# Am I going to be dissapointed with my Model 3 in 8, 10 years?



## JML (Jul 26, 2018)

Car just updated to 2018.50 tonight, and it got me thinking. I like updates and the new features that come with them. Many of you here probably feel similar; you also bought an untested car from an unproven company, because this car is the future. I like the updates, because it is keeping my future car still in the future, even if it is only the future of 8-bit emulation. (If this means anything to any of you) I run Debian unstable on my laptop and desktop because I can upgrade _every day_ if I feel like it. That's the mentality I'm coming from.

You probably also know the feeling of let down when you realize your Android phone is never going to receive another update, or Apple has officially dropped support for your iPhone. For me, that's the signal it's time to get a new phone. Even if Tesla doesn't drop support for the first generation Model 3 in 8 years, I'm sure the frequency and significance of updates will slow down greatly. Autopilot 5 will be out by then, and it will have smellovision to go with the fart sounds, and maybe we'll get a nav update, but the cool stuff will have moved on.

Do you think the future shine will wear off the Model 3 harder than other cars, because part of its lure is the constant upgrades and improvements? I don't think the Model S is quite a good example, because 5 years after it first came out, the only comparable choice in an electric _car_ was still the Model S, and even then, the oldest ones aren't 8 years old yet.


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## SoFlaModel3 (Apr 15, 2017)

JML said:


> Car just updated to 2018.50 tonight, and it got me thinking. I like updates and the new features that come with them. Many of you here probably feel similar; you also bought an untested car from an unproven company, because this car is the future. I like the updates, because it is keeping my future car still in the future, even if it is only the future of 8-bit emulation. (If this means anything to any of you) I run Debian unstable on my laptop and desktop because I can upgrade _every day_ if I feel like it. That's the mentality I'm coming from.
> 
> You probably also know the feeling of let down when you realize your Android phone is never going to receive another update, or Apple has officially dropped support for your iPhone. For me, that's the signal it's time to get a new phone. Even if Tesla doesn't drop support for the first generation Model 3 in 8 years, I'm sure the frequency and significance of updates will slow down greatly. Autopilot 5 will be out by then, and it will have smellovision to go with the fart sounds, and maybe we'll get a nav update, but the cool stuff will have moved on.
> 
> Do you think the future shine will wear off the Model 3 harder than other cars, because part of its lure is the constant upgrades and improvements? I don't think the Model S is quite a good example, because 5 years after it first came out, the only comparable choice in an electric _car_ was still the Model S, and even then, the oldest ones aren't 8 years old yet.


I don't think I will have my Model 3 that long but I do see 6 year old Model S' still getting updates and that's awesome! Maybe not as flashy as the newer cars due to hardware changes, but cool nonetheless!

Side note, I didn't buy my car for OTA Updates, so if they were to stop I would be completely satisfied with the car I have right now. Well... maybe if they would just add audible alerts for blind spots first


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

JML said:


> I don't think the Model S is quite a good example, because 5 years after it first came out, the only comparable choice in an electric _car_ was still the Model S, and even then, the oldest ones aren't 8 years old yet.


Not quite, but the S is still getting just as many updates as the 3 and X.

You could also consider the first-generation Roadster as an example of an older Tesla vehicle. I don't know if it even gets software updates like the other cars, but it's still a fun car to drive.


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## kort677 (Sep 17, 2018)

JML said:


> Car just updated to 2018.50 tonight, and it got me thinking. I like updates and the new features that come with them. Many of you here probably feel similar; you also bought an untested car from an unproven company, because this car is the future. I like the updates, because it is keeping my future car still in the future, even if it is only the future of 8-bit emulation. (If this means anything to any of you) I run Debian unstable on my laptop and desktop because I can upgrade _every day_ if I feel like it. That's the mentality I'm coming from.
> 
> You probably also know the feeling of let down when you realize your Android phone is never going to receive another update, or Apple has officially dropped support for your iPhone. For me, that's the signal it's time to get a new phone. Even if Tesla doesn't drop support for the first generation Model 3 in 8 years, I'm sure the frequency and significance of updates will slow down greatly. Autopilot 5 will be out by then, and it will have smellovision to go with the fart sounds, and maybe we'll get a nav update, but the cool stuff will have moved on.
> 
> Do you think the future shine will wear off the Model 3 harder than other cars, because part of its lure is the constant upgrades and improvements? I don't think the Model S is quite a good example, because 5 years after it first came out, the only comparable choice in an electric _car_ was still the Model S, and even then, the oldest ones aren't 8 years old yet.


do you think that the technology will stop evolving?


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

Of course you will, how else will Tesla eventually sell you a new model? Eventually tech, design, and battery improvements will lead you to a trade-in.


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## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

I believe the question is more about you than about the car. I drove a 2006 Toyota Prius for 12 1/2 years and was very happy with it most of those years. The last 2 1/2 years, though, when on the waiting list for the Model 3, were hard. That was more about me than about the Prius.


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## Quicksilver (Dec 29, 2016)

I am going to keep Quicksilver for a long time (with or without OTA updates) and I may end up giving it to my son when he gets his license. As long as the battery and motor holds up, I am a happy camper. As @SoFlaModel3 said, I did not buy the car strictly because of OTA abilities so I'll still be happy if the updates stop 7 years from now...but not any sooner!


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## gary in NY (Dec 2, 2018)

Traditionally, I'm a long term owner. Ten years or longer. I hated to let my '03 Accord go after 13 years. I anticipate the same longevity with the 3, with or without the updates (glad it has them though). However, it's not a traditional car, so time will tell. I will reserve a Y when that become possible, if that's any indication of confidence or brand loyalty.


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## Bigriver (Jan 26, 2018)

“Disappointed” in 8 years? Absolutely not. Will technology and features have moved on so much by then that it will seem dated? Almost guaranteed. 

In the past I have typically kept cars until they fall apart. However, in the past year we wiped the slate clean and bought all new cars because we saw such a dramatic improvement in the safety features. I’m thinking that we are still on a steep part of the curve with safety improvements. And for EVs I think range and efficiency will continue to increase dramatically.


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## Jay79 (Aug 18, 2018)

I'll keep mine for 4 years and then I'm selling my 3 and buying the latest greatest Tesla. Still gives the new owner 4 years warranty on the Battery and Motors.


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## JML (Jul 26, 2018)

kort677 said:


> do you think that the technology will stop evolving?


Oh no, just the opposite. Technology will keep improving but our hardware will stay pretty much the same. I'm sure we'll be able to buy a 5G modem, and maybe a new autopilot computer, but probably not new battery chemistry.

I guess a way to restate my concern is that I've been buying really cool new computers since sometime in the 80s, and invariably after a few years, they're junk. I decided decades ago not to be sentimental about old computers---when they're done, they're done. I don't think the car will be as dated in 2026 as a laptop from 2018 will be, but will it feel more dated than say a 2011 BMW 335i feels today?



Dr. J said:


> I believe the question is more about you than about the car. I drove a 2006 Toyota Prius for 12 1/2 years and was very happy with it most of those years. The last 2 1/2 years, though, when on the waiting list for the Model 3, were hard. That was more about me than about the Prius.


Certainly the question is about me, that's why I'm talking about it here among people of probably a similar mind. I hope to air out some of my thoughs, and hopefully get some insight into it. Speaking of insight:



Bigriver said:


> "Disappointed" in 8 years? Absolutely not. Will technology and features have moved on so much by then that it will seem dated? Almost guaranteed.
> 
> In the past I have typically kept cars until they fall apart. However, in the past year we wiped the slate clean and bought all new cars because we saw such a dramatic improvement in the safety features. I'm thinking that we are still on a steep part of the curve with safety improvements. And for EVs I think range and efficiency will continue to increase dramatically.


Thanks for saying it so much simpler than I managed to. Yeah, it will go from one of the coolest and fastest cars available to something I see in the high school parking lot, with mismatched bumpers.

I kept my 2002 GTI for over 16 years, and I was never really disappointed that I'd bought it (leaving aside the first few years while VW fixed all their assembly and engineering mistakes). It wasn't even until the last 3 or 4 years that I started to feel new cars were much better, and most of that time I spent waiting for the Model 3. Of course, the car was never updated (again, leaving aside the coil packs and window regulators), and I never expected it to be. I've barely had this car 4 months, and already the user interface has gotten a major update. At some point software 2024.38 will come out and be the last that supports our computers. Sure, there will probably be 2024.38.2 to fix some bugs, but we won't get 2024.42 which enables 8 camera recording, or whatever.


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## Ed Woodrick (May 26, 2018)

Isn't it better than a Camry, which isn't going to change at all?


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## msjulie (Feb 6, 2018)

The only thing I wonder about is the battery tech - I expect in a few years there will be considerable advances, perhaps not with Tesla but who knows - they've got something pending already. I'm the type that likes to keep the car for a time and so wonder "wouldn't it be cool to get a battery upgrade" in the same car... not necessarily range, recharge rate for road tripping


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## Lifeinabox (Nov 21, 2018)

Nah. It’s an amazing drivers car first and foremost, which will never get old. And as long as the battery holds up your good beyond 8 years. Of course the tech including EAP and finally FSD will advance well beyond the first version’s capabilities but that goes for every car on the road today including the S/X. My S is 6 years old and still a blast to drive even with “outdated” tech. I expect my 3 to last as long if not longer.


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## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

msjulie said:


> The only thing I wonder about is the battery tech - I expect in a few years there will be considerably advances, perhaps not with Tesla but who knows - they've got something pending already. I'm the type that likes to keep the car for a time and so wonder "wouldn't it be cool to get a battery upgrade" in the same car... not necessarily range, recharge rate for road tripping


The ceo of Panasonic has said that solid state batteries are not ready for prime time atleast a decade. I am pretty sure in 8 years solid state/ semi solid state batteries or whatever the new tech or batteries chemistry will be then we for sure would have made significant improvements. Who knows in 8 years 500 plus miles on EV would be standard and charging to 100% will be pretty fast.


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## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

msjulie said:


> The only thing I wonder about is the battery tech - I expect in a few years there will be considerably advances, perhaps not with Tesla but who knows - they've got something pending already. I'm the type that likes to keep the car for a time and so wonder "wouldn't it be cool to get a battery upgrade" in the same car... not necessarily range, recharge rate for road tripping


 One thing I really hope tesla allows is swappable components in their cars. e.g model 3 battery can't be swapped if they come out with a better chemistry in 2 years or a higher kw capacity. If battery swaps are allowed/ upgrade to AP hardware is allowed then we can hang on to these cars for longer but I doubt tesla would allow that.


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## He Chen (Jan 11, 2018)

I think it will feel less dated than any non-Tesla car that you could buy right now. Technology is always changing, always improving. Personally, I won’t be disappointed in my 3 in the future. Like you said, in the 6 months that I’ve had it, I have gotten numerous software updates that have improved and built on so many aspects of the car. Even if the updates slow down in tempo and the features we get aren’t on the same scale as now, the car has already gotten much better than when I first got it. So definitely not disappointed. But I will definitely love to have whatever Tesla has in 8-10 years. I’m already itching to plunk down $1K for the Model Y. Am I gonna love Tesla of the future? Unless some major disaster happens (think Fisker Karma’s spontaneous battery fires), definitely. But I won’t look back at my 3 and be disappointed. I think I’ll look at my 3 and have a solid 8-10 years of fond memories driving this amazing machine. And super excited to drive the 2026-2028 Tesla Model whatever.


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## Smokey S (Sep 30, 2018)

I’ll keep the 3 for at least 6 years. At least until FSD is fully approved across the country, However, I would like to have a Tesla that charges in less than 15 minutes between stops at Superchargers. So far my experience has been 30 to 60 minutes between stops at Superchargers unless you stop more frequently, but that just makes the trips longer.


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## alee0729 (Dec 25, 2018)

It's an iPhone on wheels. The software will keep improving, but the physical vehicle will eventually show its age. Tesla will no doubt refresh the vehicle at some point as well with new tech that you can't get otherwise. A 400-600 mi range battery. 15 min charging. More cameras/sensors. Suspension changes. Seat changes. Anything is possible. 

Sit in an 1st gen Model S, which is now 6 yrs old. It's still a nice car, but it definitely shows its age. The 2016 facelift is now 2 yrs old, but the interior is still super dated. Tesla is supposed to fully refresh the Model S in the coming year... those last 2 generations of Model S are definitely going to be yesterday's news. It never stops being a car, but Tesla is innovating at an unbelievable pace - you'll want to be in a new car in 3-4 yrs. And Tesla is pretty sure you'll buy another one by keeping you up-to-date through the ownership of your first Tesla.

The Model 3 is a nice car, but it is definitely not a hand-me-down vintage Mustang or a restored VW Beetle.


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## SalisburySam (Jun 6, 2018)

For me, I still completely enjoy my never-updated, never-changed-since-the-day-it-left-the-factory 1964 Ford Thunderbird. But lots has happened since then for emissions, safety, economy, and cost, though I have to say little progress in comfort and convenience, but that’s me. My Model 3 has emissions, safety, and economy advantages in spades, and in a very different way, a most enjoyable driving experience too. So 10 years from now? My ‘Bird will be still be exactly the same delivering exactly the same joy to me, assuming I still have it. My ‘3 will have lots of updates, maybe some FSD stuff, and still deliver a great drive.

But the 2026 Model 3 will be, in my completely unfounded opinion, principally a car with continuing safety enhancements as all cars will be. I expect ranges of at least 450 true cold-and-nasty-weather miles, considerably faster charging, and lastly the possibility of auto wipers that meet the needs of most drivers. That said, I think the biggest changes will be in the electronic guts. With Moore’s Law and similar tenets, computer processors, memory, bus width and speeds, graphics processors, image processors, and related brethren will be an order of magnitude or more faster for the same cost, and be able to deliver aggregrate processing to more realistically offer an EAP/FSD experience that begins to adequately address the many edge driving situations. This is required to have any hope of a driver being able to take eyes off the road for any duration. Could this be implanted as a replacement into a 2018 Model 3? Sure, but in a crippled way due to other hardware limitations like camera quantity, locations, and resolutions.

On a more humorous note, the 2026 Model 3 might be able to leverage Bluetooth Version 26 or so, and that version might actually work reliably. 9G cellular coverage might actually penetrate my garage door. WiFi speeds might not taper to zero in 30 feet. Headrests might not be mandated to push your chin to your chest. I might be able to close the frunk with one hand. The trunk might have a motorized close. Summon might be able to sense whether the garage door is open or closed before trying to open it. Maybe the wipers will be replaced by powerful jets of air blowing across the windshield. And maybe I’ll be too old to be able to get in and out of a sedan.


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## ateslik (Apr 13, 2018)

JML said:


> Sure, there will probably be 2024.38.2 to fix some bugs, but we won't get 2024.42 which enables 8 camera recording, or whatever.


release notes?


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## TesLou (Aug 20, 2016)

Smokey S said:


> I'll keep the 3 for at least 6 years. At least until FSD is fully approved across the country, However, I would like to have a Tesla that charges in less than 15 minutes between stops at Superchargers. So far my experience has been 30 to 60 minutes between stops at Superchargers unless you stop more frequently, but that just makes the trips longer.


That is definitely the one thing that will make me long for a newer model - quicker charges. Otherwise, I'm completely happy with my car and will be as long as +/- 300 miles is still acceptable as range for an EV.


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

I hope to drive my Model 3 for a long time. That's why I plan to buy as many options as I can afford.
Just like I buy good Apple products, because they last longer.

I know it's incomparable, but I've nearly always driven older cars. My current car is from 2006, 13 years old. My previous was from 1988 (it was 30 years old when I had to scrap it last year). I still have cars from 1975 and 1964. Of course they are old fashioned, but they function exactly the same like they always did. Which was fabulous, because they were top of the bill at the time.
Model 3 will function the same as the last update it will get (8 years from now?). Which is a lot better than now and will be still very good in 15 years.

The only reason that I might buy another Tesla in a few years is if Model Y is a huge improvement over Model 3. Since I'm getting older, a higher car gets more convenient to get in and out.
Model Y is one of two reasons why I'm waiting with ordering till the end of March. The other is that I want air suspension, to be top of the bill, and to get the most comfortable ride.


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## JML (Jul 26, 2018)

As lots of people are saying, the car will still be as fast, comfortable, etc. in 8 or 10 years as it is today, and their old cars still do everything they could when the rolled out of the factory. To me, the difference is that in the past nobody expected their car to get better (disregarding aftermarket enhancements for the moment). The original owner of that 64 Thunderbird would have predicted the car to perform the same in 1974 and 1984.

I think the difference with the Model 3, and other Teslas, is that we've already been conditioned to expect that they will be better than when they rolled out of the factory. That ranges from promised features, like track mode, to things which were not explicitly promised prior to delivery, like updates to the screen layout and enhancements to the climate controls. What I'm saying, is that at some point those enhancements will stop for older cars. That might be hardware limited, like maybe our cars don't have the processing power to do gesture control with the internal camera, or just that Tesla isn't willing to devote developer time to maintaining old platforms. I'm wondering if our cars will seem less for it, because up until then, part of the experience has been the car getting better.



ateslik said:


> release notes?


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

JML said:


> The original owner of that 64 Thunderbird would have predicted the car to perform the same in 1974 and 1984.


Welllll, except that the original owner of the 64 Thunderbird expected to sell his car in 3 years and that it would scrapped in 7 years. Because all cars till the mid 80's rusted like hell. Especially Italian and French cars were notorious, they were rusting before you got them new.
Plus the durability of parts was a lot less, so cars broke down a lot. And cars needed maintenance, oil, greasing, plugs, every 3,000 miles.
Just a very small percentage of those classics survived, that's why they are sought after and valuable now.

I say this as a lover and owner of French classics of the make Citroën.


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## Rick Steinwand (May 19, 2018)

MichelT3 said:


> Since I'm getting older, a higher car gets more convenient to get in and out.
> Model Y is one of two reasons why I'm waiting with ordering till the end of March. The other is that I want air suspension, to be top of the bill, and to get the most comfortable ride.


I just turned 65, and can't work forever, so this is probably my last new car. AWD and SAS were two things I REALLY wanted. My wife has MS and already has trouble getting in/out of our M3, so being able to raise for enter/exit would be nice. Faster charging won't help much since we rent and charge (for free) at 120v. It is what it is. Love it, but doubt we'll be trading any time soon.


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## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

JML said:


> Certainly the question is about me, that's why I'm talking about it here among people of probably a similar mind. I hope to air out some of my thoughs, and hopefully get some insight into it.


I would have thought you would know you better than we (random internet folk) would know you, but I'm of an older generation. Apologies.


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## NJturtlePower (Dec 19, 2017)

Quicksilver said:


> I am going to keep Quicksilver for a long time (with or without OTA updates) and I may end up giving it to my son when he gets his license.


I had the same thought being my oldest son just turned 7... only 9-years until permit time.

IF I do keep it that long it would break my record of about 6-years... everything else has been 2-3 year leases.

I just get bored typically, and always looking for the next cool tech and features, although Tesla kinda changes the game in that regard due to all the OTA software updates and feature additions.

Guess I'll also be curious to see how the Model 3 value holds 5-8 years from now...that may be a HUGE factor in the keep vs trade mental debate.


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## DendeNYC (Jun 29, 2018)

Bigriver said:


> Will technology and features have moved on so much by then? Almost *guaranteed!!!*.


There, I fixed it for you


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## slasher016 (Sep 12, 2017)

Here's the way I see it. The Model 3 is the car of the future. So in 5-8 years will newer Teslas be better/cooler? Absolutely. Will the legacy brands and their 3-5 year refreshes be better? Eh. Maybe by then they'll finally make a comparable car. My problem is I'll want another Tesla before eight years. Heck, I'm itching now, because I have the RWD LR when I really wanted performance, but it wasn't available when I took delivery.


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## Wooloomooloo (Oct 29, 2017)

webdriverguy said:


> The ceo of Panasonic has said that solid state batteries are not ready for prime time atleast a decade. I am pretty sure in 8 years solid state/ semi solid state batteries or whatever the new tech or batteries chemistry will be then we for sure would have made significant improvements. Who knows in 8 years 500 plus miles on EV would be standard and charging to 100% will be pretty fast.


Panasonic would say that, wouldn't they? A number of companies have started work on Solid State batteries (Ionic Materials for example, which has investment from Dyson, Samsung and Total) and an Israeli startup (storedot) is working on a battery that can charge in 5 mins. Tesla (and with them Panasonic) certainly have the most advanced batteries around today, but I understand that solid state batteries will be viable in EV's as early as 2022, so around 3 years from now.

Battery tech has barely moved forward since the early 2000's in many ways, so I agree it's hard to believe there will be a paradigm shift in capability in the near term, but I can't imagine having several thousand small cells in a huge pack will be the future of EV battery technology.


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## Bernard (Aug 3, 2017)

JML said:


> Car just updated to 2018.50 tonight, and it got me thinking. I like updates and the new features that come with them. Many of you here probably feel similar; you also bought an untested car from an unproven company, because this car is the future. I like the updates, because it is keeping my future car still in the future, even if it is only the future of 8-bit emulation. (If this means anything to any of you) I run Debian unstable on my laptop and desktop because I can upgrade _every day_ if I feel like it. That's the mentality I'm coming from.
> 
> You probably also know the feeling of let down when you realize your Android phone is never going to receive another update, or Apple has officially dropped support for your iPhone. For me, that's the signal it's time to get a new phone. Even if Tesla doesn't drop support for the first generation Model 3 in 8 years, I'm sure the frequency and significance of updates will slow down greatly. Autopilot 5 will be out by then, and it will have smellovision to go with the fart sounds, and maybe we'll get a nav update, but the cool stuff will have moved on.
> 
> Do you think the future shine will wear off the Model 3 harder than other cars, because part of its lure is the constant upgrades and improvements? I don't think the Model S is quite a good example, because 5 years after it first came out, the only comparable choice in an electric _car_ was still the Model S, and even then, the oldest ones aren't 8 years old yet.


I've used Debian unstable on all my machines for over 20 years, so I know exactly where you're coming from ;-) An update for a Tesla is indeed more like an update for a phone, at least for now, and don't we all know how fast phone manufacturers stop maintaining software for their products... (Huge thanks to Cyanogen and now LineageOS for helping us with at least some of these models!)

However, Tesla has been working hard to merge its software branches into a single product and thus has kept updating all of its S, X, and 3 models; that means that even the June 2012 Model S, first out of the factory, is still getting the same updates as the rest of the fleet. No AP version, AP 1.0, AP 2.0, and AP 2.5: all get the same updates, even if it may not benefit some of these as much as some others. We'll soon have AP 3.0 and, while I am in line for a free upgrade to 3.0 as I paid for FSD when I bought my Model 3, I fully expect Tesla to continue having the same firmware releases for all cars and hardware.

So I think that the shine will wear off much more slowly on any Model S, X, or 3 (or Y or...) than on any ICE car (which, even if they can get software updates, are never going to be as reconfigurable through software as an electric car).
The screens may look dated some years from now (think motion capture ;-), but that's relatively minor. Once true Level 4 autonomy arrives, any car with a permanent steering wheel and forward orientation to all seats will be obsolete, but I very much doubt this will happen over the next 15 years...

I am definitely planning to have my same Model 3 fifteen years from now, assuming it is still road-legal where I live by then ;-)


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## Needsdecaf (Dec 27, 2018)

Ed Woodrick said:


> Isn't it better than a Camry, which isn't going to change at all?


This.

In 8 to 10 years, you certainly will have a more relevant car than if you purchased pretty much any other car on the market. Whether you're bored or not is up to you. Personally there's no way I could keep any car that long, unless it was already a classic. For a daily driver, there would just be newer tech that I would want to have.

But at least with Tesla, they'll keep updating you.


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## Bernard (Aug 3, 2017)

webdriverguy said:


> The ceo of Panasonic has said that solid state batteries are not ready for prime time atleast a decade. I am pretty sure in 8 years solid state/ semi solid state batteries or whatever the new tech or batteries chemistry will be then we for sure would have made significant improvements. Who knows in 8 years 500 plus miles on EV would be standard and charging to 100% will be pretty fast.


If you charge at home, however, it's unlikely you'll be able to charge very much faster. Most home are on a 200A, 240V connection to the electrical network, which is just 48KW (and many folks just have a 100A connection). So that will be the limit to home charging, meaning that it will still take around 3hrs to give your car a full charge (some of that 48KW will still be needed for your kitchen appliances, lights, etc.), more if you take delivery of a 180KWh Rivian supertruck ;-)
Using a PV system and batteries for charging would give you DC charging "for free", but not fast charging, as the Powerwall or other batteries are very limited in terms of sustainable output current.
Finally, at least with current and even upcoming battery technologies, superfast charging (as for the Porsche Taycan) means reduced battery life. A Porsche owner may not have a problem with that, but a lot of ordinary people would.

So I would not put "fast charging" (comparable to tanking up an ICE car) on the list of what to expect over the next 6-8 years. But this should not matter. infrastructure for AC charging and perhaps even for medium-fast DC charging should become widespread in 6-8 years -- underground parking structures, apartment garages, etc. -- so everyone will be able to charge at home or at work. And for long trips, taking a 30mins break every couple hundred miles seems only reasonable!


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## Bernard (Aug 3, 2017)

Needsdecaf said:


> This.
> 
> In 8 to 10 years, you certainly will have a more relevant car than if you purchased pretty much any other car on the market. Whether you're bored or not is up to you. Personally there's no way I could keep any car that long, unless it was already a classic. For a daily driver, there would just be newer tech that I would want to have.
> 
> But at least with Tesla, they'll keep updating you.


Don't you expect that Model 3 to be a classic?
It will be the car that revolutionized transportation -- Roadster, S, and X were the proof-of-concept cars for Tesla, but their prices always meant that they would remain in a niche market.
Once the $35K Model 3 is out, personal electric mobility (US-style) will be real. Model 3 will be the Model T of electric transportation.
Not the kind of limited-production classic that sells 50 years later for tens of millions at Palm Beach or Carmel (except perhaps for ViN #1), but definitely a classic in my opinion.


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## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

Bernard said:


> If you charge at home, however, it's unlikely you'll be able to charge very much faster. Most home are on a 200A, 240V connection to the electrical network, which is just 48KW (and many folks just have a 100A connection). So that will be the limit to home charging, meaning that it will still take around 3hrs to give your car a full charge (some of that 48KW will still be needed for your kitchen appliances, lights, etc.), more if you take delivery of a 180KWh Rivian supertruck ;-)
> Using a PV system and batteries for charging would give you DC charging "for free", but not fast charging, as the Powerwall or other batteries are very limited in terms of sustainable output current.
> Finally, at least with current and even upcoming battery technologies, superfast charging (as for the Porsche Taycan) means reduced battery life. A Porsche owner may not have a problem with that, but a lot of ordinary people would.
> 
> So I would not put "fast charging" (comparable to tanking up an ICE car) on the list of what to expect over the next 6-8 years. But this should not matter. infrastructure for AC charging and perhaps even for medium-fast DC charging should become widespread in 6-8 years -- underground parking structures, apartment garages, etc. -- so everyone will be able to charge at home or at work. And for long trips, taking a 30mins break every couple hundred miles seems only reasonable!


Yeah your right about charging at home. Are you sure on 200A you can do 48kw at home? In 6-8 years the battery chemistries might change so you can still fast charge without affecting the battery life. The bigger the battery pack the faster you can change from 20-90% on trips so bigger battery matters even if you cant fill that up fast at home. Plus in 6-8 years superchargers will be spread around like gas stations so you can fill up fast when you want.


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## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

webdriverguy said:


> Yeah your right about charging at home. Are you sure on 200A you can do 48kw at home? In 6-8 years the battery chemistries might change so you can still fast charge without affecting the battery life. The bigger the battery pack the faster you can change from 20-90% on trips so bigger battery matters even if you cant fill that up fast at home. Plus in 6-8 years superchargers will be spread around like gas stations so you can fill up fast when you want.


Faster charging will be nice for the occasional road trip, and I suppose for those who don't have adequate home charging. But 95% of my charging needs are already being met by my NEMA 14-50 in my garage.


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## Bernard (Aug 3, 2017)

webdriverguy said:


> Yeah your right about charging at home. Are you sure on 200A you can do 48kw at home? In 6-8 years the battery chemistries might change so you can still fast charge without affecting the battery life. The bigger the battery pack the faster you can change from 20-90% on trips so bigger battery matters even if you cant fill that up fast at home. Plus in 6-8 years superchargers will be spread around like gas stations so you can fill up fast when you want.


Right: 48KW is the max that the utility can deliver to you on a 200A connection, but you couldn't use all of it for charging -- you'd be limited to 80% of that for a steady-state, long-running load, so just over 38KW would be the limit.
Current Teslas cannot do that with AC charging -- the max from an HPWC charger is 80A sustained, so 19.2KW and even that's too much for all current Tesla models, which top out at 48A, so 11.5KW.
(Older dual-charger S and X models can charge at 19.2KW, but Tesla now wants us to use the 80A capacity of its HPWC for charging two cars at the same time in the garage.)

For on-the-road DC charging, higher-voltage packs can be charged faster, true -- that's in part what Porsche is doing with the Taycan, apparently. However, I would not use a supercharger if I could avoid it -- home-charging is much kinder to your battery, which should then last longer. So I'd charge at home and use superchargers only for recharging partway on all-day driving trips. (it's also a lot cheaper to charge at home.)

(Of course, where I live now, this is all theoretical: there is no supercharger on the island and I can drive anywhere on the island and get back home with my 310+mi of range, so I just charge at home, at 11.5KW, no matter what. )


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## JML (Jul 26, 2018)

Bernard said:


> I've used Debian unstable on all my machines for over 20 years, so I know exactly where you're coming from ;-)


It's great to meet somebody who will know what I'm talking about when I mention hamm and potato.



Bernard said:


> However, Tesla has been working hard to merge its software branches into a single product and thus has kept updating all of its S, X, and 3 models; that means that even the June 2012 Model S, first out of the factory, is still getting the same updates as the rest of the fleet. No AP version, AP 1.0, AP 2.0, and AP 2.5: all get the same updates, even if it may not benefit some of these as much as some others. We'll soon have AP 3.0 and, while I am in line for a free upgrade to 3.0 as I paid for FSD when I bought my Model 3, I fully expect Tesla to continue having the same firmware releases for all cars and hardware.


I'm really hoping that Tesla software development is well managed enough that they can easily build the same release for multiple platforms. Obviously AP 3.0 is going to be capable of things that 2.5 can't do, but I'd hate to loose non-AP features because the 2.5 team was disbanded, or whatever it is that phone manufacturers do to justify dropping support for two year old models.


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## Bernard (Aug 3, 2017)

JML said:


> It's great to meet somebody who will know what I'm talking about when I mention hamm and potato.


I liked sid ;-) was only rarely vicious (as in not just crashing my system, but wiping out files)...


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## Jay Jay (Oct 26, 2018)

alee0729 said:


> The Model 3 is a nice car, but it is definitely not a hand-me-down vintage Mustang or a restored VW Beetle.


It's better, by far, than either of those (or ANY ICE car/truck in existence, in my book...YMMV).


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## Jay Jay (Oct 26, 2018)

JML said:


> Obviously AP 3.0 is going to be capable of things that 2.5 can't do, but I'd hate to loose non-AP features because the 2.5 team was disbanded, or whatever it is that phone manufacturers do to justify dropping support for two year old models.


I'm pretty sure that the TM3 will be easily upgraded to AP 3.0 if you want it. It's just a new chipset that is likely plug and play. Tesla knew it was coming when they built the first TM3's, and they knew people would want to upgrade to it when the time comes, so I'm positive it's upgrade able.


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## alee0729 (Dec 25, 2018)

Jay Jay said:


> It's better, by far, than either of those (or ANY ICE car/truck in existence, in my book...YMMV).


For now anyway. Nobody knows how these cars will wear. They're certainly not user serviceable today in any meaningful way, and there's no 3rd party suppliers for parts yet. It's a damn good car in 2019, but it certainly will never be a classic car and I personally think it will age as well as a 10 yr old cell phone. For those handy, the classics can run forever with some basic tools and a healthy parts supply chain.


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## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

Bernard said:


> Right: 48KW is the max that the utility can deliver to you on a 200A connection, but you couldn't use all of it for charging -- you'd be limited to 80% of that for a steady-state, long-running load, so just over 38KW would be the limit.
> Current Teslas cannot do that with AC charging -- the max from an HPWC charger is 80A sustained, so 19.2KW and even that's too much for all current Tesla models, which top out at 48A, so 11.5KW.
> (Older dual-charger S and X models can charge at 19.2KW, but Tesla now wants us to use the 80A capacity of its HPWC for charging two cars at the same time in the garage.)
> 
> ...


In 6-8 years the battery tech for sure would have evolved and Tesla would have made significant improvements in battery charging as well as the cell chemistry area. Who knows we would be able to charge under 15 mins for a 180 kWh battery. May be tesla would have figured out how to fast charge batteries and put in new cooling tech who knows? All I am saying is higher pack batteries are good. I would not care if I can't charge it fully at home. If have have a higher pack I should be able to charge it extremely fast on road trips. If my battery degrades by 5-10 % in 5 years by supercharging for 500 mile pack would I care? Ofcourse not. In 6-8 years fast charging times are going to matter at superchargers when EVs are going to take over ICE.

If batteries become cheap and they will in 6-8 years tesla should allow us to charge at 100% and discharge them all the way down to say 5%.

Battery for sure will evolve in 6-8 years.


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## Jay Jay (Oct 26, 2018)

alee0729 said:


> For now anyway. Nobody knows how these cars will wear. They're certainly not user serviceable today in any meaningful way, and there's no 3rd party suppliers for parts yet. It's a damn good car in 2019, but it certainly will never be a classic car and I personally think it will age as well as a 10 yr old cell phone. For those handy, the classics can run forever with some basic tools and a healthy parts supply chain.


What parts? Lol. There's very little to tinker with. They've already shown they can run these motors a million miles and they look brand new. We MIGHT have to replace the battery in 20 years, but that'll probably be the only time. It'll feel timeless in 20 years, guaranteed. At least, these early, well appointed ones. But even the standard will be awesome.


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## webdriverguy (May 25, 2017)

Jay Jay said:


> What parts? Lol. There's very little to tinker with. They've already shown they can run these motors a million miles and they look brand new. We MIGHT have to replace the battery in 20 years, but that'll probably be the only time. It'll feel timeless in 20 years, guaranteed. At least, these early, well appointed ones. But even the standard will be awesome.


If I understand correctly I think what he is getting at is ability to repair your tesla from some one else. E.g. for ICE cars there are so many reputed mechanics you can take your car to. Can you do that with tesla? For now tesla has a tight grip on servicing of these cars.


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## Needsdecaf (Dec 27, 2018)

Bernard said:


> Don't you expect that Model 3 to be a classic?
> It will be the car that revolutionized transportation -- Roadster, S, and X were the proof-of-concept cars for Tesla, but their prices always meant that they would remain in a niche market.
> Once the $35K Model 3 is out, personal electric mobility (US-style) will be real. Model 3 will be the Model T of electric transportation.
> Not the kind of limited-production classic that sells 50 years later for tens of millions at Palm Beach or Carmel (except perhaps for ViN #1), but definitely a classic in my opinion.


No, honestly I don't. Some will think of it that way, but a tidal wave of EV's is coming soon enough. Some will remember it fondly years down the road, but is that enough to make you want to hold onto it for 15-20 years? Doubt it.

Keep in mind, even cars that are considered highly collectible were once series production cars. Very few 1 or 2 owner Ferrari 250 GTO's out there. Almost all were bought and sold many times, and at one time, nothing more than an expensive used car. People ditched the Model T as fast as they could afford an Model A. People always want something new if they are driving it and using it.


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## Bernard (Aug 3, 2017)

Needsdecaf said:


> No, honestly I don't. Some will think of it that way, but a tidal wave of EV's is coming soon enough. Some will remember it fondly years down the road, but is that enough to make you want to hold onto it for 15-20 years? Doubt it.
> 
> Keep in mind, even cars that are considered highly collectible were once series production cars. Very few 1 or 2 owner Ferrari 250 GTO's out there. Almost all were bought and sold many times, and at one time, nothing more than an expensive used car. People ditched the Model T as fast as they could afford an Model A. People always want something new if they are driving it and using it.


Oh, I agree that's going to happen (ditching Model 3 for Model Z or 6 or whatever), even more so with EV enthusiasts who get upset if their firmware has not been updated in the last 3 weeks ;-) I've lost track of the number of forum members who already sold their LR RWD Model 3 to get a Performance version, as if that made any difference (other than in bragging rights, perhaps) outside a closed circuit...
But my point is that Model 3, like Model T, is destined to become a classic because of its place in history. Rarity is not the main criterion for collectibility -- plenty of cars were made in small series and never became collectibles. 
250 GTOs are incredibly rare, but they would not command the price they do if they did not have a long list of competition wins and famous owners. And what more distinguishing characteristic could you want than having ushered in the era of sustainable electric mobility?


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## Bernard (Aug 3, 2017)

Jay Jay said:


> I'm pretty sure that the TM3 will be easily upgraded to AP 3.0 if you want it. It's just a new chipset that is likely plug and play. Tesla knew it was coming when they built the first TM3's, and they knew people would want to upgrade to it when the time comes, so I'm positive it's upgrade able.


It's known to be upgradeable. It's coming in 4-6mos (Musk tweet from a few weeks ago), the exchange is doable in your garage by a ranger in 30mins, and it's free for those who paid for FSD when ordering their Model 3. (I assume that for others there will be some cost involved.) But this one is very near -- I assume JML is wondering whether upgrades will still be possible 6 years down the road.
My guess is yes -- Tesla is in this to help mankind, not just to make as much money as possible (like, say, Apple ;-), so as long as Elon Musk remains the heart and soul of the company (let's hope he lives to at least 100!), Tesla will do what is right for its customers.


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## Bernard (Aug 3, 2017)

TesLou said:


> That is definitely the one thing that will make me long for a newer model - quicker charges. Otherwise, I'm completely happy with my car and will be as long as +/- 300 miles is still acceptable as range for an EV.


Hmm, that won't last. In less than 2 years, if things go well, you'll be able to buy a pickup truck with a range of 450mi or so (Rivian R1T with 180KWh battery) -- probably for twice the price of a LR Model 3, though. The pickup can take the weight of the monster battery (you could easily run an average house for a week on it!), but Rivian is also hinting at innovations that increase the range of their (future) vehicles. It won't be long (3-4yrs?) before 400-500mi range will be common.


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## Ole1 (Jul 7, 2018)

"The Model 3 is a nice car, but it is definitely not a hand-me-down vintage Mustang or a restored VW Beetle."

Performance model 3 is More like a Hemi Belvedere:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1966-BELVE...19:g:DDAAAOSw4sNcM7h7&vxp=mtr&redirect=mobile


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## Bernard (Aug 3, 2017)

Ole1 said:


> "The Model 3 is a nice car, but it is definitely not a hand-me-down vintage Mustang or a restored VW Beetle."
> 
> Performance model 3 is More like a Hemi Belvedere:
> https://www.ebay.com/itm/1966-BELVE...19:g:DDAAAOSw4sNcM7h7&vxp=mtr&redirect=mobile


You're saying that today about Model 3, which is barely over one year old and comparing it to cars that are over 50yr old (Mustang, first produced in 1965) or even 80yr old (Beetle, first produced in 1938).
I imagine people said similar things about the Beetle or the Mustang when they first came out ;-)

(And the discussion was about Model 3, not the Performance model, (which is not central to Tesla's main goal of sustainable transportation,)


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## alee0729 (Dec 25, 2018)

Bernard said:


> You're saying that today about Model 3, which is barely over one year old and comparing it to cars that are over 50yr old (Mustang, first produced in 1965) or even 80yr old (Beetle, first produced in 1938).
> I imagine people said similar things about the Beetle or the Mustang when they first came out ;-)


I'm more alluding to the serviceability of such vehicles. The rite of passage on handed down older cars was not just about getting the keys to dad's car, but also about learning to wrench on the car as well. These were vehicles that automakers expected people to work on, and expected the aftermarket to contribute.

The last 10-15 years for automakers have been increasingly about stuff you can't touch. Custom battery packs, oddly shaped digital displays, with proprietary computers and software. BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, Honda, etc. they're all in this game.

Auto makers are only on the hook to make replacement parts for up to 10 years. After that it's used parts or a healthy aftermarket that keep that car alive.

It remains a big question mark on whether we see replacement or refurbished battery packs offered in the future, either by Tesla or someone else. How easy will it be to find a replacement Model 3 display if the backlight goes? How easy will it be get refurbished interior parts like seats? When the LTE modem is outdated, who provides a replacement? At what point does Tesla stop delivering software updates?

The Tesla is more like your modern smartphone. In 2028, will Bluetooth 8.2 on your iPhone 20s even have any backwards compatibility with your 2018 Tesla, or will you tell your kids they have to unlock these cars with the RFID card because modern phones can't work with it? Will Level 3/4 autonomy be so good in 2028 that the NHTSA deems cars with Tesla's AutoPilot 2.5 to unsafe and forced to be fully disabled? We just don't know.

We're all taking a chance on Tesla, but part of that reality is that their first mass production car could be seen as the car that pivoted the auto industry and still be considered a terrible car in 10 years, despite the critical acclaims it gets today.

All I know is the guy with the Mustang will probably still be changing their oil and spark plugs and getting continued mileage on their car. Maybe rebuilding an engine, or retrofitting another engine in it, but that thing will still be running. The Model 3, gen 1 doesn't feel like it has that certain future, just because everything in the car is very beta, and I have yet to own a piece of tech that I'm still enamored with in 10 years. Technology breeds a certain fickleness.


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## Jim H (Feb 11, 2017)

Ole1 said:


> "The Model 3 is a nice car, but it is definitely not a hand-me-down vintage Mustang or a restored VW Beetle."
> 
> Performance model 3 is More like a Hemi Belvedere:
> https://www.ebay.com/itm/1966-BELVE...19:g:DDAAAOSw4sNcM7h7&vxp=mtr&redirect=mobile


 Stealth Model 3 performance model reminds me of the Hemi Belvedere type cars of the 60's. Sleeper cars that are very quick. These type of cars are always fun to drive, you have that with the Stealth M3P, plus it's quiet while kicking the muscle car's butt.


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## Bernard (Aug 3, 2017)

alee0729 said:


> I'm more alluding to the serviceability of such vehicles. The rite of passage on handed down older cars was not just about getting the keys to dad's car, but also about learning to wrench on the car as well. These were vehicles that automakers expected people to work on, and expected the aftermarket to contribute.
> 
> The last 10-15 years for automakers have been increasingly about stuff you can't touch. Custom battery packs, oddly shaped digital displays, with proprietary computers and software. BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, Honda, etc. they're all in this game.
> 
> ...


It"s just a change in tech. There were electric cars and steam cars before there were cars with IC engines, so it's not even the first major change in tech ;-)
There is already a large community of enthusiasts who are capturing and decoding the bus signals on Model 3 -- for today's techies, not that different from figuring out an engine's timing in the 60s.
The issue of parts is the same for all cars: in the end, it depends on the number of vehicles sold -- the more sold, the longer the model stays in production and the more vehicles can be used for parts.
Plus, most parts for a Tesla are more durable or more easily replaceable than parts for ICE cars. The electric motors in Model 3 should last 50 years easy. Batteries should be very easy to replace thanks to advances in technology.. Software can just be patched and computers are easy to upgrade. The display is trivial to replace (they are only going to get better and more compact), as is the LTE radio.

Lots of people have made a comparison to phones, but that's a bad comparison. Apple from the beginning designed its smartphones to be throwaways (no replaceable batteries, big emphasis on fashion); other manufacturers soon followed suit. In any case, the environment in which a phone must operate changes constantly (4G, 5G, ...; bluetooth versions ditto) and often requires new radio hardware, but the compact format means that the hardware is not modular and so cannot be upgraded.
This is not Tesla's model at all: it does not have model years, it does not produce new "looks" every year or so, and, while it continuously improves both hardware and software, it makes sure that the newest software can be run on its entire fleet; and the environment in which electric cars operate is not changing much (we'll see faster superchargers, but that's a minor detail).

The one real risk of total obsolescence for cars as we know them today is the future advent of Level 4/5 autonomy. As soon as that level is achieved, human driving will be forbidden (and criminalized) on public roads and any car unable to provide such autonomy will be barred from these roads. ICE cars will have no chance at all (and may get barred earlier in some countries because of pollution). Tesla cars, however, should be able to support Level 4/5 as long as it does not require entirely new sensors -- upgrading computers is easy and cheap.


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