# Opposite world



## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

Found this dreck in an e-mail from 'Seeking Alpha': https://seekingalpha.com/article/4482722-tesla-seems-to-be-shifting-focus-from-new-evs

_Summary_

_Tesla is an EV company not launching EVs. It's decided to spend 2022 focusing on humanoid robots instead._
_The pickup truck is an example of a market where Tesla has lost out to competitors and we don't expect that trend to reverse._
_The company isn't leading in its highest potential side business (FSD) and its other businesses don't justify its valuation._
_We expect Tesla to continue its underperformance rather than rebounding from its recent struggles._
_I do much more than just articles at The Energy Forum: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Learn More »_
_. . . _

I remain gobstruck that someone could write this. Much less that anyone would believe what was written. Oh well, perhaps they can get some new 'shorts' to lose money.

Bob Wilson


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

bwilson4web said:


> Found this dreck in an e-mail from 'Seeking Alpha': https://seekingalpha.com/article/4482722-tesla-seems-to-be-shifting-focus-from-new-evs
> 
> _Summary_
> 
> ...


I'm this day and age EVERYTHING is about sensationalism. Gets the clicks… which means $$$. They'll repeat it forever just to drive clicks.

Similarly, Elon has stated he expects FSD to be "complete" this year. He's said that every year for the past 4 years (if not longer).


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## bwilson4web (Mar 4, 2019)

shareef777 said:


> Similarly, Elon has stated he expects FSD to be "complete" this year. He's said that every year for the past 4 years (if not longer).


I'm a FSD beta tester and know both the warts and roses. A retired engineer, I am not surprised about how schedules work (or don't.)

I bought FSD in October 2019, $6 k, and waited ... waited ... including their AI switch from frame-pixel to object classification. Such a paradigm change won't improve development speed but it will (and does) improve quality.

Called the 'march of the 9s', I'm expecting FSD to reach a point were it is declared feature complete followed by frequent updates. I'm patient and confident Tesla has taken the right technical approach, object classification.

Bob Wilson


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

bwilson4web said:


> _Tesla is an EV company not launching EVs. It's decided to spend 2022 focusing on humanoid robots instead._


Someone who deems themselves an analyst has chosen to ignore:

Tesla sells every car they can produce.
Tesla's U.S. plant produced more cars last year than EVERY OTHER U.S. plant.
Tesla has a several-month-long backlog of orders, even as they raised prices all last year.
Tesla will be opening two new manufacturing plants this year, doubling their production capacity.
No point launching a new model now - it would just increase demand further. They need to increase production capability first.
Elon also mentioned that they'll be looking for locations for even more factories this year.
Not to mention, Tesla doesn't view themselves as an EV company - they're a "sustainable energy" company, of which EVs are just one part.


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

bwilson4web said:


> I'm a FSD beta tester and know both the warts and roses. A retired engineer, I am not surprised about how schedules work (or don't.)
> 
> I bought FSD in October 2019, $6 k, and waited ... waited ... including their AI switch from frame-pixel to object classification. Such a paradigm change won't improve development speed but it will (and does) improve quality.
> 
> ...


I'm in IT, I fully understand the situation. Issue is that Tesla isn't even at 99% today, let alone a few years ago when he started (and keeps) making the claim that it's almost ready. Any mid level engineer can tell you getting the 5 9s is the most difficult part of ALL the work.

Point is that "both sides" make sensationalist claims no matter the subject (look no further than the vaccine "debate"). Sadly I've become numb to it, the past few years it isn't shocking, it's expected.


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## msjulie (Feb 6, 2018)

Click-bait aside, there is some truth to Elon being 'distracted' by the next shinny thing which seems to be the AI Bot. Certainly not my place to comment on but on a personal level, the direction the company is going product-wise has moved from what I personally initially found compelling. 

I liked the idea of a performance EV that could carry more than 1 other person, with real infrastructure support to help folks make the transition from ICE (the super charger network). 

It is true they sell everything they can build but I wonder how much is the product and how much is the hype? Someday we have to hope other brands will have a compelling offering that more can afford, perhaps at that time you think of Tesla as your robot company and not your transportation company.


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## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

bwilson4web said:


> Found this dreck in an e-mail from 'Seeking Alpha': https://seekingalpha.com/article/4482722-tesla-seems-to-be-shifting-focus-from-new-evs
> 
> _Summary_
> 
> ...


Seeking Alpha is not a site to be taken seriously. Anyone, no matter what their credentials are, or agenda, can write articles and publish them there. Historically it's where the nasty noisy negativists who are not employed journos go to write their hit pieces


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## Klaus-rf (Mar 6, 2019)

bwilson4web said:


> Called the 'march of the 9s', I'm expecting FSD to reach a point were it is declared feature complete followed by frequent updates. I'm patient and confident Tesla has taken the right technical approach, object classification.


And, by definition, "feature complete" means the project exits αlpha state and enters ßeta phase. Calling it ßeta years before feature complete is just marketing - it doesn't make the product "ready".


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

> The pickup truck is an example of a market where Tesla has lost out to competitors and we don't expect that trend to reverse.


That could happen. Rivian is slowly ramping up production and Ford and GM know this segment very well and their offerings are enticing.


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## shareef777 (Mar 10, 2019)

francoisp said:


> That could happen. Rivian is slowly ramping up production and Ford and GM know this segment very well and their offerings are enticing.


Well, Tesla is sold out of the CT for the first few years before a single one is sold. And they have more reservations then every other pickup EV combined. And the total pickup EVs in peoples hands amounts to like a dozen, so it's not like the competition has done anything either yet. So I wouldn't consider them as losing that market …yet.


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## msjulie (Feb 6, 2018)

shareef777 said:


> Well, Tesla is sold out of the CT for the first few years before a single one is sold. And they have more reservations then every other pickup EV combined. And the total pickup EVs in peoples hands amounts to like a dozen, so it's not like the competition has done anything either yet. So I wouldn't consider them as losing that market …yet.


Totally realize the 2020 Roadster isn't in the same league product-wise but - and not a small but - none of the above are real yet as neither is the CT.

Before I saw the CT I was excited for a Tesla option for a truck but it's so far from what we'd want it's not even discussed. Too flashy, too big, too different and too who-knows-when-it's-real.

Sadly the other 'main stream' offerings are too big for our needs and the Rivian as well though ever so smaller. It will be a long time, if ever, we have an EV option for what is now called a midsized truck. The 'right sized' truck we'd have is the size of the new Ford Maverick, enough for 4 people, bikes and other messy stuff out back. But I wonder if Ford will ever EV a vehicle that size.


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

Stock performance analysts like to favor companies stopping all innovation and investment into new products and whittling their existing products down to just one or two highest margin top performers. They would be happiest if Tesla would go back to making just the Model S and Model X.

Same in the cases of Apple, Disney, and other public traded companies. It’s as if these analysts can only think in terms of one company, one product. Or maybe they think of the ideal life cycle of a company as product, IPO, rake in money on the upswing, sell product to someone else and dissolve company. No thought at all to longevity or innovation.


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## msjulie (Feb 6, 2018)

JasonF said:


> Stock performance analysts like to favor companies stopping all innovation and investment into new products and whittling their existing products down to just one or two highest margin top performers. They would be happiest if Tesla would go back to making just the Model S and Model X.


While I agree analysts seem narrowly focused, it also seems the magic word is growth. To me that suggests new products at some point


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

msjulie said:


> While I agree analysts seem narrowly focused, it also seems the magic word is growth. To me that suggests new products at some point


With a lot of these analysts, it's not just growth, but growth _or die_. They would want Tesla to whittle down to just a couple of high margin products, and if they can't sustain growth with them, they should sell them to another company that can.

Because the product doesn't matter to them. It's the ability to profit while spending as little as possible.

Chapek at Disney is currently following analysts' advice closely, which is why he's cutting out services and not innovating. He's trying to squeeze more money out of what's already there. And during the pandemic closures, he even briefly considered spinning off theme park operations into a different company to satisfy that agenda.


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## msjulie (Feb 6, 2018)

JasonF said:


> With a lot of these analysts, it's not just growth, but growth _or die_.


Yeah true enough; this feels to me part of the reason Tesla is cranking out cars so fast but seems less concerned with supplying parts, etc for maintaining the existing ones.


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## JasonF (Oct 26, 2018)

msjulie said:


> Yeah true enough; this feels to me part of the reason Tesla is cranking out cars so fast but seems less concerned with supplying parts, etc for maintaining the existing ones.


Companies like BMW go to great lengths to push their customers to upgrade every 3-5 years frankly by building in planned obsolescence. Along with the internal fight inside Tesla to keep the company firmly in the high-end luxury market vs going more mainstream, there is probably also a fight over whether to nudge Tesla buyers even harder to replace their cars more often rather than just keep enjoying free software updates and minor upgrades like HW3.


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## msjulie (Feb 6, 2018)

JasonF said:


> just keep enjoying free software updates


Sorry I had to chuckle on this one cause while I know what you mean, my experience since day one has been less; the very first update I got moved around some lower dock buttons and not much else to my "why?".

Following updates added bugs, then they added more-cartoon-car-less map updated followed by more bugs. Finally V11 and well..

Perhaps you're right but currently Tesla is capturing new owners left and right so it wouldn't seem they need to be so typically Detroit, but maybe in the future.


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