# Full Self Drive, when? updates?



## Musicman (May 12, 2018)

Just satisfying my own curiosity, anyone here know just how far off full self drive is? a year? 3 years? 5 years?

Not complaining... Paid $11k for full self drive 16 months ago when I got the car after a 26 month wait and haven't heard anything anywhere about when this might be a reality. 

Are there plans for Tesla to do anything special for those of us who haven't used a feature we paid for for years?


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## sduck (Nov 23, 2017)

All any of us can do is guess.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Musicman said:


> Are there plans for Tesla to do anything special for those of us who haven't used a feature we paid for for years?


There are a few things.

First, we get updated to v3 hardware at no additional cost.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1111762533520531456
We also are among the first to receive new software updates.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1177235772857970688


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## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

Here is my updated timeline (guess):

~ October 2019 we can summon our cars in a parking lot and drive miles and miles on NOA!
~ v3 hardware upgrades to begin first quarter 2020
~ shortly after that stop sign and stop light recognition roll out allowing very limited city self driving
~ late in 2020 the car is truly "feature complete"
~ early 2021 the car is self driving including turning left at big intersections, etc. However it is still listed as in "beta and my require human intervention"
~ 2022 robo-taxis and cars without steering wheels are allowed by regulators


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## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

2022 could be a bit optimistic, but also could be about right. I think what Elon ultimately means when he says feature complete in 2019 or 2020 is that under normal circumstances, it can drive itself and do a good job with it. All of the infinite corner cases would still require intervention. All of those things would get better over time and at some point, we’d finally toss the steering wheel into the river. Not terribly unlike how right now, the car can essentially drive itself on normal stretches of highway with the only real intervention being hands on steering wheel.


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## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

Mr. Spacely said:


> Here is my updated timeline (guess):
> 
> ~ October 2019 we can summon our cars in a parking lot and drive miles and miles on NOA!
> ~ v3 hardware upgrades to begin first quarter 2020
> ...


I am in complete agreement with your first point.


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## Lgkahn (Nov 21, 2018)

Think it is gonna be a while ...in.my opinion that it why many have left tesla. Musk was promising end of year and it which was totally unobtainable and in left field.


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## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

Lgkahn said:


> Think it is gonna be a while ...in.my opinion that it why many have left tesla. Musk was promising end of year and it which was totally unobtainable and in left field.


First off I don't know what you mean by "many have left Tesla." I hope you aren't suggesting that tons of people are suddenly trading in their cars because Full Self Driving isn't here yet. And secondly Musk said "feature complete" by year end. That doesn't mean cars are driving themselves all over the place and regulators are OK with it. And while Musk may seem to be in left field from time to time with his timelines, everything he has said has come true- including landing rockets on barges and reusing them...


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## Lgkahn (Nov 21, 2018)

By left I mean Tesla employees nit owners


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

Mr. Spacely said:


> Here is my updated timeline (guess):
> 
> ~ October 2019 we can summon our cars in a parking lot and drive miles and miles on NOA!
> ~ v3 hardware upgrades to begin first quarter 2020
> ...


You can update your projection for upgrades, since that has already started at least on a limited basis. At first it was just people in for repair. Then someone on Twitter mentioned they got called in just for the retrofit.


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## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

Per this poll only S and X getting any upgrades. No Model 3 yet:

https://teslaownersonline.com/threads/hardware-3-0-upgrade-poll.14406/#post-259001


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

I agree he said feature complete by the end of this year. Then he thought they would have it safe enough for unmonitored use by the end of 2020 by their standards. To me, feature-complete doesn't have anything to do with how well it works. Since it's their definition I think they will meet that. But what does it mean? They've talked about things like parking in parking ramps without GPS and driving on roads completely snow-covered. Are those features included in feature-complete? Regardless I don't think they will be trying to get regulatory approval by the end of 2020. I think there will be a long tail. Certain problems that are unacceptable will become a challenge and they will feel like they reached a limit in their approach. This will lead them to eventually feel they need a new approach to a particular problem. This will ripple through causing regression in other areas. Rinse and repeat. But the fun part is we get to try it along the way! I can't imagine driving another brand right now. They may offer Level 3 features along the way if they struggle with getting to level 4. I think there will be some more unexpected twists and turns along the way with hardware, features, pricing, and bundling as there has been in the past.


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## GDN (Oct 30, 2017)

Beyond Computer upgrades and stop light / stop sign recognition so many other things will take a few years.

I don't think we'll see a car from anyone allowed on the road without a steering wheel or truly robo taxi for 5 to 7 years minimum. I paid for FSD and would do it again on the next one, but I'm not thinking it will be truly full autonomy for a number of years.

I get encouraged by huge improvements, but then set backs take longer to overcome and tweak. I rarely take a drive, especially on NOA that I"m not thinking about how the car would handle every situation I come upon and have to take over or was glad I could take control. 

Don't confuse any of this with localized self driving because we have that today in very small known areas. If you want to turn a car loose however and let it be full FSD on the roads, it's years away.


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## Smokey S (Sep 30, 2018)

Here is my 2 cents worth: 
1) feature complete will be done by the end of 2020 1 qtr. - just in time for FSD computer upgrades to model 3 and before model Y production begins
2)fully autonomous (level 4) in beta by end of 2021 in certain states, such as Florida, where autonomous driving has become law and there is large percentage of retirees and tourists
3) I believe Tesla will need at least 2-4 billion miles of FSD driving data before it is approved

I use AP and NoA all the time on highway driving, except heavy, bumper to bumper traffic (for NOA) and off main highways even on main roads for AP. NoA still has repeated (and reported bugs) flaws, such as no automatic lane changes for certain interchange merges in the same location, and cancelling lane changes for no reasons in certain interstate highway areas. I believe these problems are related to insufficient processing power and neural network learning issues with hw 2.5.

Good luck Tesla and full speed ahead!


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

Sure, I'll take a swing.

I think by the end of 2020, we will be able to enter an address and the car will take us there. And most of the time we will not have to intervene, though we will know that we will sometimes have to, especially on poorly-marked streets and many parking garages. The car will do a good job of telling us when it needs help.

We won't be allowed to send our cars without anyone inside, even though it's proven that it can make the trip unassisted in all kinds of weather and traffic conditions, including people doing what people do.

There will continue to be no trolley cars or babies harmed by an AI.


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

My experiment begins as I bought "Full Self Driving" Friday afternoon (10/25//19) AFTER selling part of our TSLA holdings:

SR+ Model 3, odometer 15,117 mi, +90% on Autopilot with 'thang' ✊
Very low traction battery capacity loss, 238/240 ~= 0.83%
Quarterly report that a "5%" improvement is coming
Cost avoidance of $6,000 versus future price increase
Positive operational experience:

Basic AutoPilot has already saved us from adverse medical incidents
Auto-steer no longer 'hugs' the inside lanes but sits in the middle
Below 50 mph, default Traffic Aware Cruise Control (TACC) limits to +5 mph
TACC following traffic comes to a complete stop and resumes when lead moves out
360 degree monitored, turn signal initiated lane changes are safe and predictable
NoA (Beta) works but lane suggestions are still a little strange
Summon works for short, 10-30 feet segments
Auto, parallel parking works sometimes
Needs work, operational experience:

Intersections with angled cross street and curved, dashed lane line from left
Left turning intersection can lead to an attempt to drive toward the right-hand corner
TACC _only_ uses Google Map, speed initially without a manual "I want this" speed set option
Does not read speed signs, stop signs, or traffic lights
Driving into sun with shadows can trigger phantom braking
Does not understand new laws to 'use left lane just for passing'
Does not change lanes to maximize distance from stopped police, fire, and shoulder vehicles on either side
Does not change lanes to makes space when traffic merging from on-ramps
Does not also sound horn prior to or part of impact (untested)
So I'll contact Tesla support and ask if buying $6,000 "Full Self Driving" will improve existing functions. In particular, I want full range, parking lot summon and other function of other "Early Adopters". Also, how does the car show I've ordered "Full Self Driving"?

Bob Wilson


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## IPv6Freely (Aug 8, 2017)

I can't imagine its going to be anytime soon. NOA isn't even at a point where I'd actually use it because of some of the decisions it makes.


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## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

IPv6Freely said:


> I can't imagine its going to be anytime soon. NOA isn't even at a point where I'd actually use it because of some of the decisions it makes.


That's odd. I use NOA every day for 90% of my commute...


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Mr. Spacely said:


> That's odd. I use NOA every day for 90% of my commute...


I use NoA, but I don't allow it to change lanes automatically. It makes too many bad decisions for me to allow it to do so.


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## IPv6Freely (Aug 8, 2017)

Mr. Spacely said:


> That's odd. I use NOA every day for 90% of my commute...


I wish I could do that. The car seems to have no idea that I'm in an HOV lane and can't seem to act accordingly. It seems to have no idea that there is an HOV exit ramp at my destination and keeps trying to put me on the normal lanes to exit there instead.



garsh said:


> I use NoA, but I don't allow it to change lanes automatically. It makes too many bad decisions for me to allow it to do so.


Agreed, some of the lane change decisions are... well, just bad. Not only putting the signal on long before there's actually space available, but also doing things that no human would ever do, like getting behind a truck doing 50 a mile before a right-hand exit instead of just driving past the truck first at 80 and then moving over.

But what you said, and my experience, are exactly my point. If NOA isn't good enough yet to actually use, I'm not holding my breath on FSD. As others have mentioned over the past year or so that I've been coming here, I don't treat AP as much more than glorified cruise control and there's more than a couple scenarios where I disable it because I've gotten to know my car well enough to know where it's going to have difficulty making decisions.


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## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

Perhaps HOA lanes are part of the problem you're experiencing. We don't have them here. For months now I've driven from home to work without an issue most days. And weekly I drive from work in St. Petersburg to tennis in Bradenton. It is about 25 miles each way, involves toll lanes, bridges, highway changes. The car passes on the left and then gets out of the passing lane. It finds the correct exits and handles it all well...


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## IPv6Freely (Aug 8, 2017)

Mr. Spacely said:


> Perhaps HOA lanes are part of the problem you're experiencing. We don't have them here. For months now I've driven from home to work without an issue most days. And weekly I drive from work in St. Petersburg to tennis in Bradenton. It is about 25 miles each way, involves toll lanes, bridges, highway changes. The car passes on the left and then gets out of the passing lane. It finds the correct exits and handles it all well...


I envy you!


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## StromTrooperM3 (Mar 27, 2019)

Does anyone else besides me think the acceleration upgrade $2000 is a great misdirection from the fact that FSD still shows as being delivered by year end? 12 days remaining....

Yes it can recognize stop signs but not respond nor any action at all to stop lights. Haven't seen any mention of city street in shadow mode or whatever..

Not trying to get off topic but seems like another Tesla tactic to shift focus...

Coming later this year:

Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
Automatic driving on city streets


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## PaulT (Aug 22, 2018)

StromTrooperM3 said:


> Does anyone else besides me think this is a great misdirection from the fact that FSD still shows as being delivered by year end? 12 days remaining....
> 
> Yes it can recognize stop signs but not respond. Haven't seen any mention of city street in shadow mode or whatever..
> 
> ...


i think it is pretty clear that the FSD rollout is going slower than anticipated. I imagine that Tesla was hoping to realize some deferred revenue from FSD this quarter. They had to play a card they were saving...performance boost. But...I am not worried, they have lots of cards to play.


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## StromTrooperM3 (Mar 27, 2019)

PaulT said:


> i think it is pretty clear that the FSD rollout is going slower than anticipated


Then they need to remove this verbiage from the site and stop snaking new customers


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## GDN (Oct 30, 2017)

Standby for at least a preview.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1207865226604863488


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## StromTrooperM3 (Mar 27, 2019)

GDN said:


> Standby for at least a preview.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1207865226604863488


As per just now this is still the verbiage on the order page:
Coming later this year:

Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
Automatic driving on city streets
They aren't promising a *preview* on the order page, they're promising features being delivered in full. This is absolutely misleading and a terrible business practice to continue.

I'll be requesting a refund of my FSD order if these 2 items are not delivered in full feature complete status by 1/1/20


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## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

StromTrooperM3 said:


> I'll be requesting a refund of my FSD order if these 2 items are not delivered in full feature complete status by 1/1/20


Please keep us informed regarding the status of your refund request.


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## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

StromTrooperM3 said:


> Then they need to remove this verbiage from the site and stop snaking new customers


Why should new customers be treated any differently than we were?


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## GDN (Oct 30, 2017)

StromTrooperM3 said:


> As per just now this is still the verbiage on the order page:
> Coming later this year:
> 
> Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
> ...


The good news is that we all know their dates don't always hold up, so we aren't terribly disappointed when they come and go. However we still get up once every 30 days to not much less than sheer delight because we still get new features that we never knew were coming, were never promised and never paid for. I bet Jaguar, Porsche, GM or now even Ford would love to have your money. The problem there is you already know that whatever you drive off the lot with them will never improve one bit, not one bit after the day you take delivery.

I truly wish Tesla was a little better with their dates, but if you think anyone else is better, go grab that time line from Ford now saying when the Mach-E will be delivered and see how many months they miss that by.


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

StromTrooperM3 said:


> As per just now this is still the verbiage on the order page:
> Coming later this year:
> 
> Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
> ...


I definitely agree they should not overpromise on preorder things. They have done this fairly consistently on FSD. Then the pricing games really incentivized people who would have never preordered it. Now people are begging for a hardware upgrade so they can see cones on the screen. It's exciting, its the future but its also the future. If they were done it wouldn't be a preorder. Since they aren't done there is risk. Since its one of the most difficult engineering challenges of our time there is lots of risk.

On the other hand, this recent article says 30-40% of people buy FSD and if they didn't Tesla wouldn't be profitable.


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## Bibs (Jun 9, 2018)

Speaking of confusion over FSD...

We use AP, parallel parking, etc regularly on our M3. My wife is placing a reservation for a Y, and the verbiage for AP vs FSD is making it sound as if we have to pick the FSD option ($7K) in order to get summon, parking, NOA, etc. 









So if we leave it at the "AP only" default, do we end up with no-kidding just autosteer and TACC?

I don't want to pay for "full self-driving" when that depends on years of regulatory adjustments in addition to technical improvements (hence why we didn't opt for it on our M3).

I _do_ want to match the same AP capability that we have on our M3.

So... do I have to shell out $7K, or can I leave it on the default AP?


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## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

I think you answered your own question with the Tesla option details you provided. Without FSD, you will not get summon, autopark, or NOA.


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## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

Bibs said:


> So if we leave it at the "AP only" default, do we end up with no-kidding just autosteer and TACC?
> 
> I don't want to pay for "full self-driving" when that depends on years of regulatory adjustments in addition to technical improvements (hence why we didn't opt for it on our M3).
> 
> I _do_ want to match the same AP capability that we have on our M3


It sounds like what you have is Enhanced Autopilot, which was available through approximately February 2018. It is a hybrid of the two options now available - Autopilot, which is no additional cost, is just auto steer and adaptive cruise control, as you note - or FSD, which is anything more.


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## slacker775 (May 30, 2018)

Bigriver said:


> It sounds like what you have is Enhanced Autopilot, which was available through approximately February 2018.


You mean February 2019.


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## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

slacker775 said:


> You mean February 2019.


Oops, yeah. It's been a long year.


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## IPv6Freely (Aug 8, 2017)

The phone app suggests you don't even get TACC without FSD, which makes me wonder why they even bother making it optional since that's kind of a cornerstone of basic autopilot. Honestly, the Autopilot / Enhanced Autopilot / Full Self-Driving and the various iterations among them and trying to determine what I have, what I need, and when I should upgrade has been one of the most frustrating aspects of Tesla ownership.

Considering I already have all four of the items in this $4000 upgrade with an original EAP package, I have to wonder exactly what I'd be getting for that money.


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## felzano3 (Oct 27, 2018)

what does Basic autopilot provide? if driving on cruise control, does basic autopilot slow you down if the car infront is slowing down? and conversely, will the car accelerate to the cruise control speed when the car in front speeds up? will basic autopilot also change lanes for you when you use the turn signal?


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

Yes, yes, yes.

Traffic aware cruise control holds a user set distance behind leading traffic all the way down to stop and no higher than set. By default it uses the Google map speed and the right hand thumb wheel adjusts speed.

Autosteer keeps in the lane and handles turn signaled changes. There are some lane lines can lead the car to grief.

Bob Wilson


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## FF35 (Jul 13, 2018)

StromTrooperM3 said:


> I'll be requesting a refund of my FSD order if these 2 items are not delivered in full feature complete status by 1/1/20


Good luck. Tesla claims that when you purchase the FSD package, it instantly and permanently changes the configuration of the car. Not saying that's right, just saying that's what they'll tell you.

The chances of you getting a refund is around 0%. You'd probably have to sue to get your money back and you'd probably have around a 1% chance of winnng.


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## StromTrooperM3 (Mar 27, 2019)

FF35 said:


> Good luck. Tesla claims that when you purchase the FSD package, it instantly and permanently changes the configuration of the car. Not saying that's right, just saying that's what they'll tell you.
> 
> The chances of you getting a refund is around 0%. You'd probably have to sue to get your money back and you'd probably have around a 1% chance of winnng.


I've opened a claim with Amex as the horsesh!t reply from Tesla was the car is now better with FSD purchased. However without the installation of HW3 that is false. It is no different than when I got it a year ago regarding what FSD feature provide vs Enhanced Autopilot I bought at delivery. At time of purchase it stated it would be delivered by end of 2019


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## FF35 (Jul 13, 2018)

StromTrooperM3 said:


> I've opened a claim with Amex as the horsesh!t reply from Tesla was the car is now better with FSD purchased. However without the installation of HW3 that is false. It is no different than when I got it a year ago regarding what FSD feature provide vs Enhanced Autopilot I bought at delivery. At time of purchase it stated it would be delivered by end of 2019


Does the Tesla website or any documentation state an exact timeframe to be complete? According to the website, you already have some FSD features.


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## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

FF35 said:


> You'd probably have to sue to get your money back and you'd probably have around a 1% chance of winnng.


This result may vary depending on whether the owner opted out of arbitration within (IIRC) 30 days of delivery. If no opt-out, I would guess less than 1% chance of winning a lawsuit. Have no idea of chance of success at arbitration, but it would be interesting to see such a result. Pass the popcorn....


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

I sold some TSLA in October to buy FSD:

bought FSD at $6k
avoided FSD increase to $7k

sold stock for $6k 
avoided TSLA increase to $7.8k

With perfect, future knowledge, I might have had FSD with an $800 profit ($7.8k - $7k.) In reality, such future knowledge is unknown. In contrast, hindsight is perfect knowledge but we are not able to remake decisions into the past. All you can do is pays your money and takes your chances. Recriminations can be instructive but not always useful.

Bob Wilson


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## Long Ranger (Jun 1, 2018)

felzano3 said:


> what does Basic autopilot provide? if driving on cruise control, does basic autopilot slow you down if the car infront is slowing down? and conversely, will the car accelerate to the cruise control speed when the car in front speeds up?


Basic AP provides Traffic Aware Cruise Control and Autosteer. TACC will slow and speed up as you describe based upon the car in front. You can easily adjust your max speed and following distance with the scroll wheel on the steering wheel. Autosteer will keep you generally centered in your lane



felzano3 said:


> will basic autopilot also change lanes for you when you use the turn signal?


No. The automatic lane change upon turn signal is an Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) feature. EAP is no longer sold and you have to buy the full FSD package to get that feature now.


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## StromTrooperM3 (Mar 27, 2019)

FF35 said:


> Does the Tesla website or any documentation state an exact timeframe to be complete? According to the website, you already have some FSD features.


Yes it says coming later this year. This year is 2019. City driving is not here

Nothing in the listed FSD features are different than what I had with EAP


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## Long Ranger (Jun 1, 2018)

StromTrooperM3 said:


> Yes it says coming later this year. This year is 2019. City driving is not here


Sure it is. You can enable AP and it will allow "automatic driving on city streets" with TACC, autosteer, and auto lane change. Try to run a red light with AP on and it will "recognize and respond" by putting up a warning. Sure, not what any of us have in mind for FSD, but if you want to hold Tesla to their exact "later this year" wording, they could argue it's been delivered.


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## StromTrooperM3 (Mar 27, 2019)

Long Ranger said:


> Sure it is. You can enable AP and it will allow "automatic driving on city streets" with TACC, autosteer, and auto lane change. Try to run a red light with AP on and it will "recognize and respond" by putting up a warning. Sure, not what any of us have in mind for FSD, but if you want to hold Tesla to their exact "later this year" wording, they could argue it's been delivered.


Actually the wording of AP is for highway and limited access roads.

My car has never recognized Red light to date


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## Long Ranger (Jun 1, 2018)

StromTrooperM3 said:


> Actually the wording of AP is for highway and limited access roads.


Right. Yet it actually works on city streets, so Tesla could say they've delivered functionality beyond AP on the highway.

I'm just trying to say that none of us have any kind of contractual commitment from Tesla to deliver FSD by any specific date. And I think it would be really difficult to claim breach of contract based upon a vague feature description "coming later this year" on a web page. But maybe you'll get your refund, go for it.


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## StromTrooperM3 (Mar 27, 2019)

Long Ranger said:


> I'm just trying to say that none of us have any kind of contractual commitment from Tesla to deliver FSD by any specific date


End of 2019 is pretty specific. Any new buyer would claim the same advertised date.

Good news for them is the website doesn't have to be changed for 2020 😂 maybe end of next year 😂

My car doesn't react to stop lights, and Tesla says it's not for City driving officially. Which contradicts everything you actually said


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## ZappCatt (Nov 20, 2019)

bwilson4web said:


> Autosteer keeps in the lane and handles turn signaled changes. There are some lane lines can lead the car to grief.
> 
> Bob Wilson


No, Autosteer(Beta) as included in "Standard Autopilot" does not handle any lane changes. It only attempts to center your car in the lane.

If you are seeing that, it is part of EAS or FSD - (NoA) Navigate on Autopilot


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

ZappCatt said:


> FSD


No problem, I bought FSD a week before the price increase to $7k.

Bob Wilson


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## StromTrooperM3 (Mar 27, 2019)

IPv6Freely said:


> Considering I already have all four of the items in this $4000 upgrade with an original EAP package, I have to wonder exactly what I'd be getting for that money.


I was in the same boat as you. FSD will give you the new hw3 computer if you don't already have it, and stop sign and traffic light recognition and actions based on the car being able to "see and react" to these new inputs.

I paid during the 2k sale price with the logic that the custom developed hw3 chip and install is "worth" at least $1000-$1500, including the hardware and install.

I bought EAP back in Dec 2018. Am I clearly understanding your post that you paid $5000 for EAP and now FSD has increased to an additional $4000?

If so, honestly I don't see the very beginning stages{next year or two} of "city driving" being worth 4k. If you intend to keep the car say 5 more years and the FSD price will continue to creep up 1k a year during that timeframe then _maybe_ I could justify it now. But 4k is a lot to swallow on a grey timeline of deliverables(including federal regulations). Jury is still out on how the 3s will hold up 5 years down the road. Yes the motors and drivetrain, battery will be fine. I'm talking about the interior components, screen, seats, power tilt/telescope, creaks and rattles etc.

I'm not too sure at this point I'd feel comfortable keeping a Tesla out of warranty for the reasons stated above


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