# TSLA Analyst Coverage - 2018 Q2



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Why I traded my Chevy Bolt EV for a Tesla: one reader's story

It basically discusses how poor the road-trip fast-charging experience is in a Bolt compared to a Tesla.

Forbes actually linked to this article, and the writer there added a little more:

_As someone who also drives a 2017 Chevy Bolt, I believe General Motors lackadaisical, hands-off approach to the EV charging infrastructure challenge will hurt it vis-a-via Tesla and, consequently, hamper sales of the Bolt. Even in Los Angeles (where I live), a bastion of EV adoption, it's way too hard to find DC fast-charging pumps when you stray to less-populated parts of Los Angeles County. Unless things improve in the next few years, the skeleton charging infrastructure that GM relies on may push people like me away from the Bolt (and future GM EVs) and to a Model 3 or Model Y._​
Yay, somebody at Forbes gets it!


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

....and, Forbes disappoints again already.

Stocks This Week- Short Tesla And Buy Apple


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Jack Rickard now predicts TSLA stock to reach $1,500 per share in 60 months. See 52 minute mark.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Let me think about this for a second... Are TSLA shorts 'short'sighted , plain stupid... or simply rather disingenuous...?

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/2...vestors-why-do-short-sellers-claim-otherwise/


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

CNN just reported on Quest means Business that T≡SLA earnings though still negative beat expectations!
More to come, of course...
Good night from Europe!


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

More bad news for TSLA short sellers:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/992556974263947264


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Somewhat technical rationale for why shorts could soon be up sh.. creek... 
I continue to not get why the population of Shortville is so large, yet imagine it could soon become a desolate ghost town... 

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/05/0...ke-day-on-the-beach-epic-tsla-monsoon-coming/


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Lol, even long-term vocal short advocates who think Tesla is in a death spiral are starting to think about going long just to cash out on the short squeeze:

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/buy-tesla-stock-here-14580773



> Yes, Tesla needs to ramp up production, could require a capital infusion and might even have to consider diluting its shares. And yes, there are many sound fundamental reasons to expect Tesla to see a very large reduction in valuation.
> 
> But there's also potential buy interest of more than 40 million shares worth more than $11 billion out there from the stock's short-sellers, who might have to buy Tesla in a hurry on any chunky spike in its price (i.e., a short squeeze).
> 
> ...


This is getting hilarious


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)




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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Tesla Urged to 'Raise Its Game'
Amazingly, it's a rather mundane title. The content, however, is a horrible hit-piece about how a "representative of TSLA investors" is trying to get board members replaced.


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

garsh said:


> Tesla Urged to 'Raise Its Game'
> Amazingly, it's a rather mundane title. The content, however, is a horrible hit-piece about how a "representative of TSLA investors" is trying to get board members replaced.


These types of article are going to become more and more prevalent as Tesla gets closer and closer to fiscal profitability. Short sellers aren't stupid. They can see the writing on the wall. As their desperation increases regarding their ability to cover their positions, they will increasingly resort to these types of articles to try to save themselves from the great abyss. $10 Billion is a lot to watch go down the tubes after all!

Dan


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

The Tesla Semi Is Dead
Try to follow along with John Engle's thought train as we use the results of the Q1 report to determine that Tesla has abandoned Semi development.


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## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

garsh said:


> The Tesla Semi Is Dead
> Try to follow along with John Engle's thought train as we use the results of the Q1 report to determine that Tesla has abandoned Semi development.


I tried reading it as I am a glutton for punishment. But that article was written like a High school senior's book report that's due the last week of school. It seemed his heart wasn't in it. sad.


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## @gravityrydr (Apr 12, 2016)

Tesla (TSLA) Model 3 Production Seen Hitting 3K Next Week - Global Equities' Chowdhry


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Our very own @Trent Eady has written a nice article on Seeking Alpha:

The Overlooked Reason Why Tesla's Bankruptcy Is Unlikely: SpaceX


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

I assume we've all seen this 

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/05/1...ion-hits-4290-per-week-638-in-24-hours-rumor/


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

David Olive of the Toronto Star decides to write exactly the kind of poorly-researched article that Elon is railing against in his latest Twitter Rants. I've included the entire contents below.

Rough road ahead if Tesla delays $35,000 Model 3

*Tesla's in turmoil*
_
Tesla Inc. co-founder and CEO Elon Musk last week suggested he'll put a $78,000 (U.S.) Model 3 electric vehicle (EV) on the market ahead of the $35,000 version he promised when first announcing the Model 3.

There are a few reasons to bet he won't do that.

A $78,000 Model 3 will compete in the luxury niche, and not be the mass-market vehicle with which Musk hoped to revolutionize global auto-making.

A $78,000 version will enrage the nearly 500,000 Tesla fans who each ponied up a $1,000 deposit on what they expected to be a $35,000 version. Tesla, already at risk of falling behind in the EV revolution it helped trigger, will cede the market for affordable EVs to the many automakers that already have reasonably priced EVs on the road, including a $36,620 Chevrolet EV that has been a popular and critical success.

Musk's carefully cultivated status as a bold visionary, while not going down the tubes, would take a severe hit.

For now, everything associated with Musk - rocketry, solar panels, fantastical vacuum-tube public transit from San Francisco to L.A. - gets a serious hearing. After reneging on such a high-profile promise to mass-market EVs, that no longer will be the case.

It's no secret that Musk has been struggling with cost-overruns and delays on the $35,000 Model 3 version. But that was widely expected. Tesla has been late with every model in its history, yet has ultimately delivered the goods.

All will be forgiven if Musk sticks with his original plan, delivering an affordably priced Model 3 a year late, but with all the functionality that test models have shown to be a remarkably good vehicle._​


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## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

garsh said:


> _All will be forgiven if Musk sticks with his original plan, delivering an affordably priced Model 3 a year late, but with all the functionality that test models have shown to be a remarkably good vehicle._​


Yeah I bet not.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Things just get more and more ridiculous :Þ Let's sum up just this weekend:

* Musk was first being accused of being a mysogynist (reason: he disagreed with a woman on twitter, in a conversation that in no way, shape or form involved her gender)
* Then he was accused of being a cult promoter (because a journalist with legitimate credentials tweeted to him an article criticizing media coverage of Musk, and Musk retweeted it, not knowing that the site it was from was connected to a cult - and them promptly deleted it when the cult connection was pointed out)
* Finally, he was widely accused of being an antisemite (because someone complained about powerful people destroying the media, Musk responded asking "Who do you think *owns* the media?", and rather than following the conversation ("powerful people"), the internet collectively decided that Musk secretly meant "Jews").

All of this stuff is having an effect. I was on Daily Kos recently and saw a conversation between two people, one of whom had already sold all their Tesla stock and cancelled their order, and the other was thinking of cancelling their order - in addition to bringing up Musk's "antisemitism", both were talking about Tesla's upcoming "bankruptcy" as well, the "Reveal" hit pieces, and mentioning the CR test results while being unaware that a fix has already been rolled out and CR plans to retest.


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

KarenRei said:


> Things just get more and more ridiculous :Þ Let's sum up just this weekend:


All great reminders of why I don't actually tweet with my Twitter account, but I digress...



> All of this stuff is having an effect. I was on Daily Kos recently and saw a conversation between two people, one of whom had already sold all their Tesla stock and cancelled their order, and the other was thinking of cancelling their order - in addition to bringing up Musk's "antisemitism", both were talking about Tesla's upcoming "bankruptcy" as well.


The more I see discussions like this -- built upon second or third-hand information and the editorial conclusions of unspecified third parties -- the more I find them disquieting. While I find it easy to laugh off uninformed tweet-replies from no-name bloggers (oops, sorry, "journalists") who generate content (oops, I mean "write well-researched stories") for pay-per-click blogs (err, sorry, "leading investigative reporting outlets" ), the unfortunate reality is that this little game of Telephone is actually starting to influence the public's collective understanding of Tesla and its products. And, much like the fallout from another certain misinformation machine that's been running full-throttle for a couple of years here in the U.S., it's becoming increasingly difficult to unpack the truth from the multi-layer mudcake of exaggerated half-truths and outright lies in which it is encased.

Just this past Friday, as we were about to head out for the holiday weekend, my boss and his son (who is a big Tesla fan) asked me about my Model 3 reservation. The conversation went something like this:

Me: "Oh, I actually ordered it this week! I'm so excited!"
Son: "Congratulations, when do you get it?"
Me: "They said 12-16 weeks."
Boss: "Wow, what happened there? I knew they were already a year behind schedule, but now they're basically delaying your car by another quarter?"
Me: "Uh... Well, first of all..." (explains First Production and AWD invitation/ordering process and production schedule)
Boss: "But aren't you worried that they won't be around long enough to make your car? I read they were burning through cash like wildfire, and the cars aren't actually selling that well because they're double the original price, and because of all the defects, battery fires and crashes."
Me: (mind reeling at how to respond) "Uhh... Nope, not worried at all about Tesla as a company or the car itself. I mean, did you hear about the 200 GM vehicles that crashed or caught on fire yesterday?" (crickets) "No, the Model 3's doing very well...production is ramping up, and they still have a couple years' worth of demand to fulfill."
Son: "I actually saw one yesterday, it looked great!"
Boss: "Well, I hope it all works out for you..." (likely questioning what I've just done with the money he's been paying me)

I find that I've been having more and more conversations like these lately, sometimes even with longtime Tesla owners and Model 3 reservation-holders who don't follow the company that closely. Needless to say, I find this development concerning, especially given that Tesla owners and supporters have typically served as the company's unofficial global sales force. And there never seems to be enough oxygen in the room to sufficiently debunk each fallacy without the conversation turning tedious or pedantic, which doesn't really help make our case. I kind of wish I had a stack of Tesla / Model 3 pamphlets with me at all times, and anytime a Tesla conversation started to go down this rabbit hole, I could just hand them out and say, "Here you go... Salvation lies within." 

Ultimately, I do think Model 3 will speak for itself as a product, and the financial results and chorus of rave reviews from owners will drown out the superficial, speculation-driven critiques that dominate the current narrative about the Model 3. (Remember when the iPad was doomed to fail because its name had already been the butt of a MadTV sketch? How did those criticisms pan out?) The main problem is that there aren't enough Model 3 owners yet... But that's about to change.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

My meager attempt to counter some of the disinformation, on a site where I recently encountered some of it:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...-on-Tesla,-Musk,-and-the-Fight-for-the-Future


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## Wilson (Jun 2, 2017)

KarenRei said:


> My meager attempt to counter some of the disinformation, on a site where I recently encountered some of it:
> 
> https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...-on-Tesla,-Musk,-and-the-Fight-for-the-Future


Nice Karen, I hope lots of people see that. Thank you!


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> My meager attempt to counter some of the disinformation, on a site where I recently encountered some of it:
> 
> https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...-on-Tesla,-Musk,-and-the-Fight-for-the-Future


Typo, if you can edit it:

2. It should be understood who, exactly, the shorts are betting *again*.​


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

garsh said:


> Typo, if you can edit it:
> 
> 2. It should be understood who, exactly, the shorts are betting *again*.​


Fixed


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Excellent article. The intro is great (included below)

Tesla Has More in Common With Amazon Than Enron, Data Reveals
_
It's got to be the poster-child of a bubble in Silicon Valley tech.

"Investors are beginning to realize that this storybook stock has problems," reads one recent headline.

While bulls are lured by the flashy story, bears are focused on the numbers. And they don't look good.

Growing losses. Distracting side businesses. Massive competition from industry incumbents. And those might be the "less bad" factors. Accounting gimmicks make the losses look tamer than they really are. Huge infrastructure costs are only getting bigger. And while the firm has approximately $1.4 billion in cash on hand, it got that cushion by selling junk bonds.

"Eventually, shareholders and bond buyers will wise up," concludes one treatment in Barron's.

Oh, no, I'm not talking about Tesla Inc.

I'm talking about Amazon.com - almost 20 years ago._​


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Here's a good one, courtesy of the AP.

*Elon Musk must be fired as Tesla CEO, shareholders say as company struggles*


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

I can one-up that for misleading headlines - just saw this in my Google News feed:

Tesla refunds Model 3 reservation deposits in the U.S.

When you click on the article it changes to a somewhat less bad (but still highly misleading) headline, but the original headline stays in the title bar. Here's the actual story concerning reservations vs. refunds.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

*Tesla investors missed opportunity to hold Elon Musk & Co. accountable*

I guess the shorts haven't given up yet.
It looks like the short burn of the century may have begun...


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

*Bull Of The Day: Tesla (TSLA)*

Something a bit more positive to read.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Can't deny the reality that the stock is up 5 1/2% today


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Here's something that I don't say often:
An interesting, decently-researched article on Seeking Alpha, written by a TSLA short:
*How Tesla's Business Model Lowers Its Net Margin And Return On Capital*

I mostly skimmed it, but it seems like the main premise is:

Tesla keeps all of the profit that historically goes to dealers.
But Tesla has to pay for those stores whereas other manufacturers don't
Plus, EVs don't require much service, removing a traditional big profit center for dealers.
Therefore, Tesla won't make as much money as a traditional manufacturer.
This is certainly an interesting analysis, but I think there are two big flaws:

I count no fewer than 20 Chevrolet dealers in a 20-mile radius of my location. I have a single Tesla store and a single Tesla service center in a 100-mile radius. Tesla doesn't need to replicate the redundancy of the dealer network, saving capital investment.
In addition to each service center handling a much larger geographical area, Tesla is deploying more "mobile" service solutions, further reducing their capital costs for servicing vehicles.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

I agree that Tesla's model inflates gross margin and just shifts those costs elsewhere. That said, while Tesla lacks the high profit servicing business that traditional dealerships have, they also significantly "cut out the middleman". They need few stores per sale, and there's no franchise owner who wants a large return on his investment.


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

garsh said:


> *Tesla investors missed opportunity to hold Elon Musk & Co. accountable*


*Outrage Grows as World Leaders Fail to Hold Sun Accountable*
by Elmer FUD, Tinfoil Times

WASHINGTON, DC -- Thousands of angry protesters descended upon the nation's capital early Wednesday, demanding that the United States and other nations take immediate and decisive action to end the sun's ongoing reign of terror over the denizens of Earth.

Carrying a variety of homemade signs and filling the air with defiant chants, the protesters circled the National Mall, decrying the ongoing epidemic of sunburns, skin cancer, and withered house plants that continues to plague humanity after centuries of inaction by world leaders.

"I just don't get it," said protester Andy McGrath, a retired HAM radio operator from Scottsdale, Arizona. "We know exactly where in the sky that thing is going to appear every day. And we know exactly what it's going to do to us, day in and day out. So why doesn't anyone do anything about it?"

The sun, a large sphere of inanimate burning plasma located approximately 93 million miles from earth, could not be reached for comment.

Although the protesters appeared united in their shared opposition to the sun's existence, internal disagreements about which specific actions should be taken next began to emerge late Wednesday morning.

"I have, like, this really big Super Soaker in my basement," said Calvin Harrison, a 24-year-old sandcastle artist from San Diego. But before he could elaborate, he was interrupted by his father Dennis.

"We need to think bigger, much bigger," the elder Harrison suggested. "Someone needs to take the sun shade that I have in my '86 Camaro, blow it up a thousand times, and launch it into space. Problem solved!"

The last person to attempt to block out the sun, an eccentric 114-year-old billionaire named C. Montgomery Burns from Springfield, USA, briefly achieved the feat in 1995, crossing the line between everyday villainy and cartoonish supervillainy by somehow constructing a massive sun-blocking machine in plain sight. However, his plot quickly unraveled after a struggle with a toddler over a lollipop resulted in Burns being accidentally shot in the chest with his own gun.

Protesters like Dennis Harrison, though, do not see a dependence on exotic technology. "Didn't Elon Musk send his car to Mars or something? I figure, if he can do that, then surely we can blast a giant piece of cardboard into orbit."

Musk, the chairman and CEO of Tesla, Inc., a mysterious cult based in Fremont, CA, has long advocated for harnessing the power of the sun to generate renewable energy, despite its obviously deleterious effects. In a 2017 speech to the National Governors Association, Musk infamously claimed that it was possible to power the entire United States using only 100 square miles of solar panels. However, since no one has ever built a 100-square-mile solar farm, it is widely assumed that this claim is false.

Late this morning, as the anti-sun protests raged in Washington, Musk offered his analysis of the situation via Twitter: "Seems unwise to remove the source of all life on earth, but I've been wrong before."

He later replied to his own Tweet, cryptically adding, "BFR timeline accelerated. First voyage at end of 2018, subsequent launches every 14 months on avg until add'l BFR built."

The Tweet also linked to a YouTube video featuring a song by an obscure band called The Doors, entitled, "The End."


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

*Short sellers betting against Tesla lose more than $1 billion in single day as stock pops*


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

*Judge: Tesla can view records lobbyist wanted kept secret*
_A lobbyist for the Auto Dealers of Michigan must turn over internal records related to passage of a state law that prohibits electric car maker Tesla from selling directly to the public, a federal judge in Grand Rapids ruled Wednesday._


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

But... but... but...










Seeking Alpha told me so!


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> But... but... but...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If you print those shirts you'll sell thousands! I'll buy one for sure!

Dan


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> If you print those shirts you'll sell thousands! I'll buy one for sure!
> 
> Dan


They alweady exist


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> They alweady exist


Give me a link alweady!

Dan


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

They need to have the "Seeking Alpha told me so" on them. LOL!

Dan


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

https://www.redbubble.com/people/cu...-fool-s-day-funny-tweet-t-shirt?p=classic-tee


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Always eager to share a good SA analyst article! 
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4181342-tesla-short-thesis-competition-wrong


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> Always eager to share a good SA analyst article!
> https://seekingalpha.com/article/4181342-tesla-short-thesis-competition-wrong


The TSLA Short Squeeze Apocalypse has begun! Love how the article explains the domino effect of how the demand for EVs will grow tremendously and that Tesla will establish itself as the market leader for years to come.

I see more and more Model 3s hitting the streets as deliveries ramp up. Quite an exciting time to be on the cusp of Tesla becoming a household name, and that we are the ones who are first to know! The shorts don't have a clue as to what's about to hit them. Every 15 point rise in share price equates to approximately $1B lost in short positions. And there are lots of reasons, including outside of selling cars, for TSLA share price to keep rising astronomically.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

*Most Investors Missed This Tesla Production Milestone*

_Tesla's performance surge has a lot to do with new full self-driving features on the horizon as well as boosted analyst estimates Model 3 delivery numbers. But there's a totally different production milestone that Tesla just announced it hit this month - and most investors totally missed it.

I'm talking about Tesla Energy's power storage deployments._​


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

garsh said:


> *Most Investors Missed This Tesla Production Milestone*
> 
> _Tesla's performance surge has a lot to do with new full self-driving features on the horizon as well as boosted analyst estimates Model 3 delivery numbers. But there's a totally different production milestone that Tesla just announced it hit this month - and most investors totally missed it.
> 
> I'm talking about Tesla Energy's power storage deployments._​


Bookmarked. I continue to be amazed at how often I find myself pointing out -- sometimes to accredited financial professionals, no less -- that Tesla isn't just a car company. As critical as the Model 3 is for Tesla to become profitable, there is much, much more going on at the company that garners far less attention in the press. The oft-cited market-cap comparisons between Tesla and Ford, GM, FCA, etc. are becoming less valid by the day.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Indeed. A lot of them seem to see a fundamental limit of "Toyota's net worth" as the value Tesla could theoretically reach if everything went perfectly but it won't, and so you can get an back-of-a-napkin estimate of a fair value of Tesla by taking Toyota's net worth and slashing it down based on your perceived unlikeliness of Tesla getting there.

This thought process is fundamentally flawed for several reasons.

1) Whenever you reshuffle a market, some existing players die out. Some major automakers will die off and get gobbled up by others, whether other established automakers, or upstarts. The net result is that the market caps of the largest companies (whether established companies or upstarts) can be expected to be larger.

2) Beyond the auto industry, the grid storage market (as noted above) has the potential to become as massive if not more massive than Tesla's auto market. As Tesla pushes down battery costs at the rapid rate that they've been doing so, it not only affects their vehicle margins, but grows their potential market for grid products exponentially. There's orders of magnitude more customers for grid batteries at $200/kWh than at $400/kWh, and again orders of magnitude more at $100/kWh vs. $200/kWh.

3) Beyond that, if Tesla can get their solar roof prices down, they could potentially earn a large amount from the construction of a large percentage of all new houses in the world. Again, a truly massive market.

4) And - while I'm not as much of an optimist on this one - the "Tesla Network" has the potential to completely displace Uber and their ilk ( while simultaneously growing that market dramatically at the same time) - unless Uber, Lyft, etc manage to find a way to compete on self driving. But even in that situation they'd be sharing a huge, huge market, because once you take the cost of the driver and gasoline out of the equation, you make "taxi" service so cheap that it can be used for far more purposes.

Teslas simultaneously attacking/creating four massive, massive markets. The potential market cap is in the trillions.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Agreed to all of the above. The other things I’m curious to see are the 10-12 “alien dreadnought” projects coming to fruition in the next 20 or so years. They will revolutionize manufacturing as we know it - no moats required.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

*Tesla's Solar Business Is in Trouble*

I think there's some truth to this article. It does appear like a majority of Tesla's layoffs are on the solar side of the company. I've felt for a while that Tesla has decided to significantly scale back the sales portion of Solar City. I think the plan is to ramp up production of solar shingles, and then perform most sales of solar roofs from Tesla retail outlets.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

*Why would Tesla fight a rule that would force electric-car manufacturers to treat their workers well?*

Extremely click-baity title. And most of the article appears to be an attack on Tesla as well. However, if you manage to make it all the way to the end, you see that the conclusion is quite different.

_[Tesla] says identical standards, not local standards, should be imposed on all manufacturers.
...
"Tesla's reaction may well be on the money,"
...
The solution to the issues Tesla raises is implicit in its own brief: Don't make California's rules contingent on those of other states, localities or even the federal government. Require that EV companies desiring to exploit California's rebates meet our standards for wages and work conditions. Since Tesla and its CEO, Elon Musk, say they already comply with California standards, that should make them happy. Tesla is correct to say California's standards should be consistent: consistently high._​


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Saw that too, and my reaction was the same. Or, in one sentence:

"It says identical standards, not local standards, should be imposed on all manufacturers."

And my reaction to that is "no freaking duh". But let's not pretend that this is anything other than a thinly disguised attempt to attack Tesla.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> But let's not pretend that this is anything other than a thinly disguised attempt to attack Tesla.


Agreed. It almost feels like someone wrote a mostly pro-Tesla article, and the editor suggested a "few changes", knowing that hardly anybody reads past the headline, let alone all the way to the end of the article.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

garsh said:


> Agreed. It almost feels like someone wrote a mostly pro-Tesla article, and the editor suggested a "few changes", knowing that hardly anybody reads past the headline, let alone all the way to the end of the article.


I was talking about the bill, not the article


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> I was talking about the bill, not the article


So about that part... I don't see how this bill helps the UAW gain a foothold into Tesla. How does that work?


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

OK guys, so let me start with the fact that I realize none of us are financial advisers and that nothing here should be taken as such but I am interested in your opinion.

That said, let me give you a little background. Over the last two years since I made my reservation I have been able to save a little better than $20K for the down payment on my car. That money was just sitting in my savings account earning about nothing in interest and doing nothing to help my situation so I decided to put it into Tesla stock and see where it might go. About two months ago I bought in at about $290 per share and have thus far made about $4500 in equity...a lot better than sitting in savings! I have no need to touch that money until it comes time to pay for my car (I am a July-August delivery estimate) so it will sit where it is and ride the wave that it is on right now. 

So when the time comes I see several options. If the price per share drops back to $290 for some reason (I don't believe that will happen but it is a possibility) then I will sell my shares...no harm, no foul and I am even. The rub comes if the price does what we all think it will and skyrockets between now and August. I would really love to keep the money for much longer term and reap the benefits but I do need that deposit to keep the payments for the car in a manageable range. So, do I take out the original $20k and leave the rest as long term? Are there other options I am missing? I am totally ignorant of the stock market and its ins and outs. 

Any thoughts on the subject would be much appreciated.

Thanks,

Dan


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

garsh said:


> So about that part... I don't see how this bill helps the UAW gain a foothold into Tesla. How does that work?


1) Anything that makes Tesla's management look indifferent to worker safety works to their favour. Being able to present it as "the company was denied tax credits because they mistreat workers, while companies with UAW representation got them" would be a massive PR win for them.

2) In the meantime, they have no members in CA. Anything that favours "not in California" manufacturers relative to "in California" manufacturers is a win for them.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> OK guys, so let me start with the fact that I realize none of us are financial advisers and that nothing here should be taken as such but I am interested in your opinion.
> 
> That said, let me give you a little background. Over the last two years since I made my reservation I have been able to save a little better than $20K for the down payment on my car. That money was just sitting in my savings account earning about nothing in interest and doing nothing to help my situation so I decided to put it into Tesla stock and see where it might go. About two months ago I bought in at about $290 per share and have thus far made about $4500 in equity...a lot better than sitting in savings! I have no need to touch that money until it comes time to pay for my car (I am a July-August delivery estimate) so it will sit where it is and ride the wave that it is on right now.
> 
> ...


I can't tell you what to do, only what I plan to do. I plan to take out the price of my Model 3 from my shares, whatever they're worth. This would be likely to be (although not certainly) all of my shares. This is for three reasons:

1) I'm in this for the short squeeze. It should be over by then and Tesla should have 2-3 quarters of profit-or-near-profit under its belt.

2) I want to be able to tell people "I bought my Model 3 with money I took from short-selling Tesla haters" 

3) You can't actually say that you profited until you sell.

I may slowly start rebuilding my stake after that (depending on my financial needs elsewhere), and certainly will if short interest starts jumping up again.


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> I can't tell you what to do, only what I plan to do. I plan to take out the price of my Model 3 from my shares, whatever they're worth. This would be likely to be (although not certainly) all of my shares. This is for three reasons:
> 
> 1) I'm in this for the short squeeze. It should be over by then and Tesla should have 2-3 quarters of profit-or-near-profit under its belt.
> 2) I want to be able to tell people "I bought my Model 3 with money I took from short-selling Tesla haters"
> ...


Hmmm...let's see. If the stock gets to $770 by August I could buy my car outright too! How cool would THAT be?! 

Congrats, I envy your position.

Dan


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## Ode to Joy (Mar 11, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> OK guys, so let me start with the fact that I realize none of us are financial advisers and that nothing here should be taken as such but I am interested in your opinion.
> 
> That said, let me give you a little background. Over the last two years since I made my reservation I have been able to save a little better than $20K for the down payment on my car. That money was just sitting in my savings account earning about nothing in interest and doing nothing to help my situation so I decided to put it into Tesla stock and see where it might go. About two months ago I bought in at about $290 per share and have thus far made about $4500 in equity...a lot better than sitting in savings! I have no need to touch that money until it comes time to pay for my car (I am a July-August delivery estimate) so it will sit where it is and ride the wave that it is on right now.
> 
> ...


I like your thinking here and think you should see a nice profit if you decide to sell when you buy your Tesla M3.

I did something similar to you in that I started investing in Tesla figuring that it would make more than just about any bank account would. My average share price is $311. I also think that I will stay long on Tesla with some or all of it as it could really take off over the next few years. Money is still relatively cheap to borrow so I will borrow the majority of the cost and put down 20% in cash. If I need some for the 20% down I will sell some stock as needed. Once Tesla reaches $400 I might pull out some more profit and keep the rest in as it might get to $1000 in 5 years time. DISCLAIMER: I am not a stock broker or an investment advisor so keep that in mind. I just think most of us in the Model 3 Owners Club are more knowledgeable about Tesla than most of the supposed "investment experts" (see any Seeking Alpha articles).

Good luck.



Dan Detweiler said:


> OK guys, so let me start with the fact that I realize none of us are financial advisers and that nothing here should be taken as such but I am interested in your opinion.
> 
> That said, let me give you a little background. Over the last two years since I made my reservation I have been able to save a little better than $20K for the down payment on my car. That money was just sitting in my savings account earning about nothing in interest and doing nothing to help my situation so I decided to put it into Tesla stock and see where it might go. About two months ago I bought in at about $290 per share and have thus far made about $4500 in equity...a lot better than sitting in savings! I have no need to touch that money until it comes time to pay for my car (I am a July-August delivery estimate) so it will sit where it is and ride the wave that it is on right now.
> 
> ...


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> I would really love to keep the money for much longer term and reap the benefits but I do need that deposit to keep the payments for the car in a manageable range. So, do I take out the original $20k and leave the rest as long term? Are there other options I am missing?


As much as I like Tesla, and as thrilled as I am with the stock's performance of late, my two cents would be as follows:

*1. Mentally separate your plan to invest in TSLA from your plan to purchase a Model 3 later this year.* Long before this fantastic rally in TSLA, you decided that you needed about $20K to keep your loan payments comfortable... So, earmark $20K of your position for that specific purpose, and plan to sell that amount by the time you purchase your car. Separately, consider the remainder of the position (the ~$4500 in current paper profit) to be an investment in TSLA that you made using your $20K down payment as leverage... a strategy which, thankfully (or is it "obviously?" ), has worked out very well so far!

*2. Don't forget about the tax implications of selling short-term stock.* If you bought TSLA in April and are planning to sell in August-ish, any gains that you make will be taxed as ordinary income for this year, thereby increasing your tax liability. If increasing your tax liability for 2018 is a desirable outcome (e.g. to ensure that you have at least $7500 in liability to claim the full federal credit), then congratulations, it's a double-win! Otherwise, expect a reduction in refund next year (or additional taxes owned) next April... though with the federal credit more than offsetting the additional tax liability, I suspect it won't matter too much.

Just to quantify a few potential scenarios, ignoring commissions and fees, and assuming that you bought 69 shares of TSLA at $290 (total: $20,010), and that your top marginal rate for 2018 will be 24%:

Sell TSLA at $358 (current closing price)

# shares to sell: 56 for $20,048
Gain: $3808
Additional tax: $914
Remaining: 13 shares ($4654)
Sell TSLA at $390 (all-time high)

# shares to sell: 52 for $20,280
Gain: $5200
Additional tax: $1248
Remaining: 17 shares ($6630)
Sell TSLA at $440 (burn baby burn!)

# shares to sell: 46 for $20,240
Gain: $6900
Additional tax: $1656
Remaining: 23 shares ($10,120)
Obviously, there exist more (and less!) optimistic scenarios than these, but they should give you a pretty good idea about how the numbers scale from one selling price to another.

USUAL DISCLAIMER: I am not a CPA, CFP, accountant, lawyer, breakfast pastry, etc.


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

KarenRei said:


> My meager attempt to counter some of the disinformation, on a site where I recently encountered some of it:


Might want to edit this post, replacing "meager attempt" with "successful, Elon-endorsed contribution"... . Congrats!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1008409208092438528


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Yeah, I'm still in shock over that


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Looks like @TrevP highlighted something big about to happen!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1008492040156409856


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

Aka, Q2 report. I'll take that as confidence in 5k, probably some other numbers that make clear that Q3 is going to be very solid.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Surprise profit in Q2? 

BTW Happy Father’s Day to all you dads!


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

Love how this tweet summarizes a circus act of FUD rhetoric from the shorts. These guys will say just about anything to manipulate public perception.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1008450106352271360


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

*Tesla's reality begins to collide with Elon Musk's vision*

Prepare yourselves for three more weeks of these kinds of articles.


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## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

garsh said:


> *Tesla's reality begins to collide with Elon Musk's vision*
> 
> Prepare yourselves for three more weeks of these kinds of articles.


You mean stories behind paywalls? 

Could you give us an executive summary?


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

NOGA$4ME said:


> You mean stories behind paywalls?
> 
> Could you give us an executive summary?


First, I didn't hit any sort of paywall. So, sorry about that. I'm not subscribed myself or anything. I'm not sure why I can read it and you can't.

Second, an executive summary:

Eh, I can't be bothered. It's just a bunch of FUD, paragraph after paragraph. I'll leave you with the last paragraph:

_"He doesn't have any unique technology - none," says Mr Lutz, who predicts a much tougher future for Tesla. He says luxury marques such as BMW and Mercedes, with better reputations for quality, will come to dominate a market that Tesla has so far largely had to itself. That will provide the sternest test to Mr Musk's dream of profitability._​


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## NOGA$4ME (Sep 30, 2016)

garsh said:


> First, I didn't hit any sort of paywall. So, sorry about that. I'm not subscribed myself or anything. I'm not sure why I can read it and you can't.
> 
> Second, an executive summary:
> 
> ...


Maybe I've hit an article # limit.

At any rate, it's probably sufficient to just say Bob Lutz was quoted. No more needs be said!


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

I think this comment from a Seeking Alpha contributor (not just a random user) really sums up the short sentiment right now:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4182419-tesla-semi-losing-appeal-rivals#comment-78843222




> I'm short and hurtin. I'm also v obstinate, not cos I'm a mule, but cos I would have to discard everything I think I know about finance/stockmarkets accumulated over 3 v successful decades if I gave up my TSLA short here.
> 
> So I stay hurtin. But I'm asking what have I possibly missed in our rational earthly planet that includes the force of financial gravity.
> 
> Where's Montana Skeptic. On holiday again?


Nothing worse than adamantly believing in a financial thesis that happens to be based on false premises.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> I think this comment from a Seeking Alpha contributor (not just a random user) really sums up the short sentiment right now:


Wow.

There are a set of financial rules that are very good indicators that a company will fail. There are people who therefore believe that these rules are actual "rules" instead of "guidelines" or "indicators" and decide that they must apply to every company that fits the profile. Don't they realize that at a fundamental level - stock price is simply what people are willing to pay for it? And as for the company itself, that Tesla has already proven (with the S) that electric cars will sell, and now it's just a matter of scaling up and driving down price? Are these "shorts" unable to distinguish between "losing money on each sale" and "investing in the future"?

Honestly, it feels like a quote from a gambling addict. He's very good at cards, and often comes out ahead, but can't understand why his "system" failed him that last time, and he would prefer to borrow himself into debt to feed his addiction rather than quit.


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

Yup, part of that quote immediately made me think of my mother-in-law (sshhhh, she's sitting on the other couch right now!) who requires a daily scratch lottery ticket whenever she stays with us, as well as a Powerball ticket whenever the jackpot is large enough to show up her news feed. Her fundamental premise for playing the lottery is "God owes me one," so whenever she wins a few bucks here and there, she feels as though the totality of her life choices and experiences have been vindicated and affirmed from on high. Much like the poor sap quoted above, to stop playing would entail discarding a belief system that, irrational as it may seem to outside observers, is fundamental to her understanding of the world, keeps her going from one day to the next. 

At least she's smart enough to sweet-talk her family and in-laws into paying for her habit.  Ain't no one shorting TSLA with my hard-earned dough!


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

The Saviors of the Shorts are taking to Seeking Alpha!
These are the people who can legally state that they "have no positions in any stocks mentioned". 
Behold!

Tesla Semi: Losing Appeal To Rivals
Let's ignore the fact that the Semi won't be available for another year or two, AND that any potential rivals are five years away.

Tesla: Elon Musk 'Has Gone Full Trump'
Bob Lutz is always good for an anti-Tesla quote:

_"'He thinks Detroit is all these dinosaurs,' says Bob Lutz, who held senior roles at all three of the biggest U.S. automakers. He calculates that Tesla now employs 9,000-10,000 people in its single plant at Fremont near Silicon Valley, where a more experience manufacturer could achieve the same output with 2,500."_​
Do you think that may be because Tesla produces a much higher percentage of parts in-house than GM and Toyota ever have? For goodness sake, they're making their own seats! I'd like to see Bob add up all of the employees for all of the contractors that were used to make every part of a GM vehicle.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

With a lot of the articles there, I literally start laughing when I read them. That semi article was one of them. It's a case of "so much wrong, I don't even know where to start".

Probably the easiest way to sum up the "competition thesis" concerning Semi: if your competition thinks your product breaks the laws of physics, then they don't have anything that can compete.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> Probably the easiest way to sum up the "competition thesis" concerning Semi: if your competition thinks your product breaks the laws of physics, then they don't have anything that can compete.


Ding ding ding! We have a winner!


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

We need more bad news! I'd like one last buying opportunity, please.

Sabotage is a good start. Down 5% this morning.

Keep up the good work shorts!


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

More seeking alpha articles from Saviors of the Shorts

Tesla: Playing The Blame Game
Summary

Is the company already preparing for more failures.
Sabotage, commodity prices, bankruptcy speak volumes.
If this scenario plays out, watch out below.
Tesla's Silly Price

_Fact, Tesla brings in more cash from selling shares to its shareholders than through selling vehicles
_​Sure, if your thesis is that selling cars don't make money because you roll in development costs into the equation.

_Not only does Tesla not generate any free cash flow at the moment, but it has not finished any full year with positive free cash flow since its inception. 
_​Yes, because each time Tesla had a single quarter of positive cash flow, they immediately started investing in development of the next vehicle. I expect this to pattern to continue again after Model 3 production produces net profit for a quarter or too. Tesla needs to pay for development of Model Y, Semi, Roadster, China factory, etc.

It's a silly article.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

And some positive articles too.

Tesla: Is The Short Burn Of The Century Coming Soon?
I love this quote:
_In an instructional piece on what stocks not to short, Whitney Tilson warned readers to avoid shorting companies with "insanely happy and loyal customers". He added that readers should also avoid shorting stocks owned by "irrational investors". Tesla apparently happens to fit both categories. He confessed that he had "foolishly shorted" Tesla back in 2013 and had to pay "a steep price" for the "mistake"._​
Musk Hints At Positive Tesla Production Numbers
Wow, a more mainstream publication with a mostly positive outlook. But I have to take issue with this statement:

_Musk is well-known for his optimism, but Tesla has historically struggled to deliver on its promises. _​
No, Tesla has historically delivered on its promises. They just struggle with the _timing_ of those deliveries.


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

Wow, Whitney Tilson came around?! These are strange times we live in....

I generally take issue with the mis/overuse of the word "promise" applied to some of the numbers and dates that Elon throws out there in his typical off-hand way. Yes, he is the CEO of a publicly-traded company, whose statements can be construed as material, so his word choice does matter to some degree. But I keep reading coverage of Tesla that uses the word "promise" to describe a past statement that, at the time it was made, was framed as anything between a "goal" and a "rough estimate". (The litmus test I like to use when reading such coverage: hit CTRL+F, enter "promise" and see whether it appears anywhere other than the headline and opening paragraph. Spoiler alert: it typically does not.)

The word "promise" carries a very strong contractual connotation, one that implies that the promising party is offering up their personal integrity as collateral. If the promising party "breaks" the promise and does not deliver, their reliability (at best) and/or morality (at worst) are called into question. By contrast, an "objective" or "estimate" carries no moral consequences if it turns out to be inaccurate; the worst that happens is your reputation as a prognosticator/estimator takes a hit.

I mean, when was the last time something like this happened?

Math Teacher: "Billy, how many gumballs are in this huge gumball machine?"
Billy: "Hmmm... Looks like there could be about 5,000."
Math Teacher: "No, Billy, you're wrong: there are only 2,020 gumballs in there. Regrettably, I have lost all faith in your personal integrity. You are hereby expelled from school."

Or this?

Mary: "Coach, my current personal record in the 1500 meters is 4 minutes 55 seconds. Today, my goal is to finish in under 4:10!"
Coach: "Wow, that's a very ambitious goal! Go for it!"
Mary: [runs the 1500m in 4:35]
Coach: "Mary, I'm very disappointed in you. You promised me you'd break 4:10 -- which, by the way, would have qualified you for the Olympic Trials -- but you weren't even close. Instead, all you did was break your PR by 20 seconds and run the 10th fastest time in the nation this year. I'm afraid I'm going to have to downgrade you to junior varsity."

Clearly the barrier to producing well-researched, well-written content is higher than I thought.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

If anyone was looking for a buying opportunity before the Q2 results come out but was disheartened by prices in the $370s, looks like the market is giving you all a shot


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

KarenRei said:


> If anyone was looking for a buying opportunity before the Q2 results come out but was disheartened by prices in the $370s, looks like the market is giving you all a shot


Buying opportunity alert! TSLA price is now around $333/share.


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## KarenRei (Jul 27, 2017)

So dang tempted, even though I may have some bills from my home's engineer coming up :Þ


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## Bokonon (Apr 13, 2017)

KarenRei said:


> So dang tempted, even though I may have some bills from my home's engineer coming up :Þ


Shelter is highly overrated.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Another clairvoyant SA writer... 
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4183245-tesla-9-bear-facts-just-aint


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## jmmdownhil (Sep 12, 2017)

Michael Russo said:


> Another clairvoyant SA writer...
> https://seekingalpha.com/article/4183245-tesla-9-bear-facts-just-aint


Well that was a real short killer. Long article but very compelling arguements against bear "facts".


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