# Getting Tesla and Others Back to work



## James Vanderzon (Mar 28, 2020)

Simultaneously Creating a Healthy Herd Immunity and Healthy Economy with COVID-19

Quals: BS Aerospace Engineer, MS Econ, Small Business Owner 30 employees, $40M, Internet Security
The main desire is to start a conversation from ground zero on how do we protect the health of the nation and the health of the economy simultaneously while we get to the other side of Covid-19 over the next 6 to 12 months with both intact. Things to consider before starting the conversation around a solution:
1) We are not going to social welfare/tax cut or any other government program around a floundering $20 TN economy. $2TN package is 5 weeks.
2) We need fruits and vegetables, we need to buy and sell cars, we need to continue to produce, entertainment, construction projects
3) Blow up the 40 hour work week, start with only industries in place, with employees and the need to get 330M people to herd immunity with a functioning economy
4) What is the normal incubation from sick to recovery time line, I am assuming 3 weeks, could be 4 or 5 weeks
5) Achieve the best economy we can while allowing for slow incremental progress work/sick/immunity.
6) Create certainty in both the population and in the market place. A long-term solution

This is a math problem; We want to attain herd immunity but that only comes in two manners, being sick and getting healthy or a vaccine, which is months away.

Manufacturing/Production/Entertainment

Starting point: these can all be done in 2 x 50% employment shifts over 3 weeks (or 33%/33%/33%?). Instead of working 8 hrs. x 5 days x 6 wks. = 240 hours, now we work 10 hrs. x 7 days x 3 wks. = 210 hrs., then cloister/test this 50% for 3 weeks, numerically 87.5% as efficient. Now the next 50% (or 33%) go to work for 3 weeks. When you are working you can go shopping, dining, entertainment, etc., so those industries also survive. This greatly reduces the numbers being exposed while working, and every 3 weeks we have a reset of who is in the work force and a lower starting point for those working who are viral.

Services

This labor force can work remotely quite easily but they also do quite a bit of face to face meetings. Going F2F, if also maintained in 3-week intervals, will have the same effect. Individuals will have to avoid gaming the system.
Airlines, Hotels, Entertainment and Restaurants will now be able to adjust their demand expectations and employ in 3 week shifts accordingly.
This provides the beginning of a much clearer long-term solution with the economy functioning at above 75% capacity. This might not be the right solution but it is the right starting point for a solution. We cannot have social welfare solve this problem and we cannot cloister and hide from this problem. We need to establish a completely different baseline for how employment takes place. How do we produce, create certainty and allow for a safe migration to herd immunity while protecting the economy? The public and the market need to know there is a viable long-term solution. If the numbers are too high, we pivot, adjust, learn.


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

I kept saying from the beginning that since a vaccine is not going to happen anytime soon (or possibly at all), our best hope is to demonstrate either that a certain treatment can lower the death toll significantly, or that it’s naturally much lower than we thought. Once that happens, this virus can be treated just like a bad flu season - you get it, stay home and get better, otherwise business as usual.

The reason that’s important is the politicians in charge are highly reactionary. Every time they add more strict measures to control the virus spread, they expect results in a day or two, when in reality any change would be weeks out. When in a day or two the numbers are going up even faster, we get even more restrictions.

So that’s why demonstrating a reduced death rate is important. Without it, without something very visible that politicians can focus on instead of the infection rate, I’m afraid we’re doomed to staying locked in our homes indefinitely until the virus goes away on its own.


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

2.) we need fruits and vegetables (food and sanitation supplies). We don’t NEED the rest.

3/4.) We don’t know anything about COVID-19 to assume herd immunity is an option. There are reports out of China that re-infections are occurring. As it stands, till we know more about it, the shutdown will have to stay in place. And arguing otherwise is literally selling human lives for money.

5/6.) Stability isn’t achievable if people think they or someone they care about is going to die.

10hr shifts for 3 weeks straight!? Do you realize your “math” is being applied to PEOPLE not machines!? Stress, over exertion, and suicide will probably kill more people than the virus would.

And your “every 3 weeks we have a reset of who is in the work force” gave me chills. The idea that we purposefully spread the virus and those that don’t survive are just categorized as “not part of the workforce anymore”.

To be clear, I’m just trying to have a discussion and am just typing up my thoughts while cooped up inside for the entire weekend 😔


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## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

Testing is the key. Something like this is the most hopeful thing I've read in weeks. We've got to be able to quickly determine who has it and isolate immediately. And isolation cannot be returning home to their family of 12. They have to isolate from all immediate family members.
https://apple.news/A9kJNsRkJQlye5TY8G26RiQ


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

shareef777 said:


> 3/4.) We don't know anything about COVID-19 to assume herd immunity is an option. There are reports out of China that re-infections are occurring. As it stands, till we know more about it, the shutdown will have to stay in place. And arguing otherwise is literally selling human lives for money.


I apologize in advance to any of you who are wealthy enough that your house and car is fully paid for, and you can afford to live for years without active income, and be just fine, because this reply is going to be a waste of your time to read.

There is currently no vaccine, and no known treatment for this virus. Promises of vaccines that will solve the problem are not something to base our strategy on - because there is still a pretty decent chance that in the time it takes to develop them, many of them could be deemed too dangerous for human consumption, or simply completely ineffective. Or mid-way through testing, the virus could significantly mutate, and then they have to start over from scratch. Locking in and hoping for a vaccine right now, you may as well be waiting for Superman or Jesus to save us.

Even if it a vaccine is possible, the FDA says it will take a _minimum _of 18 months for it to be _approved_. It will take an additional year or two to produce enough to give everyone on Earth, and then wait for it to become effective. So keeping everyone in 24/7 quarantine in their homes means a _minimum_ of 3 years locked in. _Keeping the entire country closed for three years. _Even the U.S. government doesn't have the money to simply feed and house all of us for that long. And since it's based on an assumption that isn't reality yet, it could still be a lockdown _forever_.

The reason for the apology above is because of this part...

I've been unsuccessful at negotiating suspended payments from my financers - they're requiring every single payment. I've been laid off work because the company my employer contracts to is closed. I can survive like this for maybe 2 months before I'll have to stop paying the house payment and risk foreclosure and homelessness. And because the Model 3 is also financed by an uncooperative bank, I'm at risk for losing that, too. I have a feeling this is _way_ more common than anyone is saying. There is _no_ government support, _no _support from financers. They're just going to let everyone who isn't very rich, or very poor, collapse.

The company I work for is tiny, and can only survive about 2 months without income, and then I'm permanently without a job, competing with around 1 million Floridians who are also fired during the last week. So if all of that happens because of a year-long quarantine, I will probably never recover from it during my lifetime. The electric car revolution will pass me by. And no, it doesn't make me feel any better to get a pat on the back and a thanks for my sacrifice.


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## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

JasonF said:


> I've been unsuccessful at negotiating suspended payments from my financers - they're requiring every single payment. I've been laid off work because the company my employer contracts to is closed. I can survive like this for maybe 2 months before I'll have to stop paying the house payment and risk foreclosure and homelessness. And because the Model 3 is also financed by an uncooperative bank, I'm at risk for losing that, too. I have a feeling this is _way_ more common than anyone is saying. There is _no_ government support, _no _support from financers. They're just going to let everyone who isn't very rich, or very poor, collapse.


Jason, the $2T relief bill was just signed into law yesterday. If you haven't already, you should apply for unemployment benefits ASAP, and expect it to take a long time since unemployment claims announced Friday were 5x the previous record. Backlog probably doesn't begin to describe what state employment agencies are facing, particularly with social distancing constraints in those offices.

For your mortgage, there could be good news--if your loan has any type of federal guarantee.

*A halt on foreclosures* 
Except for vacant or abandoned properties, lenders of mortgages backed by federal agencies (such as the Department of Agriculture or the Federal Housing Administration), Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae may not execute foreclosures-or foreclosure-related evictions-for 60 days starting March 18.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dimawi...mulus-package-means-for-housing/#4a765ab72b09

If this section applies, this will get you through May. I'm hopeful much economic activity will resume by then. If you can conserve and raise cash, and keep up on your other obligations, I think you have a pretty good shot at having everything under control. Don't despair, and please let us know in a few weeks how things are going.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Bigriver said:


> Testing is the key.


This.
With testing, we can quarantine only those who test positive, along with those they've been in contact with. We don't have to wait for a vaccine. Nor do we have to wait for herd immunity to occur.

South Korea has been successfully using this strategy. They have not had to shut down any schools or businesses, except for isolated cases where an office had to be quarantined. And the graph below shows that this strategy is working.


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

Dr. J said:


> Jason, the $2T relief bill was just signed into law yesterday. If you haven't already, you should apply for unemployment benefits ASAP, and expect it to take a long time since unemployment claims announced Friday were 5x the previous record. Backlog probably doesn't begin to describe what state employment agencies are facing, particularly with social distancing constraints in those offices.


Unfortunately, in Florida, contractors don't qualify for any unemployment benefits. I might not be eligible for the stimulus check, either (I'll have to wait and see if I get one).



Dr. J said:


> For your mortgage, there could be good news--if your loan has any type of federal guarantee.


A halt on foreclosures unfortunately does not mean they won't ask me for 2 months' payment at once, or add late fees or penalties. Which means halting now-foreclosure could still mean future-foreclosure. It won't stop me from calling and harassing them, though, because I still have a feeling that they won't offer me any help _until_ I'm past due.



Dr. J said:


> Don't despair, and please let us know in a few weeks how things are going.


If I'm still around and haven't lost internet access, it's a good sign.

EDIT: I didn't want to mention the financers' names above, because I wanted to give them a chance to help without badmouthing them first. Now I will mention one of them for being awesome: Wells Fargo gave me an extra 3 months without penalties on the car loan.


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

The shutdown shouldn’t last more than two months. We don’t need to eliminate the virus, just flatten the curve. We can live with everyone getting it, we just can’t get it all at once. To get it (or a loved one) and go to the hospital and be told sorry we don’t have any beds or ventilators, go home and wait to die, is unconscionable. Economies be damned.

BTW, I have a mortgage, two car payments, and will likely be laid off soon as my employer is in the auto industry. But I still won’t advocate for dealerships to open back up. I’ll make do. It’ll tell all three of those banks to F off. We’re not the only ones they gotta go after. Taking back our homes and cars to flood the market where they’ll be practically worthless is in no ones interest. They’re better off delaying foreclosures/repos for a year then actually collecting it.

With all that said, I do believe the average worker is beyond screwed. The record unemployment rate is going to drive desperation sky high and companies will take advantage of that and find employees willing to work for less.

The wage gap is going to become the “wage chasm.”


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## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

JasonF said:


> Unfortunately, in Florida, contractors don't qualify for any unemployment benefits. I might not be eligible for the stimulus check, either (I'll have to wait and see if I get one).


I think you should file anyway. This article is about Uber/Lyft drivers, but AFAIK a contractor is a contractor is a contractor.

_Experts say that gig workers will likely have to go through their states' unemployment departments to file for the federal relief funds. The states will then determine how much money is owed to them on the state level, though it will be funded by the federal government, and then will add the $600 on top of that, Nightingale said. _

https://fortune.com/2020/03/26/coro...nomy-unemployment-benefits-uber-lyft-drivers/


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

shareef777 said:


> The shutdown shouldn't last more than two months. We don't need to eliminate the virus, just flatten the curve.


If you're trying to flatten the curve to keep hospitals from being overrun, then this is going to last a LOT more than two months, unfortunately.

https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/flattening-the-coronavirus-curve-is-not-enough/

See the blue line below? That's the best estimate of the volume our hospitals can currently handle. Sure, we can raise that somewhat, but doing so takes time, and we're probably not going to raise it to the 10x level that it would need to be at. This is why New York City is already so bad. "Flattening the curve" will give us more time before getting overrun, but we need a different plan in place by then.

What we're doing now is simply buying time. Once we can test everybody (or at least a large percentage of the population), then we can put specific people into strict quarantine while allowing everybody else to go back to normal lives. That will slow down transmission enough to keep hospitals from being overrun.


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

garsh said:


> If you're trying to flatten the curve to keep hospitals from being overrun, then this is going to last a LOT more than two months, unfortunately.
> 
> https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/flattening-the-coronavirus-curve-is-not-enough/
> 
> ...


We're not going to be able to test very many people, even if the tests were available and quick. Simply put, people won't get tested till they feel sick, and by then they'd likely have spread it to others. At $1k+ (AFTER insurance), people won't feel inclined to get the test unless absolutely necessary, especially considering the shaky economy.


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## AutopilotFan (Oct 6, 2018)

JasonF said:


> Unfortunately, in Florida, contractors don't qualify for any unemployment benefits. I might not be eligible for the stimulus check, either (I'll have to wait and see if I get one).


Check again, and KEEP checking. Contractors and self-employed people are eligible for the unemployment benefits in the federal bill. That part was fought for by people who understood how many are in exactly your position, @Jason F .

The whole "herd immunity" plan doesn't prevent healthcare resources from becoming overloaded. That's the part that makes people die when they didn't have to. People who are angrily in mourning for dead loved ones in mass graves aren't going to restart the economy EITHER. If you try to go the "herd immunity" route, you get a whole lot more dead people and a crashed economy *anyway*.


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## Feathermerchant (Sep 17, 2018)

And to those that think pensions are forever so retirees can sit back and quarantine themselves forever, where do you think the money from Pensions comes from? If the economy gets bad enough, pension money will run out. I agree we need to get the economy working again. ASAP while not allowing too many people to die from this.


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## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

shareef777 said:


> We're not going to be able to test very many people, even if the tests were available and quick. Simply put, people won't get tested till they feel sick, and by then they'd likely have spread it to others. At $1k+ (AFTER insurance), people won't feel inclined to get the test unless absolutely necessary, especially considering the shaky economy.


If it is a fast test, it could be administered at work places. Just a part of badging in. Fast like the cholesterol screening done with health fairs at work places. Or peeing into a cup. Required. Depending on how this pandemic goes would depend on frequency that retest is needed.


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

Bigriver said:


> If it is a fast test, it could be administered at work places. Just a part of badging in. Fast like the cholesterol screening done with health fairs at work places. Or peeing into a cup. Required. Depending on how this pandemic goes would depend on frequency that retest is needed.


Let's hope we get to that point. Though there's a non-insignificant amount of workers that are in working minimum wage and/or in small businesses may still have issues with their employers covering such tests. Suppose this leads to a different argument on why we need healthcare for all.


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## Frully (Aug 30, 2018)

It is not a quick nor a non-invasive test. Comparatively to a blood draw it's simple...but it's still a nasal-pharyngeal swab...and not nearly automated on the lab side. Because they are looking for something novel, the testing supplies are still limited. https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/how-is-the-covid-19-virus-detected-using-real-time-rt-pcr 
It's really clever how they do it. Haven't done more than skim that article...but the crappy take-away is the test doesn't say if you have the virus...it says if you have had an immune reaction to the virus. You still test positive long long long after you're cured, and possibly if you have managed to gain immunity via some other sharing of fluids, even if you were never sick.

Tests for the virus itself take a LONG time and are VERY expensive - involving culturing the specimen then doing genetic tests to identify the true bug, not just a rapidly mutating protein.

EARLY heavy testing is very important to develop containment strategies...knowing which restrictions and mitigation strategies are most likely to be most effective. The stuff that politicians can pat themselves on the back for, as described by OP.
Now we are practically 'mid/late game' in terms of spread...and testing won't improve much because it's now past endemic. Now, it's all about containment.


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## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

@Frully the article you posted discusses a different "fast" test (3 hours) vs the article I linked to (5 min) in post #4. I'm not in the medical field; heck, I didn't even like biology class. So I don't have anything to offer about being able to assess the viability of these options. But I do know that if there could be a screening test that could be widely implemented, it could change this awful scenario we are in. It could get people back to work. It could allow travel to resume. It could save lives.


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

garsh said:


> What we're doing now is simply buying time. Once we can test everybody (or at least a large percentage of the population), then we can put specific people into strict quarantine while allowing everybody else to go back to normal lives. That will slow down transmission enough to keep hospitals from being overrun.


Remember that scene in Back to the Future III where Doc Brown is supposed to be shot by Mad Dog Tannen on Monday because of his dead horse, and they're trying to figure out how to get the Delorean up to 88 mph so they can escape to the future? And Doc keeps coming up with things like, "if we can wait until winter, maybe the ice will etc etc..." and Marty keeps reminding him, "Monday! We can't wait until winter, it's Monday!"

That's what I'm talking about when people keep saying that we have to keep people in their homes indefinitely until some new thing comes along to save us from it. We can't keep people in their homes until a vaccine is ready. We can't keep them in their homes until enough tests are available to test every single person on Earth twice over. Because _neither_ of those things are currently possible. There's only a small chance of it happening soon, and it's likely by the time either of those happen, the virus will have already hit critical mass and it will be too late. Then, quite literally, the only choice is either let it go, or keep everyone in their homes indefinitely until the virus disappears completely on its own. That could literally take years, because there are only so many months of immunity.



AutopilotFan said:


> The whole "herd immunity" plan doesn't prevent healthcare resources from becoming overloaded. That's the part that makes people die when they didn't have to. People who are angrily in mourning for dead loved ones in mass graves aren't going to restart the economy EITHER. If you try to go the "herd immunity" route, you get a whole lot more dead people and a crashed economy *anyway*.


Possibly, but what I'm saying is, do we really have a choice? We really can't all stay in our homes indefinitely until it either goes away, or some indeterminate future thing comes along to save us (which may be too late anyhow). We can only count on what we have right now.


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

Personally, GM, Ford, FCA, VW, Toyota, and Honda should be reopened. This will ensure Tesla success. BTW, Panasonic needs to rethink if they want Tesla to establish their own battery manufacture.

Bob Wilson


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

JasonF said:


> We can't keep them in their homes until enough tests are available to test every single person on Earth twice over.


Ok, I was severely exaggerating when I said we need to be able to test everybody. We don't have to test everybody.

South Korea is testing about 4000 of every million people. We just need to increase our testing to match this capability.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

They approved the first test back on Feb 7!

People who were in contact with somebody who tests positive are instructed to quarantine themselves for two weeks and take their temperatures regularly throughout that time - no testing needed for them. Just assume they're at high risk and quarantine them, and check in on them every day. This is what we need to emulate in order to get back to something close to normalcy.

Read here for more info:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success#


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

garsh said:


> People who were in contact with somebody who tests positive are instructed to quarantine themselves for two weeks and take their temperatures regularly throughout that time - no testing needed for them. Just assume they're at high risk and quarantine them, and check in on them every day. This is what we need to emulate in order to get back to something close to normalcy.


Koreans, like Japanese, are more respective of authority, which is why the infection rate in Japan is so low. They will all follow government instructions.

And the other problem is that sort of method doesn't scale up. In most medium to large cities/counties, there is such a huge police shortage that they don't even respond to traffic crashes anymore. There are definitely not enough to go door-to-door and locate people who are sick or exposed, and make sure they stay quarantined. Unfortunately in this country that would require imprisoning anyone who has potentially been exposed, possibly for months, because you can only keep a close eye on them if they're all in one place.

You can kind of see that result now, because most places now have _everyone_ imprisoned in their homes at once at the moment. What worries me is that there isn't a plan for "after that". There really are no acceptable stricter measures*. All more testing can do right now is show us just how horrible the numbers really are, because there is no treatment or vaccine we can give all of those infected people to stop it. So I'm worried that the plan is just "stay in your homes forever until we come up with a better plan". And it could very well be forever if this virus never tapers off, and just keeps going in cycles as natural immunity declines.

* - I suppose if you want to go full scifi, you could propose killing or imprisoning forever anyone who might be infected to protect the rest of the population, but that's no better than waiting for herd immunity.


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## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

JasonF said:


> * - I suppose if you want to go full scifi, you could propose killing or imprisoning forever anyone who might be infected to protect the rest of the population, but that's no better than waiting for herd immunity.


 Killing forever? Kind of harsh, No? <grin>

Are the infected dead bodies contagious? Cremation required? How do we transport to the funace?

What about the exposed guards that monitor the imprisoned? Test positive and never get to leave the prison(s)??

Has anyone tested real silver bullets against COVID-19? Just a thought.


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

JasonF said:


> Koreans, like Japanese, are more respective of authority, which is why the infection rate in Japan is so low. They will all follow government instructions.
> 
> And the other problem is that sort of method doesn't scale up. In most medium to large cities/counties, there is such a huge police shortage that they don't even respond to traffic crashes anymore. There are definitely not enough to go door-to-door and locate people who are sick or exposed, and make sure they stay quarantined. Unfortunately in this country that would require imprisoning anyone who has potentially been exposed, possibly for months, because you can only keep a close eye on them if they're all in one place.
> 
> ...


It seems that the "plan" is to order everyone stay home till we start seeing less people showing up to hospitals with confirmed cases till we eventually get the new patients to be low enough that major hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Take a look at the chart here:

https://topic.newsbreak.com/covid-19.html

The curve may be flattening already and is looking promising after "just" 1 month. Obviously with the lack of testing we don' know how accurate the confirmed count truly is and it may take a another month of lockdown to verify. But if everyone stays home for another month and recovers on their own, then I can see the lockdowns lifted. But if it's still constant growth then we're in a world of trouble.


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## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

Klaus-rf said:


> Has anyone tested real silver bullets against COVID-19? Just a thought.


I'm sure the internet has comparisons of Coors Light vs. Corona. Would that do?


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## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

Dr. J said:


> I'm sure the internet has comparisons of Coors Light vs. Corona. Would that do?


 Hmmm ...

https://www.blackenterprise.com/coo...king-remotely-ad-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak/


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

JasonF said:


> There are definitely not enough to go door-to-door and locate people who are sick or exposed, and make sure they stay quarantined.


You don't need police to go door-to-door. You tell people why they need to quarantine themselves. Someone (health care workers, or volunteers) is assigned to call the quarantined once per day and check in on them. That's all.

Sure, there might be one or two lunatics who don't cooperate, and that's when you get the police involved. But telling a few people to quarantine themselves isn't worse than making the entire population of a free country "shelter in place".


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