# What happens when battery pack reaches its end of life?



## epmenard (Mar 5, 2019)

I've been getting the same question over and over again from people taking rides in my Model 3: what happens when the battery pack reaches its end of life?

Since I keep my cars for a long time (previous car was 13 years old and hit the 350 000 km mark) its a valid question, and so far, I've been unable to find any answers on the web. Any ideas? 
1. Will I be able to replace the batteries?
2. Would upgrade be possible? In 10 years, the technology will have evolved tenfolds with longer ranges and quicker charge rates. 
3. Would it cost me the price of a new car?


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## Wooloomooloo (Oct 29, 2017)

epmenard said:


> I've been getting the same question over and over again from people taking rides in my Model 3: what happens when the battery pack reaches its end of life?
> 
> Since I keep my cars for a long time (previous car was 13 years old and hit the 350 000 km mark) its a valid question, and so far, I've been unable to find any answers on the web. Any ideas?
> 1. Will I be able to replace the batteries?
> ...


It should definitely be possible to replace the batteries, and in fact is today if the pack is faulty. The question would be, would you want to do that given how much technology has moved on.

I think it's unlikely batteries will improve 10x in the next 10 years, given they've failed to do that over the last 20, although I do see improved charging speeds on the horizon using super-capacitors and other technologies to supplement a battery. The bigger improvement will definitely be in autonomous driving, both the computer and the sensors.

Given the motors last for 1m miles and more, and steel bodies should last 30 years or more these days, I would hope people will lower energy usage and resource consumption by maintaining their cars as much as possible, rather than purchasing a new one. The batteries will almost certainly be able to be recycled.


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## SR22pilot (Aug 16, 2018)

1) Yes, but I doubt you will want to. Packs on the S and X have been lasting over 300,000 miles. I suspect you will want a new car. Expect packs to be a lot cheaper by then. Battery costs keep decreasing.
2) Probably
3) I doubt it. However, I think you will still want a new car. It may be expensive just because it will be an old out of production version. Like trying to buy a new engine for a 1962 Jaguar E-Type.

The old pack itself will probably be re-purposed for grid storage. Once that is done (no longer holds any useful charge) then the battery will finally be recycled. 

I can't see the future so this is just my best guess.


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## Ed Woodrick (May 26, 2018)

There are indeed efforts from multiple EV manufacturers for environmentally friendly reuse of batteries. Many of these are repurposing for energy storage solutions. The S and X batteries were design for quick replacement, the Model 3 takes a lot longer. As SR22pilot mentioned, no one really has any experience yet. But indeed, the batteries should be able to be replaced and you tend to get the equivalent of a new car when it does. 
No one has any ideas what the technologies will be 10 years from now, so no need to ask.


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## Frully (Aug 30, 2018)

Lots of mention of 'future tech will be better' -- nothing saying that future tech won't be in the m3 battery form factor. 
You can get a replacement S/X battery today, probably 3 off the shelf if you ask the right way (with a VIN). A P100D battery is about $30-50000CAD off the top of my head. In a decade when my 75LR battery is cooked I expect it'll be a LOT cheaper to get equivalent storage and likely 'for the same price' getting a MUCH higher capacity solution.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

epmenard said:


> what happens when the battery pack reaches its end of life?


The good news is that there hasn't been a single Tesla battery pack that has reached end of life. 

Sure, there have been several that have failed prematurely, but the degradation on Tesla battery packs has been minimal. I see no need to worry about this issue for a Tesla.


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

I agree with Garsh. Shouldn't really even be a concern as the lifespan on the packs is pretty incredible. Lots of early 3 owners are finding they have very little to no degradation yet.


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## epmenard (Mar 5, 2019)

garsh said:


> The good news is that there hasn't been a single Tesla battery pack that has reached end of life.
> 
> Sure, there have been several that have failed prematurely, but the degradation on Tesla battery packs has been minimal. I see no need to worry about this issue for a Tesla.


Although there are not enough data points after 150k to be as precise in the extended mileage than in the short, your graph is really interesting. Thanks for sharing.

What I find most interesting is how we appear to quickly lose an average of 1% of range per 10k for the first 100k but then degradation flattens and seems to slow down to about 1% per 30k after that. I'd love to see the graph in a year or 2 when distances covered are more representative.


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## epmenard (Mar 5, 2019)

SR22pilot said:


> 1) Yes, but I doubt you will want to. Packs on the S and X have been lasting over 300,000 miles. I suspect you will want a new car. Expect packs to be a lot cheaper by then. Battery costs keep decreasing.
> 2) Probably
> 3) I doubt it. However, I think you will still want a new car. It may be expensive just because it will be an old out of production version. Like trying to buy a new engine for a 1962 Jaguar E-Type.
> 
> ...


Unless the car is in ruins and batteries cost 30k, I'll probably hold on to that one until wheels fall off! Then again, if autonomy by then is in the thousands of km, I might reconsider!!


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## C.Ross (Apr 7, 2018)

I luckily have access to a small time machine through my work. I just checked ahead 20 years - and indeed the batteries had improved and I had the option of replacing my Model 3 battery with an equivalent of a 300 kwh battery with 1200 mi range and mega-ultra-supercharger charging speeds. It was great. If I recall it was $7K, but while I was there the price dropped to $4K, but I heard it was going back up to $8K soon.


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## GDN (Oct 30, 2017)

So here is the really big question about a battery degrading below 75% - that is still a very very good usable battery with plenty of range for someone, but perhaps lets just say I must have my 300 mile range for the vehicle to be useful to me. So do I spend (put any number in here since we don't know what batteries will cost in 10 years) $12K on a new battery that will get me back to 300 miles and my car useful to me? Likely not for 25% of range, because I can take that $12K and put it toward a brand new vehicle with 500 miles range and all the new features. It will cost me more than the $12K, but I get a lot more for it. Then I turn around and sell my old vehicle to someone that is perfectly happy with only 75% of the range. Then they drive the car until the range isn't enough for them, but they can't or won't afford what it costs for a new battery because the cars overall value still isn't worth what it will cost for a new battery.

I really don't see the majority of these cars ever getting new batteries in 15 or even 20 years. They will be sold as used and will have depreciated overall to the point no one can afford a decent battery to keep it going and then they will find the scrap/recycle yard just like every other car does. 

I could be proven wrong with this theory, but it is all going to be based on the fact that the rest of the car holds up. But once the interior looks ragged, or you need a new axle or wheel bearing set up (likely a $700 part) and rust starts to show through a little, etc - they will drop in price and value and hit the junk yard, they won't be kept by the original owners for 40 years just replacing the battery once in a while over that life.


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## MJJ (Aug 7, 2016)

What do you want to bet Moore’s Law will apply to our batteries for the foreseeable future?


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## Frully (Aug 30, 2018)

MJJ said:


> What do you want to bet Moore's Law will apply to our batteries for the foreseeable future?


Some version of it at least... 'doubling every 18 months' is a bit steep but would be badass. As with most things we seem to be getting that magic 10%/year increase.


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## SalisburySam (Jun 6, 2018)

arnis said:


> Correct. There is no room to "restore range" on old EV. When EV gets old, it is old. 2012 Model S will cost not much in 2027 @ 15yo. And Nobody will pay thousands to get better range. It's not worth it.
> Same is today with 2010 Leafs. They are worth 5k. And if they get absolutely new battery. They still cost less than 9k. As they are old no matter what. Old tech etc.


Gotta agree completely. My 2012 LEAF SL, which remains today an amazing vehicle but only goes about 35-40 miles on a 100% charge, commands blue book prices hovering around $6-$7k at best. A replacement battery of the SAME capacity is $8500 plus labor and would return the car to about 75 miles of range. Greater capacity batteries are not an option because they don't fit and require additional and major vehicle changes no one would actually make. Even 3rd-party producers are only just beginning to develop solutions using newer battery tech, but are a good ways away from actual delivery, and pricing is still over $6000 plus labor.

Tesla may be able to design and retrofit batteries into a 2018 or 2019 vehicle a decade from now, assuming it would be profitable to do so, but I think those willing to pay the freight to do so in a car of that age are edge cases. I believe most would either want whatever specs would be available in new or slightly used vehicles at that time.

On another note, if I had the 1962 E-type Jag @SR22pilot mentions, now THAT car would be worth it to me to buy, rebuild, or machine a failed power plant for certain! But that's me.


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## C.Ross (Apr 7, 2018)

arnis said:


> No. dimensions inside modern cells are dictated with some basic principles. Like
> cell voltage of up to 4.2V. If we get better chemistry, voltage might go higher.
> power requirement from each cell of xx Amps.
> thermal requirements
> ...


Imagine the cost savings if that ship could run off solar and wind.

This is a cool article related to that subject: 
https://ensia.com/features/ship-carbon/

and it has the coolest "moving" map - shown here as a screenshot:


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## MJJ (Aug 7, 2016)

Frully said:


> Some version of it at least... 'doubling every 18 months' is a bit steep but would be badass. As with most things we seem to be getting that magic 10%/year increase.


Quite right. Batteries are not semiconductors. But I put a lot of miles (= charge cycles) on my model 3 and I would not be surprised if there was sufficient degradation in 5-6 years to warrant a look at a replacement pack. I *would* be surprised if that replacement pack was not significantly improved over the original.


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## MJJ (Aug 7, 2016)

arnis said:


> If you do more than half a million miles, maybe. Otherwise... no. Some actually think 50 000km (30 000 miles) per year is a lot.... well no. Quarter of German drivers do that. Taxi drivers do 2-3x more than that.


I don't feel well connected to the specs here, so hopefully you can help me out. I'm assuming my Tesla's battery pack has a similar description of its lifespan as does (for example) my iPad. I think I read that the iPad expected the equivalent of 600 full charge cycles before degrading. "Equivalent" meaning 600 full drain-recharge, or 1200 half-drain-recharge, etc. For the sake of argument, let's say we expect something similar from our cars. I do 20 cycles of about 60% per month, plus another two full cycles. Let's call it roughly 25 50% cycles per month. That's 150 full cycles per year. My iPad battery would show signs of degrading in 4 years using those numbers. I'm going to give Tesla the benefit of a) doubt, b) better charge management, and c) better temperature control, and say that the reasonable extrapolation would be on the order of 5-6 years for my driving habits.

I usually keep my cars 10-12 years. This is why I feel I will be facing a battery replacement.

I'm sure that Tesla has an expectation of the lifetime of its battery packs expressed in charge cycles, but I'm not sure we know what it is.


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## Bernard (Aug 3, 2017)

epmenard said:


> Although there are not enough data points after 150k to be as precise in the extended mileage than in the short, your graph is really interesting. Thanks for sharing.
> 
> What I find most interesting is how we appear to quickly lose an average of 1% of range per 10k for the first 100k but then degradation flattens and seems to slow down to about 1% per 30k after that. I'd love to see the graph in a year or 2 when distances covered are more representative.


There is a lot of information available for how long various types of lithium-ion batteries last, manufacturer by manufacturer -- that's for the individual, hold-in-your-hand, cells; an academic research team (in collaboration with Tesla) has devised a way to test them and predict accurately long-term behavior in a matter of days or weeks. (These studies tend to confirm that large battery manufacturers know what they are doing in terms of chemistry and indicate that batteries should easily last you through 1'000 cycles of full charge/discharge with very little loss in capacity, as long as you don't charge them too slowly. You can find a number of general-audience presentations from these researchers on YouTube. Look for Prof. Jeff Dahn from Dalhousie U. in Canada.)
Packs are less well tested -- more expensive to acquire for testing, more jealously guarded perhaps -- but as Garsh showed, there is a lot of info on Tesla packs and they should roll you through the 100K mile marks at least 4-5 times, probably more for the newer Model 3 packs. Larger packs are likely to last longer, as they should undergo fewer discharge/recharge cycles.
The motors should last nearly forever, the batteries only somewhat less so -- it's going to be down to the body and the interior.


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## epmenard (Mar 5, 2019)

Elon answered the question...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1117099861273219073


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## SR22pilot (Aug 16, 2018)

There are a number of Teslas with over 300K miles. They still charge to 90% of original capacity. People worry about battery life because they have issues with cell phones and laptops. Those have poor battery management and are constantly charged to 100% which is rough on the battery. Most Teslas live their lives between 20% and 90% which greatly aids life expectancy. Additionally, Tesla employs sophisticated temperature management and charging management. Leafs on the other hand, not so much.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

SR22pilot said:


> People worry about battery life because they have issues with cell phones and laptops.


AND Nissan Leafs.

Not that I'm bitter.


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## SR22pilot (Aug 16, 2018)

garsh said:


> AND Nissan Leafs.
> 
> Not that I'm bitter.


Hence the last line of my post. Sometimes you shouldn't cut corners. I am especially disappointed in the latest long range Leaf. I thought they were going to do more.


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## Jay79 (Aug 18, 2018)

I personally wouldn't keep this car for 10 plus years only because the new models will be far superior in overall design by then. I'm planning on keeping my Model 3 for 4-6 years and selling privately when the time comes to buy a new Tesla. This will give the new owner multiple years of Battery and Drive Unit warranty and allow me to drive the latest greatest Tesla.


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## epmenard (Mar 5, 2019)

garsh said:


> AND Nissan Leafs.
> 
> Not that I'm bitter.


At least you don't own a Prius with Limp mode!!


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## epmenard (Mar 5, 2019)

Jay79 said:


> I personally wouldn't keep this car for 10 plus years only because the new models will be far superior in overall design by then. I'm planning on keeping my Model 3 for 4-6 years and selling privately when the time comes to buy a new Tesla. This will give the new owner multiple years of Battery and Drive Unit warranty and allow me to drive the latest greatest Tesla.


With OTA updates we all get the latest greatest Tesla every month!!


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

epmenard said:


> At least you don't own a Prius with Limp mode!!


No, I get turtle mode.


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## PaulK (Oct 2, 2017)

My experience with “end of life” lithium batteries, in several different kinds of devices, is that they will unpredictably shut down. Once very old: Sometimes at 30%-50% SOC if the current demand goes up momentarily the voltage will drop rapidly killing the circuits. 

Does Tesla (or other manufacturer’s) tech prevent this from happening once the batteries degrade to this point? 

I fear there’s more to it than “degraded Model 3 will have only 100 mile range” - but expect the battery tech used in our cars somehow won’t exhibit the same unpredictable behavior as smaller lithium battery devices.


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## iChris93 (Feb 3, 2017)

PaulK said:


> My experience with "end of life" lithium batteries, in several different kinds of devices, is that they will unpredictably shut down. Once very old: Sometimes at 30%-50% SOC if the current demand goes up momentarily the voltage will drop rapidly killing the circuits.
> 
> Does Tesla (or other manufacturer's) tech prevent this from happening once the batteries degrade to this point?
> 
> I fear there's more to it than "degraded Model 3 will have only 100 mile range" - but expect the battery tech used in our cars somehow won't exhibit the same unpredictable behavior as smaller lithium battery devices.


This is where Apple got in trouble. Instead of letting their phones seemingly randomly shut down after battery degradation, they slowed them down. They got in trouble because they did this without telling their customers.


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## epmenard (Mar 5, 2019)

iChris93 said:


> This is where Apple got in trouble. Instead of letting their phones seemingly randomly shut down after battery degradation, they slowed them down. They got in trouble because they did this without telling their customers.


As discussed in previous posts, phone manufacturers let us charge our phone batteries to 100%, thereby making sure to have us degrade the batteries quicker so that we're made to change phones every 2-3 years. Not so with Tesla with 2 safety measures:
1. Batteries are software locked to prevent 100% charging (Remember Tesla removing limits during hurricanes)
2. Requesting owners to reduce the maximum recharge limit to safe ranges during daily commutes (Whenever I go on extended trips and have to charge to 100%, I get stressed out by the impeding warning alert on the console)


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## PaulK (Oct 2, 2017)

epmenard said:


> As discussed in previous posts, phone manufacturers let us charge our phone batteries to 100%, thereby making sure to have us degrade the batteries quicker so that we're made to change phones every 2-3 years. Not so with Tesla with 2 safety measures:
> 1. Batteries are software locked to prevent 100% charging (Remember Tesla removing limits during hurricanes)
> 2. Requesting owners to reduce the maximum recharge limit to safe ranges during daily commutes (Whenever I go on extended trips and have to charge to 100%, I get stressed out by the impeding warning alert on the console)


Yes, I now charge my phone in the evening during dinnertime to 80-90% and do NOT leave it on charge overnight. Then it gets a boost again during my morning commute to about 90%.

My iPhone 7 was down to 70% "health" (per iOS settings) after 20 months of ownership charging to 100% all night (and heavy usage, 3500 - 4000 minutes talk/month and a couple of hours of hotspot usage every week). New battery early December (official battery from the Apple store), which is when I also changed my charging habits. Now, after 4 months the battery "health" indicates 97%. It will be interesting to see how my changed behavior helps this battery.

oh but this is thread creep... sorry!


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

epmenard said:


> 1. Batteries are software locked to prevent 100% charging (Remember Tesla removing limits during hurricanes)


I think you are confused. Only certain Model S versions were sold with software locked batteries (namely, the S 40, some S 60, and some S 70), and these were the cars that had additional battery capacity unlocked. Owners of these vehicles could also pay to unlock the additional capacity permanently. Owners of Model 3 SR will be able to do the same to upgrade to an SR+. But for all other cars, 100% is 100%.


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