# TSLA Analyst Coverage - 2017 Q1



## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Thanks Elon for the $7 increase today! #profit


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Brian_North said:


> Thanks Elon for the $7 increase today! #profit


$8 as of now! 
Reaction to the odd FF reveal yesterday (no T≡SLA killer, again... ) or some inside information ahead of the Gigafactory 1 investors event today?


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> $8 as of now!
> Reaction to the odd FF reveal yesterday (no T≡SLA killer, again... ) or some inside information ahead of the Gigafactory 1 investors event today?


Could be the Ford announcement too. Stock fell yesterday and I felt it was the Ford thing and the Q4 missed deliveries but I'd see the other autos converting to EVs to boost Tesla. Shows that Tesla has been ahead of the curve and will be delivering tasty EV sales before anyone else (and has been, 80k EVs in a year is very impressive).

I'm actually considering dumping all my Model3 savings into the stock.


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## Gilberto Pe-Curto (Oct 20, 2016)

It's only profit when you sell it...


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Gilberto Pe-Curto said:


> It's only profit when you sell it...


Which I did .


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

Brian_North said:


> Which I did .


 When will you buy again?


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

MichelT3 said:


> When will you buy again?


That's a very good question! I've wondered that myself. Usually I try and eye up when it starts to slide and get in near the bottom of the slide but who knows. The Gigafactory being open is big news and if good news keeps coming I may just buy back in at the higher prices, never know. I do suspect a lull of activity until we hear about how they're handling Supercharging credits officially and probably a boost around then. So my prediction is it'll slide down to around 220 by next Monday.

I sort've go on the logic that anytime there is good news there is a bust shortly afterwards. Look at the Panasonic investment into the SCTY factory. It went up 3% or so and fell by 4% the next day and there wasn't really any obvious factor to me. Just the typical media nonsense .


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

Thanks @Brian_North. So I shouldn't hesitate much longer and count on future raises?


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

MichelT3 said:


> Thanks @Brian_North. So I shouldn't hesitate much longer and count on future raises?


It's difficult to say and I find analysts tend to be all over the place. If you look at the timeline we have the new SC program coming online in a few weeks that'll be viewed positively by the market most likely. We also have the second reveal probably end of March followed by prototypes and eventually production starting come July.

My expectations are the stock will go up quite a bit this year. Between the Tesla Energy stuff scaling up and making money, the Model 3 and maybe even announcements of future cars/ModelS/Roadster refresh, the solar roofs etc. Lots of good stuff this year. Chances are there will be some drops if the Model 3 expectations are being missed. Presently I plan to invest all my savings for the model3 (40k) into the stock sometime between now and the final reveal and take advantage of the large spike after the final reveal.


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

By final reveal you mean when delivery starts?


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

MichelT3 said:


> By final reveal you mean when delivery starts?


Meaning the final unveiling of the car or part3 as Elon would call it. Current expectation seems to be March31st ish which would make sense. If we're going to see final production starting around July1st~ then showing off the final specs of the car along with the finalized interior makes sense around 3-4 months before. It's hard to say if there will be a spike around July. I have a feeling there will be a big decline at some point in 2017 as there are a number of analysts that think Tesla is claiming they'll produce 500k cars in 2017 when they actually plan to do 500k (S, X and 3) in 2018. There will be the usual doomsday articles about missed delivery expectations no matter what.


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## Guy Weathersby (Jun 22, 2016)

Brian_North said:


> there are a number of analysts that think Tesla is claiming they'll produce 500k cars in 2017 when they actually plan to do 500k (S, X and 3) in 2018


My memory is that Tesla only commited to reaching an annualized production rate of 500K in 2018. But I could easily be confused.


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## AscendedSaiyan (Nov 7, 2016)

MichelT3 said:


> I should have bought a few weeks ago at 183, when I first thought I should!
> What now? Buy and hope for further raises, as suggested. Or wait and hope for a decline?


That's around the time frame I bought a little over 100 shares. I was dipping my toes in the water to see what would happen. It was too volatile to risk buying a lot more. Now, I wish I would've at least doubled up on that.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Constructive analysis on what should matter when assessing TSLA's further growth!

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/816914128681963522


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Guy Weathersby said:


> My memory is that Tesla only commited to reaching an annualized production rate of 500K in 2018. But I could easily be confused.


Thats my point. I read an article the other day (probably on Investor Place.. can't remember) that said Tesla was going to make 500k cars in 2017 and they're bound to miss that. There is a lot of confusion on how many Model3s to expect in 2k17. I'd say we'll be lucky to see 150k or so.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Brian_North said:


> There is a lot of confusion on how many Model3s to expect in 2k17. I'd say we'll be lucky to see 150k or so.


@Brian_North ... for sure! I'd say half of that would already be good... assuming production starts in 3Q & provisioning ramp-up (e.g. ~20k in 3Q, >50k in 4Q yet needing establish readiness to produce 100k/quarter as of 1Q18... more than double total T≡SLA sales in 2017 vs. 2016 (with Model S & X levels at least maintained)... Big impact on TSLA...


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> @Brian_North ... for sure! I'd say half of that would already be good... assuming production starts in 3Q & provisioning ramp-up (e.g. ~20k in 3Q, >50k in 4Q yet needing establish readiness to produce 100k/quarter as of 1Q18... more than double total T≡SLA sales in 2017 vs. 2016 (with Model S & X levels at least maintained)... Big impact on TSLA...


Tis going to be a huge year! Yeah I think anything more then 50k Model3s in 2017 is going to be a huge step forward and they seem to be gearing up to crank em out like pies.


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

I agree. 
Do the math. We shouldn't be too optimistic.The aim for 2018 was 500k. It's not sure that could/will be reached. Plus, that's for all models,
Let's say 125k in 4Q2018, 100k in 3 & 2Q2018, 75k in 1Q2018. That is 400k cars in total, all models. Minus 80k MS & X, leaves 320k Model 3 in 2018. 
So 50k Model 3 in 2017 (5k + 45k) will already be a huge success imho. 
By the end of 2018 the first month of reservation (380k) will be dealt with in this scenario. 
I prefer to be pleasantly surprised.


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

MichelT3 said:


> I agree.
> Do the math. We shouldn't be too optimistic.The aim for 2018 was 500k. It's not sure that could/will be reached. Plus, that's for all models,
> Let's say 125k in 4Q2018, 100k in 3 & 2Q2018, 75k in 1Q2018. That is 400k cars in total, all models. Minus 80k MS & X, leaves 320k Model 3 in 2018.
> So 50k Model 3 in 2017 (5k + 45k) will already be a huge success imho.
> ...


Agree. I'm actually very impressed so far.. if there were huge problems coming to production they'd be starting to temper expectations now as they know how much is riding on this. I had been anticipating a spring/summer 2018 delivery for me and I'm more thinking later 2017 or early 2018 at this point.

Down about $3 today. Seems to be a trend. Good news spikes it and it settles down after.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Now here is a (very) encouraging message for those who have money to spare... 
http://m.nasdaq.com/article/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-stock-is-set-to-take-off-cm730204


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## Ip Man (Jan 7, 2017)

Remember - Elon might horde the model 3 to give all early reservations to get full tax incentives-federal.
I expect a small 20k in 2017 and mass shipping spring 2018. It is rumored that Tesla has reserved $100m for shipping spring 2018.


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Invested every dollar I could today and plan to leave it for the long term. After watching it for the last week along with reading a ton of articles I'm pretty confident 2017 will just be a big uptick for Tesla. There will be dips but I don't think it'll be as volatile as it has been which enabled me to get some sortterm gains. Probably just hangon to the shares for a long time (thinking near delivery). Might sell off a few here or there for short term profits if needed.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Folks, I have a feeling the number of positive, more bullish articles on TSLA are becoming more frequent... that in itself is also a very encouraging sign!! 
Check this one out!
http://investorplace.com/2017/01/tsla-stock-tesla-motors-inc-gigafactory/#.WHQGKiakqaM


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## KennethK (Oct 13, 2016)

Elon did say we would be happy after the merger meeting.


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## Hezekiah (Jan 10, 2017)

I've never bought stock before. I'm not great about handling risk. But I've watched this stock since the 3 reveal, and I wish I had bought it back then! 
I think I'm going to seriously look into how/where to buy stock so I'll be ready. I'm hoping there's no Tesla news for a few months up to the final reveal, and I can buy it sub 200 and then hold on. 

What I'm not sure on is why Tesla stock dove from 209 to 143 last year between January first and February 10. Does anyone know? 
From that date through all of March it climbed, mainly in preparation for a well received reveal. 
I'd really like to know about that dip in January and the first third of February.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Hezekiah said:


> I think I'm going to seriously look into how/where to buy stock so I'll be ready.


there are various options, but Robinhood is a free trading app I've used for a while. no fees per trade, to add cash or to cash out. no fees makes it easier to buy small $ amounts of shares at a time compared to some of the more traditional brokerage accounts with a per transaction fee. 
So if you wanted to buy a single share of $MSTX, currently at 0.17, you could (disclaimer - I don't know anything about $MSTX besides it coming up on a quick google search for cheap stock, but it has nearly doubled in value since last week's 0.08!)



Hezekiah said:


> What I'm not sure on is why Tesla stock dove from 209 to 143 last year between January first and February 10. Does anyone know?


Pretty sure that was Model X delivery delays


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Hezekiah said:


> I'm hoping there's no Tesla news for a few months up to the final reveal, and I can buy it sub 200 and then hold on.


If Tesla actually does become a 500,000 cars per year manufacturer, the stock is going to take off again, similar to the huge jump it saw when they started making Model S's. If you believe that this will happen, then don't worry too much about the buy price.

That said, my advice would be:

Buy before the next reveal (my guess would be end of March).
If you must wait for a lower price, buy at any downturn. Don't worry too much about it getting down to a certain level.
I originally bought some at 220, then I doubled-down when it dropped below 200 on some bad news.


> What I'm not sure on is why Tesla stock dove from 209 to 143 last year between January first and February 10. Does anyone know?


Don't try to make too much sense of the stock market. That way lies madness. A stock's price is determined by the people who want to buy or sell it at any particular point in time. The people who already bought it and are just holding onto it don't factor in at all (other than limiting the supply available for buying).


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Garsh has good advice. Really good news usually means the price going up and vice versa for bad news but a competitor having issues can also be a boost. Generally the stock has followed the price of gas as the more gas costs the more tempting EVs are. Personally I think 210 or 220 would be as low as it'd go. With Tesla Energy stuff starting to really ramp up they've got some solid products and sales coming from things besides cars now.

Just don't stress yourself out. I've got 135 shares ATM and plan to just hangon to them or buy more if they get really cheap. The second reveal will cause it to jump 10% or more I'd wager and once deliveries start even more.


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

Brian_North said:


> Garsh has good advice. Really good news usually means the price going up and vice versa for bad news but a competitor having issues can also be a boost. Generally the stock has followed the price of gas as the more gas costs the more tempting EVs are. Personally I think 210 or 220 would be as low as it'd go. With Tesla Energy stuff starting to really ramp up they've got some solid products and sales coming from things besides cars now.
> 
> Just don't stress yourself out. I've got 135 shares ATM and plan to just hangon to them or buy more if they get really cheap. The second reveal will cause it to jump 10% or more I'd wager and once deliveries start even more.


Wow! That's currently the larger part of the baseprice of the Model 3. Of course hoping for a significant increase. You are really betting on Model 3 / Tesla's succes!

€ 231 at this moment. One steady climb since the beginning of December, when it was € 181, when you started buying. Well done!


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

MichelT3 said:


> Wow! That's currently the larger part of the baseprice of the Model 3. Of course hoping for a significant increase. You are really betting on Model 3 / Tesla's succes!
> 
> € 231 at this moment. One steady climb since the beginning of December, when it was € 181, when you started buying. Well done!


Wish I waited til today haha. Kept waiting for a larger decline to jump in so my position wasn't at the top level of where the price has been but still it was at 260 at one point.

Yeah I'm in a fortunate position. Owning a Tesla has long been my dream and thanks to 2016's successes managed to put enough away. I figure that money is just for the 3. Have no other inteitions for it so why let it rot in a savings account. I'll put my money where my mouth is and see what happens! If the deliveries happen roughly ontime ~6 months and there aren't big production issues I don't see how the stock won't see a 50-100% increase over todays value.

Plus I want to get a lot of options haha. Idea currently is 40k cash, 14k government rebate and 10k~ish from my current ICE. Should get a pretty awesome 3. If I can make 25% or so on the stock in the next 12-14 months even better!


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## Guy Weathersby (Jun 22, 2016)

garsh said:


> If Tesla actually does become a 500,000 cars per year manufacturer, the stock is going to take off again, similar to the huge jump it saw when they started making Model S's. If you believe that this will happen, then don't worry too much about the buy price.
> 
> That said, my advice would be:
> 
> ...


Good advice. I have had good luck following the old Wall Street adage, "time is more important than timing." If you like the company, buy it, you may pay a few points more than if you wait for a dip, but you don't risk missing the big gains.

Kind of boring, I guess.


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## Hezekiah (Jan 10, 2017)

Guy Weathersby said:


> Good advice. I have had good luck following the old Wall Street adage, "time is more important than timing." If you like the company, buy it, you may pay a few points more than if you wait for a dip, but you don't risk missing the big gains.
> 
> Kind of boring, I guess.


Yeah, I like to make money the boring ways  that way I can keep more of it.


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## Hezekiah (Jan 10, 2017)

MelindaV said:


> there are various options, but Robinhood is a free trading app I've used for a while. no fees per trade, to add cash or to cash out. no fees makes it easier to buy small $ amounts of shares at a time compared to some of the more traditional brokerage accounts with a per transaction fee.
> So if you wanted to buy a single share of $MSTX, currently at 0.17, you could (disclaimer - I don't know anything about $MSTX besides it coming up on a quick google search for cheap stock, but it has nearly doubled in value since last week's 0.08!)
> 
> Pretty sure that was Model X delivery delays


Thanks for the tip, Robinhood sounds like what I was looking for. I'll have to check it out. Maybe I'll lower my expectations and up my buy threshold. I'd just like to get a decent deal on the stock just in case I sissy out and want to sell after the reveal. I plan on holding it long term, but if I find it stressful I might just sell when it looks good and end my wall street career


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## Kizzy (Jul 25, 2016)

MelindaV said:


> there are various options, but Robinhood is a free trading app I've used for a while. no fees per trade, to add cash or to cash out. no fees makes it easier to buy small $ amounts of shares at a time compared to some of the more traditional brokerage accounts with a per transaction fee.
> So if you wanted to buy a single share of $MSTX, currently at 0.17, you could (disclaimer - I don't know anything about $MSTX besides it coming up on a quick google search for cheap stock, but it has nearly doubled in value since last week's 0.08!)
> 
> Pretty sure that was Model X delivery delays


Eeee! I lost all my money from fees last time I played the stock market. This is a cool app! I'm excited to be dabbling again. Thank you!


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Pretty cool Robinhood does free trades. I use Investorline which costs 10 bucks a trade but it doesn't matter the volume and you pay no commission. I've found an odd downside in that they automatically convert my money back and forth from US to Canadian. They do it at the actual exchange rate which is nice but still.. odd for an account they claim can hold USD and CAD. They customer service claims the money isn't there for settlement.. uhh I sold some shares.. fine if it takes a few days to settle but why convert?


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

Brian_North said:


> Pretty cool Robinhood does free trades. I use Investorline which costs 10 bucks a trade but it doesn't matter the volume and you pay no commission. I've found an odd downside in that they automatically convert my money back and forth from US to Canadian. They do it at the actual exchange rate which is nice but still.. odd for an account they claim can hold USD and CAD. They customer service claims the money isn't there for settlement.. uhh I sold some shares.. fine if it takes a few days to settle but why convert?


Hey Brian. I am also with Investorline. I have mine setup with a US account and CDN account. You can see the balance of both accounts from your home page.

When you are making the purchase of TSLA it asks you what settlement funds you would like to use, US or CDN. It appears you chose CND funds. In that case it would convert your CDN funds to US and make the purchase. When you sell it will be in US dollars. If your choose US funds (Unless you have some US funds in your account) it basically lends you the US funds to make the purchase using your CDN funds as leverage and then charge you interest on the US funds you basically borrowed. Doesn't make sense though if you are long on this to keep paying interest on funds you have in the account just in a different currency.


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Steve C said:


> Hey Brian. I am also with Investorline. I have mine setup with a US account and CDN account. You can see the balance of both accounts from your home page.
> 
> When you are making the purchase of TSLA it asks you what settlement funds you would like to use, US or CDN. It appears you chose CND funds. In that case it would convert your CDN funds to US and make the purchase. When you sell it will be in US dollars. If your choose US funds (Unless you have some US funds in your account) it basically lends you the US funds to make the purchase using your CDN funds as leverage and then charge you interest on the US funds you basically borrowed. Doesn't make sense though if you are long on this to keep paying interest on funds you have in the account just in a different currency.


I think I get confused as you can pick which settlement you want twice. I usually leave it as CAD when buying the stock and US when selling it. I figure if I can hold US funds in the account why not settle back to USD and avoid converting back to CAD if I'm just going to buy back into the stock a week later when the price dips. I suspect I'm just confused on the whole settlement process. So far I've not seen any interest charges so I must be doing something right.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

The maintained EPA standards behind today's TSLA rally? What do you guys think?
Check out the embedded Bloomberg article embedded in the Reddit post...

__
https://www.reddit.com/r/path%3D%252Fr%252Fteslamotors%252Fcomments%252F5nr8s2%252F


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> The maintained EPA standards behind today's TSLA rally? What do you guys think?
> Check out the embedded Bloomberg article embedded in the Reddit post...
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/path%3D%252Fr%252Fteslamotors%252Fcomments%252F5nr8s2%252F


I rated this '"Love it", because it shows Tesla to be doing good. But I actually 'hate' it, because I still haven't bought shares...
Are you selling now @Brian_North ? To buy back later when it drops again.


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> The maintained EPA standards behind today's TSLA rally? What do you guys think?
> Check out the embedded Bloomberg article embedded in the Reddit post...
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/path%3D%252Fr%252Fteslamotors%252Fcomments%252F5nr8s2%252F


Ok. So here are my thoughts.

I own more shares than I can really afford so I keep an eye on the stock sometimes minute to minute.

I believe the price rose initially due to two things.
1 - they started charging for using the supercharger. That's only good news if you are a shareholder. This whole time tesla has been footing most of the bill if not all.
2 - The new ludicrous+. Already the quickest car in the world just got quicker.

Then that news release came out. It went from up $5 to closing up more than $8.

I would not recommend selling right now. There are so many things to come and he is unpredictable. It's not a great buy price but, one day we will look back and kick ourselves for not buying more.

I can see it going up $40 from today's close to the day after the 3rd reveal. (April 3rd is my bet for the first trading day after the reveal). I'm also being quite conservative on my estimate.

Just to clarify, I do my own investing. I'm not in the business. Do your own due diligence.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Steve C said:


> 1 - they started charging for using the supercharger. That's only good news if you are a shareholder. This whole time tesla has been footing most of the bill if not all.


Yeah, I think this is the main reason why the stock jumped today.


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

MichelT3 said:


> I rated this '"Love it", because it shows Tesla to be doing good. But I actually 'hate' it, because I still haven't bought shares...
> Are you selling now @Brian_North ? To buy back later when it drops again.


I did sell haha. I know I said I'd hangon for awhile but with as much computer time as I get watching it moment to moment doesn't hurt. There was 3 times last week it dropped by 3-5 dollars and went back up by the end of the day. Can't spend time speculating but those 3 trades would've made me a fair bit of money. I'm not really too concerned about the general upward trajectory as really all it means for me is that I'd be owning less shares at some point.

I'd imagine the main reason for the rise is the Supercharger news. The moment people hear Tesla is trying to monetize something they start buying shares even though they don't do the math and see its selling the electricity at a loss still. Don't tell them! . It's great it'll help expand the SC network but I doubt they actually realize it's not an attempt to generate more revenue.

I expect like any Tesla news we'll see an inevitable drop Monday. Maybe a new resting rate of 232 instead of the 227 or so it has been.


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

Brian_North said:


> I did sell haha. I know I said I'd hangon for awhile but with as much computer time as I get watching it moment to moment doesn't hurt. There was 3 times last week it dropped by 3-5 dollars and went back up by the end of the day. Can't spend time speculating but those 3 trades would've made me a fair bit of money. I'm not really too concerned about the general upward trajectory as really all it means for me is that I'd be owning less shares at some point.
> 
> I'd imagine the main reason for the rise is the Supercharger news. The moment people hear Tesla is trying to monetize something they start buying shares even though they don't do the math and see its selling the electricity at a loss still. Don't tell them! . It's great it'll help expand the SC network but I doubt they actually realize it's not an attempt to generate more revenue.
> 
> I expect like any Tesla news we'll see an inevitable drop Monday. Maybe a new resting rate of 232 instead of the 227 or so it has been.


I used to buy on the dips and sell on the highs. It's a bit entertaining to be honest. Especially when you hit it right a few times.

I've stopped doing that for the last few months as I expect the news releases to keep coming. There will be a lull between news releases but I don't want to gamble and miss a news release in between selling and buying back. He's very unpredictable with his tweets lol.

It's a hold for me now. I'm just enjoying the green on my investment page.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

A rather pessimistic view, which denotes in an otherwise increasingly encouraging climate...
One major flaw I see in the rationale: if Model ≡ is not a car the (global...) market wants and was the _wrong one to build next_ rather than another smaller SUV, tell me again why T≡SLA got close to 400k reservations in two months (& probably well over half a million by now...!)? Not to say that in due course, at least as many Model Y can't be sold... 
In addition, while the base is announced for $35k, everybody knows there will be many more expensive highly equipped (hence lucrative) Model ≡s...
Finally, if you already have S and X, it seems a proper sequence to go for ≡ _before_ Y, no?  
http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-may-not-be-able-to-afford-to-make-model-3-2017-1?r=US&IR=T


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Steve C said:


> I used to buy on the dips and sell on the highs. It's a bit entertaining to be honest. Especially when you hit it right a few times.
> 
> I've stopped doing that for the last few months as I expect the news releases to keep coming. There will be a lull between news releases but I don't want to gamble and miss a news release in between selling and buying back. He's very unpredictable with his tweets lol.
> 
> It's a hold for me now. I'm just enjoying the green on my investment page.


I wish I bought in at the 180~ low and held. It took me a few weeks to get my Investorline stuff opened as it was a busy time for them and by that point it was back to 190s. I'm planning to do a few more trades and hold until after the reveal as I'd suspect it'll hit a new alltime high.


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> A rather pessimistic view, which denotes in an otherwise increasingly encouraging climate...
> One major flaw I see in the rationale: if Model ≡ is not a car the (global...) market wants and was the _wrong one to build next_ rather than another smaller SUV, tell me again why T≡SLA got close to 400k reservations in two months (& probably well over half a million by now...!)? Not to say that in due course, at least as many Model Y can't be sold...
> In addition, while the base is announced for $35k, everybody knows there will be many more expensive highly equipped (hence lucrative) Model ≡s...
> Finally, if you already have S and X, it seems a proper sequence to go for ≡ _before_ Y, no?
> http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-may-not-be-able-to-afford-to-make-model-3-2017-1?r=US&IR=T


Interesting article but yeah the preorders prove that analyst wrong. If the Y happened to come out first I would've ordered one instead but still. Just means I need air suspension to set it nice and high. I hate getting down into a vehicle. Being 6'3 it's not fun!


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

Brian_North said:


> Interesting article but yeah the preorders prove that analyst wrong. If the Y happened to come out first I would've ordered one instead but still. Just means I need air suspension to set it nice and high. I hate getting down into a vehicle. Being 6'3 it's not fun!


What I would give for another inch or two


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

Brian_North said:


> I wish I bought in at the 180~ low and held. It took me a few weeks to get my Investorline stuff opened as it was a busy time for them and by that point it was back to 190s. I'm planning to do a few more trades and hold until after the reveal as I'd suspect it'll hit a new alltime high.


I've been accumulating shares once it started coming down after the initial model 3 reveal.

My average cost is $205 which I'm happy with. I wish I had held way back when I was able to grab it for $110.

Anyone else willing to share their average price of their TSLA shares? No pressure. It is a private matter for some.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Brian_North said:


> Interesting article but yeah the preorders prove that analyst wrong. If the Y happened to come out first I would've ordered one instead but still. Just means I need air suspension to set it nice and high. I hate getting down into a vehicle. Being 6'3 it's not fun!


and I want air suspension for the opposite reason - I hate feeling like I'm driving a cargo van that sits up high. I'd much rather have a car solidly 'grounded' a couple inches off the pavement. Not to mention, it's fun to watch the 6'-3" passengers grumble about getting in and out 

my average price is right there with @Steve C, at $204 (precisely $204.07 unless I end up getting any more).
Shares I've picked up ranged from a high of $225 to a low of $184. Since the reveal, I've been adding a single share now and then to supplement my downpayment savings. I do not have a ton into it, but enough when the daily price changes a a few dollars you can see a nice jump in the grand total.


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

MelindaV said:


> and I want air suspension for the opposite reason - I hate feeling like I'm driving a cargo van that sits up high. I'd much rather have a car solidly 'grounded' a couple inches off the pavement. Not to mention, it's fun to watch the 6'-3" passengers grumble about getting in and out
> 
> my average price is right there with @Steve C, at $204 (precisely $204.07 unless I end up getting any more).
> Shares I've picked up ranged from a high of $225 to a low of $184. Since the reveal, I've been adding a single share now and then to supplement my downpayment savings. I do not have a ton into it, but enough when the daily price changes a a few dollars you can see a nice jump in the grand total.


@MelindaV that is a very expensive way to buy shares unless you have free trading. For me it's 9.95 pre trade and that just basically adds it to the cost of the share. The least I will buy at a time is 10. That way I'm only adding $1 per share for the cost of aquiring it.

Nice average price though!! I am very similar to you in highs and lows.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Steve C said:


> @MelindaV that is a very expensive way to buy shares unless you have free trading. For me it's 9.95 pre trade and that just basically adds it to the cost of the share. The least I will buy at a time is 10. That way I'm only adding $1 per share for the cost of aquiring it.
> 
> Nice average price though!! I am very similar to you in highs and lows.


yeah - 100% free of fees, otherwise I'd not be picking them up $200 at a time


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

And yet another nice one to add to the bulls collection!! 
http://www.profitconfidential.com/stock/tsla-stock-3-reasons-bullish-tesla-motors-inc-2017/


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> And yet another nice one to add to the bulls collection!!
> http://www.profitconfidential.com/stock/tsla-stock-3-reasons-bullish-tesla-motors-inc-2017/


As usual they hardly seem to know what they're talking about.
_"The Gigafactory is complete" _ .... 
But of course I hope that the conclusion stands.


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

MichelT3 said:


> As usual they hardly seem to know what they're talking about.
> _"The Gigafactory is complete" _ ....
> But of course I hope that the conclusion stands.


It is sometimes baffling to read articles on Tesla. It's like they spent 5 minutes researching.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

:rainbow:


MichelT3 said:


> As usual they hardly seem to know what they're talking about.
> _"The Gigafactory is complete" _ ....
> But of course I hope that the conclusion stands.


I viewed it as a Freudian slip...  'operational' would of course have been more accurate and, IMHO, I guess that _is_ what he intended here, 'cause, let's face it, it was a great piece of (recent) news! :sunrise::rainbow::fireworks:


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Another robust day... + 5% in 5 days, +17% in 30 days!! And it gets more & more attention! 

http://www.profitconfidential.com/stock/tesla-motors-inc-this-is-why-tesla-stock-is-on-a-roll/

http://www.businessinsider.com/teslas-analyst-adam-jonas-raises-rating-on-stock-shares-rise-2017-1


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Again, a nice way to close the week with bullish spirit... and I am staying away from the politics, however challenging it is today! 
http://www.barrons.com/articles/the-surprising-reason-tesla-could-jump-25-1484861654


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Wow. Even Yahoo Finance writes good stuff now?! Next thing you know, MontanaSkeptic at SeekingAlpha will build a shrine to Elon? 
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-teslas-recent-stock-rally-151100089.html


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Adding Trev's tweet into this collection, for those of you who missed it on Twitter!
The video is >80' long, yet _super interesting _as Andrea James, who started to cover T≡SLA in 2010, explains how she changed from being sceptical after her first analysis report. Then, upon (initially easy) access to the company & further fact checking, she got increasingly convinced (& a converted!) that 'T≡SLA can do this!'
The Aug. 2016 interview also provides some really good insights on what makes Wall Street tick and what this implies for analysts on expectations of them when it comes to advice on risk management!
Enjoy! 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/822935984765566976


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

As a new trading week is starting, thought this analysis, though from SA, was worth a quick read... very positive though with a taunt of conservatism to be expected from a Wall St. analyst (as explained by Andrea James - if you haven't seen her interview as tweeted by Trev, cf. Post #124 above, I strongly recommend you take the time to do so! )
The Next Catalyst That Will Drive Tesla Shares Higher? $TSLA
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4040494


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

After my wife bought me some Tesla apparel for Christmas I got to thinking again.

These clothes are really nice, and high quality. Tesla is probably making more money (margin wise) on their apparel then their cars. At the very least it help's fund the stores and employee's.

The clothes are so nice that little by little they could become a bigger factor on their income. The apparel is often sold out for good reason. Once the Model 3 gets out, there will likely be a bigger surge in apparel (and profits).

Any way that Tesla can fund the stores, service centre's and superchargers is good for investors and good for me.

I realize this is not Lulu Lemon..... but it's close!


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

And yet another more positive opinion, with key reasons - reported by others previously - why TSLA shareholders have reasons to feel good this year.
https://www.smarteranalyst.com/2017...otors-inc-tsla-risk-taking-will-pay-off-2017/
As already stated, more bullish opinions seem to become increasingly prevalent... I can't wait for the next reveal soon...


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

And yet...? On to a 'healthy pullback ahead of Feb. 8 earnings release ? Now is the time for some beta sightings!! 
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13970393/1/is-it-time-for-tesla-to-recharge-its-batteries.html


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> And yet...? On to a 'healthy pullback ahead of Feb. 8 earnings release ? Now is the time for some beta sightings!!
> https://www.thestreet.com/story/13970393/1/is-it-time-for-tesla-to-recharge-its-batteries.html


Pretty solid opinion there. I'm in agreement that a fallback to 235-237 is probably expected in the near future. Have to see how the earnings call goes and any interesting tidbits. Probably a rally a few weeks before the final reveal.


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

Back up a little bit today, again above 252.


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

MichelT3 said:


> Back up a little bit today, again above 252.


Ya... that was unexpected. I love it, but I'm not sure why. I love the article I just read saying that the shorts' are back huge. When the final reveal happens the price will jump for both reasons..... the unbelievable Model 3  and the shorts covering. IMHO


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## Badback (Apr 7, 2016)

I hope that they take it in the...ah..shorts.


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## Kennethbokor (Apr 4, 2016)

I fully expect the stock to continue to climb this year overall. BTW, I am long on Tesla Stock. How much will really depend on M3 deliveries this FY and overall sales. We'll keep watching.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

I truly wonder at times where in the world some people find such preposterous ideas?!
http://investorplace.com/2017/02/volkswagen-vlkay-tesla-motors-inc-tsla-stock/2/

As if someone who just declared: 
'(...) My goals are to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy and to make humanity a multi-planet civilization (...)'
is in it to become filthy rich...!! 
'_Then Elon Musk makes a fortune and plows part of his money into SpaceX, before convincing Chinese investors - who are desperate to get their money out of the country - to buy out that company, too._'

Shameful implications...


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## Badback (Apr 7, 2016)

How is Tesla a government subsidized company?


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Some more Sparks D) from Motley Fool... 
Not badly written though I had to chuckle at the forecasted (wide) range of production for 2017... 115-200k?! Like saying it will be between 75 and 105deg. F in LA this coming July 4... 
http://m.nasdaq.com/article/tesla-inc-earnings-model-3-to-come-into-focus-cm743203


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## lolCat (Feb 6, 2017)

My TSLA average cost of ownership is $187

i have another order waiting to buy at around $212 again , any chance this is possible ?


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

lolCat said:


> My TSLA average cost of ownership is $187
> 
> i have another order waiting to buy at around $212 again , any chance this is possible ?


I'd like to think $212 is behind us but.... expect a lull now until the final reveal.... unless there are more announcements between now and then.

I expect a $20 up or down until the announcement. After the final reveal.... it's anyone's guess. Mine would be $300 in the week following the reveal.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Steve C said:


> I'd like to think $212 is behind us but.... expect a lull now until the final reveal.... unless there are more announcements between now and then.
> I expect a $20 up or down until the announcement. After the final reveal.... it's anyone's guess. Mine would be $300 in the week following the reveal.


Directionally, see it the same way... won't argue about the numbers...  Would just add the +/- $20 to the €300 estimate, soon after the next reveal... to the extent it happens per plan i.e. by around end March...


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## TE3LA (Apr 3, 2016)

I'm getting on this thread late and have not looked at all of the posts, so forgive me if this issue has all ready been discussed, but most of the analysts valuations of TSLA stock that I have looked at do not even consider the potential of Tesla energy (powerwalls, powerpacks & Solar City) in valuing the company. This seems to me extraordinarily short sighted. Maybe thats just the nature of the short term market analysis.

I did find this interview of Ron Barron who is betting to make 30-50 times his investment in the next 15 years. (He has a 300 million dollar position in TSLA at average of about $200/share) 




Anybody aware of any other analysts/investors willing to speculate on the long game?


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

TE3LA said:


> I'm getting on this thread late and have not looked at all of the posts, so forgive me if this issue has all ready been discussed, but most of the analysts valuations of TSLA stock that I have looked at do not even consider the potential of Tesla energy (powerwalls, powerpacks & Solar City) in valuing the company. This seems to me extraordinarily short sighted. Maybe thats just the nature of the short term market analysis.
> 
> I did find this interview of Ron Barron who is betting to make 30-50 times his investment in the next 15 years. (He has a 300 million dollar position in TSLA at average of about $200/share)
> 
> ...


I'm with Barron. Long run will pay off huge.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

TE3LA said:


> (...)
> I did find this interview of Ron Barron who is betting to make 30-50 times his investment in the next 15 years. (He has a $300M position in TSLA at average of about $200/share)
> 
> 
> ...


Thanks... have not found many in the series I've seen... Though the # of more positive ones in proportion to the others seem to have increased in the last two months... and wait to see things after the now sooner next reveal!!


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## Badback (Apr 7, 2016)

The opinions of analysts keep me up at night, usually between 12:00 and 12:02, when I take my first pee.

Note to Trevor: No mammalian body parts were mentioned in the writing of this post.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Apart from a leap of faith in converting the Oct.23 $690M deposits into 700k Model ≡ reservations, this article sheds an interesting light on the role of the short sellers and how TSLA success may leave them with a bad taste in their mouth...
http://investorplace.com/2017/02/tesla-inc-tsla-stock-shorts-model-3-news/2/
And while I'm rambling on, TSLA just hit $270, up 3% since yesterday!


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

This has been a great week xD


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## Gary Moore (Apr 10, 2016)

Brian_North said:


> This has been a great week xD


In 1969, a certain mission commander from Ohio (the state into which I was born) got to be the first human to trample across the lunar surface. I was at the time a college co-op engineering student.

That same year, I saw the Unimate robots installed to perform the framing line production spot welding in the body shop of GM's car assembly plant in Lordstown, Ohio. Fisher Body Lordstown at that time was my co-op sponsor. In a few weeks, the plant where I worked was building vehicles at about twice the production speed that other typical automotive factories were.

I was assisting the Fisher Body plant superintendent that year. He gave me the phone extension number for Conveyor Control, and told me to find out for him what the line speed was. Since the extension was an unlisted number, nobody answering the phone there ever expected to be talking to anyone below the rank of general foreman. The controller picked up, gave me the line speed, and then asked if I wanted to change it. I adlibbed, and told him, "Thank you, that's all for now." Reality is not what everyone expects it to be.

When the future arrives, it's always exciting. With the lunar landing, most people watching television did not realize the that countdown being broadcast to them live was not the time until touchdown, but the time until the Eagle's landing rockets would run out of fuel. The more you know about know what's really happening, the more exciting it is.

Experience tells me that the next two weeks in Fremont will be very exciting, especially if you're on the plant floor.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Short but inspiring video with someone who's got clarity of sight. Love how she rebutts the other guy favoring Ford instead!


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

Steve C said:


> After my wife bought me some Tesla apparel for Christmas I got to thinking again.
> 
> These clothes are really nice, and high quality. Tesla is probably making more money (margin wise) on their apparel then their cars. At the very least it help's fund the stores and employee's.
> 
> ...


I believe it has been expressed at times that such items are responsible for the enormous profits that Porsche sees. So, yeah... They are marketed as a sports car firm, but they are now actually an SUV company with curio shops attached. It is a winning formula that makes them extremely profitable, even in the wake of the Panamera getting soundly trounced by the Model S in sales year in and year out.


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

Badback said:


> How is Tesla a government subsidized company?


Those who live on _'Alternative Facts'_ have a hard time dealing with the revelation of _'Actual Facts'_ it seems. They want so much to *BELIEVE* that Tesla is _'The Other Government Motors'_ that they do no research and just repeat FUD. I'm sure there are some guys that are against Tesla for what they honestly believe are philosophical reasons. But I don't believe that they all understand that their opinions are being sorely manipulated by liars who say all the right wrong things to train their known bias against Tesla. Rather than repeating the FUD, I just try to combat it with the facts. I can only hope that works from time-to-time.

Here is a recently posted example from the Comments section of an article elsewhere:
Actually, the one program that Tesla benefited most from was established during the President George Washington Bush Administration. You can read about the Advanced Vehicle Technology Manufacturing (AVTM) loan program at the Department of Energy's website, if it hasn't been fully scrubbed of those pesky 'Actual Facts' in favor of 'Alternative Facts' by the current Trump Administration in recent weeks.

Oh, and Tesla paid back their loan in 2013, almost four years ago now, and ten years early. Ford hasn't paid back the 12 times larger amount they got from the same program, though they did create the Focus Electric, C-MAX Energi, and Fusion Energi.

Oh, and the CARB ZEV Credit system was established during the President George Herbert Walker Bush Administration, in 1990. Thirteen years before Tesla was founded. And 18 years before their first car reached the market.

Oh, and there is no 'suddenly explode' function... Unless you mean how people receive a warning that there is a problem and that they should pull over and exit the vehicle safely... And then the car might smolder a bit, before catching aflame some fifteen minutes later or so. Meanwhile, there are hundreds of Internal Combustion Engine vehicle fires every single day.​


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## Gilberto Pe-Curto (Oct 20, 2016)

If only I understood a bit of financial markets


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

OMG!!!


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Well my budget for Model3 has gone up significantly recently lol. I did sell all my shares today. We're due for a price correction.


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

Brian_North said:


> Well my budget for Model3 has gone up significantly recently lol. I did sell all my shares today. We're due for a price correction.


I expect that TSLA will be _'correcting'_ to 320+... _SOON_.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

I'm holding until after I get my Model 3. If Tesla actually delivers anywhere close to on-time, and anywhere close to the numbers they're saying, then I expect those shares to jump a lot more.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

More details... As I wrote elsewhere, I'd hold on to my shares if I had any... Actually, if I had guts... and/or less family responsibilities ... I'd probably sink my leftover 10 grand into TSLA still now... 
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/13/tesl...less-than-4-percent-from-all-time-record.html


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Red Sage said:


> I expect that TSLA will be _'correcting'_ to 320+... _SOON_.


Probably near the final reveal but before then we've got another quarter where earnings will most likely be missed. We'll see. It'll be interesting to see if any model3 news during the call will counteract that.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

the stock app I use always has 4 or 5 headlines for each stock and I had to laugh at the ultimate naysayer on Tesla this morning. "Will Tesla Achieve Its 2017 Unite Guidance? Not a Chance"
In the 'article' it quotes the EM quote from last spring on anticipating 100-200k Model ☰s in the second half of this year and equates that to 150k (valid). Then proceeds to say they expect maybe couple hundred at most to be delivered and go on and on how Tesla quotes build numbers vs delivery numbers and how if they state they have 50k vehicles in transit, nobody should believe them. (all paraphrasing from what I read at 5am with one eye still asleep, so don't quote me)
Overall, it was a bit of a schizophrenic jumping all over the place sort of writing, throwing as many negatives in as possible, even for said naysayer, but overall I found it humorous. 
since reading it, it's gone up $6...........


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## lolCat (Feb 6, 2017)

*sigh* $TSLA is goin nuts over the past few weeks, wonder why there are so many believers suddenly.

My dreams of buying around $200 have been dashed


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

lolCat said:


> *sigh* $TSLA is goin nuts over the past few weeks, wonder why there are so many believers suddenly.
> 
> My dreams of buying around $200 have been dashed


I believe that the no longer free Supercharger situation has mostly become a sort of placebo effect for investors who wrongly believe that levying fees for electricity will somehow allow Tesla to become _'The NeXT EXXON!!!'_ for electric vehicles. That has probably fueled quite a bit of the recent fervor over TSLA as the stock price has continued to climb. I doubt the expense of Superchargers would ever have been a real burden on Tesla anyway, even with the release of Model ☰. You might have to wait until the entire stock market crashes again, as it id about a year ago due to concerns over the financial situation in China _(around February 5-12, 2016)_, before TSLA is below $200 once more.


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

Here is some absolutely laughingly stupid FUD from about a year ago. Click at your own risk. But the comments section is rather entertaining:

*Tesla Will Get Trampled by the Mass Market | Bloomberg*


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

lolCat said:


> *sigh* $TSLA is goin nuts over the past few weeks, wonder why there are so many believers suddenly.
> My dreams of buying around $200 have been dashed


Yeah, you missed that boat. Sorry.

Red Sage is correct about the supercharger situation, but the rally in the last week is due to the reports of Tesla shutting down the factory next week to install production line updates to support the Model 3. This is the first real indication that investors have had that shows that Tesla might actually produce this vehicle on-time, instead of being two years late.


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## MichelT3 (Nov 16, 2016)

lolCat said:


> wonder why there are so many believers suddenly


Easy, because it becomes more and more clear to more and more people how big a success Tesla and its Model 3 will be.


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## lolCat (Feb 6, 2017)

Brian_North said:


> Well my budget for Model3 has gone up significantly recently lol. I did sell all my shares today. We're due for a price correction.


selling TSLA for short term gain, but I guess @ $270+ its "currently" overvalued.
I hope you intend to re-buy when it falls a little ?

Considering the potential of TSLA who knows what they will be worth in 10 Years.


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## KennethK (Oct 13, 2016)

Dave L posted this interview.


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

lolCat said:


> selling TSLA for short term gain, but I guess @ $270+ its "currently" overvalued.
> I hope you intend to re-buy when it falls a little ?
> 
> Considering the potential of TSLA who knows what they will be worth in 10 Years.


I don't think I'll be able to stay in for the super long haul but I've bought back in . I was uncomfortable with the 280~ ish price this early on. After the final reveal, sure I think we'll see some new record prices for TSLA. I sold at 282 and bought back in around 272. It fell even further that day but oh well. Position is stronger now then it was xD.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

The bears will definitely have to be sent back to hibernation after the next reveal and confirmation of timely launch! 
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...and-wall-street-have-never-been-further-apart


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

The bar is set high this week for fresh and reassuring news... Stay tuned! It's going to be a great second half of the week!
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-earnings-advance-20170216-story,amp.html


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## Badback (Apr 7, 2016)

A stock analyst is like a blind man with a crystal ball.


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Badback said:


> A stock analyst is like a blind man with a crystal ball.


Agree. I love the analysts with a target price of $100 a share. Hello, its at 280 a share.

Only analyst I've seen that did a ton of homework was Andrea James. There is a great interview with her posted somewhere around here. I'm used to most analysts claiming Tesla is shipping 500k Model3s in 2017 as they can't read the numbers 2018=500k 2017=?


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## Hoppie3 (Jul 12, 2016)

Sold today, I am hoping a lot of investors are turned off after Q4 report tomorrow. Buy back in at lower price.


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## Gary Moore (Apr 10, 2016)

While near 200 mph winds rip through the mountains of Northern California, I laugh uncontrollably at the abundance of idiocy I observe from comments regarding Tesla, Inc. in certain sectors. As I have noted previously, my having lived professionally inside the auto industry, I've seen production skyrocket at other facilities in the past within a few short months. Such miracles were not achieved because the management was overgrown with utter geniuses; it was because the technology for building cars had changed and the marketplace beckoned. (GM once tried three shift/around-the-clock production at Norwood, Ohio, and from that they largely confirmed that down time for plant maintenance is critical to keeping the lines running. No maintenance=no-go. Sadly, car dealers will never be offering to change your oil or spark plugs while you actively race down the expressways in pursuit of that Veyron surging ahead of you . How inconvenient a truth is that?)


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Randy Carlson demonstrates again that he is one of the very few tolerable writers for SeekingAlpha... Actually, this article seems well documented hence a much better read than you'd expect!
Tesla: Model 3 Update - What To Look For $TSLA
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4048049


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Brian_North said:


> (...) Only analyst I've seen that did a ton of homework was Andrea James. There is a great interview with her posted somewhere around here. (...)


See post #124 in this thread...


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Hoppie3 said:


> Sold today, I am hoping a lot of investors are turned off after Q4 report tomorrow. Buy back in at lower price.


Might get burned on that. I think there is enough Q4 details Tesla has given that it's already had its impact on the stock (last weeks 10~ correction that didn't last?). It really depends what happens on the analyst call. This is one of the more exciting Tesla days in the last while.

Edit: Now its falling. Shall be an interesting day tomorrow depending what happens!


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

The battle of the bears and the bulls will continue... yet we know we have reasons to believe and side with the latter!! 
http://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/9C8168B8-F9A7-11E6-A40C-9321348D62AF


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## Hoppie3 (Jul 12, 2016)

Limit bid for $230 placed.


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

Hoppie3 said:


> Limit bid for $230 placed.


I held on to my shares and picked up a few at 258 and also put in a limit order at $230.


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Well, today hurt!


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## Hoppie3 (Jul 12, 2016)

Brian_North said:


> Well, today hurt!


It's just one bad day! This stock is going to double many times in the next decade I believe.


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

Hoppie3 said:


> It's just one bad day! This stock is going to double many times in the next decade I believe.


I'm kicking myself as my position coulda been stronger if I got out before. I'm still up though!


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Hoppie3 said:


> It's just one bad day! This stock is going to double many times in the next decade I believe.





Brian_North said:


> I'm kicking myself as my position coulda been stronger if I got out before. I'm still up though!


Here's to the believers... hang in there! 
http://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/02/23/...arnings-but-analysts-see-new-highs-ahead.html


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## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

Hoppie3 said:


> Sold today, I am hoping a lot of investors are turned off after Q4 report tomorrow. Buy back in at lower price.


Good move if you sold higher than purchased given the drop after the rally over the last week or so.

Just goes to show the stock market is not rational on the mission. They're only looking at the short term bottom dollar.

I remain long


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Men of little faith... and vision!! 
Just one quick calculation: the premised 20% gross margin of an avg. price of $42k times 500k per year would mean $4.2 _billion_...
Even 15% times 400k equates to $2.5B... 
https://amp.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-could-be-a-mistake-2017-2


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

If you want a few good laughs, or to ruin your evening (depending on whether from the glass half full or half empty kind ), this one contains a few _real gems_ (ironically speaking of course)... A few examples:
1. "_But if production is significantly delayed, that could give entry-level EVs from rival automakers such as General Motors, Nissan and others a chance to pounce first_." Whoa.. A chance to pounce first?! When the Bolt & the (New) Leaf have reached cumulative registrations of 100k vehicles... that may _start to be _meaningful... 
2. "_Another potential lag on consumer adoption of entry-level EVs that could also impact Model 3 sales is the currently stable price of oil.". _As if that affected initial reservation numbers... 
and the _gold medal_, from the wise Goldman Sachs analyst himself:
3. "_While we do believe the company has at least one product cycle lead on its competitors,_" he wrote, "_there ultimately could be a Samsung to this Apple (think smartphones), with incremental competition on the horizon as we have detailed in past reports." _And who could that be? GM? BYD? 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/...a-stock-drops-model-3-delay-worries/98491164/


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

What if this focus on quality and simplicity makes T≡SLA prove all these naysayers with little faith (and evident contra-interests behind them...) WRONG as they launch Model ≡ on time and ramp up faster than they ever did before... _Go T≡SLA!_
https://www.fool.com/amp/investing/...is-ensuring-its-model-3-delivers-on-qual.aspx


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> If you want a few good laughs, or to ruin your evening (depending on whether from the glass half full or half empty kind ), this one contains a few _real gems_ (ironically speaking of course)... A few examples:
> 1. "_But if production is significantly delayed, that could give entry-level EVs from rival automakers such as General Motors, Nissan and others a chance to pounce first_." Whoa.. A chance to pounce first?! When the Bolt & the (New) Leaf have reached cumulative registrations of 100k vehicles... that may _start to be _meaningful...
> 2. "_Another potential lag on consumer adoption of entry-level EVs that could also impact Model 3 sales is the currently stable price of oil.". _As if that affected initial reservation numbers...
> and the _gold medal_, from the wise Goldman Sachs analyst himself:
> ...


I thoroughly enjoyed that post. Thought I would just pass that along.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Some are bears, some are bulls... and this one looks to be a promising veal... 
http://investorplace.com/2017/03/tesla-inc-tsla-stock-reversal-buying-opportunity/#.WLnA8GqkqaM


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

Badback said:


> A stock analyst is like a blind man with a crystal ball.


Perhaps a blind man playing basketball with a crystal ball?


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> If you want a few good laughs, or to ruin your evening (depending on whether from the glass half full or half empty kind ), this one contains a few _real gems_ (ironically speaking of course)... A few examples:
> 1. "_But if production is significantly delayed, that could give entry-level EVs from rival automakers such as General Motors, Nissan and others a chance to pounce first_." Whoa.. A chance to pounce first?! When the Bolt & the (New) Leaf have reached cumulative registrations of 100k vehicles... that may _start to be _meaningful...
> 2. "_Another potential lag on consumer adoption of entry-level EVs that could also impact Model 3 sales is the currently stable price of oil.". _As if that affected initial reservation numbers...
> and the _gold medal_, from the wise Goldman Sachs analyst himself:
> ...


Yeah. That's a great post. I'm not going to bother with the whole article. Thanks for bringing us the highlights of its ludicrosity.


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> Adding Trev's tweet into this collection, for those of you who missed it on Twitter!
> The video is >80' long, yet _super interesting _as Andrea James, who started to cover T≡SLA in 2010, explains how she changed from being sceptical after her first analysis report. Then, upon (initially easy) access to the company & further fact checking, she got increasingly convinced (& a converted!) that 'T≡SLA can do this!'
> The Aug. 2016 interview also provides some really good insights on what makes Wall Street tick and what this implies for analysts on expectations of them when it comes to advice on risk management!
> Enjoy!
> ...


Wow. Thanks a lot for including a link to this interview. Andrea James seems to be very smart. I may have seen her opposite Cory Johnson once, tearing him a new one... I watched the whole thing, and may have to watch it a couple more times with a notepad, so that I can take notes. She had some very interesting turns of phrase that really outlined her position very well at multiple points. Thanks, again!


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> What if this focus on quality and simplicity makes T≡SLA prove all these naysayers with little faith (and evident contra-interests behind them...) WRONG as they launch Model ≡ on time and ramp up faster than they ever did before... _Go T≡SLA!_
> https://www.fool.com/amp/investing/...is-ensuring-its-model-3-delivers-on-qual.aspx


I continue to believe that certain ANALysts actually want to see TSLA go down just so they can load up on it themselves ahead of the true explosion in price to the $320, $480, $640, and higher stratospheric points... Basically, they want to trick people into dumping the stock, covering their own $#0r+s, while also allowing them to _'ride the wave'_ when it goes back up.


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## Hoppie3 (Jul 12, 2016)

TrevP said:


> Good move if you sold higher than purchased given the drop after the rally over the last week or so.
> 
> Just goes to show the stock market is not rational on the mission. They're only looking at the short term bottom dollar.
> 
> I remain long


I believe in Tesla. I will continue to sell when the stock hits obvious peaks and buy on the dips. This will become much more difficult when they start making steady profits. But that is a long way away. 
If Elon isn't going to due a reveal until July, tell me what moves this sock higher from now until then.
The entire stock market has had a huge run in 2017. There will be a correction soon. Almost all stocks will go down in such a correction. That is when I will get back in.

Tesla does have a real chance to become the first Trillion dollar company in history. Let's all enjoy the ride!


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

Hoppie3 said:


> This will become much more difficult when they start making steady profits. But that is a long way away.


Heh. This reminds me of a conversation between God and Homer Simpson. God asks at one point, _"You can't wait six months?"_ And Homer answers, _"NO!"_


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

Hoppie3 said:


> I believe in Tesla. I will continue to sell when the stock hits obvious peaks and buy on the dips. This will become much more difficult when they start making steady profits. But that is a long way away.
> If Elon isn't going to due a reveal until July, tell me what moves this sock higher from now until then.
> The entire stock market has had a huge run in 2017. There will be a correction soon. Almost all stocks will go down in such a correction. That is when I will get back in.
> 
> Tesla does have a real chance to become the first Trillion dollar company in history. Let's all enjoy the ride!


We are definitely in a lull until the final reveal or until a new piece that he releases. I was hoping to trade a bit in the lull between the final reveal and production (As I'm sure a few people were going to do) but now I will just hold and accumulate more on further dips.

As far as profitability.... As Elon mentioned recently (I regards to the Union activity), when they become profitable they will make sure it's fun for employees. I believe he even said late this year, or was it next. (Someone will correct me I'm sure)


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## Hoppie3 (Jul 12, 2016)

Red Sage said:


> Heh. This reminds me of a conversation between God and Homer Simpson. God asks at one point, _"You can't wait six months?"_ And Homer answers, _"NO!"_


Maybe you should stop watching cartoons! lol


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## Rick59 (Jul 20, 2016)

Trev, any way you can add a stock price thingy on the page like they do at Electrek?


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

Hoppie3 said:


> Maybe you should stop watching cartoons! lol


Not likely. I made a promise to myself as a child to always enjoy them. Besides, I realized as I got older that cartoons are made by adults for adults!


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Not the worst one of these, looking at it from both perspectives... but... call me naively optimistic as I would be surprised to see TSLA go back down to $220 with our beloved Model ≡ likely to show its unpowdered nose within a couple of months... 

http://investorplace.com/2017/03/will-tesla-inc-tsla-stock-crash/#.WMBn1GqkqaM


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> Not the worst one of these, looking at it from both perspectives... but... call me naively optimistic as I would be surprised to see TSLA go back down to $220 with our beloved Model ≡ likely to show its unpowdered nose within a couple of months...
> 
> http://investorplace.com/2017/03/will-tesla-inc-tsla-stock-crash/#.WMBn1GqkqaM


Don't be surprised. There is a major lull happening right now until production.... _UNLESS _he makes another announcement of some kind. I think $220-230 is likely the bottom though.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Steve C said:


> (...) _UNLESS _he makes another announcement of some kind. (..)


So much can... and likely will... happen in the next 4-6 weeks... :rainbow:


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> So much can... and likely will... happen in the next 4-6 weeks... :rainbow:


Actually... I was just thinking.

When he did the reveal of the 'D' and Autopilot, the cars had been upgraded 2 weeks before that reveal. If he did in fact upgrade the line on the S/X during that work stoppage..... then perhaps a reveal imminently?

Throw me a bone already after delaying the reveal......


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

@Steve C , feels less lonely not to be the only optimist...


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> @Steve C , feels less lonely not to be the only optimist...


Hey! I resemble that remark!


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## KennethK (Oct 13, 2016)

Steve C said:


> Actually... I was just thinking.
> 
> When he did the reveal of the 'D' and Autopilot, the cars had been upgraded 2 weeks before that reveal. If he did in fact upgrade the line on the S/X during that work stoppage..... then perhaps a reveal imminently?
> 
> Throw me a bone already after delaying the reveal......


That is what Eric in this video was supposing... Especially with the Tesla app going offline today.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Fairly valued? Probably ok for now... yeah when Model ≡ start rolling out of Fremont @ rates of 5,000 a week, not to say more... where we will be...?
And, allow me an answer to this slightly hypothetical question:
_ '(...) with competitors on the horizon such as the Chinese company BYD, which, like Tesla, also makes batteries and cars, it remains to be seen how long Tesla can hold on to its advantage in that area.'_
...Well, as long as BYD designs don't drastically improve and as long as they don't have an extensive network of >150 kWh BYD superchargers, for starters... 
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/09/tesl...challenges-remain-says-bernstein-analyst.html


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> Fairly valued? Probably ok for now... yeah when Model ≡ start rolling out of Fremont @ rates of 5,000 a week, not to say more... where we will be...?
> And, allow me an answer to this slightly hypothetical question:
> _ '(...) with competitors on the horizon such as the Chinese company BYD, which, like Tesla, also makes batteries and cars, it remains to be seen how long Tesla can hold on to its advantage in that area.'_
> ...Well, as long as BYD designs don't drastically improve and as long as they don't have an extensive network of >150 kWh BYD superchargers, for starters...
> http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/09/tesl...challenges-remain-says-bernstein-analyst.html


Seriously. The BYD e6 supposedly has an 85 kWh battery pack capacity, bu achieved less than 190 miles range in EPA testing_ (187)_. They are offered in the U.S., but only through fleet services. At less than 71% of the Model S 85's 265 mile range, BYD would need a 100 kWh battery pack capacity just to reach a 222 mile range. I doubt BYD will miraculously become a major threat to Tesla within the next decade or more. The e6 makes the BOLT look good.


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## Badback (Apr 7, 2016)

I just want to confirm that the Tesla Bug is contagious. My OTHER (mostly human female partner) has just bought $7k of Tesla stock.


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

FINALLY! Someone finally put Cory Johnson in his place! About friggin' time. Geez.


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## $ Trillion Musk (Nov 5, 2016)

With a lot of negative media out there regarding Tesla, climate change, renewables, etc. there should be more than enough material to post here just for laughs or bewilderment. Feel free to post your best findings whether they be articles, videos or pictures.

I'll start with this one:
https://www.newsociety.com/blog/2017/Jeep-Versus-Tesla-Which-Car-is-Best-for-the-Future


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

The two sides of the same coin... or how to analyse the _identical_ annual reports from a glass _half empty_ or _half full _perspective... (for the former, also proving @TrevP 's recent point about Business Insider... starting with the title! )

So just publishing both to compare & contrast... 

1. http://uk.businessinsider.com/teslas-business-just-got-much-more-complicated-2017-3?r=US&IR=T

2. https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/03/22/9-key-metrics-from-tesla-incs-annual-report.aspx


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## BigBri (Jul 16, 2016)

I think the stock is in a pretty good place right now. @Steve C and I were talking and both nervous after the big price rush back in February and expected it to really dive after the quarterly results but its bounced back on mostly 0 news which is pretty amazing. Especially considering the attempts to cut the EPA harshly and rollback emissions regulations. Not that people buy Teslas for the environmental factor alone but historically the value of Tesla does get a boost when gas prices get high.

All in all I'm pretty happy to hold until the reveal/cars start going out to employees. The reaction to the quarterly report was bad enough for me to get out for a month. I've only got about 65% of my previous holdings back.. saving the last 35% to drop my avg share price if it does tank.


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## Gary Moore (Apr 10, 2016)

If it bleeds, it leads.

While I was a student at Kettering University (allegedly during the Stone Age) our personal finance instructor brought in a former student who had become a Wall Street trader. The trader then explained how Wall Street really worked, to put all that pretty charting of stocks stuff into perspective.

Two artists can take identical circular frames with matching circles of pins around them, and if given enough string the artists can form a rendering of the Mona LIsa or the secret portrait of Jack the Ripper, each done by wrapping around the matching sets of pins.

General Motors once got the optics wrong in the Hubble, and the space telescope needed an optician. The house call was rather expensive.

The trouble with advice is the wise don't need it and fools don't heed it. Close your eyes and think of England.

.


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

Gary Moore said:


> The trouble with advice is the wise don't need it and fools don't heed it.
> 
> .


Love that line. Ty @Gary Moore


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

stock up $6 since the start of ElonTwitterStorm20170324


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Has Elon Musk Setup Tesla For An 'Epic Fail' With His Model 3 Production Guidance (Hint: Yes)
Posting for completeness, because I came across it.
Highlights:

_"it just might be a stretch to assume the new car will out sale the BMW 3 Series and Mercedes C Class, combined, in it's first year of production."_
It seems pretty obvious that the demand is there for this to happen. Yet this analyst acts as though there won't be enough demand to reach this milestone.

_"Musk has a long history of never setting a deadline that he's likely to keep."_
True. But deadlines are only important to stock analysts. Businesses care about goals, even if they're later than predicted. And Tesla has managed to far outreach every goal it has set.... eventually.

_"...but it's totally fine because, as Bloomberg notes, Musk has plans to simply 'revolutionize' the automotive production process by simply skipping the beta testing phase."_
And as has been noted elsewhere, they're performing beta testing on release candidate cars, NOT skipping beta testing. They managed to install the production line at an early enough date that they could produce the cars for testing using actual production equipment, therefore Release Candidate cars. They're speeding up the processing, not skipping crucial testing.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

garsh said:


> Has Elon Musk Setup Tesla For An 'Epic Fail' With His Model 3 Production Guidance (Hint: Yes)
> Posting for completeness, because I came across it.
> Highlights:
> 
> ...


But saying tesla is on track and all things point to a very successful next few years isn't as exciting when trying to also push stock in BMW, Daimler, the big three, etc...


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

https://www.thestreet.com/story/140...amer-s-mad-money-recap-wednesday-3-29-17.html
Something positive on Tesla from an analyst? Crazy...


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

MelindaV said:


> But saying tesla is on track and all things point to a very successful next few years isn't as exciting when trying to also push stock in BMW, Daimler, the big three, etc...


Yes. The narrative posted by Naysayers for the past four or five years has remained:

Tesla is burning through too much cash for the number of cars they sell, this can't last forever, they are bound to go bankrupt any day now.
Tesla doesn't know what they are doing, they are only setting up a smokescreen, hoping an existing manufacturer will buy them out, saving Elon Musk from his folly.
Tesla is the only game in town right now, that inflates their apparent importance, the instant they face direct competition in the electric space from a real manufacturer, they are done.
Tesla is just a passing fad, there is a limited market for expensive electric cars.
Nobody actually wants a Tesla, what they really want is the prestige, status, and luxury of other brands, so when their electric cars come out in three, four, five years from now you'll see just how [FOULED] Tesla is!
And it just keeps going on and on from there. We know the evidence that counters each of those points. It is very frustrating that so many ANALysts are so biased against Tesla that they refuse to offer balanced coverage that addresses those supposed concerns.


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

MelindaV said:


> https://www.thestreet.com/story/140...amer-s-mad-money-recap-wednesday-3-29-17.html
> Something positive on Tesla from an analyst? Crazy...


So, it has taken over a year for Jim Cramer to recognize the 'resilience' of the market as a whole, and Tesla (TSLA) in particular? See... This is why I call him an ANALyst.

In early February 2016 TSLA went down precipitously , dropping to around $140 from about $220. Tesla Naysayers rejoiced that finally the bubble had burst, at last the market was seeing things in a reasonable fashion, and it seemed $#0r+s had prevailed. But then... They noticed the entire stock market had dropped that week. So whatever financial gains made from TSLA going down were more than cancelled out by everything else going down unexpectedly.

Plus, the so-called 'Tesla Cultists' responded by buying as much as they could at around $150 and drove the price back above $190 and then to around $205 within days. And well before the rest of the market had rebounded. That was when TSLA demonstrated its resilience -- not more recent runs above $250.


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## TrevP (Oct 20, 2015)

Red Sage said:


> Yes. The narrative posted by Naysayers for the past four or five years has remained:
> 
> Tesla is burning through too much cash for the number of cars they sell, this can't last forever, they are bound to go bankrupt any day now.
> Tesla doesn't know what they are doing, they are only setting up a smokescreen, hoping an existing manufacturer will buy them out, saving Elon Musk from his folly.
> ...


And how convenient they will forget they said those things when Tesla becomes a major player with even more models and the Model 3 sales in a couple of years really add up and the money starts rolling in.


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## Red Sage (Dec 4, 2016)

TrevP said:


> And how convenient they will forget they said those things when Tesla becomes a major player with even more models and the Model 3 sales in a couple of years really add up and the money starts rolling in.


Yup! That's why Jim Cramer decided to go on record to say Tesla will be successful in reaching their Production/Sales goals at the link @MelindaV provided above. He wants to be right for once.


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Nothing better than a bullish post - with an article from CNBC, no less!  - before going to sleep...
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/29/tesl...-high-and-heres-how-im-cashing-in-trader.html


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## Michael Russo (Oct 15, 2016)

Folks, we can say whatever we want about SA (and I totally stand behind it!) yet, occasionally, a gem can be found in the slime.. 
Here is a recent example, apart from the extremely bullish conclusion on projected TSLA value within 3-4 years ($1,000!), the writer develops a reasonably sensible argumentation, with even an attempt at a less favorable sensitivity (20% vs. 30% growth p.a.) at the end... 
Will Tesla Become A Trillion-Dollar Company? $TSLA
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4058984


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## Steve C (Sep 28, 2016)

Michael Russo said:


> Here is a recent example, apart from the extremely bullish conclusion on projected TSLA value within 3-4 years ($1,000!), the writer develops a reasonably sensible argumentation, with even an attempt at a less favorable sensitivity (20% vs. 30% growth p.a.) at the end...
> Will Tesla Become A Trillion-Dollar Company? $TSLA
> http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/4058984


I haven't read the article (Perhaps I should have before commenting) but, this is what I have been saying all along.

I believe the single biggest delay in Tesla right now across the board is Autopilot. Without it up to speed they will want to delay the release of the 3. IMHO. I cross my fingers everyday that Autopilot is in Beta mode that someone doesn't get hurt.


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## Guy Weathersby (Jun 22, 2016)

Steve C said:


> I believe the single biggest delay in Tesla right now across the board is Autopilot. Without it up to speed they will want to delay the release of the 3


Personally I wouldn't worry too much about the quality of Autopilot. My impression is that the 2.0 version is almost entirely machine learning based. The cumulative mileage of cars with 2.0 hardware is increasing rapidly and performance should increase with it. I, for one, am confident that by the time the Model 3 is delivered to non employees it will be much better than the 1.0 version.


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