# FSD and potential competition discussion



## TeslaTony310 (Jan 15, 2020)

ibgeek said:


> There are A lot of things being done behind the scenes. They are doing a complete re-write of the AP code to take advantage of HW3. It's fairly far along now.
> The updates you are getting are things that are the types of things that they can add in the mean time and while everyone wants their car to be full self driving yesterday. That's simply not how it works.
> 
> Patience is required and will be rewarded. Any time you think to yourself "Wow this is taking too long" ask yourself who's doing FSD faster than Tesla.... Yep. No one.
> ...


MobileEye is doing AV tech MUCH faster than Tesla. What are you on??


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

TeslaTony310 said:


> MobileEye is doing AV tech MUCH faster than Tesla. What are you on??


I agree. I saw some pretty awesome demos from MobileEye on youtube.


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## littlD (Apr 17, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> I agree. I saw some pretty awesome demos from MobileEye on youtube.


Once those demos translate into production vehicles, I'll be more excited.

It's healthy competition, just like Boeing and SpaceX.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

littlD said:


> Once those demos translate into production vehicles, I'll be more excited.
> 
> It's healthy competition, just like Boeing and SpaceX.


I agree. Nonetheless when you compare the demos from Tesla and MobilEye, MobileEye does appear to have an edge.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

FrancoisP said:


> I agree. Nonetheless when you compare the demos from Tesla and MobilEye, MobileEye does appear to have an edge.


And Waymo has been way, way ahead of both of them.

But I can't buy a Waymo either. These other companies are waiting for "perfect", and it seems like it's never going to be good enough to be released because of that.


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## francoisp (Sep 28, 2018)

garsh said:


> And Waymo has been way, way ahead of both of them.
> 
> But I can't buy a Waymo either. These other companies are waiting for "perfect", and it seems like it's never going to be good enough to be released because of that.


Tesla's tech isn't dependable. It works most of the time but it glitches too often. That's why many of us won't use it with our wives in the car. That's why my wife won't use it ever. So I won't fault Waymo and MobliEye trying to reach for perfection.

That said, my initial comment was about the MobileEye self-driving demo of a car navigating what seemed to be a very busy street with tons of complex challenges even for a human driver. In comparison, Tesla's demo, at least the one I saw, was very simple and straightforward.


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## TeslaTony310 (Jan 15, 2020)

garsh said:


> And Waymo has been way, way ahead of both of them.
> 
> But I can't buy a Waymo either. These other companies are waiting for "perfect", and it seems like it's never going to be good enough to be released because of that.


Waymo is ahead, but their time to map an area and tech required just aren't realistic, unless you would consider not owning a vehicle. This will change in the future I'm sure, as the price of LiDar comes down, but it's still at least a few years away.


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## ibgeek (Aug 26, 2019)

TeslaTony310 said:


> MobileEye is doing AV tech MUCH faster than Tesla. What are you on??


I know MobileEye is working on similar things, but it is NOT ahead of Tesla. They're system makes too many assumptions at the moment. To the end user it feels like it's advanced, but it's at the cost of safety. That's all I'll say on this topic.


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## ibgeek (Aug 26, 2019)

garsh said:


> And Waymo has been way, way ahead of both of them.
> 
> But I can't buy a Waymo either. These other companies are waiting for "perfect", and it seems like it's never going to be good enough to be released because of that.


Waymo is a sham. It works because they meticulously map every aspect of the road that it is being used on. Without that it's useless. Oh and throw in a little rain and Lidar falls on it's ass.


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## TeslaTony310 (Jan 15, 2020)

ibgeek said:


> I know MobileEye is working on similar things, but it is NOT ahead of Tesla. They're system makes too many assumptions at the moment. To the end user it feels like it's advanced, but it's at the cost of safety. That's all I'll say on this topic.


It absolutely IS ahead of Tesla, in terms of programmed capability, at least, that we're aware of. It goes around stopped cars on the street, moves out of the way of cones/obstacles. NONE of which a Tesla can do, at the present moment. Will they get passed up in the future?? Most likely, yes. Are they ahead of Tesla, at least using publicly facing information on builds?? Absolutely.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

ibgeek said:


> Waymo is a sham.


A sham? Really? 
Waymo is the ONLY company that has a completely self-driving car driving on public roads with no backup drivers. Tesla and Mobileye aren't capable of doing that yet.







> Oh and throw in a little rain and Lidar falls on it's ass.


I think you've been drinking a bit too much of the Tesla kool-aid. I'm no fan of the LIDAR approach, but this isn't true. LIDAR doesn't "fall on its ass" in the rain - at least no more so than visible cameras do.


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## ibgeek (Aug 26, 2019)

Yeah, not going to argue over this as time is going to be the only way you are all convinced. I stand behind my statements and they are not just based on my opinion though I am not in a position to back them up for reasons I wont get in to. 

As I have stated before, you are free to believe me or not. I really don't care.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

ibgeek said:


> you are free to believe me or not. I really don't care.


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

Suppose L5 autonomy is the goal.

Remember, L5 means the car can drive itself in all circumstances.

Waymo figured the thing to do was to get to L4 (drives itself in some cicrumstances), and they've done that. In that sense, they're "ahead" of Telsa.

But Tesla seems to think the way to L5 is not to first head to L4. While Waymo focussed on "the car can drive itself" part, Tesla is dedicated to the "all circumstances" part. They want to get to L2 everywhere--driver assist in all circumstances, and then somehow improve that until it's L3 and finally L5.

That means a fundamentally different approach. Tesla can't rely on high-definition maps, because those aren't available everywhere. It can't limit itself to certain kinds of roads, or certain speeds, or even certain countries (yes, regulations may prohibit some features in some countries, but Tesla still wants them to be ready to work there).

While Tesla's approach has merit, I'd wish they'd modify it just a little to try to get us to L3 in more situations. Surely Tesla _could_ handle stop-and-go traffic on a limited-access road, for example. If it's a traffic jam where the maximum speed is 15 mph, why do we still have to have hands on the wheel and eyes on the road? They'd just need to work on the transition back to driver attention when the traffic jam starts to break up. Similarly, it would be nice if they improved Smart Summon so that it handled easy situations (maybe a deserted parking lot with few barriers) well enough to just trust it. Instead, a lot of effort seems to be going in to understanding every kind of strange conditional alternative stop sign that's ever been invented.


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## NEO (Jun 28, 2017)

Did any of you catch George Hotz on the 3rd Row Podcast? He certainly agrees that Waymo/lidar is a sham and that MobileEye isn't anything special. In his view, Tesla is Apple and his company, Comma.ai is Android. He feels his company will win the race because he is open source. I have no idea myself but just marvel at what the future holds. 
Third Row Tesla - Episode 17 - George Hotz - Autonomous Driving


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

DocScott said:


> While Tesla's approach has merit, I'd wish they'd modify it just a little to try to get us to L3 in more situations.


All I really want from a self-driving vehicle is L3 on limited-access highways, even if it's limited to good weather.

If the car can drive me across the continent while I sleep or work, then that would replace flying for me. All my vacations would become road trips.

I definitely feel that Tesla will get there before anybody else. Waymo could be there today if they wanted - they already have detailed maps of all major highways. But they're of the "L5-or-bust" mindset, unfortunately.


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

Reading back through this thread is interesting given what's happened since. Mobileye has made some major announcements of its plans. Waymo is working on its scale issues. Tesla has released FSD beta. Very different strategies.

I just read this EETimes article on AV trends for 2021. https://www.eetimes.com/2021-perspectives-where-autonomous-vehicles-will-stand/ I don't know anything about this guy but its interesting he does not mention Tesla at all even though there is a section on Personal AVs.


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## Needsdecaf (Dec 27, 2018)

garsh said:


> All I really want from a self-driving vehicle is L3 on limited-access highways, even if it's limited to good weather.
> 
> If the car can drive me across the continent while I sleep or work, then that would replace flying for me. All my vacations would become road trips.
> 
> I definitely feel that Tesla will get there before anybody else. Waymo could be there today if they wanted - they already have detailed maps of all major highways. But they're of the "L5-or-bust" mindset, unfortunately.


Good point.

What do people want out of FSD?

To me, any ADAS has to make my life easier, not more painful. I'd rather have a solid Level 3 that worked without fault on highways than a Level 2 that can operate everywhere. I don't know, local driving has never, ever bothered me. Unless I'm sitting in a traffic jam, I'm completely fine driving myself. And until I can trust a machine to make judgements at the same level that I can, my stress level isn't going to go down. Case in point, NOA. Sure, NOA works...mostly. But for me, it stressed me the heck out. I hated looking in the mirror, wondering if it's going to make the lane change before the bro-dozer barreling up on me is close enough to hit me. Or when it was going to get over to take the exit we needed. Or wondering why it was going 45 up the ramp when everyone else wanted to do 70. So yeah, it could drive me. But not well enough to make me relax.

FSD is right now a Level 2, and with increased amounts of time driving itself, it's going to be even harder to focus on watching it to make a mistake. The amount of hit / almost hit curbs, near misses with cars, that I have seen even with my limited amount of watching show me that the system may in the near term be a very capable Level 2 system, but it'll be a long time before I feel like using it will be a convenience to me. Something that relieves stress like TACC / AS do.

People seem to want a pod they can snooze in and arrive at their destination, like catching a train. To be honest, I see a long way to go before we are there. From anyone.


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## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

Needsdecaf said:


> People seem to want a pod they can snooze in and arrive at their destination, like catching a train


I bought FSD, and I'm not certain why other than FOMO. The truth is that I'd love to have a car that handles the long, boring, endless, Interstate drives. I'm more than happy to handle the short around town trips and the off-interstate drives that require more constant and varied attention. In fact, I enjoy that type of driving. So the truth is; Perfect NOA and I've got what I need/want. Not the FSD I paid for, but enough to meet my needs.

[edit] It would be extra cool if that perfected NOA included the ability to safely and legally sleep/read/pay no attention during those interstate rides; and I think that this is likely a service I have paid for. But I don't realistically expect this to happen before my car goes kaput.


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

Needsdecaf said:


> I'd rather have a solid Level 3 that worked without fault on highways than a Level 2 that can operate everywhere. I don't know, local driving has never, ever bothered me.


I've always assumed most people feel the same way. If that's true they keep raising the price without adding value for most people. But the take rate is pretty high. Maybe they believe the pod is coming soon. Maybe we'll find out if the take rate is holding tomorrow.


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## DocScott (Mar 6, 2019)

Needsdecaf said:


> I'd rather have a solid Level 3 that worked without fault on highways than a Level 2 that can operate everywhere.





M3OC Rules said:


> I've always assumed most people feel the same way.


Small sample size and not a scientific survey, but I put up a poll of what would induce people to buy FSD back in May of 2019. The number one result from people who did not already have FSD? "Door-to-door Navigate on Autopilot," which I gather some people thought of as the "pod," even though Navigate on Autopilot itself is only L2, and even though L5 was provided as a separate option in the poll;. L3 on limited-access highways came in second.

Tesla has since pushed to develop what that poll indicated would be the more popular choice. (Not because of a tiny poll, of course! I'm just saying that the tiny unscientific poll may reflect a broader reality in terms of what sounds enticing to people.)

Priroritizing door-to-door NOA didn't make any sense to me then, and it doesn't make any sense to me now, and so I haven't yet sprung for FSD. But it did win the poll...


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## ibgeek (Aug 26, 2019)

FRC said:


> I bought FSD, and I'm not certain why other than FOMO. The truth is that I'd love to have a car that handles the long, boring, endless, Interstate drives. I'm more than happy to handle the short around town trips and the off-interstate drives that require more constant and varied attention. In fact, I enjoy that type of driving. So the truth is; Perfect NOA and I've got what I need/want. Not the FSD I paid for, but enough to meet my needs.
> 
> [edit] It would be extra cool if that perfected NOA included the ability to safely and legally sleep/read/pay no attention during those interstate rides; and I think that this is likely a service I have paid for. But I don't realistically expect this to happen before my car goes kaput.


Yep that's exactly what I bought the car for. I don't want to be reliant on others for my transportation when I am no longer able to drive. And from what I have seen and heard from folks I know, it's going to happen.


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

DocScott said:


> Small sample size and not a scientific survey, but I put up a poll of what would induce people to buy FSD back in May of 2019. The number one result from people who did not already have FSD? "Door-to-door Navigate on Autopilot," which I gather some people thought of as the "pod," even though Navigate on Autopilot itself is only L2, and even though L5 was provided as a separate option in the poll;. L3 on limited-access highways came in second.
> 
> Tesla has since pushed to develop what that poll indicated would be the more popular choice. (Not because of a tiny poll, of course! I'm just saying that the tiny unscientific poll may reflect a broader reality in terms of what sounds enticing to people.)
> 
> Priroritizing door-to-door NOA didn't make any sense to me then, and it doesn't make any sense to me now, and so I haven't yet sprung for FSD. But it did win the poll...


That's right. I'm confused by that too. But I am the type that will use the heck out of it. I used to use basic cruise control all the time before I got the Tesla. Since day one I've used Autopilot pretty much anywhere I can. Downtown is generally too annoying but I certainly have used it there too. The stop sign/stop light is pretty annoying so I haven't used that much. I will use FSD beta a lot when I get it just because I want to watch it learn. But I would not recommend someone else get FSD that just looked at these things as useful features. 
I saw a video of a Cadillac engineer who worked on SuperCruise. He said he loved it of course but said he wishes he could use it on more roads. I would be exactly the same way. But to me the value is really the "pod". That's a fundamental change that working well totally changes things. The other stuff is gadgets. Autopilot already has 90% of the value.


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## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

ibgeek said:


> Yep that's exactly what I bought the car for. I don't want to be reliant on others for my transportation when I am no longer able to drive. And from what I have seen and heard from folks I know, it's going to happen.


That's cool. I've always envisioned a bunch of engineers saying it's going to take 5 more years while Elon publicly touts it being done in 1 year.


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