# Suffering from serious FOMO



## harrison987 (Jun 30, 2018)

So I invested in Tesla stock back when I bought my Model 3 in 2018. I had about $40K @ $300 per share.

I think I bought and sold twice due to finances...

I had about the same amount invested again in March last year... But again... Due to finances, covid-19, and clients owing me upwards of $60K and not paying... I had to sell my stock position.

I have about $15,000 to invest now... But I keep hesitating on Tesla. Every time I want to pull the trigger I realize:

1) the amount of shares I would be buying would be low

2) the amount of profit would be low over the course of the next year or two due to little amount invested

3) there are other companies I could invest in and make a lot more profit over the same time period.


I have a lot of regrets for selling my position. Hindsight, I probably could have scraped by financially... And now I'm suffering from FOMO... wanting to pull the trigger again... But stopping myself because the stock price is still so damn high. 😭

I'm curious what other people are doing right now... Or other investor thoughts? 

TIA

Mike


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## GDN (Oct 30, 2017)

If you read what many analysts write, this stock should not be doing what it is. So that is always a little scary My advice would be horrible (so just do your own research), but I can tell you I don't typically hold when I should and I get in and out at the wrong times. I sold TSLA in March of this year, finally got back in in late August. I missed most of the big growth this year, but have almost doubled my money since August. I was also in TSLA 2 years ago and sold, if I'd held that I would likely be about 5 years closer to retirement.

There are other stocks out there too and I didn't' hold them right either. Bought into NIO at $5 and sold at a little loss to get back in to Tesla, however as of today I would have been up 10X my money on that one if I had held and I think it may have better growth potential than Tesla as this point, but who really knows. 

If you like EV related stocks there are a lot you could look at that might be good options too, you just have to evaluate them. NIO, LAZR, XPEV, WKHS, FUV, SOLO are just a few along with the battery companies like QS which has just taken a huge slide. There are SPAC's (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) and heck, there is alway Bitcoin. If Elon and the porn stars keep tweeting about DOGE, that might just be a better gamble.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

harrison987 said:


> *Due to finances... I had to sell my stock position.*


As much as I believe that TSLA will do well, you should NOT be investing any money in individual stocks if you cannot afford to lose that investment.

Only buy it if you can afford to lose it, AND plan to do nothing but HOLD it long term. As you've seen, it's too difficult to time the market to sell and re-buy.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

harrison987 said:


> I have about $15,000 to invest now...
> 
> 1) the amount of shares I would be buying would be low
> 2) the amount of profit would be low over the course of the next year or two due to little amount invested
> 3) there are other companies I could invest in and make a lot more profit over the same time period.


1) The "amount of shares" is a red herring. It's not important. This is just psychology working against you. This is why companies perform stock splits - because people see a lower price as more of a "bargain", even though each share is proportionally a smaller portion of the company.
2 & 3) What company do you think is going to give you more profit than Tesla over the next year or two? Seriously. I think you'd be hard-pressed to name anything today.

I just bought two more shares at $670 right after Christmas.
I've made over 9% on those shares in a little over a *single week.*


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## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

@harrison987, I also started investing in TSLA in 2018. I have always had some forever shares and some I have traded in and out. I sometimes did well with selling high and buying back low, but I also sometimes missed the full impact of price swings up. In retrospect, holding would have been far better as the stock is up a zillion percent.

I have made more on TSLA than I've ever made on a single stock. I still get annoyed, tho, at my Twitter feed filled with people showing snapshots of their portfolios and the millions they have made. (Why oh why does anyone feel the need to publicly show that?) No matter how much you believe in a company and it's growth story, anyone who thinks it is due to their personal brilliance needs to eat a piece of humble pie. Lucky, yes, I'll give them that.

I lived and invested through the tech bubble of 2000. I recently reviewed what NASDAQ and individual stocks did during that time. It is sobering.

Anyway, I do believe in TSLA and am still looking to buy more. I did a large Roth conversion on Jan 1 and was looking to put a substantial part of it in TSLA. A bit perturbed at the jump up today. 😬

But anyway, as far as any "grounding" advice:

I find @garyblack00 on Twitter to be helpful. He is bullish but quantitatively so, and not full of the ridiculous 🚀 tweets.
Time cost averaging is your friend. Have a set amount to regularly invest, and sometimes you will buy higher and sometimes lower, but overall it will be good for a stock with good fundamentals.
I look at whether I think an individual stock will do better than the overall market. My answer for TSLA is yes, so thus why I'm willing to put more in. But I see that you think there are other stocks that will do better. Then invest in them.
I hear you on the cringe factor to buy now, tho. Paying more than $700? That was more than $3500 pre split! And back then we worried about whether the stock was $300 or $250. I just black out these thoughts!!
I don't believe stock investing should be for money you may need in the next few years. While it is tempting to see large past swings and think "if only I had put this here for this time period".... that only works well if you have a crystal ball to see into the future. My crystal ball has massive cracks in it.


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

I'm not really in a position to give investment advice. But I am in a position to read the news and interpret how people might react to it! Which I guess is kind of the basis for predicting where some stocks will go. However, the stock market is always a little bit insane, so who knows.

Assuming some sane-ness though, I think the best thing might be to wait until the end of 2021. Lucid, Rivan, Ford, GM, and Volvo are all supposed to be having EV offerings either available or advertised by then, and the "Tesla killer" rumors will start up again, suppressing the stock value. Then you can buy some before it goes back up again.

Also, there might be a lot less chance of having to cash it out due to pandemic related interference.


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## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

Bigriver said:


> @harrison987, I also started investing in TSLA in 2018. I have always had some forever shares and some I have traded in and out. I sometimes did well with selling high and buying back low, but I also sometimes missed the full impact of price swings up. In retrospect, holding would have been far better as the stock is up a zillion percent.
> 
> I have made more on TSLA than I've ever made on a single stock. I still get annoyed, tho, at my Twitter feed filled with people showing snapshots of their portfolios and the millions they have made. (Why oh why does anyone feel the need to publicly show that?) No matter how much you believe in a company and it's growth story, anyone who thinks it is due to their personal brilliance needs to eat a piece of humble pie. Lucky, yes, I'll give them that.
> 
> ...


Your final bullet point may well be the best investing advice you can give. If there is ANY reasonable chance that you may have to sell in the short term, DON"T buy. There is a good chance you might be forced to sell when your investment is down. Sell when you WANT to, not when you HAVE to.

To the OP, you say you know other stocks that will do better...buy them, not Tesla(although I have no idea how you could possibly know this). You buying Tesla at any time after original issue does little to nothing to help Tesla, only the other investors in Tesla.


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## ateslik (Apr 13, 2018)

I completely closed my TSLA position today. The competition is really heating up for them and I'd rather lock in the gains. Mabye I'll regret it, who knows. Certainly not me, lol!

I did it because I recently saw a video comparing the Polestar2 to the M3. In the end the reviewers chose the Polestar2.

In another video MKBHD chose the Porsche Taycan over his beloved Model S. This is a sign of things to come in my opinion. TSLA is going to have a demand problem because of their build quality once the competition enters the scene this year. The only differentiator keeping people on TSLA right now is the Supercharging network, but Electrify America is growing and Tesla is preparing to share the Supercharger network. I think that's a critical mistake. I see trouble ahead. The 1400 P/E is also beyond comprehension.

I still like the company and they're exciting, but I need to keep my money


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

ateslik said:


> TSLA is going to have a demand problem because of their build quality once the competition enters the scene this year.


I agree that Tesla has to fix both their build issues, and lack of luxury in the interiors. They have not yet caught up with the competition in these areas. But I think we've seen that these issues haven't been big enough to affect demand.



> The only differentiator keeping people on TSLA right now is the Supercharging network...


It's certainly a big differentiator, and a very important one. But you misjudge how quickly Electrify America is catching up. EA is making good progress as far as number of charging locations, but they are WAY behind in capacity at each location. Most locations only have four stations, whereas the majority of Supercharging locations have at least eight, and some high-traffic locations have over 50.

But that is not the biggest "moat" that Tesla has. That would be manufacturing. Even if they can design and build a compelling car (they really haven't yet as far as high-volume, lower-price models), the competition is nowhere near being able to produce them in the volume required to be a serious competitor to Model 3 or Model Y. Polestar 2 sales figures are but a drop in the bucket compared to Model 3. These companies can't get enough batteries to build more cars, and (with the possible exception of VW) have no viable plans to do so in the near future.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

ateslik said:


> In another video MKBHD chose the Porsche Taycan over his beloved Model S. This is a sign of things to come in my opinion.


Nah. Competing at the high-end isn't too hard. A new company making "supercars" comes out every few years. Volumes are pretty low, and prices are high.

But even in the case of the MKBHD choosing a Porsche, that decision would have been made based on sporty handling and/or interior amenities. By any more practical metric (like cost and range), the Model S is a much more compelling car.


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## iChris93 (Feb 3, 2017)

garsh said:


> Nah. Competing at the high-end isn't too hard. A new company making "supercars" comes out every few years. Volumes are pretty low, and prices are high.
> 
> But even in the case of the MKBHD choosing a Porsche, that decision would have been made based on sporty handling and/or interior amenities. By any more practical metric (like cost and range), the Model S is a much more compelling car.


Also, MKBHD is keeping his S over the Taycan because it is more practical, so I wouldn't even say he chose the Taycan.


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

garsh said:


> and lack of luxury in the interiors.


Since this is a topic about the market...I don't like that the market tends to show only two viable segments for cars: Luxury for wealthy car buyers, and commodity ("just get me something cheap to get from A to B") for everyone who can't afford luxury. There is something in between - customers who wants something specific or different but don't have the money for luxury models. It's not a big segment, but it exists.

It's also the segment where Tesla is moving into right now. Because the market doesn't believe that segment exists, there is pressure on Tesla to add more luxury and raise their prices to compete with Lucid in the full luxury segment. Elon Musk on the other hand, is putting pressure to get the prices down further to compete _more_ with the "A to B" segment - but that's unreachable for BEV's right now, so Tesla sits somewhere in between.


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## ateslik (Apr 13, 2018)

in a place with more choices people are choosing other manufacturers over Tesla. That's my concern. This article came out this morning:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stockbeat-norway-gives-sobering-look-055942082.html


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## ateslik (Apr 13, 2018)

garsh said:


> I agree that Tesla has to fix both their build issues, and lack of luxury in the interiors. They have not yet caught up with the competition in these areas. But I think we've seen that these issues haven't been big enough to affect demand.
> 
> It's certainly a big differentiator, and a very important one. But you misjudge how quickly Electrify America is catching up. EA is making good progress as far as number of charging locations, but they are WAY behind in capacity at each location. Most locations only have four stations, whereas the majority of Supercharging locations have at least eight, and some high-traffic locations have over 50.
> 
> But that is not the biggest "moat" that Tesla has. That would be manufacturing. Even if they can design and build a compelling car (they really haven't yet as far as high-volume, lower-price models), the competition is nowhere near being able to produce them in the volume required to be a serious competitor to Model 3 or Model Y. Polestar 2 sales figures are but a drop in the bucket compared to Model 3. These companies can't get enough batteries to build more cars, and (with the possible exception of VW) have no viable plans to do so in the near future.


These are all great points.


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## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

When I think TSLA is getting too high I diversify into ETFs that hold significant TSLA positions like ARKK and DRIV. They were up 156% and 64% in 2020 and give you exposure to other electric/futuristic technology.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

ateslik said:


> in a place with more choices people are choosing other manufacturers over Tesla. That's my concern. This article came out this morning:
> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stockbeat-norway-gives-sobering-look-055942082.html


I don't think that's a correct interpretation of what's happening in Norway. Tesla is selling every car that they import into Norway. Norway's demand for EVs is very high due to government incentives, and there's simply not enough supply of Teslas to fulfill it. Therefore, people settle for other models rather than pay more for a combustion vehicle.

It's better to take a look at China. China has a lot of other EV manufacturers available, yet Tesla still is able to sell every car they manufacture in that country. And we should pay particular attention to how well the Model Y ends up selling there this year - like North America, China is SUV-crazy (which makes it even more remarkable that the Model 3 sedan sells as well as it does there).


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

Depends on what your motives are. If you want to own part of companies you feel strongly about that's one reason. If you want to take the emotion out of investing with the best chance of success historically look at index funds and bonds. If you want to step up to the Wall Street Casino and try to get rich that's a whole different game.

Its really cool that a bunch of Tesla fans/believers supported Tesla by buying stock and made a lot of money. There certainly was no guarantee though and thank goodness you were able to sell at a profit instead of being forced to sell at a loss. Definitely beware putting emergency funds in individual stocks. This has been a whacky year and it won't be the last.


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## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

M3OC Rules said:


> If you want to own part of companies you feel strongly about that's one reason. If you want to take the emotion out of investing with the best chance of success historically look at index funds and bonds. If you want to step up to the Wall Street Casino and try to get rich that's a whole different game.


Wall Street is not a casino. In a casino most people lose over time. If you buy shares of the world's best companies and hold them for years Wall Street is very profitable. Although there is one similarity-- casinos give you free drinks to keep you happy, and Wall Street gives you dividends...


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Mr. Spacely said:


> Wall Street is not a casino. In a casino most people lose over time. If you buy shares of the world's best companies and hold them for years Wall Street is very profitable.


If by "buy shares of the world's best companies" you mean "index funds", I agree.
But if you're picking individual stocks, you're gambling. The odds may be better, but you're still gambling. Don't gamble with money you need.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Buy low & sell high. Not sure if now is the best buying opportunity. It certainly is a good time to sell.

The stock market is due for a major correction soon. Only then would we consider buying more shares. 

My wife just sold 6% of her shares in order to lock in profits. She intends to keep most of her remaining shares forever.

We’re also diversified into the crypto currency market, which just crossed $1 trillion in total market cap, in order to hedge against traditional markets.


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## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

$ Trillion Musk said:


> The stock market is due for a major correction soon.


No one can predict the stock market. Over time it always goes up, but you never know when/if/how long it will go down.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Mr. Spacely said:


> No one can predict the stock market. Over time it always goes up, but you never know when/if/how long it will go down.


Of course.

I do follow some reliable technical analysts. Every single one of them states that stocks are in a bubble. And whenever there's a bubble forming, a pop is imminent. I trust their expert opinions, and they've been correct most of last year.

There's also the threat of a US Dollar collapse, which we should all closely monitor.

I'd rather have them be wrong in this matter, but nothing in the financial realm goes up in a straight line forever.


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## CoastalCruiser (Sep 29, 2017)

I was going to make this a separate post, but it seems appropriate to add to your thread $Trillion.

A completely unrelated reason TSLA _could_ soar some more: *Bitcoin*.

This will not be w/o controversy, but you gotta admit the below article is interesting. Here is a summary.

1) Bitcoin is starting to prove itself as sustainable. For one thing the "halving cycle" of bitcoin supply, coupled with the price plotted on a logarithmic chart, tends to make sense of both the wild price girations as well as reason to be we may never see 4 digit prices again (or at least for some time). See here for more.

2) Institutional buying. Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones went heavy on bitcoin, and now institutional buying is occurring.

3) Most importantly, MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) converted all its free cash to bitcoin. It's stock soared with the rise of bitcoin, and is now considered a proxy for bitcoin. Many funds and institutions that can't invest in bitcoin _can_ buy MSTR.

4) The kicker is that CEO of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, has urged Elon Musk to convert all free cash into bitcoin.

We will see.....

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/h...ey-boosts-stake-bitcoin-fanatic-microstrategy


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Musk expressed his doubts about Bitcoin given his understated response to Saylor's tweet, "Are such large transactions even possible?"

He wouldn't buy Bitcoin, and I'll tell you why...

Here's what you almost never hear about Bitcoin: It's environmentally unfriendly as it consumes 1% of global electricity. (That doesn't sound like Musk at all!) It's quite expensive and terribly inefficient; when buying a cup of coffee you have to pay as much as a $55 "gas" fee and the transaction can take over 24 hours to complete. Imagine what it would take to transact millions & billions worth of Bitcoin. Furthermore, it's highly susceptible to a 51% attack and its supply can be increased programmatically. (Look up the shortcomings of Proof-of-Work technology.)

For these reasons Bitcoin has been widely praised as a "store of value" - as a coverup - due to its epic failure as a payments system, as was originally intended by Satoshi Nakamoto in his white paper.

If Musk created a cryptocurrency it would be the total opposite of Bitcoin. Do you really believe that he will do such a trade?

On top of all that, Bitcoin's value is being artificially inflated by Tether, whose company is under threat of a $1.4 trillion lawsuit that could rattle the entire cryptocurrency space any day now that the SEC & OCC are supposed to announce brand new crypto regulations within the next 2 weeks. Any resulting negativity upon Tether will crash Bitcoin to 4 digits easily. The likes of Microstrategy would be endangered by holding Bitcoin.

TSLA's continued parabolic rise wouldn't be due to Bitcoin. It's like uprooting your house upon a rock and setting it on top of the house upon the sand. Bitcoin doesn't have a solid foundation, and I'm pretty sure that Musk knows it as well.

Maybe some other crypto asset would fit the bill... 😉


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## CoastalCruiser (Sep 29, 2017)

So much for tryin' to cheer up the OP.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

CoastalCruiser said:


> So much for tryin' to cheer up the OP.


People tend to lose money after they FOMO into buying at record highs. That's not a happy place to be. I've been down that road more than once before.


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## tivoboy (Mar 24, 2017)

Don't beat yourself up.. in 2018 I invested ~100K in TSLA in equities and options (short and long) and made about 250K in six months.. I moved on to the other 20-25+ equities that I trade after that.. had I just held the 100K in TSLA to now, well we can all do that math. A mere pitance to the 25K in AAPL that I bought in 1997 (and sold for 5x), at a now split adjusted .03$ - that's 3 cents for those of you out there decimally challenged.. I have many rules of investing that keep me at over 85% win rate and one of the top five is "should I just HOLD this position?"


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## CoastalCruiser (Sep 29, 2017)

On the other hand...


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## CoastalCruiser (Sep 29, 2017)

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/08/tesla-buys-1point5-billion-in-bitcoin.html


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## tivoboy (Mar 24, 2017)

No better way to goose your stock than saying you’re going to be buying and holding bitcoin... untill it isn’t.


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## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

Could this be Elon's version of a Gamestop play?


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## tivoboy (Mar 24, 2017)

FRC said:


> Could this be Elon's version of a Gamestop play?


The "gamestop play" has been going on with Tesla stock for several years now already..might have been one of the first and certainly largest companies to have the options gamma trade disproportionality impact share price.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Guess I stand corrected. 😅

Will continue to avoid Bitcoin like the plague despite what Elon Musk thinks of it.


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