# FSD: New Question (I Think)



## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

So like many, I am vacillating back and forth on purchasing FSD or not on delivery. I tend to look at it as an insurance policy against price increases for any additional software or possibly hardware that might be needed down the road to reach true Level 5 Autonomy.

But...what exactly are they promising if we purchase it now? Specifically, what does the contract actually say if you purchase it now with regard to future unseen needs to bring it to fruition? Is Tesla spelling out in writing that they will provide any and all upgrades, both software and hardware, required to bring the car to full self driving capability if and when it becomes available?

Of course FSD is a gamble at this point as nobody truly knows if it will happen or when. But it sure would be a lot easier gamble to take if we knew, for sure that our $3000 now meant that there would be absolutely no additional cost in the future. Any current owners that have purchased FSD care to share what your contract says about this? It would sure help me make my decision on what to do. Thanks.

Dan


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## Ken Voss (Feb 2, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> So like many, I am vacillating back and forth on purchasing FSD or not on delivery. I tend to look at it as an insurance policy against price increases for any additional software or possibly hardware that might be needed down the road to reach true Level 5 Autonomy.
> 
> But...what exactly are they promising if we purchase it now? Specifically, what does the contract actually say if you purchase it now with regard to future unseen needs to bring it to fruition? Is Tesla spelling out in writing that they will provide any and all upgrades, both software and hardware, required to bring the car to full self driving capability if and when it becomes available?
> 
> ...


Yes, I am struggling with the same decision. On one hand it is probably something I would add later when it becomes available so saving 25% by buying it now is a pretty big discount but that is only the case if two things happen
1-	There is assurance that it will actually work with current hardware or alternatively hardware will be upgraded an no cost to me. I now Elon has said as much in a tweet but he says a lot of things in Tweets that don't happen
2- It becomes available in the next 2-3 years, if the wait is much longer it is as not attractive to prepay in my opinion


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## Sub-hundred (Dec 31, 2017)

Your purchase agreement for FSD will be your binding agreement to the total price for this product/feature set, so whatever needs upgrading will be on Tesla. If it is never fulfilled, then you have consumer rights and can take meditating action (maybe more) if it's never delivered. Timing is not fixed, as it depends a lot on regulation and approval - so assume two years to roll out all elements required.

This isn't the latest version, but the agreement is very similar to this: https://3.tesla.com/assets/pdf/v4_model3_order_agreement_en_US_20170519.pdf

Additionally, full (level 5) autonomy is not what is described on the website, sounds like level 3. The driver can do tasks other than drive, if legal, but needs to be available to respond to the vehicles request to intervene. Here is the key section from https://www.tesla.com/autopilot?redirect=no describing the functionality:

"The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver's seat..." "Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself."


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## John (Apr 16, 2016)

Here's an alternative plan that I'm following.
It sounds like you have the $3000 and don't mind tying it up.
Buy $3000 of TSLA stock and wait until FSD is ready.
Just my opinion, but I think you'll have enough to buy FSD, whatever the price.
P.S. Don't take stock advice on a forum like this.
P.P.S. But do it.


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## arkysolar (Sep 12, 2017)

John said:


> Here's an alternative plan that I'm following.
> It sounds like you have the $3000 and don't mind tying it up.
> Buy $3000 of TSLA stock and wait until FSD is ready.
> Just my opinion, but I think you'll have enough to buy FSD, whatever the price.
> ...


Yes I'm doing the same thing.


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## Poobah (Oct 10, 2017)

For me there are two reasons I'm NOT getting FSD, one generic and one specific to where I live:
1) I don't truly believe (blasphemous words on this forum) that FSD will be fully autonomous anytime soon, even in Elon time. I'm a software engineer, so know a thing or two about complex SW problems. To truly have FSD, they have to solve ALL the corner cases (unusual scenarios) that a typical driver faces every day. These include (but are not limited to) low visibility, sun glare, poor lane markings, traffic lights/signs, pedestrians/bicyclists, and the biggest of all, idiot drivers. ALL of those have to be solved AND the ethical/political issues have to be resolved as well. Who is responsible (and pays) when FSD fails to avoid an accident? What does FSD do when "choosing" between the lives of others and potentially saving the life of the occupant of the car? This is a LONG road to FSD that we are on, and coughing up $3,000 to get very little or nothing for many years doesn't make much sense to me.
2) The state where I live (Maryland) offers a $3,000 tax credit for purchasing EVs, but only if the total purchase price of the car is under $60K. Adding FSD puts the purchase price over that $60K threshold, so adding FSD really costs me $6K. If I choose to add it later, it's "only" $4K.


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## 3V Pilot (Sep 15, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> I tend to look at it as an insurance policy against price increases for any additional software or possibly hardware that might be needed down the road to reach true Level 5 Autonomy.


I will be getting it for the reasons you mention and because it gets financed with the car. Tesla can say it's a $4K after-sale upgrade now but if the law requires 9 cameras, 13 ultrasonic sensors or any number of items the car doesn't have they will not be bound to honor that statement. All other auto makes will be lobbying VERY hard to make the regulations impossible for Tesla to follow. If that happens it would be a huge financial blow and leave Tesla in a very bad position. I'm hoping, betting (with my $3K), praying and dreaming of a day where that doesn't happen, Tesla turns on the system, and I can watch my car drive itself. I love the idea of pulling up to the front door of a business, getting out and letting the car go find a parking space!

Plus I do believe in Tesla and want to support the company, an extra $50 a month in a car payment isn't going to kill me. I fully realize the regulations and activation may not happen for sometime, however I have faith that Almighty Elon will always be pushing the edge of the envelope to turn this on ASAP! I truly believe that this one car is going to be a huge paradigm shift in the global auto industry unlike anything ever seen (with an exception for the Model T) and I want to be right up front, riding the wave!


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Poobah said:


> 2) The state where I live (Maryland) offers a $3,000 tax credit for purchasing EVs, but only if the total purchase price of the car is under $60K. Adding FSD puts the purchase price over that $60K threshold, so adding FSD really costs me $6K. If I choose to add it later, it's "only" $4K.


based on what you listed in your signature, your sale price WITH FSD would be $58,000 ($55k with just EAP), so this really would only come into play if you waited and opted for Dual, but all the 'first available' options add up to no more than $59,500. 
(total sale price should not include tax/licensing/etc, just the sticker price).


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

Sub-hundred said:


> Your purchase agreement for FSD will be your binding agreement to the total price for this product/feature set, so whatever needs upgrading will be on Tesla. If it is never fulfilled, then you have consumer rights and can take meditating action (maybe more) if it's never delivered. Timing is not fixed, as it depends a lot on regulation and approval - so assume two years to roll out all elements required.
> 
> This isn't the latest version, but the agreement is very similar to this: https://3.tesla.com/assets/pdf/v4_model3_order_agreement_en_US_20170519.pdf
> 
> ...


Ok, I have often been called an idiot so if I am just being true to form then I apologize, bit I don't see anything in that purchase agrement specific to FSD. It just all seems vague and uncertain to me.

Dan


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## 3V Pilot (Sep 15, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> Ok, I have often been called an idiot so if I am just being true to form then I apologize, bit I don't see anything in that purchase agrement specific to FSD. It just all seems vague and uncertain to me.
> 
> Dan


You are correct, there is not and never will be a "contract" in specific regards to the FSD option. It's one of those items you are either willing to buy on faith and hope Tesla makes good someday, or decide not to buy it and roll the dice that maybe they will offer it for $4k after the fact. Either way it's an uncertain proposition.


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## mdfraz (Oct 17, 2017)

Poobah said:


> For me there are two reasons I'm NOT getting FSD, one generic and one specific to where I live:
> 1) I don't truly believe (blasphemous words on this forum) that FSD will be fully autonomous anytime soon, even in Elon time. I'm a software engineer, so know a thing or two about complex SW problems. To truly have FSD, they have to solve ALL the corner cases (unusual scenarios) that a typical driver faces every day. These include (but are not limited to) low visibility, sun glare, poor lane markings, traffic lights/signs, pedestrians/bicyclists, and the biggest of all, idiot drivers. ALL of those have to be solved AND the ethical/political issues have to be resolved as well. Who is responsible (and pays) when FSD fails to avoid an accident? What does FSD do when "choosing" between the lives of others and potentially saving the life of the occupant of the car? This is a LONG road to FSD that we are on, and coughing up $3,000 to get very little or nothing for many years doesn't make much sense to me.


This is spot on. I'm not an expert on the current state of autonomous driving, but I've been a police officer, prosecutor and am still practicing law and try to stay up on some of the regulatory processes when it comes to self driving cars. Actually just went to a presentation by the Department of Revenue in Kansas a few weeks ago about prepping for that future. The number of things that must be taken into account simply from a regulatory perspective (let alone software, testing, insurance/liability concerns by the manufacturer, etc.) is way more than a lot of people might even dream of, including quite a few noted above. While the Kansas state government is at least working on this issue, the reality of level 5 is measured in years, if not decades, here. I would imagine California and a few other states are probably further ahead, and other states could poach some of their ideas to speed the process, level 5 IMO is a pretty long ways off.


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

Mike Land said:


> You are correct, there is not and never will be a "contract" in specific regards to the FSD option. It's one of those items you are either willing to buy on faith and hope Tesla makes good someday, or decide not to buy it and roll the dice that maybe they will offer it for $4k after the fact. Either way it's an uncertain proposition.


That was my thought. Thanks for the confirmation and clarification for those of us that are letigiosly challenged!

Dan


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## Sub-hundred (Dec 31, 2017)

A purchase agreement has a line item for FSD, so if never fulfilled you have consumer protection / meditation options to get that back. I'm sure if Tesla say it can't be done, they'll proactively do the right thing.

@mdfraz, hopefully there is some federal legislation to come and save the states resources? Within the next 3 years would be nice, but not holding my breath at the current leadership's ability to conceive and follow through with good ideas...


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## mdfraz (Oct 17, 2017)

Sub-hundred said:


> A purchase agreement has a line item for FSD, so if never fulfilled you have consumer protection / meditation options to get that back. I'm sure if Tesla say it can't be done, they'll proactively do the right thing.
> 
> @mdfraz, hopefully there is some federal legislation to come and save the states resources? Within the next 3 years would be nice, but not holding my breath at the current leadership's ability to conceive and follow through with good ideas...


Obviously there is an interplay between federal and state laws when it comes to highways and rules of the road, but states still have a LOT of control over speed limits and other aspects of driving. Not only that, what also needs to be considered and hashed out is liability issues. Tort law is a little different in every state as well, and one big issue when it comes to FSD is that the most culpable (only culpable???) party when a car drives itself is who built the car and/or the software.

I do not want at all to be political here, but I will say I don't want the federal government telling every single state how to handle their traffic rules and tort/insurance issues. I don't have a clue how or when it will all shake out, but I can't see FSD as something that will become useful for many years down the road.


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## Poobah (Oct 10, 2017)

MelindaV said:


> based on what you listed in your signature, your sale price WITH FSD would be $58,000 ($55k with just EAP), so this really would only come into play if you waited and opted for Dual, but all the 'first available' options add up to no more than $59,500.
> (total sale price should not include tax/licensing/etc, just the sticker price).


The MD tax credit form says "total purchase price not exceeding $60,000" not purchase price before taxes or MSRP. Therefore, I interpret that as including all fees. If I go with FSD and interpret it wrong, I'm out $3K. If I don't get FSD, I fall under $60K even with all taxes and fees, so there is no interpretation needed and I qualify for the credit.


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Poobah said:


> The MD tax credit form says "total purchase price not exceeding $60,000" not purchase price before taxes or MSRP. Therefore, I interpret that as including all fees. If I go with FSD and interpret it wrong, I'm out $3K. If I don't get FSD, I fall under $60K even with all taxes and fees, so there is no interpretation needed and I qualify for the credit.


the same question was on Tesla's forum with a responder there having an answer from MD state on how the credit is calculated. So not only is tax not included (because it is essentially a credit on your sales tax), but if you are trading in a car, its value is also not included in the "sale price" (but please check in to confirm for yourself.) 
"The MD excise tax is essentially the MD sales tax (6%). I asked the MVA for the definition of total sales price and this is what they said.
"A vehicle purchased from a licensed dealer is assessed excise tax based on
the total purchase price. Total purchase price means the price of a vehicle
agreed on by the buyer and the seller, including any dealer processing
charge, less an allowance for trade-in. Manufacturer rebates are taxable,
however dealer rebates and discounts are not. All rebate, trade-in, or
discount information must be clearly marked on the bill of sale."
So, for a new Model 3, I think the total purchase price would be the total price of the car plus options plus the delivery and destination charge LESS the value of your trade-in should you be trading in a vehicle.
So, if you are buying a First Production Model 3 with all options then I believe you would exceed the $60K limit factoring in a $1200 destination/delivery charge. If you are trading in a vehicle then you would be fine.
Note that since this an excise tax credit, you get reimbursed immediately. You fill out the form and they mail you a check. This is not something that you have to wait until tax time to take advantage of like the Federal Tax credit.
As someone pointed out earlier in this thread, funds for this program are very limited ($1.2M per year) so it's best to submit your form as soon as possible after purchase."​


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## Poobah (Oct 10, 2017)

MelindaV said:


> the same question was on Tesla's forum with a responder there having an answer from MD state on how the credit is calculated. So not only is tax not included (because it is essentially a credit on your sales tax), but if you are trading in a car, its value is also not included in the "sale price" (but please check in to confirm for yourself.)
> "The MD excise tax is essentially the MD sales tax (6%). I asked the MVA for the definition of total sales price and this is what they said.
> "A vehicle purchased from a licensed dealer is assessed excise tax based on
> the total purchase price. Total purchase price means the price of a vehicle
> ...


Thank you for the clarification ... this may alter my thinking, but I doubt it. I still have problems spending $$ on something that is likely to take a long time to get (full FSD capabilities)

Of course, this is the same person who put down $1K sight unseen and have waited 1 year nine months and counting to get a Model 3! I guess I'm willing to wait for SOME things!!


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## teslaliving (Apr 2, 2016)

A LOT of people purchased FSD on Model S/X more than a year ago and they've had nothing to show for it. That's a long time to provide a free loan to Tesla. Its a software upgrade, pay for it when/if it becomes available. Current AP shows they're not close to FSD level.


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## Ken Voss (Feb 2, 2017)

teslaliving said:


> A LOT of people purchased FSD on Model S/X more than a year ago and they've had nothing to show for it. That's a long time to provide a free loan to Tesla. Its a software upgrade, pay for it when/if it becomes available. Current AP shows they're not close to FSD level.


Not questioning if pre-ordering FSD in advance or when it becomes available is the best thing for each individual but I do want to point out that pre-ordering is absolutely NOT a "Free Loan to Tesla" Ordering it say in March 2018 for $3,000 and getting it say 2 years later in March 2020 with a value of $4,000 is like making 16.5% APR interest on your $3,000 "LOAN". There are clearly some big unknowns but if it were to be available in roughly 2 years and if you were planning to buy FSD anyway this would be considered a very good ROI.


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## ng0 (Apr 11, 2017)

Ken Voss said:


> Not questioning if pre-ordering FSD in advance or when it becomes available is the best thing for each individual but I do want to point out that pre-ordering is absolutely NOT a "Free Loan to Tesla" Ordering it say in March 2018 for $3,000 and getting it say 2 years later in March 2020 with a value of $4,000 is like making 16.5% APR interest on your $3,000 "LOAN". There are clearly some big unknowns but if it were to be available in roughly 2 years and if you were planning to buy FSD anyway this would be considered a very good ROI.


I agree, but you never know how long it will take to finish implementation and more importantly regulations to get pushed through the political process. It could be 5-6 years for all we know (I hope not!). There's definitely a risk factor either way. Depending on what returns you get on your investments, that may be a better bet.

Personally I'm not even considering FSD right now unless there's some kind of huge announcement from Tesla with firm dates before I configure. I feel like 3K will be more painful now than 2-3 years from now especially after the huge expense of this car. Also, I'm not sure if anyone's mentioned it, but no one has clarified if FSD will be taxed if you add it later. If not then that could be over $300 of cost savings on the $4k.


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## teslaliving (Apr 2, 2016)

Ken Voss said:


> Not questioning if pre-ordering FSD in advance or when it becomes available is the best thing for each individual but I do want to point out that pre-ordering is absolutely NOT a "Free Loan to Tesla" Ordering it say in March 2018 for $3,000 and getting it say 2 years later in March 2020 with a value of $4,000 is like making 16.5% APR interest on your $3,000 "LOAN". There are clearly some big unknowns but if it were to be available in roughly 2 years and if you were planning to buy FSD anyway this would be considered a very good ROI.


Definitely a good point and how I originally looked at it. Then with the constant slips and no timeline, I'm beginning to think its paying for something you'll never see in the normal lifespan of ownership (3-5 years for many). If you plan on keeping the car 10 years its different math for sure. But they also keep changing the hardware requirements for AP so it's unclear if, when they finally have something working, it will work on the car you prepaid for it to work on years ago.


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## voip-ninja (Sep 25, 2017)

I don't think that FSD is going to be possible in the current generation cars, even level 3 is potentially out of reach. I'm not the only one who thinks this apparently, as the chief architect working on FSD at Tesla, among other engineers, has quit the company over promises Elon is making vs. what they can do with the technology.

Tesla is doing this $3K FSD down payment in good faith but I imagine that they will start refunding people's deposits if it gets to the point that it would be past the point most people would keep owning the cars before it arrives.

There's also very little chance, in my opinion, that Tesla will opt to do costly hardware upgrades to existing vehicles to achieve FSD rather than just refund people's deposits once they realize they can't deliver. Knowing Elon he will make lemonade out of the lemons and offer them front of the queue on the fancy new Model 3+ that has the new FSD solution in 5 years time.

I'm not an automotive engineer and don't know a lot about the work Tesla is doing on FSD, but every other automaker is using LIDAR to get there and I don't see how it is possible for Tesla to do this with an image based solution... since it is pretty hobbled in bad weather, anytime the cameras get dirty, etc.


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## Guy Weathersby (Jun 22, 2016)

voip-ninja said:


> I don't think that FSD is going to be possible in the current generation cars, even level 3 is potentially out of reach. I'm not the only one who thinks this apparently, as the chief architect working on FSD at Tesla, among other engineers, has quit the company over promises Elon is making vs. what they can do with the technology.
> 
> Tesla is doing this $3K FSD down payment in good faith but I imagine that they will start refunding people's deposits if it gets to the point that it would be past the point most people would keep owning the cars before it arrives.
> 
> ...


Actually the only technology which has been proven to work under all weather and road conditions is vision based. People drive in all conditions primarily using vision. Given adequate data and intelligence there is every reason to believe that an AI can drive as well as a human in all conditions.

The Model 3 has much better secondary sensors and no limits on attention, so it is reasonable to conclude that it should be able to drive much better than a person.

Much is unknown, is the computer adequate, is the 5 billion KM, enough data, are current algorithms good enough, how long will it take to come together? Nobody really knows, since nobody has given a driving AI that much data.

We will start to find out in around a year. Personally, I am betting on Tesla.


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## voip-ninja (Sep 25, 2017)

Guy Weathersby said:


> Actually the only technology which has been proven to work under all weather and road conditions is vision based. People drive in all conditions primarily using vision. Given adequate data and intelligence there is every reason to believe that an AI can drive as well as a human in all conditions.
> 
> The Model 3 has much better secondary sensors and no limits on attention, so it is reasonable to conclude that it should be able to drive much better than a person.
> 
> ...


That's the claim I often see made about why Tesla opted for an optical approach. However, the human brain is still quite a bit more powerful than even the best self-driving systems offered by AMD and others.

I could see the AP being fairly capable of handling things in good weather conditions. Roads that are covered in wet grime that is going to cake the sensors, not so much.

As you say, time will tell. I'm not betting on or against Tesla, but in my own industry we saw similar things happen with claims around what could be done with Text To Speech and full voice recognition, things that executives insisted were going to be delivered fully actualized in the late 1990's that still have not fully materialized.


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## Poobah (Oct 10, 2017)

voip-ninja said:


> That's the claim I often see made about why Tesla opted for an optical approach. However, the human brain is still quite a bit more powerful than even the best self-driving systems offered by AMD and others.
> 
> I could see the AP being fairly capable of handling things in good weather conditions. Roads that are covered in wet grime that is going to cake the sensors, not so much.
> 
> As you say, time will tell. I'm not betting on or against Tesla, but in my own industry we saw similar things happen with claims around what could be done with Text To Speech and full voice recognition, things that executives insisted were going to be delivered fully actualized in the late 1990's that still have not fully materialized.


Agreed. Actually, I don't think we'll see ANY truly autonomous cars until they can talk to each other, "talk" to road signs/traffic signals, etc. There are simply too many variables to account for in a daily drive for any set of sensors to handle. Even if the sensors can "see" all of its surroundings, it has to interpret all of those inputs, factor in the consequences, and make instantaneous decisions. Autopilot is fine for keeping me in a lane at the proper speed on well marked roads, but asking a car to do much more than that will take a long time.

An example, you are traveling down a road and a ball rolls across your path. The ball itself poses no threat, but the inevitable child chasing after it could be killed. As humans, we've been taught to slow down and proceed with extreme caution. An FSD car first must detect the object, then detect it as a ball (and not a small animal), and then be coded in such a manner as to slow down even though it and it's occupant are in no danger. This is only ONE case they have to account for. There are countless thousands of other scenarios that will also need to be resolved ... and I haven't even touched on the ethical/political/legal issues!!


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

voip-ninja said:


> That's the claim I often see made about why Tesla opted for an optical approach. However, the human brain is still quite a bit more powerful than even the best self-driving systems offered by AMD and others.


Yes, but even a bird-brain can interpret stereo optical images well enough to avoid running into cars (usually). 

The computer/neural net will be specialized for this purpose, and as we've seen, machine learning can work much better than human intuition for very narrowly-focused objectives.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Poobah said:


> Actually, I don't think we'll see ANY truly autonomous cars until they can talk to each other, "talk" to road signs/traffic signals, etc.


I disagree with this. It's too expensive to expect upgrades to infrastructure everywhere, and any car that relies on it will be useless where that type of infrastructure isn't available.

The best way to reduce the computational burden on the car is to start off with very good maps of the area. The car then doesn't have to interpret every sign & intersection - it's quicker to confirm that the expected things still exist (much like you do when driving a familiar route). Then the on-board neural net spends most of its time recognizing and interpreting the "variables" - other cars, bouncing balls, new construction, accidents, etc.


> An example, you are traveling down a road and a ball rolls across your path. The ball itself poses no threat, but the inevitable child chasing after it could be killed.


That's easier to handle than you might think. Machine learning is pretty good at classifying images already. It sees a ball, it's classified as a "ball", or more generally "toy". You make sure that when a "toy" is encountered crossing a road, you slow down because it's more likely that a child might be running after the "toy".

Remember when a Google self-driving car correctly handled encountering a woman in a wheelchair chasing a duck with a broom? Dealing with that kind of weird stuff isn't too hard - basically, don't hit things. Not saying that any of this is easy, but it's probably easier than, say, dealing with snow.


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## voip-ninja (Sep 25, 2017)

garsh said:


> Yes, but even a bird-brain can interpret stereo optical images well enough to avoid running into cars (usually).
> 
> The computer/neural net will be specialized for this purpose, and as we've seen, machine learning can work much better than human intuition for very narrowly-focused objectives.


I still don't understand how the cameras are going to work when they are dirty. In a lot of places cars are dirty quite often due to winter driving conditions.

It's kind of surprising to me that there aren't heated washer jets for the AP cameras so that the car can "blink" when its eyes get crusty.


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## Ken Voss (Feb 2, 2017)

voip-ninja said:


> I still don't understand how the cameras are going to work when they are dirty. In a lot of places cars are dirty quite often due to winter driving conditions.
> 
> It's kind of surprising to me that there aren't heated washer jets for the AP cameras so that the car can "blink" when its eyes get crusty.


Being in the "internet of things" business for the past 8 years, I can say that no single sensing mode will do the job, while cameras may indeed be the primary sensing technology, there must redundancy as well as secondary modes of sensing. This needs to be done not only for fault tolerance but to achieve the necessary level of accuracy. Infrastructure outside of the car is a non-starter. Each vehicle must be fully self contained with redundancy. An earlier post mentioned looking at aircraft, this is correct in so far as every mission critical function on aircraft has redundancy, any single point of failure can be tolerated without impacting functionality. The difference is aircraft actually require a lower standard of accuracy than a car. In aircraft 2 feet of distance is not relevant nor is 2 seconds of time. in a car 2 feet of distance and 2 seconds of time can be the difference between life and death


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## voip-ninja (Sep 25, 2017)

Ken Voss said:


> Being in the "internet of things" business for the past 8 years, I can say that no single sensing mode will do the job, while cameras may indeed be the primary sensing technology, there must redundancy as well as secondary modes of sensing. This needs to be done not only for fault tolerance but to achieve the necessary level of accuracy. Infrastructure outside of the car is a non-starter. Each vehicle must be fully self contained with redundancy. An earlier post mentioned looking at aircraft, this is correct in so far as every mission critical function on aircraft has redundancy, any single point of failure can be tolerated without impacting functionality. The difference is aircraft actually require a lower standard of accuracy than a car. In aircraft 2 feet of distance is not relevant nor is 2 seconds of time. in a car 2 feet of distance and 2 seconds of time can be the difference between life and death


Then it sounds like you agree that the hardware Tesla is currently shipping is not going to be up to the task.


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## Ken Voss (Feb 2, 2017)

voip-ninja said:


> Then it sounds like you agree that the hardware Tesla is currently shipping is not going to be up to the task.


I would not bet on it, I feel it is more likely that the current hardware will not be sufficient than that it will do the job. On the other hand didn't Elon say if someone paid for FSD that they would upgrade the hardware at no charge? If that is true, it makes me consider pre-ordering.

So the scenario could look like something this 1- pay $3,000 for software now and in a few years when it is fully baked take it in to get a free hardware upgrade. 2- Don't pre-order and in a few years pay $4,000 for software and find out that you also need to purchase a hardware upgrade for an unknown sum of money


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## voip-ninja (Sep 25, 2017)

Ken Voss said:


> I would not bet on it, I feel it is more likely that the current hardware will not be sufficient than that it will do the job. On the other hand didn't Elon say if someone paid for FSD that they would upgrade the hardware at no charge? If that is true, it makes me consider pre-ordering.
> 
> So the scenario could look like something this 1- pay $3,000 for software now and in a few years when it is fully baked take it in to get a free hardware upgrade. 2- Don't pre-order and in a few years pay $4,000 for software and find out that you also need to purchase a hardware upgrade for an unknown sum of money


The problem I have is that Tesla are free to change their minds at any time. What Elon says is not binding. If it's going to cost $7500 to upgrade a car they are more likely to just give you your $3K back and maybe offer you a discount and inflated trade in value if you want to get a car that already has the upgraded hardware.


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

voip-ninja said:


> I still don't understand how the cameras are going to work when they are dirty.


If they're too dirty, then FSD & autopilot won't be available. Hopefully, the car can tell you which cameras you need to clean.


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

voip-ninja said:


> The problem I have is that Tesla are free to change their minds at any time. What Elon says is not binding. If it's going to cost $7500 to upgrade a car they are more likely to just give you your $3K back and maybe offer you a discount and inflated trade in value if you want to get a car that already has the upgraded hardware.


"What Elon says is not binding" huh?

I wish somene would tell that to all these folks stressing out about these ramp up dates!

Dan


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

voip-ninja said:


> I still don't understand how the cameras are going to work when they are dirty. In a lot of places cars are dirty quite often due to winter driving conditions.
> 
> It's kind of surprising to me that there aren't heated washer jets for the AP cameras so that the car can "blink" when its eyes get crusty.


Pilots are required to do a preflght inspection and walk around of their aircraft before every flight. Perhaps drivers need to take 60 seconds to do the same and make sure those sensors and cameras are clear?

Dan


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## mdfraz (Oct 17, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> Pilots are required to do a preflght inspection and walk around of their aircraft before every flight. Perhaps drivers need to take 60 seconds to do the same and make sure those sensors and cameras are clear?
> 
> Dan


Sure, maybe that works for the beginning of the trip, but if you are driving in sloppy snow and ice, which is common in many parts of the country, that gunk will build up on the cameras/car as you drive. Unless you get out every few minutes and wipe them clean again, the problem will likely remain.


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## SoFlaModel3 (Apr 15, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> Pilots are required to do a preflght inspection and walk around of their aircraft before every flight. Perhaps drivers need to take 60 seconds to do the same and make sure those sensors and cameras are clear?
> 
> Dan


That won't work if you summon the car and there isn't anyone to do that pre-check.


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## Dan Detweiler (Apr 8, 2016)

SoFlaModel3 said:


> That won't work if you summon the car and there isn't anyone to do that pre-check.


Perhaps that will be the case in some situations. There will be limitations to any system, LIDAR or no LIDAR. If that is the case then FSD will simply not be available or will transfer control to the driver. I, for one, think that Tesla is not stupid and by the time it is ready, will have the means to ensure that the system is available and fully functioning at all times...whatever that might be. I guess I am more of a glass half full kind of guy. Bottom line is that there will be needs to ensure that ANY system is fully functioning before it engages.

Dan (eternal optimist I guess)


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## SoFlaModel3 (Apr 15, 2017)

Dan Detweiler said:


> Perhaps that will be the case in some situations. There will be limitations to any system, LIDAR or no LIDAR. If that is the case then FSD will simply not be available or will transfer control to the driver. I, for one, think that Tesla is not stupid and by the time it is ready, will have the means to ensure that the system is available and fully functioning at all times...whatever that might be. I guess I am more of a glass half full kind of guy. Bottom line is that there will be needs to ensure that ANY system is fully functioning before it engages.
> 
> Dan (eternal optimist I guess)


Sorry, yes I agree with you which is why I said the precheck can't be a requirement. The car has to have thought of a way to take care of itself for this whole thing to work!


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## Guest (Jan 8, 2018)

*I'm confident that Level 4 is reachable, but not level 5.* Applies to AP 2.1 hardware.
There are two main reasons I'm *absolutely *sure AP2.1 will never get Level 5 badge (aka full self driving).
*AP2.1 is not able to clean 5 (out of 8) cameras. This is a requirement for level 5. The end.*
In addition to cameras, AP2.5 is not able to clean/deice all 13 sensors (includes radar).
AP2.1 can not see safely forward to overtake a truck. Similar problem with right hand drive traffic with left hand drive car (steering wheel on the right). Forward looking camera is in the wrong position (human is in better position, therefore car is worse than human).

It can be fixed, but it is not AP2.1 any more. I'm sorry, but this is not debatable. It has been proven again and again.
Especially in Norway (snow/slush). Almost all AP functionality can be compromised way too easily.

V2V and V2I are definitely not needed for Level 5 autonomy. These just make things run smoother.


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## Poobah (Oct 10, 2017)

arnis said:


> It can be fixed, but it is not AP2.1 any more. I'm sorry, but this is not debatable. It has been proven again and again.
> Especially in Norway (snow/slush). Almost all AP functionality can be compromised way too easily.


You may be right ... but that won't stop members of this forum from debating!


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## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

mdfraz said:


> Obviously there is an interplay between federal and state laws when it comes to highways and rules of the road, but states still have a LOT of control over speed limits and other aspects of driving. Not only that, what also needs to be considered and hashed out is liability issues. Tort law is a little different in every state as well, and one big issue when it comes to FSD is that the most culpable (only culpable???) party when a car drives itself is who built the car and/or the software.
> 
> I do not want at all to be political here, but I will say I don't want the federal government telling every single state how to handle their traffic rules and tort/insurance issues. I don't have a clue how or when it will all shake out, but I can't see FSD as something that will become useful for many years down the road.


That train has nearly left the station: https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2017/09/19/464721.htm. From Sept. 19, 2017:

"As the U.S. Congress moves quickly to pass the first federal law governing self-driving cars, some state and city officials are pushing back over fears that the measure will limit their ability to regulate vehicle safety at the local level."


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## Rich M (Jul 28, 2017)

I think the only way around FSD with no one on board (long distance summon) is to give the car the ability to transfer control to a real human in a "call center" if the car encounters an unusual situation, supplying live video and video of X seconds up to the exception event (this could be a great application for VR). This means only being able to use that feature within LTE coverage. Essentially, level 4 with a big asterisk.
I'm fairly certain autonomous cars can already safely avoid crashes, it's what the car does after it encounters an exception that makes all the difference. 

If there's debris in my lane, which happens a lot in farm country, I'm sure the autonomous car can stop, but as a human I will either drive into the oncoming lane when safe, or slightly onto the grass to get around it and continue. Will the autonomous car know to do that, or will it stay stopped and obstruct all traffic behind it?
There needs to be a way to identify when an ambulance or police car is coming up behind it in traffic and get out of the way, but also needs to know when to get back into the lane and resume, etc.


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## ng0 (Apr 11, 2017)

Rich M said:


> If there's debris in my lane, which happens a lot in farm country, I'm sure the autonomous car can stop, but as a human I will either drive into the oncoming lane when safe, or slightly onto the grass to get around it and continue. Will the autonomous car know to do that, or will it stay stopped and obstruct all traffic behind it?
> There needs to be a way to identify when an ambulance or police car is coming up behind it in traffic and get out of the way, but also needs to know when to get back into the lane and resume, etc.


I think the idea is that FSD possibly level 4 but probably level 5 would be "intelligent" enough to understand these situations and actually act on them. For both situations you listed, the car would assess the situation and the appropriate course of action and actually execute the decision like a human would. It would use artificial intelligence for decision making. These are definitely not easy problems, but there are technologies that are almost advanced enough for this. One of the big dilemmas in self driving is giving a machine the ability to make life or death decisions. If the car has absolutely no way to avoid a potentially deadly situation, what does it decide to do and who's fault is it if the system makes the wrong decision?


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## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

voip-ninja said:


> I still don't understand how the cameras are going to work when they are dirty. In a lot of places cars are dirty quite often due to winter driving conditions.
> 
> It's kind of surprising to me that there aren't heated washer jets for the AP cameras so that the car can "blink" when its eyes get crusty.


and that's the difference between Level 4 and Level 5. FSD is expected to be L4, and it permits by definition to have limitations (IE can not operate until a human cleans cameras too dirty to operate).


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## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Rich M said:


> If there's debris in my lane, which happens a lot in farm country, I'm sure the autonomous car can stop, but as a human I will either drive into the oncoming lane when safe, or slightly onto the grass to get around it and continue. Will the autonomous car know to do that, or will it stay stopped and obstruct all traffic behind it?
> There needs to be a way to identify when an ambulance or police car is coming up behind it in traffic and get out of the way, but also needs to know when to get back into the lane and resume, etc.


I know Waymo has been handling those situations acceptably for years. I've seen a demonstration of their car crossing a double-yellow line in order to go around a truck parked halfway-off the road.


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## Guest (Jan 8, 2018)

In EU, it is legal to overtake a "SLOW VEHICLE" or vehicle that moves slowly (30km/h or less) even when passing is not allowed (aka double yellow in US).


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## CaptnOMatic (Mar 20, 2018)

MelindaV said:


> the same question was on Tesla's forum with a responder there having an answer from MD state on how the credit is calculated. So not only is tax not included (because it is essentially a credit on your sales tax), but if you are trading in a car, its value is also not included in the "sale price" (but please check in to confirm for yourself.)
> "The MD excise tax is essentially the MD sales tax (6%). I asked the MVA for the definition of total sales price and this is what they said.
> "A vehicle purchased from a licensed dealer is assessed excise tax based on
> the total purchase price. Total purchase price means the price of a vehicle
> ...


Yep, the only problem with the tax credit that I can see is that it affects how much you finance, because it is not applied at the point of sale to the final price. You have to wait until a check is mailed to you. Not a big issue, but if you are financing you end up paying interest on that amount over the life of the loan. Would have been a much better process for Maryland to allow it at the point of sale and not have to issue a check.

I also just called the Tesla location to ask how the form is filled out since it has a section for the "Dealership" to fill out, which includes a dealership number. Unfortunately, the Tesla sales person told me to consult a tax professional, which is Odd because a tax professional is not going to be able to answer questions on how to fill out the dealership information. It's a word of caution for those trying to fill out these forms. I'll let you know what happens to me in the next 4 to 6 weeks. Although i'm a bit concerned with the lack of knowledge from the Tesla sales reps, in my experience this always leads to mistakes and problems.


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## NickJonesS71 (May 11, 2020)

CaptnOMatic said:


> Yep, the only problem with the tax credit that I can see is that it affects how much you finance


What I did here was front load my down payment with what I expected back for my refund. My plan was to put down 20k...by front load I mean that I put down $27,500 cash and then just reimbursed my account with the 7500 at tax time. For the state credit it was processed at time of sale.

If your state sends you a check instead I'd suggest doing what I explained above if feasible


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