# Coronavirus (COVID-19), what can we do?



## garsh

Comparing COVID-19 to "the flu". Realize that a large percentage of the population gets vaccinated against the flu, and others are immune due to having contracted a particular strain in the past, while we have no vaccine for COVID-19, and started out with nobody being immune. So expect COVID-19 to be worse than seasonal flu when it has finished spreading this year. To give you some idea of what that means:

*Infections*​*COVID-19*: Approximately 800,049 cases worldwide; 164,610 cases in the U.S. as of Mar. 31, 2020.*​*Flu*: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.​​*Deaths*​*COVID-19*: Approximately 38,714 deaths reported worldwide; 3,170 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 31, 2020.*​*Flu*: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.​
(source: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu)

We've got a ways to go before COVID-19 is as bad as the flu. And it's going to end up being worse than the flu when this is done.

Until a vaccine is developed, we can't stop it. We can only hope to slow it down so that our hospitals don't run out of capacity to care for the critical cases. Normally, a bit of "herd immunity" keeps a flu in check enough to not overwhelm hospitals, but we don't have that going for us yet. So we practice "social distancing" instead to greatly bring down the transmission rate.


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## msjulie

I am heartened a little by some feedback of treatments, to be seen of course


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## MelindaV

Zak said:


> The actual flu death rate is .1% (most stats overexedurate the flu stats) sometimes flu is written as cause of death when there is no other easily identified cause. I know of one personally!
> 
> Covid19 is wild! It is a SARS CORONAVIRUS. It's so novel (4 month old) that we don't fully know what it does or how it does it. But so far Italys death rate is 9% and USA death rate is 2%. This will go up, unfortunately. Stay Home!


this really is the kicker. not the actual number of cases but the conversion of a case to become a death.

based on the worldwide numbers @garsh included in the OP, flu is closer to .03% death rate, and COVID-19 is 4.8%. that is *16x higher death rate* from COVID-19 than the flu.

one of our local news channels/websites gives a statewide update each day that lists the new diagnosed cases and new deaths. with each death, they list the county, age and if they had a prior health issue and the date they were diagnosed. here's the update from today:


> OHA reported three additional deaths from the virus on Monday.
> A 91-year-old man in Yamhill County died Sunday after testing positive March 20. An 80-year-old man in Clackamas County died Sunday after testing positive March 22. A 91-year-old man in Linn County died Sunday after testing positive March 15.
> 
> In each case, the patients had prior underlying medical conditions, according to OHA.


makes you wonder if they will continue doing this, or if the novelty of reporting these will wear off and they move on to something else next week/month/year.


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## JasonF

I agree with "flattening the curve" because it has scientific basis and something of a plan. What worries me, though, is it's _politically_ too difficult to explain, which means most of the people who run things are embracing keeping us in our homes until every last case disappears. They have no plan - they're just hoping it happens mysteriously in the next 2 weeks....and then the next 2 after that, etc. In the end, China is _still_ waiting for every last case to disappear. It may never actually happen.

And I fear those who push for keeping us all in our homes until a vaccine is distributed - because that claim a vaccine will be available in 18 to 24 months doesn't count the fact that 6 billion of them have to be made, and then all those people actually have to be vaccinated. Best case scenario would be 3-4 years to full immunity against this virus. Worst case is _still_ that the vaccine might fail its trials, and then it could be a decade or more as they have to return to research phase with very little money - because the world economy would be very broken.

At some point, as tragic as loss of life is, we're going to have to stop somewhere in the middle, somewhere between "flatten the curve" and "keep everyone locked up until it's gone". Understand that we don't have the power to save every last one of those lives, and that it's irresponsible to destroy all of society to try and save them. Poverty and economic collapse cause far more deaths than a virus ever will, it will only take longer.

Sobering thought: At the end of April, around 1 million people will be unemployed in Florida. About 1/3 to half of them will be former employees of companies that collapsed because they had no income and couldn't pay the bills. And probably another 1/3 will remain unemployed when things reopen because the companies that survived won't be able to afford to re-employ them all right away. So that means just from a month and a half of this, there could be 300,000 newly unemployed fighting over very few jobs in a collapsing tourist industry.


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## MelindaV

JasonF said:


> And I fear those who push for keeping us all in our homes until a vaccine is distributed - because that claim a vaccine will be available in 18 to 24 months doesn't count the fact that 6 billion of them have to be made, and then all those people actually have to be vaccinated. Best case scenario would be 3-4 years to full immunity against this virus. Worst case is _still_ that the vaccine might fail its trials, and then it could be a decade or more as they have to return to research phase with very little money - because the world economy would be very broken.


just like the flu vaccine though, you would want to get the vulnerable people vaccinated first. you don't need to expect to cover 100% of the population with the vaccine immediately, just those people likely to die from it. then follow up covering the next set of the population as more doses become available, and on down the line.


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## Zek

*France has ordered over 1 billion face masks!!! We can do this*


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## garsh

South Korea has shown us a solution that works:

*Thorough testing, combined with quarantining those who test positive and everyone they were in contact with.*
If you do this...

Everybody else can get back to their lives. Get back to work, and get back to school
The hospitals are able to handle the case load.
The death rate drops down to less than 1%.



garsh said:


> With testing, we can quarantine only those who test positive, along with those they've been in contact with. We don't have to wait for a vaccine. Nor do we have to wait for herd immunity to occur.
> 
> South Korea has been successfully using this strategy. They have not had to shut down any schools or businesses, except for isolated cases where an office had to be quarantined. And the graph below shows that this strategy is working.
> View attachment 33018





garsh said:


> South Korea is testing about 4000 of every million people. We just need to increase our testing to match this capability.
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/
> 
> They approved the first test back on Feb 7!
> 
> People who were in contact with somebody who tests positive are instructed to quarantine themselves for two weeks and take their temperatures regularly throughout that time - no testing needed for them. Just assume they're at high risk and quarantine them, and check in on them every day. This is what we need to emulate in order to get back to something close to normalcy.
> 
> Read here for more info:
> https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success#


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## garsh

Zak said:


> .But so far Italys death rate is 9% and USA death rate is 2%.





MelindaV said:


> based on the worldwide numbers @garsh included in the OP, flu is closer to .03% death rate, and COVID-19 is 4.8%


Some of these death rates for COVID-19 are exaggerated simply because we aren't testing all that many people.

Last I saw, South Korea's death rate for COVID-19 was around 0.5%. But they have much more thorough testing than most countries.


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## MelindaV

garsh said:


> South Korea has shown us a solution that works:
> 
> Thorough testing, combined with quarantining those who test positive, and everyone they were in contact with.
> If you do this...
> 
> Everybody else can get back to their lives. Get back to work, and get back to school
> The hospitals are able to handle the case load.
> The death rate drops down to less than 1%.


but in this country, a sizable amount of the population would see a mandatory test as an invasion of their privacy, and would not do it. (look at how some protest the census). Those people would still be walking around petri dishes.


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## iChris93

Zak said:


> Very simple solution to all of this:
> Every single person must wear a mask!
> No mask = $500 fine (fine is used to buy maks and give them out to the comunity) it's cheaper and simpler solution then $1200 checks.
> 
> Just imagine if we send every American a box of masks ($20) in January or February or March! $20 is cheaper than $1200 plus a 2 trillion bailout and all the death and suffering.
> I can hear people say that we can't do that, please take a look at Korea


There is no consensus on whether masks work for the general population and might make things worse as people are constantly adjusting them.


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## Zek

iChris93 said:


> There is no consensus on whether masks work for the general population and might make things worse as people are constantly adjusting them.


Chris let's not spread misinformation please. Masks work 99% of the time to keep things in!!! And 90% to keep things out. sick people in Japan wear them as a social Responsibility to keep others healthy. Think about having a tremendous American pride! All one has to do is stay home or wear a mask! No need for anything else. This solution is so simple and so cheap that it's a travesty that we are still talking about it.


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## iChris93

Zak said:


> Chris let's not spread misinformation please. Masks work 99% of the time to keep things in!!! And 90% to keep things out. sick people in Japan wear them as a social Responsibility to keep others healthy. Think about having a tremendous American pride! All one has to do is stay home or wear a mask! No need for anything else. This solution is so simple and so cheap that it's a travesty that we are still talking about it.


I'm not trying to spread misinformation.

Here is a pretty good summary of the mask debate. https://www.vox.com/2020/3/31/21198132/coronavirus-covid-face-masks-n95-respirator-ppe-shortage

Masks may offer some protection so its better than nothing but N95 respirators would be better. With that said, both masks and N95 respirators should be saved for health workers right now.


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## JasonF

MelindaV said:


> just like the flu vaccine though, you would want to get the vulnerable people vaccinated first. you don't need to expect to cover 100% of the population with the vaccine immediately, just those people likely to die from it. then follow up covering the next set of the population as more doses become available, and on down the line.


That's true, but even the vulnerable population is about 1 billion vaccines. Even with every biotech company in the world required to manufacture nothing _but_ those vaccines, it would still take nearly a year to get enough.

The flu vaccine needs 6 months lead time to manufacture enough doses just for the U.S. - and only about 25%-30% actually get one, which is maybe a couple hundred thousand. That's why it misses its target sometimes, and we get one that doesn't align with the currently circulating flu, because they had to detect it in the southern hemisphere 6 months ago and hope it's the same one that ends up here.



MelindaV said:


> but in this country, a sizable amount of the population would see a mandatory test as an invasion of their privacy, and would not do it. (look at how some protest the census). Those people would still be walking around petri dishes.


Testing is good, but the problem is we don't have enough test kits or lab capacity, and it's only going to get worse as the cases increase. We might never have that much capacity, so keeping people locked up until there are enough tests isn't a viable option either.

The same for masks. There simply aren't enough to require people wear them all the time.


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## Zek




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## BluestarE3

iChris93 said:


> Masks may offer some protection so its better than nothing but N95 respirators would be better. With that said, both masks and N95 respirators should be saved for health workers right now.


I think that's behind some of the "don't bother with a face mask, it won't help and may even hurt" narrative for the general population. It's to dissuade people with low risk of exposure from using up the limited supply and leaving those in high risk occupations on the front line without protection. A nurse friend of ours sent out a plea for masks and material to make masks because her hospital is out. Luckily we had some N95s left over from the wildfires here last fall and my wife had some leftover fabric that we were able to donate. A family member is an ER doctor in a lesser affected part of the country, but even there, people were stealing masks and gowns from the hospital supply room.

Ideally, there should be enough masks to go around so that everyone who wants to can wear them. Even if masks are completely ineffective in keeping the virus in or out, at least they can help keep (or serve to remind) wearers from touching their faces with their hands. Unfortunately, we are nowhere close to being able to supply such large quantities, so they need to be prioritized for those with the greatest need.

In the meantime...


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## iChris93

BluestarE3 said:


> Even if masks are completely ineffective in keeping the virus in or out, at least they can help keep (or serve to remind) wearers from touching their faces with their hands.


I think part of the problem is that the masks can have the opposite effect and make people touch their faces more often. Proper education on mask wearing would be required.


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## BluestarE3

iChris93 said:


> I think part of the problem is that the masks can have the opposite effect and make people touch their faces more often. Proper education on mask wearing would be required.


Yes, I've heard that argument and, while it's certainly a possibility, I think the benefits outweigh this potential risk. When seatbelts were first required in cars, I remember hearing the argument that it's safer not to be wearing a seatbelt in the event of an accident because, this way, you may get thrown clear from a burning vehicle instead of being restrained within it. Sure, it's a possibility, but it's remote.

While masks are in short supply, I can't argue with the need to tell the general populace they don't need to wear them and to present the reasoning behind that recommendation so as not to divert their availability from those who need them the most. However, if someone already has a mask or once masks become more readily available, I think it would be a disservice to continue recommending against its general use.


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## Klaus-rf

BluestarE3 said:


> While masks are in short supply, I can't argue with the need to tell the general populace they don't need to wear them and to present the reasoning behind that recommendation so as not to divert their availability from those who need them the most.


 To be clear: N95 masks are said to be in short supply while the masks pictured above (https://teslaownersonline.com/threads/coronavirus-covid-19-what-can-we-do.15953/post-280106) are most plentiful.

This is an interesting read:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidd...pandemic-this-is-what-i-learned/#efb5dc6af6a2


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## garsh

MelindaV said:


> but in this country, a sizable amount of the population would see a mandatory test as an invasion of their privacy, and would not do it. (look at how some protest the census). Those people would still be walking around petri dishes.


First, I can't imagine people would think the current situation of requiring the entire population to "stay at home" is much better for a freedom-loving people.

But second, you don't have to require testing for everybody. Just require testing for people who are trying to enter places where people will be congregating. So every school or workplace will require that you be tested once a week or so before you're permitted to enter. People who prefer not to take the test can quarantine for two weeks maybe?



JasonF said:


> Testing is good, but the problem is we don't have enough test kits or lab capacity, and it's only going to get worse as the cases increase. We might never have that much capacity, so keeping people locked up until there are enough tests isn't a viable option either.


There has been some good news on this front.
ABBOTT LAUNCHES MOLECULAR POINT-OF-CARE TEST TO DETECT NOVEL CORONAVIRUS IN AS LITTLE AS FIVE MINUTES

The FDA is fast-tracking these tests. Basically, if the science behind them is reasonable, they're not going to bother requiring the usual rigorous validations.
This thing is the size of a toaster and gives results in five minutes. I see no reason why we couldn't put some of the country's large manufacturers to work cranking these things out like we have with ventilators.


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## BluestarE3

garsh said:


> There has been some good news on this front.
> ABBOTT LAUNCHES MOLECULAR POINT-OF-CARE TEST TO DETECT NOVEL CORONAVIRUS IN AS LITTLE AS FIVE MINUTES
> 
> The FDA is fast-tracking these tests. Basically, if the science behind them is reasonable, they're not going to bother requiring the usual rigorous validations.
> This thing is the size of a toaster and gives results in five minutes. I see no reason why we couldn't put some of the country's large manufacturers to work cranking these things out like we have with ventilators.


Well, I'm glad it's not Theranos coming out with this device.


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## JasonF

garsh said:


> The FDA is fast-tracking these tests. Basically, if the science behind them is reasonable, they're not going to bother requiring the usual rigorous validations.
> This thing is the size of a toaster and gives results in five minutes. I see no reason why we couldn't put some of the country's large manufacturers to work cranking these things out like we have with ventilators.


That sounds promising; However, we both know from watching Tesla in action that the hardest part of manufacturing is scaling up. There is a very slim chance that the manufacturers will be able to scale up quickly enough to beat the virus' current predicted peak infection. And even if that peak can be delayed, it could mean several months more of quarantine as the factories basically learn to make something they haven't made before at massive scale, and then figure out how to distribute it, and then also set up a testing infrastructure. Even the military lacks the practice to pull that off at such a huge scale.

So I would be more likely to call that something that will help in the fall, when the 2nd round begins. Right now, though, we have to work with what we actually have at the moment.


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## Zek

A little about masks


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## garsh

Good news: potential cure created.
Bad news: "[if] we see the drug is safe and helpful, we could start releasing it *for compassionate use* in *September*."

Source:
'Pandemic' scientist says his team has discovered potential cure for COVID-19


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## Zek




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## garsh

Zak said:


> Sorry this story is very misleading! No cure, treatment or vaccine has ever been found for SARs


Sound more like a protein(?) that attaches to the virus, thereby blocking it from functioning correctly.
https://www.distributedbio.com/covid19


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## iChris93

Zak said:


> This is not how medical science works.


I think Dr. Glanville knows how medical science works. https://www.distributedbio.com/jacob


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## orekart

All the casinos are closed (and as they turn off their power so too are the attached charging stations) in Reno NV USA. Most are L2 destination connectors but closures do include the V3 Supercharger nearest I-80 interstate highway.

However I guess the petrol stations stay open?

Glad I can make those electrons dance with some solar panels at home on the ranch... although notably city folk are treating this as an excuse to congregate on public lands shooting guns all hours night and day and dirt bike / 4x4 rally in the hills. Business as usual for most $10/hr earners where the "essential service" company arbitrarily cuts hours and makes you trade your health and well-being for a paycheck that barely covers basic rent, food, and healthcare insurance.

If you aren't stressed out about getting sick and dying suddenly or worse yet surviving and not having the means to pay for the hospital bill, or worse even still not having the opportunity to "get a haircut, get a job, hippie!" because $10/hr "essential service" employers are the only possibilities on the job market... let me remind you unaffected dandies that unemployment insurance for reasons of a global pandemic is nowhere close to making up the shortfall for a middle-income earner (the type that just scraped enough together for say a Model 3 or Model Y) recently laid off without notice. Enjoy your sanitizing sprays and N95 mask stockpile while you walk your teacup poodle and check the mailbox at the end of your long driveway in a P100D or whatever it is you do. 

Look to the reduction of air pollution in dense cities where ICE operation has been reduced by shelter-in-place orders.

This all now sounds like a reality check on the world we have inherited and will leave worse-off three generations from now, an unhospitable mess of an environment that sees fit to keep exploiting the vulnerable masses.

It is complete fantasy that you as an individual will somehow avoid contracting this virus before both a treatment is developed and proven safe, and a vaccine is administered. No one is immune.

On a personal note, this "flu" is something you might have had already and thought "that's weird, I'm sneezing a lot and food doesn't taste so good today" and then it went away after maybe a fever and a persistent cough. Congratulations! You just infected half the people with whom you've interacted in a 3ft radius of. Also, you're a carrier when you get re-infected and even less symptomatic because of immunity developed while being sick. Your ability to cripple the national healthcare system and kill 2 people out of every 100 you talk to is at a heigtened level! 

Thankfully soap and water have been around for quite some time... wash your hands and practice the normal and sensible risk-adverse behaviors to stay out of hospital (and debt collectors' speed-dial) for as long as possible.


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## iChris93

Zak said:


> Science is an evidence-based discipline, that requires peer review to validate.


I know. And Dr. Granville has published is some of the most respected peer-reviewed journals. 


Zak said:


> The news article is misguided at best and is a feal good story.


True. Trust the science, not the sensationalism .


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## iChris93

Zak said:


> Please post a link to a his publication of SARs therapy that's been proven effective in vivo and in Vitro.


Please link to a post where I claimed that he had a SARS therapy that was effective.


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## Klaus-rf

orekart said:


> All the casinos are closed (and as they turn off their power so too are the attached charging stations) in Reno NV USA. Most are L2 destination connectors but closures do include the V3 Supercharger nearest I-80 interstate highway.
> 
> However I guess the petrol stations stay open? No closures I've seen for "freedom fuel" (sarc mark).
> 
> Glad I can make those electrons dance with some solar panels at home on the ranch... although notably city folk are treating this as an excuse to congregate on public lands shooting guns all hours night and day and dirt bike / 4x4 rally in the hills. Business as usual for most $10/hr earners where the "essential service" company arbitrarily cuts hours and makes you trade your health and well-being for a paycheck that barely covers basic rent, food, and healthcare insurance.
> 
> If you aren't stressed out about getting sick and dying suddenly or worse yet surviving and not having the means to pay for the hospital bill, or worse even still not having the opportunity to "get a haircut, get a job, hippie!" because $10/hr "essential service" employers are the only possibilities on the job market... let me remind you unaffected dandies that unemployment insurance for reasons of a global pandemic is nowhere close to making up the shortfall for a middle-income earner (the type that just scraped enough together for say a Model 3 or Model Y) recently laid off without notice. Enjoy your sanitizing sprays and N95 mask stockpile while you walk your teacup poodle and check the mailbox at the end of your long driveway in a P100D or whatever it is you do.
> 
> Look to the reduction of air pollution in dense cities where ICE operation has been reduced by shelter-in-place orders.
> 
> This all now sounds like a reality check on the world we have inherited and will leave worse-off three generations from now, an unhospitable mess of an environment that sees fit to keep exploiting the vulnerable masses.
> 
> It is complete fantasy that you as an individual will somehow avoid contracting this virus before both a treatment is developed and proven safe, and a vaccine is administered. No one is immune.
> 
> On a personal note, this "flu" is something you might have had already and thought "that's weird, I'm sneezing a lot and food doesn't taste so good today" and then it went away after maybe a fever and a persistent cough. Congratulations! You just infected half the people with whom you've interacted in a 3ft radius of. Also, you're a carrier when you get re-infected and even less symptomatic because of immunity developed while being sick. Your ability to cripple the national healthcare system and kill 2 people out of every 100 you talk to is at a heigtened level!
> 
> Thankfully soap and water have been around for quite some time... wash your hands and practice the normal and sensible risk-adverse behaviors to stay out of hospital (and debt collectors' speed-dial) for as long as possible.


 To summarize:






"We're all gonna die."


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## Klaus-rf

I'll just leave this here:

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/31/8239...l-the-data-that-led-to-extension-of-guideline


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## Rick Steinwand

Complaining about the administration's handling of Covid is too political? Last I saw THIS was the off-topic area. Not a fan of your censorship.

Now waiting for this to disappear too.


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## iChris93

Rick Steinwand said:


> Complaining about the administration's handling of Covid is too political? Last I saw THIS was the off-topic area. Not a fan of your censorship.
> 
> Now waiting for this to disappear too.


From the forum rules 
"TeslaOwnersOnline.com is not the place for debate on religion, sex, politics..." This includes the off-topic sections.


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## JasonF

Updating this old thread with a reality check from Florida:

I just checked this morning, and the current testing rate in Florida is about 2000 per day. That means testing every single person _once_ would take 34 years. We're 1/3 of the way into April now, and 2 weeks after the claims that a faster test is coming. Even if the number of tests increases ten-fold in the next 2 weeks, it will still take 3.5 years to pull it off - and that's just in Florida. That makes it a _worse_ option than waiting for a possible vaccine to be widely available in 3-5 years.

So while I was willing to entertain the idea of fully testing the entire U.S. population before everyone is allowed out of their homes and back to work, it's simply not viable right at this moment, and I don't see it improving anytime within the next couple of months. Unfortunately that means the only option we have is to take our chances once the first major peak passes, barring some kind of unlikely miracle happening first.


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## BluestarE3

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/world/europe/coronavirus-testing-iceland.html

Iceland is taking a different approach than most other countries in terms of social isolation and testing. Even though they've tested a higher proportion of their population than anywhere else, they won't be able to complete testing of the entire population until year-end. I'd be interested to hear what @KarenRei has to say about daily life there now. As with the 1918 flu and other more recent outbreaks, most of the coverage is on larger countries and cities. We don't often hear how these global pandemics affect more isolated population centers, where even though the absolute number affected may be small, they may represent a large percentage of the population.


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## garsh

JasonF said:


> So while I was willing to entertain the idea of fully testing the entire U.S. population before everyone is allowed out of their homes and back to work...


While we certainly need more testing ability, other countries have shown that we don't actually need to be able to test *everybody* before getting back to work. South Korea has only tested about 1 out of every 100 people, and they haven't shut down businesses at all.

Looking at the chart below, it looks like the U.S. may be quickly catching up to South Korea's testing rate. If so, then hopefully we'll be able to let people get back to work soon (with some additional caveats and precautions in place, of course).

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-cumulative-total-tests-per-thousand


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## BluestarE3

One behavioral change that may help get people back to work sooner is the universal use of face coverings when out in public with other people around. People in Asia have been wearing face masks for years, so it doesn't have the same stigma it does here. When we see a person here with a mask, we assume that person is either contagious and being selfish or is being a hypochondriac, as opposed to being socially responsible and cautious. Now that the recommendation is for people to wear some kind of face covering when in public, hopefully this attitude is changing. Some locales and businesses are already making this a requirement.


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## JasonF

garsh said:


> While we certainly need more testing ability, other countries have shown that we don't actually need to be able to test *everybody* before getting back to work. South Korea has only tested about 1 out of every 100 people, and they haven't shut down businesses at all.


In Florida, one in ten people would still take 125 days - 4 months _from now, _which is so long, it would create a false impression that it's somehow working - because cases would naturally drop off in June or July anyhow. Here a goal of 1 in 1000 or 1 in 500 is probably more realistic.



BluestarE3 said:


> One behavioral change that may help get people back to work sooner is the universal use of face coverings when out in public with other people around. People in Asia have been wearing face masks for years, so it doesn't have the same stigma it does here.


I hope that long after this is all done and gone, the one takeaway western society will keep is to _wear a mask when you're sick_. Even if it's just a cold. I never understood why it was considered worse manners to be out in public with a mask than to be out in public coughing all over everyone.


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## Klaus-rf

JasonF said:


> TL;DR: _Any_ opening is too early, but we also can't simply stay in quarantine until this generation dies off naturally. So we have to pick a date and hope for the best.


 Just curious - which generation are you referring to as "this"??

Seems to me that we usually have 2 to 5 generations alive at any one time period. Some where in the 12-40 years for each "generation"?


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## JasonF

Klaus-rf said:


> Just curious - which generation are you referring to as "this"??
> 
> Seems to me that we usually have 2 to 5 generations alive at any one time period. Some where in the 12-40 years for each "generation"?


That doesn't matter as much as an infinite quarantine meaning you'd have to keep everyone locked in their homes for so long, an entire generation or two would die off of natural causes while locked in their houses.


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## Quicksilver

JasonF said:


> I hope that long after this is all done and gone,


I don't think this is going to ever be done and gone. This is probably going to be with us for many years to come...just like the seasonal flu, returning annually. Even when a vaccine is developed, and as you noted, it will take time to vaccinate people. Also, there will a segment of the population that do not want the vaccine for fear of side-effects, short-term and long-term as well as a segment of the population that still thinks this is a hoax and just a "flu" (one of my good friends 37 year old daughter-in-law with two kids still thinks this is a big hoax and goes about life like this is a big joke - a big inconvenience). My guess is that the population will return to work around June (with some precautions) and we'll see an increase in number of infected cases and deaths, especially when fall arrives with cooler weather. Opening up the economy will certainly be risky and sadly, people will die. There is no way around this. Hindsight says that we could have done a much better job at stemming the tide but that's the past now; that opportunity is gone.


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## JasonF

Quicksilver said:


> Hindsight says that we could have done a much better job at stemming the tide but that's the past now; that opportunity is gone.


The only small opportunity we had would have been to completely close the U.S. borders back in January when the disease first appeared in China - to everyone, including Canada, Mexico, Asia, Africa, and Europe - and quarantine anyone who made it into the country during the month before that for 30 days. If we get another huge wave of this virus swelling overseas in the fall/winter, that's probably exactly what will happen this time. In pure hindsight, this was _not_ the time for the U.S. to be afraid of appearing to be isolationist.

It's easy to say that now and throw around blame, but the truth is, we were fooled by the fact that the last couple of times China had a mysterious virus spreading, it turned out to be nothing for most of the world. This virus had everyone fooled.


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## NR4P

JasonF said:


> The only small opportunity we had would have been to completely close the U.S. borders back in January when the disease first appeared in China - to everyone, including Canada, Mexico, Asia, Africa, and Europe - and quarantine anyone who made it into the country during the month before that for 30 days. If we get another huge wave of this virus swelling overseas in the fall/winter, that's probably exactly what will happen this time. In pure hindsight, this was _not_ the time for the U.S. to be afraid of appearing to be isolationist.
> 
> It's easy to say that now and throw around blame, but the truth is, we were fooled by the fact that the last couple of times China had a mysterious virus spreading, it turned out to be nothing for most of the world. This virus had everyone fooled.


The first part is very debatable about full border closings. Much of the food and diary you eat comes from Mexico and Canada. Trucks across the border.

But can you share the other virus's from China that turned out to be nothing? Sources that I might find helpful.

PS: This one didn't fool everyone. Many were worrying in January. Not being political, I know many personally including myself.


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## FRC

NR4P said:


> The first part is very debatable about full border closings. Much of the food and diary you eat comes from Mexico and Canada. Trucks across the border.
> 
> But can you share the other virus's from China that turned out to be nothing? Sources that I might find helpful.
> 
> PS: This one didn't fool everyone. Many were worrying in January. Not being political, I know many personally including myself.


How 'bout the bird flu of 1997(H5N1) which began in Hong Kong. Epidemics that threaten to become pandemics are not horribly unusual(they just don't normally grow to pandemic proportions). And every single one of them worry me when they first arrive, as did this one. Hardly makes me some kind of soothsayer.


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## Klaus-rf

JasonF said:


> That doesn't matter as much as an infinite quarantine meaning you'd have to keep everyone locked in their homes for so long, an entire generation or two would die off of natural causes while locked in their houses.


 Reminds me of the ancient phrase:

"Everything I needed to know in life I learned in Kindergarten."

that now has turned into:

"Everything I need to know in life I learned from the people locked in my basement."


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## JWardell

JasonF said:


> The only small opportunity we had would have been to completely close the U.S. borders back in January when the disease first appeared in China - to everyone, including Canada, Mexico, Asia, Africa, and Europe - and quarantine anyone who made it into the country during the month before that for 30 days. If we get another huge wave of this virus swelling overseas in the fall/winter, that's probably exactly what will happen this time. In pure hindsight, this was _not_ the time for the U.S. to be afraid of appearing to be isolationist.
> 
> It's easy to say that now and throw around blame, but the truth is, we were fooled by the fact that the last couple of times China had a mysterious virus spreading, it turned out to be nothing for most of the world. This virus had everyone fooled.


There was no need to close the borders, just a need to test or at least take the temperature of everyone at borders or more importantly airports.
This week, they traced the majority of NYC's surge to travelers returning from Europe in February. If you remember, this is when our government only decided to lock down flights from china, and the news was interviewing several people coming back from europe that were astonished that there was no testing or even PPE used for them. Many other nations were and we were given warnings and ignored them.
Had we taken more precautions with _everyone_ instead of ignorantly thinking it would only travel direct from its origin after two months of spreading, we could have contained a much larger majority of those returning with it with self quarantining and contact tracing. That would have significantly curtailed the surge and overwhelmed hospitals, which are now costing thousands of extra lives.
South Korea did all of this perfectly and that is why they are setting the example. They had an outbreak previously with MERS, learned their lessons, prepared, and took quick action. Some qualities lost on our country.


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## JasonF

JWardell said:


> South Korea did all of this perfectly and that is why they are setting the example. They had an outbreak previously with MERS, learned their lessons, prepared, and took quick action. Some qualities lost on our country.


A secondary issue though is the entire population of South Korea is only about the population of a couple of states in this country - so South Korea testing single every one of its citizens in just 2 months doesn't scale up. It would take an additional 10 months for the U.S. to do the same (12 months total), at the same pace, and that's assuming the kits availability would be able to keep up (which it won't right now).

And no, keeping everyone quarantined for 12 months until a testing cycle is complete isn't an option. No, not because the U.S. would become a 3rd world economy. Because after 9-ish months, immunity starts to run out for the initial viral cases, and then we hit another spike just as testing is wrapping up. Which means we have to start over with another 12 months' quarantine and another testing cycle, stacked right up against the last one. Voila, infinite quarantine.

It seems like our closest analogue is going to end up having to be what China did. They just started reopening slowly at between 60 and 75 days, depending on the region. They have a slow resurgence in cases again, but nothing like the initial surge. Except maybe we'll be better off because we will have more tests, and our research into treatments for the virus is further along, so maybe we'll get some relief just as our second resurgence picks up.


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## Feathermerchant

SKorea is about the size of Indiana and has 2 international airports. It does have a population of 52 million. But being small makes it a lot easier to manage. We have sort of 50 different countries here. Each one needs to do what is right for them From New York to New Mexico. Yes the Feds should give assistance but the states have policing power, governors, Transportation departments, medical experts, and they pay the unemployment.


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## garsh

JasonF said:


> A secondary issue though is the entire population of South Korea is only about the population of a couple of states in this country - so South Korea testing single every one of its citizens in just 2 months doesn't scale up. It would take an additional 10 months for the U.S. to do the same (12 months total), at the same pace, and that's assuming the kits availability would be able to keep up (which it won't right now).


I was probably one of the first here to state that "South Korea is testing everyone", but it's not true. They were testing a larger percentage of their population than anybody else for quite a while, but that's no longer the case.
The US is now testing a larger percentage of its population than South Korea.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-daily-covid-19-tests-per-thousand










So we now as a country have enough testing ability to allow us to track transmission effectively enough to replicate the South Korea model of controlling the outbreak. Hopefully within the next couple of weeks, we'll start to see restrictions on businesses and employees start to be lifted. We can't return to "normal" yet - we'll still want to take extra precautions at all businesses. Probably mandatory temperature checks for employees in the morning before allowing them into the office. No, it won't catch everything, but the goal was never to completely prevent transmission - just lower transmission rates.


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## JasonF

garsh said:


> I was probably one of the first here to state that "South Korea is testing everyone", but it's not true. They were testing a larger percentage of their population than anybody else for quite a while, but that's no longer the case.
> The US is now testing a larger percentage of its population than South Korea.


Fair enough - but I still would like to squash the two most incorrect assumptions I keep seeing out there:

1 - That the U.S. can "reopen" after every single citizen is tested. There are three major flaws with that assumption. One is that it will take just over a year to do that, and a wait that long would cause the virus to spike again because of diminishing immunity, and it would take a year to re-test, which means infinite quarantine. Two, it might take _longer_ than a year to manufacture and process that many tests. And three, it assumes one test per person will be sufficient - it won't, because there will be people who tested positive but never got it, and people who tested negative who got sick.

2 - That we can wait until a vaccine cures all. There are three possible candidate vaccines, and the _first_ of them will take _at least_ 18 months to complete testing. That doesn't mean it's being manufactured, or that it's approved, it's just when testing is completed. After that follows months more of bureaucracy and discussion, and then finally approval. After all of that, manufacturing _begins_. So after two years, all we'll have is a very limited supply of vaccines. And guess what? We won't get _any_ of them, because they'll be reserved for healthcare workers in places that are just entering their worst phase - and by then, we'll have achieved herd immunity anyway. That means anywhere from 3 to 10 years before it's widely available. Remember how long it took for the flu shot to become commonplace.

Where I could (hopefully) be wrong with #2: If at least one vaccine is being tested inside the U.S., the population of this country is a very good sample size vs the world population, and though the news makes it look pretty scary, we only have about 10% known infected so far. If the government chooses to be _very_ aggressive with vaccine development, it could theoretically require every biotech company in the country to manufacture the prototype, and inoculate enough Americans to reach herd immunity much faster. The risk would be great, but it could pay off if it works: The country with now the highest death toll could suddenly achieve immunity, and the rest of the world can consider the vaccine tested and ready. (Even this theoretical idea would take just over a year to happen)

I don't think it's likely though, because without the President signing an order putting it under military jurisdiction, the vaccine developers will be too afraid of massive liability lawsuits if a few people get so much as a rash. It's more likely the opposite will happen, and the U.S. will be the _last_ place to get any vaccine, and leave it in the hands of less risk-averse countries to test it.


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## Jim H

garsh said:


> I was probably one of the first here to state that "South Korea is testing everyone", but it's not true. They were testing a larger percentage of their population than anybody else for quite a while, but that's no longer the case.
> The US is now testing a larger percentage of its population than South Korea.
> https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-daily-covid-19-tests-per-thousand
> 
> View attachment 33366
> 
> 
> So we now as a country have enough testing ability to allow us to track transmission effectively enough to replicate the South Korea model of controlling the outbreak. Hopefully within the next couple of weeks, we'll start to see restrictions on businesses and employees start to be lifted. We can't return to "normal" yet - we'll still want to take extra precautions at all businesses. Probably mandatory temperature checks for employees in the morning before allowing them into the office. No, it won't catch everything, but the goal was never to completely prevent transmission - just lower transmission rates.


Looking at today's chart, South Korea is testing a larger percentage of their population than the US. Italy is still leading the world with their testing. 
Italy is at 17.7/1000, South Korea is at 10.1/1000, and the US is at 8.5/1000. 
Testing is still in short supply throughout the US, and until more testing is widely available, returning to some type of normal lively style is still problematic. Until we have some accurate numbers from real testing results, we have no ideal where we are. Until then, re-opening everything comes with increase probability of increasing the US numbers at an higher rate than we currently have. Remember current high rates in the US are with some type of lock down currently in place in most states. i suspect we will be dealing with this for some time. I hope the warmer temps coming will slow this as it has done with pevious virus outbreaks. But COVID-19 is unlike anything we have seen before, so only time will tell.
Stay safe everyone, and use precautions whenever you venture out. 
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-cumulative-total-tests-per-thousand


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## garsh

Jim H said:


> Looking at today's chart


You linked to the "total tests" chart.
I linked to the "daily tests" chart.

For the past three weeks, the U.S. has been testing a larger percentage of their population than every other country except for Italy.


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## Dick Blonov

JWardell said:


> There was no need to close the borders, just a need to test or at least take the temperature of everyone at borders or more importantly airports.


Unfortunately, between 25% and 50% of individuals tested positive show no symptoms and can still propagate the virus.

Phil


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## JasonF

Dick Blonov said:


> Unfortunately, between 25% and 50% of individuals tested positive show no symptoms and can still propagate the virus.


So far according to social media, half the people in the world are already secretly infected, and the virus will kill every single person it touches eventually. What's scary is we have politicians using these rumors as a method to make policy. For instance the governor of California, who actually _stated _those rumors publicly, and used it as reasoning to suggest he continue full lockdown for several years if necessary. This isn't a political comment, I'm singling him out only to show how dangerous misinformation can become when it gains a life of its own - he later changed his mind, presumably after consulting experts.

The lesson is vet your information. And even if your information comes from experts, think about it and discard irrelevant information. Such as an expert telling you that the only right way to do things is lock everyone up until they can be vaccinated. That relies on something that is currently _impossible, _so you may as well be hiding in your house and hoping Superman or Jesus comes to rescue you. Sometimes even an expert will delivery a pie-in-the-sky perfect scenario that isn't possible yet, but you and I have to stay grounded in reality and accept what we can do with what we have right now.

More to the point of the quote above, if we're surrounded by secret asymptomatic spreaders around every corner, what can we really do about it? If we assume for example that half the population of the U.S. is infected but not showing symptoms, or even a third? We don't have the testing capability to find them, and it's possibly a year or two away. We don't have a way to actually protect anyone from it. So it serves only to be a scare tactic to keep people and politicians interested in the idea of keeping people imprisoned (not a stay-at-home order, literally _locked in_, like China did) in their homes indefinitely.


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## Bigriver

Dick Blonov said:


> Unfortunately, between 25% and 50% of individuals tested positive show no symptoms and can still propagate the virus.
> 
> Phil


For the Roosevelt docked in Guam, it was around 60% of the positive cases were asymptomatic. Not sure if that figure may go down as some may have actually been pre-symptomatic at that time.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/coro...are-asymptomatic-flattop-still-wartime-ready/

To me, the high % of silent carriers of this virus is the crux of the problem. Combined with it being deadly to others they may unknowingly infect.


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## garsh

JasonF said:


> More to the point of the quote above, if we're surrounded by secret asymptomatic spreaders around every corner, what can we really do about it?


Exactly what we've been doing: slow down transmission enough that our hospitals are able to keep up with treating the severe cases. That's pretty much the only thing we can do until a vaccine is developed.

If we're able to increase testing and implement contact tracing, then we can limit transmission while allowing more people to go back to work. When new cases are discovered, we can then quarantine just the infected and those they've (likely) come into contact with, and then only for 2-3 weeks.


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## BluestarE3

And face masks/coverings for everybody so that some "non-essential" segments of the economy can be phased back online, even if some form of social distancing must remain.


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## Klaus-rf

BluestarE3 said:


> And face masks/coverings for everybody so that some "non-essential" segments of the economy can be phased back online, even if some form of *PHYSICAL* distancing must remain.


 FIFY.

We're already been "socially distanced" as soon as MySpace, FaceBook, etc. and cell phones with text came about. I've seen folks texting each other when they';re sitting at the same dinner table for many years. That, IMHO, is socially distant.


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## JasonF

BluestarE3 said:


> And face masks/coverings for everybody so that some "non-essential" segments of the economy can be phased back online, even if some form of social distancing must remain.


Over a billion people in Asia have been doing that every single cold and flu season since forever. I would be happy to see that practice stick around in the West whenever there are diseases going around - I never understood why public places considered it _more_ rude to wear a mask than to walk around coughing all over everything.


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## Klaus-rf

JasonF said:


> I never understood why public places considered it _more_ rude to wear a mask than to walk around coughing all over everything.


 Because freedumb??


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## garsh

JasonF said:


> I never understood why public places considered it _more_ rude to wear a mask than to walk around coughing all over everything.


I've never been under the impression that people believed it to be rude - just strange.

That will probably no longer be the case.


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## JasonF

garsh said:


> I've never been under the impression that people believed it to be rude - just strange.


Strange enough that if I visited Lowes (to buy PVC glue for fixing sprinkler plumbing) looking like I did last week, they probably would have called the police thinking I might be there to rob the store!


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## iChris93

JasonF said:


> Strange enough that if I visited Lowes (to buy PVC glue for fixing sprinkler plumbing) looking like I did last week, they probably would have called the police thinking I might be there to rob the store!


That has also been a problem. There are articles in the Washington Post about it.


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## BluestarE3

JasonF said:


> Strange enough that if I visited Lowes (to buy PVC glue for fixing sprinkler plumbing) looking like I did last week, they probably would have called the police thinking I might be there to rob the store!


Imagine going to the bank and stepping up to a teller's window.


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## Klaus-rf

BluestarE3 said:


> Imagine going to the bank and stepping up to a teller's window.


 There is a local Credit Union that several years ago banned hats and shades inside the bank. They had several "security incidents" where folks didn't see the sign to remove those items.

And a coupe months back, before the shelter-in-place orders, they arrested a customer for wearing a medical face mask - without hat or shades. The suspect woman had a cold at the time and was being courteous to others to not infect others while doing banking business.

Face mask wearing in USofA is not common or expected and this leads to "And another fine mess you've gotten us into Olly..." kind of things.


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## JasonF

Klaus-rf said:


> And a coupe months back, before the shelter-in-place orders, they arrested a customer for wearing a medical face mask - without hat or shades. The suspect woman had a cold at the time and was being courteous to others to not infect others while doing banking business.


That sounds like one of those things where there's more information than it sounds like. The police generally can't "arrest" you for wearing something in a bank just because there's a sign saying you can't.

Though you never know, sometimes the circumstances are just against you. I once made a completely legal u-turn at a dedicated left lane to avoid driving past a crash scene, because traffic was being redirected south, and I was supposed to turn north a block further up (so I turned around to go north at the previous intersection). As I learned the hard way, one of the cops was supposed to close that left turn lane, but forgot. So he chased me down, yelled at me, and pretty nearly arrested me for "avoidance of a police checkpoint". He told me to stay put and wait, and then made a phone call...and then just drove off. I can only guess he talked to his supervisor, who told him that was stupid and to get back to the crash scene, and he was too embarrassed to explain it to me after yelling at me.

So it's entirely possible the local cops were sick of people making excuses for not following the sign, and charged the woman with attempted robbery just to teach her a lesson.


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## bwilson4web

One of my brothers is a nurse and the other an X-ray technician. They were not in this video but I could see them showing up:





Bob Wilson


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## BluestarE3

bwilson4web said:


> One of my brothers is a nurse and the other an X-ray technician. They were not in this video but I could see them showing up:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bob Wilson


I'd like to see those anti-lockdown protesters working the hospital wards taking care of COVID-19 patients while putting their own lives at risk.


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## BluestarE3

I can see a business opportunity for someone to offer face masks with a photo of your nose, cheeks and mouth printed on it. This way, even with a mask on, you almost look like your normal self and, hopefully, put some people's minds at ease when they see you.


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## Klaus-rf

BluestarE3 said:


> I can see a business opportunity for someone to offer face masks with a photo of your nose, cheeks and mouth printed on it. This way, even with a mask on, you almost look like your normal self and, hopefully, put some people's minds at ease when they see you.


 With my "new" nose? Or the "real" one?


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## Quicksilver

bwilson4web said:


> One of my brothers is a nurse and the other an X-ray technician. They were not in this video but I could see them showing up:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bob Wilson


they should use this...


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## victor

seems like things are back to normal, right? 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1268695305555513349


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