compromised there is a chance they'd need to update all cars quickly. Or maybe there are safeguards that prevent a compromise, who knows?


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

GDN said:


> Just a month or two ago Teslafi was a 1% representation of the Tesla fleet. Today with a little mind extrapolation per the numbers on Wiki they have likely built and sold about 1.4 million. Teslafi has 12,929 vehicles registered so they are now trending just a bit under 1%, but likely still the best sampling we will get with data available to the public.
> 
> I believe that not much will change over the next couple of years. They will develop and push to smaller groups of cars. We will hit a point but I believe we are a couple of years away where the releases won't be as frequent. The feature set won't change as much, it will be more fully baked. Maybe we get to the point we get quarterly updates, maybe more controlled.
> 
> They will always though be able to push to the whole fleet fairly quickly. They will have to in case of something like a security breach. Their VPN and car communication is pretty tight, but it relies on humans and keys and other tokens that seem to be compromised by even the best of the best. Should keys ever be compromised there is a chance they'd need to update all cars quickly. Or maybe there are safeguards that prevent a compromise, who knows?


I don't disagree.

Thats a lot of speculation.

I'm just wondering if anyone could add to my scenario as to why I'm drifting back in the que of updates.

Just to the the lastest update 6 days from the initial rollout. That's the maximum length of time that matches the previous update.

Next update might be a full 7 days. That would fit the trend.


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

Garlan Garner said:


> Next update might be a full 7 days. That would fit the trend.


Only 7 days? Even with Advanced turned on, I'm regularly so far at the end of the upgrade cycle that often I'll get an update only a couple of days before the _next _update comes out.  Sometimes that does mean I get one early though, because my scheduled group comes up too late for the previous version, and it's been swapped out already. For instance I just got 48.10 yesterday, 5 days after its release. But I was upgraded from 44.something, because I missed all of the releases in between.

Though it hasn't happened so far (the schedule has always been like this) I do think that as I have a 2018 model, my updates will probably become even less frequent as the fleet size increases. Eventually the newer models will need more stability fixes and new feature updates that older models don't support. And Tesla might be more wary of accidentally bricking an out of warranty car because they like playing on the bleeding edge. So eventually, I think older models might start to only get updates once or twice a year.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Garlan Garner said:


> I'm just wondering if anyone could add to my scenario as to why I'm drifting back in the que of updates.


It's all in your head. You're no more behind than anybody else.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

garsh said:


> It's all in your head. You're no more behind than anybody else.


Thanks for trying to lighten the load, however what caused me to start this thread is my provable movement backwards.

See how the current update is starting to slow down in TeslaFi? Now- That's when I usually get an update.










It didn't used to be that way - That's my whole point. Its that I'm riding the wave to the rear of the line.....LOL Somebody has to be at the end of the line - sure.....but I didn't used to be here.

I'm not complaining about being at the end. If I was always at the end....fine.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Garlan Garner said:


> It didn't used to be that way - That's my whole point. Its that I'm riding the wave to the rear of the line.....LOL Somebody has to be at the end of the line - sure.....but I didn't used to be here..


Every one of us has experienced this.
Some of us used to be among the first to get an update. Then we were suddenly one of the last.
Some of us used to be among the last. Then we were suddenly with the first group.
It changes over time for everyone.


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

garsh said:


> Every one of us has experienced this.
> Some of us used to be among the first to get an update. Then we were suddenly one of the last.
> Some of us used to be among the last. Then we were suddenly with the first group.
> It changes over time for everyone.


I suppose I've never been a person that is satisfied because I belong to the group called "Everyone".

I'm glad Elon isn't either - or else we might not even have a forum as Tesla wouldn't exist.

My parents always said "Put your brain on it and do it" Don't look to the right or the left.

We have all heard the phrase "If everyone jumps off a bridge....."

Most of the time I don't know what "everyone" is doing - and I'm not really concerned.

In my book Everyone doesn't establish/determine the norm.

Elon - much credit to your mom.


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## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

@Garlan Garner, I would be interested to see your data for more than a sample size of just 2 or 3 data points. I'll see if I can tease out that data for my case as well. That's the only way to determine if this is really a trend or whether it does show something going on, but I'm still of the opinion that it's mostly a perception issue and that most of the time, most people are near the tail end of a release, but the relatively few times we have been near the beginning are outweighed in our heads. And even if we were frequently at the beginning of the line, I would chalk that more up to luck,

I don't think we can get that data out of TeslaFi as is, at least not historically.

For a meaningful study, we would need to know 

What day the first instance of a new major release (e.g. 2020.48.*) was detected (perhaps use the release announcement threads on TMC?) This MAY be available on TeslaFi, but since releases disappear on the TeslaFi display when no cars in the TeslaFi have that rev installed, it may be "missing" some releases to the casual observer).
What day we first received the first instance of a new release. This IS readily available from TeslaFi
What day 50% (or some other figure accepted as indicating the release went into wide distribution) of the fleet installed some version of a major release. This is probably only gatherable by watching TeslaFi stats on a frequent basis, so gathering historical data would be difficult here. This data point is necessary to account for the fact that some major releases might go into wide distribution pretty quickly, while others may take more time (perhaps another receive we may "perceive" that we are early on in the distribution cycle).


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## Garlan Garner (May 24, 2016)

NOGA$4ME said:


> I guess I am missing your point.
> 
> What I think you are saying is that you think that 2020.48.10 is the apparent last point release of 2020.48, and thus is being widely distributed at this point (okay, I can buy that, although it's not 100% clear this is the case until we see the next major release appear). And you are also saying that you are not seeing very many point releases prior to 2020.48.10, and the one that you are seeing (2020.48.5) has almost no rollout? This is the part I am unclear on what your point is.
> 
> ...


My post has nothing to do with point releases or major releases or anything like that. Really doesn't matter.

Software comes out - I'm getting the opportunity to install it later and later in the game.

Thats all....

I don't know any other way to say it.


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## NR4P (Jul 14, 2018)

I am more worried about Supercharger build out. It isn't keeping up as it stands now. At least in my State.
Still have 6 station, V2 SC's on major highways. Weekends are a mess at times, with Covid preventing vacations.


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

<AHEM> Does Google slow down as more and more users sign-on?

Bob Wilson


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

bwilson4web said:


> <AHEM> Does Google slow down as more and more users sign-on?
> Bob Wilson


Netflix is another example. Tens of millions users streaming hundreds of megabytes every hour with no issue. But Netflix is heavily decentralized with hubs all over the place to decrease traffic on the backbones.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> Netflix might be a better example. Tens of millions users streaming hundreds of megabytes every hour with no issue. But Netflix is heavily decentralized with hubs all over the place to decrease traffic on the backbones.


Same for Google.


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## GDN (Oct 30, 2017)

NR4P said:


> I am more worried about Supercharger build out. It isn't keeping up as it stands now. At least in my State.
> Still have 6 station, V2 SC's on major highways. Weekends are a mess at times, with Covid preventing vacations.


There are plans for more SC expansion, especially in China. They are building a dedicated factory just to produce SC'ers for China. That should free up the demand for the remainder of the SC's built for the US and the rest of the world demand. There are still aggressive plans to build and increase stations.

However there are quicker ways to fix the problem they would likely employ first. That is to hike up the prices so most find a better alternative to charge in their home market (like at home and apartments and condos will finally catch on they can make money or at least partner with on prem charging solutions and all home owners will get someting installed in their garage). The SC network was truly designed for long distance travel.

I could see Tesla implementing multi level pricing - more expensive if you are within a 50 mile radius of your home zip code, cheaper if you are out on the road. That would discourage you from using a local SC.

The busiest charger close to DFW was just expanded with v3 chargers. @MelindaV has a SC charging station near her that also includes Destination Chargers - so you can choose what is most appropriate. If you are going to be shopping for 4 hours in a mall, choose the slower charger. On the road and need quick juice choose the v3.

You have to realize Tesla is still so far ahead of anyone else. I'm looking forward to the Mach E, but just wait til you hear their horror stories for their road trips.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

GDN said:


> There are plans for more SC expansion, especially in China. They are building a dedicated factory just to produce SC'ers for China. That should free up the demand for the remainder of the SC's built for the US and the rest of the world demand. There are still aggressive plans to build and increase stations.
> 
> However there are quicker ways to fix the problem they would likely employ first. That is to hike up the prices so most find a better alternative to charge in their home market (like at home and apartments and condos will finally catch on they can make money or at least partner with on prem charging solutions and all home owners will get someting installed in their garage). The SC network was truly designed for long distance travel.
> 
> ...


I think that the market forces will figure this out and we'll see more and more *fast* charging stations outside Tesla's network. What would be helpful in the US is an agreement to settle on a single standard for adapters like they did in Europe and China.


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

GDN said:


> That is to hike up the prices so most find a better alternative to charge in their home market (like at home and apartments and condos will finally catch on they can make money or at least partner with on prem charging solutions and all home owners will get someting installed in their garage).


In my experience it's not that easy. Getting a condo or an apartment to install charging can be a multi-year endeavor. It would stink to make it more expensive for people to drive an EV vs an ICE as a way to try to get associations that may not care about EVs to do something.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

GDN said:


> @MelindaV has a SC charging station near her that also includes Destination Chargers - so you can choose what is most appropriate. If you are going to be shopping for 4 hours in a mall, choose the slower charger. On the road and need quick juice choose the v3.


and last time I checked (maybe 4 or 6 weeks ago), the destination chargers were still not powered on, after being installed and the Superchargers up and running since March this year.


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## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

Here is my contribution to science (albeit without the 3rd pillar of data which would make this a more scientific report):



Release

First reported

# days until install

Time %

2020.4

1/27

3

8%

2020.8

3/6

4

57%

2020.12

3/13

32

59%

2020.16

5/6

14

93%

2020.20

5/21

22

79%

2020.24

6/18

6

27%

2020.28

7/10

17

65%

2020.32

8/5

20

83%

2020.36

9/14

16

50%

2020.40

9/30

8

24%

2020.44

11/3

3

11%

2020.48

11/30

8

TBD


The table shows each of the major releases in 2020, the (approximate) date the release was first sighted on TeslaFi, the number of elapsed days before MY car received a point release for that major release, and the last column is the percentage of time elapsed at the time of my install between the first sighting of the current release and the first sighting of the NEXT release. It's the last column that could be made better by counting when a given release went into wide distribution rather than the start of the next release, but for now, this is the best I have.

Here are some graphical views.

First, the number of days between each of the releases in 2020 to try to tease out whether the time between releases has been growing:









Other than the wild swing in the 2020.12 (7 days), 2020.16 (54 days) and 2020.20 (15 days) releases, which may be due to a reporting error rather than an actual release cycle swing, I would say that Tesla's release cycle appears to be fairly consistent.

And here is my personal experience showing how early in each cycle I got the release:








For those keeping score, I was at or below the 50% mark 5 times and above 6 times.


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

FrancoisP said:


> What would be helpful in the US is an agreement to settle on a single standard for adapters like they did in Europe and China.


My understanding is regardless of physical connector, only Teslas can charge at a SuperCharger.

Bob Wilson


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

bwilson4web said:


> My understanding is regardless of physical connector, only Teslas can charge at a SuperCharger.
> Bob Wilson


We know that CHADEMO has been dropped by Nissan in favor of CCS and that it has no future. The remaining two standards are Tesla and CCS (for all other manufacturers). In a few years CCS chargers will likely outnumber Tesla's so it would be nice to be able to use them. Unfortunately Tesla in its great wisdom will not provide an adaptor for the US. There is one in Europe but it's not compatible.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> Unfortunately Tesla in its great wisdom will not provide an adaptor for the US. There is one in Europe but it's not compatible.


http://www.setec-power.com/ccs-adapter/


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

garsh said:


> http://www.setec-power.com/ccs-adapter/


Unfortunately it's not from Tesla. I'd be afraid to damage my car.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> Unfortunately it's not from Tesla. I'd be afraid to damage my car.


Do you also refuse to charge at public charging stations because they weren't made by Tesla? 

EVSEs are just "fancy switches". And charge ports on cars are generally designed to be very robust.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

garsh said:


> EVSEs are just "fancy switches". And charge ports on cars are generally designed to be very robust.


🤗 No thanks. I'll let others try it first.

I'm hoping that California will come out in favor of a single connector standard as it has been done elsewhere


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## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> We know that CHADEMO has been dropped by Nissan in favor of CCS and that it has no future. The remaining two standards are Tesla and CCS (for all other manufacturers). In a few years CCS chargers will likely outnumber Tesla's so it would be nice to be able to use them. Unfortunately Tesla in its great wisdom will not provide an adaptor for the US. There is one in Europe but it's not compatible.


Don't forget about GB/T. If you want to talk pure numbers, everyone should just adopt that standard!

I do agree with your sentiment though. I wished that when the Model Y was introduced that they had taken the dramatic step to shift to CCS like they did in Europe and retrofit existing North American Superchargers to work with a CCS connector. One day in the future the number of CCS plugs out there will dwarf Tesla connectors and Tesla will end up looking like the CHAdeMO of today with Tesla having to maintain a network of Superchargers for us in the midst of a sea of CCS chargers.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

NOGA$4ME said:


> Don't forget about GB/T. If you want to talk pure numbers, everyone should just adopt that standard!
> 
> I do agree with your sentiment though. I wished that when the Model Y was introduced that they had taken the dramatic step to shift to CCS like they did in Europe and retrofit existing North American Superchargers to work with a CCS connector. One day in the future the number of CCS plugs out there will dwarf Tesla connectors and Tesla will end up looking like the CHAdeMO of today with Tesla having to maintain a network of Superchargers for us in the midst of a sea of CCS chargers.


Maybe something is coming after all:

Electrek: Tesla announces new CCS charging adapter but North America launch still unclear.
https://electrek.co/2020/12/16/tesla-announces-new-ccs-charging-adapter/


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