# Just How Much Is FSD Worth?



## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

So, because I am bored and more than interested in this topic, I was wondering just how much this feature could ultimately be worth. If Tesla came out tomorrow with truly full self driving ability, no driver needed at all, what could they charge for that ability and still sell enough of the feature to make it viable? Not really interested in what they WOULD charge, but what they COULD charge. In other words, what would the general public be willing to pay for such ability.

Considering the applications that could be utilized, from transporting the elderly and infirm as well as those no longer able to drive themselves to virtually eliminating the need for multiple cars in a family, to the ability for the car to make money for the owner through autonomous Uber like services when not in use as well as all the other applications, I for one think they could easily charge $15000 or more. Interested in your thoughts though.

Dan


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## Brett (Aug 1, 2017)

I'd easily pay 10k just for the ability to sleep through my commute. More if it really had the "go park yourself" feature.


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

Brett said:


> I'd easily pay 10k just for the ability to sleep through my commute. More if it really had the "go park yourself" feature.


Well, in my dream scenario this is real FSD...as in summon it cross country with nobody in the car FSD so...yeah.

Dan


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## ng0 (Apr 11, 2017)

So if Tesla really came out tomorrow and released FSD and more importantly, 1) proved 100% reliability, and 2) was able to get 100% approval in at least California, then I totally agree that this one feature would be worth 15K+. Like you said, if that was available, and Tesla opened up the "Tesla Network" for ride sharing (since using it for other services is off limits according to the terms of use), you could potentially make money off your car going and picking people up all day long without doing anything. That would easily make up 15-20K in a year.


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

I'm not sure they would let me do it, but I would send it to pick up my in-laws, one of whom can't drive and the other of whom shouldn't.

I'd also send it home instead of parking at the airport, and given how often my wife and I travel for work it would be like having an extra car. 

It lets one car do the work of two, which is a big deal in a family of 5.


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## Maevra (Oct 24, 2017)

I'd still pay only $3-6k because I don't plan to use it for the Tesla Network or any sort of fully autonomous (no driver in car) activities. FSD in my desired use case would be a truly hands-free driving option, but I'd still want to physically be in the vehicle, just because I don't trust other people with my very expensive car.


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## Matthias Fritz (Aug 20, 2017)

Maevra said:


> I'd still pay only $3-6k because I don't plan to use it for the Tesla Network or any sort of fully autonomous (no driver in car) activities. FSD in my desired use case would be a truly hands-free driving option, but I'd still want to physically be in the vehicle, just because I don't trust other people with my very expensive car.


that is definitely a task for everyone's 2nd car


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

Maevra said:


> I'd still pay only $3-6k because I don't plan to use it for the Tesla Network or any sort of fully autonomous (no driver in car) activities. FSD in my desired use case would be a truly hands-free driving option, but I'd still want to physically be in the vehicle, just because I don't trust other people with my very expensive car.


What about transporting under aged family members or those too old to drive safely?

Dan


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## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

I’m not interested in FSD but if they were to make it $2K you’d probably see me get it. Otherwise make it as a paid service if you put your car into the Tesla network.


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## Maevra (Oct 24, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> What about transporting under aged family members or those too old to drive safely?
> 
> Dan


I would be ok only if it was an emergency, like a family member needing to go to the hospital and I'm not there to drive them, but overall I'm very uncomfortable with the idea of allowing minors in autonomous vehicles without an adult present (what happens in the event of an accident or kidnapping for instance?). Clearly my theme here is I trust the vehicles... I don't trust the humans.


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

Just to be clear, I was interested in what you think Tesla could charge for such a feature...not necessarily what you would personally pay for it. No way could I swing an extra 15K but I think they could easily charge that much.

Dan


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## Brett (Aug 1, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> interested in what you think Tesla could charge for such a feature


In that spirit, think about how much this would be worth to someone who lost their licence (think multiple DUIs) but still needs to get to work, etc. I bet they would pay a lot!


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## Maevra (Oct 24, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> Just to be clear, I was interested in what you think Tesla could charge for such a feature...not necessarily what you would personally pay for it. No way could I swing an extra 15K but I think they could easily charge that much.
> 
> Dan


Ah got it, yeah in that case... 10k. It's not a bad price to pay for the huge convenience/peace of mind potential, but anything over that would be a bit much IMO.


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

Also imagine if you could really reliably go to sleep in one city and wake up in another. You could split your time between two cities, for just the cost of a couple of charge-ups each day. You could even stop paying rent. Start looking up two cities you care about that are ~ 8 hours apart by car...

P.S. Preferably destinations with a shower.


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

It kind of depends on how you look at it. For $3k its an expensive option. Lots of people will say I don't mind driving and I wouldn't pay anything for it.(Definitely not me but I've heard it.) But then you start thinking about replacing ride sharing services and having less cars. It easily pays for itself at that price. Then you think of the Tesla network and you're making money on your car. And if you compare it to an Autonomous Waymo or Autonomous Bolt and its a steal if its $15k. $3k is a no brainer for me if its ready to party.


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

John said:


> Also imagine if you could really reliably go to sleep in one city and wake up in another. You could split your time between two cities, for just the cost of a couple of charge-ups each day. You could even stop paying rent. Start looking up two cities you care about that are ~ 8 hours apart by car...
> 
> P.S. Preferably destinations with a shower.


Autonomous RV would be the bomb! Tech CEO lets do this!


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

DC Rules said:


> Autonomous RV would be the bomb! Tech CEO lets do this!


Yeah, we'll hit that retiree market HARD. You with me?

Dealer: "Okay, Fred, Mabel-congratulations on your purchase of the WindStar Vista Auto-Cruiser XLD. You're going to love it!"

Mabel: "Talk to Fred, he's going to do all the driving."

Fred: "What?"

Mabel: "The driving."

Fred: "What driving?"

Mabel: "ALL THE DRIVING!"

Fred: "All the driving, what?"

Mabel: "YOU"RE DOING ALL THE DRIVING!"

Fred: "I know that. Where's the keys?"

Dealer: "Ha, well, funnily enough: there are no keys!"

Fred: "You dumb ass, you knew we were picking it up. Where did you put them?"

Dealer: "There are none."

Fred: "Who makes an RV and forgets to make keys for it? Good lord, son."

Dealer: "No, I mean you don't need keys. You use your smartphone."

Fred: "What smart phone?"

Dealer: "Oh, ****."


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

John said:


> WindStar Vista Auto-Cruiser XLD


They will be sold at WindStar! Do you think Ford will pay us to use it?


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## Twiglett (Feb 8, 2017)

I fully expect Tesla to at least double the current price of FSD after they release it for real.
I also slightly less fully expect that they will charge a different price is you also elect to make your car available on the Tesla-Network. 
Either a completely different price or a discount or reduction if purchased with the Network. Maybe even a discount program for "Network time"?


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## EinSV (Nov 16, 2017)

Gene Munster, who was a very well regarded Apple analyst for many years, recently estimated that Model 3 owners who put a self driving Tesla on the Tesla Network would earn an average of $7659/year in income after electricity, insurance, maintenance, depreciation, etc. He assumes Tesla keeps 10% of that, so the owner would earn about $6900/year.

That would basically cover the lease payment so you would essentially get a free car (assuming FSD at current price of $3K plus $5K for EAP). Not too shabby.

But this assumes the car is only on the network 6 hours a day less than half the days of the year (170 days). Munster also does a calculation for a car on the network basically full time -- 12 hours per day, 320 days per year -- and estimates it would generate $32,032 per year in income. He does this calculation for a hypothetical Tesla corporate fleet so for a private car you would have to subtract whatever portion is shared with Tesla -- if that's roughly 20% call it $25,000/year in income to the owner.

So how much is FSD worth? When operated in a network, easily tens of thousands of dollars. For an individual driver who does not want to share his car with the network, much harder to value.

(This is value -- I think Tesla will want to build its network as fast as possible so it will likely continue to offer FSD relatively cheap so that as many people as possible buy and use it.)

Munster's analysis is here -- http://loupventures.com/teslas-multiple-billion-dollar-ride-sharing-opportunity/ --
his calculations are at the link toward the bottom of the page.


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

EinSV said:


> Gene Munster, who was a very well regarded Apple analyst for many years, recently estimated that Model 3 owners who put a self driving Tesla on the Tesla Network would earn an average of $7659/year in income after electricity, insurance, maintenance, depreciation, etc. He assumes Tesla keeps 10% of that, so the owner would earn about $6900/year.
> 
> That would basically cover the lease payment so you would essentially get a free car (assuming FSD at current price of $3K plus $5K for EAP). Not too shabby.
> 
> ...


One problem with this is it assumes no competition from other autonomous ridesharing. This is about current UberX pricing. Its not sustainable with a human driver but with competition prices will go down. I think Tesla will take a much bigger cut and will spend a lot providing necessary support and infrastructure for the network. Uber takes like 25% and doesn't make money. Tesla will have to provide similar infrastructure or maybe more.


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## EinSV (Nov 16, 2017)

DC Rules said:


> One problem with this is it assumes no competition from other autonomous ridesharing. This is about current UberX pricing. Its not sustainable with a human driver but with competition prices will go down. I think Tesla will take a much bigger cut and will spend a lot providing necessary support and infrastructure for the network. Uber takes like 25% and doesn't make money. Tesla will have to provide similar infrastructure or maybe more.


The exact pricing and Tesla's cut obviously involve some guesswork but even if the estimates are off by a significant amount the car could still generate thousands to tens of thousands of dollars per year for the owner depending on how often it is in the network. In terms of pricing, with Munster's numbers Tesla would be offering something like an uber Select experience for less than the price of an uberX experience, which is about $1/mile for the mileage charge but also includes other added charges (initial fee, service charge, per minute charge) that make the actual average fee per mile higher. http://uberestimate.com/

​


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

EinSV said:


> The exact pricing and Tesla's cut obviously involve some guesswork but even if the estimates are off by a significant amount the car could still generate thousands to tens of thousands of dollars per year for the owner depending on how often it is in the network. In terms of pricing, with Munster's numbers Tesla would be offering something like an uber Select experience for less than the price of an uberX experience, which is about $1/mile for the mileage charge but also includes other added charges (initial fee, service charge, per minute charge) that make the actual average fee per mile higher. http://uberestimate.com/


I'm not trying to throw a wet blanket on this because I'm really excited for this. But economics won't allow people to buy a car for $35k and passively make $20k a year. Otherwise we'd all buy a bunch of Model 3's and retire.


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

So am I reading these comments correctly? Seems like most people are seeing the biggest benefit as being the possibility for ride-share type applications. Anybody see other value?

Dan


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## EinSV (Nov 16, 2017)

DC Rules said:


> I'm not trying to throw a wet blanket on this because I'm really excited for this. But economics won't allow people to buy a car for $35k and passively make $20k a year. Otherwise we'd all buy a bunch of Model 3's and retire.


In the long run I agree prices would come down. In the short run when there are not enough FSD vehicles on the road and there is a demand/supply mismatch that's another story. (For sake of clarity Munster assumes a $60K vehicle, which is equivalent to a Model 3 with LR/PUP/EAP/FSD etc., but I think your comment still applies).


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

Dan Detweiler said:


> Anybody see other value?


Personally I can't see myself putting any of my cars in a ride sharing network but will likely be a user. Despite that I will very likely get FSD at some point for a number of reasons. To be one of the first with revolutionary technology. It should be safer, less stressful, and more relaxing. To use when I shouldn't be driving after drinking or while tired. To eliminate the need for a second car. May also take more road trips instead of flying but that one hinges more on @John getting that self driving RV out there.



EinSV said:


> In the short run when there are not enough FSD vehicles on the road and there is a demand/supply mismatch that's another story.


Good point. I suppose they could decide to try to make it so appealing that the majority of Tesla owner do it to try to gain all of the marketshare while everyone else is scaling up and to drive demand for their cars. Timing would have to be right though.


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## Soda Popinski (Mar 28, 2018)

The promise of FSD is the driving reason I'm getting a Model 3. So, I guess I'm willing to pay $35,000 + $8,000 for it. But, while I'm at it, might as well get the LR and PUP...

How much is 2 extra hours a day of life I'll sort of get back?


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## ng0 (Apr 11, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> So am I reading these comments correctly? Seems like most people are seeing the biggest benefit as being the possibility for ride-share type applications. Anybody see other value?
> 
> Dan


I'm so so so excited about the idea of FSD. Like others, I can't imagine putting my new model 3 on a ride sharing network (though maybe I'll change my tune when it gets older). I drive at least a half hour each way to work and back when there's no traffic and sometimes as much as an hour and a half total. To get to sit back and relax/sleep/play games/chat with people/etc for that amount of time each day with no loss of productivity or concerns is priceless!


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