# Disappointed about FSD each time Elon Tweets



## SoFlaModel3

Is anyone like me, getting more and more disappointed (or perhaps discouraged) each time Elon Tweets about Full Self Drive. To clarify, yes I realize FSD is a suite and some of it is delivered so we are really talking about NoAP City Roads. The long overdue feature has been in limited public beta for quite some time. In my opinion there have been a series of missteps...


raising the price by $2,000 when it reached beta. Why raise the price when everyday customers can't get the new functionality
setting no actual/realistic timeline expectations -- some customers are going on 4 years having paid for FSD with no deliverable in sight
not valuing FSD on trade in (you have to sell private to get value out of FSD) / at the same time telling customers FSD will appreciate the value of their vehicle 
allowing some of the public beta testers to share on social. This now more or less rubs it in the face of everyone who spent the money and has seen nothing for it. 
removing EAP as an option. Right now, AP is included and I would wager a guess that the vast majority want AP (Autosteer) + Lane Change. No one in their right mind would pay $10,000 for Lane Change though but you seemingly have no choice since you're forced to deal without having it or jump up to FSD.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1364480679019429888
So I guess NoAP City Roads will arrive in 2022? I still love Tesla, but enough is enough already.


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## iChris93

If the "more time needed needed to write & validate software" is only on the order of one week, then this isn't particularly discouraging as it should help improve things. 

In general, I agree. The longer this goes, the more I think Elon is making things up and it won't ever come to my vehicle. If I were going to buy a Tesla today, I would find a used one with FSD where the price has depreciated the cost of FSD so I wouldn't feel like I was paying for it.


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## JCE

I will say as a Tesla Owner and Tesla fan-the pricing of FSD is getting out of hand at $10k. While I did order it for my Y-I bought it for $6k when I ordered the car, it seems to be driving up the price of the car without much benefit other than a cool party trick.


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## M3OC Rules

SoFlaModel3 said:


> Is anyone like me, getting more and more disappointed (or perhaps discouraged) each time Elon Tweets about Full Self Drive. To clarify, yes I realize FSD is a suite and some of it is delivered so we are really talking about NoAP City Roads. The long overdue feature has been in limited public beta for quite some time. In my opinion there have been a series of missteps...
> 
> 
> raising the price by $2,000 when it reached beta. Why raise the price when everyday customers can't get the new functionality
> setting no actual/realistic timeline expectations -- some customers are going on 4 years having paid for FSD with no deliverable in sight
> not valuing FSD on trade in (you have to sell private to get value out of FSD) / at the same time telling customers FSD will appreciate the value of their vehicle
> allowing some of the public beta testers to share on social. This now more or less rubs it in the face of everyone who spent the money and has seen nothing for it.
> removing EAP as an option. Right now, AP is included and I would wager a guess that the vast majority want AP (Autosteer) + Lane Change. No one in their right mind would pay $10,000 for Lane Change though but you seemingly have no choice since you're forced to deal without having it or jump up to FSD.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1364480679019429888
> So I guess NoAP City Roads will arrive in 2022? I still love Tesla, but enough is enough already.


Of course I want it yesterday but I'm not surprised we are where we are. This pricing structure is the thing I hate the worst about Tesla ever since they got rid of EAP. I can't recommend FSD for $10k and really wish EAP was an option. But from Tesla's perspective everything is going fine. Lots of people buy the FSD option and they are making progress towards making it happen. I think people need to stop buying it until its priced appropriately or they bring back EAP. If people are justifying it because they are pre-buying level 5 autonomy they need to realize that is very, very risky. There is literally no way to predict if or when this will be done.

I think Elon justifies this because he does think its right around the corner and when it comes everyone will be happy. But that optimism doesn't fix your valid points. Where we are today was predictable and they used lots of psychological sales techniques to get people to buy into this. They deserve criticism. I think Tesla's problem with adding FSD on to EAP was that it was obvious you were getting nothing from FSD. Plus they can count revenue as they add features that weren't part of EAP which is also very questionable in my mind.

I think releasing it to Youtubers is genius. It gives you hope its coming soon and you'll be happy for a minute once you get it even though its not close to being done. I've watched so many videos I think I could do a reverse Turing test and fool someone into thinking I was rocking Beta 8.1.


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## iChris93

M3OC Rules said:


> Lots of people buy the FSD option


Do we know this?


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## Needsdecaf

I'm sorry to say this, but I'm glad that even the die-hard people are getting weary. Hopefully this becomes a loud voice and forces Tesla to do SOMETHING. A partial refund, an ability to transfer to new Teslas, etc. This is legitimately hindering sales....I know people have said "I want to upgrade my older 3 to a Y but I purchased FSD, haven't seen the value, and don't want to pay for it again". 

Personally I really am disappointed in Elon for this. I'm not sure how much this schtick is propping up the stock price or not. I'm sure the people who are pro-Tesla say not in any way and the shorts say that it's all about Elon's scheme. The answer is somewhere in the middle, but I'm sure it IS having an effect. But I really wish that he would just shut up about it, and let it stay under the radar. Why? Because I think the cars have tremendous value on their own without FSD, for many reasons. And I also think that his claims about appreciating cars, the value of robo-taxis, etc. are overblown at the very least. 

So honestly, while it's commendable that Telsa is pursuing this goal, I really wish it wouldn't be at the forefront of everyone's mind.


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## NOGA$4ME

Agreed. I'm reiterating here, but I'm not really surprised at the fact that FSD is not available yet. But Elon's credibility with respect to FSD is really in the crapper, and he just continues to double down and say things like "maybe next week". I have an article from CHARGED magazine from 2016 quoting Elon's promise of a "fully autonomous drive from Los Angeles to New York by the end of 2017." The goal posts on that have changed so many times and in so many ways. Just be honest about what is achievable and stop pretending that actual full self-driving is just around the corner.

Meanwhile, fix some of the ridiculous behavior I see on the highway with respect to always wanting to pull into the left lane when passing an exit and being able to handle merging on-ramps that don't have any marking (car swerves to the right and then back again to "center" itself in what seems like a very wide lane). Those two bugs alone make NoA practically unusable. And I would be just fine with NoA at this point.


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## M3OC Rules

iChris93 said:


> Do we know this?


The last data point I know of was before the increase to $10k and was about 27%. Maybe it's gone down? It would be interesting to see how much the FSD Beta increased it and the price increase decreased it.



M3OC Rules said:


> Great find. That is very interesting. So it was disclosed to private investors that the take rate was 27% towards the end of 2019 and 50% revenue recognizable in the Q1 2020 earning call. That is a higher take rate than I would have guessed and 50% is reasonable if you consider EAP as 50% and FSD(old definition) as 50%. I think the biggest improvement with FSD Beta when it comes out is going to be in advanced summon which could be argued to increase the recognized revenue. It will be interesting to see how much they recognize with FSD beta. Also I'm not sure I agree with the video that the take rate will increase despite the 25% price increase but maybe the videos are compelling enough.
> 
> This makes me feel better about Tesla's actions as long as customers are happy with the value they are getting. Will people see FSD beta as a useful feature before its approved by regulators and they have to monitor it? What are the expectations of the people buying it?


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## Malaromane

SoFlaModel3 said:


> [snip]
> removing EAP as an option. Right now, AP is included and I would wager a guess that the vast majority want AP (Autosteer) + Lane Change. No one in their right mind would pay $10,000 for Lane Change though but you seemingly have no choice since you're forced to deal without having it or jump up to FSD.


That describes my situation perfectly. For my day-to-day driving patterns, I couldn't justify the CDN$10,600 upgrade price for FSD but would almost certainly leap at the chance to purchase EAP so that I could have Lane Change and NoAP (highway) for those few instances when I go on a highway drive.

I'm kicking myself for missing the chance to grab EAP when it briefly made a reappearance back in the summer of 2020 but I had just purchased my car at that point and I spent a little too long making up my mind about the added expenditure.


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## DocScott

...and while we're discussing ways to break up FSD, I might consider paying $3k to get HW 3.0. That would still be a leap of faith on my part, because right now it's not clear that HW3 improves AP at all. But I do suspect that at some point down the line HW 3.0 will make AP better. I also expect that at some point while I still own my current M3 that Tesla will stop improving AP for HW 2.5.

Any a la cartes option for HW 3.0 that is priced higher than Tesla's cost for the hardware and the labor for installation is a win for Tesla. There aren't any more HW 2.5 cars being made, so they don't have to worry about cannibalizing FSD sales--if the HW 2.5 owners wanted to pay for FSD, they'd have done so by now. But they'll shake loose a bit more revenue from people like me.


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## NR4P

SoFlaModel3 said:


> *Is anyone like me, getting more and more disappointed (or perhaps discouraged) each time Elon Tweets *about Full Self Drive. To clarify, yes I realize FSD is a suite and some of it is delivered so we are really talking about NoAP City Roads. The long overdue feature has been in limited public beta for quite some time. In my opinion there have been a series of missteps...
> 
> 
> raising the price by $2,000 when it reached beta. Why raise the price when everyday customers can't get the new functionality
> setting no actual/realistic timeline expectations -- some customers are going on 4 years having paid for FSD with no deliverable in sight
> not valuing FSD on trade in (you have to sell private to get value out of FSD) / at the same time telling customers FSD will appreciate the value of their vehicle
> allowing some of the public beta testers to share on social. This now more or less rubs it in the face of everyone who spent the money and has seen nothing for it.
> removing EAP as an option. Right now, AP is included and I would wager a guess that the vast majority want AP (Autosteer) + Lane Change. No one in their right mind would pay $10,000 for Lane Change though but you seemingly have no choice since you're forced to deal without having it or jump up to FSD.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1364480679019429888
> So I guess NoAP City Roads will arrive in 2022? I still love Tesla, but enough is enough already.


The very first sentence sums up my thoughts and frustration about Elon (FSD aside). His frequent tweets about economics and investments such as Bitcoin, DOGE, GAME etc is troubling. Yes he has a large following but FOCUS ON TESLA and FSD.

I am a lucky one for a change. I got the FSD bargain at $2K, so as everyone else waits (but a few lucky club Presidents), I didn't spend $5K, $7K, $8K or $10K. But with my vehicle over 2.5 years old, out of warranty soon, and the Mrs. wants a Tesla, this FSD promise promise promise, is very old. I would consider another Tesla if FSD was transferable. My next car will be the one that takes over the road trips. The one I have will then become the second car. But no, not going to buy another vehicle until some real attention is paid to us, the people that bet on him with real $.

(And don't get me started with a rant on the S and X Jan. 27 surprise, oh you ordered a car? Pony up $8K to $16K more or you don't get it, that's another subject for another thread).


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## JasonF

I get the distinct feeling that there is a huge battle going on in the Tesla boardroom. We're getting a lot of polarized messages that swing from one extreme to the other week to week. It looks to me like the battle is over whether to keep Tesla firmly planted in the ultra-luxury market, or whether to keep pushing toward mainstream auto producer, and the board members on each side are taking the opportunity at times to assert their own beliefs on the subject through company policy. I bet the employees are _really_ confused, because the customers certainly are.

And I think as other manufacturers start to introduce their own EV models, the battle on Tesla's board will intensify, and eventually they're going to have to decide where they want to be. It's an outcome that I kind of dread, because I'm getting the impression that as much as I like Tesla's cars, they may very well be out of reach the next time I'm looking to buy, depending on which way the board decision goes.


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## Bigriver

SoFlaModel3 said:


> Some customers are going on 4 years having paid for FSD with no deliverable in sight


I would count it as 5 years. I believe it was 2016 when they first started passing the collection plate for FSD.


SoFlaModel3 said:


> allowing some of the public beta testers to share on social media


Totally sure they did it for free publicity. I wasn't that bothered when it was to be a relatively short time before a wider release, but is getting a bit stale now.


SoFlaModel3 said:


> Right now, AP is included and I would wager a guess that the vast majority want AP (Autosteer) + Lane Change. No one in their right mind would pay $10,000 for Lane Change though but you seemingly have no choice since you're forced to deal without having it or jump up to FSD.


Yes, auto lane change is all I care about beyond what is included for free as part of current auto pilot. I might not be in my right mind, but if I were replacing my traveling car I really consider lane-change an essential and I would cough up the $10k. Yes it is steep, but it is only $1k more than I paid for EAP (5k) + FSD (4K) on my 2017 car. 


NOGA$4ME said:


> Meanwhile, fix some of the ridiculous behavior I see on the highway with respect to always wanting to pull into the left lane when passing an exit


Yes. I want this 100 times more than any new FSD feature.


M3OC Rules said:


> was about 27%. Maybe it's gone down?


I read somewhere lately that the take rate is under 10%. Take rate in China is particularly low, only a few percent. I totally understand why.... any of you been on roads in China? The lanes are only vague suggestions no one pays attention to. Highway with 4 lanes with 6 side-by-side cars carving out their own path. No idea how any form of autopilot could handle that.


Needsdecaf said:


> A partial refund, an ability to transfer to new Teslas, etc. This is legitimately hindering sales....


Yes. This. Transferability to a new/different car. That is absolutely what is needed. I think it is unconscionable that people who have had a Tesla totaled, replaced it with another Tesla, have been told they have to repurchase the option when it is still yet a promise unfulfilled.


JasonF said:


> It looks to me like the battle is over whether to keep Tesla firmly planted in the ultra-luxury market, or whether to keep pushing toward mainstream auto producer,


I really don't see that at all. Tesla has continuously improved their cars while making them cheaper and cheaper. Yes, they just updated the S/X with pricier options, but these prices are still generally below where they were 3-4 years ago. They use S/X's as showcase cars and the profits from them to keep expanding on their mission to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. When they revealed the model 3 in 2016, it seemed too wonderful to believe there could be a $35k Tesla with a range over 200 miles. Today, almost 5 years later, you can order a model 3 for $36,990 (which is roughly $33.5k in 2016 dollars) with a range of 263 miles with great interior features that were originally expected to be premium upgrades (e.g., glass roof).


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## Madmolecule

> SoFlaModel3 said:
> Some customers are going on 4 years having paid for FSD with no deliverable in sight


I would count it as 5 years. I believe it was 2016 when they first started passing the collection plate for FSD.

not only has it not been released but it has not been defined in all this time. It would be nice to know a few basic answers. When do they expect it to be released to the people that have purchased it? What will it be able to do? What will it not be able to do? It is crazy having a debate when we don't even know what we're debating on. When we get the version will it continue to have nags on FSD. What is the distance of advance summon. The purpose of the nags is to keep you from getting too relaxed while driving. I purchased FSD so I could be more relaxed while driving. Will you required be required to be in the vehicle? what is the timeline for Robo taxi? Is this something we should ever expect in our lifetime or in the caris lifetime? What would be the expected Mission success rate when you type in an address? What features will be provided in our version and what features will be provided in FSDN. It would be great to see your pole of FSD listed by different features and see which ones people think we've actually purchased? I have always been caught up in the Elon excitement but as the richest man on the planet he needs to show some love to the early adopters that invested in his dream and not just in his stock. All of us believed in the company and the stock we were just the fools that put the money in the vehicles instead of the stock? I am still under FUD fantasy uncertainty and doubt.

Elon needs to at least show some effort that he cares about the early adopters. So far it's been all talk. In 2018 he would've told me if you spend an extra $8000 one day we will upgrade your computer and you will be able to change lanes on the interstate and see traffic cones I doubt I would've purchased it. If Elon is not going to fight for us I can guarantee you the Board of Directors will not. They are too focused on stock performance and company bottom line. I hate to say we've been forgotten but we've been forgotten
I do feel FSD was a major part of teslas success in the early days. Elon realized they could not compete with efficient ice cars like the Honda accord and a Toyota Camry on pay back from gas savings. At the time there were tremendous unknowns with electric vehicles such as a battery degradation, fire hazard, realistic range charging etc. FSD and the advanced software was needed to convince people that they were worth more then just another form of transportation. This is why every Tesla comes with the computers and the cameras to provide data acquisition for FSD. This will also be the secret sauce that continues teslas success as the other manufactures start building electric vehicles. An electric motor is very proven technology and I imagine all manufacturers will have good success. Battery technology has also caught up I still think there will be some quantum leaps but I think that other manufacturers will not be able to build an electric vehicle I think his old school thinking. So I don't believe this is a cute feature that we purchased and hope one day would provide some level of enjoyment. This is an integral part of the fantasy

The only reason they've let some Youtubers post it is the keep the deniers from saying that it doesn't exist at all Which I could see people saying based on the product we currently have in our vehicle. When it can't do the basic things it's hard to imagine will be doing cartwheels by March

I don't care that they allegedly upgraded my computer and lost money on it. First of all they have not provided any info to make me believe that second of all if the new computer is 1000 times faster why did they sell me a computer in my car that missed the mark by 1000 times. I was not informed that the computer that came with my car what is handicapped? When I got my upgrade I was feeling bad for the people that did not purchase FSD and would be stuck with a 2.5 computer. I thought it would be very difficult to resell a Tesla with a 2.5 computer. Currently I see no issue in that which also shows there's not much value in the newer computer or an FSD in resale currently.

would the model 3 be a better vehicle if they focused the technology on active traction and suspension control, auto cruise control, accident avoidance, advanced navigation (obstruction warning etc) and infotainment and leave the driving up to us for awhile Until technology and regulators are ready. I bought the speed upgrade but why they haven't offered a traction control upgrade to me is crazy?

$100 non refundable cyber truck investment is for what again? What advantages is it supposed to give me?

since they're not into crazy things like release dates, I'll keep checking the app and hope Santa Claus comes

Elon Electrify Cuba!!


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## JasonF

Bigriver said:


> I really don't see that at all. Tesla has continuously improved their cars while making them cheaper and cheaper. Yes, they just updated the S/X with pricier options, but these prices are still generally below where they were 3-4 years ago. They use S/X's as showcase cars and the profits from them to keep expanding on their mission to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. When they revealed the model 3 in 2016, it seemed too wonderful to believe there could be a $35k Tesla with a range over 200 miles. Today, almost 5 years later, you can order a model 3 for $36,990 (which is roughly $33.5k in 2016 dollars) with a range of 263 miles with great interior features that were originally expected to be premium upgrades (e.g., glass roof).


It's a very recent battle, possibly - in my opinion - caused by Elon Musk being distracted by SpaceX and Bitcoin. He hasn't been paying as close attention to what the Tesla execs have been doing, and I suspect that's led to some confusion about their mission and infighting. And I think what's making that worse is Elon is sometimes agreeing with one side, and sometimes with the other, piecemeal, rather than setting a specific direction.

A good example of that is talking about a new $25,000 model in one breath, then increasing the price of the still unfinished FSD to $10,000 (with a possible threat of it going up to $12,000+ soon) - in cash. Those two goals don't match with one another - making an EV available that more people can afford, but then making it so one of their signature features is unaffordable for 99% of those who buy it. It sends a mixed message about what the goals of the company are.


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## Needsdecaf

Here's a novel theory....stop increasing the freaking price until it does what it says on the tin. 

All this price increase based on the ludicrous assertion that it will "increase the value of the car" makes it look like a snake oil scam. Just leave it as is until the feature set is complete. Then jack it to whatever you want. The market will speak.


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## evannole

DocScott said:


> and while we're discussing ways to break up FSD, I might consider paying $3k to get HW 3.0. That would still be a leap of faith on my part, because right now it's not clear that HW3 improves AP at all. But I do suspect that at some point down the line HW 3.0 will make AP better. I also expect that at some point while I still own my current M3 that Tesla will stop improving AP for HW 2.5.


This is exactly why I bought FSD a year and a half ago, at $3k. I really don't care about FSD in the city, but want the best possible (E)AP experience on the interstate, and suspect that eventually HW3 will outdo HW2.5 in that department, and/or development will cease for 2.5.


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## JasonF

Needsdecaf said:


> Here's a novel theory....stop increasing the freaking price until it does what it says on the tin.
> 
> All this price increase based on the ludicrous assertion that it will "increase the value of the car" makes it look like a snake oil scam. Just leave it as is until the feature set is complete. Then jack it to whatever you want. The market will speak.


I strongly suspect that aside from the testing stage, in the end, FSD is not meant for consumers to buy. It's primarily so Tesla can manage a fleet of self-driving taxis, and _secondarily_ so cash buyers can buy their own fleet (whether it's a fleet of one or more of them) of self-driving taxis to manage. What Tesla is selling you now (and since its announcement) is the chance to own your own self-driving fleet before it becomes restricted. I believe that because if Tesla does plan on managing a self-driving fleet, why would they want every single Tesla buyer potentially competing directly with them?

Instead, I think the future of FSD will be that you can sign paperwork to allow Tesla to use your car for a self-driving taxi service, and get paid a percentage of fares in return, plus allowances for cleaning and repair if needed.


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## M3OC Rules

JasonF said:


> I strongly suspect that aside from the testing stage, in the end, FSD is not meant for consumers to buy. It's primarily so Tesla can manage a fleet of self-driving taxis, and _secondarily_ so cash buyers can buy their own fleet (whether it's a fleet of one or more of them) of self-driving taxis to manage. What Tesla is selling you now (and since its announcement) is the chance to own your own self-driving fleet before it becomes restricted. I believe that because if Tesla does plan on managing a self-driving fleet, why would they want every single Tesla buyer potentially competing directly with them?
> 
> Instead, I think the future of FSD will be that you can sign paperwork to allow Tesla to use your car for a self-driving taxi service, and get paid a percentage of fares in return, plus allowances for cleaning and repair if needed.


They have already made many statements on this. Everyone has already signed saying they will not run their own taxi service. You will have to add your car to the Tesla Network if you want to allow it to be used as a Robo-taxi. So Tesla gets a cut no matter what. At least until the antitrust lawsuits. 

I do agree Elon believes they are pre-selling FSD at a discount right now. They have even said they might not sell cars at consumer prices once FSD is solved and that they are appreciating assets. This line of thinking is totally fine if you can accurately predict when it's going to be done. The problem is not only can you not predict that, you can't even guarantee it will ever happen.


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## TomT

If I were doing it again today, I would not buy FSD at today's prices and functionality.


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## JasonF

M3OC Rules said:


> I do agree Elon believes they are pre-selling FSD at a discount right now. They have even said they might not sell cars at consumer prices once FSD is solved and that they are appreciating assets. This line of thinking is totally fine if you can accurately predict when it's going to be done. The problem is not only can you not predict that, you can't even guarantee it will ever happen.


Part of that also depends on whether you believe the General Motors' CEO assertion that the era of personal car ownership is coming to an end, and that the future is in people subscribing to self-driving taxi services (and the associated GM plan to switch over to building cars for a taxi service instead of cars for customers).

I believe people want to own their own cars. Whether the manufacturers eventually make that impossible is another matter. In the current form of ride-sharing, however, it would amount to a drastic cost increase for simply getting around. I calculated once how much it would cost to have Uber take me to work and back every day - it turned out to be about $200 a week, which is way more than even buying a Performance Model 3 with no down payment! And it comes with the downside of making it more difficult to simply run out for a quick errand, because you would have to order your ride and wait for it to arrive first. Obviously if you live in a large city and have to pay astronomical rates for parking, or live someplace where walking is just as easy, that view drastically changes.


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## Needsdecaf

JasonF said:


> I strongly suspect that aside from the testing stage, in the end, FSD is not meant for consumers to buy. It's primarily so Tesla can manage a fleet of self-driving taxis, and _secondarily_ so cash buyers can buy their own fleet (whether it's a fleet of one or more of them) of self-driving taxis to manage. What Tesla is selling you now (and since its announcement) is the chance to own your own self-driving fleet before it becomes restricted. I believe that because if Tesla does plan on managing a self-driving fleet, why would they want every single Tesla buyer potentially competing directly with them?
> 
> Instead, I think the future of FSD will be that you can sign paperwork to allow Tesla to use your car for a self-driving taxi service, and get paid a percentage of fares in return, plus allowances for cleaning and repair if needed.


This is not how Elon markets it. He specifically says "buy this to increase the value of your car". Which is BS


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## DocScott

JasonF said:


> Part of that also depends on whether you believe the General Motors' CEO assertion that the era of personal car ownership is coming to an end, and that the future is in people subscribing to self-driving taxi services (and the associated GM plan to switch over to building cars for a taxi service instead of cars for customers).
> 
> I believe people want to own their own cars. Whether the manufacturers eventually make that impossible is another matter. In the current form of ride-sharing, however, it would amount to a drastic cost increase for simply getting around. I calculated once how much it would cost to have Uber take me to work and back every day - it turned out to be about $200 a week, which is way more than even buying a Performance Model 3 with no down payment! And it comes with the downside of making it more difficult to simply run out for a quick errand, because you would have to order your ride and wait for it to arrive first. Obviously if you live in a large city and have to pay astronomical rates for parking, or live someplace where walking is just as easy, that view drastically changes.


I think an analogy is cloud-based software. I've been hearing for decades that people will stop having software locally on their devices, and just always use it via the cloud. The technology is there, and it's not an uncommon practice on the business side. Multiplayer online games also generally work that way.

But most people still have apps stored locally on their devices. There's a number of reasons for that: you want to be able to use the software when you're not connected to the cloud, you don't want to be involuntarily upgraded all the time, you'd rather own than subscribe, privacy concerns, etc..

Likewise, I suspect car ownership is not going away, even if robotaxis provide a viable alternative. Some advantages, or perceived advantages to ownership:

Access: In some areas a robotaxi may work fine 95% of the time. But the system won't be designed to handle unusual surges (doing so would add too much expense). In, say, an evacuation do to an incoming hurricane robotaxis may suddenly become very difficulty to summon.

Cost: In the long run, personal ownership is likely to be cheaper, and people may not like paying and paying and paying if they can own.

Customizability and Familiarity: People may want to customize their cars, even if that just means having their favorite kind of car caddy or trunk organizer. They may like always having the _same_ car.

Privacy: Whether or not it's true, people will perceive car ownership as having fewer privacy concerns than hailing a robotaxi.


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## JasonF

DocScott said:


> I think an analogy is cloud-based software. I've been hearing for decades that people will stop having software locally on their devices, and just always use it via the cloud. The technology is there, and it's not an uncommon practice on the business side. Multiplayer online games also generally work that way.
> 
> But most people still have apps stored locally on their devices. There's a number of reasons for that: you want to be able to use the software when you're not connected to the cloud, you don't want to be involuntarily upgraded all the time, you'd rather own than subscribe, privacy concerns, etc..


I believe the same, that people are willing to spend a little bit more for more personal storage because the "cloud" is slow, expensive, and unreliable by comparison.

But to relate it closer to the comparison of the future of personal cars...what if the computer/tablet manufacturers decide unanimously that local storage is not going to be something they want to do anymore, so they increase the price of it dramatically, making it unaffordable? Then they've just forced adoption of the cloud, even with its inconveniences - with the exception of the wealthy, who have the extra money and are still willing to pay for the local storage.

That's the concern I mentioned above. That car manufacturers will simply eliminate the lower end models until the only purchasable cars are financially out of reach for most people, and then force them to subscribe to self driving taxi networks for transportation. Even with the inconvenience, there would be no choice. The question I can't answer is whether they would make more or less money this way.

It certainly would shift the economy dramatically. Basically everything that's valuable during Covid lockdowns would permanently become valuable - home deliveries, work-from-home jobs, etc - and in person shopping and dining would virtually disappear, simply because it would become so inconvenient to wait for a car to come around. People might consider it more desirable to move to dense cities and small towns where they can just walk most of the time, so the costs of those places would go way up.


----------



## Park2670

I am on 2.5, and paid $3,000 plus tax for basic autopilot. There is no way you are getting ANOTHER $10k out of me for lane change, and summon. 

My thought is on the side of they should lower the price and get more people to purchase it. The can make the same amount of money at $5k if the amount of people buying it doubled or tripled. At current costs, I see less and less people buying it each passing day.


----------



## nonStopSwagger

Park2670 said:


> I am on 2.5, and paid $3,000 plus tax for basic autopilot. There is no way you are getting ANOTHER $10k out of me for lane change, and summon.
> 
> My thought is on the side of they should lower the price and get more people to purchase it. The can make the same amount of money at $5k if the amount of people buying it doubled or tripled. At current costs, I see less and less people buying it each passing day.


The only part of FSD I use that is actually useful beyond basic autopilot is auto lane change. I find that everything else is half baked at best, something to show off to non tesla drivers, but generally never to be used by owners.

My hope is that once FSD is actually achieved, they will offer paid unlocks piecemeal for some of the options already working today. Specifically auto lane change, when you use the turn signal.

Incidentally, my hunch is that FSD, when it's released, will be somewhat of a party trick. Most drivers won't used it that often after the first few drives, they will find it too stressful vs just driving themselves. You'll understand what I mean if you have already used todays NoA in fast moving dense traffic. It makes lots of really dumb decisions, at inopportune times.


----------



## slacker775

I use FSD on the highway all the time. I use it 90-95% on drives between Tampa and Miami. I don’t have it doing auto-lane changes, I let it do the lane changes when I signal for it, but other than that, it’s pretty great. Not sure why others would be so fearful of it.


----------



## nonStopSwagger

slacker775 said:


> I use FSD on the highway all the time. I use it 90-95% on drives between Tampa and Miami. I don't have it doing auto-lane changes, I let it do the lane changes when I signal for it, but other than that, it's pretty great. Not sure why others would be so fearful of it.


Sorry, let me clarify my comment. NOA with automatic unconfirmed (no chime either) lane changes. On normal setting. In heavy traffic that is moving at or over the speed limit.

That's probably as close as we can get today to simulating the stress of babying FSD, vs the simplicity of just driving yourself.


----------



## FRC

slacker775 said:


> I use FSD on the highway all the time. I use it 90-95% on drives between Tampa and Miami. I don't have it doing auto-lane changes, I let it do the lane changes when I signal for it, but other than that, it's pretty great. Not sure why others would be so fearful of it.


I think you are referring to NOA with lane change only when confirmed. This is exactly how I currently use my "FSD", but it's a far cry from true FSD. Apparently, like me, you don't even like to let the car make it's own lane changes without prior approval.


----------



## slacker775

FRC said:


> I think you are referring to NOA with lane change only when confirmed. This is exactly how I currently use my "FSD", but it's a far cry from true FSD. Apparently, like me, you don't even like to let the car make it's own lane changes without prior approval.


Yea, Florida drivers are a bit crazy and lane changes were waaay to cautious back in the old days so I'm very used to just signaling when ready to change and let the car do it. I should probably let it try again but it's really not that big of a deal to me. I just don't like to be 'that guy' on the road signaling forever while the lane is open but not making the move.


----------



## styleruk

My opinion is slightly different on this. I kinda ignore anything on social media, I read it, but I ignore most of it, even if it is from Elon himself, it is wrong I suppose that he keeps promising things and updating on this media, but it's exciting at the same time. I tend to look at the Tesla web site and read that.
360° cameras; check
160m forward radar; check
summon; check (although it's pretty useless in the UK)
autopark; check
auto lane change; check (although not that great in UK)

then this, and I quote;

*Full Self-Driving Hardware*
_Every new Model 3 comes standard with advanced hardware capable of providing Autopilot features today, and full self-driving capabilities in the future-through software updates designed to improve functionality over time._

This has stayed the same since I ordered the car in April 19'. I guess there are 2 types of customers, new ones and existing ones. The new ones have to read the web site before they buy to be sure as to what they get. They can of course read social media and get excited that in the next month or so it will do more. Then there are the people like me who have been listening for a very long time how it's going to be FSD in the next month.....er...nope. Web site still says 'in the future'. The future is a very long time!
So that's where I sit with this, it's exciting, but when he bangs on about what's happening next on twitter, I ignore it and check the web site. That'll be the first place that will update it's wording when it's actually happening because that's the first point of sale.....meanwhile, keep adding games. 

NB
To be fair to Tesla, I've had this car coming on 2 years now and never before has a car I've owned been so nice regarding it's fancy features. Love the updates and I don't really care that the nutter at the helm keeps promising stuff, I'm not stupid, but then he's doing something right isn't he?


----------



## Needsdecaf

nonStopSwagger said:


> The only part of FSD I use that is actually useful beyond basic autopilot is auto lane change. I find that everything else is half baked at best, something to show off to non tesla drivers, but generally never to be used by owners.
> 
> My hope is that once FSD is actually achieved, they will offer paid unlocks piecemeal for some of the options already working today. Specifically auto lane change, when you use the turn signal.
> 
> Incidentally, my hunch is that FSD, when it's released, will be somewhat of a party trick. Most drivers won't used it that often after the first few drives, they will find it too stressful vs just driving themselves. You'll understand what I mean if you have already used todays NoA in fast moving dense traffic. It makes lots of really dumb decisions, at inopportune times.


Yup. This is why when offered EAP to buy for $4k I passed. $4k simply to not have to change lanes myself and use dumb summon? Rather buy some coilovers.

Also, there is a huge gap, I mean a yawning chasm between one of these features "working" (i.e. it can do what you ask without crashing) and working well enough so that it doesn't cause me stress. The sole purpose of these aids is to make driving LESS STRESSFUL. If I have to stress over when the car's going to make a lane change, is it going to cut off the bro-dozer who will likely then shoot me, well then even if it "works" it doesn't actually get it's job done.


----------



## M3OC Rules

JasonF said:


> I believe the same, that people are willing to spend a little bit more for more personal storage because the "cloud" is slow, expensive, and unreliable by comparison.
> 
> But to relate it closer to the comparison of the future of personal cars...what if the computer/tablet manufacturers decide unanimously that local storage is not going to be something they want to do anymore, so they increase the price of it dramatically, making it unaffordable? Then they've just forced adoption of the cloud, even with its inconveniences - with the exception of the wealthy, who have the extra money and are still willing to pay for the local storage.
> 
> That's the concern I mentioned above. That car manufacturers will simply eliminate the lower end models until the only purchasable cars are financially out of reach for most people, and then force them to subscribe to self driving taxi networks for transportation. Even with the inconvenience, there would be no choice. The question I can't answer is whether they would make more or less money this way.
> 
> It certainly would shift the economy dramatically. Basically everything that's valuable during Covid lockdowns would permanently become valuable - home deliveries, work-from-home jobs, etc - and in person shopping and dining would virtually disappear, simply because it would become so inconvenient to wait for a car to come around. People might consider it more desirable to move to dense cities and small towns where they can just walk most of the time, so the costs of those places would go way up.


Its not going to happen all at once and take a long time. I would expect much less drama.


----------



## nonStopSwagger

One though that comes to mind, when this thing is eventually released somebody is going to make a lot of money on YouTube. For example have someone who administers driving tests rank FSD after sitting in it (cameras rolling of course) and going through the driving test scenarios for 15 minutes. Would be solid gold!


----------



## JasonF

M3OC Rules said:


> Its not going to happen all at once and take a long time. I would expect much less drama.


I think that depends. Remember, just recently all of the U.S. manufacturers stopped producing their low-margin cars, and ceded control of that market to Hyundai, Nissan, and Toyota with the claim that Americans are only buying large SUV's. The real end result is that U.S. auto makers like General Motors increased the average prices of their cars - and the Japanese brands look to be poised to follow suit, leaving only Korean brands for non-SUV's. In the end, that means the prices of non-luxury new vehicles is increasing dramatically, without actually raising the prices.

So using the analogy of cloud services above, the automakers have _already_ taken the first step to pushing people away from buying new, whether they realize it or not. As more and more people get priced out of new cars, the used prices go up too, and then eventually _any_ cars become unaffordable to a lot of people. Then creating a "rental" system (like that subscription taxi service) becomes the way for automakers to stay alive in a collapsing market.

An alternative might be if automakers start offering 8 to 10 year warranties and 8 to 10 year financing or leasing, and just expect people to keep the cars far longer, but history has shown an unwillingness to do that. They might be more willing if they knew it would encourage people to buy new instead of used, or if there was some kind of insurance cost benefit to it that would draw customers in. Tesla seems like it might be the most likely company to be willing to do that, once their initial run of 3's and Y's approach 10 years old, and they can prove to their board and stockholders that it won't cost the company much more.

If it does happen, I don't think it will be all that dramatic, either. Like anything that ends up inconvenient these days, I think most people would just quietly accept the change as being necessary, just like with airport security in 2001, or Covid in 2020.


----------



## evannole

Needsdecaf said:


> Yup. This is why when offered EAP to buy for $4k I passed. $4k simply to not have to change lanes myself and use dumb summon? Rather buy some coilovers.
> 
> Also, there is a huge gap, I mean a yawning chasm between one of these features "working" (i.e. it can do what you ask without crashing) and working well enough so that it doesn't cause me stress. The sole purpose of these aids is to make driving LESS STRESSFUL. If I have to stress over when the car's going to make a lane change, is it going to cut off the bro-dozer who will likely then shoot me, well then even if it "works" it doesn't actually get it's job done.


I have EAP, as my car is from mid-2018, so I have had access to auto lane changes all along. It works marvelously. I don't allow it to suggest lane changes or initiate them on its own, but it has advanced to the point that when I am ready to make a lane change and I hit the signal, it almost always begins its move at the exact same moment that I would. Changes are executed smoothly and safely, and it's never made one that I considered dangerous; for a point of reference, I am a very cautious and defensive driver. (When using auto lane change, I do exactly as I would do if I were changing lanes myself: I check both my mirrors and the view over my shoulder before I turn on the signal and again just before I anticipate that it's going to make its move.) It really is a great feature, and if we get a second Tesla, we'll be sorely tempted to pay for it.

If you already have HW3 and don't want to pay for FSD because it adds nothing but lane change and autopark, I really don't blame you. It's for just this reason that EAP really is the sweetspot, as far as features go, in my view, at least. I only paid for FSD so I could get HW3 as I expect it will eventually be necessary to enjoy continued improvements to the on-highway EAP experience. I can't remember if any cars with HW3 were made while EAP could still be purchased, but if that was a real thing, then those folks got the best of both worlds.


----------



## Needsdecaf

evannole said:


> I have EAP, as my car is from mid-2018, so I have had access to auto lane changes all along. It works marvelously. I don't allow it to suggest lane changes or initiate them on its own, but it has advanced to the point that when I am ready to make a lane change and I hit the signal, it almost always begins its move at the exact same moment that I would. Changes are executed smoothly and safely, and it's never made one that I considered dangerous; for a point of reference, I am a very cautious and defensive driver. (When using auto lane change, I do exactly as I would do if I were changing lanes myself: I check both my mirrors and the view over my shoulder before I turn on the signal and again just before I anticipate that it's going to make its move.) It really is a great feature, and if we get a second Tesla, we'll be sorely tempted to pay for it.
> 
> If you already have HW3 and don't want to pay for FSD because it adds nothing but lane change and autopark, I really don't blame you. It's for just this reason that EAP really is the sweetspot, as far as features go, in my view, at least. I only paid for FSD so I could get HW3 as I expect it will eventually be necessary to enjoy continued improvements to the on-highway EAP experience. I can't remember if any cars with HW3 were made while EAP could still be purchased, but if that was a real thing, then those folks got the best of both worlds.


I had EAP on my first Model 3 and drove it for nearly 34k miles up until March of 2020. Was on HW 2.5.

I never saw behavior like you suggest. Yes, the changes were smooth when they happened. However the only time they worked well was when there was no traffic around. Otherwise I got either extreme hesitation / delays or outright kamikaze NYC style driving. Go for the gap at all costs. I'd say less than 25% of the lane changes executed while in traffic were how I would do it. And I'd say that 10% of them were aborted. I never allowed the auto suggested or initiated either.

My new car has HW3 and I was tempted to get EAP when it was available last year. But the lane change feature and dumb summon were the only things I was really interested in and the lane changes just weren't smooth enough.

Maybe your traffic is less dense than mine, or people don't have as much overtaking speed? Dunno. We have lots of miles of 4 and 5 lane highways with people diving all over the place.


----------



## Bigriver

evannole said:


> I can't remember if any cars with HW3 were made while EAP could still be purchased, but if that was a real thing, then those folks got the best of both worlds.


I not only in general agreed with your post above, but my agreement was total - point by point. As for HW3 and EAP overlap, no, HW3 was introduced just as they stopped offering EAP. I think there are 2 scenarios that a car can have HW3 with EAP:
- Cars made after March 2019 with HW3 who then bought EAP in the brief period it was offered in second half of 2020.
- Model S/X cars made before March 2018 with MCU1 who bought EAP before March 2019, then have purchased the infotainment (MCU2) upgrade starting mid-2020. Although not "advertised" by Tesla, it has been found that hardware change also includes HW3.


----------



## evannole

Needsdecaf said:


> I had EAP on my first Model 3 and drove it for nearly 34k miles up until March of 2020. Was on HW 2.5.
> 
> I never saw behavior like you suggest. Yes, the changes were smooth when they happened. However the only time they worked well was when there was no traffic around. Otherwise I got either extreme hesitation / delays or outright kamikaze NYC style driving. Go for the gap at all costs. I'd say less than 25% of the lane changes executed while in traffic were how I would do it. And I'd say that 10% of them were aborted. I never allowed the auto suggested or initiated either.
> 
> My new car has HW3 and I was tempted to get EAP when it was available last year. But the lane change feature and dumb summon were the only things I was really interested in and the lane changes just weren't smooth enough.
> 
> Maybe your traffic is less dense than mine, or people don't have as much overtaking speed? Dunno. We have lots of miles of 4 and 5 lane highways with people diving all over the place.


I had a good chuckle at that last bit. I live in Atlanta. I-75/85 through town is 7 lanes in each direction at some points, and I-75 is as wide as 9 lanes northbound just north of 285. People routinely drive 65+ right downtown and 80+ just south or north of the city center. (I typically aim for 8 mph over the speed limit.)

My car's auto lane changes used to be pretty iffy (mostly just balky-rarely did it do anything remotely dangerous) but it now handles all of these highways with aplomb, whether traffic is moving quickly or not, whether the highways are crowded or not. I haven't been driving much during the pandemic, particularly on the interstate, but happened to be on 285 in heavy traffic the other day, moving around 35-40 mph with cars all over the place. I needed to get over a couple of lanes and was extremely glad that I had the feature, as the changes it made were done quickly, fluidly and safely, despite having a fairly limited amount of space.


----------



## vinnie97

JasonF said:


> Part of that also depends on whether you believe the General Motors' CEO assertion that the era of personal car ownership is coming to an end, and that the future is in people subscribing to self-driving taxi services (and the associated GM plan to switch over to building cars for a taxi service instead of cars for customers).
> 
> I believe people want to own their own cars. Whether the manufacturers eventually make that impossible is another matter. In the current form of ride-sharing, however, it would amount to a drastic cost increase for simply getting around. I calculated once how much it would cost to have Uber take me to work and back every day - it turned out to be about $200 a week, which is way more than even buying a Performance Model 3 with no down payment! And it comes with the downside of making it more difficult to simply run out for a quick errand, because you would have to order your ride and wait for it to arrive first. Obviously if you live in a large city and have to pay astronomical rates for parking, or live someplace where walking is just as easy, that view drastically changes.


It's not just the GM CEO. The WORLD Economic Forum (with which this CEO is likely associated) has ensured us we'll own nothing by 2030, and we'll be happy! Hopefully, people vote accordingly in great numbers going forward if they care anything about autonomy (assuming it's even possible to vote one's way out of this top down lockdown of humanity).


----------



## Needsdecaf

evannole said:


> I had a good chuckle at that last bit. I live in Atlanta. I-75/85 through town is 7 lanes in each direction at some points, and I-75 is as wide as 9 lanes northbound just north of 285. People routinely drive 65+ right downtown and 80+ just south or north of the city center. (I typically aim for 8 mph over the speed limit.)
> 
> My car's auto lane changes used to be pretty iffy (mostly just balky-rarely did it do anything remotely dangerous) but it now handles all of these highways with aplomb, whether traffic is moving quickly or not, whether the highways are crowded or not. I haven't been driving much during the pandemic, particularly on the interstate, but happened to be on 285 in heavy traffic the other day, moving around 35-40 mph with cars all over the place. I needed to get over a couple of lanes and was extremely glad that I had the feature, as the changes it made were done quickly, fluidly and safely, despite having a fairly limited amount of space.


I have not used EAP features on a HW 3.0 car, nor since any software since March 2020. So it's possible it's gotten better since then for sure. But for the 14 months and 34k miles I drove my old car, my results were decidedly inconsistent.


----------



## JasonF

vinnie97 said:


> It's not just the GM CEO. The WORLD Economic Forum (with which this CEO is likely associated) has ensured us we'll own nothing by 2030, and we'll be happy! Hopefully, people vote accordingly in great numbers going forward if they care anything about autonomy (assuming it's even possible to vote one's way out of this top down lockdown of humanity).


Funny story, this capitalist/communist/oligarchy merging has been a dream of companies forever. It was attempted at the beginning of the industrial revolution where companies would supply housing and food and basically own you. And attempted again with mining or oil "company towns". And even Walt Disney proposed it as the original EPCOT, a large city where people would live and work, but nobody would own anything - it would all be owned by Disney.

So I guess it's no surprise that the World Economic forum, made up of large companies like General Motors, would keep that dream alive.

I often tell people that communism and oligarchy are basically the same. Just imagine Comcast running _everything_, and badly, but you can't even complain about it or you could end up in prison.


----------



## M3OC Rules

JasonF said:


> I think that depends. Remember, just recently all of the U.S. manufacturers stopped producing their low-margin cars, and ceded control of that market to Hyundai, Nissan, and Toyota with the claim that Americans are only buying large SUV's. The real end result is that U.S. auto makers like General Motors increased the average prices of their cars - and the Japanese brands look to be poised to follow suit, leaving only Korean brands for non-SUV's. In the end, that means the prices of non-luxury new vehicles is increasing dramatically, without actually raising the prices.
> 
> So using the analogy of cloud services above, the automakers have _already_ taken the first step to pushing people away from buying new, whether they realize it or not. As more and more people get priced out of new cars, the used prices go up too, and then eventually _any_ cars become unaffordable to a lot of people. Then creating a "rental" system (like that subscription taxi service) becomes the way for automakers to stay alive in a collapsing market.
> 
> An alternative might be if automakers start offering 8 to 10 year warranties and 8 to 10 year financing or leasing, and just expect people to keep the cars far longer, but history has shown an unwillingness to do that. They might be more willing if they knew it would encourage people to buy new instead of used, or if there was some kind of insurance cost benefit to it that would draw customers in. Tesla seems like it might be the most likely company to be willing to do that, once their initial run of 3's and Y's approach 10 years old, and they can prove to their board and stockholders that it won't cost the company much more.
> 
> If it does happen, I don't think it will be all that dramatic, either. Like anything that ends up inconvenient these days, I think most people would just quietly accept the change as being necessary, just like with airport security in 2001, or Covid in 2020.


Did you have a bad experience with Uber or haven't tried it? People use it because they want to, not because they have to. If it was inconvenient why would people use it? The reason people don't use it as much outside of urban areas is due to cost which robotaxis plan on dramatically reducing. There will be some resistance to change. Just like some people like a manual transmission and loud engines and windy roads and everything to stay the way it was. But the vast majority will prefer it eventually and it will be a slow transition. How well did GM predict where we are now 20 years ago?


----------



## garsh

M3OC Rules said:


> The reason people don't use it as much outside of urban areas is due to cost which robotaxis plan on dramatically reducing.


I disagree. The reason people prefer to own their own vehicles outside of urban areas is time and convenience.

It may only take 5 minutes for a taxi/uber to show up in a city. And in a city, my own car is generally parked in some garage or lot that would require walking several blocks, so it's not much of a difference in time, and arguably more convenient to not have to walk to/from a parking garage.

But outside of a city? There are fewer taxi/ubers and they take much longer to get to you. I don't want to wait 15-45 minutes or more for my ride to show up to take me somewhere - I just want to hop in a car conveniently located where I live.


----------



## JasonF

M3OC Rules said:


> Did you have a bad experience with Uber or haven't tried it? People use it because they want to, not because they have to. If it was inconvenient why would people use it? The reason people don't use it as much outside of urban areas is due to cost which robotaxis plan on dramatically reducing. There will be some resistance to change. Just like some people like a manual transmission and loud engines and windy roads and everything to stay the way it was. But the vast majority will prefer it eventually and it will be a slow transition. How well did GM predict where we are now 20 years ago?


I don't live in a dense city, I live in the middle of suburban sprawl. That means if I request an Uber, there is _always_ a wait. Even if it's only 15 minutes (it generally will be longer in a suburban neighborhood, because there's no reason for the drivers to hang around) that makes short trips to buy things I need no longer worth it. And because it's the sprawling suburbs, it's too far to walk. That means, in the abscence of a personal car, opting for delivery for _everything_, which if no one has a personal car, quite literally spells the end of suburban neighborhood retail and restaurants. It makes more sense for those to centralize in a hub-and-spoke configuration if they no longer have to be convenient for neighborhoods, and only need to manage "sometime today" delivery times.

Also, as taxi services become more popular because less and less people are allowed to have cars or can afford them, the wait times would increase dramatically, because it simply wouldn't make sense to have enough cars standing by for _everyone_. That's where you end up getting stranded somewhere for hours because it's raining, and everyone is trying to get taxis home at once.

And yes, I know that some people will say that suburban sprawl isn't natural, and everyone should move to dense cities instead where they can walk more and live without cars. That would certainly solve the problem, except that if that suddenly becomes super desirable because cars aren't afforable, no one would be able to afford to live there.


----------



## M3OC Rules

garsh said:


> I disagree. The reason people prefer to own their own vehicles outside of urban areas is time and convenience.
> 
> It may only take 5 minutes for a taxi/uber to show up in a city. And in a city, my own car is generally parked in some garage or lot that would require walking several blocks, so it's not much of a difference in time, and arguably more convenient to not have to walk to/from a parking garage.
> 
> But outside of a city? There are fewer taxi/ubers and they take much longer to get to you. I don't want to wait 15-45 minutes or more for my ride to show up to take me somewhere - I just want to hop in a car conveniently located where I live.


You can't solve the wait time issue until you solve the cost issue and get demand up. It's a chicken and egg situation but with a human driver you can't ever get the cost down enough even if you can drive up demand with pricing at a loss.


----------



## Mr. Spacely

Needsdecaf said:


> *I have not used EAP features on a HW 3.0 car, nor since any software since March 2020. * So it's possible it's gotten better since then for sure. But for the 14 months and 34k miles I drove my old car, my results were decidedly inconsistent.


Then why have you been saying disparaging things about EAP and Tesla for the last year?


----------



## Needsdecaf

Mr. Spacely said:


> Then why have you been saying disparaging things about EAP and Tesla for the last year?


Because that was my experience based off of 14 months and 34,000 miles of driving My old car. I haven't seen anything posted on this forum or the other one that would lead me to believe that my experiences are somehow completely out of line with current observations.

I've never been anything other than transparent about my experiences, good and bad. I've never tried to claim I still have EAP. In fact, I go out of my way to mention that I no longer have it because I believe it's important for people to understand that.

i still have a Model 3, and have driven it coming up on 22,000 miles in the last 11 months. Many of those miles, probably over 75%, have been on TACC / AS. Most of what I have discussed in that time has been related to my experiences on that setup, Although I do occasionally post about experiences with my old car when relevant, as above. And from what I have seen of TACC / AS behavior on HW3 over that last 11 months, I doubt that EAP has improved sufficiently enough to change my overall opinion. Basic TACC / AS behavior on my HW3 car is not vastly different than on my HW 2.5 car.

If you think what I'm saying is dispariging, all I can say is I'm sorry you feel that way. I have more than sufficient basis to make my opinions.


----------



## Garlan Garner

JCE said:


> I will say as a Tesla Owner and Tesla fan-the pricing of FSD is getting out of hand at $10k. While I did order it for my Y-I bought it for $6k when I ordered the car, it seems to be driving up the price of the car without much benefit other than a cool party trick.


The original price of FSD was $8k.

$5k for EAP + $3k for FSD

In 3 years ( since the first Model 3 came out ) it has gone from $8k to $10k. I don't see that as out of hand.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Needsdecaf said:


> Here's a novel theory....stop increasing the freaking price until it does what it says on the tin.
> 
> All this price increase based on the ludicrous assertion that it will "increase the value of the car" makes it look like a snake oil scam. Just leave it as is until the feature set is complete. Then jack it to whatever you want. The market will speak.


I don't see Tesla as a viable company until the Model 3 came out.

Model 3 came out 3 years ago and to get FSD you spent $8k.

Now its $10k.

Its simple...if $2k is breaking your bank...then don't buy it.

Model S and X buyers......is $2k breaking your bank? If so....then look at a Model 3 or Y.
Model 3 and Y buyers......is $2k breaking your bank? If so....then you shouldn't buy it.
Tesla.... if people are buying it - Good on ya.


----------



## Garlan Garner

SoFlaModel3 said:


> removing EAP as an option. Right now, AP is included and I would wager a guess that the vast majority want AP (Autosteer) + Lane Change. No one in their right mind would pay $10,000 for Lane Change though but you seemingly have no choice since you're forced to deal without having it or jump up to FSD.


People aren't paying $10k for Lane Change.

Lastly,

I understand the frustration about FSD not being released in a timely fashion and there has been a TON of discussion / complaints about it. I have a different take on it though.

Even though Tesla is leading the EV market on many fronts - they are still skating on top of thin "ice" ( pun intended). Anywhoo - If they release ANY version of software that starts crashing into other cars or objects then the confidence they have established on safety/reliability will be a thing of the past.

I mean....I'm already bracing for the "fakes" that are going to claim that FSD caused "this accident and that violation".. I hope Tesla is ready also. I hope Tesla has measures in place ( camera video being one ) to defend themselves. I hope Tesla has a stadium full of lawyers that are going to have to debunk all of the claims coming their way.

Its quite possible that Tesla is rolling this out to a couple thousand at a time is the best possible public way to do it. I don't know...I didn't major in political science or behavioral science. Maybe its best to be able to tell the public we have a million miles of this super beta ( without issues ) before the widespread release.

IMO - FSD rollout is going to be Tesla's most dangerous endeavor in their history. If FSD doesn't work close to flawlessly....then they could potentially not sell another package. If FSD doesn't work close to flawlessly, then ridesharing will be an dream of the past. The wolves are out there waiting for Tesla to fail.

I say - Tesla - you better get it right. Its better if you don't release it too soon and go ahead and make a lot of people mad than to roll it out to please everyone and have it fail tragically.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Garlan Garner said:


> I don't see Tesla as a viable company until the Model 3 came out.
> 
> Model 3 came out 3 years ago and to get FSD you spent $8k.
> 
> Now its $10k.
> 
> Its simple...if $2k is breaking your bank...then don't buy it.
> 
> Model S and X buyers......is $2k breaking your bank? If so....then look at a Model 3 or Y.
> Model 3 and Y buyers......is $2k breaking your bank? If so....then you shouldn't buy it.
> Tesla.... if people are buying it - Good on ya.


Your point is taken.

However, I don't care for the constant threat of "buy it now, it's going to go up in the future" that Elon always hangs over everyone's head.

I also see it pretty disingenuous to increase it at ALL when you haven't even completed the full feature set. So it's not so much the actual cost, more of the principal.


----------



## FRC

Garlan Garner said:


> People aren't paying $10k for Lane Change.
> 
> Lastly,
> 
> I understand the frustration about FSD not being released in a timely fashion and there has been a TON of discussion / complaints about it. I have a different take on it though.
> 
> Even though Tesla is leading the EV market on many fronts - they are still skating on top of thin "ice" ( pun intended). Anywhoo - If they release ANY version of software that starts crashing into other cars or objects then the confidence they have established on safety/reliability will be a thing of the past.
> 
> I mean....I'm already bracing for the "fakes" that are going to claim that FSD caused "this accident and that violation".. I hope Tesla is ready also. I hope Tesla has measures in place ( camera video being one ) to defend themselves. I hope Tesla has a stadium full of lawyers that are going to have to debunk all of the claims coming their way.
> 
> Its quite possible that Tesla is rolling this out to a couple thousand at a time is the best possible public way to do it. I don't know...I didn't major in political science or behavioral science. Maybe its best to be able to tell the public we have a million miles of this super beta ( without issues ) before the widespread release.
> 
> IMO - FSD rollout is going to be Tesla's most dangerous endeavor in their history. If FSD doesn't work close to flawlessly....then they could potentially not sell another package. If FSD doesn't work close to flawlessly, then ridesharing will be an dream of the past. The wolves are out there waiting for Tesla to fail.
> 
> I say - Tesla - you better get it right. Its better if you don't release it too soon and go ahead and make a lot of people mad than to roll it out to please everyone and have it fail tragically.


All excellent points, and I completely agree with you. So, Tesla, please quit promising(for almost 3 years now) that FSD is right around the corner when it is not. I'll never understand why the "Under promise and over deliver" concept is so hard to implement.


----------



## JasonF

Garlan Garner said:


> Model S and X buyers......is $2k breaking your bank? If so....then look at a Model 3 or Y.
> Model 3 and Y buyers......is $2k breaking your bank? If so....then you shouldn't buy it.
> Tesla.... if people are buying it - Good on ya.


I just posted in another thread on this topic: There are a lot of people who finance a car, and budget on being able to afford a specific monthly payment. They can't roll an extra $10,000 into financing because that would cost something like an extra $100/month. And all of their free cash went into the down payment. So they're happy to have a new car now, but they don't have an extra $10,000 to spend on FSD after purchase, and yes, $2000 will quite literally break the bank.

A lot of what hurts Tesla as a brand are people who own one, and tell others either that if you can't afford to pay cash for it you shouldn't buy a Tesla, or that if you can't finance one and have a bunch of cash left over for extras, don't buy one. It sends out the message that the lower cost models like the 3 and Y are basically bait-and-switch, and they're still firmly in the realm where only wealthy buyers can and should try to buy them.


----------



## Mr. Spacely

Elon said this morning: "Tesla aims to release newest version of FSD Beta next month with wider access."


----------



## M3OC Rules

FRC said:


> All excellent points, and I completely agree with you. So, Tesla, please quit promising(for almost 3 years now) that FSD is right around the corner when it is not. I'll never understand why the "Under promise and over deliver" concept is so hard to implement.


That ship has sailed. They laid their bed on this years ago. I just heard Gene Munster say that releasing FSD Beta will have a significant impact on the stock when its released presumably this year. Imagine what would happen if they said it's going to be several years. They could break out EAP and FSD but they can't say they don't know when it's coming. I think they also believe they will get there soon.


----------



## iChris93

M3OC Rules said:


> I just heard Gene Munster say that releasing FSD Beta will have a significant impact on the stock when its released presumably this year.


Positive or negative impact?


----------



## M3OC Rules

iChris93 said:


> Positive or negative impact?


Positive. He feels good longer term on the stock like a year or more and mentioned FSD Beta showing progress towards FSD helping boost the stock back up.


----------



## JasonF

Really though, from a corporate point of view as opposed to an Elon view, the best thing Tesla can do as a company is improve Autopilot a little bit (possibly add Navigate On AP as a permanent feature) and then stop talking about Full Self Drive publicly at all. Let press leaks handle the talk about it still being tested. And then re-announce it when it's ready.

I say that because it's getting harder and harder for people to take FSD seriously as long as Autopilot is being neglected, and Tesla's competition is starting to release alternatives that are better. You can't keep telling people that your better thing is "coming soon".


----------



## Long Ranger

Garlan Garner said:


> The original price of FSD was $8k.
> 
> $5k for EAP + $3k for FSD
> 
> In 3 years ( since the first Model 3 came out ) it has gone from $8k to $10k. I don't see that as out of hand.


I'd argue the price of the FSD feature set has gone from $5k to $10k. You're not accounting for the value of basic AP and Autosteer in that original $8k.

It was originally $5k for EAP + $3k for FSD, but you had to pay the $5k EAP price just to get basic AP and Autosteer. I recall most people justifying the $5k EAP price based upon the value of basic AP.

In Feb/Mar 2019 they stopped offering EAP and the choices were basic AP for $3k and what's being sold as today's FSD feature set for $5k. That exact FSD package has gone from $5k to $10k.


----------



## wellerjohn

SoFlaModel3 said:


> Is anyone like me, getting more and more disappointed (or perhaps discouraged) each time Elon Tweets about Full Self Drive. To clarify, yes I realize FSD is a suite and some of it is delivered so we are really talking about NoAP City Roads. The long overdue feature has been in limited public beta for quite some time. In my opinion there have been a series of missteps...
> 
> 
> raising the price by $2,000 when it reached beta. Why raise the price when everyday customers can't get the new functionality
> setting no actual/realistic timeline expectations -- some customers are going on 4 years having paid for FSD with no deliverable in sight
> not valuing FSD on trade in (you have to sell private to get value out of FSD) / at the same time telling customers FSD will appreciate the value of their vehicle
> allowing some of the public beta testers to share on social. This now more or less rubs it in the face of everyone who spent the money and has seen nothing for it.
> removing EAP as an option. Right now, AP is included and I would wager a guess that the vast majority want AP (Autosteer) + Lane Change. No one in their right mind would pay $10,000 for Lane Change though but you seemingly have no choice since you're forced to deal without having it or jump up to FSD.
> Well said, personally I will not purchase the cyber truck without FSD being out a functional. I'm going on 2 years and 25K miles and still don't have what was promised at the end of 2019.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Long Ranger said:


> I'd argue the price of the FSD feature set has gone from $5k to $10k. You're not accounting for the value of basic AP and Autosteer in that original $8k.
> 
> It was originally $5k for EAP + $3k for FSD, but you had to pay the $5k EAP price just to get basic AP and Autosteer. I recall most people justifying the $5k EAP price based upon the value of basic AP.
> 
> In Feb/Mar 2019 they stopped offering EAP and the choices were basic AP for $3k and what's being sold as today's FSD feature set for $5k. That exact FSD package has gone from $5k to $10k.


I told my son once....meet me at the school for baseball practice at 3- its right down the block....however if you want to go all the way around the world in the opposite direction to get there....that's fine with me - just be there.

Again.

All I've ever wanted was FSD.

For me to get FSD when I bought my car....I had to pay $8k. Now you gotta pay $10k. That's the bottom line.

How one ends up at the bottom line is immaterial to me.


----------



## Garlan Garner

JasonF said:


> A lot of what hurts Tesla as a brand are people who own one, and tell others either that if you can't afford to pay cash for it you shouldn't buy a Tesla, or that if you can't finance one and have a bunch of cash left over for extras, don't buy one. It sends out the message that the lower cost models like the 3 and Y are basically bait-and-switch, and they're still firmly in the realm where only wealthy buyers can and should try to buy them.


Buying a Tesla is buying a car.

There should be no different advice on buying a Tesla than there is buying any other vehicle.

Bad advice doesn't hurt Tesla - It hurts people's credibility.


----------



## Garlan Garner

FRC said:


> All excellent points, and I completely agree with you. So, Tesla, please quit promising(for almost 3 years now) that FSD is right around the corner when it is not. I'll never understand why the "Under promise and over deliver" concept is so hard to implement.


I have always agreed that Tesla's timing is atrocious.

However....

Everything Tesla has delivered so far has been Under promised and over delivered....

So....I don't understand your statement about this concept being so hard to implement.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Needsdecaf said:


> Your point is taken.
> 
> However, I don't care for the constant threat of "buy it now, it's going to go up in the future" that Elon always hangs over everyone's head.
> 
> I also see it pretty disingenuous to increase it at ALL when you haven't even completed the full feature set. So it's not so much the actual cost, more of the principal.


I don't think the statement " its going to go up in the future" is a threat.

It will.

We aren't in the future yet.

As far as FSD is concerned - We are all in that twilight zone of development where FSD has started - its partially rolled out - and not finished yet. For some reason Elon can see the future price that HE is going to set. Nothing confusing about that.


----------



## Garlan Garner

JasonF said:


> Really though, from a corporate point of view as opposed to an Elon view, the best thing Tesla can do as a company is improve Autopilot a little bit (possibly add Navigate On AP as a permanent feature) and then stop talking about Full Self Drive publicly at all. Let press leaks handle the talk about it still being tested. And then re-announce it when it's ready.
> 
> I say that because it's getting harder and harder for people to take FSD seriously as long as Autopilot is being neglected, and Tesla's competition is starting to release alternatives that are better. You can't keep telling people that your better thing is "coming soon".


Elon isn't really talking about FSD all that much. He really isn't.

He is being asked in interviews about it and responds. Same thing concerning tweeting. He's trying to be open. That's who he is and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.

Now if you think he should stop answering questions in interviews about it and responding about it in twitter....then .......ok.

Remember: a single statement from Elon gets posted in 4 thousand tweets and 100 YouTube video's and 1 million times in this forum. One single statement.
I would HATE to be him in that sense. He can't even have a simple conversation about what he thinks. Everything HAS to be a perfect statement.

For example: Look at this thread:
FSD Beta | Tesla Owners Online
They guy He's just trying to answer a question and be informative. Lets get the dictionary out on the word "wider". See what I mean?

I really wouldn't mind being Elons friend - as I would allow him to be wrong as much as he wants. Most of the time I wouldn't even care what he means.
For example: most of my friends are always wrong. I don't care. lol


----------



## JasonF

Garlan Garner said:


> Elon isn't really talking about FSD all that much. He really isn't.


I _personally_ like him keeping us up to date with what Tesla is working on. It's just that even though it's my preference, it's not really what's good for the company where FSD is concerned. It's a bit like what would have happened if Steve Jobs would have bragged publicly about the progress on the iPhone for the 3 years it was in development before it was released. The iPhone would still have come out, and still would have been revolutionary, but during those 3 years, a lot of people would have lost faith in the company and walked away in the mean time because of the long development time and broken promises.

Of course Tesla is a much bigger company than it was 2 years ago, so maybe it can weather a little loss of faith in FSD. But it really has to keep the awesomeness of its other products high to do so.


----------



## Garlan Garner

JasonF said:


> I _personally_ like him keeping us up to date with what Tesla is working on. It's just that even though it's my preference, it's not really what's good for the company where FSD is concerned. It's a bit like what would have happened if Steve Jobs would have bragged publicly about the progress on the iPhone for the 3 years it was in development before it was released. The iPhone would still have come out, and still would have been revolutionary, but during those 3 years, a lot of people would have lost faith in the company and walked away in the mean time because of the long development time and broken promises.


I understand what you are saying Jason. I agree to an extent.

The problem isn't Elon. He is not doing anything "wrong" at all. The problem is people.

Society won't allow a person like Elon to be himself.

Lets find another ICON to compare him to and complain that Elon doesn't fit in their box of behavior.

Its not going to get any better.

That's why I pray that Elon and people like him have some moral / good and decent people to let him know that he isn't doing anything WRONG or illegal and to keep doing what you are doing. Elon - you got here being yourself - keep doing it.


----------



## DocScott

Garlan Garner said:


> IMO - FSD rollout is going to be Tesla's most dangerous endeavor in their history. If FSD doesn't work close to flawlessly....then they could potentially not sell another package. If FSD doesn't work close to flawlessly, then ridesharing will be an dream of the past. The wolves are out there waiting for Tesla to fail.


It's worse than that.

If FSD doesn't work pretty much on its own pretty soon, then most of the people who have _already_ paid for FSD are going to demand their money back. That would be a nightmare for Tesla, even if they prevailed legally. The damage to their brand would be massive.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Garlan Garner said:


> I told my son once....meet me at the school for baseball practice at 3- its right down the block....however if you want to go all the way around the world in the opposite direction to get there....that's fine with me - just be there.
> 
> Again.
> 
> All I've ever wanted was FSD.
> 
> For me to get FSD when I bought my car....I had to pay $8k. Now you gotta pay $10k. That's the bottom line.
> 
> How one ends up at the bottom line is immaterial to me.


What if they change the base price of the car to account for adding part of the options into the base?


----------



## Needsdecaf

Garlan Garner said:


> I don't think the statement " its going to go up in the future" is a threat.
> 
> It will.
> 
> We aren't in the future yet.
> 
> As far as FSD is concerned - We are all in that twilight zone of development where FSD has started - its partially rolled out - and not finished yet. For some reason Elon can see the future price that HE is going to set. Nothing confusing about that.


You see a visionary. You want to be his friend.

I see salesman shill. I want people to get what they bought. I could care less about the CEO.

It most certainly is a threat. "You're gonna wanna buy it now" is totally a sales pitch. Trying to hype a product's future price when the product you currently have isn't even available to the people who bought it is pretty disingenuous, at the least. Fraud at the worst.


----------



## JasonF

DocScott said:


> It's worse than that.
> 
> If FSD doesn't work pretty much on its own pretty soon, then most of the people who have _already_ paid for FSD are going to demand their money back. That would be a nightmare for Tesla, even if they prevailed legally. The damage to their brand would be massive.


I don't think that will happen. The good part (for Tesla) about pricing FSD so high, and positioning it as a feature only people with a lot of cash lying around can afford is that those are people who can afford to lose $8,000 to $10,000, and many of which would just shrug and forget about it. It's like an average person losing $100 - they might be briefly upset about it, but in the end, it's not worth the fight to get it back. Whoever above said that if losing $10,000 will break you, don't buy FSD, that's wise advice in this context.

Will those people never buy a Tesla again, though? There's no way to tell for certain. Some of the people who put money into FSD still feel like it was worth the money. And with new exclusively luxury focused EV's being thrown into the mix (like Lucid), some of the people who switch brands might do so to get away from Tesla becoming mainstream - to join a more "exclusive" club, so to speak - moreso than because they didn't get their money's worth.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Needsdecaf said:


> You see a visionary. You want to be his friend.
> 
> I see salesman shill. I want people to get what they bought. I could care less about the CEO.
> 
> It most certainly is a threat. "You're gonna wanna buy it now" is totally a sales pitch. Trying to hype a product's future price when the product you currently have isn't even available to the people who bought it is pretty disingenuous, at the least. Fraud at the worst.


To me.....

EVERYONE who has purchased FSD so far believes in the future. I don't believe that anyone who has purchased FSD so far...purchased it because of what was offered "at the time of purchase". We all believe in what Elon has said what the features are "going to be". Why not believe also in what the price "is going to be".

When we bought FSD it certainly didn't look like this:
(36) Model 3 - Beta FSD 8.2 - Test Loop 1 - 2021.4.11.1 - 3 March 2021 - YouTube
The details about FSD are coming true, why won't the increased price also?

To me the details of FSD and the price of FSD are equally believable. No difference.


----------



## iChris93

Garlan Garner said:


> The details about FSD are coming true, why won't the increased price also?


Because I bought FSD as a $3k add-on because they told me it would cost at least $4k after purchase. Then they briefly offered it for $2k. Their word is meaningless when it comes to FSD.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Garlan Garner said:


> To me.....
> 
> EVERYONE who has purchased FSD so far believes in the future. I don't believe that anyone who has purchased FSD so far...purchased it because of what was offered "at the time of purchase". We all believe in what Elon has said what the features are "going to be". Why not believe also in what the price "is going to be".
> 
> When we bought FSD it certainly didn't look like this:
> (36) Model 3 - Beta FSD 8.2 - Test Loop 1 - 2021.4.11.1 - 3 March 2021 - YouTube
> The details about FSD are coming true, why won't the increased price also?
> 
> To me the details of FSD and the price of FSD are equally believable. No difference.


I think most people who bought FSD thought the future would be in the past by now.


----------



## Garlan Garner

iChris93 said:


> Because I bought FSD as a $3k add-on because they told me it would cost at least $4k after purchase. Then they briefly offered it for $2k. Their word is meaningless when it comes to FSD.


Their word is dead accurate on the tech side of FSD so far. The timing isn't, but the tech is bangin.

Is it $4k now? or $2k? Today is also the time after purchase.

Lets be totally honest: It wasn't just $3k.


----------



## iChris93

Garlan Garner said:


> Is it $4k now? or $2k? Today is also the time after purchase.
> 
> Lets be totally honest: It wasn't just $3k.


What are you talking about?

It was $3k. EAP cost me $5k. FSD was an additional $3k. I don't know what they would sell it to me now for because their scare tactics worked and I bought it at $3k. I know that I could have purchased it for less after delivery, contrary to what they told me a the time of purchase.

Here is a screenshot of my order agreement.


----------



## DocScott

JasonF said:


> I don't think that will happen. The good part (for Tesla) about pricing FSD so high, and positioning it as a feature only people with a lot of cash lying around can afford is that those are people who can afford to lose $8,000 to $10,000, and many of which would just shrug and forget about it. It's like an average person losing $100 - they might be briefly upset about it, but in the end, it's not worth the fight to get it back. Whoever above said that if losing $10,000 will break you, don't buy FSD, that's wise advice in this context.


FWIW, this was my experience:

I had to stretch for an M3. My wife and I both share one car, and my previous several cars had generally been decade old used mid-price sedans, like Altimas. But I thought an M3 would last me a while, would save me some on fuel, and I wanted the tax credit while it was available.

My plan was to wait for the SR, and get FSD, because if FSD did what was claimed and came when it was claimed, it seemed like another _huge _benefit. I had visions of being able to summon my car to pick me up from ten miles away. With one car and two people I was spending a fair amount on cabs/Lyft/etc..

But the plan hit two snags. One was that the tax credit was getting close to expiring. More importantly, my previous car was also expiring: it failed its state inspection, and repairing it would cost more than the car was worth. So I had to pull the trigger early, and stretch to get the LR RWD, in black, and without EAP or FSD.

As it turns out, I think I lucked out. I eventually took advantage of the fire sale to get AP for $2k. I got the tax credit, and I better understand the value of the bigger battery pack now. And I certainly don't mind that I didn't spend $6k more to get EAP and the so-far-non-existent FSD.

But that was just a sequence of lucky events for timing. I intended to get FSD, and it would have been a big stretch for me financially. I don't know how many others there are like me, but at least in those early M3 days not all the FSD purchasers were wealthy enough that the price didn't matter.


----------



## JasonF

DocScott said:


> FWIW, this was my experience:
> 
> I had to stretch for an M3.


I did pretty much exactly like you did, except that I _did_ intend to get whichever Model 3 model came out first (which turned out to be LR RWD in black) and I decided ahead of time that I couldn't justify getting either Autopilot or FSD due to my usual driving route to work being on city streets. And I also added AP later on when the price dropped enough, but that was a hard decision as well.


----------



## Garlan Garner

iChris93 said:


> What are you talking about?
> 
> It was $3k. EAP cost me $5k. FSD was an additional $3k. I don't know what they would sell it to me now for because their scare tactics worked and I bought it at $3k. I know that I could have purchased it for less after delivery, contrary to what they told me a the time of purchase.
> 
> Here is a screenshot of my order agreement.
> View attachment 37351


Really?

My order looks exactly the same as that one, however - you couldn't simply pay $3k for FSD if you didn't first of all buy EAP for $5k.

They appear itemized on the Maroney Sticker, but we all know how it worked. Come on.

That's why I keep saying - in order to get FSD in the past - you had to pay $8k. Period.

As a matter of fact....this is your $4k option you mentioned earlier. This is how Tesla's order page looked on September 18, 2019.









Tesla reintroduces 'Enhanced Autopilot' - offering cheaper alternative to 'Full Self-Driving' - Electrek

ALL of this is still in the process of becoming TRUE. Its the timing that is throwing everyone off into chaos. 3 years ago - these were the features. Tesla hasn't taken anything away or added anything.

Only one thing left - Autosteer on city streets. ( which is in double beta mode ). Everything else is pretty much done.

$8k - $10k so far.


----------



## FRC

Garlan Garner said:


> in order to get FSD in the past - you had to pay $8k. Period


I paid $7K. Period. You're wrong. Period.


----------



## Garlan Garner

FRC said:


> I paid $7K. Period. You're wrong. Period.


LOL

You got me.


----------



## iChris93

Garlan Garner said:


> you couldn't simply pay $3k for FSD if you didn't first of all buy EAP for $5k.


I couldn't pay $3k for FSD if I didn't first buy the $49k car. So really it cost $57k for FSD.


----------



## vinnie97

Well, 3-4 firmware updates in the last week with no visible changelog feel like a slap in the FACE to this early adopter.


----------



## Long Ranger

Garlan Garner said:


> This is how Tesla's order page looked on September 18, 2019.


Actually, that was September, 2020. In September 2019, FSD was $6k, not $8k.



Garlan Garner said:


> That's why I keep saying - in order to get FSD in the past - you had to pay $8k. Period.


In April of 2019, it was $5k (and with the same line items as today's $10k option):
http://web.archive.org/web/20190430223517/https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#autopilot


Garlan Garner said:


> Model 3 came out 3 years ago and to get FSD you spent $8k.
> 
> Now its $10k.
> 
> Its simple...if $2k is breaking your bank...then don't buy it.


$2k won't break my bank, but there's no way I'd purchase FSD at $10k today, even though I bought FSD in 2018. Most of us look at the specific line items that we're getting for each incremental cost and ask if it's worth it. I was willing to pay $5k to get autopilot and was willing to pay $3k to get HW3 and to see what happens with self driving. If Autopilot and HW3 had been included like they are now, I would not have been willing to pay another $8k for FSD. You obviously assign a high value to the self-driving line item, that's fine, but many of us don't and purchased these options for other reasons.



Garlan Garner said:


> People aren't paying $10k for Lane Change.


That's exactly the problem. Lane Change is a useful, practical feature that exists today, and a new buyer should be able to purchase it without making a big wager on the future of self driving.


----------



## Bigriver

Garlan Garner said:


> As a matter of fact....this is your $4k option you mentioned earlier. This is how Tesla's order page looked on September 18, 2019.


I'm confused about what you are showing a screen shot of and I question the date. Did you mean 2018 instead of 2019? I do not believe EAP was ever offered on a new car after March 2019, once autopilot started being included as part of the base price.


----------



## Long Ranger

Bigriver said:


> I'm confused about what you are showing a screen shot of and I question the date. Did you mean 2018 instead of 2019? I do not believe EAP was ever offered on a new car after March 2019, once autopilot started being included as part of the base price.


He meant Sep 2020. They briefly brought back EAP as an end of quarter promotion.


----------



## Klaus-rf

FRC said:


> I paid $7K. Period. You're wrong. Period.


I bought during the fire sale. Total for AP *and* FSD cme to $5K/US (plus tax).


----------



## Bigriver

Long Ranger said:


> He meant Sep 2020. They briefly brought back EAP as an end of quarter promotion.


Ah thanks. And then that explains why EAP is listed as $4k, as I'm quite sure it was always $5k before they rolled autopilot into the base price.



Klaus-rf said:


> I bought during the fire sale. Total for AP *and* FSD cme to $5K/US (plus tax).


And that was indeed a smoking hot fire sale. The lowest price ever offered.


----------



## NR4P

Musk just tweeted to let us know that they are expanding FSD beta and will let more peeps in. He said let us know. But no information how to. Another FSD tweet. 

"If you want the Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta downloaded to your car, let us know. Doubling beta program size now with 8.2 & probably 10X size with 8.3. Still be careful, but it’s getting mature."


----------



## JasonF

Someone beat me to posting about it, but...










Somewhat typical to his tweets, he left no instructions whatsoever. So I don't know if he means people who purchased FSD or anyone, or if you get to keep FSD after the testing if it's the latter, and what AP hardware version is required, or if he wants them all tested. Or even how to apply.

I guess we'll find out sometime next week...


----------



## JjaegerMS

iChris93 said:


> Do we know this?


I bought FSD. Was never told whenO bought it that it didn't work. I knew it was beta but ithoughtitwould perform. I watch videos of in-city driving a dis wish I had it. Even Summon doesn't work right on my 2021 Model S


----------



## Garlan Garner

Long Ranger said:


> Actually, that was September, 2020. In September 2019, FSD was $6k, not $8k.
> 
> In April of 2019, it was $5k (and with the same line items as today's $10k option):
> http://web.archive.org/web/20190430223517/https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#autopilot
> $2k won't break my bank, but there's no way I'd purchase FSD at $10k today, even though I bought FSD in 2018. Most of us look at the specific line items that we're getting for each incremental cost and ask if it's worth it. I was willing to pay $5k to get autopilot and was willing to pay $3k to get HW3 and to see what happens with self driving. If Autopilot and HW3 had been included like they are now, I would not have been willing to pay another $8k for FSD. You obviously assign a high value to the self-driving line item, that's fine, but many of us don't and purchased these options for other reasons.
> 
> That's exactly the problem. Lane Change is a useful, practical feature that exists today, and a new buyer should be able to purchase it without making a big wager on the future of self driving.


Oh boy.

We all know that Tesla has had sporadic "monthly" fire sales on FSD. That is totally immaterial in this discussion.

I wouldn't be surprised if FSD has changed price 50 times. BUT the bottom line is that the price isn't changing in a way to feed the OP"s concern.

Now...if you want to select items from FSD fine....but you won't be able to. It has never been that way. Its not a problem at all.

If FSD is a problem in any way.....I would encourage a person in a heart beat to not buy it.


----------



## Garlan Garner

JjaegerMS said:


> I bought FSD. Was never told whenO bought it that it didn't work. I knew it was beta but ithoughtitwould perform. I watch videos of in-city driving a dis wish I had it. Even Summon doesn't work right on my 2021 Model S


You could sell your vehicle and buy one without FSD.

Or better yet....maybe trade up to one of the new ones with the interior refresh.

Whichever you choose - research it before you buy it.


----------



## FRC

JasonF said:


> Someone beat me to posting about it, but...
> 
> View attachment 37371
> 
> 
> Somewhat typical to his tweets, he left no instructions whatsoever. So I don't know if he means people who purchased FSD or anyone, or if you get to keep FSD after the testing if it's the latter, and what AP hardware version is required, or if he wants them all tested. Or even how to apply.
> 
> I guess we'll find out sometime next week...


I have stumbled across a sign-up method for the expanded FSD beta program that Elon tweeted about recently. My car is currently in service, and when I tried to call the service department, one of the call options included this:

"If you would like to sign up for the expanded FSD Beta program, please e-mail [email protected]sla.com and include your name and VIN number"

Good luck!!


----------



## Bigriver

JjaegerMS said:


> I bought FSD. Was never told whenO bought it that it didn't work. I knew it was beta but ithoughtitwould perform. I watch videos of in-city driving a dis wish I had it. Even Summon doesn't work right on my 2021 Model S


Welcome to the forum. I am always sympathetic to people getting surprised by Tesla. The car is different, the company is different, and things aren't always as you expect. I have found that runs both directions, for the good and the bad.

When you purchased it, didn't it have text like this (which is currently on the website):








It does have the features that are currently listed, although Summon definitely needs work and I can't wait for them to take away the requirement to coax the car through green lights. That will happen. And we will get autosteer on city streets, finally "this year" will actually be 2021, I believe. How good it is will partially depend on expectations. Note that when you-tubers are saying it is great, they are excited when they went X minutes without having to intervene.

I'm 3.5 years into the autopilot journey, and I've gone from the car acting like a drunken sailor all the time to something that has revolutionized 400 mile trips that I make frequently. I can't say enough about the remarkable evolution that has occurred. Just one of the weird things Tesla does is to involve its customers in the evolution.


----------



## vinnie97

FRC said:


> I have stumbled across a sign-up method for the expanded FSD beta program that Elon tweeted about recently. My car is currently in service, and when I tried to call the service department, one of the call options included this:
> 
> "If you would like to sign up for the expanded FSD Beta program, please e-mail [email protected] and include your name and VIN number"
> 
> Good luck!!





Tesla EAP said:


> Thank you for emailing [email protected]. We appreciate your participation and feedback; all feature related feedback will be forwarded to the appropriate engineering team. If any additional information is needed, we will reach out directly.
> 
> If you would like to opt-out of the Early Access Program, please reply to this email and we will process your request.
> 
> For all vehicle related concerns please schedule a service appointment through your Tesla mobile app.
> 
> If you have any inquiries related to your Early Access Program membership status, we will reach out to you. *We are currently not accepting new members to the Early Access Program.*


----------



## FRC

Yeah, same response as I got. Not quite sure what it means. Is my request valid, or do I need to be in the early access group to be included? I'm not really concerned...If this is for early access people only, that's fine; I'm glad they're finally getting something. I certainly can wait. But, true to form, Tesla's response is ambiguous and confusing. Am I in? Don't know. Do I qualify? Not sure.


----------



## JasonF

As I said when I posted the tweet above, Elon has a habit of posting things to Twitter while the Tesla corporate offices are closed, and they don't get it figured out until the following business day (Monday).

He did the same thing when he announced the price decrease for Autopilot last year.


----------



## NickJonesS71

evannole said:


> (When using auto lane change, I do exactly as I would do if I were changing lanes myself: I check both my mirrors and the view over my shoulder before I turn on the signal and again just before I anticipate that it's going to make its move.)


To me this absolutely defeats the purpose. Same as you, feel the need to ABSOLUTELY double check the decisions the car wants to make. 


JasonF said:


> Will those people never buy a Tesla again, though?


I'm one of those people. Never again.


----------



## Long Ranger

Garlan Garner said:


> Oh boy.
> 
> We all know that Tesla has had sporadic "monthly" fire sales on FSD. That is totally immaterial in this discussion.
> 
> I wouldn't be surprised if FSD has changed price 50 times. BUT the bottom line is that the price isn't changing in a way to feed the OP"s concern.


Except I wasn't quoting any "fire sale" prices.
Pricing history of FSD:
2017-2018: $3k add-on to EAP.
Late 2018 to early 2019 FSD didn't appear on order page, you had to specially request it.
March 2019: They stop selling EAP. Options are now AP or an FSD package which includes EAP.
March 2019 "Fire Sale": AP for $2k, AP+EAP+FSD for $5k, or upgrade from EAP to FSD for $2k.
April 2019: $5k for FSD package (now includes EAP features), AP is included in all cars.
May-Oct 2019: $6k.
Nov 2019 - June 2020: $7k.
July-Oct 2020: $8k.
Nov 2020 - present: $10k.

Bottom line is that the price has continually gone up, and the Nov 2020 increase is exactly what OP calls out in point #1:


SoFlaModel3 said:


> raising the price by $2,000 when it reached beta. Why raise the price when everyday customers can't get the new functionality
> setting no actual/realistic timeline expectations -- some customers are going on 4 years having paid for FSD with no deliverable in sight
> not valuing FSD on trade in (you have to sell private to get value out of FSD) / at the same time telling customers FSD will appreciate the value of their vehicle
> allowing some of the public beta testers to share on social. This now more or less rubs it in the face of everyone who spent the money and has seen nothing for it.
> removing EAP as an option. Right now, AP is included and I would wager a guess that the vast majority want AP (Autosteer) + Lane Change. No one in their right mind would pay $10,000 for Lane Change though but you seemingly have no choice since you're forced to deal without having it or jump up to FSD.





Garlan Garner said:


> Now...if you want to select items from FSD fine....but you won't be able to. It has never been that way. Its not a problem at all.


Not a problem for you? Uh, there used to be this thing called EAP. Allowed purchase of Auto Lane Change/Summon/NOA/Autopark without wagering a lot of additional money on some future self-driving feature that may never be useful in the car you're purchasing today. See point 5 above from OP. That's exactly what we're talking about. I guess we'll see what happens in the future, but I just can't see Tesla sticking with this single $10k all-or-nothing option.


----------



## TrevP

Needsdecaf said:


> You see a visionary. You want to be his friend.
> 
> I see salesman shill. I want people to get what they bought. I could care less about the CEO.
> 
> It most certainly is a threat. "You're gonna wanna buy it now" is totally a sales pitch. Trying to hype a product's future price when the product you currently have isn't even available to the people who bought it is pretty disingenuous, at the least. Fraud at the worst.


I tell car salespeople, "if you bluff me that's the last you'll ever see of me."

Why, dear Lord, did I not stand by my words?!


----------



## TrevP

Long Ranger said:


> Except I wasn't quoting any "fire sale" prices.
> Pricing history of FSD:
> 2017-2018: $3k add-on to EAP.
> Late 2018 to early 2019 FSD didn't appear on order page, you had to specially request it.
> March 2019: They stop selling EAP. Options are now AP or an FSD package which includes EAP.
> March 2019 "Fire Sale": AP for $2k, AP+EAP+FSD for $5k, or upgrade from EAP to FSD for $2k.
> April 2019: $5k for FSD package (now includes EAP features), AP is included in all cars.
> May-Oct 2019: $6k.
> Nov 2019 - June 2020: $7k.
> July-Oct 2020: $8k.
> Nov 2020 - present: $10k.
> 
> Bottom line is that the price has continually gone up, and the Nov 2020 increase is exactly what OP calls out in point #1:
> 
> Not a problem for you? Uh, there used to be this thing called EAP. Allowed purchase of Auto Lane Change/Summon/NOA/Autopark without wagering a lot of additional money on some future self-driving feature that may never be useful in the car you're purchasing today. See point 5 above from OP. That's exactly what we're talking about. I guess we'll see what happens in the future, but I just can't see Tesla sticking with this single $10k all-or-nothing option.


Not a problem for you? Uh, there used to be this thing called EAP. Allowed purchase of Auto Lane Change/Summon/NOA/Autopark without wagering a lot of additional money on some future self-driving feature that may never be useful in the car you're purchasing today. See point 5 above from OP. That's exactly what we're talking about. I guess we'll see what happens in the future, but I just can't see Tesla sticking with this single $10k all-or-nothing option.
Long Ranger: Wasn't our early-issue of Enhanced Autopilot -- mine, in August of 2018 --almost exactly what''s now being touted as FSD?


----------



## Bigriver

Skagit Doug said:


> Wasn't our early-issue of Enhanced Autopilot -- mine, in August of 2018 --almost exactly what''s now being touted as FSD?


For people who have bought FSD but are not a part of the testing group, yes, the current capabilities are nothing more than was/is available for those with Enhanced Autopilot. The difference is that FSD will also include "city streets," meaning everything that is not highway. I think it is a much more complex problem than highway autopilot as there are a lot more potential hazards to be navigated around and includes stop lights, stop signs, round abouts and 90 degree turns, to name a few.

As many have noted, EAP is a sweet spot of some great features that make long distance traveling more relaxing and safer. FSD is to take that automation to a more local level, and ultimately is supposed to get us to the place of FULL SELF DRIVING.


----------



## TrevP

Thanks, Bigriver, I live in a community with a population that includes more cows than people!

There are a couple miles of secondary roads with speed limits of 25 MPH, but if I were to engage EAP before entering the freeway on-ramp, it shot me right up to 45 MPH -- the speed limit after crossing under the freeway!

ON a somewhat related note -- after a software update that seems like it occurred in January 2021 -- cruise-control forgot every speed limit it had leaned, and REFUSES to remember speed limit signs I've driven past a coupe hundred times since that update.

Again, thanks for helping me understand what's bounding around in Elon's head!


----------



## Bigriver

Skagit Doug said:


> And, first purchased a Model 3 -- with Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) and Early Access Program (EAP) - do you sense Elon names too may things EAP, like Microsoft names about eight things Outlook -- in July of 2018. I hated the car, and sold it to an eager buyer in October of that year.





Skagit Doug said:


> after a software update that seems like it occurred in January 2021


So you got rid of your 2018 model 3 but got a software update in January 2021. What car do you have now?


----------



## TrevP

Bigriver said:


> So you got rid of your 2018 model 3 but got a software update in January 2021. What car do you have now?


For some reason, Bigriver, I bought my second Model 3 in September 2020, after selling my first in October 2018. During that time, I was getting places by burning fossil fuel. 

Somehow, I just don't feel I have any right to screw up the environment any more than I must.

It's a decision, of which I'll never live long enough to see the results.


----------



## Bigriver

Skagit Doug said:


> For some reason, Bigriver, I bought my second Model 3 in September 2020, after selling my first in October 2018. During that time, I was getting places by burning fossil fuel.
> 
> Somehow, I just don't feel I have any right to screw up the environment any more than I must.
> 
> It's a decision, of which I'll never live long enough to see the results.


Hope you are liking it better the second time around. And thanks for helping the environment. I very much notice the smell of gasoline cars now and do hope they will be gone sooner than later.


----------



## TrevP

Bigriver said:


> Hope you are liking it better the second time around. And thanks for helping the environment. I very much notice the smell of gasoline cars now and do hope they will be gone sooner than later.


I understand its lack of capability better than I did with my first Model 3. But, I don't have EAP (FSD) on this car.

I had a loaner a month or so ago, and using Autopilot was scary as with my first Model 3, though.

Since it was a loaner (which I drove for nearly a month) I honestly don't know if it had HD3, or if it had its original HW2.5. I say this because I'd guess about half the time it made the wrong decision at gore-points at exit ramps. I wanted to let it be successful, but when I had to take control of the steering, thus disabling the driving-power, it get spooky looking in the mirrors to see if I'd soon be rear-ended! This was EXACTLY how my first Model 3 with EAP acted!


----------



## Garlan Garner

Long Ranger said:


> Except I wasn't quoting any "fire sale" prices.
> Pricing history of FSD:
> 2017-2018: $3k add-on to EAP.
> Late 2018 to early 2019 FSD didn't appear on order page, you had to specially request it.
> March 2019: They stop selling EAP. Options are now AP or an FSD package which includes EAP.
> March 2019 "Fire Sale": AP for $2k, AP+EAP+FSD for $5k, or upgrade from EAP to FSD for $2k.
> April 2019: $5k for FSD package (now includes EAP features), AP is included in all cars.
> May-Oct 2019: $6k.
> Nov 2019 - June 2020: $7k.
> July-Oct 2020: $8k.
> Nov 2020 - present: $10k.
> 
> Bottom line is that the price has continually gone up, and the Nov 2020 increase is exactly what OP calls out in point #1:
> 
> Not a problem for you? Uh, there used to be this thing called EAP. Allowed purchase of Auto Lane Change/Summon/NOA/Autopark without wagering a lot of additional money on some future self-driving feature that may never be useful in the car you're purchasing today. See point 5 above from OP. That's exactly what we're talking about. I guess we'll see what happens in the future, but I just can't see Tesla sticking with this single $10k all-or-nothing option.


I am not saying the price isn't increasing. You are quoting prices of FSD increasing. Who cares? The question is: How much do you have to pay in TOTAL to get FSD.
You quoted FSD being $3k in the beginning. You are absolutely correct. But you had to pay $8k to get FSD. I've tried to explain this many different ways - obviously unsuccessfully so......forget it.

I suppose folks won't understand what I'm saying......so I suggest.....don't buy it.

If you think people are simply buying AutoLaneChage for $10k or $8k or whatever price......then ok. fine.


----------



## SoFlaModel3

So I guess I threw this post out there and then kind of disappeared (sorry). Sure enough we have more Tweets...

First a head scratcher that led to people slamming Tesla for FSD Beta access. The beta fleet will double, tell us if you want it and your guess is as good as anyone's how you actually go about telling us.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1368017749851598850
Then the next day realizing the chaos we get this one. Your car will have a button to get FSD beta in 10 days (9 from this post). Ok... so does that mean we are not doubling beta but effectively going wide release with a request button? Does pressing the button give you a terms and conditions set to approve and then you suddenly have it? It seems each Tweet leads to more questions than answers.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1368329387733512193


----------



## Ksb466

Why wouldn’t they just use the old Early Access group? Anyone who paid for FSD likely wants it as we all know it’s beta for many iterations to come. Sounds like marketing. And the service and software folks have the hassle of managing a free for all signup process.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Ksb466 said:


> Why wouldn't they just use the old Early Access group? Anyone who paid for FSD likely wants it as we all know it's beta for many iterations to come. Sounds like marketing. And the service and software folks have the hassle of managing a free for all signup process.


The early access program is practically useless.


----------



## GDN

Garlan Garner said:


> The early access program is practically useless.


Simply because they didn't use it and they just made random selections of participants. Part of the problem too is that general people don't know how to honor NDA's. Video would show up online almost before the software was downloaded when new features came out. Now they've actually selected people that will share recordings of FSD. Tesla has a problem of finding a direction and sticking with it sometimes.


----------



## slasher016

There was another tweet posted somewhere to email [email protected]. I did that, we'll see if it makes any difference (and if the "button" actually comes out in 10 days.) I agree with a lot of the sentiment on this thread. I'm a die-hard tesla investor, owner, and supporter. But I would have upgraded to a new Model S by now if it wasn't for FSD which I paid for. They need to allow transfers or something since you lose that value when you sell the car.


----------



## vinnie97

FRC said:


> Yeah, same response as I got. Not quite sure what it means. Is my request valid, or do I need to be in the early access group to be included? I'm not really concerned...If this is for early access people only, that's fine; I'm glad they're finally getting something. I certainly can wait. But, true to form, Tesla's response is ambiguous and confusing. Am I in? Don't know. Do I qualify? Not sure.


Elon intimated early fsders like me would have access to eap. Still waiting, as useless as it may be...


----------



## vinnie97

Garlan Garner said:


> I am not saying the price isn't increasing. You are quoting prices of FSD increasing. Who cares? The question is: How much do you have to pay in TOTAL to get FSD.
> You quoted FSD being $3k in the beginning. You are absolutely correct. But you had to pay $8k to get FSD. I've tried to explain this many different ways - obviously unsuccessfully so......forget it.
> 
> I suppose folks won't understand what I'm saying......so I suggest.....don't buy it.
> 
> If you think people are simply buying AutoLaneChage for $10k or $8k or whatever price......then ok. fine.


I hear you loud and clear. The only concise way to assess the evolving fsd cost starting from late 2017 (at least) is to consider the price of both eap and fsd (since the definition of them both has been a moving target for mostly marketing reasons, and the former is a prerequisite for the latter).


----------



## vinnie97

Skagit Doug said:


> For some reason, Bigriver, I bought my second Model 3 in September 2020, after selling my first in October 2018. During that time, I was getting places by burning fossil fuel.
> 
> Somehow, I just don't feel I have any right to screw up the environment any more than I must.
> 
> It's a decision, of which I'll never live long enough to see the results.


Rant alert, and I suspect I'm in the minority here, but...
Living in the modern world comes with environmental damage (mining for rare earth materials is not without environmental threat for instance). Better to try to enjoy what's left of life and seek out ways to reduce your overall footprint (local) and become your own energy producer than fretting about carbon your ICE added to the atmosphere.


----------



## SoFlaModel3

slasher016 said:


> There was another tweet posted somewhere to email [email protected]. I did that, we'll see if it makes any difference (and if the "button" actually comes out in 10 days.) I agree with a lot of the sentiment on this thread. I'm a die-hard tesla investor, owner, and supporter. But I would have upgraded to a new Model S by now if it wasn't for FSD which I paid for. They need to allow transfers or something since you lose that value when you sell the car.


This is the Tweet you're talking about, but Elon's Tweet about "the button" came after, so I don't think anyone should email Early Access (of course I did right away anyway)


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1368249032783491079


----------



## DocScott

Elon and Tesla are certainly causing a lot of confusion right now, so no matter what they do a few days from now, some people are going to be mad.

Consider the second part of this tweet:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1368332350602420225
So we know you won't be able to get FSD Beta anywhere in regions that don't permit it, but other than that...is it just anyone who asks? So it's effectively an "opt in" wide release? If so, people who were promised early access at various points should be grumpy. If not, then people who read this tweet as promising opt in wide-access will be upset.

But then there's the next question: does it even require a purchase of FSD? I'd expect the answer to be yes...except that Tesla has given free trials of AP and/or EAP before. Will there be temporary access to the FSD beta for people who haven't bought FSD (hardware permitting, of course)? Some people are reading the tweets that way, I think, and they'll be disappointed if it's not the case. But if it is the case, I'd think a lot of people who have paid for FSD would have their heads explode.

Unclear messaging is going to lead to anger no matter what...


----------



## Bigriver

@DocScott, you have stated well my same questions.



DocScott said:


> So we know you won't be able to get FSD Beta anywhere in regions that don't permit it, but other than that...is it just anyone who asks?


That will be interesting to see. My initial thought is that no, the "button" will still be a request, not an automatic you get it. Kind of like the "Advanced" setting on Software right now does nothing to ensure that you will be on the early side of OTA updates. But Elon's wording did call it a "download BETA button." Note, one would need an OTA update for this option to show up on the car's screen.



DocScott said:


> does it even require a purchase of FSD? I'd expect the answer to be yes...except that Tesla has given free trials of AP and/or EAP before. Will there be temporary access to the FSD beta for people who haven't bought FSD (hardware permitting, of course)?


I think the answer HAS to be that it requires the purchase of FSD. Why in the world would you offer for someone who hasn't even bought it to be part of TESTING it? You might do that if you were having difficulty finding testers, but clearly not the case here. I do fully expect them to offer free trials of it once it is officially released, but I strongly hope they do not open the floodgates at this time. I don't think that onslaught of data would be helpful to Tesla, nor to the marketing to those who haven't yet bought in. Wait until it improves further.



vinnie97 said:


> Elon intimated early fsders like me would have access to eap. Still waiting, as useless as it may be...


I think now would be a good time for them to pick back up on that thread. If they are not opening this up to all who bought FSD, then hoping they will scoop from those who have been in line the longest.


----------



## Garlan Garner

I just requested to be a part of the FSD beta team. I'm in the Early Access Program.


----------



## DocScott

Bigriver said:


> I think the answer HAS to be that it requires the purchase of FSD. Why in the world would you offer for someone who hasn't even bought it to be part of TESTING it? You might do that if you were having difficulty finding testers, but clearly not the case here. I do fully expect them to offer free trials of it once it is officially released, but I strongly hope they do not open the floodgates at this time. I don't think that onslaught of data would be helpful to Tesla, nor to the marketing to those who haven't yet bought in. Wait until it improves further.


Because it's March, and Elon likes to juice end-of-quarter revenue. He could say "Yes, it's still in the early stages, but as it gets better the price will keep going up--it's an appreciating asset! In fact, the price for FSD will increase to $12k in April."

Or even "Thank you for helping us test FSD Beta! In gratitude we will make FSD available to you for $8k, as long as you place your order in March."

I wouldn't bet on either of those things happening...but I'm not sure I'd bet against them either!


----------



## Kizzy

M3OC Rules said:


> What if they change the base price of the car to account for adding part of the options into the base?


IIRC, the base price of the car went up $2K when basic AP was included. Are you suggesting a further bump for Enhanced Autopilot functionality?


----------



## M3OC Rules

Kizzy said:


> IIRC, the base price of the car went up $2K when basic AP was included. Are you suggesting a further bump for Enhanced Autopilot functionality?


I hope not. Some people really don't care about those features. But definitely would like to see EAP come back. Hate to see people not happy with their purchase and definitely hesitate to recommend it at $10k unless someone really knows what they are getting.


----------



## TrevP

vinnie97 said:


> Rant alert, and I suspect I'm in the minority here, but...
> Living in the modern world comes with environmental damage (mining for rare earth materials is not without environmental threat for instance). Better to try to enjoy what's left of life and seek out ways to reduce your overall footprint (local) and become your own energy producer than fretting about carbon your ICE added to the atmosphere.


Thanks, Vinnie, I had a friend whose daughter did a thesis on carbon-footprint of vehicles, and he told me my Model 3 was definitely not the best choice. Do you have a favorite site for such a comparison? Thanks!


----------



## FRC

Skagit Doug said:


> Thanks, Vinnie, I had a friend whose daughter did a thesis on carbon-footprint of vehicles, and he told me my Model 3 was definitely not the best choice. Do you have a favorite site for such a comparison? Thanks!


And what was the best choice?


----------



## TrevP

He was a friend from work and, like me, he apparently given up on working! Sorry


----------



## M3OC Rules

Skagit Doug said:


> Thanks, Vinnie, I had a friend whose daughter did a thesis on carbon-footprint of vehicles, and he told me my Model 3 was definitely not the best choice. Do you have a favorite site for such a comparison? Thanks!


Those studies are really hard because they become highly dependent on the lifetime of the car and what happens to the car at the end of its life. It seems pretty speculative at this point even if you don't have an agenda.


----------



## vinnie97

That's true, apples-for-apples comparisons are difficult to make. It *seems* to me the most severe environmental damage that comes from mining for rare earth materials is more localized whereas the effects of carbon emissions (whatever you're take on them, I won't travel down that rabbithole here) from driving an ICE vehicle is more dispersed on a global scale. You would also need to account for the carbon emissions from unearthing fossil fuels (as well as all the requisite worries about fracking and water supply destruction) versus the process of mining for the aforementioned metals to get a bigger picture. I'm personally for anything that would kill off monopolies (those that practically exist in tech and media today are modern warnings), and this includes energy monopolies (of course you don't want to inadvertently fuel new ones in the process ). This is my biggest draw for solar energy/battery backup in areas where it's practical.


----------



## TrevP

M3OC Rules said:


> Those studies are really hard because they become highly dependent on the lifetime of the car and what happens to the car at the end of its life. It seems pretty speculative at this point even if you don't have an agenda.


Well put, M30C, sudies must make endless presumptions, and they typically go unstated!


----------



## TrevP

SoFlaModel3 said:


> Is anyone like me, getting more and more disappointed (or perhaps discouraged) each time Elon Tweets about Full Self Drive. To clarify, yes I realize FSD is a suite and some of it is delivered so we are really talking about NoAP City Roads. The long overdue feature has been in limited public beta for quite some time. In my opinion there have been a series of missteps...
> 
> 
> raising the price by $2,000 when it reached beta. Why raise the price when everyday customers can't get the new functionality
> setting no actual/realistic timeline expectations -- some customers are going on 4 years having paid for FSD with no deliverable in sight
> not valuing FSD on trade in (you have to sell private to get value out of FSD) / at the same time telling customers FSD will appreciate the value of their vehicle
> allowing some of the public beta testers to share on social. This now more or less rubs it in the face of everyone who spent the money and has seen nothing for it.
> removing EAP as an option. Right now, AP is included and I would wager a guess that the vast majority want AP (Autosteer) + Lane Change. No one in their right mind would pay $10,000 for Lane Change though but you seemingly have no choice since you're forced to deal without having it or jump up to FSD.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1364480679019429888
> So I guess NoAP City Roads will arrive in 2022? I still love Tesla, but enough is enough already.


I'm certain everyone has seen this, but...

https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39647...g-beta-will-always-be-a-level-2-system-emails


----------



## slacker775

Skagit Doug said:


> I'm certain everyone has seen this, but...
> 
> https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39647...g-beta-will-always-be-a-level-2-system-emails


I've seen a lot of ink spilt over this but it's a big nothing-burger in my view. Tesla will have to require the steering wheel nag until they feel that FSD is fully ready to be autonomous and they go through the regulatory hoops. By keeping the nag, they avoid that and all that comes with it. FSD could be 'fully' autonomous and get you from your house to a parking spot at Disney World except for the nag which keeps it in L2 territory and avoids regulatory issues and still be 'feature' complete.


----------



## SoFlaModel3

Looks like we have our clarity now. "The Button" will trigger you to get FSD Beta so long as you agree to the terms and conditions. In other words wide release in the US is just a few days away (+ "Elon time").


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369235813079351297


----------



## iChris93

SoFlaModel3 said:


> Looks like we have our clarity now. "The Button" will trigger you to get FSD Beta so long as you agree to the terms and conditions. In other words wide release in the US is just a few days away (+ "Elon time").
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369235813079351297


I wish I could react with ⏳


----------



## Ksb466

Elon also tweeted today an implied delay to that original 10 day timeline to button/download. That pushes it out some, and if history serves, expect later than that. That’s ok. While he never hits self imposed deadlines they do generally get it done. Then begins the decades long process to true autonomy. But for now it’ll be cool to play with this.
“Build 8.3 of FSD should be done QA testing by end of next week, so that’s roughly when download button should show up”.


----------



## TrevP

iChris93 said:


> I wish I could react with ⏳


Your wish is my command...


----------



## Bigriver

Hey moderators, we have very active discussions on the expansion of FSD beta in multiple threads and I’m not smart enough to keep track of what is going on in each. Any chance we could get pertinent posts pulled into a single thread, something like “March 2021 FSD Beta Wide(r) Release”?


----------



## TrevP

slacker775 said:


> I've seen a lot of ink spilt over this but it's a big nothing-burger in my view. Tesla will have to require the steering wheel nag until they feel that FSD is fully ready to be autonomous and they go through the regulatory hoops. By keeping the nag, they avoid that and all that comes with it. FSD could be 'fully' autonomous and get you from your house to a parking spot at Disney World except for the nag which keeps it in L2 territory and avoids regulatory issues and still be 'feature' complete.


You know, slacker777, manufacturers no longer claim to have "leather seats," they claim "leather seating surfaces." That's because of a class action suit many years ago, against manufacturers falsely claiming their cars featured "leather seats," when they did not.

If Elon's lies about every single technical feature are a nothing-burger, would a court decision went against Elon, change your mind, or would you maintin your fan-boy demeanor?

Please, someone - ANYONE - tell me exactly ONE TECHNICAL CLAIM Elon has made about the product line that has been true. It started with his lies about vehicles' ranges, and gets more LUDICROUS from there!

Please, someone provide factual evidence so I can climb on the wagon!


----------



## slacker775

Skagit Doug said:


> You know, slacker777, manufacturers no longer claim to have "leather seats," they claim "leather seating surfaces." That's because of a class action suit many years ago, against manufacturers falsely claiming their cars featured "leather seats," when they did not.
> 
> If Elon's lies about every single technical feature are a nothing-burger, would a court decision went against Elon, change your mind, or would you maintin your fan-boy demeanor?
> 
> Please, someone - ANYONE - tell me exactly ONE TECHNICAL CLAIM Elon has made about the product line that has been true. It started with his lies about vehicles' ranges, and gets more LUDICROUS from there!
> 
> Please, someone provide factual evidence so I can climb on the wagon!


This isn't from Elon's mouth, it's from Tesla's attorneys. The various press articles are framing it as 'Tesla admits it will only ever be L2 autonomy' which if you read the back and forth is very much not what they say in any shape or form. You are free to interpret it however you like.


----------



## TrevP

slacker775 said:


> This isn't from Elon's mouth, it's from Tesla's attorneys. The various press articles are framing it as 'Tesla admits it will only ever be L2 autonomy' which if you read the back and forth is very much not what they say in any shape or form. You are free to interpret it however you like.


"Full self-driving" isn't colloquial, is has inherent meaning. And, attornies aren't at liberty to use the poop that comes out of the Elon's mouth. The FTC limited his ability to make BS statements regarding Tesla. Perhaps the court needs to do the same.


----------



## slacker775

Really, it only has meaning as defined by the buying community as to what it specifically means based on the words used. Just like ‘autopilot’ used with airplanes. And the FTC has had nothing to do with Elon’s tweets. You are thinking of the SEC. You seem to have a rather harsh view of Tesla based on your statements. Do you own a Tesla or do you just like to complain about Elon?


----------



## TrevP

slacker775 said:


> Really, it only has meaning as defined by the buying community as to what it specifically means based on the words used. Just like 'autopilot' used with airplanes. And the FTC has had nothing to do with Elon's tweets. You are thinking of the SEC. You seem to have a rather harsh view of Tesla based on your statements. Do you own a Tesla or do you just like to complain about Elon?


I've owned two Model 3s, and Elon was barred by the FTC from being CEO of Tesla.

So, tell me everything else yiu know about Elon and the company.

https://www.sec.gov/news/press-rele...xchange Commission,SEC against him last week.


----------



## slacker775

Skagit Doug said:


> I've owned two Model 3s, and Elon was barred by the FTC from being CEO of Tesla.
> 
> So, tell me everything else yiu know about Elon and the company.
> 
> https://www.sec.gov/news/press-rele...xchange Commission,SEC against him last week.


SEC != FTC but whatever. Did you purchase FSD any feel burned by the slower than hoped for rollout? Like everyone, I was hoping Elon's optimistic timelines would come to fruition but also realize that the problem Tesla is trying to solve us not easy. In fact no company has 'solved' it just yet. The closest only operates in specific areas and typically only under certain ideal conditions. Without a doubt Tesla has some problematic actions on their side, such as not counting FSD purchase upon trade-in and the FSD fire sale of March 2019 where they just didn't do right by buyers.


----------



## TrevP

slacker775 said:


> SEC != FTC but whatever. Did you purchase FSD any feel burned by the slower than hoped for rollout? Like everyone, I was hoping Elon's optimistic timelines would come to fruition but also realize that the problem Tesla is trying to solve us not easy. In fact no company has 'solved' it just yet. The closest only operates in specific areas and typically only under certain ideal conditions. Without a doubt Tesla has some problematic actions on their side, such as not counting FSD purchase upon trade-in and the FSD fire sale of March 2019 where they just didn't do right by buyers.


Thanks for sorting me out in SRC vs FTC.

I bought my first one in July of 2018, with what I think was called Autipiot, at time, but also had Early-Access Program, so had what I believe could be called a very early iteration of FSD. (Let me know if I'm sadly mistaken, thanks.)

The second one does not have Autopilot and, hence, not FSD.

I grabbed the second one in a hurry, because they're tough to find in my locale. He told me I could add Autopilot for $3,000 so I figured I'd just do that, only to discover today's Autopilot as nothing but some help with steering and braking. Which exemplifies another problem I have with Elon.....

You and I have differences because you think everyone knows what FSD means, so you clearly will think it's my fault for not understanding Elon had changed the definition of Autopilot. An uppercase word indicates it's a proper noun. Or does Elon get to change the definition of a proper noun, too?


----------



## Long Ranger

Skagit Doug said:


> Thanks, Vinnie, I had a friend whose daughter did a thesis on carbon-footprint of vehicles, and he told me my Model 3 was definitely not the best choice. Do you have a favorite site for such a comparison? Thanks!


This one from MIT is pretty good.
https://carboncounter.com/You can tweak many assumptions for comparison. 
I suppose you can argue that the Model 3 is not THE best choice, but it's certainly one of the best choices.


----------



## garsh

urquattro83 said:


> ...you clearly will think it's my fault for not understanding Elon had changed the definition of Autopilot.


Please show us the "before" and "after" definitions of autopilot. And no, I don't mean what you *thought* the definitions were - I want to see what Tesla actually advertised. Back up your claim that they _changed_ the definition of autopilot.


----------



## TrevP

Long Ranger said:


> This one from MIT is pretty good.
> https://carboncounter.com/You can tweak many assumptions for comparison.
> I suppose you can argue that the Model 3 is not THE best choice, but it's certainly one of the best choices.


Yjsnks for posting this, Long Ranger!


----------



## TrevP

urquattro83 said:


> Yjsnks for posting this, Long Ranger!


I don't have the definitions, garsh. Was Autopilot always just a little assistance with steering and brawling to avoid running into things. It did it slow me to set a destination and, kind-of, take me there?


----------



## garsh

urquattro83 said:


> I don't have the definitions, garsh.


Then why are you accusing Elon of changing the definition of Autopilot?


----------



## iChris93

urquattro83 said:


> but also had Early-Access Program, so had what I believe could be called a very early iteration of FSD. (Let me know if I'm sadly mistaken, thanks.)


You are sadly mistaken. Are you thinking of Enhanced Autopilot?


----------



## Madmolecule

they have never defined any of the advanced features. They’ve only change the names for convenience. They’ve only named it so they have a product to sell. Are you guys looking for a tweet? Most companies would put out specifications on their product or their future products that they intend to sell one day but in this case they’ve actually sold it. Basically so far is just different names for cruise control. Oh, also traffic cone recognition. The only logic for not defining it is so that we can’t hold them to it, or they don’t know what the hell it is and what it is capable of. But instead of defining it and having advertising detailing what the product is capable of and what is not capable of they instead have gone the route of incentivizing shills with future promises. Tesla does a lot of great things but I’m tired of people defending the terrible things that they do. Forgetting about the early adopters it’s very sad. Making a revolutionary car that is honestly the best vehicle available does not excuse the vaporware and trying to convince people the car is an investment and not an rapidly depreciating asset like 99% of all vehicles.

Summon is still a total joke on the latest version. It is embarrassing, but I guess it works as specified. What is it supposed to do, how is it supposed to work? If it’s working as specified who the hell would want this? Walk over and drive the car instead of being embarrassed and frustrated.

Elon Electrify Cuba!!


----------



## M3OC Rules

slacker775 said:


> I've seen a lot of ink spilt over this but it's a big nothing-burger in my view. Tesla will have to require the steering wheel nag until they feel that FSD is fully ready to be autonomous and they go through the regulatory hoops. By keeping the nag, they avoid that and all that comes with it. FSD could be 'fully' autonomous and get you from your house to a parking spot at Disney World except for the nag which keeps it in L2 territory and avoids regulatory issues and still be 'feature' complete.


Ya. They are just saying they won't pull a fast one and one day out of the blue say its level 5 and remove the nag. Some people love to hate on Tesla and I'm sure it gets lots of clicks. There is very little negative to being wrong and lots of positive.

I don't understand why people keep saying there are semantics issues. The problem isn't that people don't understand what full self driving means. The problem is that is isn't done. There is no indication to me that what Tesla wants to deliver and what people are expecting are anything different. The problem is they haven't delivered it. This thread wouldn't exist if they delivered it. It comes down to these issues which I think they do deserve criticism on:

1. Have they been misleading on the timing?
2. Have they been misleading on their progress?
3. Have they been misleading on the technical, regulatory, and schedule risk?
4. Should they bundle driver assist features with it? (One might argue it's confusing to bundle level 2 features with a level 5 but they do say "Autopilot features today, and full self driving capabilities in the future.")


----------



## Garlan Garner

M3OC Rules said:


> Ya. They are just saying they won't pull a fast one and one day out of the blue say its level 5 and remove the nag. Some people love to hate on Tesla and I'm sure it gets lots of clicks. There is very little negative to being wrong and lots of positive.
> 
> I don't understand why people keep saying there are semantics issues. The problem isn't that people don't understand what full self driving means. The problem is that is isn't done. There is no indication to me that what Tesla wants to deliver and what people are expecting are anything different. The problem is they haven't delivered it. This thread wouldn't exist if they delivered it. It comes down to these issues which I think they do deserve criticism on:
> 
> 1. Have they been misleading on the timing?
> 2. Have they been misleading on their progress?
> 3. Have they been misleading on the technical, regulatory, and schedule risk?
> 4. Should they bundle driver assist features with it? (One might argue it's confusing to bundle level 2 features with a level 5 but they do say "Autopilot features today, and full self driving capabilities in the future.")


The problem is that people don't know what "beta" means.


----------



## iChris93

Garlan Garner said:


> The problem is that people don't know what "beta" means.


How long can something be in beta when there is no evidence of improvement?


----------



## slacker775

iChris93 said:


> How long can something be in beta when there is no evidence of improvement?


While the pace of development certainly is nowhere how anybody wants to see it, there is evidence of improvement with NOA on city streets and the upcoming beta of the beta that does 'more stuff'.


----------



## Garlan Garner

iChris93 said:


> How long can something be in beta when there is no evidence of improvement?


No evidence?

What timeframe are you looking at?

I purchased my vehicle in 2018 with FSD beta. Today - its much improved ( visually and functionally ).


----------



## iChris93

slacker775 said:


> While the pace of development certainly is nowhere how anybody wants to see it, there is evidence of improvement with NOA on city streets and the upcoming beta of the beta that does 'more stuff'.





Garlan Garner said:


> No evidence?
> 
> What timeframe are you looking at?
> 
> I purchased my vehicle in 2018 with FSD beta. Today - its much improved ( visually and functionally ).


I'm not specifically talking about FSD beta. I am talking about the other "beta" features.


----------



## Needsdecaf

urquattro83 said:


> Thanks, Vinnie, I had a friend whose daughter did a thesis on carbon-footprint of vehicles, and he told me my Model 3 was definitely not the best choice. Do you have a favorite site for such a comparison? Thanks!


Jason Fenske from Engineering Explained released a great video today comparing the lifetime CO2 emissions of a Y vs. a Rav 4 Prime.


----------



## Needsdecaf

slacker775 said:


> This isn't from Elon's mouth, it's from Tesla's attorneys. The various press articles are framing it as 'Tesla admits it will only ever be L2 autonomy' which if you read the back and forth is very much not what they say in any shape or form. You are free to interpret it however you like.


Wow, downloaded all 200 plus pages. Need to read through carefully.


----------



## Needsdecaf

M3OC Rules said:


> I don't understand why people keep saying there are semantics issues. The problem isn't that people don't understand what full self driving means. The problem is that is isn't done. There is no indication to me that what Tesla wants to deliver and what people are expecting are anything different. The problem is they haven't delivered it. This thread wouldn't exist if they delivered it. It comes down to these issues which I think they do deserve criticism on:
> 
> 1. Have they been misleading on the timing?
> 2. Have they been misleading on their progress?
> 3. Have they been misleading on the technical, regulatory, and schedule risk?
> 4. Should they bundle driver assist features with it? (One might argue it's confusing to bundle level 2 features with a level 5 but they do say "Autopilot features today, and full self driving capabilities in the future.")


Elon has constantly been making claims that have not come true. He has been consistently clouding the issue by making statements that are at odds with the published specifications and the owner's manual.

I've posted this in another thread, but take a look at some of these quotes. Look at the terms used.

Complete autonomy - Implies at least a L3 system, but really a L4 system.

Be able to fall asleep in a Tesla - Implies at least a L4 system, as for a L3 system the user in the vehicle is required to be the fallback user to complete the DDT in case of a failure of the ADS.

self-driving - Implies the vehicle will drive itself. I would suppose Full Self Driving would imply Full (in all situations) Self (the car not the operator does the work) and Driving (completing the DDT). At this point in time, I think everyone has come to realize there is no FULL in FSD. But that still doesn't mean it's a bit of a bait and switch. In order for Full and Self to be accurate, L4 at a minimum would be required.

Robotaxi - implies that the car is capable of operating as a taxi without any human intervention. Would require L4 at the least.

People will not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window - would require L3 at a minimum.

Very Close to Level 5 Autonomy - well, that's pretty self-explanatory.

So while I 100% agree that there is a lack of comprehensive understanding of the SAE taxonomical definitions of Autonomous Driving (I have read the entirety of the J3016 paper and have a fairly decent grasp of what the terms mean), I also would postulate there is ample evidence, in black and white, that Elon has at the very least confused the public as to Tesla's ability or goals and at worst outright lied.



Needsdecaf said:


> *December 2015:* "We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have *complete autonomy* in approximately two years."
> 
> _Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years_
> 
> _Elon Musk on Twitter_
> 
> *June 2016:* "I _really consider autonomous driving a solved problem,_ I think we are less than two years away from *complete autonomy*, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year," Musk said.
> 
> _Two years until self-driving cars are on the road - is Elon Musk right?_
> 
> *March 2017:* "I think that [*you will be able to fall asleep in a tesla]* is about two years" -
> 
> _Transcript of "The future we're building -- and boring"_
> 
> *March 2018:* "I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] *self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving* and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person."
> 
> SXSW 2018
> 
> *Nov 15, 2018:* "Probably technically be *able to [self deliver Teslas to customers doors*] in about a year then its up to the regulators"
> 
> Elon Musk on Twitter
> 
> *Jan 30 2019:* "We need to be at 99.9999..% We need to be extremely reliable. When do we think it is safe for FSD, probably towards the end of this year then its up to the regulators when they will decide to approve that."
> 
> Tesla Q4 Earnings Call
> 
> *Feb 19 2019:* "We will be feature complete full self driving this year. *The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. *I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark. It will be essentially safe to fall asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year"
> 
> On the Road to Full Autonomy With Elon Musk - FYI Podcast
> 
> *April 12th 2019:* "I think it will require detecting hands on wheel for at least six months.... I think this was all really going to be swept, I mean, the system is improving so much, so fast, that this is going to be a moot point very soon. No, in fact, *I think it will become very, very quickly, maybe and towards the end this year, but I say, I'd be shocked if not next year, at the latest that having the person, having human intervene* will decrease safety. DECREASE! (in response to human supervision and adding driver monitoring system)"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *April 22nd 2019:* "We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that *we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window* sometime probably around the second quarter of next year."
> 
> *April 22nd 2019:* "We expect to have the first *operating robot taxi* next year with no one in them! One million robot taxis!"
> "I feel very confident predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla next year,"
> "Level 5 autonomy with no geofence"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *May 9th 2019:* "We could have gamed an *LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to* do it too"
> 
> *April 12th 2020:* How long for the first robotaxi release/ deployment? 2023?
> "Functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1249210220200550405
> *April 29th 2020:* "we could see *robotaxis* in operation with the network fleet next year, not in all markets but in some."
> 
> *July 08, 2020:* "I'm extremely confident that level five or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think, will happen very quickly, *I think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to level five autonomy*. I think-I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year, There are no fundamental challenges remaining. There are many small problems. And then there's the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Dec 1, 2020:* "I am extremely confident of achieving *full autonomy* and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year."
> Axel Springer Award


----------



## SoFlaModel3

Here is a thread on the evolution of "FSD". I think this does a great job documenting everything. Spoiler alert -- FSD is everything Tesla said it was going to be from day 1. They were late on dates obviously, but the feature set is the feature set. The biggest issue in my opinion is that the name "Full Self Drive" is not an accurate depiction of what it is, but again the documented feature set was always consistent. Things that strayed from printed material (Elon's Tweets about Robotaxi notwithstanding).


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420757726552066

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420761803415558

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420765012058113

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420768409436167

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420771781664772

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420773132300292

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420773992112130

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420776387018760

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420777590820866

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420778568093696

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420779549507591

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420780581363719

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420781441212422

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420784586854406

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420788206628865

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420789372616708

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420790224027650

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420791281029127

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420792207925253

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420843026153480

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420877289390082

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420910852243456

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1369420912102170630


----------



## Needsdecaf

But therein lies the problem. You say "Elon's tweets about robotaxis notwithstanding". And I don't think you can simply ignore that just because the documentation has been clear. Like it or not, Elon IS the face of Tesla, and his words (spoken or tweeted) carry weight. Otherwise, why would so many people line up for the investor call following every quarterly release? Wouldn't it be easier to simply just read the Forward Looking Statement and the 10-K? There would be no need for Q&A session with Elon and the other execs. 

But there is because it's important. And people in the public at large rely on what Elon has said, far more so than what's printed in the manual or on the website. So yes, FSD features as they can be purchased are clearly defined. And, of course, caveat emptor. However when the CEO, who regularly dictates the direction of the company, says "you'll be able to fall asleep in your moving Tesla in about 2 years" in March of 2017, you don't realistically think that people are going to take that at face value?


----------



## FRC

SoFlaModel3 said:


> FSD is everything Tesla said it was going to be from day 1.


Gotta take a bit of exception, @SoFlaModel3. In the features originally described is the statement- "The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver's seat". I wouldn't consider the hands on wheel nag to be "no action required".


----------



## SoFlaModel3

Needsdecaf said:


> But therein lies the problem. You say "Elon's tweets about robotaxis notwithstanding". And I don't think you can simply ignore that just because the documentation has been clear. Like it or not, Elon IS the face of Tesla, and his words (spoken or tweeted) carry weight. Otherwise, why would so many people line up for the investor call following every quarterly release? Wouldn't it be easier to simply just read the Forward Looking Statement and the 10-K? There would be no need for Q&A session with Elon and the other execs.
> 
> But there is because it's important. And people in the public at large rely on what Elon has said, far more so than what's printed in the manual or on the website. So yes, FSD features as they can be purchased are clearly defined. And, of course, caveat emptor. However when the CEO, who regularly dictates the direction of the company, says "you'll be able to fall asleep in your moving Tesla in about 2 years" in March of 2017, you don't realistically think that people are going to take that at face value?


Sorry, yes, absolutely agree. That's why I started this thread. Access to him on Twitter is a blessing and a curse. You are absolutely right though, just because their documentation has been consistent doesn't mean he hasn't also promised things on social (seen by millions) that they haven't or won't be able to deliver on and that's frustrating and disappointing.



FRC said:


> Gotta take a bit of exception, @SoFlaModel3. In the features originally described is the statement- "The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver's seat". I wouldn't consider the hands on wheel nag to be "no action required".


I hear you on that one. Challenge there will be on the regulations side probably more than the feature set itself. That said "no" is a strong and clear word and it's ultimately false. The current Teslas with the current hardware will never be in a position to meet "no action required". I think they'll keep getting better and better, but you're never taking a nap in a Hardware 3 car in my opinion just like you're never turning your Hardware 3 car into a Robotaxi (also my opinion).


----------



## M3OC Rules

SoFlaModel3 said:


> Here is a thread on the evolution of "FSD". I think this does a great job documenting everything. Spoiler alert -- FSD is everything Tesla said it was going to be from day 1. They were late on dates obviously, but the feature set is the feature set. The biggest issue in my opinion is that the name "Full Self Drive" is not an accurate depiction of what it is, but again the documented feature set was always consistent. Things that strayed from printed material (Elon's Tweets about Robotaxi notwithstanding).


Great find. The goal hasn't changed and the FSD name hasn't either. What would be confusing is if they changed the name. 
I think I get what you're saying and I agree people should focus on what you get now versus what may or may not get delivered in the future. But I still argue the name is accurate and that you are buying level 5. You just don't know when, if ever, it will be delivered.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Garlan Garner said:


> The problem is that people don't know what "beta" means.


I think people know its not done. They don't know how close it is to being finished though. The great part about Level 5 is its binary. You don't get the rewards until you get 100% there and someone else decides.


----------



## M3OC Rules

SoFlaModel3 said:


> The current Teslas with the current hardware will never be in a position to meet "no action required". I think they'll keep getting better and better, but you're never taking a nap in a Hardware 3 car in my opinion just like you're never turning your Hardware 3 car into a Robotaxi (also my opinion).


Did you believe it would when you got your car? What changed your opinion?


----------



## DocScott

M3OC Rules said:


> Did you believe it would when you got your car? What changed your opinion?


I believed when I got my car that it could someday make it to L5.

Several factors began to change my opinion but what sealed it was when sensors would go out due to snow, ice, mud, etc. and I'd lose AP. It just didn't seem like they'd ever be able to iterate out of that and get me to L5 for my current car.

I still think _maybe_ some day I'll be able to tape a nap in it when it drives down the interstate in decent weather (L4, I guess). I have my doubts about that, but I'm not ruling it out.


----------



## M3OC Rules

DocScott said:


> I believed when I got my car that it could someday make it to L5.
> 
> Several factors began to change my opinion but what sealed it was when sensors would go out due to snow, ice, mud, etc. and I'd lose AP. It just didn't seem like they'd ever be able to iterate out of that and get me to L5 for my current car.
> 
> I still think _maybe_ somer day I'll be able to tape a nap in it when it drives down the interstate in decent weather (L4, I guess). I have my doubts about that, but I'm not ruling it out.


Ya. Sounds reasonable. It will be interesting if FSD Beta changes people's predictions after they get it.


----------



## Garlan Garner

DocScott said:


> I believed when I got my car that it could someday make it to L5.
> 
> Several factors began to change my opinion but what sealed it was when sensors would go out due to snow, ice, mud, etc. and I'd lose AP. It just didn't seem like they'd ever be able to iterate out of that and get me to L5 for my current car.
> 
> I still think _maybe_ somer day I'll be able to tape a nap in it when it drives down the interstate in decent weather (L4, I guess). I have my doubts about that, but I'm not ruling it out.


That brings up a question I have always had.

Lets imagine that Tesla has achieved L5 autonomy. Does that mean that when 40 feet of snow falls on the car and the road...…that it is no longer L5?

----------------------------------------

Another question: What do you compare FSD to in order to say that its L5?

Does L5 simply have to be better than the worst driver on the road?

Some people shouldn't even have a license ( like my cousin ) , but the DMV keeps giving them one as they keep passing the tests. If these guys keep getting licenses ….then why does L5 have to be so fantastic?


----------



## FRC

it's sounds like you're advocating that L5 need only be as good as the worst driver on the road?


----------



## slacker775

FRC said:


> it's sounds like you're advocating that L5 need only be as good as the worst driver on the road?


I think more on the lines of perfection is the enemy of good enough. We do allow an amazing amount of horrible drivers on the road. Getting to L5, even if it isn't 100.000% perfect in every single possible situation and getting many of these terrible drivers away from the wheel is a pretty basic civic responsibility.


----------



## DocScott

FRC said:


> it's sounds like you're advocating that L5 need only be as good as the worst driver on the road?


That's probably not good enough. But it also probably doesn't need to be better than the best driver on the road in all circumstances.

I think good drivers are pretty much always going to be better at situations that require a lot of knowledge about things outside the usual driving experience, such as understanding what's happening when an airplane is trying to make an emergency landing on your stretch of highway, or if an ostrich which escaped from the zoo is running around on the highway, or if a deranged criminal on an overpass is shooting at cars as they drive underneath. Just because a self-driving car isn't great in those situations doesn't mean it couldn't be L5.

But I do think an L5 car shouldn't need "rescuing" any more often than a typical human driver would. That means it doesn't need to be able to drive through two feet of snow...but it should be able to handle a little bit of slushy spray from the road. My robotic vacuum cleaner is really only L3, because it occasionally gets itself in to a situation where it can't figure out how to get out of it, and needs help. Any competent human with a vacuum, or even a human with a remote control which controlled the vacuum, could probably get out of the situation, but as far as the robot is concerned it's done until it gets help. An L5 vacuum cleaner, on the other hand, should be able to operate on its own consistently anywhere that people usually vacuum. It doesn't mean it has to be able to successfully navigate through a forest, though!


----------



## Long Ranger

Garlan Garner said:


> Lets imagine that Tesla has achieved L5 autonomy. Does that mean that when 40 feet of snow falls on the car and the road...…that it is no longer L5?


No, I think that case is actually pretty clear. It just needs to handle "all driver-manageable road conditions within its region of the world" per SAE J3016 description of Level 5:

"Unconditional/not ODD-specific" means that the ADS can operate the vehicle under all driver-manageable road conditions within its region of the world. This means, for example, that there are no design-based weather, time-of-day, or geographical restrictions on where and when the ADS can operate the vehicle. However, there may be conditions not manageable by a driver in which the ADS would also be unable to complete a given trip (e.g., white-out snow storm, flooded roads, glare ice, etc.) until or unless the adverse conditions clear. At the onset of such unmanageable conditions the ADS would perform the DDT fallback to achieve a minimal risk condition (e.g., by pulling over to the side of the road and waiting for the conditions to change).​https://www.sae.org/standards/content/j3016_201806/​


Garlan Garner said:


> Does L5 simply have to be better than the worst driver on the road?


Yeah, I think that's one of many gray areas. I don't think SAE addresses the human driver's skill level when they talk about "driver-manageable road conditions".


----------



## Garlan Garner

Long Ranger said:


> No, I think that case is actually pretty clear. It just needs to handle "all driver-manageable road conditions within its region of the world" per SAE J3016 description of Level 5:
> 
> "Unconditional/not ODD-specific" means that the ADS can operate the vehicle under all driver-manageable road conditions within its region of the world. This means, for example, that there are no design-based weather, time-of-day, or geographical restrictions on where and when the ADS can operate the vehicle. However, there may be conditions not manageable by a driver in which the ADS would also be unable to complete a given trip (e.g., white-out snow storm, flooded roads, glare ice, etc.) until or unless the adverse conditions clear. At the onset of such unmanageable conditions the ADS would perform the DDT fallback to achieve a minimal risk condition (e.g., by pulling over to the side of the road and waiting for the conditions to change).​https://www.sae.org/standards/content/j3016_201806/​
> Yeah, I think that's one of many gray areas. I don't think SAE addresses the human driver's skill level when they talk about "driver-manageable road conditions".


I don't think its fair that L5 has to be better than any accepted human driver.

My 81 year old aunt can't do some of the things listed in SAE J3016 description of Level 5 - And they gave her a license.

For example: Have any of you seen the drivers education test book? Its extremely simple and does not require a person to be able to drive in all conditions. But L5 does. That's stupid.


----------



## Kimmo57

I would not like the requirements to be only what an 81 year old can do.


----------



## slacker775

As I’ve found, everybody thinks that they are the best driver on the road and the reality is that every single driver misses things or has attention lapses or doesn’t handle every situation in the most perfect manner. Trying to hold L5 to that standard is absurd. The focus should be on getting people out from behind the wheel in any manner possible, as soon as possible. I know that wouldn’t be a popular sentiment since there is a long history of romancing the freedom of the open roads and all that (pushed by the major auto manufacturers many years ago to push sales...) but never worry, while autonomy may come fairly soon, there will still be ability to drive individually for some time now.


----------



## garsh

It just has to be better on average than human drivers on average.

As long as accident statistics don't increase compared to human drivers, it will be worthwhile.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Regulators get to decide and as of now they haven't defined it. They don't want to define something that drives the developers to target. Also its hard for all the reasons being brought up here.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Garlan Garner said:


> That brings up a question I have always had.
> 
> Lets imagine that Tesla has achieved L5 autonomy. Does that mean that when 40 feet of snow falls on the car and the road...…that it is no longer L5?
> 
> ----------------------------------------
> 
> Another question: What do you compare FSD to in order to say that its L5?
> 
> Does L5 simply have to be better than the worst driver on the road?
> 
> Some people shouldn't even have a license ( like my cousin ) , but the DMV keeps giving them one as they keep passing the tests. If these guys keep getting licenses ….then why does L5 have to be so fantastic?


Edited: I see Long Ranger answered these questions.

1. No, it is still L5. The key phrase that the SAE uses is "driver manageable". Specifically the text reads "....the ADS can operate the vehicle under all driver-manageable road conditions within its region of the world. This means, for example, that there are no designe-based weather, time of day, or geographical restrictions on where and when the ADS can operate the vehicle. However there may be conditions not manageable by a driver in which the ADS would also be unable to complet a given trip (e.g., white-out snow storm, flooded roads, glare ice, etc.)......"

2. The SAE text gives no definition of levels of driving skill. It only states that the "ADS of the entire DDT and DDT fallback without any expectation that a user will respond a request to intervene". DDT is definited as "Dynamic Driving Task. All of the real time operational and tactcial functions required to operate a vehicle in on-road traffic, excluding the strategic functions such as trip scheduling........and including without limitation:

Lateral motion...
Longitudinal motion...
Monitoring the driving environment via object and event detection, recognition, classification, and response preparation (operation and tactical):
Object and Event response execution (operational and tactical)
Maneuver planning (tactical); and
Enhancing conspicuity via lighting, signaling and gesturing, etc. (tactical)."

There are no classifications on how smoothly this is accomplished. It just has to do it, basically without crashing. I think the expectation is that it does it without causing undue issues like driving 20 MPH slower than the posted limit. I gather this from further defintions where the terms like "reasonable separation" are used. But this is not clearly defined.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Garlan Garner said:


> I don't think its fair that L5 has to be better than any accepted human driver.
> 
> My 81 year old aunt can't do some of the things listed in SAE J3016 description of Level 5 - And they gave her a license.
> 
> For example: Have any of you seen the drivers education test book? Its extremely simple and does not require a person to be able to drive in all conditions. But L5 does. That's stupid.
> 
> View attachment 37450


I'm not saying this to be glib. So please take this with the utmost sincerity (I know that you and I don't always agree, LOL).

You cannot use just this chart to understand SAE levels. In fact, after having read the entire 35 page J3016 document on Autonomous Driving Taxonomy, I would say this chart is actually kind of misleading when viewed out of context of the larger document. You really need to read the definitions to get the true understanding of what the SAE is trying to describe in this chart. As Long Ranger and I both quoted the text, "all conditions" means "all driver managble" conditions. They don't expect the system to drive through conditions a human couldn't.

As for your 81 year old aunt, well, she probably shouldn't have a license if she can't drive through those conditions. Or, less harshly, she shouldn't be out in those conditions. It's almost like she becomes a L3 system. She has limitations and needs to operate within those limitations. But that doesn't mean all the other drivers on the road shouldn't be out because they are capable of handling it.

I hope that makes sense.


----------



## Bigriver

Kimmo57 said:


> I would not like the requirements to be only what an 81 year old can do.


I was behind a really bad driver for a long time yesterday. He was an elderly gentleman who was weaving terribly. Thankfully he always weaved away from passing vehicles. I followed (well behind) him until he got off at a rest stop. In retrospect I probably should have called 911. If he's the standard, Tesla's autopilot has already exceeded his capabilities.


Needsdecaf said:


> Or, less harshly, she shouldn't be out in those conditions. It's almost like she becomes a L3 system. She has limitations and needs to operate within those limitations.


😊


----------



## Needsdecaf

slacker775 said:


> As I've found, everybody thinks that they are the best driver on the road and the reality is that every single driver misses things or has attention lapses or doesn't handle every situation in the most perfect manner. Trying to hold L5 to that standard is absurd. The focus should be on getting people out from behind the wheel in any manner possible, as soon as possible. I know that wouldn't be a popular sentiment since there is a long history of romancing the freedom of the open roads and all that (pushed by the major auto manufacturers many years ago to push sales...) but never worry, while autonomy may come fairly soon, there will still be ability to drive individually for some time now.


I 100% disagree with this.

We are in some kind of mad rush to push people out from behind the wheel and replace with systems that, as FSD Beta has clearly shown, have trouble handling edge cases. When in reality, humans CAN handle most of these driving duties with very minimal involvement if they just PAY ATTENTION. We're literally creating a distracted environment for the driver (hey look at me 15" touch screen, text messages, streaming audio, in-car cell phone communication) and then saying "humans can't drive very well, look how many accidents they get into". This is not a logical conclusion! Humans can drive very well when they are actually trying to drive, and are not distracted.

Now you look at computers. They drive very, very well when they're inside the parameters they are programmed to be. Because they don't stop paying attention. They don't get bored, they don't text their wife, they aren't scrolling through instagram on their phone or looking at TicTock videos of random teens shaking their booty. That's good. But there are many, many cases where the computers aren't programmed to figure out what to do. So then they punt control back to someone who now has an excuse to not be paying attention?

This is literally the most complicated solution to a problem that is self-caused. You want to stop distracted driving? Enforce hand held cell phone usage more strictly. Restrict what content manufacturers can display on those screens. Mandate more physical controls for dedicated features (this is why you cannot have a hazard button be on a touch screen, it's regulated). Etc. There are many, many other ways. But they're not popular, not sexy, not as desirable. So people say "only the robots can save us". Which is just not true.

I'm sorry that you find driving to be distasteful. I'm glad that in the future, you will have an autonomous way to not have to drive. I think it will be great for people who don't want to drive (i.e. can't be bothered to pay attention) or have lost their cognitive abilities to safely drive. It is a wonderful thing.

But I don't agree at all that it's going to all of a sudden drop accident rates to nothing.


----------



## Needsdecaf

M3OC Rules said:


> Regulators get to decide and as of now they haven't defined it. They don't want to define something that drives the developers to target. Also its hard for all the reasons being brought up here.


Regulators aren't defining anything. The SAE has.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Needsdecaf said:


> Regulators aren't defining anything. The SAE has.


Each country will decide on its own whether its allowed just like it is now with other driver assist features.

Edit: In the US, the NHTSA is using SAE definitions of the levels but they are deciding what is allowed and defining their own framework. "The framework of principles would objectively define, assess, and manage the safety of ADS, while ensuring the flexibility to enable further innovation."
https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/public-comment-automated-driving-system-safety-principles


----------



## Needsdecaf

M3OC Rules said:


> Each country will decide on its own whether its allowed just like it is now with other driver assist features.


Well yes, I agree on that. You said regulators get to define, and I thought you were referring to defining the different levels.


----------



## SoFlaModel3

M3OC Rules said:


> Did you believe it would when you got your car? What changed your opinion?


Never for 1 second did I believe my car would be able to be a robotaxi. It never concerned me as I would never send my personal car into the fleet. If it happens, I'll be pleasantly surprised. I think more hardware is needed though and when Robotaxi becomes a thing there will be a clear divide on which cars are eligible and my sense is that that car isn't on the road yet. We'll see...


----------



## TeslaTony310

SoFlaModel3 said:


> Sorry, yes, absolutely agree. That's why I started this thread. Access to him on Twitter is a blessing and a curse. You are absolutely right though, just because their documentation has been consistent doesn't mean he hasn't also promised things on social (seen by millions) that they haven't or won't be able to deliver on and that's frustrating and disappointing.
> 
> I hear you on that one. Challenge there will be on the regulations side probably more than the feature set itself. That said "no" is a strong and clear word and it's ultimately false. The current Teslas with the current hardware will never be in a position to meet "no action required". I think they'll keep getting better and better, but you're never taking a nap in a Hardware 3 car in my opinion just like you're never turning your Hardware 3 car into a Robotaxi (also my opinion).


Well, then right there, Elon is misleading people, if you are correct. He's repeatedly said that the car can do an autonomous, coast to coast trip, and I'm pretty sure he has said it can come pick you up, from a distance, which at that point, is L5.


----------



## Needsdecaf

TeslaTony310 said:


> Well, then right there, Elon is misleading people, if you are correct. He's repeatedly said that the car can do an autonomous, coast to coast trip, and I'm pretty sure he has said it can come pick you up, from a distance, which at that point, is L5.


He is undoubtedly misleading people.


----------



## DocScott

garsh said:


> It just has to be better on average than human drivers on average.
> 
> As long as accident statistics don't increase compared to human drivers, it will be worthwhile.


I disagree.

A lot of accidents are caused by people driving illegally in various ways (speeding, drunk, texting, ...). I don't think it's OK if autonomous cars are statistically safer than people who are driving illegally, but statistically less safe than people driving legally. If that were the case, and autonomous cars were legal, it would be making the people who would otherwise drive themselves legally less safe, and I don't think that's acceptable, even if it brings the overall accident rate down by protecting those who would drive illegally if they drove themselves.

I think autonomous cars (L4 or higher) should not be allowed in to general use until they are statistically safer than the average driver when they are driving in a legal fashion.

I realize that's a pretty high bar, although not as high as asking it to be safer than all drivers in all circumstances. But I think not asking for that standard is an unethical transfer of risk from people who drive illegally to people who drive legally.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Needsdecaf said:


> I'm not saying this to be glib. So please take this with the utmost sincerity (I know that you and I don't always agree, LOL).
> 
> You cannot use just this chart to understand SAE levels. In fact, after having read the entire 35 page J3016 document on Autonomous Driving Taxonomy, I would say this chart is actually kind of misleading when viewed out of context of the larger document. You really need to read the definitions to get the true understanding of what the SAE is trying to describe in this chart. As Long Ranger and I both quoted the text, "all conditions" means "all driver managble" conditions. They don't expect the system to drive through conditions a human couldn't.
> 
> As for your 81 year old aunt, well, she probably shouldn't have a license if she can't drive through those conditions. Or, less harshly, she shouldn't be out in those conditions. It's almost like she becomes a L3 system. She has limitations and needs to operate within those limitations. But that doesn't mean all the other drivers on the road shouldn't be out because they are capable of handling it.
> 
> I hope that makes sense.


It does make sense.

The problem that I have with autonomy still exists though as it compares to human drivers.

Allow me to ask this in a different way.

If Tesla sent FSD to the DMV to get a drivers license - would it pass? If so.....give it a license.

Treat FSD like a human.....or does it have to be better than humans? if so....which humans?

DMV written test - 1 page front and back of an 8.5 X 11 sheet of paper. Autonomous explanation book - 35 pages.


----------



## Bigriver

SoFlaModel3 said:


> FSD is everything Tesla said it was going to be from day 1.


One thing I noticed that has changed is that there is no longer any mention/claim of having super chargers with "automatic charge connection enabled." The 2016 FSD summary had said you wouldn't even have to take any action at these SCs. It didn't promise that all SC's would have this capability, but it does read as if the capability will exist. No similar concept being put out there today with the FSD description. I did find the tweet history interesting, though. I do believe someone at Tesla has had a pretty clear vision from the beginning of what FSD could do.



FRC said:


> I wouldn't consider the hands on wheel nag to be "no action required".


I'm not so concerned about the nags. They are training wheels that will get removed some day. I feel like Jane Jetson [edit: Corrected name] complaining about how exhausting it is to push buttons (it's a great Jetsons episode) if I count touching the steering wheel as an issue. I have been having so many consecutive trips where autopilot has done so amazing - I never dreamed a car could do this much by itself. I don't mind holding its hand (um, I mean wheel) while it drives me.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Kimmo57 said:


> I would not like the requirements to be only what an 81 year old can do.


Which human would you suggest FSD match?


----------



## Kimmo57

Garlan Garner said:


> Which human would you suggest FSD match?


I would like the system to exceed someone in their physical and mental prime.


----------



## garsh

Kimmo57 said:


> I would like the system to exceed someone in their physical and mental prime.


I would like that too. But I will happily settle for a system that can exceed the people who I see on a daily basis.

The person reading text messages on their phone while driving.
The person holding the phone up to their head to talk while driving.
The person putting on makeup while driving.
The person eating while driving.
The person having a sneezing fit while driving.
If we can replace these people with a system that outperforms them, the world will be a better place. And these are the types of people who would happily have a car do their driving for them if they can afford it. They'd rather be doing something else anyhow.


----------



## DocScott

garsh said:


> I would like that too. But I will happily settle for a system that can exceed the people who I see on a daily basis.
> 
> The person reading text messages on their phone while driving.
> The person holding the phone up to their head to talk while driving.
> The person putting on makeup while driving.
> The person eating while driving.
> The person having a sneezing fit while driving.
> If we can replace these people with a system that outperforms them, the world will be a better place. And these are the types of people who would happily have a car do their driving for them if they can afford it. They'd rather be doing something else anyhow.


But it wouldn't only replace them. It would also replace the responsible person who is driving with great situational awareness and who could, for example, reasonably interpret that a ball rolling in to the street might mean that there's a kid about to chase after it, but who would rather be watching a movie or answering emails if they thought the car could drive itself. And that makes the world a worse place, if it results in a kid being killed.

"Better than someone who is distracted" is too low a bar.

And in fact, there's a _much_ easier way to accomplish what you're suggesting, although it wouldn't be popular: mandate gaze-tracking systems in _all_ new cars, autonomous or not. If the system detects someone is not watching the road, start beeping loudly, like cars do when a seat belt isn't fastened. Determining if the driver is paying attention is a much easier AI problem than L4. There'd be room for discussion as to what to do if the system finds the person is not paying attention (a nag? turn the hazards on? slow the car?), but surely too that is an easier question to address than the panoply of issues that come with autonomy.


----------



## Garlan Garner

garsh said:


> I would like that too. But I will happily settle for a system that can exceed the people who I see on a daily basis.
> 
> The person reading text messages on their phone while driving.
> The person holding the phone up to their head to talk while driving.
> The person putting on makeup while driving.
> The person eating while driving.
> The person having a sneezing fit while driving.
> If we can replace these people with a system that outperforms them, the world will be a better place. And these are the types of people who would happily have a car do their driving for them if they can afford it. They'd rather be doing something else anyhow.


I agree 100%.

But people doing those things are L3 "at best" during those times. LOL


----------



## Garlan Garner

Kimmo57 said:


> I would like the system to exceed someone in their physical and mental prime.


Oh boy.....just thinking out loud here.

My aunt ( now 81 ) - in her prime - even the dog didn't want to ride when she was driving.

Anyway.......what were we talking about?


----------



## M3OC Rules

I think when Elon talks about this he's looking at accident rate. So he says things like twice as good as a human. If you look at Mobileye's CES presentation they argue that twice as good as a human is still a ton of accidents. They argue it needs to be 1000x. Right now, a single accident can easily result in a large news story. How many Tesla's crashing themselves each day is acceptable?



> The annual number of miles driven in the US is about 3.2 trillion. The number of accidents with injuries is about 6 million. Assuming an average speed of 10 mph, the mean time between failures [MTBF] is 50,000 hours of driving. Consider deploying 100,000 AVs to serve as robo-shuttles. Assume each robotaxi drives five hours a day. So, with a 10x MTBF design, there should be one accident every day. With a100x design, an accident every week, and at 1,000x, one crash per quarter. Getting every car on the road to score a 10x better MTBF would be a huge achievement. But for a fleet operator, an accident occurring every day is unacceptable. Hence, Mobileye believes a lower boundary of 1,000x on MTBF "is a must." To get there, collecting billions of hours of test driving is untenable.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Garlan Garner said:


> It does make sense.
> 
> The problem that I have with autonomy still exists though as it compares to human drivers.
> 
> Allow me to ask this in a different way.
> 
> If Tesla sent FSD to the DMV to get a drivers license - would it pass? If so.....give it a license.
> 
> Treat FSD like a human.....or does it have to be better than humans? if so....which humans?
> 
> DMV written test - 1 page front and back of an 8.5 X 11 sheet of paper. Autonomous explanation book - 35 pages.


You can't think that way. The taxonomy doesn't speak that way. Autonomy isn't "human replacement". It doesn't have to be better or worse than humans. I just has to complete a task without being a danger to other cars around it.

If you read the whole text, it doesn't really compare it to human drivers.

No, it would not pass the driver's license test. It's not a humanoid robot. It's a driving aid. It's not capable of going from one task to the other or waiting and understanding human instructions. All it needs to do is to be told to "go from point A to point B".


----------



## garsh

DocScott said:


> But it wouldn't only replace them. It would also replace the responsible person who is driving with great situational awareness and who could, for example, reasonably interpret that a ball rolling in to the street might mean that there's a kid about to chase after it, but who would rather be watching a movie or answering emails if they thought the car could drive itself. And that makes the world a worse place, if it results in a kid being killed.


Teslas have already demonstrated better situational awareness in many situations, even compared to a responsible driver. It's hard to compete against eight cameras, radar, and sonar when all you have are two eyeballs.





 






DocScott said:


> "Better than someone who is distracted" is too low a bar.


I guess we'll agree to disagree.


----------



## Needsdecaf

garsh said:


> Teslas have already demonstrated better situational awareness in many situations, even compared to a responsible driver. It's hard to compete against eight cameras, radar, and sonar when all you have are two eyeballs.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I guess we'll agree to disagree.


Yes, but for every one of those, I'll give you a phantom brake due to an overpass or an overhead sign gantry, or continuing on at full cruise speed toward stopped traffic it can't "see" around the bend in a highway but I can. Both of those happened to me this morning.

Giving you grief on purpose, but every system has limitations.


----------



## garsh

Needsdecaf said:


> Yes, but for every one of those, I'll give you a phantom brake due to an overpass or an overhead sign gantry, or continuing on at full cruise speed toward stopped traffic it can't "see" around the bend in a highway but I can. Both of those happened to me this morning.
> 
> Giving you grief on purpose, but every system has limitations.


Yep, no doubt. But the software will continue to improve to better understand what it is seeing, whereas us humans will remain limited by our optical hardware.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Just to add a little perspective the average American drivers 13500 miles per year. At that rate the average person has 0.84 police reported crashes over 30 years and 1.68 crashes over 60 years. It's not that bad on an individual level.

Also people under 30 have a higher accident rate than people over 80 so give grandma a break! If Tesla was 2x better than average it would be like 4 times better than grandma and 14 times better than 16-17 year olds. That would be maybe 50/50 chance of crashing once during the life of the car.

Tesla says they are 8-9x better than average for miles on Autopilot for what it's worth.

https://aaafoundation.org/rates-mot...-relation-driver-age-united-states-2014-2015/https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport


----------



## SoFlaModel3

And Elon Tweeted again. So much for "the button" in 10 days from a few days ago.... 🤦🏻‍♂️


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1370522745709158407


----------



## Garlan Garner

Needsdecaf said:


> You can't think that way. The taxonomy doesn't speak that way. Autonomy isn't "human replacement". It doesn't have to be better or worse than humans. I just has to complete a task without being a danger to other cars around it.
> 
> If you read the whole text, it doesn't really compare it to human drivers.
> 
> No, it would not pass the driver's license test. It's not a humanoid robot. It's a driving aid. It's not capable of going from one task to the other or waiting and understanding human instructions. All it needs to do is to be told to "go from point A to point B".


Absolutely I can think that way. Absolutely.

Autopilot WILL definitely BE a human replacement. Its called robo taxi. Thats where I'm speaking from.

Can FSD beta get a drivers license? Does anyone know? Or is it pure speculation that it can't.

______________________________________________________

Currently FSD beta is very very close. No intervention taking his daughter to school in this video. Its darn close

(65) Preparing for Tesla FSDbeta - YouTube

Absolutely I can think this way and its still beta.

FSD Beta is not being developed as a driving aid.

I can't talk about my non-beta version of FSD being L5 and passing a drivers test. That would be ludicrous ( pun intended ).


----------



## Garlan Garner

Needsdecaf said:


> Yes, but for every one of those, I'll give you a phantom brake due to an overpass or an overhead sign gantry, or continuing on at full cruise speed toward stopped traffic it can't "see" around the bend in a highway but I can. Both of those happened to me this morning.
> 
> Giving you grief on purpose, but every system has limitations.


For every Phantom brake a Tesla does....I'll give you a million done by humans.

My aunt owns 10 a day herself ( seeing ghosts and stuff ). I tell her all of the time - That aint no ghost.....that's yo dirty windshield.

____________________________________

Everyone keeps comparing FSD functionality to perfection.

I compare FSD functionality to humans. ( more realistic to me ).

If FSD can driver better than a human - "good enough".


----------



## FRC

Genuine question here @Garlan Garner ; When, specifically, do you expect to accept you first robotaxi fare? No equivocation, no dancing around the question, you are a believer, give me a date.


Garlan Garner said:


> Autopilot WILL definitely BE a human replacement. Its called robo taxi. Thats where I'm speaking from.


----------



## Garlan Garner

FRC said:


> Genuine question here @Garlan Garner ; When, specifically, do you expect to accept you first robotaxi fare? No equivocation, no dancing around the question, you are a believer, give me a date.


As soon as I get FSD beta. Seriously.

TeslaRaj is doing it taking his daughter to school. No intervention

(65) Preparing for Tesla FSDbeta - YouTube

Hopefully that will be next month.


----------



## FRC

So, you expect to accept a robotaxi fare no later than next month? Seriously?? I don't believe that my 2018 P3D will live long enough to earn a robotaxi fare. Not this year or next, not 5 years from now. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but would bet big $$$ that I'm not.


----------



## Garlan Garner

FRC said:


> So, you expect to accept a robotaxi fare no later than next month? Seriously?? I don't believe that my 2018 P3D will live long enough to earn a robotaxi fare. Not this year or next, not 5 years from now. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but would bet big $$$ that I'm not.


Absolutely.

I'm saying that my own car will be my robotaxi. I will charge myself.

The only problem is that I won't be able to leave the drivers seat yet. Its a software limitation right now. I would if I could.


----------



## FRC

Garlan Garner said:


> Absolutely.
> 
> I'm saying that my own car will be my robotaxi. I will charge myself.
> 
> The only problem is that I won't be able to leave the drivers seat yet. Its a software limitation right now. I would if I could.


BS. Total BS.


----------



## FRC

Garlan Garner said:


> Absolutely.
> 
> I'm saying that my own car will be my robotaxi. I will charge myself.
> 
> The only problem is that I won't be able to leave the drivers seat yet. Its a software limitation right now. I would if I could.


Did you miss the part that mentioned serious question?


----------



## DocScott

garsh said:


> Teslas have already demonstrated better situational awareness in many situations, even compared to a responsible driver. It's hard to compete against eight cameras, radar, and sonar when all you have are two eyeballs.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I guess we'll agree to disagree.


I completely agree with that!

But "many situations" is great for L2, and even better for active safety systems like emergency braking. It is woefully insufficient for L5. I think that's where we disagree.


----------



## Garlan Garner

FRC said:


> Did you miss the part that mentioned serious question?


Doesn't matter to me.

I'll do it.

It doesn't have to be Level 5.

That's perfection that outpaces humans that have been driving like maniacs for decades upon decades.

The fact that there is a Level 5 is just plain stupid.

I would bet that if someone came up with a level 6, 7, and 8 folks would say that FSD needs to meet those criteria also.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Maybe I should start a poll to find out who believes they drive L5 every day.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Garlan Garner said:


> Maybe I should start a poll to find out who believes they drive L5 every day.


L5 is defined by an SAE standard. "Standards from SAE International are used to advance mobility engineering throughout the world. The SAE Technical Standards Development Program is now-and has been for nearly a century-among the organization's primary provisions to those mobility industries it serves: aerospace, automotive, and commercial vehicle. Today's SAE standards product line includes almost 10,000 documents created through consensus standards development by more than 240 SAE Technical Committees with 450+ subcommittees and task groups. These works are authorized, revised, and maintained by the volunteer efforts of more than 9,000 engineers, and other qualified professionals from around the world. Additionally, SAE has 60 US Technical Advisory Group (USTAG's) to ISO Committees."

Its for cars not people and its defined by engineers not each individual drivers. There are no L5 cars that meet that standard so your poll would not serve your purpose IMO. Don't try to redefine it. L5 is very relevant since Elon has repeatedly said he thinks current cars will achieve L5. That's what Tesla is selling. It's great if you're happy with what you have and the rate of progress for what you paid. I am too. But it's also ok for people to be disappointed that Tesla has not delivered on their claims with the timeline they provided. Not guaranteed but given in Tweets and formal investor and quarterly earnings meetings.


----------



## Garlan Garner

M3OC Rules said:


> L5 is defined by an SAE standard. "Standards from SAE International are used to advance mobility engineering throughout the world. The SAE Technical Standards Development Program is now-and has been for nearly a century-among the organization's primary provisions to those mobility industries it serves: aerospace, automotive, and commercial vehicle. Today's SAE standards product line includes almost 10,000 documents created through consensus standards development by more than 240 SAE Technical Committees with 450+ subcommittees and task groups. These works are authorized, revised, and maintained by the volunteer efforts of more than 9,000 engineers, and other qualified professionals from around the world. Additionally, SAE has 60 US Technical Advisory Group (USTAG's) to ISO Committees."
> 
> Its for cars not people and its defined by engineers not each individual drivers. There are no L5 cars that meet that standard so your poll would not serve your purpose IMO. Don't try to redefine it. L5 is very relevant since Elon has repeatedly said he thinks current cars will achieve L5. That's what Tesla is selling. It's great if you're happy with what you have and the rate of progress for what you paid. I am too. But it's also ok for people to be disappointed that Tesla has not delivered on their claims with the timeline they provided. Not guaranteed but given in Tweets and formal investor and quarterly earnings meetings.


I agree with you that L5 is for cars......and that's my problem.

The problem is that HUMANS are indeed the standard for navigating a vehicle. Who else would it be? Dogs? Cats? Aliens?

no Humans.

L5 is being defined to function as something other than humans and that's what I have a problem with. Humans are the standard.

All cars have to do is mimic humans.

____________________________________________________________

IMHO driving better than humans isn't cheap.

Where do you believe Humans live? L2? L3? L4? L5?

L2 - maybe $3k?
L3 - maybe $5k?
L4 - maybe $7k?
L5 - maybe $10k?

Keep going engineers. What about L6, L7 and L8.

L8 - navigating to Mars


----------



## M3OC Rules

Garlan Garner said:


> I agree with you that L5 is for cars......and that's my problem.
> 
> The problem is that HUMANS are indeed the standard for navigating a vehicle. Who else would it be? Dogs? Cats? Aliens?
> 
> no Humans.
> 
> L5 is being defined to function as something other than humans and that's what I have a problem with. Humans are the standard.
> 
> All cars have to do is mimic humans.
> 
> ____________________________________________________________
> 
> IMHO driving better than humans isn't cheap.
> 
> Where do you believe Humans live? L2? L3? L4? L5?
> 
> L2 - maybe $3k?
> L3 - maybe $5k?
> L4 - maybe $7k?
> L5 - maybe $10k?
> 
> Keep going engineers. What about L6, L7 and L8.
> 
> L8 - navigating to Mars


Ya. L5 is relevant because its the standard that Elon is giving us. I don't know if there is a way to get certified as meeting the standard but the being certified to meet the SAE standard is not the metric or only metric that will be used by regulators. The standard is for engineers to hopefully guide them to a path of a safe product. There is no defined safety metric right now and ultimately will be decided by regulators. So Elon says things like we think we can get to 2x safer than humans but we're subject to regulators. I think at this point the burden is on the manufacturer to provide evidence that its safe enough for use. There is no test so you can't know if you're going to pass or not.

Standards are not easy to make and some are better than others and some are harder to make than others. This will be fluid as they try to figure this out. Here is an example of last June they announced SAE and UL are collaborating on Autonomous Vehicles. https://www.sae.org/news/press-room...reement-to-collaborate-on-autonomous-vehicles Regulators are also trying to figure out how to ensure what they approve is safe enough and not stiffle innovation.

There is a massive difference between L2 and L5 for the end user. L5 opens up all sorts of new usage cases. Self valet, sleeping while the car takes you places, picking up kids without you being in the car, using one car for two people to commute, car self driving to a vacation destination while you fly, driving drunk people around, and on and on. Also if its safer, its safer. I think its so abstract people don't really know how to value it yet. I'm really excited about trying it before its done but I'd guess most people don't care about beta testing. So the value might be there for you and I but not for most people.

Currently L5 doesn't exist and L4 is probably like $200k. There is one L3 that works in Japan at low speeds. You really need to get into the details of what you're getting to determine a value. Even at L4 or L5 you could have something that is safe but is really slow or gets stuck and needs help a lot. The levels don't define ALL the features, performance, or safety. Tesla could be 2x safer than humans and Mobileye cars could be 1000x.


----------



## Garlan Garner

M3OC Rules said:


> Ya. L5 is relevant because its the standard that Elon is giving us. I don't know if there is a way to get certified as meeting the standard but the being certified to meet the SAE standard is not the metric or only metric that will be used by regulators. The standard is for engineers to hopefully guide them to a path of a safe product. There is no defined safety metric right now and ultimately will be decided by regulators. So Elon says things like we think we can get to 2x safer than humans but we're subject to regulators. I think at this point the burden is on the manufacturer to provide evidence that its safe enough for use. There is no test so you can't know if you're going to pass or not.
> 
> Standards are not easy to make and some are better than others and some are harder to make than others. This will be fluid as they try to figure this out. Here is an example of last June they announced SAE and UL are collaborating on Autonomous Vehicles. https://www.sae.org/news/press-room...reement-to-collaborate-on-autonomous-vehicles Regulators are also trying to figure out how to ensure what they approve is safe enough and not stiffle innovation.
> 
> There is a massive difference between L2 and L5 for the end user. L5 opens up all sorts of new usage cases. Self valet, sleeping while the car takes you places, picking up kids without you being in the car, using one car for two people to commute, car self driving to a vacation destination while you fly, driving drunk people around, and on and on. Also if its safer, its safer. I think its so abstract people don't really know how to value it yet. I'm really excited about trying it before its done but I'd guess most people don't care about beta testing. So the value might be there for you and I but not for most people.
> 
> Currently L5 doesn't exist and L4 is probably like $200k. There is one L3 that works in Japan at low speeds. You really need to get into the details of what you're getting to determine a value. Even at L4 or L5 you could have something that is safe but is really slow or gets stuck and needs help a lot. The levels don't define ALL the features, performance, or safety. Tesla could be 2x safer than humans and Mobileye cars could be 1000x.


I agree,

Elon should NOT be referencing L5.

Elon is not my measuring tape.

However,

He didn't make the standard......but he is referencing it and in my opinion....he shouldn't.

I understand the differences between the L's.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Garlan Garner said:


> I agree with you that L5 is for cars......and that's my problem.
> 
> The problem is that HUMANS are indeed the standard for navigating a vehicle. Who else would it be? Dogs? Cats? Aliens?
> 
> no Humans.
> 
> L5 is being defined to function as something other than humans and that's what I have a problem with. Humans are the standard.
> 
> All cars have to do is mimic humans.
> 
> ____________________________________________________________
> 
> IMHO driving better than humans isn't cheap.
> 
> Where do you believe Humans live? L2? L3? L4? L5?
> 
> L2 - maybe $3k?
> L3 - maybe $5k?
> L4 - maybe $7k?
> L5 - maybe $10k?
> 
> Keep going engineers. What about L6, L7 and L8.
> 
> L8 - navigating to Mars


You continue to rely on this weak argument about L5 somehow being baloney because average human drivers are bad. Maybe you should actually do some research instead instead of tilting at windmills.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Needsdecaf said:


> You continue to rely on this weak argument about L5 somehow being baloney because average human drivers are bad. Maybe you should actually do some research instead instead of tilting at windmills.


No one is disagreeing with my argument in talking about human drivers.

Its not weak at all. Not in the least bit.

CAN FSD beta beat this? If so....I could care less about L5, L6, or L12 or anything. Roll it out.

For more information, see the NHTSA Traffic Safety Facts, 2019.


Over 37,000 people die in road accidents each year
2.35 million are injured or disabled by their accidents
Over 1,600 children under 15 years of age die each year
2 million drivers experience a permanent injury every year.
Road crashes cost the U.S. $230.6 billion per year, or an average of $820 per person
California and Texas have the highest rates of car accidents in 2018.
There is an average of one alcohol-impaired driving fatality every 48 minutes
Most fatal injuries happen during weekends and on holidays such as Thanksgiving when alcohol use is more predominant.Reference 2
These are real human statistics.

Lower the deaths from 37K down to 10K with FSD - Good enough. Not perfect yet...but good enough.

Elon - Be perfect later. Lets save some lives "right now"!!


----------



## Kimmo57

SoFlaModel3 said:


> And Elon Tweeted again. So much for "the button" in 10 days from a few days ago.... 🤦🏻‍♂️
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1370522745709158407


"Going with pure vision..."
Many of the problems I've encountered have been due to lack of vision. Super duper cameras are of no help, when they are constantly sprayed with dirty water.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Kimmo57 said:


> "Going with pure vision..."
> Many of the problems I've encountered have been due to lack of vision. Super duper cameras are of no help, when they are constantly sprayed with dirty water.


Pure vision has been working. No accidents.


----------



## shareef777

Garlan Garner said:


> No one is disagreeing with my argument in talking about human drivers.
> 
> Its not weak at all. Not in the least bit.
> 
> CAN FSD beta beat this? If so....I could care less about L5, L6, or L12 or anything. Roll it out.
> 
> For more information, see the NHTSA Traffic Safety Facts, 2019.
> 
> 
> Over 37,000 people die in road accidents each year
> 2.35 million are injured or disabled by their accidents
> Over 1,600 children under 15 years of age die each year
> 2 million drivers experience a permanent injury every year.
> Road crashes cost the U.S. $230.6 billion per year, or an average of $820 per person
> California and Texas have the highest rates of car accidents in 2018.
> There is an average of one alcohol-impaired driving fatality every 48 minutes
> Most fatal injuries happen during weekends and on holidays such as Thanksgiving when alcohol use is more predominant.Reference 2
> These are real human statistics.
> 
> Lower the deaths from 37K down to 10K with FSD - Good enough. Not perfect yet...but good enough.
> 
> Elon - Be perfect later. Lets save some lives "right now"!!


37k deaths by MILLIONS of drivers. If every one of those millions of vehicles were replaced by FSD capable models and all those drivers took their eyes/hands off the wheel, I'd imagine that number would creep up to six figures really quick. AUTOPILOT isn't that reliable with us paying attention let alone rely on FSD.

Don't get me wrong, AP/FSD are amazing and I use them A LOT, but I've definitely had to take over a few times a year to avoid my 3 smashing into either a barricade or merging into a lane with an existing vehicle. Last I checked, most drivers don't average a few accidents a year.


----------



## iChris93

shareef777 said:


> I've definitely had to take over a few times a year to avoid my 3 smashing into either a barricade or merging into a lane with an existing vehicle.


To add, it has been very windy here this past week and on the interstate, the semi-trucks are all over the place. To me, AP (always NoA for me) does not do anything if the car next to you approaches, or crosses, the line. Too many times, I feel like the semi, or other vehicle, is getting too close so I take over. Would a collision occur if I didn't? I'm not going to try to find out.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Garlan Garner said:


> No one is disagreeing with my argument in talking about human drivers.
> 
> Its not weak at all. Not in the least bit.
> 
> CAN FSD beta beat this? If so....I could care less about L5, L6, or L12 or anything. Roll it out.
> 
> For more information, see the NHTSA Traffic Safety Facts, 2019.
> 
> 
> Over 37,000 people die in road accidents each year
> 2.35 million are injured or disabled by their accidents
> Over 1,600 children under 15 years of age die each year
> 2 million drivers experience a permanent injury every year.
> Road crashes cost the U.S. $230.6 billion per year, or an average of $820 per person
> California and Texas have the highest rates of car accidents in 2018.
> There is an average of one alcohol-impaired driving fatality every 48 minutes
> Most fatal injuries happen during weekends and on holidays such as Thanksgiving when alcohol use is more predominant.Reference 2
> These are real human statistics.
> 
> Lower the deaths from 37K down to 10K with FSD - Good enough. Not perfect yet...but good enough.
> 
> Elon - Be perfect later. Lets save some lives "right now"!!


No, it is. Because you're conflating your desires with an technical taxonomical convention. These are not the same things.

You have desires to reduce the above statistics. I don't think you're going to get any argument with that. However the SAE Levels are called "Taxonomy and Definitions for Terms Related to Driving Automation Systems for On-Road Motor Vehicles." It sets out to define the 5 different levels of autonomous vehicle assistance. That's it. It's not a moral compass, it's not saying that L4 or L5 or any level will do or accomplish ANYTHING as you suggest. It just is. It exists in absence of all of that. In fact, it directly speaks to NOT involving itself in the greater realm of the application.

you'd know this if you'd read it like I suggested you did.

So when you continually say "what level of driver does L5 have to be better than?" , that's not a question that should be answered. Because L5 doesn't address anything like that. It just defines what the vehicle must be able to do. Not how well it has to do it. Whether it can do it better or worse than your 80-something year old aunt, whether it will cause more crashes or help avoid crashes is completely immaterial to the discussion of whether a system is L5 or not.

L5 does not have to lower any crash rates in order to exist. It does not have to drive better or worse than your aunt. In order for a vehicle to be L5, it just has to do certain things. That's it.

Truly, I suggest you read the standard and understand it. Here is a snippet:

_"J3016 is not a specification and imposes no requirements.

J3016 provides a logical taxonomy for classifying driving automation features (and ADS-dedicated vehicles), along with a set of terms and definitions that support the taxonomy and otherwise standardize related concepts, terms and usage in order to facilitate clear communications. As such, J3016 is a convention based upon reasoned agreement, rather than a technical specification". _

I understand what you wish the FSD system to accomplish. That's an entirely different discussion. The can do has to come before the "should it".


----------



## Garlan Garner

Needsdecaf said:


> No, it is. Because you're conflating your desires with an technical taxonomical convention. These are not the same things.
> 
> You have desires to reduce the above statistics. I don't think you're going to get any argument with that. However the SAE Levels are called "Taxonomy and Definitions for Terms Related to Driving Automation Systems for On-Road Motor Vehicles." It sets out to define the 5 different levels of autonomous vehicle assistance. That's it. It's not a moral compass, it's not saying that L4 or L5 or any level will do or accomplish ANYTHING as you suggest. It just is. It exists in absence of all of that. In fact, it directly speaks to NOT involving itself in the greater realm of the application.
> 
> you'd know this if you'd read it like I suggested you did.
> 
> So when you continually say "what level of driver does L5 have to be better than?" , that's not a question that should be answered. Because L5 doesn't address anything like that. It just defines what the vehicle must be able to do. Not how well it has to do it. Whether it can do it better or worse than your 80-something year old aunt, whether it will cause more crashes or help avoid crashes is completely immaterial to the discussion of whether a system is L5 or not.
> 
> L5 does not have to lower any crash rates in order to exist. It does not have to drive better or worse than your aunt. In order for a vehicle to be L5, it just has to do certain things. That's it.
> 
> Truly, I suggest you read the standard and understand it. Here is a snippet:
> 
> _"J3016 is not a specification and imposes no requirements.
> 
> J3016 provides a logical taxonomy for classifying driving automation features (and ADS-dedicated vehicles), along with a set of terms and definitions that support the taxonomy and otherwise standardize related concepts, terms and usage in order to facilitate clear communications. As such, J3016 is a convention based upon reasoned agreement, rather than a technical specification". _
> 
> I understand what you wish the FSD system to accomplish. That's an entirely different discussion. The can do has to come before the "should it".


I do believe I understand you. I do believe I understand the Levels of automation. 
And yes....I'm stating my desires....you are correct.

I've thought about it and its probably my fault for not being clearer.

If a certain set of rules/objectives such as the levels of automation and a car accomplishes them. That's fine and good. I have no problem with that at all. Not in the least bit. It could take another 5-10 years for L5 to be finished. Who knows. However FSD beta is being rolled out right now and its really good. Both versions of FSD are really good. Its driving. If beta-beta is rolled out more widespread - it could save lives at whatever level it is right now - without it being L5.

Elon just quoted that beta-beta - There have been no accidents. That's the statement he wanted to be heard in his revoking statement. I may be wrong, but I believe that lawmakers and such want to know simple stuff like - did anyone get hurt with your product? Was there any damage while it was driving the car? Was anyone killed? Did it run into anything. You know....simple questions. I'm not sure that getting FSD to level 5 autonomy is what they are concerned with. Many jurisdictions are accepting FSD at level 2.

I would hope that Elon would want more jurisdictions accepting FSD where it is....than getting FSD to level 5 - just like my version of the downgraded FSD has been accepted ( is that L1 ). 
If jurisdictions accept at level 2, then they would certainly accept level 5. However the opposite isn't true. If jurisdictions won't accept at level 2, then I don't think the extra work of getting it to level 5 matters to them.

In my opinion - Level 5 is a good objective, its fabulous and Tesla should and is perusing it. however I'm not sure its nearly as important as getting FSD beta accepted everywhere. YouTube is doing a great job of displaying its worthiness. How much is L5 worth if L2 can't get widespread acceptance?

Ok...well. Thanks for the discussion. I'm out.


----------



## Wooloomooloo

I’m not sure if that was trolling, or the result of too much isolation. Regardless, this thread started off quite promising and seems to have gone off course.

I agree with the OP, FSD has been oversold and “full autonomy” with no human inout is at least a decade away. I’m one of those people who got FSD and the HW3.0 upgrade for $2k, although I’d already paid for EAP and also paid over $80k for my P3D+ back in 2018, so I feel like I paid my dues.

I really like the company, and love my car, but truth be told if I was buying a new car this year, or next, not sure id make the same decision. I feel like Tesla has bet too heavily on autonomy, and someone earlier said it was unnecessary, because the cars have many compelling reasons to buy them without it, so now they’re trapped by a promise they can’t keep.

I really hope they succeed, the technology is incredible, but the really hard part about teaching machines to make decisions, is all the knowledge we humans take for granted about the world that doesn’t seem to have anything to do with the task at hand, such as knowing what a kid chasing a ball along a pavement is likely to do, or any one of millions of other potential scenarios we make judgements about every day.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Wooloomooloo said:


> I'm not sure if that was trolling, or the result of too much isolation. Regardless, this thread started off quite promising and seems to have gone off course.
> 
> I agree with the OP, FSD has been oversold and "full autonomy" with no human inout is at least a decade away. I'm one of those people who got FSD and the HW3.0 upgrade for $2k, although I'd already paid for EAP and also paid over $80k for my P3D+ back in 2018, so I feel like I paid my dues.
> 
> ideally like the company, and love my car, but truth be told if I was buying a new car this year, or next, not sure id make the same decision. I feel like Tesla has bet too heavily on autonomy, and someone earlier said it was unnecessary, because the cars have many compelling reasons to buy them without it, so now they're trapped by a promise they can't keep.
> 
> I really hope they succeed, the technology is incredible, but the really hard part about teaching machines to make decisions, is all the knowledge we humans take for granted about the world that doesn't seem to have anything to do with the task at hand, such as knowing what a kid chasing a ball along a pavement is likely to do, or any one of millions of other potential scenarios we make judgements about every day.


First of all....my apologies if I contributed to getting the thread off course.

Would you install FSD beta beta if offered the opportunity?

Just curious. That's all. I'm debating if I would.


----------



## Wooloomooloo

Garlan Garner said:


> Would you install FSD beta beta if offered the opportunity?


Sure, who wouldn't, out of pure curiosity?


----------



## shareef777

Garlan Garner said:


> First of all....my apologies if I contributed to getting the thread off course.
> 
> Would you install FSD beta beta if offered the opportunity?
> 
> Just curious. That's all. I'm debating if I would.


Everyone that paid for it would, issue is we paid years ago and the results aren't anywhere there. Seems like we're still a decade away.

As someone already stated we've been sold a bill of goods and the original Tesla FSD owners speaking negatively about the absolute lack (practically zero) value of FSD is going to kill any FSD growth.

I had two referrals submitted today for Model3s and I made sure both buyers didn't get FSD. I'm not going to allow friends to get suckered by the snake oil sales pitch that is FSD.


----------



## DocScott

shareef777 said:


> I had two referrals submitted today for Model3s and I made sure both buyers didn't get FSD. I'm not going to allow friends to get suckered by the snake oil sales pitch that is FSD.


About a year ago I had a referral and I successfully argued against them getting FSD...

...and they then bought FSD post-purchase. The lure is still powerful. (That was pre-$10k, though.)


----------



## slacker775

Personally, I view the whole L1-L5 thing in the same vein as the OSI model for network protocols. A whole lot of geek-speak that when translated to reality, winds up being over-stuffed and unnecessary. TCP/IP blew past a whole lot of the OSI layers and did what needed to be done and it's been serving us for quite some time. Implementations of FSD will wind up doing the same. In many regards, the only thing really separating an L3 or L4 implementation from L5 is the part where the driver needs to be present for a potential scenario that may or may not occur in a time period. The underlying implementation and code is all the same, the only difference winds up being the driver detection piece. We may wind up in a sub-L5 situation for an extended period of time even though we'll effectively be at L5 just nobody wants to take off the 'beta' label.

In the end, this winds up being a whole lot of ultimately pointless speculation since we as outsiders do not have the details of whats actually going on. Certainly, thats what leads to a lot of the frustration. It's the same as the various speculation and arguments and anti-Tesla sentiments back when we were all waiting for our M3's. Where am I on the reservation list? How come that guy got to order before me? Will I get my car before 2037?? 

The new FSD videos are definitely looking like there is significant progress. Once we are all able to start hitting that button to try it for ourselves, it's just a lot of eye candy. I have zero doubt that there are many folks that will still be completely turned off of FSD due to their interpretations of it's function. I see all the time how people nag about doing the little steering wheel tweak and doing it too hard to take the car out AP, or that it gets too close to the lane edge for their liking, etc. All of these things may be legitimate, and they also may just be an individual perception where a different driver in the same car on the same stretch of road would not have any issue. Everybody thinks and operates differently leading to all of these different perceptions of how well it works. These are facts that should be considered as people evangelize or crucify FSD to others.


----------



## shareef777

DocScott said:


> About a year ago I had a referral and I successfully argued against them getting FSD...
> 
> ...and they then bought FSD post-purchase. The lure is still powerful. (That was pre-$10k, though.)


One of my buddies I was chatting with yesterday said that he's still thinking of getting it. Well, all I kept thinking was, at least I'll have someone else to gripe about this to in person (misery loves company).


----------



## Wooloomooloo

slacker775 said:


> In many regards, the only thing really separating an L3 or L4 implementation from L5 is the part where the driver needs to be present for a potential scenario that may or may not occur in a time period. *The underlying implementation and code is all the same, the only difference winds up being the driver detection piec*e. We may wind up in a sub-L5 situation for an extended period of time even though we'll effectively be at L5 just nobody wants to take off the 'beta' label.


I agree with much of your post, but this part couldn't be further from reality. With most software (and most things) you get 80% of the product with 20% of the effort (80/20 rule). But that last 20% is what takes most of the effort. It's those edge cases, which individually might only happen once every 5 years of driving, but when you have hundreds of thousands of cars on the roads doing millions of miles a day, are occurring every day.

The real thing that people don't understand about L5 autonomy, is that if and when it occurs, it will be the first time in human history that an autonomous machine has interacted with people out in the wild. It's not a chess engine, or a robot on Mars, or a game in VR. It's a real-life 3000lb+ object making its own decisions that can have life or death consequences. That is a huge deal and not something any company can take lightly.

I've worked in the AI and autonomy world for decades (NLP) and after all of these years, we still cannot develop chat bots that pass as human, and that's with trillions of data points to mine (the entire web), huge data centers powering the AI, and 40 years of working on the problem. Yet somehow we think Tesla can do visual-based autonomy with 8 cameras and a CPU more or less equivalent to the one in a new iPad, in 5 years?

Tesla themselves keep telling the regulators that FSD is not and never will be full autonomy. So don't take my word for it...


----------



## M3OC Rules

Garlan Garner said:


> If beta-beta is rolled out more widespread - it could save lives at whatever level it is right now - without it being L5.


It could or not. I'm going to try to make this relevant to the original post. We do not know if Autopilot is safer in its current form let alone FSD Beta. Tesla's public statistics are way too limited to tell for sure. Tesla does have enough data on autopilot and not nearly enough on FSD Beta but it depends on the human actions not just the competence of the system. This is relevant because the NTSB and NHTSA can shut it down. That could hinder development and probably add quite a few more angry customers to this thread. Personally I think Tesla has given more data to regulators that has kept them from shutting down Autopilot or requiring more driver monitoring. But it's clear regulators are worried about FSD Beta and in that case Tesla does not have enough data to make a statistical argument.


----------



## Garlan Garner

M3OC Rules said:


> It could or not. I'm going to try to make this relevant to the original post. We do not know if Autopilot is safer in its current form let alone FSD Beta. Tesla's public statistics are way too limited to tell for sure. Tesla does have enough data on autopilot and not nearly enough on FSD Beta but it depends on the human actions not just the competence of the system. This is relevant because the NTSB and NHTSA can shut it down. That could hinder development and probably add quite a few more angry customers to this thread. Personally I think Tesla has given more data to regulators that has kept them from shutting down Autopilot or requiring more driver monitoring. But it's clear regulators are worried about FSD Beta and in that case Tesla does not have enough data to make a statistical argument.


Elon described FSD/Autopilot as officially being "An order of magnitude" better than the US average - concerning accidents.

I don't know how many miles FSD beta-beta has been used on the road, but the statement from Elon is "No accidents".

Tesla Autopilot Accidents: 1 out of 4,530,000 Miles; US Average: 1 out of 479,000 Miles (cleantechnica.com)

I think those numbers are safer. But that's just my opinion.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Wooloomooloo said:


> Tesla themselves keep telling the regulators that FSD is not and never will be full autonomy.


This is out of context and wrong. They talk about full autonomy in the next paragraph. It's clear they are just saying to regulators they are not going to suddenly release FSD Beta as L3 or higher. Basically they are going to have an L2 feature called City Streets that is listed on the Tesla sales page for FSD as coming later this year Autosteer on city streets.


----------



## Wooloomooloo

M3OC Rules said:


> This is out of context and wrong. They talk about full autonomy in the next paragraph. It's clear they are just saying to regulators they are not going to suddenly release FSD Beta as L3 or higher. Basically they are going to have an L2 feature called City Streets that is listed on the Tesla sales page for FSD as coming later this year Autosteer on city streets.


You just told me I am wrong, then repeated exactly what I said.

The FSD beta is not full autonomy, it never has been and is never intended to be, and that's clear in their response. That doesn't mean they don't intend to build and release full autonomy in the future, but it's not the 'FSD' we're seeing today in the beta.

**edit. FSD is firmly a Level 2 SAE according to multiple responses from Tesla to the DMV.



> "we expect the functionality to remain largely unchanged in a future, full release to the customer fleet" ... "we do not expect significant enhancements" that would "shift the responsibility for the entire dynamic driving task to the system." The system "will continue to be an SAE Level 2, advanced driver-assistance feature."


----------



## M3OC Rules

Garlan Garner said:


> Elon described FSD/Autopilot as officially being "An order of magnitude" better than the US average - concerning accidents.
> 
> I don't know how many miles FSD beta-beta has been used on the road, but the statement from Elon is "No accidents".
> 
> Tesla Autopilot Accidents: 1 out of 4,530,000 Miles; US Average: 1 out of 479,000 Miles (cleantechnica.com)
> 
> I think those numbers are safer. But that's just my opinion.


In terms of Autopilot I'll point you to this article. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/05/sorry-elon-musk-theres-no-clear-evidence-autopilot-saves-lives/
I'm not saying I always agree with ars but they do have some valid points. Not all miles are equal when it comes to safety. As I said Tesla has the data to refute or confirm what the naysayers say but they haven't released it to the public.

In terms of FSD Beta there is no where near enough miles to make a statistical argument. If you have 1000 people with driving 3000 miles each that's 3M miles. You might expect 5 or 6 accidents. But that 479000 is for all cars not modern ones with lots of safety features like Tesla's. And the drivers have been hand selected and they are much more likely to be paying close attention. It's just not statistically significant yet.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Wooloomooloo said:


> You just told me I am wrong, then repeated exactly what I said.
> 
> The FSD beta is not full autonomy, it never has been and is never intended to be, and that's clear in their response. That doesn't mean they don't intend to build and release full autonomy in the future, but it's not the 'FSD' we're seeing today in the beta.
> 
> **edit. FSD is firmly a Level 2 SAE according to multiple responses from Tesla to the DMV.


If I take your statement in context and the fact you said FSD not FSD Beta or City Streets like it says in the text you were referring to, it's very similar to several news articles that make that leap that imply Tesla is admitting they will never reach full autonomy in current cars. I can say that Tesla never said FSD will never be fully autonomous. That's not what it says in the document you were referring to.

Edit to clarify and improve grammar.


----------



## Wooloomooloo

M3OC Rules said:


> If I take your statement in context and the fact you said FSD not FSD Beta or City Streets like it says in the text you were referring to, I can say that Tesla never said FSD will never be fully autonomous. That's not what it says in the document you were referring to and it's very similar to several news articles that make that leap.


It doesn't matter if you append it with 'beta'. This package, the FSD package even when it comes out of beta, will only be SAE Level 2. That's not full _autonomy_ by any stretch or any interpretation or within any context. The only people clinging to that idea are folks who get their news via Twitter and don't really know what they're talking about. Although to be fair, that seems like a lot of people.

Autonomy was the key word there, not 'fsd' which is a marketing term and something of a misnomer (same as Autopilot if we want to go there). I think we probably agree with one another looking at your other posts, but if you prefer to nitpick semantics, that's cool too!


----------



## Garlan Garner

M3OC Rules said:


> In terms of Autopilot I'll point you to this article. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/05/sorry-elon-musk-theres-no-clear-evidence-autopilot-saves-lives/
> I'm not saying I always agree with ars but they do have some valid points. Not all miles are equal when it comes to safety. As I said Tesla has the data to refute or confirm what the naysayers say but they haven't released it to the public.
> 
> In terms of FSD Beta there is no where near enough miles to make a statistical argument. If you have 1000 people with driving 3000 miles each that's 3M miles. You might expect 5 or 6 accidents. But that 479000 is for all cars not modern ones with lots of safety features like Tesla's. And the drivers have been hand selected and they are much more likely to be paying close attention. It's just not statistically significant yet.


I believe Tesla has over a billion miles on Autopilot.

That seems like sufficient mileage for an argument.

That report is saying that Tesla averages a single accident every 4.5 million miles.


----------



## shareef777

Wooloomooloo said:


> I agree with much of your post, but this part couldn't be further from reality. With most software (and most things) you get 80% of the product with 20% of the effort (80/20 rule). But that last 20% is what takes most of the effort. It's those edge cases, which individually might only happen once every 5 years of driving, but when you have hundreds of thousands of cars on the roads doing millions of miles a day, are occurring every day.
> 
> The real thing that people don't understand about L5 autonomy, is that if and when it occurs, it will be the first time in human history that an autonomous machine has interacted with people out in the wild. It's not a chess engine, or a robot on Mars, or a game in VR. It's a real-life 3000lb+ object making its own decisions that can have life or death consequences. That is a huge deal and not something any company can take lightly.
> 
> I've worked in the AI and autonomy world for decades (NLP) and after all of these years, we still cannot develop chat bots that pass as human, and that's with trillions of data points to mine (the entire web), huge data centers powering the AI, and 40 years of working on the problem. Yet somehow we think Tesla can do visual-based autonomy with 8 cameras and a CPU more or less equivalent to the one in a new iPad, in 5 years?
> 
> Tesla themselves keep telling the regulators that FSD is not and never will be full autonomy. So don't take my word for it...


You pretty. much summed up with 100% accuracy my thoughts on FSD. While the past years have seen impressive accomplishments by Tesla, they're akin to a toddler taking their first steps when it comes to L5 FSD. And at the end of the day if the contract for FSD that we all signed doesn't call out "hands free driving", then Tesla needs to drop the price of FSD to $5k and stop the snake oil sales pitch. May have been necessary to get cars out the door early in the 3s release, but now they're well established and the increasing idea of FSD meaning hands-free driving will lead to A LOT of negative press and eventually lawsuits. I don't know ANY person that bought a Tesla purely on the idea of FSD.


----------



## Garlan Garner

shareef777 said:


> You pretty. much summed up with 100% accuracy my thoughts on FSD. While the past years have seen impressive accomplishments by Tesla, they're akin to a toddler taking their first steps when it comes to L5 FSD. And at the end of the day if the contract for FSD that we all signed doesn't call out "hands free driving", then Tesla needs to drop the price of FSD to $5k and stop the snake oil sales pitch. May have been necessary to get cars out the door early in the 3s release, but now they're well established and the increasing idea of FSD meaning hands-free driving will lead to A LOT of negative press and eventually lawsuits. I don't know ANY person that bought a Tesla purely on the idea of FSD.


I just want the hands free local autonomy level they have right now.

I already have the hands free highway autonomy level and its been really nice.

The local beta-beta autonomy YouTube video's are nice.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Wooloomooloo said:


> It doesn't matter if you append it with 'beta'. This package, the FSD package even when it comes out of beta, will only be SAE Level 2. That's not full _autonomy_ by any stretch or any interpretation or within any context. The only people clinging to that idea are folks who get their news via Twitter and don't really know what they're talking about. Although to be fair, that seems like a lot of people.
> 
> Autonomy was the key word there, not 'fsd' which is a marketing term and something of a misnomer (same as Autopilot if we want to go there). I think we probably agree with one another looking at your other posts, but if you prefer to nitpick semantics, that's cool too!


I totally respect your experience and opinion. I'm just refuting what you are saying Tesla said. Tesla has not said they will not achieve full autonomy with FSD. Nothing in that text you referred to made any new statements on Tesla's development plans. Tesla is planning on releasing City Streets as a L2 feature. That doesn't mean they aren't still developing L5. It doesn't somehow change timing or is an admission of anything or a change of plans. As one person here put it, it's a "nothing burger." It shouldn't be used to imply more than that. I don't want to nitpick semantics but I think it's important that we're not putting words in Tesla's mouth. In this case you changed the word which changed the meaning.

Edit for clarification.


----------



## Garlan Garner

M3OC Rules said:


> I totally respect your experience and opinion. I'm just refuting what Tesla said. Tesla has not said they will not achieve full autonomy with FSD. Nothing in that text you referred to made any new statements on Tesla's development plans. Tesla is planning on releasing City Streets as a L2 feature. That doesn't mean they aren't still developing L5. It doesn't somehow change timing or is an admission of anything or a change of plans. As one person here put it, it's a "nothing burger." It shouldn't be used to imply more than that. I don't want to nitpick semantics but I think it's important that we're not putting words in Tesla's mouth. In this case you changed the word which changed the meaning.


You are exactly right.

Fantastic wording.


----------



## shareef777

M3OC Rules said:


> I totally respect your experience and opinion. I'm just refuting what Tesla said. Tesla has not said they will not achieve full autonomy with FSD. Nothing in that text you referred to made any new statements on Tesla's development plans. Tesla is planning on releasing City Streets as a L2 feature. That doesn't mean they aren't still developing L5. It doesn't somehow change timing or is an admission of anything or a change of plans. As one person here put it, it's a "nothing burger." It shouldn't be used to imply more than that. I don't want to nitpick semantics but I think it's important that we're not putting words in Tesla's mouth. In this case you changed the word which changed the meaning.


How about Tesla's repeated, "FSD will be released end of year "? That they say year, after year, after year!


----------



## shareef777

Garlan Garner said:


> I just want the hands free local autonomy level they have right now.
> 
> I already have the hands free highway autonomy level and its been really nice.
> 
> The local beta-beta autonomy YouTube video's are nice.


We don't have hands free ANYTHING!

NoA on the highway requires you to have hands on the wheel. Summon requires you to have eyes on your vehicle. We need to supervise EVERYTHING our vehicles do!


----------



## Wooloomooloo

M3OC Rules said:


> I totally respect your experience and opinion. I'm just refuting what Tesla said. Tesla has not said they will not achieve full autonomy with FSD. Nothing in that text you referred to made any new statements on Tesla's development plans. Tesla is planning on releasing City Streets as a L2 feature. That doesn't mean they aren't still developing L5. It doesn't somehow change timing or is an admission of anything or a change of plans. As one person here put it, it's a "nothing burger." It shouldn't be used to imply more than that. I don't want to nitpick semantics but I think it's important that we're not putting words in Tesla's mouth. In this case you changed the word which changed the meaning.


I'm a little confused by this response, as your tone suggests disagreement, but everything you're writing is repeating what I said and agreeing. Is this argument for argument's sake?

*"I'm just refuting what Tesla said. "*

Are you refuting what Tesla have said, or what others have attributed to Tesla. This doesn't make sense.

*"Tesla has not said they will not achieve full autonomy with FSD."*

Actually they quite literally said that when they said "FSD lacks true autonomous features". This is important semantics, because we can see that Tesla defines "autonomous" as "doesn't require human intervention" whereas FSD means "can drive by itself, with supervision". Generally in AI circles, "autonomy" refers to true unsupervised action in a given task".

*"Tesla is planning on releasing City Streets as a L2 feature. That doesn't mean they aren't still developing L5."*

How is that different from my first post, where I said "The FSD beta is not full autonomy, it never has been and is never intended to be, and that's clear in their response. That doesn't mean they don't intend to build and release full autonomy in the future, but it's not the 'FSD' we're seeing today in the beta."

"In this case you changed the word which changed the meaning."

No, I meant what I said first time. FSD is not, never was, never will be, full autonomy. Tesla agrees with this. When they release full autonomy in 2028 (or whenever) it won't be called FSD, it won't be running on HW 3.0 and it won't be in the car you bought in 2018.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Wooloomooloo said:


> No, I meant what I said first time. FSD is not, never was, never will be, full autonomy. Tesla agrees with this. When they release full autonomy in 2028 (or whenever) it won't be called FSD, it won't be running on HW 3.0 and it won't be in the car you bought in 2018.


Can we agree this is the quote we're talking about?

"While the current pilot version of City Streets is still in a validation and review stage, we expect the functionality to remain largely unchanged in a future, full release to the customer fleet. We are analyzing the data obtained in the pilot and using it to refine the feature's operation and customer experience. We will continue to make refinements as necessary, and only after we are fully satisfied with performance, integrity, and safety will we release the feature to the customer fleet. That said, we do not expect significant enhancements in OEDR or other changes to the feature that would shift the responsibility for the entire DDT to the system. As such, a final release of City Streets will continue to be an SAE Level 2, advanced driver-assistance feature"

Also for context it says this right below that line:

"Please note that Tesla's development of true autonomous features (SAE Levels 3+) will follow our iterative process (development, validation, early release, etc.) and any such features will not be released to the general public until we have fully validated them and received any required regulatory permits or approvals."

If you agree this is the quote, what I'm saying is you changed City Streets to FSD. If you read the whole thing they also call it FSD City Streets. They also say things like "In the case of City Streets (and all other existing FSD features)" On the website it's called Autosteer on City Streets. It's very important in this case because Tesla is saying is this is one L2 feature that is part of a bunch of other L2 features. The regulators are concerned that Tesla is testing Autonomous Cars without a proper license. Tesla's lawyers are responding that by saying its an L2 feature. The regulators keep asking questions about what's going to happen in the future and the lawyers keep saying we're talking L2. Then they add we'll let you know before we get to L3+. as you can see above The interesting part of this is whether Tesla is actually testing autonomous cars that aren't registered as autonomous cars. In no way is Tesla saying they will never achieve full autonomy. They are simply trying to prevent regulators from not allowing them to release Autosteer on City Streets as a L2 feature and keep FSD Beta in the hands of customers.

If you're referring to something else Tesla said please reference the quotes and the context. I'm just trying to separate out your opinion from what Tesla has said.


----------



## Wooloomooloo

M3OC Rules said:


> Also for context it says this right below that line:
> 
> "Please note that Tesla's development of true autonomous features (SAE Levels 3+) will follow our iterative process (development, validation, early release, etc.) and any such features will not be released to the general public until we have fully validated them and received any required regulatory permits or approvals."
> 
> If you agree this is the quote, what I'm saying is you changed City Streets to FSD.


We will likely interpret this differently. For me, this is Tesla leaving the marketing door open, while keeping the door closed on the regulator. Smart on their part, IMO.

However, back to objective reality, the question really is whether their journey to true full (driverless, situation agnostic, weather proof) autonomy will be truly iterative. So the hardware will remain the same, the basic algorithms will be the same and just improve in terms of recognition and response, and all of this can be achieved with low resolution cameras and short range radar, and similar computing power to a high-end phone.

Many would argue yes, and if you trust Musk then that seems fair.

But if you believe the hardware will change significantly (just like it has done 3 times before) and the recognition software will be re-written from scratch (like it has at least 3 times before), then you might argue no, because you might believe that this level of autonomy is well beyond today's technology.

I hope yes, but I believe no. Yet I still paid for it!


----------



## DocScott

slacker775 said:


> In many regards, the only thing really separating an L3 or L4 implementation from L5 is the part where the driver needs to be present for a potential scenario that may or may not occur in a time period.


I'm not as expert on this as some at TOO, but my understanding is that L4 does _not_ necessarily require a driver present. Those trams that toodle around on closed campuses are L4, and they don't have a driver--sometimes they don't even have passengers. The difference between L4 and L5 is whether the conditions it can operate in are more limited than for a human driver (in my example, they need to stay on the closed campus). L3 is the last level that requires a human driver to be present.


----------



## Garlan Garner

shareef777 said:


> We don't have hands free ANYTHING!
> 
> NoA on the highway requires you to have hands on the wheel. Summon requires you to have eyes on your vehicle. We need to supervise EVERYTHING our vehicles do!


Really? I didn't think I would have to discuss "wheel shake".

I agree that TESLA instituted a "shake the wheel" function.

I have 91K miles on my car. About 88k of it is has been FSD - from 2018 till now. I am intimately familiar with "wheel shake". However - I don't think that if Tesla turned it off.....my vehicle would have navigated any differently at any time. In other words....if they never had wheel shake......my car would have been just fine.

"Wheel shake" is semantics as I have evaluated the function of FSD over the last 2 years. "Wheel shake" is not really necessary as it pertains to the function of FSD. FSD would work just fine without "wheel shake"

I went to Memphis TN a few weeks ago just moving the volume roller with no wheel shake. No "wheel shake". No holding the steering wheel on the expressway or anything....the whole way.


----------



## shareef777

Garlan Garner said:


> Really? I didn't think I would have to discuss "wheel shake".
> 
> I agree that TESLA instituted a "shake the wheel" function.
> 
> I have 91K miles on my car. About 88k of it is has been FSD - from 2018 till now. I am intimately familiar with "wheel shake". However - I don't think that if Tesla turned it off.....my vehicle would have navigated any differently at any time. In other words....if they never had wheel shake......my car would have been just fine.
> 
> "Wheel shake" is semantics as I have evaluated the function of FSD over the last 2 years. "Wheel shake" is not really necessary as it pertains to the function of FSD. FSD would work just fine without "wheel shake"
> 
> I went to Memphis TN a few weeks ago just moving the volume roller with no wheel shake. No "wheel shake". No holding the steering wheel on the expressway or anything....the whole way.


cool, in the two years I've used AP, NoA my car would look like it rolled out of a demolition derby if I didn't keep my hands on the wheel.


----------



## Garlan Garner

shareef777 said:


> cool, in the two years I've used AP, NoA my car would look like it rolled out of a demolition derby if I didn't keep my hands on the wheel.


I suppose our vehicles are just different somehow.

I don't know......

I've watched the version of FSD that I have improve vastly over the past 2 years, but somehow mine was never dangerous. Well....once it was.
One time in 2018 it took a turn on the expressway without slowing down. That was kinda scary, but update after update has gotten everything smooth as silk.

Like I said. I just went from Chicago to Memphis about a month ago only touching the volume - one click up and one click down.....the whole way.


----------



## shareef777

Garlan Garner said:


> I suppose our vehicles are just different somehow.
> 
> I don't know......
> 
> I've watched the version of FSD that I have improve vastly over the past 2 years, but somehow mine was never dangerous. Well....once it was.
> One time in 2018 it took a turn on the expressway without slowing down. That was kinda scary, but update after update has gotten everything smooth as silk.
> 
> Like I said. I just went from Chicago to Memphis about a month ago only touching the volume - one click up and one click down.....the whole way.


I drove from Chicago to Durham, NC and had the same experience. My 3 did pretty much 100% of the driving and I only took over on the on/off ramps. Was surreal as it'd choose the ramps itself based off the state of charge and how far I can get to the next super charger.

With that said, there's a stretch of highway where I355 turns into I290. The lines were very faded and can barely be made out (section that had an underpass). My 3 would go from I80 all the way to I290 without issue till it hit that small patch. It'd go bonkers and start swerving left and right. Happened 100% of the time. Got to the point where I'd disable NoA just before that section and I'd re-enable it right after. In its defense, the markings were pretty much non-existent. Human drivers would use context of the barriers or other markings to stay within the lane (or at least close enough), but the FSD computer just couldn't make up its mind. Haven't been to that area since late 2019 so not sure how it is now.

Somewhat related, small patch of road by my house is now showing up as 30mph in my 3. From the day I bought my car (over 2 years ago) it has been 100% correct on that road till a couple weeks ago. Google maps still shows the correct speed of 40mph. It's these types of issues that make me reluctant to believe FSD would be coming any time soon.


----------



## Wooloomooloo

With AP and NOA, I've had good and bad experiences. If my wife is with me in the car, I never use it because of phantom braking which startles the passengers. It is now getting pretty pretictable - for example after overtaking and returning to the center lane or right hand lane from a passing, lane, the car sometimes slams the brakes on if there's a merging lane. It's done this ever since Version 8! 

If I am alone, I will use it a lot more - today I went about 40 miles on the highway to drop the car off (for a new PCS) and just left it on NOA the entire time. It only braked once (cars merging) when it should not have, so not bad.


----------



## Long Ranger

DocScott said:


> I'm not as expert on this as some at TOO, but my understanding is that L4 does _not_ necessarily require a driver present. Those trams that toodle around on closed campuses are L4, and they don't have a driver--sometimes they don't even have passengers. The difference between L4 and L5 is whether the conditions it can operate in are more limited than for a human driver (in my example, they need to stay on the closed campus). L3 is the last level that requires a human driver to be present.


Yep, that's exactly right. Everyone talks about L5, but the transition from L3 to L4 is where the vehicle can no longer rely on there being a driver to get out of an unexpected situation.

Here's an excerpt from SAE J3016 (DDT = Dynamic Driving Task):

"At level 3, an ADS is capable of continuing to perform the DDT for at least several seconds after providing the fallback-ready user with a request to intervene. The DDT fallback-ready user is then expected to achieve a minimal risk condition if s/he determines it to be necessary."

"At levels 4 and 5, the ADS must be capable of performing the DDT fallback and achieving a minimal risk condition. Level 4 and 5 ADS-equipped vehicles that are designed to also accommodate operation by a driver (whether conventional or remote) may allow a user to perform the DDT fallback if s/he chooses to do so. However, a level 4 or 5 ADS need not be designed to allow a user to perform DDT fallback and, indeed, may be designed to disallow it in order to reduce crash risk"


----------



## Kimmo57

Garlan Garner said:


> Pure vision has been working. No accidents.


So far pure vision often drops the AP from working.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Kimmo57 said:


> So far pure vision often drops the AP from working.


There have been no accidents though.

It must be recovering quick enough "IF" what you are saying is true.


----------



## Kimmo57

Garlan Garner said:


> There have been no accidents though.
> 
> It must be recovering quick enough "IF" what you are saying is true.


When the cameras are blinded by sun or blocked by dirt or mist, the AP is available on and off -or not at all. Of course there's a notification, when it's not. When it's not available, possible accidents won't be blamed on the AP.


----------



## garsh

Kimmo57 said:


> When the cameras are blinded by sun or blocked by dirt or mist, the AP is available on and off -or not at all. Of course there's a notification, when it's not. When it's not available, possible accidents won't be blamed on the AP.


This thread is about FSD. Please stay on-topic.
There are other threads for discussing AP.


----------



## Needsdecaf

At this point in time, Tesla can put out programming knowing that, legally, you're supposed to be monitoring the car and that if some edge case comes up, you take over and save it. The wheel shake exists because it gives Tesla the out. The legal onus is on you. Once that goes away (or any driver monitor) Tesla must accept liability in case of a crash. 

That is a huge, huge step. Both engineering AND legally. 

Sure, can the car drive itself "most of the time"? Yes. But that's not enough. That's only 95% or 99% or 99.9% of the way there. As Elon has said himself, you need more 9's. Tesla clearly is skating the line calling FSD a L2 ADAS in all official documents, entirely to avoid any legal responsibility for what happens when FSD is operating. And that's not a bad thing, but that last few tenths of a percent is where the money is made....or lost.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Its going to be interesting to see how many people hit the

"Give me FSD beta local streets to go along with my FSD highway " button when it comes out next month or so. 

I predict that it's gonna be a huge number. 


I wonder how many won't hit the button.


----------



## Needsdecaf

shareef777 said:


> With that said, there's a stretch of highway where I355 turns into I290. The lines were very faded and can barely be made out (section that had an underpass). My 3 would go from I80 all the way to I290 without issue till it hit that small patch. It'd go bonkers and start swerving left and right. Happened 100% of the time. Got to the point where I'd disable NoA just before that section and I'd re-enable it right after. In its defense, the markings were pretty much non-existent. Human drivers would use context of the barriers or other markings to stay within the lane (or at least close enough), but the FSD computer just couldn't make up its mind. Haven't been to that area since late 2019 so not sure how it is now.
> 
> Somewhat related, small patch of road by my house is now showing up as 30mph in my 3. From the day I bought my car (over 2 years ago) it has been 100% correct on that road till a couple weeks ago. Google maps still shows the correct speed of 40mph. It's these types of issues that make me reluctant to believe FSD would be coming any time soon.


Sandy Munro tried to give Tesla the pass in his interview with Elon, saying that when he had problems with NOA "the car wasn't wrong, the lines were". Elon correctly pointed out to him that "no, the car is still wrong, we have to be able to get it right even when there are no lines". (paraphrasing).

He's right.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Needsdecaf said:


> At this point in time, Tesla can put out programming knowing that, legally, you're supposed to be monitoring the car and that if some edge case comes up, you take over and save it. The wheel shake exists because it gives Tesla the out. The legal onus is on you. Once that goes away (or any driver monitor) Tesla must accept liability in case of a crash.
> 
> That is a huge, huge step. Both engineering AND legally.
> 
> Sure, can the car drive itself "most of the time"? Yes. But that's not enough. That's only 95% or 99% or 99.9% of the way there. As Elon has said himself, you need more 9's. Tesla clearly is skating the line calling FSD a L2 ADAS in all official documents, entirely to avoid any legal responsibility for what happens when FSD is operating. And that's not a bad thing, but that last few tenths of a percent is where the money is made....or lost.


Cadillac's Super Cruise also puts the responsibility on the driver's attention. They handle it another way....but the responsibility is still on the driver as well
I'm comparing Super Cruise to FSD because I'm wondering if Tesla is really off base with FSD.

I wonder if Cadillac saved themselves a TON of scrutiny by simply having the word "cruise" in the title instead of FSD. They indeed call it "hands free" in the description.

Lastly for $6,150 Super Cruise it has less than half the features of FSD local + highway. Super Cruise can not be used locally at all....and will not be updated to do so.

I can't find another available "hands free" system to compare FSD to.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Garlan Garner said:


> Cadillac's Super Cruise also puts the responsibility on the driver's attention. They handle it another way....but the responsibility is still on the driver as well
> I'm comparing Super Cruise to FSD because I'm wondering if Tesla is really off base with FSD.
> 
> I wonder if Cadillac saved themselves a TON of scrutiny by simply having the word "cruise" in the title instead of FSD. They indeed call it "hands free" in the description.
> 
> Lastly for $6,150 Super Cruise it has less than half the features of FSD local + highway. Super Cruise can not be used locally at all....and will not be updated to do so.
> 
> I can't find another available "hands free" system to compare FSD to.


Ford's system will be hands off soon. But hands off is not eyes off. There is eye tracking, in the same way that AP / FSD nags you at the wheel. So it still requires driver monitoring.

I think FSD invites scrutiny because of the name, but further because Elon keeps making promises like "drive across the country to pick you up" and "sleep in your car". He has said the car will be capable of that, and gave dates in the past. I think that has caused more controversy than anything.

I wish, as I think you do as well, that Elon would STFU with this stuff. It paints a target. I believe he thinks it motivates the team to improve, and perhaps it has. But at what cost. He has painted an enormous target on Tesla's back, one which I think the did not need. The product stands on it's own. It does not need his hype.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Needsdecaf said:


> Ford's system will be hands off soon. But hands off is not eyes off. There is eye tracking, in the same way that AP / FSD nags you at the wheel. So it still requires driver monitoring.
> 
> I think FSD invites scrutiny because of the name, but further because Elon keeps making promises like "drive across the country to pick you up" and "sleep in your car". He has said the car will be capable of that, and gave dates in the past. I think that has caused more controversy than anything.
> 
> I wish, as I think you do as well, that Elon would STFU with this stuff. It paints a target. I believe he thinks it motivates the team to improve, and perhaps it has. But at what cost. He has painted an enormous target on Tesla's back, one which I think the did not need. The product stands on it's own. It does not need his hype.


Yes indeed.

I have said it before that Elon should not make the statements that he does. He doesn't have good radar on what to say tweet.

The problem is that Tesla probably wouldn't exist if he didn't say stuff like that across the board. He probably is 99% correct in making these types of statements and predictions in his life, but...... the 1% of being wrong includes FSD. I just don't think its intentional. I know many disagree, but I think he really believes his statements. He is just dead wrong...not deceitful IMO.


----------



## DocScott

Needsdecaf said:


> Sandy Munro tried to give Tesla the pass in his interview with Elon, saying that when he had problems with NOA "the car wasn't wrong, the lines were". Elon correctly pointed out to him that "no, the car is still wrong, we have to be able to get it right even when there are no lines". (paraphrasing).
> 
> He's right.


Yes, although I also agree with Sandy. Car manufacturers really should be prodding governments (from national down to local) to make road markings friendlier to both autonomous vehicles and driver-assist systems. As an example, enough with these signs with the complicated conditions written on them (speed limits that change with time of day or whether school is in session or whatever). If there's enough money to put up those signs with the radar-determined speeds ("your speed is x, slow down!"), then there's certainly enough money to put up an electronic sign that just tells you what the speed limit is _at that particular time_. No need to try to remember if, for example, it's a school holiday!

Those kinds of changes would benefit unassisted human drivers too.


----------



## Kimmo57

garsh said:


> This thread is about FSD. Please stay on-topic.
> There are other threads for discussing AP.


It is on topic. Similarly FSD won't work with vision alone when the cameras are out.


----------



## garsh

DocScott said:


> Yes, although I also agree with Sandy. Car manufacturers really should be prodding governments (from national down to local) to make road markings friendlier to both autonomous vehicles and driver-assist systems.


Hell, they should just fix road markings so that PEOPLE don't get confused. If you're not from a particular area, some of these area-specific idiosyncrasies can be downright confusing to ME, let alone an autonomous vehicle. 🧓


----------



## GDN

garsh said:


> Hell, they should just fix road markings so that PEOPLE don't get confused. If you're not from a particular area, some of these area-specific idiosyncrasies can be downright confusing to ME, let alone an autonomous vehicle. 🧓


See the thread about road taxes not being collected on EV's. I'm guessing they could blame not enough revenue from the taxes these days to accomplish that maintenance.


----------



## iChris93

Just a new tweet to be disappointed by.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1373145910549483522


----------



## FRC

Wow! Elon is "hoping" for next month? Is this an improved Elon who has learned his lesson about false promises? Or is implementation so far off that even Elon is scared to put a date on it?

I'm hopeful it's the former, and terrified it's the latter.


----------



## iChris93

iChris93 said:


> How long can something be in beta when there is no evidence of improvement?




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1372975494451187714


----------



## shareef777

iChris93 said:


> Just a new tweet to be disappointed by.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1373145910549483522


Still waiting for an Elon tweet to reference "Elon Standard Time". He's gotta be self aware by now!


----------



## shareef777

iChris93 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1372975494451187714


"Beta" tag should be changed to "can't sue me"


----------



## iChris93

shareef777 said:


> "Beta" tag should be changed to "can't sue me"


and add "no longer under development"


----------



## DocScott

shareef777 said:


> "Beta" tag should be changed to "can't sue me"


Yup.

Note that the Green Traffic Light Chime is _not _marked as beta, even though it's among the more recent and less robust of those features. Why? Presumably because it doesn't actually control the car, and so they're not as worried about lawsuits.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Tesla should never remove the word beta from anything. 

Why should they? What would be the benefit?


----------



## iChris93

Garlan Garner said:


> Tesla should never remove the word beta from anything.
> 
> Why should they? What would be the benefit?


Yeah, they should only add beta! FSD beta beta beta!


----------



## DocScott

Garlan Garner said:


> Tesla should never remove the word beta from anything.
> 
> Why should they? What would be the benefit?


It might help lower insurance rates (from non-Tesla insurance). Even if the beta features in AP, for example, are shown to increase in safety, what insurance company is going to want to provide a discount for a feature identified as beta?

It also might be helpful for regulators in some areas. Certain AP and FSD features are restricted in some countries. The argument for lifting or modifying those restrictions is much weaker if the features remain beta.


----------



## Garlan Garner

If Tesla competition and Tesla owners are saying the same thing.....then what do you have?

Ford spokeperson calls Tesla's Full Self-Driving 'vaporware' - Electrek

Electrek needs to check their spelling.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1373645687905157126


----------



## Madmolecule

Garlan Garner said:


> Hmmmm..... the competition sounds like......
> 
> Ford spokeperson calls Tesla's Full Self-Driving 'vaporware' - Electrek
> 
> Electrek needs to check their spelling.


They need a new name for it because it can't be vaporware because they are actually selling it. Hopefully it is being written and not just still designed. But a real Beta is typically the finished product that is just being debugged. Have they posted any videos of what the final version of FSD interface will look like. Will it still have all the crayon dashes or is that just for testing? We have acknowledged we are using beta all over the display. But tesla games I am not a safe and have a driver to use what I have paid for. I still believe 100% and has nothing to do with safe driving but only safe from ridicule on the web.

va·por·ware
/ˈvāpərˌwer/
_noun_
INFORMAL•COMPUTING

software or hardware that has been advertised but is not yet available to buy, either because it is only a concept or because it is still being written or designed.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Madmolecule said:


> They need a new name for it because it can't be vaporware because they are actually selling it. Hopefully it is being written and not just still designed. But a real Beta is typically the finished product that is just being debugged. Have they posted any videos of what the final version of FSD interface will look like. Will it still have all the crayon dashes or is that just for testing? We have acknowledged we are using beta all over the display. But tesla games I am not a safe and have a driver to use what I have paid for. I still believe 100% and has nothing to do with safe driving but only safe from ridicule on the web.
> 
> va·por·ware
> /ˈvāpərˌwer/
> _noun_
> INFORMAL•COMPUTING
> 
> software or hardware that has been advertised but is not yet available to buy, either because it is only a concept or because it is still being written or designed.


You are correct.

However the larger focus might be that the premise between the competition and owners sounds identical.

Save your $10k and don't buy FSD.

Let some other company do it.


----------



## GDN

No one ever twisted anyones arm to pay for it. It is vaporware, and you know it is and you know it was when it was purchased. You bought into the future with no guarantee. I do figure there could come a day that someone will likely start a class action suit against Tesla. It will all boil down to what was noted it should some day do and what it does - someday. Oh wait, when is someday. Some of those early S buyers from years ago would like to know too.


----------



## Garlan Garner

GDN said:


> No one ever twisted anyones arm to pay for it. It is vaporware, and you know it is and you know it was when it was purchased. You bought into the future with no guarantee. I do figure there could come a day that someone will likely start a class action suit against Tesla. It will all boil down to what was noted it should some day do and what it does - someday. Oh wait, when is someday. Some of those early S buyers from years ago would like to know too.


You are right

I purchased FSD with full understanding of what I was getting. I watched countless youtube videos of what FSD was doing at the time of purchase and I wanted it.

I For Sure wanted EAP at that time.....and an extra $3k for FSD was a no brainer.

over 88k miles of the expressway half of FSD driving me on the expressway. That's 88 thousand miles and counting.

I'm good.

FSD local is going to be icing on the cake.


----------



## francoisp

Garlan Garner said:


> You are right
> 
> I purchased FSD with full understanding of what I was getting. I watched countless youtube videos of what FSD was doing at the time of purchase and I wanted it.
> 
> I For Sure wanted EAP at that time.....and an extra $3k for FSD was a no brainer.
> 
> over 88k miles of the expressway half of FSD driving me on the expressway. That's 88 thousand miles and counting.
> 
> I'm good.


What we have now is not FSD. FSD stands for full self driving the key word here being "full". Until the car can take me hands free from my home to my destination I'll keep calling it Autopilot. Yes it does a good job on freeways but that's it.


----------



## Garlan Garner

francoisp said:


> What we have now is not FSD. FSD stands for full self driving the key word here being "full". Until the car can take me hands free from my home to my destination I'll keep calling it Autopilot. Yes it does a good job on freeways but that's it.


What someone calls what I bought at the time of purchase isn't very important.

I call it FSD because that's what it says on my Maroney sticker.

Whatever its called- is been fantastic. $88k miles so far and I only paid $8k for it.

That's $0.09 per mile - safe and sound. What a deal.

It'll only get cheaper per mile as time goes forward.


----------



## francoisp

Garlan Garner said:


> What someone calls what I bought at the time of purchase isn't very important.
> 
> I call it FSD because that's what it says on my Maroney sticker.
> 
> Whatever its called- is been fantastic. $88k miles so far and I only paid $8k for it.
> 
> That's $0.09 per mile - safe and sound. What a deal.
> 
> It'll only get cheaper per mile as time goes forward.


Anyone that buys a Tesla today gets to enjoy hands free driving on highway without spending $10k for FSD. Okay they don't get the EAP features but that's $0 per mile.

I think FSD should be reserved for when we have true handsfree driving from the moment we step in the car to the moment we step out.


----------



## M3OC Rules

francoisp said:


> Anyone that buys a Tesla today gets to enjoy hands free driving on highway without spending $10k for FSD. Okay they don't get the EAP features but that's $0 per mile.
> 
> I think FSD should be reserved for when we have true handsfree driving from the moment we step in the car to the moment we step out.


That's what they are selling and if they don't deliver that they can't blame people for being upset. This is a big deal for the stock price as well. They are selling/sold us they will achieve robotaxis.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Well @M3OC Rules and @francoisp.

From the article that I posted above from Ford....will you discourage people from buying FSD as Ford and the competition suggests?

Do you feel its a good thing for both owners / potential buyers / competition and everyone else to help people NOT get FSD and let another vendor be the first to FSD?

Oh well..... I believe Tesla in that once the function fits the name - its certainly going to be more expensive. I really hope its sellin' and that the day Tesla pushes the button....there will be hundreds of thousands to millions of vehicles on the road all driving themselves. Its going to be so much safer.


----------



## Madmolecule

I would love to believe in the fantasy of full self driving and I have for a few years now. I think it's time for a reality check. It is very clear that full self driving will never be delivered for my 2018 Tesla model 3. Never ever. I wonder what the schedule is for the other products to come out of beta. Will I ever be provided with auto pilot or summon for my vehicle? Elon has missed his chance to back up as promised that the early adopters would get these upgrades first. That was a lie. When software is a beta it is nothing more than a tease and a continued promotion for a product that one day you might get. There is a product that I paid full price for and I do believe they owe me something for that. Stock would be nice since we were the original long investors for a Tesla. It's all wishful thinking because Tesla is being run like a real company now and they will become stagnant like every other real company.

"[A] final release of City Streets will continue to be an SAE Level 2, advanced driver-assistance feature," continued Williams. "Please note that Tesla's development of true autonomous features (SAE Levels 3+) will follow our iterative process (development, validation, early release, etc.) and any such features will not be released to the general public until we have fully validated them and received any required regulatory permits or approvals."

they are only testing the alpha of city streets, which will be hopefully released this year but I don't think there is a chance that it will be released as a non-beta product that is extremely handicapped in 2020. But full self driving it is not. It seems like level 3+ is still under design and being written and might not even be funded. I think Tesla is focusing there are indeed budget on giga presses and manufacturing and not software development.

I was under the impression that once I got my hardware upgrade that was the only thing holding up the FSD software. Now it turns out that the traffic cones weren't even part of the hardware upgrade. The visualizations are provided for even the old hardware. Is my computer running 2000 times faster or whatever they touted, or was this just another delay trick to buy patients? Do you think this bad ass computer could at least show album art?

As I said months ago, FSD will not be released in 2020. not even the beta in a release to all owners of the product. The Board of Directors realize it is the only thing that can tank Tesla in 2020.

In two months Elon has not even been able to determine if the early adopters can add boombox. Still enjoying that Christmas release. I'm not saying they owe it to me but you would think they would have a price to purchase the module And speaker. Or at least allow third-party manufacturers to produce one. Instead they're focused on sending cease-and-desist letters to vendors. If they can't make boom box work on my model three I'm supposed to believe the fantasy of FSD.

Elon electrify Cuba!


----------



## francoisp

Garlan Garner said:


> Well @M3OC Rules and @francoisp.
> 
> From the article that I posted above from Ford....will you discourage people from buying FSD as Ford and the competition suggests?
> 
> Do you feel its a good thing for both owners / potential buyers / competition and everyone else to help people NOT get FSD and let another vendor be the first to FSD?
> 
> Oh well..... I believe Tesla in that once the function fits the name - its certainly going to be more expensive. I really hope its sellin' and that the day Tesla pushes the button....there will be hundreds of thousands to millions of vehicles on the road all driving themselves. Its going to be so much safer.


I for one agree that Autopilot makes driving safer and the time spent in the car more relaxing and enjoyable. All I'm saying is that what we have today is not FSD and shouldn't be called FSD until that time when the car can pick me up at home and drive me to my destination with no input from me.


----------



## Garlan Garner

francoisp said:


> I for one agree that Autopilot makes driving safer and the time spent in the car more relaxing and enjoyable. All I'm saying is that what we have today is not FSD and shouldn't be called FSD until that time when the car can pick me up at home and drive me to my destination with no input from me.


Fair enough.

So...the problem is the name of the feature?

Maybe that's why Cadillac isn't having a problem with their customers with "Super Cruise". I wonder what is going to happen when they achieve FSD.


----------



## nonStopSwagger

Garlan Garner said:


> Fair enough.
> 
> So...the problem is the name of the feature?
> 
> Maybe that's why Cadillac isn't having a problem with their customers with "Super Cruise". I wonder what is going to happen when they achieve FSD.


I don't know a whole lot about Cadillacs super Cruise, but I hope GM release level three self-driving soon.

Nothing like competition to spur innovation.


----------



## slacker775

From the little that I've seen with Super Cruise, it operates in the very typical legacy auto manufacturer fashion. What you get when you buy the vehicle is all that you are ever going to get. They fairly recently added lane change capability on highways but that was only available in the new model year going forward. So in some respects, it's not 'beta' on the vehicle that you have today, but it is most certainly 'final'. I'll take a potentially never-ending beta anyday. Besides, software is never really 'done' so you could always consider it beta in some manner.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Garlan Garner said:


> Fair enough.
> 
> So...the problem is the name of the feature?
> 
> Maybe that's why Cadillac isn't having a problem with their customers with "Super Cruise". I wonder what is going to happen when they achieve FSD.


The problem is not the name. The name describes what they are selling which is robotaxis or L5. Tesla calls the features you love so much Enhanced Autopilot. They are bundling Enhanced Autopilot with Full Self Driving. You essentially are getting nothing more than Enhanced Autopilot at this point.

You keep defending Tesla by talking about the value. I would argue that regardless of the value you can't promise one thing and deliver another. But if it's providing good value it helps. At this point one could make a pretty good argument its not worth more than $5k while they are charging $10k. Maybe once FSD Beta comes out that argument will change a little. You brought up the competition. First of all no one is claiming FSD like Tesla on cars you can buy. Mobileye says 2025. And there essentially aren't even any L3 cars and its not clear that will ever catch on. So lets talk L2. If other manufacturers make L2 features on par or better than Tesla you have competition which drives the cost down. This is a good thing. Supercruise is already being reviewed by many as better than Tesla Autopilot and costs $2500. Tesla can't just say they are the best, they have to deliver, especially if they are charging way more than the competition. I can't recommend FSD to people at $10k.


----------



## shareef777

M3OC Rules said:


> The problem is not the name. The name describes what they are selling which is robotaxis or L5. Tesla calls the features you love so much Enhanced Autopilot. They are bundling Enhanced Autopilot with Full Self Driving. You essentially are getting nothing more than Enhanced Autopilot at this point.
> 
> You keep defending Tesla by talking about the value. I would argue that regardless of the value you can't promise one thing and deliver another. But if it's providing good value it helps. At this point one could make a pretty good argument its not worth more than $5k while they are charging $10k. Maybe once FSD Beta comes out that argument will change a little. You brought up the competition. First of all no one is claiming FSD like Tesla on cars you can buy. Mobileye says 2025. And there essentially aren't even any L3 cars and its not clear that will ever catch on. So lets talk L2. If other manufacturers make L2 features on par or better than Tesla you have competition which drives the cost down. This is a good thing. Supercruise is already being reviewed by many as better than Tesla Autopilot and costs $2500. Tesla can't just say they are the best, they have to deliver, especially if they are charging way more than the competition. I can't recommend FSD to people at $10k.


At the end of the day we all bet various amounts on the "future". We were told that future WAS end of 2019, then 2020, then a TEASE of the future via a button that never came. As it stands they're 2+ years behind THEIR schedule on delivering goods for money received. ANY other company that late would be lambasted, but for some reason, some people can't help but look the other way. Critiquing ONE part of a business/person doesn't mean you don't support them, it just means they're fallible (like the rest of us) and should correct a mistake that was made.


----------



## walnotr

Back in 08/2018 when I purchased the car with FSD I didn’t expect the full functionality of FSD to happen anytime soon. Over the years, the functionality of the system has continued to improve. Soon (Elon time), the city streets iteration should start to roll out. I expect to remain hyper vigilant as the bugs get worked out and the NN improves. This is an epic problem to solve but I have confidence Tesla will crack the nut at some point. Would I love to see it happen tomorrow? Of course. It’s not going to happen because, as smart as the system promises to be, there will always be another problem to solve. As everyone says, it’s all about the 9’s. How many it will take is anybody’s guess at this point, even for the brains doing the development. Once DOJO is running, the 9’s should start being added quicker.
For the record, EAP and FSD have vastly improved from when I first drove the car.


----------



## RonAz

I got my Model 3 in Nov. of 2018. I bought Enhanced Autopilot because I liked what the package offered. Then along comes an upgrade offer at $2000 for a new computer which I viewed as future proofing. It also came with a performance upgrade and the ability to run FSD at some time in the future. I paid for hardware 3 computer with install and the software change for more performance. I got what I paid for I believe. If you were to buy these separately, it would surely cost this much or more. I viewed FSD at some time in the future as a freebie. I am not out anything and FSD is still promised for some time in the future. That price was only offered for a short time though I believe.


----------



## Nom

Deleted. Answered my own q.


----------



## DocScott

I think if people had an L3 system they'd really like it--but it doesn't _sound_ sexy to a lot of Tesla buyers, and it doesn't _sound_ safe to a lot of Cadillac drivers, so there's not a lot of consumer pressure to get it. But wow--if you could watch movies on a long trip on an interstate, that would really change long road trips, and if you could send emails while stuck in a traffic jam, that would really change commutes.

While I think either Tesla or Cadillac could push toward L3, since they don't seem to be doing it we may see it first in commercial vehicles, like tractor-trailers. Truckers would love L3, I think--by definition, they're not out of a job, but it would make the driving a lot less draining.


----------



## Garlan Garner

M3OC Rules said:


> The problem is not the name. The name describes what they are selling which is robotaxis or L5. Tesla calls the features you love so much Enhanced Autopilot. They are bundling Enhanced Autopilot with Full Self Driving. You essentially are getting nothing more than Enhanced Autopilot at this point.
> 
> You keep defending Tesla by talking about the value. I would argue that regardless of the value you can't promise one thing and deliver another. But if it's providing good value it helps. At this point one could make a pretty good argument its not worth more than $5k while they are charging $10k. Maybe once FSD Beta comes out that argument will change a little. You brought up the competition. First of all no one is claiming FSD like Tesla on cars you can buy. Mobileye says 2025. And there essentially aren't even any L3 cars and its not clear that will ever catch on. So lets talk L2. If other manufacturers make L2 features on par or better than Tesla you have competition which drives the cost down. This is a good thing. Supercruise is already being reviewed by many as better than Tesla Autopilot and costs $2500. Tesla can't just say they are the best, they have to deliver, especially if they are charging way more than the competition. I can't recommend FSD to people at $10k.


Tesla's safety record and Autopilot defended by longtime TSLA analyst (teslarati.com)


----------



## Needsdecaf

DocScott said:


> I think if people had an L3 system they'd really like it--but it doesn't _sound_ sexy to a lot of Tesla buyers, and it doesn't _sound_ safe to a lot of Cadillac drivers, so there's not a lot of consumer pressure to get it. But wow--if you could watch movies on a long trip on an interstate, that would really change long road trips, and if you could send emails while stuck in a traffic jam, that would really change commutes.
> 
> While I think either Tesla or Cadillac could push toward L3, since they don't seem to be doing it we may see it first in commercial vehicles, like tractor-trailers. Truckers would love L3, I think--by definition, they're not out of a job, but it would make the driving a lot less draining.


I would be perfectly happy with a Level 3, highway only system. With NOA that actually worked like a normal human drives. That would be absolutely perfect. And, as you say, enough for 99.9% of the people.

As I've said before, ADAS are supposed to reduce stress. A L2 city streets system where you need to remain hyper vigilant for not only a computer error in judgement but an edge case popping up suddenly? No thanks. That doesn't sound less stressful to me. Sounds more stressful to me. I believe this point remains constantly overlooked. People remain focused on the "cool factor" of "can it actually do this" and have lost sight of "is this a feature that will make my life easier".

As for safety? LDW, Collision avoidance, etc. when done properly is more than enough to keep even a poor driver out of trouble without that driver having to rescue the car from it's less than smart decisions.


----------



## Wooloomooloo

iChris93 said:


> How long can something be in beta when there is no evidence of improvement?


You don't remember Gmail do you? It was in beta for just a little over 5 years.


----------



## iChris93

Wooloomooloo said:


> You don't remember Gmail do you? It was in beta for just a little over 5 years.


Did it evolve over those 5 years?


----------



## Wooloomooloo

iChris93 said:


> Did it evolve over those 5 years?


I honestly can't remember all of the updates over that time period, but yes it improved pretty rapidly in those early years. I was a pretty early adopter (mid 2004), but actually their reasons for keeping it in extended beta are not entirely different from what could potentially be Tesla's reasoning for doing the same, which is the level of dependability they're willing to support. Google didn't have to worry about major outages impacting critical business functions for example, or even data loss. In fact it's largely known the reason they actually came out of Beta was to roll-out corporate email capability when Android started to take off in 2009.


----------



## Madmolecule

slacker775 said:


> Besides, software is never really 'done' so you could always consider it beta in some manner.


It I s only done when they've given up on that version and moved onto the next Version that supports the latest hardware. I don't believe that they will be still developing software for version 2.5 computers. I am worried they will stop focusing on version 3 computers that are not boombox compatible, whatever that means. I do really like the earlier comment that tesla should've just focused on highway automation at city streets seem to be a pipe dream. I tried salmon at the park a couple days ago with the latest version of software and it was pitiful. It was basically just too shy and just block traffic. It was sunny but may be too sunny. These are things that now become a parent with FSD. Will your car just stop because it was too sunny and a camera was blocked. I thought the original concept on the semi's was they do mainly highway automation, and use the drivers for last mile. I don't know if FSD it was over aggressive engineering or just marketing hype to get over the FUD of electric vehicles. Once they release FSDN the next generation I'm afraid we will all be left in the dust. I did see an original roadster at the Tesla service center the other day, and yes everything ages and people have probably stopped asking if it's for sale. Plus there's no reason to there's a new roadster allegedly coming out that will solve all of its issues. Was it a wonder of engineering, or just a lot of marketing hype to get the ball rolling towards EV 's. Without the roadster we would've never had the model S, And without us folks busing FSD we would never get to FSDN

Traditionally cars were provided with what you got and there was no upgrade. That was extremely frustraining when I bought a BMW for his iPhone capability and within a year it was no longer compatible with the new iPhones and it cannot be upgraded. But I don't know if we're really any better off having a vehicle sold with less than alpha software and it eventually reaches beta at some point. Mine has improved over the last couple years but that was non-functioning scary to somewhat capable. It certainly hasn't reached the value I've paid for it and it is far from an investment that will ever appreciate.

I worry about simple things even like when they will stop updating the maps on the older version computers if the new navigation system for example requires a more powerful computer.

Since Tesla is going to rely solely on cameras you would think they would add more options to calibrate your vehicle. At super charging stations they should have a couple stalls with fixed objects, text, lights etc. that the cameras could re-calibrate while your vehicle is charging.

Since Tesla is basically batteries and a computer, I don't know which will be worse in resale in the future used batteries or an outdated used computer.


----------



## BobDole

Keep in mind tesla has supplied the ability to upgrade most processor based hardware


----------



## SkipperOFMO

M3OC Rules said:


> The problem is not the name. The name describes what they are selling which is robotaxis or L5. Tesla calls the features you love so much Enhanced Autopilot. They are bundling Enhanced Autopilot with Full Self Driving. You essentially are getting nothing more than Enhanced Autopilot at this point.
> 
> You keep defending Tesla by talking about the value. I would argue that regardless of the value you can't promise one thing and deliver another. But if it's providing good value it helps. At this point one could make a pretty good argument its not worth more than $5k while they are charging $10k. Maybe once FSD Beta comes out that argument will change a little. You brought up the competition. First of all no one is claiming FSD like Tesla on cars you can buy. Mobileye says 2025. And there essentially aren't even any L3 cars and its not clear that will ever catch on. So lets talk L2. If other manufacturers make L2 features on par or better than Tesla you have competition which drives the cost down. This is a good thing. Supercruise is already being reviewed by many as better than Tesla Autopilot and costs $2500. Tesla can't just say they are the best, they have to deliver, especially if they are charging way more than the competition. I can't recommend FSD to people at $10k.


You failed to mention Super Cuise is only available on roads they've mapped and costs more than Autopilot.


----------



## TesLou

SkipperOFMO said:


> You failed to mention Super Cuise is only available on roads they've mapped and costs more than Autopilot.


And, unlike Autopilot, is EXTREMELY unreliable in construction zones.


----------



## Bigriver

BobDole said:


> Keep in mind tesla has supplied the ability to upgrade most processor based hardware


Just curious what you are specifically thinking of when you say this.


----------



## M3OC Rules

SkipperOFMO said:


> You failed to mention Super Cuise is only available on roads they've mapped and costs more than Autopilot.


Sorry. I wasn't trying to do a full review of Super Cruise vs Autopilot. The point is its hard to justify $10k if you don't get above a L3 system and the L2 competition is getting better. Something will give eventually. The quickest way would be if everyone stopped buying FSD so they bring back EAP.


----------



## Diamond.g

M3OC Rules said:


> Sorry. I wasn't trying to do a full review of Super Cruise vs Autopilot. The point is its hard to justify $10k if you don't get above a L3 system and the L2 competition is getting better. Something will give eventually. The quickest way would be if everyone stopped buying FSD so they bring back EAP.


I don't think that would bring EAP back. They did a bunch of shuffling because folks complained that you paid 5k to get EAP or got nothing and they wanted the lane keeping and TACC but not the other stuff.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Diamond.g said:


> I don't think that would bring EAP back. They did a bunch of shuffling because folks complained that you paid 5k to get EAP or got nothing and they wanted the lane keeping and TACC but not the other stuff.


Smartest thing they ever did was get rid of EAP after making AP standard. I mean...why spend $10k when for $5k you can get all the same features? Just so you won't have to worry about paying "more" in the future? Psssh.


----------



## Diamond.g

Needsdecaf said:


> Smartest thing they ever did was get rid of EAP after making AP standard. I mean...why spend $10k when for $5k you can get all the same features? Just so you won't have to worry about paying "more" in the future? Psssh.


I actually wouldn't be surprised to see them stop selling FSD if they can get City Streets working well and go for a pure subscription style like Porsche.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Diamond.g said:


> I actually wouldn't be surprised to see them stop selling FSD if they can get City Streets working well and go for a pure subscription style like Porsche.


Ha. That was my next question and you beat me to it. They will get some info on how well the subscriptions work pretty soon here.


----------



## Garlan Garner

Thanks Steven for the following video. Andrej Karpathy is fantastic in his explanation of his product and the difference between Tesla and everyone else.

(7) Tesla's Director Of AI Shares Secrets Of Full Self Driving - YouTube

wanna get deeper? check this out.

(7) Andrej Karpathy - AI for Full-Self Driving at Tesla - YouTube

What's most interesting to me is that GM and all others can view these videos and how Tesla is forming its FSD and AI strategy - directly from Tesla's Engineers. I can't find videos of Cadillacs engineers showing their AI technology design.


----------



## Garlan Garner

I have a question:

Does EAP have speed limit sign recognition? 

We have an amazing amount of signs on the side of our roads/streets. Whats amazing is that my car is 100% accurately picking out speed limit signs only from all of them. It must be reading ( via camera ) the words on the sign from at least 100+ feet away - that is only "x" number if pixels large at that distance. Amazing.


----------



## francoisp

Garlan Garner said:


> I have a question:
> 
> Does EAP have speed limit sign recognition?


Yes. The only difference with FSD at the moment is that EAP doesn't obey stop signs and traffic lights.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Diamond.g said:


> I actually wouldn't be surprised to see them stop selling FSD if they can get City Streets working well and go for a pure subscription style like Porsche.


You would think that makes more sense. But Elon has beat the "it'll be cheaper in the long run to buy it outright" drum so loud and long I'm not sure they can go back.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Garlan Garner said:


> I have a question:
> 
> Does EAP have speed limit sign recognition?
> 
> We have an amazing amount of signs on the side of our roads/streets. Whats amazing is that my car is 100% accurately picking out speed limit signs only from all of them. It must be reading ( via camera ) the words on the sign from at least 100+ feet away - that is only "x" number if pixels large at that distance. Amazing.


All HW 3 cars have this, regardless if you have basic AP, opted for the EAP when it came back, or got FSD.

I find that my recognition depends on how far the sign is off the road. There are some roadways here in TX where, because of ditches, extra wide shoulders, etc, the sign is quite far off the right side of the road. This one, in particular, will NEVER get read if I'm in the left lane, and only sometimes in the right lane. Annoying, because this is a limit shift from 40 to 60 and the next sign isn't for like 2 more miles, so Autosteer is limited to 45 here when in reality it should be 65.

This is not uncommon, but it's not the norm.


----------



## FRC

We have quirky speed limits in my gated neighborhood designed to get your attention. The posted speed limit is 22mph. The car always reads this as 25mph. Why? Presumably because the programmers told the car to assume the final digit is always 0 or 5?


----------



## Needsdecaf

FRC said:


> We have quirky speed limits in my gated neighborhood designed to get your attention. The posted speed limit is 22mph. The car always reads this as 25mph. Why? Presumably because the programmers told the car to assume the final digit is always 0 or 5?


LOL, have you ever seen the ones with the "1/2" after them? Wonder what the car does there...


----------



## Bigriver

Diamond.g said:


> I actually wouldn't be surprised to see them stop selling FSD if they can get City Streets working well and go for a pure subscription style like Porsche.





Needsdecaf said:


> You would think that makes more sense. But Elon has beat the "it'll be cheaper in the long run to buy it outright" drum so loud and long I'm not sure they can go back.


I'm not following how eliminating the purchase option is a problem relative to Elon saying that buying FSD will be the better deal. I don't know that he has ever said that subscription or buying it will be a choice offered simultaneously. All is solved in this puzzle if they make new FSD only available via subscription and make previous FSD purchases transferable. I think that would be a win-win-win from so many angles.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Garlan Garner said:


> Thanks Steven for the following video. Andrej Karpathy is fantastic in his explanation of his product and the difference between Tesla and everyone else.
> 
> (7) Tesla's Director Of AI Shares Secrets Of Full Self Driving - YouTube
> 
> wanna get deeper? check this out.
> 
> (7) Andrej Karpathy - AI for Full-Self Driving at Tesla - YouTube
> 
> What's most interesting to me is that GM and all others can view these videos and how Tesla is forming its FSD and AI strategy - directly from Tesla's Engineers. I can't find videos of Cadillacs engineers showing their AI technology design.


Look for Cruise Automation. GM acquired them in March 2016. 



 They also just recently acquired Voyage.

You might want to look up Mobileye who may be the closest to Tesla in terms of strategy. They recently gave their strategy and timeline at CES 2021.


----------



## WhenCanNAgetCCSAdaptor?

+1 :thumbsup:


----------



## JustTheTip

If I could go back to 2018, I definitely wouldn’t have purchased FSD even at the “reduced” price I got it at. 3 years later and it still technically doesn’t exist. And the piecemeal features that do are worthless and buggy.


----------



## francoisp

JustTheTip said:


> If I could go back to 2018, I definitely wouldn't have purchased FSD even at the "reduced" price I got it at. 3 years later and it still technically doesn't exist. And the piecemeal features that do are worthless and buggy.


I mostly agree. If your situation was like mine, Autopilot wasn't included in those early days and I paid $5k for EAP which is worth it (okay not so much for summon). Later on I paid $2k for FSD when it went on sale. Out of it I got a new computer with improved visualizations. So it was not a total loss. I later replaced that car with a model Y and I bought EAP again. However I don't intend to get FSD until it has proved itself.


----------



## Jason F

Garlan Garner said:


> I have a question:
> 
> Does EAP have speed limit sign recognition?
> 
> We have an amazing amount of signs on the side of our roads/streets. Whats amazing is that my car is 100% accurately picking out speed limit signs only from all of them. It must be reading ( via camera ) the words on the sign from at least 100+ feet away - that is only "x" number if pixels large at that distance. Amazing.


Probably still using GPS and map info.


----------



## francoisp

Jason F said:


> Probably still using GPS and map info.


When a speed limit sign is recognized, it overrides the GPS map table.


----------



## Jason F

francoisp said:


> When a speed limit sign is recognized, it overrides the GPS map table.


I understand, but saying someone with EAP is probably seeing GPS and map info.


----------



## francoisp

Jason F said:


> I understand, but saying someone with EAP is probably seeing GPS and map info.


I have EAP and trust me it reads the signs.


----------



## Jason F

francoisp said:


> I have EAP and trust me it reads the signs.


Ok, very good then. I think maybe only with HW3, so it would be "newer" models.


----------



## Bigriver

Jason F said:


> Ok, very good then. I think maybe only with HW3, so it would be "newer" models.


So HW2.5 doesn't read speed limit signs? If that is the case, it is the first definitive benefit that I know of for HW3.


----------



## Jason F

Bigriver said:


> So HW2.5 doesn't read speed limit signs? If that is the case, it is the first definitive benefit that I know of for HW3.


I would say I am not sure. I know it doesn't show the same visualization. Only HW3 shows lane markings, cones, lights, stop signs, etc. Maybe someone can confirm if FSD (who haven't been upgraded) or EAP with 2.5 shows the signs and then actually acts on it. I know only when I got upgraded, did it start working. But that could have changed since then.


----------



## iChris93

A new one for the books 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1380599694154362882


----------



## GDN

iChris93 said:


> A new one for the books
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1380599694154362882


All the way into the garage huh? Was interesting the flashing of lights before it pulled on in.

Guessing there would be problems here, we have rear entry garages. Likely just another edge case, but my gut says it has not been addressed yet.


----------



## Garlan Garner

GDN said:


> All the way into the garage huh? Was interesting the flashing of lights before it pulled on in.
> 
> Guessing there would be problems here, we have rear entry garages. Likely just another edge case, but my gut says it has not been addressed yet.


Beautiful.


----------



## m3_4_wifey

iChris93 said:


> A new one for the books
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1380599694154362882


Now that it seems clear that Tesla's autopilot team is tossing the radar because it's too difficult to fuse, I'm even more curious about the existing cameras installed on the car. They seem to do in low light, but do they also see a wider range of frequencies compared humans?

I'm most curious what the camera's "see" in no light or fog/snow conditions. Anyone know what brand of camera's Tesla is using?


----------



## Kizzy

Jason F said:


> I would say I am not sure. I know it doesn't show the same visualization. Only HW3 shows lane markings, cones, lights, stop signs, etc. Maybe someone can confirm if FSD (who haven't been upgraded) or EAP with 2.5 shows the signs and then actually acts on it. I know only when I got upgraded, did it start working. But that could have changed since then.


I have FSD with HW 2.5 (on 2020.48.12.1). It does not read speed limit signs. It does not render other traffic signs nor road markings. It does show cones and animated people.


----------



## Madmolecule

m3_4_wifey said:


> Now that it seems clear that Tesla's autopilot team is tossing the radar because it's too difficult to fuse, I'm even more curious about the existing cameras installed on the car. They seem to do in low light, but do they also see a wider range of frequencies compared humans?
> 
> I'm most curious what the camera's "see" in no light or fog/snow conditions. Anyone know what brand of camera's Tesla is using?


Hopefully it's not just marketing spin. I am concerned that the true reason is the Tesla doesn't want to pay licensing fees for patented technology, they want it to be all Tesla. I don't know if this is part of LiDAR but it certainly seems a reason why were stuck with basic 10yr old infotainment And navigation. Not using radar, historical information from previous drivers, and the cameras appears to be a little bit misguided. The radar and the previous tesla experience with the road could be used as a trim or under certain circumstances where the cameras realize the other information might be more applicable. Just saying you are relying on cameras and then not be able to make it work does not seem like a power move. Where is my Robo taxi?

Elon Electrify Cuba!


----------



## Bigriver

Kizzy said:


> I have FSD with HW 2.5


Just curious why you haven't done the HW3 upgrade?


----------



## TeslaTony310

Bigriver said:


> Just curious why you haven't done the HW3 upgrade?


My guess would be no features worth upgrading for. Or maybe he thinks he'll get HW4 for free (which I imagine WON'T be free, unless it's needed for true FSD) if he waits long enough.


----------



## Kimmo57

Here in Finland no one has been able to receive the HW3 upgrade yet. Maybe it's the chip shortage, maybe something else. My car is soon 2 years old and I'm still waiting.


----------



## Kizzy

Bigriver said:


> Just curious why you haven't done the HW3 upgrade?


First of all, my computer upgrade wasn't available at my last service visit at the start of the pandemic and going in just for the computer upgrade was unnecessary risk.


TeslaTony310 said:


> My guess would be no features worth upgrading for. Or maybe he thinks he'll get HW4 for free (which I imagine WON'T be free, unless it's needed for true FSD) if he waits long enough.


She's waiting to see if the next version of the FSD computer is available before upgrading because it's possible it will use less energy than the current FSD computer (which uses more energy than the Nvidia HW 2.5 computer. But also, there's not much that I don't already have.


----------



## tivoboy

And yet, another delay.


----------



## shareef777

tivoboy said:


> And yet, another delay.


Least we went from "end of year for FSD every year" to "end of month for button to download beta for FSD every month"


----------



## TrevP

FSD is turning out to be a lot harder problem to solve than they thought...


----------



## TeslaTony310

Kizzy said:


> First of all, my computer upgrade wasn't available at my last service visit at the start of the pandemic and going in just for the computer upgrade was unnecessary risk.
> 
> She's waiting to see if the next version of the FSD computer is available before upgrading because it's possible it will use less energy than the current FSD computer (which uses more energy than the Nvidia HW 2.5 computer. But also, there's not much that I don't already have.


1. The power difference in minimal. Like, 12 watts an hour type of minimal. The chips themselves take up very little energy, that seems like a strange thing to even bother to even think about it. The HVAC system pulls much more juice at varying fan speeds, you can save much more energy by tweaking those settings instead.

2. You can't increase performance in multiples, and reduce energy. That's not how thermodynamics dictate things work. If they were to keep the chip at the same TOPS output, then sure, the power can and should decrease. But that isn't their plan, and you can expect a power increase in the next chip too.


----------



## iChris93

TeslaTony310 said:


> You can't increase performance in multiples, and reduce energy. That's not how thermodynamics dictate things work.


Not easily these days, but transistor power loss isn't really thermodynamics.


----------



## Ksb466

tivoboy said:


> And yet, another delay.


I moved my 10 day FSD calendar reminder (long passed) to 6/30 and labeled it "aspirational"


----------



## iChris93

Visualization improvement! Yay?

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1384589614447423493


----------



## Madmolecule

iChris93 said:


> Visualization improvement! Yay?
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1384589614447423493


Definitely not a shill, I'm sure she was an early purchaser of FSD and chosen for her safe driving habits. As I stated before and Elon is basically confirming FSD will not be deployed this year, wide. These are all pretty much just delay tactics in my mind. The good news is I do believe he will be announcing the Tesla phone with "life pilot" on AI day in July.


----------



## nonStopSwagger

iChris93 said:


> Visualization improvement! Yay?
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1384589614447423493


Yay? Dunno.

Will they release the improved visualizations to everyone, before they release "the button"?

Maybe it's something to distract us, as the FSD release continues to get pushed?


----------



## tivoboy

Blah blah vaporware. Blah blah.


----------



## Maxpilot

Elon needs to release the FSD beta to everyone that paid for FSD.


----------



## Klaus-rf

TrevP said:


> FSD is turning out to be a lot harder problem to solve than they thought...


Who is this "they"?? I have been saying for the past two decades+ that it will take decades (from now) to get this sorted out enough for it to even be remotely safe on public roadways. And driving unassisted by humans from New York to LA? Not in my lifetime, for sure. Not to mention updating all the road and sign markings to make it easuer for machines to read. Not even started on this issues.

Something current versions of "self-Driving" systems completely ignore: there o NO COMMUNICATIONS at all between auto-driving vehicles. Every system (vehicle) is making all decisions indepant of all other vehicles. So no platooning, etc. I attended the 1997 SAE Conference in San Diego on Automated Roadways and Self-Driving cars.

First there's the technical issues to deal with, then come the political, and lastly the regulative issues.

Decades. IMHO.


----------



## FRC

Klaus-rf said:


> Who is this "they"?? I have been saying for the past two decades+ that it will take decades (from now) to get this sorted out enough for it to even be remotely safe on public roadways. And driving unassisted by humans from New York to LA? Not in my lifetime, for sure. Not to mention updating all the road and sign markings to make it easuer for machines to read. Not even started on this issues.
> 
> Something current versions of "self-Driving" systems completely ignore: there o NO COMMUNICATIONS at all between auto-driving vehicles. Every system (vehicle) is making all decisions indepant of all other vehicles. So no platooning, etc. I attended the 1997 SAE Conference in San Diego on Automated Roadways and Self-Driving cars.
> 
> First there's the technical issues to deal with, then come the political, and lastly the regulative issues.
> 
> Decades. IMHO.


Feels like a safe bet that you didn't buy FSD.


----------



## Klaus-rf

FRC said:


> Feels like a safe bet that you didn't buy FSD.


"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet."

If you're a gambling man, you just lost that bet. Purchased (paid for?) FSD at the fire sale (a couple years ago?). It's still not here. And ALL of AP is STILL ßeta-ware. Just an expensive toy.

Autonomous driving defines that no human intervention is needed. We're decades away. Still.


----------



## shareef777

Klaus-rf said:


> Just an expensive toy.


Suppose it's all about perspective. I've spent thousands more on other hobbies (astronomy being one of the big ones; space is vast, and the toys you can buy to look into a black void is endless 😂).

But I definitely get what you mean. I've gotten back A LOT more joy out of every other expensive "toy" I've bought. FSD feels like the toy that turns out to be a blender that purees money :sweatsmile:


----------



## TrevP

Tesla is being attacked relentlessly in the media about autopilot, they can't be releasing FSD to the masses in its current state until it's really ready and how knows WHEN that will be. If you think the recent car accident that killed 2 people which DIDN'T involve AP spread like wildfire in the news was bad you ain't seen anything yet when FSD in involved in the first one...

I know everyone wants it, I get it, but you just know some fool is going to done something stupid which will make the news and the regulators could come down hard. There's no escaping that reality. I'm sure Tesla and Elon knows this which explains why they're late and being super cautious. At some point they're going to have to open it up but we'd better be ready for the absolute apocalypse the media is going to stir up.

Sorry, don't mean to be negative, just realistic for the short term.


----------



## shareef777

TrevP said:


> Tesla is being attacked relentlessly in the media about autopilot, they can't be releasing FSD to the masses in its current state until it's really ready and how knows WHEN that will be. If you think the recent car accident that killed 2 people which DIDN'T involve AP spread like wildfire in the news was bad you ain't seen anything yet when FSD in involved in the first one...
> 
> I know everyone wants it, I get it, but you just know some fool is going to done something stupid which will make the news and the regulators could come down hard. There's no escaping that reality. I'm sure Tesla and Elon knows this which explains why they're late and being super cautious. At some point they're going to have to open it up but we'd better be ready for the absolute apocalypse the media is going to stir up.
> 
> Sorry, don't mean to be negative, just realistic for the short term.


Everything you said is 100% correct. But that doesn't absolve them from offering a solution to all the customers that bought FSD years ago. And they needed to provide that solution yesterday. A simple, "you can roll over your FSD purchase to your next Tesla vehicle" is all it would take. That'll 1.) alleviate any apprehension some of us have about putting money into our current vehicles and getting absolutely nothing in return and 2.) pretty much guarantee these customers will buy at least another Tesla. It's a win-win solution and the constant chatter by Elon over the years about how great FSD is all while ignoring the people that actually PAID for FSD sure feels like a snake-oil salesman pitch.


----------



## FRC

TrevP said:


> Tesla is being attacked relentlessly in the media about autopilot, they can't be releasing FSD to the masses in its current state until it's really ready and how knows WHEN that will be. If you think the recent car accident that killed 2 people which DIDN'T involve AP spread like wildfire in the news was bad you ain't seen anything yet when FSD in involved in the first one...
> 
> I know everyone wants it, I get it, but you just know some fool is going to done something stupid which will make the news and the regulators could come down hard. There's no escaping that reality. I'm sure Tesla and Elon knows this which explains why they're late and being super cautious. At some point they're going to have to open it up but we'd better be ready for the absolute apocalypse the media is going to stir up.
> 
> Sorry, don't mean to be negative, just realistic for the short term.


If Elon had kept his trap shut 3 years ago, FSD purchasers wouldn't be so angry.


----------



## M3OC Rules

shareef777 said:


> Everything you said is 100% correct. But that doesn't absolve them from offering a solution to all the customers that bought FSD years ago. And they needed to provide that solution yesterday. A simple, "you can roll over your FSD purchase to your next Tesla vehicle" is all it would take. That'll 1.) alleviate any apprehension some of us have about putting money into our current vehicles and getting absolutely nothing in return and 2.) pretty much guarantee these customers will buy at least another Tesla. It's a win-win solution and the constant chatter by Elon over the years about how great FSD is all while ignoring the people that actually PAID for FSD sure feels like a snake-oil salesman pitch.


Why stop there? How about we just get to trade in the car for a new one even up? The old one should appreciate eventually.


----------



## Madmolecule

I believe Tesla has learned that the problem with the autopilot and FSD is the *road*. It might be easier to make a flying car than make FSD work safely and naturally. Eliminate the road, also most driver don't have pilot experience so that won't be as big a critic. This is also why I believe Tesla is focusing on a phone and "life Pilot" to enhance your driving experience while you are still managing the vehicle.


----------



## shareef777

M3OC Rules said:


> Why stop there? How about we just get to trade in the car for a new one even up? The old one should appreciate eventually.


You serious!? Because I've gotten use/value out of the car, haven't gotten squat from FSD.

If Tesla sold me a 3 that they kept for another 2-3 years (and counting) while they tested to verify that it's good you better believe I'd expect a new car!


----------



## Klaus-rf

shareef777 said:


> I've spent thousands more on other hobbies (astronomy being one of the big ones; space is vast, and the toys you can buy to look into a black void is endless 😂).
> :sweatsmile:


I work for NOAO/NOIRLab. We have some very expensive telescopes (~$470million in total project & construction costs).


----------



## TeslaTony310

FRC said:


> If Elon had kept his trap shut 3 years ago, FSD purchasers wouldn't be so angry.


This, is the real answer. It would have saved people from buying it on leases, which is quite literally a crime, since he promised features, and didn't deliver them in the stated time frame, upon which reasonable people based their buying decision on. Also, it would have made FSD sound more like vaporware, sure, but at least then, you knew you were basically loaning Tesla money to claim on their books, while they worked to release the features.

Frankly, as someone who bought it during the fire sale, and paid less than virtually everyone else for EAP and FSD, I feel like throughout that time, I've heard more "soon" than anything else, and my patience is wearing pretty thin. We're going on 4 years now; release what you have, even if gimped, and let people try it out. Give them a button to opt out if they aren't comfortable with using it, monitor FSD features via in cabin camera, as they're supposedly doing with FSD beta testers now, and call it a day.

At this point, it's bordering on silly.


----------



## GDN

How do you think all of those folks that bought the Model S even years before most of us got a 3 feel? 

I'll go on record as I'm still not upset with anything other than the same as the title of the thread. I just wish he would quit tweeting about dates he will never deliver. We know they are still trying, we know it will never drive itself 100% and I'm OK with both. Take my money.


----------



## JustTheTip

iChris93 said:


> A new one for the books
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1380599694154362882


Lots of edits in that video. 100% guarantee this wasn't a smooth FSD trip.


----------



## zacster

I've had my M3 for about 2 months now and only in the last few days did I even try the autopilot. I never considered FSD at all, it wasn't even a thought. I liked the AP in traffic as you can just not think about the stop and go, and at speed on an open highway. But where I still get nervous with it is at speed on a busy highway. I set the follow to be the largest distance but it still gets too close before it reacts for my taste, never mind my wife's. It just feels like there is too much going on for the car to react to, especially here in NYC. 

I"m not surprised though that the FSD is still not here. I remember on my first test drive of an S that the sales guy said it couldn't recognize bicycles on the streets. As a cyclist that sent shivers through me and I'm actually glad it is still not available. How many other unrecognized objects are there? Will it see a tumbleweed?


----------



## francoisp

zacster said:


> I remember on my first test drive of an S that the sales guy said it couldn't recognize bicycles on the streets.


What??? I don't know when you were told that but these days that's not true. My Y in Autopilot does recognize cyclists and will slowdown approaching them. And with FSD, based on youtube videos I've seen, it recognizes dogs, people, people with dogs and many other "objects".


----------



## slacker775

francoisp said:


> What??? I don't know when you were told that but these days that's not true. My Y in Autopilot does recognize cyclists and will slowdown approaching them. And with FSD, based on youtube videos I've seen, it recognizes dogs, people, people with dogs and many other "objects".


Same here. It's recognized pedestrians,
Motorcycles and bikes for quite some time. And just because it doesn't visually show something on the screen doesn't mean it doesn't see it.

As for the TACC/AP follow distance on the highway, it's not too close at all and it handles slow-downs and speed-ups just fine. It can be a little hairy the first few times you are in a sudden deceleration simply because you naturally don't want to trust that the car will stop if you can just intervene and be certain, but it's done a full brake slam stop perfectly for me.


----------



## DocScott

slacker775 said:


> Same here. It's recognized pedestrians,
> Motorcycles and bikes for quite some time. And just because it doesn't visually show something on the screen doesn't mean it doesn't see it.
> 
> As for the TACC/AP follow distance on the highway, it's not too close at all and it handles slow-downs and speed-ups just fine. It can be a little hairy the first few times you are in a sudden deceleration simply because you naturally don't want to trust that the car will stop if you can just intervene and be certain, but it's done a full brake slam stop perfectly for me.


Like zacster, I live in the NYC area. And I largely agree with him/her--there are many situations on the NYC-area parkways where even at the largest follow distance, it's too close. That's particularly true in snow or rain, but can also be true on some of the busy parkways with limited sight distance because of curves and hills. I don't think it's _always_ too long, but it's weird to me that the _longest_ follow distance you can choose isn't longer.

In stop-and-go traffic, on the other hand, the closest follow distance isn't quite close enough.


----------



## francoisp

DocScott said:


> In stop-and-go traffic, on the other hand, the closest follow distance isn't quite close enough.


Tesla goes for safety, not trying to prevent drivers from cutting in 😁


----------



## slacker775

And I would throw out there that proper/adequate follow distance is going to be very subjective. We all learned this when we were learning to drive with our folks! One person may view it as sitting on someone’s butt, another person would view that exact same distance as waaay too much.


----------



## DocScott

slacker775 said:


> And I would throw out there that proper/adequate follow distance is going to be very subjective. We all learned this when we were learning to drive with our folks! One person may view it as sitting on someone's butt, another person would view that exact same distance as waaay too much.


Yes! Which is why I think the "follow distance" adjustment should have a wider range.


----------



## walnotr

DocScott said:


> Yes! Which is why I think the "follow distance" adjustment should have a wider range.


I'd like it to adjust the tailgaters following distance. 😊


----------



## GDN

And they just keep throwing fuel on this fire - time for them to just go silent until they have something to deliver:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1387413976296919041


----------



## wellerjohn

Should be any day now, Elon will announce FSD beta will be..... delayed another 2-4 weeks.


----------



## shareef777

You can't be disappointed... if he doesn't tweet!


----------



## garsh

Supposedly, vision-only FSD will eliminate phantom braking.
And why do so many people not understand the difference between "braking" and "breaking"?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1392429457038667777


----------



## FRC

garsh said:


> And why do so many people not understand the difference between "braking" and "breaking"?


THIS!!! I've been chewing on my tongue since I joined this forum 3 years ago about this misuse. I didn't want to be the pedantic A-hole who brought it up! Thank You @garsh!


----------



## shareef777

FRC said:


> THIS!!! I've been chewing on my tongue since I joined this forum 3 years ago about this misuse. I didn't want to be the pendantic A-hole who brought it up! Thank You @garsh!


What're you trying to say about @garsh 😂


----------



## BobDole

Latest Elon Twit: "a month or two away from wide beta"


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1392430463436812288


----------



## nonStopSwagger

BobDole said:


> Latest Elon Twit: "a month or two away from wide beta"
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1392430463436812288


I'm reading that as "no way it gets released to anyone outside the 2k wide beta participants this year"


----------



## tivoboy

nonStopSwagger said:


> I'm reading that as "no way it gets released to anyone outside the 2k wide beta participants this year"


Not "this year" would be a hard one to justify..we're already essentially two years overdue. Was end of year 2019, then 2020, now 2021? But for sure, as someone said upthread surely not before July.


----------



## iChris93

tivoboy said:


> Not "this year" would be a hard one to justify..we're already essentially two years overdue. Was end of year 2019, then 2020, now 2021?


I think being two years behind makes not this year easier to justify.


----------



## tivoboy

iChris93 said:


> I think being two years behind makes not this year easier to justify.


I think it's funny that everyone just seems to be okay or oblivious to the fact that EM just keeps saying "couple of weeks away".. every couple of months.


----------



## shareef777

tivoboy said:


> I think it's funny that everyone just seems to be okay or oblivious to the fact that EM just keeps saying "couple of weeks away".. every couple of months.


Least we're now to "month or two away".


----------



## AftermarketEV

Another day another dissapointment! 

Whatever timeline Elon provides, elongate it.


----------



## tivoboy

AftermarketEV said:


> Another day another dissapointment!
> 
> Whatever timeline Elon provides, elongate it.


ELONgate it!


----------



## iChris93

tivoboy said:


> I think it's funny that everyone just seems to be okay or oblivious to the fact that EM just keeps saying "couple of weeks away".. every couple of months.


Certainly not okay with it, but what can ya do?


----------



## shareef777

iChris93 said:


> Certainly not okay with it, but what can ya do?


Spread the word for others so everyone stops buying FSD. Tesla either needs to put up or shut up when it comes to FSD.


----------



## wellerjohn

shareef777 said:


> Least we're now to "month or two away".


All we know for certain is, Elon is a serial timeline extender.


----------



## Ksb466

How will pure vision handle the scenario where the car 2 in front of you stops suddenly, and car blocking it directly in front of you does not. I thought that capability was only due to radar.


----------



## bwilson4web

I'm leaning towards making skeptical tweets…. 'Says you <eye rolls>' … 'So still broke?' … 'We heard that before last year.'

Maybe we can shame him into releasing it.

Bob Wilson


----------



## jlquinn

Garlan Garner said:


> I have a question:
> 
> Does EAP have speed limit sign recognition?
> 
> We have an amazing amount of signs on the side of our roads/streets. Whats amazing is that my car is 100% accurately picking out speed limit signs only from all of them. It must be reading ( via camera ) the words on the sign from at least 100+ feet away - that is only "x" number if pixels large at that distance. Amazing.


It's pretty amazing, but not 100%. I recently went past a 70MPH max/40MPH min sign pair (the two signs are vertical), and it picked up the 40 as the speed limit. They have seemed to fix picking up certain route signs such as CT-25 as a speed limit.


----------



## TeslaTony310

Ksb466 said:


> How will pure vision handle the scenario where the car 2 in front of you stops suddenly, and car blocking it directly in front of you does not. I thought that capability was only due to radar.


It ain't happening anymore :imp:


----------



## francoisp

Ksb466 said:


> How will pure vision handle the scenario where the car 2 in front you stops suddenly, and car blocking it directly in front of you does not. I thought that capability was only due to radar.


Regarding this concept that the radar waves travel under the car in front and bounce of the second car, I've looked for actual examples of this but I've never seen it. I don't think it works.


----------



## Ksb466

TeslaTony310 said:


> It ain't happening anymore :imp:


Only Elon can render a bunch of our hardware useless and call it a gigantic step foreward. I wonder if they will have us replace radar parts when we need to replace bumpers In accidents.


----------



## garsh

francoisp said:


> Regarding this concept that the radar waves travel under the car in front and bounce of the second car, I've looked for actual examples of this but I've never seen it. I don't think it works.


I don't know what you mean by "see", but there are a few videos on YouTube where the car detects a slow down further ahead and reacts before the car directly in front reacts.
Elon has stated that this is done by bouncing radar under the car directly ahead, but perhaps the AI has gotten better at spotting cars through the windows and windshield of the car directly ahead?


----------



## francoisp

garsh said:


> I don't know what you mean by "see", but there are a few videos on YouTube where the car detects a slow down further ahead and reacts before the car directly in front reacts.
> Elon has stated that this is done by bouncing radar under the car directly ahead, but perhaps the AI has gotten better at spotting cars through the windows and windshield of the car directly ahead?


I've seen them too, years ago. But I have not seen or heard of any recent ones. I 've been in situations exactly like that and the car never did a preemptive braking. I would not be surprised to hear that Tesla no longer relies on that.


----------



## JasonF

If it's tracking more cars ahead visually, it wouldn't need the radar to detect cars slowing down ahead of the car in front of you. Software could have the capability to fully watch more cars at once than a human would be able to.


----------



## garsh

JasonF said:


> If it's tracking more cars ahead visually, it wouldn't need the radar to detect cars slowing down ahead of the car in front of you. Software could have the capability to fully watch more cars at once than a human would be able to.


Radar is _very_ good at measuring relative speed difference. Cameras are not. You would need an AI to figure out how speed is changing based on seeing part of the car, and that's a hard problem to solve.

That's why I'm dubious as to whether we'll continue to get this sort of look-ahead behavior. But we'll see. Hopefully Tesla can prove me wrong.


----------



## JasonF

garsh said:


> Radar is _very_ good at measuring relative speed difference. Cameras are not. You would need an AI to figure out how speed is changing based on seeing part of the car, and that's a hard problem to solve.
> 
> That's why I'm dubious as to whether we'll continue to get this sort of look-ahead behavior. But we'll see. Hopefully Tesla can prove me wrong.


That has changed! If you've used Apple's Measure app on an iPhone, it measures things with a camera. Not very well, mind you, but that's because it's using _relative_ distance - if it misjudges the scale of the items around you, it measures wrong. Ironically that's terrible for measuring accurately, but _really_ good for determining relative speed and distance in a moving car. I think Apple's tool is based on OpenCV, but I'm not sure.

Where it might work better for Tesla is, Autopilot already knows your speed and the approximate size of what it knows as a car or a truck. So it should be able to figure out the distance from you to any vehicle, or more importantly, the space between vehicles, pretty well. The reason why space between vehicles is more important is because that's how us humans detect if something unsafe is going on ahead, prompting us to back off. If Autopilot can achieve that same feat, it's at least as safe as we are. Where it then does better is it can watch cars all around you at the same time, and determine a good exit strategy if things are getting dicey, and much more quickly than we can.


----------



## garsh

JasonF said:


> The reason why space between vehicles is more important is because that's how us humans detect if something unsafe is going on ahead, prompting us to back off.


FYI, humans are actually very bad at detecting things moving towards them.

I know the thumbnail looks like a prison fight, but it's actually a demonstration being performed by Michael Jai White (a martial-arts expert) to Kimbo Slice (an MMA fighter) on a movie set.
It's quite eye-opening.






As Mr. White says, brake lights are necessary BECAUSE humans have such a hard time telling if the car in front of them is slowing down (ie, moving directly towards them).


----------



## GDN

JasonF said:


> That has changed! If you've used Apple's Measure app on an iPhone, it measures things with a camera.


Actually Apple is using a Lidar scanner built into the phone for those measurements.


----------



## JasonF

GDN said:


> Actually Apple is using a Lidar scanner built into the phone for those measurements.


There isn't one on older models! But the app still works. Somewhat.


----------



## GDN

JasonF said:


> There isn't one on older models! But the app still works. Somewhat.


I wasn't aware they made the app available on other models without lidar. I guess this sums up Tesla and FSD too, at the end of they day they may just have to say they don't have the right hardware, whatever that is. Or it will only work 85% / never reach true FSD.


----------



## JasonF

GDN said:


> I wasn't aware they made the app available on other models without lidar. I guess this sums up Tesla and FSD too, at the end of they day they may just have to say they don't have the right hardware, whatever that is. Or it will only work 85% / never reach true FSD.


I think FSD _features_ will be available on all models, somewhat, but you'll be restricted on your featureset if you don't have the latest model. Like maybe you'll only get Navigate on Autopilot and auto lane change on HW 2.5, but you'll have to confirm cross-traffic manually; On HW 3.0 you'll get lots of nagging for confirmation in heavy traffic, but no problems elsewhere; and 4.0/4.5 would be completely unattended driving. I don't think they'll establish a full lockout at one particular version.


----------



## vinnie97

JasonF said:


> I think FSD _features_ will be available on all models, somewhat, but you'll be restricted on your featureset if you don't have the latest model. Like maybe you'll only get Navigate on Autopilot and auto lane change on HW 2.5, but you'll have to confirm cross-traffic manually; On HW 3.0 you'll get lots of nagging for confirmation in heavy traffic, but no problems elsewhere; and 4.0/4.5 would be completely unattended driving. I don't think they'll establish a full lockout at one particular version.


I think you're telling me to repeat my last error and purchase FSD with the coming Tesla Cybertruck product.


----------



## JasonF

vinnie97 said:


> I think you're telling me to repeat my last error and purchase FSD with the coming Tesla Cybertruck product.


No, but it's fun to watch the progress. I wouldn't even think about buying FSD until _after_ it lives up to its name. Mostly because it may have to go through a period of being disallowed in certain areas, so even if you have it and could use it, you can't.


----------



## FRC

My Grandfather used to tell us "Never buy a pig in a poke". Folks, we didn't heed that advice, and FSD is the PIG!


----------



## shareef777

I think Tesla made a calculated gamble with continually increasing the cost of FSD. It gave the appearance of significant progress, BUT priced it well out of range for even a cool tech demo.

Issue now is that they’re obviously still years away from full autonomy (if it’s even possible in our vehicles). They should have kept it priced at $2-3k as a tech demo (you get Summon, NoA, lane change). Bumped it to $5k when the REAL public beta finally launches, and eventually bumped it to $10k when it can go unmonitored on major highways, and $20k when it’s completely L5. Now they can’t really drop the price without alienating a large swath of their customer base that paid $10k for FSD (admittedly I believe it’s an extremely small percent of their customers).


----------



## TrevP

I'm not too worried about the loss of radar. Tesla has proven with FSD beta that they can detect and predict objects over time even when they are occluded. With so many cameras the ability to capture an occluded vehicle for AEB is greatly enhanced.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1393371184969011202


----------



## shareef777

I’d also add that my logic in skipping FSD on my Y is that at $10k, I’d rather just take the loss on trading in my Y and spending money for FSD on a new vehicle instead of one that’ll likely age out.

I definitely see a lawsuit in the future over the delay of FSD. By the time it’s eventually delivered many vehicles would have lost a significant amount of their useable life.

Imagine I sold someone some furniture, but telling them I can’t deliver it till either after they move out or their home burns down.


----------



## francoisp

shareef777 said:


> They should have kept it priced at $2-3k as a tech demo (you get Summon, NoA, lane change).


This used to exist, it was called EAP. I got the chance to buy it last October when I got my Y. Not sure if it has been offered after that.


----------



## JasonF

shareef777 said:


> I definitely see a lawsuit in the future over the delay of FSD. By the time it's eventually delivered many vehicles would have lost a significant amount of their useable life.


I don't think there will be - because I believe for the most part, the kind of buyers who paid for early FSD are ones where $10,000 doesn't really mean much to them, and/or who don't feel that chasing after $10k is worth their time.


----------



## vinnie97

Well, a decked out 3 offered (predominately) as a gift made it easy to be foolhardy. That won't happen again going forward. I also thought the software would prove itself by the time they released the Cybertruck. I don't believe that anymore.


----------



## webe3owners

vinnie97 said:


> Well, a decked out 3 offered (predominately) as a gift made it easy to be foolhardy. That won't happen again going forward. I also thought the software would prove itself by the time they released the Cybertruck. I don't believe that anymore.


I tend to agree. CT should be out in first quarter of 2022. I can't see general widespread release of FSD for years. This time next year we'll still be a couple months away.


----------



## DocScott

JasonF said:


> I don't think there will be - because I believe for the most part, the kind of buyers who paid for early FSD are ones where $10,000 doesn't really mean much to them, and/or who don't feel that chasing after $10k is worth their time.


The $10k buyers aren't the main issue. It's the people who paid for FSD when EAP was a separate option like it was in 2018. It typically cost $3000 to get the vaporware FSD at delivery during that period, and so far the only thing most of those people have gotten was an upgrade to HW3 that doesn't seem to have impacted their driving experience in any way.

At that point, the price was reasonable for what many buyers thought they were getting, on the timeline they thought they'd get it. Sure, at that point Elon time was already a thing, and maybe they expected the timeline to extend a year or two beyond what Elon was tweeting. But what's happened since is that Elon time has bifurcated: Tesla has now gotten pretty good at launching new models, building factories, and production ramp ups (yes, sometimes things are still a bit late, but not always), but L5 or even L4 driving seems as far away as ever.

It's those people who paid $3k and have gotten nothing of use to them who could spearhead a class-action lawsuit.


----------



## Long Ranger

I believe one complicating factor in any lawsuit would be the binding arbitration clause in the purchase agreement. I doubt many owners opted out of that.


----------



## JasonF

DocScott said:


> It's those people who paid $3k and have gotten nothing of use to them who could spearhead a class-action lawsuit.


I still don't think so. Quite a lot of the people who could afford to add on both AP and FSD were of the cash payment variety, and by now have probably traded in those cars and moved on. A class action of the remaining people who both bought pre-free-AP models with FSD and still have the car would be much smaller.


----------



## shareef777

DocScott said:


> The $10k buyers aren't the main issue. It's the people who paid for FSD when EAP was a separate option like it was in 2018. It typically cost $3000 to get the vaporware FSD at delivery during that period, and so far the only thing most of those people have gotten was an upgrade to HW3 that doesn't seem to have impacted their driving experience in any way.
> 
> At that point, the price was reasonable for what many buyers thought they were getting, on the timeline they thought they'd get it. Sure, at that point Elon time was already a thing, and maybe they expected the timeline to extend a year or two beyond what Elon was tweeting. But what's happened since is that Elon time has bifurcated: Tesla has now gotten pretty good at launching new models, building factories, and production ramp ups (yes, sometimes things are still a bit late, but not always), but L5 or even L4 driving seems as far away as ever.
> 
> It's those people who paid $3k and have gotten nothing of use to them who could spearhead a class-action lawsuit.


Some of us paid $5k :-(


----------



## shareef777

JasonF said:


> I still don't think so. Quite a lot of the people who could afford to add on both AP and FSD were of the cash payment variety, and by now have probably traded in those cars and moved on. A class action of the remaining people who both bought pre-free-AP models with FSD and still have the car would be much smaller.


Selling their vehicle doesn't exclude them from a potential class-action. Just look at most of the tech companies. I've received notices (and payments) for plenty of Apple devices long after I sold/tossed them.


----------



## JasonF

shareef777 said:


> Selling their vehicle doesn't exclude them from a potential class-action. Just look at most of the tech companies. I've received notices (and payments) for plenty of Apple devices long after I sold/tossed them.


It doesn't, but it does discourage them from taking any action on it.


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## DocScott

JasonF said:


> I still don't think so. Quite a lot of the people who could afford to add on both AP and FSD were of the cash payment variety, and by now have probably traded in those cars and moved on. A class action of the remaining people who both bought pre-free-AP models with FSD and still have the car would be much smaller.


Do you have evidence for the assertion that a lot of AP+FSD buyers during that period paid cash?

I've said this before: a Model 3 was a real stretch for me. FSD was also an exciting prospect. So my plan had been to get a SR with FSD, financed. It was also my plan to own the car for a long time--perhaps ten years.

The only thing that kept me from putting that plan in to action was that my previous car, which was a 2006 Hyundai Elantra I'd bought in 2015, failed an inspection in late 2018. Fixing it would cost more than the car was worth. So, faced with the choice of sinking more money in to the Elantra, buying another used car to bridge me to the SR, or biting the bullet and buying a LR immediately, I bought the LR. In black. With no AP or FSD. So in my particular case I dodged a bullet, but if things had been just a little different I wouldn't have.

Was I unusual for a Tesla buyer? I don't think I was _that_ unusual. In summer 2018, Tesla noted the top non-Tesla trade-ins were the Prius, the BMW 3-series, the Accord, the Civic, and the Leaf. Most of those were people trading up to get an M3--I've got to believe they were financing their purchase. Now maybe most of those Civic drivers didn't buy FSD. But at the time it was only $3000 more than EAP, and the prospect of true autonomous driving seemed tantalizingly close. I'd guess there were a fair number of people for whom that $3000 was a significant additional stretch that they managed to make...and now regret.


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## JasonF

DocScott said:


> Do you have evidence for the assertion that a lot of AP+FSD buyers during that period paid cash?


Indirectly, kind of. I financed a LR M3 in 2018 without AP or FSD, and it was a budget stretch. Adding AP plus FSD would have increased my monthly payment by something like $100 or more per month.

Since increasing the monthly payment by $100 or more (for something that doesn't even work yet!) becomes unaffordable to quite a lot of people who must finance a car, it's a logical conclusion that most people who could afford to add both AP and FSD at the time were not financing at all. I'm sure there were a few buyers who were gluttons for punishment and didn't mind it, but it doesn't strike me as something common.


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## slacker775

JasonF said:


> Indirectly, kind of. I financed a LR M3 in 2018 without AP or FSD, and it was a budget stretch. Adding AP plus FSD would have increased my monthly payment by something like $100 or more per month.
> 
> Since increasing the monthly payment by $100 or more (for something that doesn't even work yet!) becomes unaffordable to quite a lot of people who must finance a car, it's a logical conclusion that most people who could afford to add both AP and FSD at the time were not financing at all. I'm sure there were a few buyers who were gluttons for punishment and didn't mind it, but it doesn't strike me as something common.


I don't think this really computes. Even back in 2018 rates were quite low so even many folks that could potential pay cash would still finance. So the ~$100/mo premium for FSD would apply to most anybody that bought the car. It would really just be a matter of if that extra amount per month was doable within their budget. Since the 3 typically is 45-60k, that's not your buyer that can just barely squeeze into any car at the lowest price. Certainly there has been a number of buyers stretching their budget and taking advantage of the EV credit at the time, but a pretty healthy number of folks with more flexibility on cost so I suspect the take rate has been pretty decent. Probably somewhere to the 30-50% range.


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## JasonF

slacker775 said:


> I don't think this really computes. Even back in 2018 rates were quite low so even many folks that could potential pay cash would still finance. So the ~$100/mo premium for FSD would apply to most anybody that bought the car. It would really just be a matter of if that extra amount per month was doable within their budget. Since the 3 typically is 45-60k, that's not your buyer that can just barely squeeze into any car at the lowest price. Certainly there has been a number of buyers stretching their budget and taking advantage of the EV credit at the time, but a pretty healthy number of folks with more flexibility on cost so I suspect the take rate has been pretty decent. Probably somewhere to the 30-50% range.


My reasoning is logical to _me_, but it's entirely possible that I'm thinking about the wrong market segment entirely, and I'm in the extreme minority. It could be that I'm one of a handful of people that didn't buy AP or FSD, or that couldn't pull off an additional $100/month for them. I don't think so, but it could be.

I do have to mention though that with a $25k Tesla in the works, if I am in the extreme minority, I won't be for long!


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## FRC

DocScott said:


> It's those people who paid $3k and have gotten nothing of use to them who could spearhead a class-action lawsuit.


Make no mistake they, ahem, we will.


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## FRC

Long Ranger said:


> I believe one complicating factor in any lawsuit would be the binding arbitration clause in the purchase agreement. I doubt many owners opted out of that.


I can't say what percentage opted out. I know for certain that one did. And that one was okay waiting 911 days to get his car. But he is getting very grumpy waiting for the FSD product that has been promised for years, and likely will not be delivered before his vehicle dies. Even if FSD is delivered in full tomorrow, we have gone several months/years without the product we were promised months/years ago.

Imagine that you bought a magazine subscription today that was valid until 2030. But your subscription didn't begin to show up in your mailbox until 2029. You thought you were buying a 9 year deal(as would most reasonable buyers), but it turns out that you bought a one year deal for the price of nine years. How does that make you feel? Makes me feel like a sucker!

I've never sued anyone, EVER, in my life. But if I get the chance to join a class-action on this issue, I'm in with both feet!!


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## Bigriver

JasonF said:


> Quite a lot of the people who could afford to add on both AP and FSD were of the cash payment variety,


I don't think most people who purchased FSD paid cash. About 85% of all cars are financed, and I bet this percentage increases for higher priced cars. [https://www.statista.com/statistics/453000/share-of-new-vehicles-with-financing-usa/]
I agree with @slacker775 that your logic is illogical on this. Because someone made a choice to buy FSD does not suddenly mean they must have paid cash.



JasonF said:


> My reasoning is logical to _me_, but it's entirely possible that I'm thinking about the wrong market segment entirely, and I'm in the extreme minority. It could be that I'm one of a handful of people that didn't buy AP or FSD, or that couldn't pull off an additional $100/month for them. I don't think so, but it could be.


I think you are in the majority, which is that you didn't buy FSD. I don't think anyone knows the take rate for sure, but it is certainly much less than 50%. How many bought FSD vs how many paid cash for their car are 2 very different issues.


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## Bigriver

@FRC, you used the word "promised" many times. I'm not a lawyer, but I don't see the promises regarding time line. I acknowledge that Elon has tweeted many things - the subject of this thread - but I think the actual Design Studio configurator and car purchase agreement has been void of defining times. I recently browsed through internet archives of the Tesla design studio, and all that I saw were consistently vague. The wording has always cast shade on regulatory approval, that it could cause delays. I just don't see where Tesla has "promised" a specific timeline, unless a judge or arbitrator would rule that the CEO (um, Technoking) tweets count.


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## shareef777

Bigriver said:


> @FRC, you used the word "promised" many times. I'm not a lawyer, but I don't see the promises regarding time line. I acknowledge that Elon has tweeted many things - the subject of this thread - but I think the actual Design Studio configurator and car purchase agreement has been void of defining times. I recently browsed through internet archives of the Tesla design studio, and all that I saw were consistently vague. The wording has always cast shade on regulatory approval, that it could cause delays. I just don't see where Tesla has "promised" a specific timeline, unless a judge or arbitrator would rule that the CEO (um, Technoking) tweets count.


"Coming later this year" has been on the config page every year for the past 3 years.

No one is arguing the difficulty of FSD (or regulatory approval), but if it couldn't be delivered after a full year delay then buyers need options. Either a refund or the ability to transfer FSD. What's really aggravating is the lack of a transfer option. That doesn't cost Tesla anything other than future FSD sales for those that bought in early. And seeing that those that bought early got nothing for their purchase in the first place, that's just indicative of Tesla's grifting of its loyal customers.


----------



## DocScott

I'm also not a lawyer, but I don't think Tesla has to violate the formal terms of the car purchase agreement to lose a lawsuit. "Full self-driving" could be considered a form of false advertising--even the name alone might be enough basis for that.

@Long Ranger makes an excellent point about binding arbitration, though--that's probably the biggest barrier to this happening.


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## iChris93

I will say that I would sign-on to a class action lawsuit simply because they told me that it would cost me more to purchase FSD after delivery than if I purchased it before delivery. While that may be true right now, they did offer it "for sale" for $2k sometime after my purchase when I purchased it before delivery for $3k.

I wish they would be more honest with the timelines too. If they have been working on this for so long, they should have a better idea on what they can and cannot achieve in a year. They shouldn't always promise by end of the year.

Oh, and I opted out of arbitration.


----------



## JasonF

iChris93 said:


> I will say that I would sign-on to a class action lawsuit simply because they told me that it would cost me more to purchase FSD after delivery than if I purchased it before delivery. While that may be true right now, they did offer it "for sale" for $2k sometime after my purchase when I purchased it before delivery for $3k.


Something that just occurred to me is that a class-action would be harder to form/prove simply because Tesla did return _something_ for the price. It may not be what was promised, but it would generally be easier to prove something like fraud if they took the money and gave nothing in return. In this case, Tesla might derail a class action simply by asserting that they did deliver something for the value (in this case, NoA and a free HW3 upgrade) even if they were unable to deliver exactly what was promised.

Imagine a concert that's scheduled, and tickets are sold, the venue reserved, equipment purchased/rented, etc. Imagine that it was scheduled in 2020, and cancelled because of the pandemic, and they don't know when or if it can be rescheduled, or if that act will ever return to that city. And the promoter can't afford to refund each and every ticket because they put out a lot of money assuming the concert was going to happen. So they give each person with a ticket a voucher for a future event. It's a gamble for both parties; because the event you're forced to use your voucher for might not cost as much as the ticket you paid for, and might not even be the one act you badly wanted to see. But suing would be difficult, because the promoter gave _something _of value in exchange for what you paid.

I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's going to be difficult based on the kind of precedents like the above.


----------



## shareef777

JasonF said:


> Something that just occurred to me is that a class-action would be harder to form/prove simply because Tesla did return _something_ for the price. It may not be what was promised, but it would generally be easier to prove something like fraud if they took the money and gave nothing in return. In this case, Tesla might derail a class action simply by asserting that they did deliver something for the value (in this case, NoA and a free HW3 upgrade) even if they were unable to deliver exactly what was promised.
> 
> Imagine a concert that's scheduled, and tickets are sold, the venue reserved, equipment purchased/rented, etc. Imagine that it was scheduled in 2020, and cancelled because of the pandemic, and they don't know when or if it can be rescheduled, or if that act will ever return to that city. And the promoter can't afford to refund each and every ticket because they put out a lot of money assuming the concert was going to happen. So they give each person with a ticket a voucher for a future event. It's a gamble for both parties; because the event you're forced to use your voucher for might not cost as much as the ticket you paid for, and might not even be the one act you badly wanted to see. But suing would be difficult, because the promoter gave _something _of value in exchange for what you paid.
> 
> I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's going to be difficult based on the kind of precedents like the above.


Yes, allowing me to move my voucher to another venue (aka Model3) would be a good remediation 😊


----------



## evannole

JasonF said:


> Indirectly, kind of. I financed a LR M3 in 2018 without AP or FSD, and it was a budget stretch. Adding AP plus FSD would have increased my monthly payment by something like $100 or more per month.
> 
> Since increasing the monthly payment by $100 or more (for something that doesn't even work yet!) becomes unaffordable to quite a lot of people who must finance a car, it's a logical conclusion that most people who could afford to add both AP and FSD at the time were not financing at all. I'm sure there were a few buyers who were gluttons for punishment and didn't mind it, but it doesn't strike me as something common.


Whether or not people financed their cars is irrelevant, particularly when interest rates are low. Moreover, I don't know that there's much of a correlation between "being able to afford FSD" and the length of car ownership. I know many people who jump from car to car to car, usually long before they are paid off. I also know many who are independently wealthy and keep cars for 15 years or more.

I bought EAP upon delivery, FSD when it went on sale, and plan to keep my car for 10 years or more. The three new cars I have had in my lifetime I have kept for 10, 10 and 7 years, respectively, and I would have kept the last one for more than 7 years but for my Model 3 showing up much sooner than expected.


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## slacker775

Without a doubt, Tesla enabling folks that purchase FSD prior to it really becoming available would go a long way towards alleviating a lot of the angst.


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## JasonF

evannole said:


> Whether or not people financed their cars is irrelevant, particularly when interest rates are low. Moreover, I don't know that there's much of a correlation between "being able to afford FSD" and the length of car ownership. I know many people who jump from car to car to car, usually long before they are paid off. I also know many who are independently wealthy and keep cars for 15 years or more.


This kind of thing is why I wondered above if my situation is very uncommon, at least among the people in this forum, and possibly among all Tesla buyers. I financed the Model 3 purchase because I didn't _have_ the ability to pay cash for it - I didn't choose financing as an alternative to paying cash because it was so cheap to finance. I also had a limit to how much of a payment I could afford, so for me it wasn't a matter if "if I can do this payment, an extra $100/month is no big deal". It was _already_ more than I expected because I didn't get the interest rate I wanted, and because I forgot to calculate in the sales tax, so an extra $100/month worth of Autopilot and FSD would have made it impossible for me. What was lucky is that Tesla took so long to deliver the car after pre-ordering in 2016, I had a decent down payment, which moderated the payment a bit.

So yes, while I kept trying to explain that kind of situation like it wasn't that unusual, it's entirely possible that _I'm_ the one who doesn't understand a typical Model 3 purchase. I can only hope that Tesla is still paying attention to people like me, though, because it's going to become somewhat more typical when they release that $25k Tesla, or when SR Model 3 prices come down closer to $30k someday. I'm hoping they don't choose instead to stay firmly rooted in an upper segment market and nudge people like me toward other less expensive brands.


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## shareef777

evannole said:


> Whether or not people financed their cars is irrelevant, particularly when interest rates are low. Moreover, I don't know that there's much of a correlation between "being able to afford FSD" and the length of car ownership. I know many people who jump from car to car to car, usually long before they are paid off. I also know many who are independently wealthy and keep cars for 15 years or more.
> 
> I bought EAP upon delivery, FSD when it went on sale, and plan to keep my car for 10 years or more. The three new cars I have had in my lifetime I have kept for 10, 10 and 7 years, respectively, and I would have kept the last one for more than 7 years but for my Model 3 showing up much sooner than expected.


I haven't EVER had a vehicle I've owned completely paid off. I'm always considerably above water and just use the funds to pay down my home and/or large projects that would incur significantly higher interest if I'd used credit cards for them.

At the end of the day, paying (in full or monthly) for nothing is the issue. Wether someone can afford that or not is irrelevant.


----------



## Ksb466

For those who bought FSD, do you expect to use it in everyday driving (yes, I’m asking you assume it’s released this year) in it’s near current form or will it feel like Summon, a cool party trick, try it a few times and not use it much until many iterations years later?
I’m looking forward to it but My thinking is the +5mph limit makes it impractical and I’ll always be overriding it to not annoy the general public. Tesla may need to consider +10mph adjustment where the Speed limits are 30 mph and higher on surface roads.


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## GDN

Ksb466 said:


> For those who bought FSD, do you expect to use it in everyday driving (yes, I'm asking you assume it's released this year) in it's near current form or will it feel like Summon, a cool party trick, try it a few times and not use it much until many iterations years later?
> I'm looking forward to it but My thinking is the +5mph limit makes it impractical and I'll always be overriding it to not annoy the general public. Tesla may need to consider +10mph adjustment where the Speed limits are 30 mph and higher on surface roads.


If I were commuting everyday I would use it a decent amount. I'm working from home at least through the end of this year, so when I do get in the car to go somewhere I look forward to doing the majority of the driving myself.


----------



## DocScott

JasonF said:


> In this case, Tesla might derail a class action simply by asserting that they did deliver something for the value (in this case, NoA and a free HW3 upgrade) even if they were unable to deliver exactly what was promised.


People who purchased FSD in 2018 did _not_ get NOA as part of that purchase. NOA was part of EAP at the time, and FSD was an additional charge on top of EAP.

They did get the HW3 upgrade which as far as we can tell at this date does nothing at all for the person who owns the car.

I don't think Tesla saying they delivered value for the purchase would be a winning argument. Their best shot, I think, would be to argue that it was like a Kickstarter campaign, and that purchasers knew (or should have known) that the project might not pan out and that their money didn't get them anything.


----------



## Bigriver

shareef777 said:


> "Coming later this year" has been on the config page every year for the past 3 years.


It may feel that way, but the web archives say otherwise. Here is an attempt at an extremely brief overview:

There were the EAP/FSD options from late 2016 to October 2018, at which time they took FSD off menu. There was no delineation on what FSD features would be provided by when.

When FSD came back on the menu in April-ish 2019, EAP had disappeared and the description of FSD included what it can do now (mostly what was previously in EAP) vs what is "coming later this year." Two things were identified:

Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs
Automatic driving on city streets 
These words remained the same until March 2020. As of April 1, 2020, the wording was changed to "upcoming" and the only item was:

Autosteer on city streets
I found an example as late as January 20, 2021 that still said "upcoming". Then by March 15, 2021, the wording was changed back to "coming later this year" with the auto steer on city streets as the only identified feature beyond what is currently available.

So if someone bought FSD between April 2019 and March 2020, I suppose they have a case that Tesla has defaulted on their promise regarding city streets. For the rest of us, I guess we have to wallow in our angst that it is taking longer than we had hoped. ☹ I am sympathetic to the angst, but also remain hopeful that transferring FSD will be a thing.

I can provide more specific dates and links to each of the items I describe above, but they are on my computer that is on strike at the moment.


----------



## shareef777

Bigriver said:


> It may feel that way, but the web archives say otherwise. Here is an attempt at an extremely brief overview:
> 
> There were the EAP/FSD options from late 2016 to October 2018, at which time they took FSD off menu. There was no delineation on what FSD features would be provided by when.
> 
> When FSD came back on the menu in April-ish 2019, EAP had disappeared and the description of FSD included what it can do now (mostly what was previously in EAP) vs what is "coming later this year." Two things were identified:
> 
> Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs
> Automatic driving on city streets
> These words remained the same until March 2020. As of April 1, 2020, the wording was changed to "upcoming" and the only item was:
> 
> Autosteer on city streets
> I found an example as late as January 20, 2021 that still said "upcoming". Then by March 15, 2021, the wording was changed back to "coming later this year" with the auto steer on city streets as the only identified feature beyond what is currently available.
> 
> So if someone bought FSD between April 2019 and March 2020, I suppose they have a case that Tesla has defaulted on their promise regarding city streets. For the rest of us, I guess we have to wallow in our angst that it is taking longer than we had hoped. ☹ I am sympathetic to the angst, but also remain hopeful that transferring FSD will be a thing.
> 
> I can provide more specific dates and links to each of the items I describe above, but they are on my computer that is on strike at the moment.


Config page stated clearly (for FSD):

Coming later this year: "Automatic driving on city streets"

That was what I was sold back in March 2019.


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## Madmolecule

FSD will not happen this year. As I have stated many times I believe the Board of Directors has determined that the risk is way too high to release it. It has come along way, but the reality is that it is just too difficult with life safety involved. I believe the most we can hope for in the next five years is in advanced driving assist. As soon as the car takes the liability from the driver it literally becomes a huge liability for Tesla. Just watching the Texas crash debate, if FSD had gone wide, and there were even 10 major auto pilot accidents a month, could you imagine the press. This is why I believe tesla will be heading more towards the life pilot instead of auto pilot, that will be focusing on the driver experience and not replacing the driver.

class action suits are useless and only make a return for the attorneys. We can take pride that we were the “Tesla Longs”, that invested in the technology and because we bought the dream tesla was able to succeed.

this is still no excuse for stagnant software with the only upgrades being future teases of half baked beta’s. Are they focused only on Gigafactory’s or is there a missing link?


Elon Electrify Cuba
Prove your technology benefits humanity, or is Mars just like FSD, something far out that will never be delivered in our lifetime.


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## shareef777

Madmolecule said:


> FSD will not happen this year. As I have stated many times I believe the Board of Directors has determined that the risk is way too high to release it. It has come along way, but the reality is that it is just too difficult with life safety involved. I believe the most we can hope for in the next five years is in advanced driving assist. As soon as the car takes the liability from the driver it literally becomes a huge liability for Tesla. Just watching the Texas crash debate, if FSD had gone wide, and there were even 10 major auto pilot accidents a month, could you imagine the press. This is why I believe tesla will be heading more towards the life pilot instead of auto pilot, that will be focusing on the driver experience and not replacing the driver.
> 
> class action suits are useless and only make a return for the attorneys. We can take pride that we were the "Tesla Longs", that invested in the technology and because we bought the dream tesla was able to succeed.
> 
> this is still no excuse for stagnant software with the only upgrades being future teases of half baked beta's. Are they focused only on Gigafactory's or is there a missing link?
> 
> Elon Electrify Cuba
> Prove your technology benefits humanity, or is Mars just like FSD, something far out that will never be delivered in our lifetime.


We get it's hard, and many of us said it's still 5+ years out (I know I did). So it bears repeating: allow us to transfer our FSD to another vehicle. THAT is the inexcusable part, not the lack of release.


----------



## JasonF

shareef777 said:


> We get it's hard, and many of us said it's still 5+ years out (I know I did). So it bears repeating: allow us to transfer our FSD to another vehicle. THAT is the inexcusable part, not the lack of release.


FSD from what I've seen in videos is probably pretty close to being as good as a new human driver. That's not quite good enough for most of us, because it's frustrating for an experienced driver to be a passenger to a teenager behind the wheel. A short time later, though, it will be as good as an average driver. That's good enough to get by, but not good enough to be allowed by regulators.

The problem is, even if FSD becomes as good as an average driver, and crashes _occasionally_, that's not going to earn it a good enough reputation to get it approved for U.S. roads, at least long term. People are terrified of automated machines that has lives in its hands. So FSD has to be near a perfect driver to survive regulatory scrutiny.

In other words, even if FSD is ready this year, it won't really _be ready_. That makes it nearly impossible to predict exactly when what people paid for it becomes worthwhile.


----------



## Mr. Spacely

It doesn't matter if your financed your car, have since sold it, or if you did or didn't opt out of the arbitration clause. Plenty of lawyers will take this class action on. Anyone can sue anyone. And the judge may not allow Tesla to arbitrate. And if arbitration is allowed, it is still a method to to get our money back...


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## JasonF

Mr. Spacely said:


> It doesn't matter if your financed your car, have since sold it, or if you did or didn't opt out of the arbitration clause. Plenty of lawyers will take this class action on. Anyone can sue anyone. And the judge may not allow Tesla to arbitrate. And if arbitration is allowed, it is still a method to to get our money back...


If history of class actions is any guide, you won't get your money back. You might get something like $200, or a $500 discount on a new Tesla. The lawyers would take the rest of it. Class never end up being about getting money back, they end up being about punishing the company for getting away with something.

Unfortunately what that might cause in the long run is for Tesla to start behaving more like GM and Ford, and: a) simply not tell us about any upcoming features until they're released so they aren't liable for broken promises; and b) possibly stop giving older cars major software or hardware upgrades so future class action sizes are limited.

I'm not saying it's a terrible idea, just be aware of all of the consequences, and just what kind of Tesla you want to deal with in the future. Because it's really not about getting your money back.


----------



## shareef777

JasonF said:


> If history of class actions is any guide, you won't get your money back. You might get something like $200, or a $500 discount on a new Tesla. The lawyers would take the rest of it. Class never end up being about getting money back, they end up being about punishing the company for getting away with something.
> 
> Unfortunately what that might cause in the long run is for Tesla to start behaving more like GM and Ford, and: a) simply not tell us about any upcoming features until they're released so they aren't liable for broken promises; and b) possibly stop giving older cars major software or hardware upgrades so future class action sizes are limited.
> 
> I'm not saying it's a terrible idea, just be aware of all of the consequences, and just what kind of Tesla you want to deal with in the future. Because it's really not about getting your money back.


There's nothing wrong with demanding Tesla fix their unethical business practice of taking money for nothing, and if your arguing, but the other side is worse, then that's not a very good argument.


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## JasonF

shareef777 said:


> There's nothing wrong with demanding Tesla fix their unethical business practice of taking money for nothing, and if your arguing, but the other side is worse, then that's not a very good argument.


All I'm saying is be aware of what your goals are. If it's getting the money you paid for FSD back, that's very unlikely to happen from a class action lawsuit. If the goal is to punish Tesla and make them change their behavior from self-promotion to self-protection (like most of the other big automakers do), it's probably going to work well in that respect.


----------



## shareef777

JasonF said:


> All I'm saying is be aware of what your goals are. If it's getting the money you paid for FSD back, that's very unlikely to happen from a class action lawsuit. If the goal is to punish Tesla and make them change their behavior from self-promotion to self-protection (like most of the other big automakers do), it's probably going to work well in that respect.


I get what you're saying and agree that class actions rarely benefit the consumer. You know what else doesn't benefit the consumer? Taking thousands of dollars and giving them nothing back. So yeah, I'm a pretty petty B***H :laughing: and will gladly sit by and watch Tesla get slapped around by lawyers for a bit so that they go into "self-whatever" mode so long as it means they no longer take money from people and provide nothing in return.


----------



## Bigriver

@shareef777, you said you bought FSD when it stated the by end of year time frame for city streets FSD. Why don't you file an arbitration case about this? Here is a link to a thread at TMC where someone went to arbitration when Tesla took away free premium connectivity on used cars. It looks like it was pretty straightforward and was resolved favorably in less than a month. And Tesla extended the fix to all Tesla owners in the same situation.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/premium-connectivity-in-cpo-mx.177778/
Make your requested resolution that FSD can be transferred to a new Tesla, and if you are successful, we will name a holiday after you, or maybe name this transfer feature after you. 😀


----------



## shareef777

Bigriver said:


> @shareef777, you said you bought FSD when it stated the by end of year time frame for city streets FSD. Why don't you file an arbitration case about this? Here is a link to a thread at TMC where someone went to arbitration when Tesla took away free premium connectivity on used cars. It looks like it was pretty straightforward and was resolved favorably in less than a month. And Tesla extended the fix to all Tesla owners in the same situation.
> https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/premium-connectivity-in-cpo-mx.177778/
> Make your requested resolution that FSD can be transferred to a new Tesla, and if you are successful, we will name a holiday after you, or maybe name this transfer feature after you. 😀


I'd sell both my Tesla's and just go with another company before I'd go through the courts. If there's anything I hate more then greedy corporations, it's the incompetent court system.


----------



## Needsdecaf

Madmolecule said:


> FSD will not happen this year. As I have stated many times I believe the Board of Directors has determined that the risk is way too high to release it. It has come along way, but the reality is that it is just too difficult with life safety involved. I believe the most we can hope for in the next five years is in advanced driving assist. As soon as the car takes the liability from the driver it literally becomes a huge liability for Tesla. Just watching the Texas crash debate, if FSD had gone wide, and there were even 10 major auto pilot accidents a month, could you imagine the press. This is why I believe tesla will be heading more towards the life pilot instead of auto pilot, that will be focusing on the driver experience and not replacing the driver.
> 
> class action suits are useless and only make a return for the attorneys. We can take pride that we were the "Tesla Longs", that invested in the technology and because we bought the dream tesla was able to succeed.
> 
> this is still no excuse for stagnant software with the only upgrades being future teases of half baked beta's. Are they focused only on Gigafactory's or is there a missing link?
> 
> Elon Electrify Cuba
> Prove your technology benefits humanity, or is Mars just like FSD, something far out that will never be delivered in our lifetime.


This.

This is the big thing that most people don't realize.

In order for the F in FSD to be FULL, then Tesla MUST own the liability for what's happening while the car is operating. And they can still skirt that now that the car is "beta" and you are required to monitor the situation.

I think that the crash here in The Woodlands has completely torpedoed FSD for the time being. Look at how this thing was covered on a car that wasn't even equipped with FSD! I mean, there was next to zero concrete evidence that this accident was Tesla's fault, but one stray phrase from the Constable and suddenly it's national news and the NTSB is investigating. I don't think that there is any way that Tesla releases a true L3 or above system any time soon. Not until the Legal dept is satisfied with being covered 110%.


----------



## Bigriver

shareef777 said:


> I'd sell both my Tesla's and just go with another company before I'd go through the courts. If there's anything I hate more then greedy corporations, it's the incompetent court system.


Again, not a lawyer, but I see the arbitration process as different than "the courts." I have a friend who is an arbitration judge and it seems that common sense is one of the elements that comes into play, perhaps more than in a courtroom. I think the process is one that a lay person can follow without too much difficulty. I truly would give it a go if I thought Tesla had fallen down on something significant that they were contractually obligated to have provided to me.


----------



## JasonF

Needsdecaf said:


> I think that the crash here in The Woodlands has completely torpedoed FSD for the time being. Look at how this thing was covered on a car that wasn't even equipped with FSD! I mean, there was next to zero concrete evidence that this accident was Tesla's fault, but one stray phrase from the Constable and suddenly it's national news and the NTSB is investigating. I don't think that there is any way that Tesla releases a true L3 or above system any time soon. Not until the Legal dept is satisfied with being covered 110%.


I thought the NTSB completed that investigation and found Autopilot wasn't even used?

The issue is that people are used to the plodding pace and silence from most other automakers until a new driver assist feature is tested behind closed doors, and lawyers approve it as being free of company liability. That's what most people consider "safe". Tesla is therefore considered "unsafe" by most people because it releases beta features for the public to test. I'm not saying what Tesla is doing is better, but it's certainly not what people are used to.

I personally like that they let owners try out bleeding edge features. But at the same time, I worry that because motor vehicles are involved, and are subject to government regulation...I think someday, if Tesla doesn't back off from their warp speed development reputation, the government will do it for them. And that would mean while they might invent Autopilot or FSD with cameras first, they would then have to subject them to onerous government testing and verification - and by the time that's done, GM and Ford (fast-tracked because their development is considered "safe") will have their own versions on the market. Tesla could end up losing what makes them unique because they're trying too hard to be unique.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Tesla is talking to regulators and regulators are regulating. We even see their discussions sometimes. The media tends to hype these things to be worse than they are. It's a dance since Tesla is pushing things but I don't see the limit as regulators right now or insurance. The limit is the technology isn't done. I imagine the second Tesla feels its limited by regulators they are going to make a big stink about it. I also don't see lawyers holding things up too much. Tesla will always have some liability but clearly Tesla is willing to take risks if they feel the technology ready.


----------



## Needsdecaf

JasonF said:


> I thought the NTSB completed that investigation and found Autopilot wasn't even used?
> 
> The issue is that people are used to the plodding pace and silence from most other automakers until a new driver assist feature is tested behind closed doors, and lawyers approve it as being free of company liability. That's what most people consider "safe". Tesla is therefore considered "unsafe" by most people because it releases beta features for the public to test. I'm not saying what Tesla is doing is better, but it's certainly not what people are used to.
> 
> I personally like that they let owners try out bleeding edge features. But at the same time, I worry that because motor vehicles are involved, and are subject to government regulation...I think someday, if Tesla doesn't back off from their warp speed development reputation, the government will do it for them. And that would mean while they might invent Autopilot or FSD with cameras first, they would then have to subject them to onerous government testing and verification - and by the time that's done, GM and Ford (fast-tracked because their development is considered "safe") will have their own versions on the market. Tesla could end up losing what makes them unique because they're trying too hard to be unique.


Yes, the NTSB showed that they were unable to activate Autopilot using an exemplar car. But that's two weeks down the road and never gets reported. Meanwhile in the court of public opinion, Tesla makes killer cars...

And juries are made up of people. Often people who can't understand tech, and hate big companies with deep pockets. So while Tesla may be legally in the clear, they have an uphill fight to prove it.


----------



## TeslaTony310

Ksb466 said:


> Only Elon can render a bunch of our hardware useless and call it a gigantic step foreward. I wonder if they will have us replace radar parts when we need to replace bumpers In accidents.


What's a bunch?? Only the radar is being removed from the software stack....


----------



## shareef777

JasonF said:


> I thought the NTSB completed that investigation and found Autopilot wasn't even used?
> 
> The issue is that people are used to the plodding pace and silence from most other automakers until a new driver assist feature is tested behind closed doors, and lawyers approve it as being free of company liability. That's what most people consider "safe". Tesla is therefore considered "unsafe" by most people because it releases beta features for the public to test. I'm not saying what Tesla is doing is better, but it's certainly not what people are used to.
> 
> I personally like that they let owners try out bleeding edge features. But at the same time, I worry that because motor vehicles are involved, and are subject to government regulation...I think someday, if Tesla doesn't back off from their warp speed development reputation, the government will do it for them. And that would mean while they might invent Autopilot or FSD with cameras first, they would then have to subject them to onerous government testing and verification - and by the time that's done, GM and Ford (fast-tracked because their development is considered "safe") will have their own versions on the market. Tesla could end up losing what makes them unique because they're trying too hard to be unique.


Not too worried about that. Every other manufacturer has been selling vehicles with lane keep assist (LKA) and adaptive cruise control (ACC) that are just ABYSMAL. I've had a 2018 Honda Accord, 2020 Honda CRV and 2020 Honda Pilot that all came with LKA/ACC and all three vehicles (manufactured within 2 years of each other) behaved differently. The Pilot being the worst. All three of the LKA/ACC systems were marketed the same (still do on Honda's website), yet there's a MAJOR difference. ACC on the Accord brings the car to a complete stop, but not on the Pilot. Let me just say, it was a scary moment when I learned that.


----------



## shareef777

Needsdecaf said:


> Yes, the NTSB showed that they were unable to activate Autopilot using an exemplar car. But that's two weeks down the road and never gets reported. Meanwhile in the court of public opinion, Tesla makes killer cars...
> 
> And juries are made up of people. Often people who can't understand tech, and hate big companies with deep pockets. So while Tesla may be legally in the clear, they have an uphill fight to prove it.


Remember the Toyota accelerator issue? Toyota's still doing fine (#1 non-truck sales in the country). People have short memories I suppose.


----------



## Klaus-rf

shareef777 said:


> Remember the Toyota accelerator issue? Toyota's still doing fine (#1 non-truck sales in the country). People have short memories I suppose.


Do not forget the Audi "Unintended acceleration" case in the early 80's (late 70's??). Seriously affected US sales for DECADES. I have friends that still will not buy any Ford product - just to punish the company - because of the "Pinto Fire" one-time incident in the 70's. that clearly was not Ford's fault.

And the 300,000+ GM fires due to faulty ignition switches? No one seems to care.


----------



## shareef777

shareef777 said:


> Selling their vehicle doesn't exclude them from a potential class-action. Just look at most of the tech companies. I've received notices (and payments) for plenty of Apple devices long after I sold/tossed them.


Look at that! Class actions DO payoff!


----------



## JasonF

shareef777 said:


> Look at that! Class actions DO payoff!


They're almost always something like $25 off a new device.


----------



## shareef777

JasonF said:


> They're almost always something like $25 off a new device.


Forgot to attach the image. Filed this one a long while back. Thing is, I only paid $50 for the headphones, but they broke after 6mo because I used them in the rain. Though I agree it's rare to get anything of value from class action suits. Just found it funny we were discussing the topic and a check arrived right afterward 😂

Let's now talk about how I'm owed a brand new Model S for my 10% range loss 👀


----------



## TeslaTony310

shareef777 said:


> Look at that! Class actions DO payoff!
> View attachment 38526


What the hell!! I had Powerbeats 2!! What was this for??


----------



## shareef777

TeslaTony310 said:


> What the hell!! I had Powerbeats 2!! What was this for??


🤷‍♂️, got a letter, filled it out … profit 😂

more info: https://www.macrumors.com/2021/05/18/powerbeats-2-lawsuit-payouts/


----------



## vinnie97

shareef777 said:


> We get it's hard, and many of us said it's still 5+ years out (I know I did). So it bears repeating: allow us to transfer our FSD to another vehicle. THAT is the inexcusable part, not the lack of release.


OR a discount rated on a future vehicle.


----------



## Madmolecule

I just hope this forces Tesla to define what in the world FSD is. What navigation on city streets is and what it is not. This goes for auto pilot and summon or the advance versions which just add more to the confusion. It all leads to a lot of Fantasy Uncertainty and Doubt. It got them leaders in the market, but the EV’s are coming on strong, and it’s time for Tesla to define their vehicles. I am convinced the secrecy is because it’s not trying to protect intellectual property but protecting the lack there of. They have not even put out the specs on the cold thrusters for the roadster. Do you really think the industry is ready to copy that, come on. It will be a party gimmick at best. Also when can we expect some decent infotainment. I hope the next version will at least me 2002 winamp standards. Also my big Georgia Harry dogs hate the 66° minimum on dog mode. How about some hot weather weather mode upgrades. The over the air upgrades, which used to be a perceived huge advantage, has now become the excuse to ship half-baked products. And then they start to focus on future hardware and forget about the customer base. I’m worried the cyber truck will even become the AMC of the future. It was radical and cool at first, and then Peoples thought what in the world were they thinking. Hopefully Tesla knows better but I am very concerned they have lost their way


Elon electrify Cuba and stop the silliness.


----------



## shareef777

vinnie97 said:


> OR a discount rated on a future vehicle.


Very curious how many existing Tesla owners are not trading in for a new Tesla because of the large investment in FSD and the huge hit they'd take in not getting ANYTHING in return for it.

👈...I know one


----------



## slacker775

shareef777 said:


> Very curious how many existing Tesla owners are not trading in for a new Tesla because of the large investment in FSD and the huge hit they'd take in not getting ANYTHING in return for it.
> 
> 👈...I know one


That's a very fair question. If you were to take FSD out of the equation entirely, I could be enticed to bump up to a newer 3 or a Y at this point but with the FSD investment already made and the higher costs of 'new' FSD - if I were to even go there - make the math not particularly favorable. Tesla offers me about 35k on trade for my 2018 LR w/FSD. I'm curious what their offer would be w/o FSD. Still 35k? 25k?


----------



## shareef777

slacker775 said:


> That's a very fair question. If you were to take FSD out of the equation entirely, I could be enticed to bump up to a newer 3 or a Y at this point but with the FSD investment already made and the higher costs of 'new' FSD - if I were to even go there - make the math not particularly favorable. Tesla offers me about 35k on trade for my 2018 LR w/FSD. I'm curious what their offer would be w/o FSD. Still 35k? 25k?


I'm offered $48k on my 2019 Perf w/ FSD (20k mi). There's absolutely no way they're including any credit for FSD. The car was $67k new. A $10k hit after a couple years is pretty bad but not unheard of. Almost $20k is unacceptable for any vehicle and can only be attributable to the total loss in value from the FSD investment. The constant delays absolutely decimated the value of FSD and Tesla is foolish enough to think increasing the price of FSD means anything to anyone outside of Tesla HQ.


----------



## Needsdecaf

shareef777 said:


> Very curious how many existing Tesla owners are not trading in for a new Tesla because of the large investment in FSD and the huge hit they'd take in not getting ANYTHING in return for it.
> 
> 👈...I know one


Wonder how many people are not trading in for a New Tesla because they are tired of the FSD lies, mis-representations and are disappointed that the company seems to have focused much of their energy on something that really isn't all that important to most people who would have bought the car anyway?

👈👈


----------



## shareef777

Needsdecaf said:


> Wonder how many people are not trading in for a New Tesla because they are tired of the FSD lies, mis-representations and are disappointed that the company seems to have focused much of their energy on something that really isn't all that important to most people who would have bought the car anyway?
> 
> 👈👈


Personally, FSD is the only gripe I have with Tesla. My 3 has lived up to all my expectations, has been absolutely trouble/maintenance free, and is still a blast to drive every time I get in it. It's why we finally jumped in and ordered a Y to be our 2nd car (sans FSD). At the end of the day, their focus SHOULD be on FSD as people have paid big dollars for that feature and have nothing to show for it. Everyone else (including my upcoming Y) isn't owed anything extra after delivery.


----------



## vinnie97

Madmolecule said:


> I just hope this forces Tesla to define what in the world FSD is. What navigation on city streets is and what it is not. This goes for auto pilot and summon or the advance versions which just add more to the confusion. It all leads to a lot of Fantasy Uncertainty and Doubt. It got them leaders in the market, but the EV's are coming on strong, and it's time for Tesla to define their vehicles. I am convinced the secrecy is because it's not trying to protect intellectual property but protecting the lack there of. They have not even put out the specs on the cold thrusters for the roadster. Do you really think the industry is ready to copy that, come on. It will be a party gimmick at best. Also when can we expect some decent infotainment. I hope the next version will at least me 2002 winamp standards. Also my big Georgia Harry dogs hate the 66° minimum on dog mode. How about some hot weather weather mode upgrades. The over the air upgrades, which used to be a perceived huge advantage, has now become the excuse to ship half-baked products. And then they start to focus on future hardware and forget about the customer base. I'm worried the cyber truck will even become the AMC of the future. It was radical and cool at first, and then Peoples thought what in the world were they thinking. Hopefully Tesla knows better but I am very concerned they have lost their way
> 
> Elon electrify Cuba and stop the silliness.


The cybertruck design has been polarizing since it was unveiled, so I don't think that's changed. This is the year of Mad Max, so it's even more pertinent.  As for the OTA firmware upgrades, I've also lost interest and have put off even adding the latest incremental release for the last couple of weeks. Big meh from me.


----------



## FRC

FSD, free supercharging/connectivity are keeping me in my current P3D until it dies. Otherwise, I'd already be in a Performance Y.


----------



## iChris93

shareef777 said:


> The car was $67k new.


What would it be new now?


----------



## shareef777

iChris93 said:


> What would it be new now?


Just priced it out, $68k after recent price increases.


----------



## shareef777

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-vision-model-3-model-y-may-2021-no-radar/amp/
This is mind numbing. Why remove radar before "Tesla Vision" is ready!? This really feels like a step backwards. With FSD years behind schedule, moving off of radar now seems premature.


----------



## francoisp

shareef777 said:


> https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-vision-model-3-model-y-may-2021-no-radar/amp/
> This is mind numbing. Why remove radar before "Tesla Vision" is ready!? This really feels like a step backwards. With FSD years behind schedule, moving off of radar now seems premature.


First time I am not looking forward to an update. This time I'll let others be the guinea pigs and see how it goes.


----------



## garsh

shareef777 said:


> This is mind numbing. Why remove radar before "Tesla Vision" is ready!?


Tesla has always worked this way. They make the hardware changes in production as soon as they can, and then try to follow with software ASAP.

Remember when they switched from AP1 hardware (nVidia) to AP2? It took many, many months before cars with AP2 hardware could perform all the same actions as the AP1 cars.


----------



## JasonF

This is one of those times I'm happy to be in a strange software update schedule. I just got a "bug fixes" update this week, which means if there is another update coming soon, I'll probably be scheduled for it so late in the cycle that I'd skip it and get the one after it. Which in this case is perfect - if the Vision AP update is being distributed now, I'll miss that one and get the fixed one that comes after!

Of course that might be meaningless to me anyhow, having a 2018 model with HW 2.5...


----------



## shareef777

garsh said:


> Tesla has always worked this way. They make the hardware changes in production as soon as they can, and then try to follow with software ASAP.
> 
> Remember when they switched from AP1 hardware (nVidia) to AP2? It took many, many months before cars with AP2 hardware could perform all the same actions as the AP1 cars.


That may well have been fine in their early days. Not so now considering how they're always delayed and most outside of hardcore Tesla owners aren't used to this.


----------



## shareef777

shareef777 said:


> I'm offered $48k on my 2019 Perf w/ FSD (20k mi). There's absolutely no way they're including any credit for FSD. The car was $67k new. A $10k hit after a couple years is pretty bad but not unheard of. Almost $20k is unacceptable for any vehicle and can only be attributable to the total loss in value from the FSD investment. The constant delays absolutely decimated the value of FSD and Tesla is foolish enough to think increasing the price of FSD means anything to anyone outside of Tesla HQ.


Tesla has no shame . M3P with FSD and they're charging $10k MORE sans perf and FSD.


----------



## Long Ranger

shareef777 said:


> Tesla has no shame . M3P with FSD and they're charging $10k MORE sans perf and FSD.


It says that car has FSD. It also has low miles, white interior, and apparently the acceleration boost.


----------



## shareef777

Long Ranger said:


> It says that car has FSD. It also has low miles, white interior, and apparently the acceleration boost.


"FSD capable", ie comes with HW3. You just have to pay the low low price of $10k to wait every year for the end of the year 😂

Though looking at the pricing of a new order I can see that meaning "FSD included".


----------



## TeslaTony310

shareef777 said:


> "FSD capable", ie comes with HW3. You just have to pay the low low price of $10k to wait every year for the end of the year 😂


No that means that the feature is active on the vehicle, and will stay that way....


----------



## shareef777

TeslaTony310 said:


> No that means that the feature is active on the vehicle, and will stay that way....


So if FSD is included they're basically pricing the used vehicle at $5.5k less than new. That puts the $20k less than new on my offer into perspective. I get that there're other variables (but two clean titles, same year, and within a few thousand miles of each other shouldn't add up to that much difference). Unless as stated, FSD is not given any value on trade-ins (which was my original point).


----------



## TeslaTony310

shareef777 said:


> So if FSD is included they're basically pricing the used vehicle at $5.5k less than new. That puts the $20k less than new on my offer into perspective. I get that there're other variables (but two clean titles, same year, and within a few thousand miles of each other shouldn't add up to that much difference). Unless as stated, FSD is not given any value on trade-ins (which was my original point).


In essence, they're ignoring it on the trade-in end, and then re-selling it AGAIN to the new owner (as a bake-in to the price). Kind of a con when you think about it. They get 2 FSDs for 1 car, and no expenses associated with re-selling it.


----------



## Kizzy

garsh said:


> Tesla has always worked this way. They make the hardware changes in production as soon as they can, and then try to follow with software ASAP.
> 
> Remember when they switched from AP1 hardware (nVidia) to AP2? It took many, many months before cars with AP2 hardware could perform all the same actions as the AP1 cars.


My understanding was that they were kinda forced to do that after the Autopilot fatality and MobileEye stopped supplying them with the components used for AP1.
At least this time they're not starting from scratch since they've already been working on this, right (assuming their doing this without parity because they can't overlap with radar being installed anymore…).


----------



## Madmolecule

For a used vehicle tesla should not show EPA range. The should fully charge it to 100% and show what the range is there.


----------



## iChris93

Madmolecule said:


> For a used vehicle tesla should not show EPA range. The should fully charge it to 100% and show what the range is there.


Uhhh are you replying to someone? Seems off topic.


----------



## Madmolecule

iChris93 said:


> Uhhh are you replying to someone? Seems off topic


I was referencing about five post back when someone posted an ad for a used Tesla on the Tesla site. It is off-topic oh but I do think the manufacture should tell the truth about whether the car can fully self drive and what the range is. Also if someone is looking to buy a used car knowing what the predicted range by Tesla super computer on board would be a very useful statistic to know if it was a good value and how the previous owner treated it. I will continue to believe the teslas story that the batteries do not degrade as much as they show is BS until they prove me different. If the tesla service center can't calibrate or reset the BMS then I can only assume it does not need resetting and the range has truly been diminished that much. I just need a story that makes sense.


----------



## Mr. Spacely

From Electrek on June 25: 


> "I'm driving "alpha" 9, but we need to fix some obvious issues before releasing beta 9, hopefully next week-- Elon


It will most likely mean that the update will slip into July. This is the software update that Musk has been hyping up as "mind-blowing" and an important step toward Tesla achieving true full self-driving capabilities."

Is it finally coming?


----------



## Ksb466

Mr. Spacely said:


> From Electrek on June 25:
> 
> It will most likely mean that the update will slip into July. This is the software update that Musk has been hyping up as "mind-blowing" and an important step toward Tesla achieving true full self-driving capabilities."
> 
> Is it finally coming?


Ha, maybe but Im mentally prepared for around October, 1 yr from original beta launch. And even then something that is quirky enough to require more attention than regular driving for quite a while. July would be great though.


----------



## FRC

He's already been wrong by over 6 months. Who's to say that he's not just as wrong now? I have been thoroughly trained to believe nothing that comes from Elon's mouth or his tweet. [still patiently waiting for waypoints, too]


----------



## shareef777

Ksb466 said:


> Ha, maybe but Im mentally prepared for around October, 1 yr from original beta launch. And even then something that is quirky enough to require more attention than regular driving for quite a while. July would be great though.


At this point I'm more inclined to believe that they'll keep kicking the can down the road until either A they get sued and are forced to refund people for FSD or B the company just goes under.


----------



## Mr. Spacely

shareef777 said:


> At this point I'm more inclined to believe that they'll keep kicking the can down the road until either A they get sued and are forced to refund people for FSD or B the company *just goes under*.


That's not going to happen. With the stock this high they have been able to raise billions in cash...


----------



## iChris93

FRC said:


> He's already been wrong by over 6 months.


Just 6 months? Try years.


----------



## Klaus-rf

Maybe slightly off-topic - but does anyone have any experience with what the current implementation of FSD does with emergency vehicles or police? Does it slow down/pull over for an ambulance? Or a police car pulling it over?

Asking for a friend.


----------



## Mr. Spacely

Current version does nothing. I disengage if I see flashing lights ahead. Hopefully V.9 will have something programmed in...


----------



## tivoboy

I can say for sure though, this is one update I’m not going to install on the first day/week


----------



## Mr. Spacely

tivoboy said:


> I can say for sure though, this is one update I'm not going to install on the first day/week


I plan to install it the second it is available. This is what we have been waiting for! Obviously we should be very cautious with it until it is refined...


----------



## shareef777

Mr. Spacely said:


> That's not going to happen. With the stock this high they have been able to raise billions in cash...


My point was that FSD is starting to feel like vaporware.


----------



## wellerjohn

I’ve used 35K miles of my cars life without the FSD, that was promised my the end of 2019, then again by the end of 2020…. And now next week.


----------



## M3OC Rules

shareef777 said:


> My point was that FSD is starting to feel like vaporware.


It is vaporware but they are also working hard on it. This next update will be a major step forward but my guess is it will not be feature complete. I think it will still be reliant on map data which is flawed with no solution to either update it real time or replace it as one example. The logic of how to drive on the freeway still needs a lot of work and its not clear they have been working on that as another example. A lot of the work has been on infrastructure in the last year or two so we aren't seeing the progress. I'm sure they are thinking things will improve rapidly once the infrastructure is in place and they have Dojo running. But ultimately I'm guessing the tail will drag on for years.


----------



## shareef777

M3OC Rules said:


> It is vaporware but they are also working hard on it. This next update will be a major step forward but my guess is it will not be feature complete. I think it will still be reliant on map data which is flawed with no solution to either update it real time or replace it as one example. The logic of how to drive on the freeway still needs a lot of work and its not clear they have been working on that as another example. A lot of the work has been on infrastructure in the last year or two so we aren't seeing the progress. I'm sure they are thinking things will improve rapidly once the infrastructure is in place and they have Dojo running. But ultimately I'm guessing the tail will drag on for years.


This somewhat reminds me of Apple's AirPower, with the key difference being that Apple didn't take a single red cent from anyone to work on it so when time went on and it never release, no one really complained.


----------



## Mr. Spacely

...but this will be "Mind Blowing"- Musk. (Hopefully)


----------



## M3OC Rules

shareef777 said:


> This somewhat reminds me of Apple's AirPower, with the key difference being that Apple didn't take a single red cent from anyone to work on it so when time went on and it never release, no one really complained.


Actually it is the same. They promised a future feature to a product so that is baked into the cost and was used as a marketing tool. Similarly FSD is a bundle of features some of which work and some are future. Both misled on the timing. I'd also argue that similarly Tesla owners are pretty satisfied with their purchase although that I've never seen FSD satisfaction broken out.

In my opinion both were wrong to do it.


----------



## TeslaTony310

shareef777 said:


> My point was that FSD is starting to feel like vaporware.


It's not vaporware....it's in about 2K vehicles, right now. Just because you haven't experienced it, doesn't make it vaporware.


----------



## Chris350

Have to admit that the constant delay and push back on this software is upsetting.

As an owner for almost 3 years, it is clear that most if not all resources have been moved to just this local FSD and Tesla Vision piece.

Which is great and all, but it has basically stopped any additional features to get pushed to cars.... We got spoiled with updates coming on a somewhat frequent basis. Adding new features and surprises to our car experience.... New music channels / Tesla theatres / Games, etc.... This has just about all dried up... Would love additional music options (Sirius for one), TV Channels (Disney + for one) and also better highway FSD (quicker lane change / waypoints). I am sure that there are other items, but those just off the top on my brain....

So...... It appears that this Tesla-Vision and Local FSD has brought the added value to almost a stand still.

Here's hoping that they get over this bump in the road quickly...... Still allot of promised items to go (still waiting for solid auto-parking / Solid summon).


----------



## shareef777

M3OC Rules said:


> Actually it is the same. They promised a future feature to a product so that is baked into the cost and was used as a marketing tool. Similarly FSD is a bundle of features some of which work and some are future. Both misled on the timing. I'd also argue that similarly Tesla owners are pretty satisfied with their purchase although that I've never seen FSD satisfaction broken out.
> 
> In my opinion both were wrong to do it.


WHAT!? You paid for AirPower!? Don't tell me you bought a bridge in Brooklyn too 🤣


----------



## M3OC Rules

shareef777 said:


> WHAT!? You paid for AirPower!? Don't tell me you bought a bridge in Brooklyn too 🤣


I acknowledge Apple makes some really great best in class products and are extremely successful. But I avoid buying their products because of their tactics. I totally would be an all in Apple user if they wouldn't have been so hardnosed with Verizon in the early days. DROID. :tearsofjoy:


----------



## shareef777

M3OC Rules said:


> I acknowledge Apple makes some really great best in class products and are extremely successful. But I avoid buying their products because of their tactics. I totally would be an all in Apple user if they wouldn't have been so hardnosed with Verizon in the early days. DROID. :tearsofjoy:


I agree with you, but find that it's emblematic of practically every large corporation. Apparently there's no ill effect of making broken promises. But even then, I've never paid for something from Apple (or pretty much any other large company), and gotten zilch in return. Tesla seems to be the only large company that can get away with that.


----------



## DocScott

shareef777 said:


> I agree with you, but find that it's emblematic of practically every large corporation. Apparently there's no ill effect of making broken promises. But even then, I've never paid for something from Apple (or pretty much any other large company), and gotten zilch in return. Tesla seems to be the only large company that can get away with that.


Yeah, there's a difference between not getting a feature you thought would be part of your purchase and paying for a feature and getting nothing. For people who bought FSD in the EAP era, the latter is true.

I know, I know--the legalese in FSD always suggested it was a risk, like backing a Kickstarter. But it is weird to spend thousands of dollars on an option for a car and then, several years later, still have nothing to show for it.


----------



## slacker775

M3OC Rules said:


> I acknowledge Apple makes some really great best in class products and are extremely successful. But I avoid buying their products because of their tactics. I totally would be an all in Apple user if they wouldn't have been so hardnosed with Verizon in the early days. DROID. :tearsofjoy:


Why was the whole Apple vs Verizon (or any CDMA provider for that matter) purely Apple's fault? Apple didn't want the provider to have the massive control over the device to install their various crapware and avoid any updates so they can force upgrades. Apple was actually fighting more for the end user experience - and lets not be foolish and think there wasn't profit motivation as well. Apple changed the entire mobile industry and Tesla is trying to do the same with the auto industry. They aren't always succeeding, but at least they are trying. More than you can say about pretty much any other automaker.


----------



## JasonF

slacker775 said:


> Why was the whole Apple vs Verizon (or any CDMA provider for that matter) purely Apple's fault? Apple didn't want the provider to have the massive control over the device to install their various crapware and avoid any updates so they can force upgrades. Apple was actually fighting more for the end user experience - and lets not be foolish and think there wasn't profit motivation as well. Apple changed the entire mobile industry and Tesla is trying to do the same with the auto industry. They aren't always succeeding, but at least they are trying. More than you can say about pretty much any other automaker.


IIRC, Verizon wanted full control over the apps they would allow you to load onto your phone. Obviously that conflicted with Apple's plans, so they didn't go for it.


----------



## Kimmo57

Chris350 said:


> Have to admit that the constant delay and push back on this software is upsetting.
> 
> As an owner for almost 3 years, it is clear that most if not all resources have been moved to just this local FSD and Tesla Vision piece.
> 
> Which is great and all, but it has basically stopped any additional features to get pushed to cars.... We got spoiled with updates coming on a somewhat frequent basis. Adding new features and surprises to our car experience.... New music channels / Tesla theatres / Games, etc.... This has just about all dried up... Would love additional music options (Sirius for one), TV Channels (Disney + for one) and also better highway FSD (quicker lane change / waypoints). I am sure that there are other items, but those just off the top on my brain....
> 
> So...... It appears that this Tesla-Vision and Local FSD has brought the added value to almost a stand still.
> 
> Here's hoping that they get over this bump in the road quickly...... Still allot of promised items to go (still waiting for solid auto-parking / Solid summon).


Nevermind new features, how about just making the wiper UI decent... the one that has never ever been user friendly


----------



## M3OC Rules

slacker775 said:


> Why was the whole Apple vs Verizon (or any CDMA provider for that matter) purely Apple's fault? Apple didn't want the provider to have the massive control over the device to install their various crapware and avoid any updates so they can force upgrades. Apple was actually fighting more for the end user experience - and lets not be foolish and think there wasn't profit motivation as well. Apple changed the entire mobile industry and Tesla is trying to do the same with the auto industry. They aren't always succeeding, but at least they are trying. More than you can say about pretty much any other automaker.


Part of me thinks this is way off topic but maybe it isn't. These companies like Tesla aren't perfect. In some ways they provide excellent service to this customers and in other ways they are hostile. I wasn't trying to imply Verizon is the shining star but their service was more important to me than having an iPhone at the time. Apple did not have the clout at the time to force that deal. They were able to achieve their control goal however at the expense of allowing Android to gain a foothold. In hindsight, I think Verizon made the right choice, even though it was consumer hostile, and greatly benefits (as do we all) from having competition in the smartphone space.

This FSD business isn't the only thing Tesla is sacrificing today for the sake of tomorrow. Not supporting CarPlay and Android Auto means many infotainment features are subpar. The advantage is they are vertically integrated for cost benefit and control the experience. Also takes a page from Apple. Wherever Tesla is getting their map data from is much, much worse than Google which is also affecting FSD. Maybe its Apple. :tearsofjoy:


----------



## shareef777

M3OC Rules said:


> Part of me thinks this is way off topic but maybe it isn't. These companies like Tesla aren't perfect. In some ways they provide excellent service to this customers and in other ways they are hostile. I wasn't trying to imply Verizon is the shining star but their service was more important to me than having an iPhone at the time. Apple did not have the clout at the time to force that deal. They were able to achieve their control goal however at the expense of allowing Android to gain a foothold. In hindsight, I think Verizon made the right choice, even though it was consumer hostile, and greatly benefits (as do we all) from having competition in the smartphone space.
> 
> This FSD business isn't the only thing Tesla is sacrificing today for the sake of tomorrow. Not supporting CarPlay and Android Auto means many infotainment features are subpar. The advantage is they are vertically integrated for cost benefit and control the experience. Also takes a page from Apple. Wherever Tesla is getting their map data from is much, much worse than Google which is also affecting FSD. Maybe its Apple. :tearsofjoy:


Not quiet the Apples to Apples comparison though. You didn't buy an iPhone based off the promise that it'd eventually work with Verizon.

I can't think of a single example outside of kickstarter where people put money down and got nothing in return. ZERO companies outside of Tesla have done that (as far as I know).


----------



## garsh

Ok, I guess Elon is beginning to realize his "two weeks" estimates are sounding ridiculous. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1411072156239204356


----------



## JasonF

garsh said:


> Ok, I guess Elon is beginning to realize his "two weeks" estimates are sounding ridiculous.


Oh come on, no one remembers this?


----------



## shareef777

garsh said:


> Ok, I guess Elon is beginning to realize his "two weeks" estimates are sounding ridiculous.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1411072156239204356


Or he's hinting that FSD will be released about the same time we land humans on Mars (which honestly seems to be the reasonable timeline).


----------



## tivoboy

No later than Saturday. 7/10

Unless its later.


----------



## Kimmo57

https://electrek.co/2021/07/12/elon...-signals-hazards-police-lights-hand-gestures/
I hope this means that when someone flips the bird at the car, it makes a fart sound back.


----------



## Madmolecule

,Oh I wish they would stop with the pure vision, It is just as stupid as calling the hyper loop and air hockey table. Elon says humans are just two cameras on a weak gimbal. We actually have a few more senses than vision. By now it is expected that the AI system could spot emergency vehicles, Or even someone flipping the bird, or a policeman giving manual directions to an intersection. But they should also be using sound, and a whole cadre of sensors to measure other keys things. First of all it’s not pire vision because they use ultrasonics also, Why not sound, wind direction and velocity, road noise, historical data from the rode you’re traveling on, As well as real time data from other teslas. Many of these sensors could be replaced with machine learning. For example wind speed and direction could be taken from the Internet, as well as driving it from multiple Tesla’s is on the same road, and how there kilowatt performance varies. They also need load sensors, on all wheels. The AI should already know what to expect from the historical data and should only be verifying it with the vision and the other sensors.

Also if the Tesla engineers to used More microphones they might’ve realize earlier that it may be wise adding a little more insulation in the model 3, at whatever range reduction it caused

With sound you could determine whether the emergency vehicle, for example ambulance, was just doing transport, or there was an emergency.

If you ever have to say it’s a battle of 9’s, you are admitting defeat.

Also it’s another stupid name by Tesla, pure vision, nothing is pure. They need to come up with a better name like tesla conscience, or Tesla aware, but calling it pure vision will prove that the AI is neither


----------



## iChris93

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1416284907299647489Away from two weeks and back to the maybe - definitely formula.


----------



## Madmolecule

iChris93 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1416284907299647489Away from two weeks and back to the maybe - definitely formula.


2nd qtr 2022 at the earliest. Then they will blame it on regulators

Also the $25,000 Tesla has already been developed, it is just the model 3 without vaporware Or liability insurance for taking control from the driver. They will release at the same time they're able to get value from FSD, or when they realizes better as a remote bitcoin mining computer then FSD. Also remember there has been no roll out at all, Only testing amongst paid employees and controlled shills. It's just called product testing during development. Consider yourself plaid









maybe alloy vision, but pure vision is a 100% pure lie

Elon Electrify Cuba


----------



## JasonF

iChris93 said:


> Away from two weeks and back to the maybe - definitely formula.


----------



## Doug Johnson

M3OC Rules said:


> The last data point I know of was before the increase to $10k and was about 27%. Maybe it's gone down? It would be interesting to see how much the FSD Beta increased it and the price increase decreased it.


Please do explain how a publicly-owned company can have "private investors," thank you.
Edit: Does this mean Elon holds "private" meeting with investors, and shares with them information not available to other investors? (Sounds like another SEC investigation should be brewing!)


----------



## Doug Johnson

M3OC Rules said:


> The last data point I know of was before the increase to $10k and was about 27%. Maybe it's gone down? It would be interesting to see how much the FSD Beta increased it and the price increase decreased it.


Was the 27% adoption rate provided by Tesla? (I _guess _they'd be the only ones with access to the underlying information, wouldn't they?) Do you have any recollection when this was disclosed? Thanks!


----------



## Doug Johnson

FRC said:


> He's already been wrong by over 6 months. Who's to say that he's not just as wrong now? I have been thoroughly trained to believe nothing that comes from Elon's mouth or his tweet. [still patiently waiting for waypoints, too]


It's funny how to some of us, Elon's words related to time of an upcoming occurrence don't even register.


----------



## M3OC Rules

urquattro83 said:


> Please do explain how a publicly-owned company can have "private investors," thank you.
> Edit: Does this mean Elon holds "private" meeting with investors, and shares with them information not available to other investors? (Sounds like another SEC investigation should be brewing!)





urquattro83 said:


> Was the 27% adoption rate provided by Tesla? (I _guess _they'd be the only ones with access to the underlying information, wouldn't they?) Do you have any recollection when this was disclosed? Thanks!


Late 2019. There are reasons why a public company may need or want to disclose private information to another company or potential investor. One company thinking of buying another company for example. There are laws against trading on that information. I don't know any details of the meeting or if that number was wrongly leaked. The 27% number has been reported by many but probably has a single source. Feel free to investigate yourself.

It is being used by this guy to suggest it has a large impact on Tesla financials:


----------



## Doug Johnson

Thanks, there's sure a lot of speculation to get to a 35% take rate by Q1 2021, but I it'll be interesting to see what numbers are reported.


----------



## TeslaTony310

Madmolecule said:


> ,Oh I wish they would stop with the pure vision, It is just as stupid as calling the hyper loop and air hockey table. Elon says humans are just two cameras on a weak gimbal. We actually have a few more senses than vision. By now it is expected that the AI system could spot emergency vehicles, Or even someone flipping the bird, or a policeman giving manual directions to an intersection. But they should also be using sound, and a whole cadre of sensors to measure other keys things. First of all it's not pire vision because they use ultrasonics also, Why not sound, wind direction and velocity, road noise, historical data from the rode you're traveling on, As well as real time data from other teslas. Many of these sensors could be replaced with machine learning. For example wind speed and direction could be taken from the Internet, as well as driving it from multiple Tesla's is on the same road, and how there kilowatt performance varies. They also need load sensors, on all wheels. The AI should already know what to expect from the historical data and should only be verifying it with the vision and the other sensors.
> 
> Also if the Tesla engineers to used More microphones they might've realize earlier that it may be wise adding a little more insulation in the model 3, at whatever range reduction it caused
> 
> With sound you could determine whether the emergency vehicle, for example ambulance, was just doing transport, or there was an emergency.
> 
> If you ever have to say it's a battle of 9's, you are admitting defeat.
> 
> Also it's another stupid name by Tesla, pure vision, nothing is pure. They need to come up with a better name like tesla conscience, or Tesla aware, but calling it pure vision will prove that the AI is neither


You understand there's a compute budget, right??


----------



## Madmolecule

TeslaTony310 said:


> You understand there's a compute budget, right??


exactly there's clearly not enough budget, for FSD. The 9s have won again.
But you have cat quest. I know that's a big concern with the Tesla engineers. It might take a CPU upgrade for farts 2.0. Because of their high definition "pure fart" capabilities, They will require a subscription, if you want some of the modern farts like paleo or keto. I have been trying to offload the CPU lately by manually controlling the windshield wipers, I am trying to do my part. I can't stress enough that we did get cat quest for Christmas so I don't wanna sound like I'm complaining.

most machine learning is done in the cloud. That's why I predicted Tesla would be renaming their routes as missions. It would make sense to plan your routes for the next week. The over the air updates with download all the recent historical an AI information. Your vehicle will already know what to expect, before it got there. But real time learning, I don't think will ever cut it with multi ton high speed killing machines. I would like someone to explain to me why my car hasn't been able to learn my garage in three years.

Without historical big data on our missions, potholes in addition to the 9s, will continue to win. At least with a teenager you can say what in the world were you thinking when you ran straight into a pothole


----------



## TeslaTony310

Madmolecule said:


> exactly there's clearly not enough budget, for FSD. The 9s have won again.
> But you have cat quest. I know that's a big concern with the Tesla engineers. It might take a CPU upgrade for farts 2.0. Because of their high definition "pure fart" capabilities, They will require a subscription, if you want some of the modern farts like paleo or keto. I have been trying to offload the CPU lately by manually controlling the windshield wipers, I am trying to do my part. I can't stress enough that we did get cat quest for Christmas so I don't wanna sound like I'm complaining.
> 
> most machine learning is done in the cloud. That's why I predicted Tesla would be renaming their routes as missions. It would make sense to plan your routes for the next week. The over the air updates with download all the recent historical an AI information. Your vehicle will already know what to expect, before it got there. But real time learning, I don't think will ever cut it with multi ton high speed killing machines. I would like someone to explain to me why my car hasn't been able to learn my garage in three years.
> 
> Without historical big data on our missions, potholes in addition to the 9s, will continue to win. At least with a teenager you can say what in the world were you thinking when you ran straight into a pothole


The abomination that is this paragraph attempting to actually use correct syntax and punctuation turned me off to trying to figure out what mish-mash thoughts you were putting down there. Sorry 🤷‍♂️


----------



## Doug Johnson

For those on this forum, this is hilarious!


----------



## FRC

urquattro83 said:


> For those on this forum, this is hilarious!


The only part of this that I took exception with, was the statement that some other manufacturers have driver assist capabilities that are very similar to Tesla's. Obviously, this was filmed before Tesla dropped the HW3 price to $1,000 and indicated that that amount would not be in addition to the $10K FSD price.

I COMPLETELY agree with his assertion that Full Self Driving is misleading.

What part was hilarious, I don't know.


----------



## Doug Johnson

The author's take on naming the feature Full Self-Driving. Absolutely NONE of those words is accurate, ya' think?


----------



## FRC

Partially Self-Driving, yes. Self-Driving under Certain Circumstances, yes. Full Self- Driving, absolutely not, yet.


urquattro83 said:


> The author's take on naming the feature Full Self-Driving. Absolutely NONE of those words is accurate, ya' think?


----------



## bwilson4web

urquattro83 said:


> The author's take on naming the feature Full Self-Driving. Absolutely NONE of those words is accurate, ya' think?


Ask me after I take delivery of FSD. Which version did he do his (or your) hands-on review?

Regardless, he didn't discuss:

sensors - vision only vs more complex systems
geofenced - open anywhere versus limit to pre-mapped highways
driver monitor - driver input versus cabin video
I'm running the first FSD code stack that was released before the AI rewrite effort started. The reviewer apparently does not realize there is a first version. So he missed describing 'Summon.'

Bob Wilson


----------



## Madmolecule

Yesterday I had two pure vision, pure failures. A deer ran right out in front of me, at fairly slow speeds, in broad daylight, the car did not notice or see it or react. I was later bumped from behind, stopped at a traffic light, with no warning or alert. I did save both of the videos. Pure vision is not like having eyes in the back of your head. I did not realize I was going to be hit until I was hit. Luckily I saw the deer and reacted because the car did not. These are both basic every day occurrences that once again prove the AI is neither.


----------



## mrau

Lately I have been thinking of Full Self Driving as having the Full package of Self Driving features that Tesla offers. Things such as TACC, Summon, Lane Change, and Auto Steering. Instead of just a few of those features, I have the Full list of the features.

However, having the *Full* list of features does not mean the car can Fully self drive itself. Even though it seems that is what Tesla is selling it as.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Tesla deserves this and I think it's good for consumers to know what they are getting and not get it because it might actually be full self driving someday. One thing that he is misleading about is there are tons of spots where I use Autopilot where SuperCruise doesn't work and never will. He also wasn't clear about why Tesla calls it Full Self Driving. Its vaporware but they are saying they will deliver that. You shouldn't buy it before it's done but the fact that new features you may want could come is worth something. Also you don't have to pay $10k or $200/month to get basic Autopilot.


----------



## Doug Johnson

M3OC Rules said:


> Also you don't have to pay $10k or $200/month to get basic Autopilot.


Elon grossly misrepresents what's being offered. If it's called "Full Self-Driving," it should do exactly that!

For me, Autopilot will cost $3,000

Does anyone know why Elon refuses to offer a "resume" option on the cruse-control feature?


----------



## Mr. Spacely

Madmolecule said:


> I was later bumped from behind, stopped at a traffic light, with no warning or alert. Pure vision is not like having eyes in the back of your head. I did not realize I was going to be hit until I was hit.


OK, so what exactly did you want the car to do? No matter how good Teslas become in the future, you will continue get into accidents with cars driven by humans when they hit you from behind...


----------



## SalisburySam

urquattro83 said:


> Elon grossly misrepresents what's being offered. If it's called "Full Self-Driving," it should do exactly that!
> 
> For me, Autopilot will cost $3,000
> 
> Does anyone know why Elon refuses to offer a "resume" option on the cruse-control feature?


Presumably because a Robo taxi will not need it. This has been a sore spot for cruise control since Tesla's initial cars. Very unlikely to change.


----------



## JasonF

urquattro83 said:


> Elon grossly misrepresents what's being offered. If it's called "Full Self-Driving," it should do exactly that!


Autopilot also misrepresents what it does, kind of, if you're the average person who doesn't know how aviation works. If you do know, it does exactly as advertised.



Mr. Spacely said:


> OK, so what exactly did you want the car to do? No matter how good Teslas become in the future, you will continue get into accidents with cars driven by humans when they hit you from behind...


Get used to stuff like that. I cringe at the thought of the first gigantic lawsuit someone files because they believe Full Self Drive meant the car could not possibly get into a crash.


----------



## Doug Johnson

JasonF said:


> Autopilot also misrepresents what it does, kind of, if you're the average person who doesn't know how aviation works. If you do know, it does exactly as advertised.
> 
> .


Should a potential buyer need extensive research to have correct expectations of what the simple phrase "Full Self-Driving" means? I'm surprised legal claims have not ensued. (Remember, people in this forum are not a representative crosssection of the car-buying public.)


----------



## Doug Johnson

SalisburySam said:


> Presumably because a Robo taxi will not need it. This has been a sore spot for cruise control since Tesla's initial cars. Very unlikely to change.


I've noticed I can disable cruise-control by either tapping the right stalk upward, or by tapping the button on the end of that stalk. Tapping the button, though, generates a couple beeps, while lifting the stalk does not. Is there a more detailed difference between those two methods of defeating cruise-control? TIA


----------



## JasonF

urquattro83 said:


> I've noticed I can disable cruise-control by either tapping the right stalk upward, or by tapping the button on the end of that stalk. Tapping the button, though, generates a couple beeps, while lifting the stalk does not. Is there a more detailed difference between those two methods of defeating cruise-control? TIA


_Holding_ the button at the end forces the car into Park, and engages the parking brake. Tapping it once generates a warning about engaging Park while in motion.


----------



## Doug Johnson

JasonF said:


> _Holding_ the button at the end forces the car into Park, and engages the parking brake. Tapping it once generates a warning about engaging Park while in motion.


Thank you very much! No more button touching unless I'm stopped!


----------



## Doug Johnson

JasonF said:


> Autopilot also misrepresents what it does, kind of, if you're the average person who doesn't know how aviation works. If you do know, it does exactly as advertised.


So, Jason, are Tesla buyers expected to have aviation experience to not be mislead by Elon's words. This sees a stretch of logic, but there's a lot about Elon's claims that seem bogus to me. And, did I mention autopilot - as you have - or was my comment regarding validity of Elon's Full Self-Driving claims?


----------



## DocScott

JasonF said:


> Autopilot also misrepresents what it does, kind of, if you're the average person who doesn't know how aviation works. If you do know, it does exactly as advertised.


I'm beginning to wonder if the idea that the average person thinks Autopilot = "drives itself skillfully" isn't mostly spin.

Prior to Tesla, I think the most common everyday use of the word autopilot was in describing someone as "going on autopilot." That meant a person is proceeding without reacting much to what is happening around them, without making any decisions, etc.:

"The audience was getting restless, but the dinner speaker continued on autopilot."

That's a reasonably accurate characterization of Tesla autopilot.

To be clear where I stand, I'll reiterate what I've said before: I don't think there's anything wrong with the name of Tesla's Autopilot. But I do think Full Self-Driving is misleading and potentially legally actionable.


----------



## JasonF

urquattro83 said:


> So, Jason, are Tesla buyers expected to have aviation experience to not be mislead by Elon's words. This sees a stretch of logic, but there's a lot about Elon's claims that seem bogus to me. And, did I mention autopilot - as you have - or was my comment regarding validity of Elon's Full Self-Driving claims?


Most people think of aircraft autopilot as being able to fly the plane without any intervention, so that the pilots can even leave the ****pit or take a nap. But from what I've learned about it, even on airplanes, autopilot requires constant supervision. Just for example, it can easily overfly the destination unsupervised, and while advanced models try and navigate around storms, they're just as prone to flying right through one.


----------



## FRC

Some object to the term autopilot, I don't; I'll give Tesla that one. Full...Self...Driving, however, is a different matter. It describes what Tesla hopes the feature will someday be, not what it is today.


----------



## M3OC Rules

FRC said:


> Some object to the term autopilot, I don't; I'll give Tesla that one. Full...Self...Driving, however, is a different matter. It describes what Tesla hopes the feature will someday be, not what it is today.


Great summary. It's not that the name doesn't describe the feature. It's that you don't want Tesla to presell software before it's done.

They could call it the technology package and no one would know what that meant but no one would care and probably less people would buy it.


----------



## M3OC Rules

urquattro83 said:


> Should a potential buyer need extensive research to have correct expectations of what the simple phrase "Full Self-Driving" means? I'm surprised legal claims have not ensued. (Remember, people in this forum are not a representative crosssection of the car-buying public.)


Yes consumers need to do research. That's what test drives and consumer reports are for. Do you trust car salesmen? No one should. Also it doesn't take extensive research to find a bunch of people telling you the fsd package isn't full self driving and isn't even the better than competitor solutions.

People trust Elon because of past accomplishments. He seems to do the impossible. I think that's the difference in this case. He repeated yesterday that he's confident they will achieve fsd.


----------



## Doug Johnson

M3OC Rules said:


> Yes consumers need to do research. That's what test drives and consumer reports are for. Do you trust car salesmen? No one should. Also it doesn't take extensive research to find a bunch of people telling you the fsd package isn't full self driving and isn't even the better than competitor solutions.


Thanks, I now understand: it's okay to endlessly lie, because car salesmen do. Just for the record, "a bunch of people" isn't a statistically-valid sample on which to draw any conclusion, thanks. Maybe we can agree to call FSD MSDKFSD (Maybe Some Day, Kind-of Full Self-Driving)?


----------



## tivoboy

The conference call yesterday didn’t give any directional confidence that FSD will get farther much faster than it has. I think we’re still several months from a more general release of “beta” and anything more than that is probably not really happening this year. IMHO.


----------



## StevieC

I think people that object to the term Full Self Drive aren’t understanding it’s a work in progress. Many parts of it, like Auto Lane Change and Navigate on Autopilot work pretty well, and the great majority of us using it are still on V8. The elusive Navigate on City Streets is the hard part. 
But if Elon’s other company can send Dragon capsules to find the ISS and autonomously dock with it, it’s just a matter of time before our cars can navigate around town.


----------



## iChris93

StevieC said:


> Self Drive aren't understanding it's a work in progress. Many parts of it, like Auto Lane Change and Navigate on Autopilot work pretty well,


Work pretty well, but no signs of improvement.


----------



## StevieC

iChris93 said:


> Work pretty well, but no signs of improvement.


Well, we're not seeing any of the V9 improvements yet. Probably another 2 weeks! 🙄


----------



## Mr. Spacely

M3OC Rules said:


> Yes consumers need to do research. That's what test drives and consumer reports are for. Do you trust car salesmen? No one should. Also it doesn't take extensive research to find a bunch of people telling you the fsd package isn't full self driving *and isn't even the better than competitor solutions.*
> 
> People trust Elon because of past accomplishments. He seems to do the impossible. I think that's the difference in this case. He repeated yesterday that he's confident they will achieve fsd.


I'm not sure what auto manufacturer you are referring to? No one else has navigate on autopilot or even auto lane change. No one has Summon. GM Cruise hopes to have auto lane change in 2022. And you can't buy a Wamo car-- which is geo-fenced and won't work when there is a new road or construction.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Mr. Spacely said:


> I'm not sure what auto manufacturer you are referring to? No one else has navigate on autopilot or even auto lane change. No one has Summon. GM Cruise hopes to have auto lane change in 2022. And you can't buy a Wamo car-- which is geo-fenced and won't work when there is a new road or construction.


GM Supercruise though I want to be clear this is reviews from other people not my opinion. My point is just that it doesn't take a lot of research to be skeptical. I think the reviews are a little unfair but FSD doesn't work at all and some of the other features are almost worthless to me at least. I wouldn't recommend it at $10k for most people.


----------



## Mr. Spacely

Most reviews put Tesla out in front in self driving. Some magazines do like GM Cruise, but remember who is and who is not buying ads in those magazines...


----------



## slacker775

Has anyone been able to really use and compare Cruise vs AP/FSD? Isn't that only deployed in a pretty small number of cars, and even there, there are different revisions with different levels of capability?


----------



## SalisburySam

StevieC said:


> I think people that object to the term Full Self Drive aren't understanding it's a work in progress. Many parts of it, like Auto Lane Change and Navigate on Autopilot work pretty well, and the great majority of us using it are still on V8. The elusive Navigate on City Streets is the hard part.
> But if Elon's other company can send Dragon capsules to find the ISS and autonomously dock with it, it's just a matter of time before our cars can navigate around town.


My objection is that Tesla views FSD as aspirational. I viewed my check as buying a product.


----------



## Flashgj

When I placed my order in 2018 for the M3, I knew paying for FSD would be paying for something that may or may not happen and in my opinion was way, way off in the future if it did ever materialize. I therefore did not buy it at the time of purchase.
During the flash sale for $2000 I decided to take the gamble knowing that at least I would get the new HW3 upgrade out of the deal. Still not convinced that I will ever see true FSD on my M3, but I am neither upset or disappointed because I was really never expecting to see it actually materialize. 
If it ever does materialize though, I will be very happy.


----------



## Doug Johnson

Flashgj said:


> When I placed my order in 2018 for the M3, I knew paying for FSD would be paying for something that may or may not happen and in my opinion was way, way off in the future if it did ever materialize. I therefore did not buy it at the time of purchase.
> During the flash sale for $2000 I decided to take the gamble knowing that at least I would get the new HW3 upgrade out of the deal. Still not convinced that I will ever see true FSD on my M3, but I am neither upset or disappointed because I was really never expecting to see it actually materialize.
> If it ever does materialize though, I will be very happy.


Wasn't that sale for Autopilot?


----------



## FRC

Flashgj said:


> When I placed my order in 2018 for the M3, I knew paying for FSD would be paying for something that may or may not happen and in my opinion was way, way off in the future if it did ever materialize. I therefore did not buy it at the time of purchase.
> During the flash sale for $2000 I decided to take the gamble knowing that at least I would get the new HW3 upgrade out of the deal. Still not convinced that I will ever see true FSD on my M3, but I am neither upset or disappointed because I was really never expecting to see it actually materialize.
> If it ever does materialize though, I will be very happy.


You, sir, have expressed my actions and sentiments better than I ever could have. I did precisely the same things as you at precisely the same time. I am neither happy nor sad about the decisions I made. I'm perfectly happy about the EAP decision I originally made. It's the $2K FSD decision that causes angst. And I'll vote against myself here; If I couldn't afford the $2K gamble(and I knew it was a gamble), I had no business buying a Tesla to begin with.

We may or may nor differ here...My issue is not what I've received to date for my expenditure(notice I didn't say investment), it's that Elon (not Tesla), Elon, continues to promise features that his team cannot deliver. If anyone imagines that Elon's team is less frustrated by Elon's unfulfilled promises than his customers are, they need to get a reality slap by working for Tesla.

I've said this before, and I wish Elon was listening. Elon, we love your vision and your product. And we have proven over and over again that we have patience for building the system and figuring out the issues that we'll never fully understand. As believers, as buyers, our frustration is born, completely, of your(I'm talking to you here, Elon) continued promise that X will happen by Y, and that Z will happen by A. You're a genius Elon, figure this part out. Quit disappointing the people who plunk down many thousands of dollars to prove we support your vision.

I bet I'm not alone in saying this: Elon, It's OK to say "I don't know", it's OK to say "I made a mistake", it's OK to say I wish I had never said that. For the benefit of all of us on your side, put your ego aside, let others make public business statements, and spend your time being a visionary.


----------



## DocScott

urquattro83 said:


> Wasn't that sale for Autopilot?


It was both. $2k for those without AP to get AP; $2k for those with AP or EAP but without FSD to get FSD; and $4k for those without AP to go all the way to FSD.

Edit:
It was $2k for those without AP to get AP; $2k for those with EAP but without FSD to get FSD; and $5k for those without AP to go all the way to FSD. Thanks to @Long Ranger for the correction.


----------



## Doug Johnson

DocScott said:


> It was both. $2k for those without AP to get AP; $2k for those with AP or EAP but without FSD to get FSD; and $4k for those without AP to go all the way to FSD.


Holy, cow, that's close enough to to what I perceive to be its present value I'd have jumped on the offer! As a close friend mockingly quotes me as saying, "Oh, well..."


----------



## Doug Johnson

M3OC Rules said:


> I do agree Elon believes they are pre-selling FSD at a discount right now.


May I ask what you believe Elon believes FSD is worth in its present state of development?


----------



## Park2670

urquattro83 said:


> Holy, cow, that's close enough to to what I perceive to be its present value I'd have jumped on the offer! As a close friend mockingly quotes me as saying, "Oh, well..."


Same. If it was only $4k, it would be worth it. Right now and in the future, it will not be worth it for me.


----------



## Doug Johnson

JasonF said:


> It's primarily so Tesla can manage a fleet of self-driving taxis, and _secondarily_ so cash buyers can buy their own fleet (whether it's a fleet of one or more of them) of self-driving taxis to manage. What Tesla is selling you now (and since its announcement) is the chance to own your own self-driving fleet before it becomes restricted. I believe that because if Tesla does plan on managing a self-driving fleet, why would they want every single Tesla buyer potentially competing directly with them?
> 
> Instead, I think the future of FSD will be that you can sign paperwork to allow Tesla to use your car for a self-driving taxi service, and get paid a percentage of fares in return, plus allowances for cleaning and repair if needed.





Park2670 said:


> Same. If it was only $4k, it would be worth it. Right now and in the future, it will not be worth it for me.


I wonder what the financial impact to Tesla would be to offer FSD at $4,000 to $5,000? I do expect they's have a lot of income they do not now have. ()It's just a guess, and those are free!)

Edit: I'm sorry about quoting Jason. I had started to reply to him, but didn't. then when I replied to Park2670, my original non-reply was included. (Maybe a [Cancel] button could be added for when simple-minded person like me errs.)


----------



## Park2670

My theory has been they priced it so high to keep a minority of takers. Then when it finally gets released they will up the take rate. 

Lowers the amount of people having to pay everybody back if something goes wrong.


----------



## FRC

Park2670 said:


> My theory has been they priced it so high to keep a minority of takers. Then when it finally gets released they will up the take rate.
> 
> Lowers the amount of people having to pay everybody back if something goes wrong.


Reasonable theory. But it assumes a normal amount of business intelligence. I'm doubtful that Tesla leadership(Elon) possesses such.


----------



## M3OC Rules

urquattro83 said:


> May I ask what you believe Elon believes FSD is worth in its present state of development?


I don't know and it doesn't matter. That's the point. If he's selling something that he confidently believes will be worth $20k or more in the future for $10k it doesn't look expensive at $10k even if its currently worth $5k or $8k. I don't know how much influence he has on the pricing and what info/advice he's getting though. Regardless of what he thinks its worth, ultimately the consumer decides if they want to buy it or not. There are normal dynamics of how many people will buy it at each price point but also if the value appreciates they will potentially lose money by selling it early for less. They can also mess with customers by threatening to raise the price and having sales. Optimizing this isn't easy because they don't know when it will be done, if ever, so you have to factor in lawsuit threats, cars end of life time periods, and pissing off your customers.


----------



## Nom

Wow. The dead horse has been beaten here. Again and again.


----------



## Mr. Spacely

Nom said:


> Wow. The dead horse has been beaten here. Again and again.


It ain't dead until my car drives itself in the city as well as it does on the highway...


----------



## Klaus-rf

Mr. Spacely said:


> It ain't dead until my car drives itself in the city as well as it does on the highway...


FYI - It DOESN'T drive itself on the highway. it REQUIRES *CONSTANT* adult supervision.


----------



## Long Ranger

DocScott said:


> It was both. $2k for those without AP to get AP; $2k for those with AP or EAP but without FSD to get FSD; and $4k for those without AP to go all the way to FSD.


I think you got one detail wrong. I agree that during the 2019 fire sale it was $2k to go from nothing to AP, and $2k from EAP to FSD. However, going from nothing to FSD was $5k not $4k (AP to FSD was $3k).


----------



## francoisp

FRC said:


> I bet I'm not alone in saying this: Elon, It's OK to say "I don't know", it's OK to say "I made a mistake", it's OK to say I wish I had never said that.


I'm no lawyer but I doubt Tesla's legal department would agree with with your statement.


----------



## TeslaTony310

DocScott said:


> It was both. $2k for those without AP to get AP; $2k for those with AP or EAP but without FSD to get FSD; and $4k for those without AP to go all the way to FSD.


This wasn't the pricing.

The pricing was:

Nothing purchased:
3K Autopilot
2K FSD

If EAP purchased, 2K for FSD

Source: I bought both AP and FSD for 5K....


----------



## TeslaTony310

urquattro83 said:


> I wonder what the financial impact to Tesla would be to offer FSD at $4,000 to $5,000? I do expect they's have a lot of income they do not now have. ()It's just a guess, and those are free!)
> 
> Edit: I'm sorry about quoting Jason. I had started to reply to him, but didn't. then when I replied to Park2670, my original non-reply was included. (Maybe a [Cancel] button could be added for when simple-minded person like me errs.)


Some of the money they received for FSD has yet to be recognized as revenue, and won't be, until they release the features promised.


----------



## iChris93

TeslaTony310 said:


> Some of the money they received for FSD has yet to be recognized as revenue, and won't be, until they release the features promised.


Do we know what % has been recognized?


----------



## Doug Johnson

TeslaTony310 said:


> Some of the money they received for FSD has yet to be recognized as revenue, and won't be, until they release the features promised.


Shoot, Tony, if they dropped the price to $5,000,, they'd have lots of income to report tomorrow!

Edit: I'd even pay the sale price of $1,000 for HW3!


----------



## DocScott

TeslaTony310 said:


> This wasn't the pricing.
> 
> The pricing was:
> 
> Nothing purchased:
> 3K Autopilot
> 2K FSD
> 
> If EAP purchased, 2K for FSD
> 
> Source: I bought both AP and FSD for 5K....


I was incorrect, but so is this. Source: I bought AP for 2k. We both remembered our own price correctly, but got wrong the other prices.

@Long Ranger had it right:



Long Ranger said:


> I think you got one detail wrong. I agree that during the 2019 fire sale it was $2k to go from nothing to AP, and $2k from EAP to FSD. However, going from nothing to FSD was $5k not $4k (AP to FSD was $3k).


----------



## FRC

urquattro83 said:


> Shoot, Tony, if they dropped the price to $5,000,, they'd have lots of income to report tomorrow!
> 
> Edit: I'd even pay the sale price of $1,000 for HW3!


His point is that FSD sold today does not show up on the P&L until the FSD features are delivered. They recognized some % when smart summon was introduced, and some % when NOA was introduced, etc. But much of the $$$ that Tesla raked in for FSD is carried on the balance sheet as deferred income, basically a liability, and can't be moved to the P&L until more features are produced.


----------



## TeslaTony310

iChris93 said:


> Do we know what % has been recognized?


That I'm not sure of, but I know the last tranche left outstanding (as in, yet to cash in on) is ~500 million or so, per the last time they provided an update during the Earnings call.


----------



## TeslaTony310

DocScott said:


> I was incorrect, but so is this. Source: I bought AP for 2k. We both remembered our own price correctly, but got wrong the other prices.
> 
> @Long Ranger had it right:


Yes, this was right. My bad.


----------



## TeslaTony310

urquattro83 said:


> Shoot, Tony, if they dropped the price to $5,000,, they'd have lots of income to report tomorrow!
> 
> Edit: I'd even pay the sale price of $1,000 for HW3!


I doubt they ever will, again, especially with the subscription offer, which will move in price, eventually, too.


----------



## Doug Johnson

FRC said:


> His point is that FSD sold today does not show up on the P&L until the FSD features are delivered. They recognized some % when smart summon was introduced, and some % when NOA was introduced, etc. But much of the $$$ that Tesla raked in for FSD is carried on the balance sheet as deferred income, basically a liability, and can't be moved to the P&L until more features are produced.


Thanks, FRC, for the financial breakdown of how FSD income is accrued.

Are there economic or financial reasons to want to defer income?

I'm not looking for what anyone expects Elon to do or not do, I'm just trying to understand possible benefits of deferring income while waiting for a windfall (actual implementation of FSD) that may or may not come.

Again, thanks!


----------



## M3OC Rules

iChris93 said:


> Do we know what % has been recognized?


In Q1 2020 is was a little more than 50%.


----------



## M3OC Rules

I wonder if they have to defer any FSD income with the subscription. It doesn't make sense to me that they would because you get nothing beyond the end of the rental period.


----------



## francoisp

urquattro83 said:


> Thanks, FRC, for the financial breakdown of how FSD income is accrued.
> 
> Are there economic or financial reasons to want to defer income?


It's illegal to recognize a revenue if the services or goods have not been delivered. There are accepted rules for partially recognizing a revenue depending on the specific circumstances.


----------



## Doug Johnson

francoisp said:


> It's illegal to recognize a revenue if the services or goods have not been delivered. There are accepted rules for partially recognizing a revenue depending on the specific circumstances.


Thanks, francousp, that makes it sound like the only good idea to not offer FSD at a price representative of its presently-perceived value is the honest belief the promised product will be realized. Is that half-way accurate?


----------



## M3OC Rules

francoisp said:


> It's illegal to recognize a revenue if the services or goods have not been delivered. There are accepted rules for partially recognizing a revenue depending on the specific circumstances.


It's a little comical that Tesla gets to decide whether or not it's delivered though. Even Elon called Advanced Summon a party trick.


----------



## FRC

urquattro83 said:


> Are there economic or financial reasons to want to defer income?





M3OC Rules said:


> It's a little comical that Tesla gets to decide whether or not it's delivered though. Even Elon called Advanced Summon a party trick.


It's more about having to defer revenue, rather than wanting to. Generally Accepting Accounting Principles(GAAP) define what is revenue and when it can be recognized. FSD purchases are accounted for in much the same way as the $2500 deposit that original Model 3 reservationists put down. That $2500 was not recognized as income until the car was delivered. My $2000 FSD purchase will not be fully recognized as income until FSD is fully delivered.

And Tesla doesn't decide what % to realize as income(or when), independent accountants(auditors) do.


----------



## francoisp

M3OC Rules said:


> It's a little comical that Tesla gets to decide whether or not it's delivered though. Even Elon called Advanced Summon a party trick.


Keep in mind that Tesla's reported earnings must be approved by its auditors. So it's not as simple as Tesla deciding what is considered a milestone for recognizing revenues.


----------



## M3OC Rules

francoisp said:


> Keep in mind that Tesla's reported earnings must be approved by its auditors. So it's not as simple as Tesla deciding what is considered a milestone for recognizing revenues.


Good point but I wonder if the auditors have tried advanced summon...🤣


----------



## Madmolecule

Mr. Spacely said:


> OK, so what exactly did you want the car to do? No matter how good Teslas become in the future, you will continue get into accidents with cars driven by humans when they hit you from behind...


I would like it to at least alert me. Why is there a camera from behind if it is only for while I am backing for me to use it. Of course it would be great if it was a true AI system and did accident avoidance and at least put the car in neutral to provide as little resistance as possible to the impending collision or get out of the way. But at least an alert would be nice. Or notification that it has detected a rear impact. He could also be ready to steer me so if I was to be rear ended it would not push me into the intersection but try to avoid additional impacts if at all possible. There are many things you could do, but doing nothing is only an excuse for Tesla. And the fact that I did not see the deer at all makes me very leery of vision only. So far I don't have the new software but they have stopped using my Radar. It could also pop up a note that the incident has been recorded to the USB drive. Also it should ask me if they would like to call authorities. As well as doing initial triage with the internal camera. I can list a few more things, but it should do something for the driver, not only for marketing

And Elon electrify Cuba already


----------



## M3OC Rules

FRC said:


> And Tesla doesn't decide what % to realize as income(or when), independent accountants(auditors) do.


Are you sure about that? I'm not an accountant but aren't auditors generally deciding if you did things right versus telling you what to do? Seems like Tesla would decide and then make a case for it if the auditors questioned it.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Here's another question on the accounting. We all agree that Tesla has to deliver FSD to count all of the revenue. But what does that mean exactly? If regulators don't approve it, can Tesla still say they delivered it and count all of the revenue? For example Tesla could show 2x better than human in accidents with FSD turned on and claim victory but regulators may say that's not good enough. Tesla has said all along it's up to the regulators and there is truly no way for them to guarantee it will ever be approved no matter how good it is.


----------



## Klaus-rf

M3OC Rules said:


> For example Tesla could show 2x better than human in accidents with FSD turned on and claim victory but regulators may say that's not good enough.


It's "Human only" vs "Human with FSD". There is no "FSD-only" - without a human being actively involved.


----------



## FRC

M3OC Rules said:


> Are you sure about that? I'm not an accountant but aren't auditors generally deciding if you did things right versus telling you what to do? Seems like Tesla would decide and then make a case for it if the auditors questioned it.


Generally, the company(Tesla) prepares the financial statements which are then audited by an independent firm before publication. It is the job of the independent auditor to ensure that the published financial information accurately reflects the financial health of the company.

Yes, Tesla can claim whatever percentage of FSD revenue they choose. But it's the auditors job to confirm that the percentage is an accurate reflection of real world facts. No accounting firm is going to put their signature to financial statements that they believe are misleading or untrue.


----------



## FRC

M3OC Rules said:


> Here's another question on the accounting. We all agree that Tesla has to deliver FSD to count all of the revenue. But what does that mean exactly? If regulators don't approve it, can Tesla still say they delivered it and count all of the revenue? For example Tesla could show 2x better than human in accidents with FSD turned on and claim victory but regulators may say that's not good enough. Tesla has said all along it's up to the regulators and there is truly no way for them to guarantee it will ever be approved no matter how good it is.


This is a completely different question, IMHO. Now we're talking about what Tesla has to deliver in order to claim 100% of FSD revenue as income. To some extent, this becomes an opinion. Is there anywhere that Tesla specifically detailed everything that FSD would provide? Stated another way; What was the offer that Tesla made and we accepted by plunking down our FSD $$$? I know what I was expecting, but I'm not sure that Tesla ever promised all that I was expecting.

To me this is the crux of where FSD promises, expectations, and delivery could easily end up as a massive class-action suit.


----------



## Doug Johnson

FRC said:


> To me this is the crux of where FSD promises, expectations, and delivery could easily end up as a massive class-action suit.


This is where Elon's unguarded utterances about the car driving itself could get expensive for the company.


----------



## francoisp

I have been wondering why a lawsuit hasn't already happened. Maybe the t&c we agree to when forking $10k for FSD are bulletproof.


----------



## FRC

francoisp said:


> I have been wondering why a lawsuit hasn't already happened. Maybe the t&c we agree to when forking $10k for FSD are bulletproof.


I don't think $10K would ever be the measure of damage for anyone. While $10K is currently the price tag for the FSD upgrade, much of what that $$ represents has been delivered.

In my case, I paid $5K for EAP at delivery, and received 100% of that package. I then paid $2K to upgrade to FSD and got NOA, stoplights, and other minor elements; but no city streets. So, if a judge ordered a refund at some point, how much might I get? Somewhere well south of $2K, I expect.


----------



## iChris93

FRC said:


> got NOA


I believe this is an EAP feature.


----------



## TeslaTony310

M3OC Rules said:


> Here's another question on the accounting. We all agree that Tesla has to deliver FSD to count all of the revenue. But what does that mean exactly? If regulators don't approve it, can Tesla still say they delivered it and count all of the revenue? For example Tesla could show 2x better than human in accidents with FSD turned on and claim victory but regulators may say that's not good enough. Tesla has said all along it's up to the regulators and there is truly no way for them to guarantee it will ever be approved no matter how good it is.


Yes Tesla can, maybe not all, but they can because delivering the actual features is not dependent on regulatory approval. If the car can drive itself from Point A to Point B, completely, it will be considered "Full Self Driving" according to the standards they set, and set a disclaimer for.


----------



## francoisp

TeslaTony310 said:


> Yes Tesla can, maybe not all, but they can because delivering the actual features is not dependent on regulatory approval. If the car can drive itself from Point A to Point B, completely, it will be considered "Full Self Driving" according to the standards they set, and set a disclaimer for.


The FSD package detailed in the subscription offering doesn't mention "the car driving itself from A to B" as a feature. Instead it mentions the more generic "Autosteer on City Streets" which, as I understand, doesn't assume that a destination has to be provided for Autosteer to be engaged.

So, how reliable should this feature be for it to be considered fully delivered? Maybe when out of beta, possibly with some additional milestones to get there.


----------



## M3OC Rules

francoisp said:


> The FSD package detailed in the subscription offering doesn't mention "the car driving itself from A to B" as a feature. Instead it mentions the more generic "Autosteer on City Streets" which, as I understand, doesn't assume that a destination has to be provided for Autosteer to be engaged.
> 
> So, how reliable should this feature be for it to be considered fully delivered? Maybe when out of beta, possibly with some additional milestones to get there.


It makes sense that the subscription doesn't mention it because its so far out. Even saying Autosteer on City Streets is coming soon is strange because if it doesn't come in the month you're paying for what difference does it make. In that context coming soon suggests during the month you're paying for it. With a subscription the value proposition is much clearer because you're not speculating on something happening in the future. You know what you are getting, when, and how much you're paying for it which is the crux of this thread. Because of that even Elon said in the earnings call the subscription arguably isn't worth it right now.

In terms of reliability, they are already taking credit for many Beta features that don't work that great. Who knows how they determine the percentage though. For example, do they get more credit for improving Summon? Does the Beta name mean anything in that context?

My guess is from Tesla's perspective they are primarily focused on getting FSD to work and everything else is secondary. There is some overlap that benefits current assist features but they are going for the big prize. From the accountants perspective they could probably improve things marginally if they focused on making the best assist features but getting FSD working and approved is a step function for them too.


----------



## Long Ranger

@francoisp I'm curious about that screenshot showing $99/mo. Is that from your vehicle and do you have EAP? Your signature says Model Y, so I would have expected you to have AP only and for the price to be $199.


----------



## francoisp

Long Ranger said:


> @francoisp I'm curious about that screenshot showing $99/mo. Is that from your vehicle and do you have EAP? Your signature says Model Y, so I would have expected you to have AP only and for the price to be $199.


Yes, I have EAP.


----------



## vinnie97

FRC said:


> I don't think $10K would ever be the measure of damage for anyone. While $10K is currently the price tag for the FSD upgrade, much of what that $$ represents has been delivered.
> 
> In my case, I paid $5K for EAP at delivery, and received 100% of that package. I then paid $2K to upgrade to FSD and got NOA, stoplights, and other minor elements; but no city streets. So, if a judge ordered a refund at some point, how much might I get? Somewhere well south of $2K, I expect.


$5K early adoption here, so much for the advice to purchase at the beginning. I'd be lucky to get $2k back.


----------



## Doug Johnson

francoisp said:


> The FSD package detailed in the subscription offering doesn't mention "the car driving itself from A to B" as a feature. Instead it mentions the more generic "Autosteer on City Streets" which, as I understand, doesn't assume that a destination has to be provided for Autosteer to be engaged.
> 
> So, how reliable should this feature be for it to be considered fully delivered? Maybe when out of beta, possibly with some additional milestones to get there.
> 
> View attachment 39409


Maybe it'd also be good to mention this screenshot is from a car with EAP, if that's the case.


----------



## iChris93

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1429903213726093315But button in 2 weeks.


----------



## FRC

iChris93 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1429903213726093315But button in 2 weeks.


WOW! What did he say 8 months ago about the triple fire emoji holiday release? Something like it's gonna blow us away? 8 months later it has become "not great". Obviously, he was off-base last December, but I'm quite surprised at how out of touch with the apparent difficulties of FSD he really was(is).


----------



## TrevP

FRC said:


> WOW! What did he say 8 months ago about the triple fire emoji holiday release? Something like it's gonna blow us away? 8 months later it has become "not great". Obviously, he was off-base last December, but I'm quite surprised at how out of touch with the apparent difficulties of FSD he really was(is).


Let's not confuse the holiday release with FSD, very different things. But yes, we still haven't seen the balance of what they insinuated back then


----------



## francoisp

iChris93 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1429903213726093315But button in 2 weeks.


The whole thing is such a hard nut to crack.


----------



## iChris93

francoisp said:


> The whole thing is such a hard nut to crack.


Who could've known?


----------



## Madmolecule

As a controls engineer and a user of the product it was clear Elon was losing the battle of the 9s. Even if they get confidence in the code, they have not built in the liability of taking the responsibility of driving away from the driver in the purchase price of the vehicle or FSD. I’ve been stating they need to stop calling it FSD move to lifepilot driver enhancement. They also still need to add their Moto Conte design group. To improve the interior design, body styling, nosecone redesign and infotainment to put the sexy in future releases. I don’t think Tesla has really thought through having computers taking full control of a 5000 pound, 100 mph, killing machine, I don’t see their legal counsel saying no problem. In fact I always felt this would be the excuse that Tesla would use why they haven’t released it because the regulators will not allow it, but they could never even get the beta version to that level to try to convince regulators, so that plan went out the window.

I think the Tesla bot might be released before the Robo taxi. And they’ve never been built one, it only exist on PowerPoint.

It is clear Elon is the pitch man, but not making decisions behind the scene, Those are being made by the board, to protect teslas brand and their stock value.


----------



## DocScott

Madmolecule said:


> I think the Tesla bot might be released before the Robo taxi. And they've never been built one, it only exist on PowerPoint.


Completely agree on that.

I think L4 robotaxis from other companies may be pretty common pretty soon. But they'll be limited in speed and route and perhaps weather conditions. But that's not what Elon wants--he wants L5, able to take riders anywhere a human driver could. I don't think that's going to happen for a long, long time.


----------



## shareef777

At this point I fully believe we got scammed on the FSD purchase. Our only saving grace is that we let everyone know about the scam and to ensure no one else puts money into it until it's released.

With that said, my last two referrals both bought FSD 🤦‍♂️


----------



## Madmolecule

My friend that recently purchased a model 3 is on the subscription, not because it’s a great value, but she was just excited to try all the gimmicks, I don’t know how long it will last. I also believe in the next year they will have all sorts of incentives to buy it out right, or six month or one year commitments at discounts. I think they’ve given up concerned about the people that paid $10,000 for it it. Also I think more people will make a separate payment for the subscription instead of roll it into the loan, because you can always cancel it, And ownership has yet to proven that much benefit in resale


----------



## walnotr

I am disappointed every time I read an comment in this thread. Did anyone here watch autonomy day? AI day? The massive amount of engineering being poured into solving this problem is mind boggling. It appears to me Tesla is constantly inventing new ways to crack this nut. Not stubbornly sticking with old ways of doing the same thing over and over again. Can you say LIDAR, geofenced, high resolution mapped routes, and speed limited solutions? 
Sure, aspirational goals have been put out there, but when a new, better solution is discovered, they back the train up and follow the better path.

Enough of my rant. 🔥🔥 away!


----------



## Mr. Spacely

walnotr said:


> I am disappointed every time I read an comment in this thread. Did anyone here watch autonomy day? AI day? The massive amount of engineering being poured into solving this problem is mind boggling. It appears to me Tesla is constantly inventing new ways to crack this nut. Not stubbornly sticking with old ways of doing the same thing over and over again. Can you say LIDAR, geofenced, high resolution mapped routes, and speed limited solutions?
> Sure, aspirational goals have been put out there, but when a new, better solution is discovered, they back the train up and follow the better path.
> 
> Enough of my rant. 🔥🔥 away!


My guess is that you didn't pay for FSD? By the way I bought into it so hard that my license plate is "SLF DRIV."


----------



## shareef777

walnotr said:


> I am disappointed every time I read an comment in this thread. Did anyone here watch autonomy day? AI day? The massive amount of engineering being poured into solving this problem is mind boggling. It appears to me Tesla is constantly inventing new ways to crack this nut. Not stubbornly sticking with old ways of doing the same thing over and over again. Can you say LIDAR, geofenced, high resolution mapped routes, and speed limited solutions?
> Sure, aspirational goals have been put out there, but when a new, better solution is discovered, they back the train up and follow the better path.
> 
> Enough of my rant. 🔥🔥 away!


Did you watch the previous autonomy day presentations? Same old same old. Chevy poured A LOT of engineering into designing the Corvette C8. Doesn't mean that the problems of the first year C8s go unquestioned.


----------



## shareef777

shareef777 said:


> At this point I fully believe we got scammed on the FSD purchase. Our only saving grace is that we let everyone know about the scam and to ensure no one else puts money into it until it's released.
> 
> With that said, my last two referrals both bought FSD 🤦‍♂️


Wow, what're the odds. Just got a call this morning my brother cancelled FSD on his MYP last night and got his VIN this morning.


----------



## iChris93

walnotr said:


> Tesla is constantly inventing new ways to crack this nut.


Yup. And never cracking it.


----------



## shareef777

iChris93 said:


> Yup. And never cracking it.


lol, I was thinking just that. It's ironic that the Thomas Edison quote comes to mind "I've not failed, just found 10k ways that don't work".

Suppose Tesla is now on 10,001.


----------



## iChris93

shareef777 said:


> lol, I was thinking just that. It's ironic that the Thomas Edison quote comes to mind "I've not failed, just found 10k ways that don't work".
> 
> Suppose Tesla is now on 10,001.


That's fine. It's a hard problem. But we all knew it was a hard problem. Elon still insisted on taking money for years and promising by end of year or 3 to 6 months or 2 weeks and nada.


----------



## DocScott

walnotr said:


> I am disappointed every time I read an comment in this thread. Did anyone here watch autonomy day? AI day? The massive amount of engineering being poured into solving this problem is mind boggling. It appears to me Tesla is constantly inventing new ways to crack this nut. Not stubbornly sticking with old ways of doing the same thing over and over again. Can you say LIDAR, geofenced, high resolution mapped routes, and speed limited solutions?
> Sure, aspirational goals have been put out there, but when a new, better solution is discovered, they back the train up and follow the better path.
> 
> Enough of my rant. 🔥🔥 away!


Good analogy. The problem is that they sold tickets on that train that said the passengers would get to Chattanooga by Thursday. After a month of backing up the train over and over again, I'd expect those passengers to be pretty grumpy...


----------



## M3OC Rules

walnotr said:


> I am disappointed every time I read an comment in this thread. Did anyone here watch autonomy day? AI day? The massive amount of engineering being poured into solving this problem is mind boggling. It appears to me Tesla is constantly inventing new ways to crack this nut. Not stubbornly sticking with old ways of doing the same thing over and over again. Can you say LIDAR, geofenced, high resolution mapped routes, and speed limited solutions?
> Sure, aspirational goals have been put out there, but when a new, better solution is discovered, they back the train up and follow the better path.
> 
> Enough of my rant. 🔥🔥 away!


That's almost, but not really great, if you live in Chandler, AZ. No one has solved this.


----------



## walnotr

Mr. Spacely said:


> My guess is that you didn't pay for FSD? By the way I bought into it so hard that my license plate is "SLF DRIV."


Well, you guessed wrong. I purchased FSD with the car back in 08/2018 and have watched the progress ever since. I'll admit the improvements have not always been spectacular, but there have been many none the less. I went into this knowing full well it would take time for the system to mature.
I don't buy vanity plates.


----------



## shareef777

walnotr said:


> Well, you guessed wrong. I purchased FSD with the car back in 08/2018 and have watched the progress ever since. I'll admit the improvements have not always been spectacular, but there have been many none the less. I went into this knowing full well it would take time for the system to mature.
> I don't buy vanity plates.


Some people are perfectly fine with donating money to a multi-billion dollar business. Some expect something in return. I'm the latter.


----------



## NR4P

Elon's latest tweet on not being great is really a concern. He has tens of thousands of people (estimate, but is it 100K or more?) who spent a lot of money on FSD with certain expectations. Due to claims by Elon and Tesla. Now we venture back into the unknown, not even an estimate going forward. The arbitration clause in buyer agreements protects Tesla but I suspect lawyers are buzzing trying to find the magic class action loophole. And as the AP investigation follows, when the lawyers get involved, they will broaden the net to FSD claims.

And some of the 2K testers are tweeting "nah nah, look what I got and how cool it is". That now infuriates me. Really.

I have doubts I will ever see a valuable Smart Summon or some type of Self Driving where I can let go of the wheel for many, many minutes before I stop driving this vehicle, with paid for FSD.


----------



## slacker775

You need to follow the ‘not really great’ thread in its entirety since it’s been blown up and taken way out context. It was in response to Munro telling Ford they should try Tesla’s FSD to get insight on how to make theirs better. Elon responded that the 9.2 beta was ‘not really great’ because it’s a tweener release where they are merging Highway and street vision code. As that merge goes through a few rounds, it will be much better. Maybe someday the rest of us will get to actually try it instead of watching YT vids.


----------



## Madmolecule

walnotr said:


> I am disappointed every time I read an comment in this thread. Did anyone here watch autonomy day? AI day? The massive amount of engineering being poured into solving this problem is mind boggling. It appears to me Tesla is constantly inventing new ways to crack this nut. Not stubbornly sticking with old ways of doing the same thing over and over again. Can you say LIDAR, geofenced, high resolution mapped routes, and speed limited solutions?
> Sure, aspirational goals have been put out there, but when a new, better solution is discovered, they back the train up and follow the better path.
> 
> Enough of my rant. 🔥🔥 away!


I did see Ai day. What I did not see was AI creating a model to allow for FSD or any other advance functions happening in the near future. What I also saw what is a bunch of engineers holding up hardware chips. This is by far the worst way to showcase AI, big data, and a world-class model That no one else can reproduce. They have still not made a coherent argument for vision only, because less information is counterintuitive with big data. Especially if you have the god chip that can handle all sorts of data at lightning speed.

The nut is still unscathed, and will make it through the winter that way.

aspirational goals have been sold as product.

Do you think with that chip, they could figure out waypoints

also, the blatant recruitment pitch to try to find new talent to solve this problem is pretty scary in a presentation that supposed to summarize accomplishments. While he had the microphone he might as well say anyone can help us out and customer service would be greatly appreciated.

I wish the product was good enough for me to purchase a vanity plate. Instead I had to pay to have some warning signs made. I live in the south and was afraid of being shot, due to beta software that has not been tested other than computer simulators









Still waiting on the first apology video from one shIll's that had the beta software and said it was the greatest thing in the world, and obviously sucked just like Elon says.


----------



## walnotr

shareef777 said:


> Some people are perfectly fine with donating money to a multi-billion dollar business. Some expect something in return. I'm the latter.


Like you, I don't donate money to multi-billion dollar businesses. I invested in future proofing my car. So far, it continues to improve and new features, including noticeable advances toward FSD, have been added over the years. I expect it to continue as long as short sided individuals don't mess it up with pointless class action lawsuits or demands for more government oversight.
I just spent time rewatching the autonomous day presentation. It made sense at the time but after AI day, it is obvious they knew the challenges ahead of them. I have not seen any indication the plan was to dupe people into giving money to Tesla. The plan was, and still is, to develop the full self driving solution. If it isn't happening on your timeline it is not an indication of fraud on their part. I was not convinced they would meet the ambitious goal of robo taxis in 2020. What I did recognize was a clear goal going forward. That final goal continues to be in the future but the engineering and development of the tools to make it happen are finally being realized.
I urge the collective you to take a step back, look at the immensity of the problem, and try to understand what some of the greatest engineering minds are doing to finally make you happy.


----------



## Madmolecule

I don't have a three year old computer, that the hardware has been replaced once and the software has been rewritten from the ground up multiple times now, but I actually have a future proof, never obsolete, investment That the demand will be so large due to the scarcity of batteries I will be able to sell mine for more than I paid for it. Somewhere around $200,000 I think elon said


----------



## iChris93

walnotr said:


> If it isn't happening on your timeline


They set the timeline, not me.


----------



## walnotr

I can not change minds, and am not willing to keep playing this game. Enjoy your negative attitude.


----------



## iChris93

walnotr said:


> I can not change minds, and am not willing to keep playing this game. Enjoy your negative attitude.


I'm sorry I'm coming off as having a negative attitude or playing games.

When I purchased my 3, I was very optimistic. Now, I'm more realistic.

When I speak to people who see the FSD beta videos and want to buy FSD because they're expecting that, what am I supposed to do? I want to tell them it's worth it and they will see features soon. The reality is that we were told that we would get the features 3 years ago and there still isn't a feature worth using outside of enhanced autopilot and I don't know when there will be. If EAP were still an option, I wouldn't hesitate to recommend it.


----------



## M3OC Rules

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430657502966910985
4 weeks is the new 2 weeks


----------



## beachmiles

This thread title has held the test of time unfortunately too well. FSD in the streets later this year for a couple years has become 2 weeks and now ticking back up to 4 weeks. I really hope they don't cut and run on the current codebase and do a full rewrite and/or fire the main software architechs and burn another year building up from scratch again. I really hope getting rid of the radar mainly wasn't about the chip shortage. We have been running beta navigate on autopilot for a couple years now, it's past time to allow people to try beta versions of FSD on streets. Everyone is already responsible for accidents on autopilot last I checked.


----------



## garsh

beachmiles said:


> I really hope getting rid of the radar mainly wasn't about the chip shortage.


I'm guessing that they had been considering making that change for a while now, given the difficulties of merging radar and vision signals, and how it results in some unwanted braking.

I just think that the chip shortages caused them to bite the bullet and make the change at this point in time so that they wouldn't have to cut back on Model 3/Y production for lack of radar.


----------



## iChris93

M3OC Rules said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430657502966910985
> 4 weeks is the new 2 weeks


Apparently in Elon time, 2 weeks is longer than 4 weeks.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430818638588690432


----------



## shareef777

walnotr said:


> I can not change minds, and am not willing to keep playing this game. Enjoy your negative attitude.


He had a 6 word, FACT and not emotion based response which sums up EVERYONES frustration with FSD. And your counter was, well poo to that!


----------



## michigantesla

I have a full FSD M3 and also wish that actual FSD would get here faster. But it looks like Tesla severely underestimated the time it will take. The problem appears to be very very hard. It looks like they are trying to do it in a serious way. From the time I got my car (April '19) until now there actually has been a lot of improvement with the system on the highway. I was just thinking it is to the point now that I would trust it not to crash on the freeway. Especially if you leave auto lane change off. Maybe Tesla should focus on getting unattended freeway driving approved. If I could sleep while crossing Ohio on the turnpike that would be worth the price of FSD to me!


----------



## M3OC Rules

michigantesla said:


> I have a full FSD M3 and also wish that actual FSD would get here faster. But it looks like Tesla severely underestimated the time it will take. The problem appears to be very very hard. It looks like they are trying to do it in a serious way. From the time I got my car (April '19) until now there actually has been a lot of improvement with the system on the highway. I was just thinking it is to the point now that I would trust it not to crash on the freeway. Especially if you leave auto lane change off. Maybe Tesla should focus on getting unattended freeway driving approved. If I could sleep while crossing Ohio on the turnpike that would be worth the price of FSD to me!


I like the optimism but it absolutely will crash on the freeway and you need to monitor it. The stuff in our cars is still pretty rudimentary compared to what's needed to avoid collisions. It will handle some things but not others. Most of the time nothing weird happens and you just need to stay in the lines. It does that pretty well but even that is not 100%. That is leading to a false sense of security.

The good news is the release Elon is referring to that might come in 4 weeks should handle a lot more situations or at least the capability to be trained to do so.


----------



## francoisp

garsh said:


> I'm guessing that they had been considering making that change for a while now, given the difficulties of merging radar and vision signals, and how it results in some unwanted braking.
> 
> I just think that the chip shortages caused them to bite the bullet and make the change at this point in time so that they wouldn't have to cut back on Model 3/Y production for lack of radar.


My thoughts. Such a rewrite is way too complex to be done because of an unexpected chip shortage.


----------



## francoisp

michigantesla said:


> I have a full FSD M3 and also wish that actual FSD would get here faster. But it looks like Tesla severely underestimated the time it will take. The problem appears to be very very hard. It looks like they are trying to do it in a serious way. From the time I got my car (April '19) until now there actually has been a lot of improvement with the system on the highway. I was just thinking it is to the point now that I would trust it not to crash on the freeway. Especially if you leave auto lane change off. Maybe Tesla should focus on getting unattended freeway driving approved. If I could sleep while crossing Ohio on the turnpike that would be worth the price of FSD to me!


What? Ohio is not that boring lol. Interstate 90 in New York on the other hand ...


----------



## SalisburySam

M3OC Rules said:


> The good news is the release Elon is referring to that might come in 4 weeks should handle a lot more situations or at least the capability to be trained to do so.


Sorry, forgive my doubts that any of the three will happen anytime soon. Not the 4 weeks, not the better situational response, not the enhanced ability to be trained. Could any of that happen? Sure. Have we any reason to believe any of it? I don't.


----------



## garsh

francoisp said:


> My thoughts. Such a rewrite is way too complex to be done because of an unexpected chip shortage.


As we witnessed. That's why new "radarless vehicle" owners had to put up with diminished functionality for a few weeks.


----------



## M3OC Rules

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1432739007339892738
So this is interesting. Before Feb 2019 FSD got you nothing and after that point they bundled EAP and FSD into just FSD. That sent the take rate up to > 40%. They have raised the prices and not delivered much in the way of new features and its less than half the take rate. This isn't too surprising and my thinking has always been that they had to either deliver, lower the price, or change the pricing structure. It looks like they are holding out on delivering but you also have to wonder how far they are from being worth $10k and how long they will hold out. This is why I think prebuying is risky. At some point they will want to get more money out of all those people with cars and no FSD. I think FSD Beta may still be a party trick after it comes out despite how impressive it is. If you have to monitor it very closely, it's slow, and have lots of disengagements you just won't use it.

This data also shows that Tesla made a lot more money by bundling FSD and hyping it up. But good to see purchasing tracking value to some degree. Something has to change.


----------



## shareef777

M3OC Rules said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1432739007339892738
> So this is interesting. Before Feb 2019 FSD got you nothing and after that point they bundled EAP and FSD into just FSD. That sent the take rate up to > 40%. They have raised the prices and not delivered much in the way of new features and its less than half the take rate. This isn't too surprising and my thinking has always been that they had to either deliver, lower the price, or change the pricing structure. It looks like they are holding out on delivering but you also have to wonder how far they are from being worth $10k and how long they will hold out. This is why I think prebuying is risky. At some point they will want to get more money out of all those people with cars and no FSD. I think FSD Beta may still be a party trick after it comes out despite how impressive it is. If you have to monitor it very closely, it's slow, and have lots of disengagements you just won't use it.
> 
> This data also shows that Tesla made a lot more money by bundling FSD and hyping it up. But good to see purchasing tracking value to some degree. Something has to change.


We'll, in early 2019 you had to pay for AP (wasn't bundled), and the relatively small added Cost to go from AP to FSD had people jump in (looking at myself). I can see how the numbers dropped once AP was included.


----------



## slacker775

shareef777 said:


> We'll, in early 2019 you had to pay for AP (wasn't bundled), and the relatively small added Cost to go from AP to FSD had people jump in (looking at myself). I can see how the numbers dropped once AP was included.


This is correct and likely a pretty significant reason for a large number of FSD sales in the 'earlier' days. When I got my M3 (July 2018), EAP was 5k and FSD was an additional 3k. If the car had come with AP at that time, take rates on EAP and especially FSD likely would have been pretty low.


----------



## walnotr

I believe the options in 2018 were basic autopilot that came with the car for free, or EAP which gave you TACC, lane keeping, auto lane changes, auto park, and summon. Purchasing FSD was guaranteed an upgrade to the FSD computer when it became available along with all the updates going forward as FSD was developed. Around the time all new cars came equipped with the new computer, smart summon and NoAP were introduced, you either got the basic AP or paid for FSD to get the increased functionality. I spent the $8K at the time of purchase and have never regretted it. Waiting for the “button” has not been easy. Waiting for a robust level 2 system that will be level 3 once approved will be worth the wait.


----------



## iChris93

walnotr said:


> I believe the options in 2018 were basic autopilot that came with the car for free, or EAP which gave you TACC, lane keeping, auto lane changes, auto park, and summon.


There was not a basic AP in 2018 when I got my car. It was nothing, EAP, or EAP+FSD.


----------



## Long Ranger

shareef777 said:


> We'll, in early 2019 you had to pay for AP (wasn't bundled), and the relatively small added Cost to go from AP to FSD had people jump in (looking at myself). I can see how the numbers dropped once AP was included.


But looking at the data, the numbers didn't really drop when basic AP started being included for free. They stayed high but then dropped as the FSD price was ratcheted up from $6k to $10k.

Basic AP was included starting in April 2019. FSD prices after that:
Apr 2019 to Aug 2019: $6k
Aug 2019 to Jun 2020: $7k
Jul 2020 to Oct 2020: $8k
Oct 2020 to today: $10k


----------



## walnotr

From the August 2018 manual:

These Autopilot safety features are available on all Model 3 vehicles:
• Lane Assist (see Lane Assist on page 77).
• Collision Avoidance Assist (see Collision Avoidance Assist on page 79).
• Speed Assist (see Speed Assist on page 82).
• Auto High Beam (see High Beam Headlights on page 46).


----------



## Long Ranger

walnotr said:


> From the August 2018 manual:
> 
> These Autopilot safety features are available on all Model 3 vehicles:
> • Lane Assist (see Lane Assist on page 77).
> • Collision Avoidance Assist (see Collision Avoidance Assist on page 79).
> • Speed Assist (see Speed Assist on page 82).
> • Auto High Beam (see High Beam Headlights on page 46).


Yes, I recall that Tesla did refer to those as Autopilot safety features. But I think it just confuses things to refer to that as basic Autopilot. When Tesla stopped selling EAP in early 2019, they started selling "Autopilot" for $3k, which consisted of TACC and autosteer. It's pretty well accepted terminology that basic AP refers to that TACC + autosteer package and not stuff like auto high beams.


----------



## walnotr

True, none of those features could really be called autopilot. They are a small subset of functions used by, at the time, EAP. The lack of basic CC was a common complaint back then.


----------



## DocScott

walnotr said:


> Waiting for a robust level 2 system that will be level 3 once approved will be worth the wait.


I see nothing that suggests Tesla is trying to create an L3 system. An L3 system has to have a robust alert system to have to tell you when you need to resume control. There's also been no attempt to specify under what "limited conditions" the car would drive itself.

Instead, Tesla continues to try to work toward jumping straight from L2 to L4.

I would love it if Tesla redirected some of its effort to create L3 systems. There are a number of circumstances where it could do so:

--Good weather conditions on limited-access highways (e.g. interstates). Perhaps start out limiting it to roads with at least three lanes in each direction, with the car required to drive one lane from the right while in this mode. So basically like today's AP, but with it being OK to watch a movie or play a video game while it's doing it.

--Heavy traffic jams. A bit trickier, because of the tendency for other drivers to want to change lanes whenever a space opens up. Somehow the Tesla has to learn to distinguish between leaving too big a space and letting cars in who are just trying to get a car-length ahead, and those who are trying to change lanes because they have to exit or turn.

--Some sort of "trusted route" mode for local driving, where the car could be trained on a specific route by the driver and then repeat that route without constant monitoring, alerting the driver if something's changed (e.g. construction, a double-parked car, etc.).

If Tesla were working on any of those, or other L3-type applications, we'd probably see evidence of it. But they just have no interest in doing those kinds of things.


----------



## SalisburySam

walnotr said:


> The lack of basic CC was a common complaint back then.


…and still is.


----------



## iChris93

SalisburySam said:


> …and still is.


Are we talking about customer care or cruise control?


----------



## SalisburySam

DocScott said:


> I see nothing that suggests Tesla is trying to create an L3 system. An L3 system has to have a robust alert system to have to tell you when you need to resume control. There's also been no attempt to specify under what "limited conditions" the car would drive itself.
> 
> Instead, Tesla continues to try to work toward jumping straight from L2 to L4.
> 
> I would love it if Tesla redirected some of its effort to create L3 systems.


Never thought I'd say this as someone who bought EAP/FSD with the car, but at this point, I'd like Tesla to re-focus its development teams away from futzing around with whatever FSD will or will not be whenever it will or will not be. I want Tesla to fix, refine, or actually deliver the many features that today don't work or have been left by the wayside. Lots of examples, but they include for me:
1- Dumb Summon
2- Smart Summon
3- AutoPark
4- Media art for music
5- Merging entrance and exit lane surprises (e.g., slowing down when vehicles are merging from the right, shifting to put the car in the center of the right-most and exit lanes)
6- Unreadable and short-lasting on-screen messages

…and most importantly, fix the fudging, forking, shut-the-front-door phantom braking that has plagued me and at least a few vocal others since day 1.


----------



## SalisburySam

iChris93 said:


> Are we talking about customer care or cruise control?


Actually, Customer Communications. But no, in my case I mean dumb cruise control. Sadly lacking and more necessary today with the vagaries of TACC than ever.


----------



## Francois Gaucher

Also disappointed. Purchased FSD in March 2019. Now Elon say FSD will be available to Canadian in few months. Nearly 3 years of waiting.


----------



## iChris93

Francois Gaucher said:


> Also disappointed. Purchased FSD in March 2019. Now Elon say FSD will be available to Canadian in few months. Nearly 3 years of waiting.


Just adding the tweet for context 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1433233159915667459


----------



## SalisburySam

Francois Gaucher said:


> Also disappointed. Purchased FSD in March 2019. Now Elon say FSD will be available to Canadian in few months. Nearly 3 years of waiting.


Nothing to worry about, it just isn't going to happen. We've had these "coming soon to a neighborhood near you" messages from Elon for years without results. Why would this be different?


----------



## walnotr

SalisburySam said:


> Nothing to worry about, it just isn't going to happen. We've had these "coming soon to a neighborhood near you" messages from Elon for years without results. Why would this be different?


Dunning-Kruger much?


----------



## SalisburySam

walnotr said:


> Dunning-Kruger much?


LOL, love that. No, not so much D-K but more "past performance is not a guarantee of future success…but it's an indicator." Track records are important, precedent is important, failure (and successes) are important. No one seems to know how to solve Levels 4 and 5 today and even Level 3 is apparently proving very, very difficult…far more so than anyone, especially Elon, anticipated. Yeah, I stand by my comment that anything marginal beyond what we have today will be coming to Canada in a few months, or more likely years. Just my opinion of course, based on my going from an excited and anticipatory glass half full view to a glass decidedly almost empty view of FSD.


----------



## RichEV

Hopefully sometime this year this thread will be superceded by something like 

*"Disappointed about Imperfect City Streets FSD behavior"*


----------



## sunfarm

iChris93 said:


> Just adding the tweet for context
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1433233159915667459


I did mistake too and bought FSD in July this year. My software still from factory and not updated for 2 month, but I am not worry anymore because I will not own this car more than a one year.


----------



## shareef777

RichEV said:


> Hopefully sometime this year this thread will be superceded by something like
> 
> *"Disappointed about Imperfect City Streets FSD behavior"*


Seen exact comments like yours in 2019, 2020, and 2021. And….. 2022 right around the corner.


----------



## francoisp

The videos of the newly released v10 of FSD that have started to emerge this past weekend are very promising. The car seems to have acquired an improved ability to analyse a traffic situation before committing to an action.


----------



## Ksb466

I was thinking the videos were rather mixed. Some do look good but others a step backward. Sounded like some just needed to calibrate the cameras. You always have to filter through some of the rose colored glasses commentary too. Then Elon changed 2 weeks to 3 weeks, which I know to take as a new minimum. I look forward to getting it and prefer they get on with releasing it widely with the next release. No single release will be mind-blowingly better than the prior one. That’s ok. Can only do so much in a couple weeks. We know what we’re getting into. Put it out there, were adults. And it’ll be a long , iterative process of gradual improvement, much like EAPs quirks and its’ improvements over time.


----------



## StevieC

I’m wondering when it will really be available to us? 2-3 weeks for the button, maybe? Then there’s talk about rolling it out slowly “for safety”. How is that going to be done? How will we qualify for the button to work? How will they choose? Will it be first come, first served until a certain number is reached, in weekly, or “two weeks” waves? Will only the people staying up all night be the ones that get in?


----------



## slotti

If we are lucky, we will get it as a x-mas gift. Nite, I do not define the year ;-). 
Funny how people are saying I have been waiting almost 3 years....lol. My car is April 2018. I am obviously way over the 3 year mark. Almost glad there was no lease options available back then, since by know I would have returned the car that I paid a feature for that would have never happened. If I keep the car for 10 years, I might just see some of the features I paid for, lol.


----------



## shareef777

Speaking of leases, they started in mid 2019 and must be returned (no buyout option). Tesla’s reason at the time was that autonomy will be out and they’d be part of their robotaxi fleet. So I’m a few months Tesla will start getting back 3year old vehicles.

Guess they fell for EST too 😂


----------



## M3OC Rules

shareef777 said:


> Speaking of leases, they started in mid 2019 and must be returned (no buyout option). Tesla's reason at the time was that autonomy will be out and they'd be part of their robotaxi fleet. So I'm a few months Tesla will start getting back 3year old vehicles.
> 
> Guess they fell for EST too 😂


Except that the cars probably held their value more than the lease was based on. They still win.

This is probably one of those things where Elon probably believed the robotaxis would happen by now but there was very little downside to them saying they wouldn't allow lease buyouts. And it makes it sound like they are confident on the robotaxis.

I haven't leased before so I haven't done a ton of research on leases but it seems like the dynamics must be a little different with Tesla since they don't have dealerships and are EVs.


----------



## FRC

M3OC Rules said:


> Except that the cars probably held their value more than the lease was based on. They still win.
> 
> This is probably one of those things where Elon probably believed the robotaxis would happen by now but there was very little downside to them saying they wouldn't allow lease buyouts. And it makes it sound like they are confident on the robotaxis.
> 
> I haven't leased before so I haven't done a ton of research on leases but it seems like the dynamics must be a little different with Tesla since they don't have dealerships and are EVs.


And nothing is stopping them from now, changing their minds, and allowing lease buy-outs.


----------



## shareef777

FRC said:


> And nothing is stopping them from now, changing their minds, and allowing lease buy-outs.


That's my thought as well. It does Tesla no good to take back a 3 year old used car, refurb it and re-sell it. Just let them keep it at whatever market value it has (assuming they want to).


----------



## M3OC Rules

shareef777 said:


> That's my thought as well. It does Tesla no good to take back a 3 year old used car, refurb it and re-sell it. Just let them keep it at whatever market value it has (assuming they want to).


This makes sense but would someone pay $48,800 for a 2018 Long Range Model 3 with FSD with 45,000 miles after they paid 3 years of lease payments?


----------



## FRC

M3OC Rules said:


> This makes sense but would someone pay $48,800 for a 2018 Long Range Model 3 with FSD with 45,000 miles after they paid 3 years of lease payments?


Past lease payments should have no bearing on the decision. FMV should be the only consideration.


----------



## shareef777

M3OC Rules said:


> This makes sense but would someone pay $48,800 for a 2018 Long Range Model 3 with FSD with 45,000 miles after they paid 3 years of lease payments?


I'd imagine a bulk of people that opted for a lease in the first place did so that they can get a new vehicle every 3 years. So regardless of brand, most leasers would return their vehicle anyway.

Tesla's original plan was to take these vehicles and use them for a robotaxi fleet. That's not happening anytime soon and I doubt that they're going to toss lease returns to the side to wait for the robotaxi dream to come to fruition. The only other logical step is to resell the vehicles (like what most traditional dealers do) and offering the original buyers the option to just keep the vehicle would probably be a cheaper option then taking them back and having to refurb them.


----------



## Bigriver

StevieC said:


> I'm wondering when it will really be available to us? 2-3 weeks for the button, maybe? Then there's talk about rolling it out slowly "for safety". How is that going to be done? How will we qualify for the button to work? How will they choose?


Here is the answer:


----------



## francoisp

Bigriver said:


> Here is the answer:
> 
> View attachment 39871


So people paid $10k for FSD and "dad" needs to assess that they've been good boys and girls before giving them permission to use it. LOL


----------



## Bigriver

francoisp said:


> So people paid $10k for FSD and "dad" needs to assess that they've been good boys and girls before giving them permission to use it. LOL


It is more than a little ironic that a person's driving behavior influences when they get the capability for the car to drive itself. Logically, it would make more sense to give it to the bad drivers first. 🤨 I get that the driver is still in charge and will need to be ready to intervene, but a "good driver" (presumably one who limits acceleration, speed, and sudden stops?) is able to monitor better?


----------



## SalisburySam

francoisp said:


> So people paid $10k for FSD and "dad" needs to assess that they've been good boys and girls before giving them permission to use it. LOL


Gee, interesting that Tesla had no interest in checking my insurance or driving record when they accepted my FSD payment.


----------



## M3OC Rules

This is beta in the true sense. It's not done and will likely make unsafe moves. I think it's cool they let people use stuff before its done but there is definite risk in doing so. Rest assured you can resume complaining it's not done when the button comes out and think carefully before hitting that button. There is a reason it's going to be a button and not just rolled out to everyone.


----------



## shareef777

M3OC Rules said:


> This is beta in the true sense. It's not done and will likely make unsafe moves. I think it's cool they let people use stuff before its done but there is definite risk in doing so. Rest assured you can resume complaining it's not done when the button comes out and think carefully before hitting that button. There is a reason it's going to be a button and not just rolled out to everyone.


If they think it's cool to take peoples money before it's done, they better feel the same way about letting people try it.


----------



## Klaus-rf

M3OC Rules said:


> This is beta in the true sense. It's not done and will likely make unsafe moves. I think it's cool they let people use stuff before its done but there is definite risk in doing so.


You just defined ALPHA software. By definition, by the time it reaches Beta, ALL the dangerous risky stuff has been addressed and/or removed.


----------



## Klaus-rf

Bigriver said:


> Here is the answer:
> 
> View attachment 39871


Suppose I enable the button and then don't drive the car for 14 days, then drive a short distance on day 15 and park it again for another 5 days. Do I pass the "7 day" period??


----------



## Glade_EV

"Driver behavior" could be interpreted as how well the driver pays attention. That's the criteria that makes sense.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Klaus-rf said:


> You just defined ALPHA software. By definition, by the time it reaches Beta, ALL the dangerous risky stuff has been addressed and/or removed.


Here is Wikipedia "
A beta phase generally begins when the software is feature complete but likely to contain a number of known or unknown bugs.[7] Software in the beta phase will generally have many more bugs in it than completed software and speed or performance issues, and *may still cause crashes or data loss*. The focus of beta testing is reducing impacts to users, often incorporating usability testing. The process of delivering a beta version to the users is called beta release and is typically the first time that the software is available outside of the organization that developed it. Software beta releases can be either public or private, depending on whether they are openly available or only available to a limited audience. Beta version software is often useful for demonstrations and previews within an organization and to prospective customers. Some developers refer to this stage as a preview, preview release, prototype, technical preview or technology preview (TP),[8] or early access. Since the introduction of Windows 8, Microsoft has called pre-release software a preview rather than beta. All pre-release builds released through the Windows Insider Program launched in 2014 are termed "Insider Preview builds". "Beta" may also indicate something more like a release candidate, or as a form of time-limited demo, or marketing technique.[9]

Beta testers are people who actively report issues of beta software. They are usually customers or representatives of prospective customers of the organization that develops the software. Beta testers tend to volunteer their services free of charge but often receive versions of the product they test, discounts on the release version, or other incentives.[citation needed]"

Not saying this is THE definition. I only dabble in software. Tesla's use doesn't seem very consistent. Using the above definition, I think Elon thinks its feature complete. I'm not what that means either. It does control the throttle, brake and steering which is maybe all it needs to do. It just timing at that point. Or does it need to recognize when someone is directing traffic and follow their instructions? Another example may be the reliance on map data. If it theoretically drives perfect with perfect map data but there is no solution to get perfect map data, is it feature complete? Does it need to go in reverse to be feature complete? The list goes on and on.

But who cares about names. from a practical matter there are likely 2 milestones:

1. A level 2 system that enhances the driving experience. For many people this is the case with Autopilot. But will even those who feel the positives outweigh the negatives(phantom braking) of Autopilot, feel that FSD Beta is enhancing the experience or more stressful because of the number of mistakes or the seriousness of the mistakes. This remains to be seen but I have heard at least one beta tester say they don't use it on normal drives. Everyone has their own threshold. My guess is it won't be there for most people when the button comes out. Kind of like Enhanced summon. But you can just not use Enhanced summon so I'm hoping they have a way to back out of FSD Beta for people who want to try it but don't want to use it all the time.

2. A level 5 system. After skimming two 10 minute 10.01 videos, one from North Carolina outside of the city and one from San Francisco, the current FSD Beta 10.01 is not anywhere near level 5.


----------



## Klaus-rf

FSD is no where close to "feature complete" - so it's still just ALPHA by your quoted definition.


----------



## M3OC Rules

Klaus-rf said:


> FSD is no where close to "feature complete" - so it's still just ALPHA by your quoted definition.


The definition of feature complete is sometimes it works for Elon. How about Beta for Level 2 and Alpha for Level 5?


----------



## Ksb466

I still think it’s cool, part of a very long process, regardless of Elons exagurating. I’m looking for to it, hopefully in a couple weeks and fully expect it’ll drive like a 14yr old, and progress slowly from there. Never understold why people expect l5 anytime soon. Just 5 yrs ago I would not have considered it possible to get to this point on this timeline. My concerns are : the positioning of the pillar cameras will forever be a limiting factor to many common situations where we naturally lean fwd. And the +5mph speed limit on local roads will forever require we override Accelerator.


----------



## Reliev

slotti said:


> If we are lucky, we will get it as a x-mas gift. Nite, I do not define the year ;-).
> Funny how people are saying I have been waiting almost 3 years....lol. My car is April 2018. I am obviously way over the 3 year mark. Almost glad there was no lease options available back then, since by know I would have returned the car that I paid a feature for that would have never happened. If I keep the car for 10 years, I might just see some of the features I paid for, lol.


March 2018 I have been waiting also but this feels more promising, what I really wonder about is how many people are going to ask for a refund when they don't "qualify" for the beta I feel this is coming next.

Also Maybe I'm positive on this but I feel that this monitoring is a 7 day push back to buy more time, I think it will be similar to ap jail when you arent paying attention but honestly just speculation at this point. I made a joke with @SoFlaModel3 last year we will see this labor day (it was right after labor day) now I'm feeling Christmas as others have said on this thread.


----------



## francoisp

I wonder how this evaluation period will work with the subscription service: hopefully it will start only after the driver has been deemed a "good driver" and not upon subscribing.


----------



## Madmolecule

When he said the driver's behavior, I don't think he's referring to the camera monitoring how well you're paying attention and driving. He is only referring to your social media post and how you behave with regard to Tesla's software. If you expect it to be untested, half baked, and you never complain, and you only say that everything they do is game changing then you will meet Tesla's good behavior criteria. Behavior is defined as not hurting their stock value regardless of what the product is like.

Tesla has still yet to answer the big question, if FSD ever is to work* who has liability for the driving of the vehicle*? I don't see how the software can ever get past beta, and the neg screens or ever lengthened or be removed until they answer this question. The software is not even to the point to where they can blame it on the regulators yet. The car still can't park in my garage or operate the windshield wipers properly. Pure vision is really just a pure vision. I would prefer pure engineering

is the AI either?


----------



## slacker775

Madmolecule said:


> Tesla has still yet to answer the big question, if FSD ever is to work* who has liability for the driving of the vehicle*? I don't see how the software can ever get past beta, and the neg screens or ever lengthened or be removed until they answer this question. The software is not even to the point to where they can blame it on the regulators yet. The car still can't park in my garage or operate the windshield wipers properly. Pure vision is really just a pure vision. I would prefer pure engineering


I don't think it's really Tesla's place to determine that liability. That's really something that will wind up being the courts. Certainly Tesla could come out and say 'always drive in AP/FSD and we will accept all liability' but we all know that aint gonna happen. Realistically, its not even a black-and-white decision as there will always be circumstances where liability could shift one way or the other. Was it a 'bug' in the FSD software (oops, forgot to carry the 1!) or was the driver in some oddball place where nobody would ever expect to drive, etc etc etc.


----------



## francoisp

I think we should not be so negative about all this stuff. Let's enjoy being part of this unique moment in history while this amazing technology unfolds. Of course there'll be irritants along the way, but let's keep in mind this effort will go on for many years before the driving intelligence is perfected enough to be judged equal to the best drivers among us. Meanwhile, I'm enjoying the ride.


----------



## nonStopSwagger

francoisp said:


> I think we should not be so negative about all this stuff. Let's enjoy being part of this unique moment in history while this amazing technology unfolds. Of course there'll be irritants along the way, but let's keep in mind this effort will go on for many years before the driving intelligence is perfected enough to be judged equal to the best drivers among us. Meanwhile, I'm enjoying the ride.


You make some good points.

I'd be more inclined to agree if Tesla would under promise and over deliver.

I still remember ordering my model 3 in 2018. One of the screens during the order process was trying to upsell autopilot/EAP/FSD. It had a video on the left side of the autopilot purchase options screen, showing a model X, with the driver using FSD hands free. The caption was something like "Coming later this year".

Anyway, prior to that I had decided I was not going to spend the many thousands extra on FSD. But that video and caption caught me during a moment of weakness. And I checked that box. I was naively believing Tesla would deliver (back then the forums didn't have as much history with how Elon operated regarding future product timelines).

Still stings.

My wife bought a model Y in 2020. Needless to say we did not buy any extra Software.


----------



## shareef777

francoisp said:


> I think we should not be so negative about all this stuff. Let's enjoy being part of this unique moment in history while this amazing technology unfolds. Of course there'll be irritants along the way, but let's keep in mind this effort will go on for many years before the driving intelligence is perfected enough to be judged equal to the best drivers among us. Meanwhile, I'm enjoying the ride.


I'm a HUGE fan of SpaceX and have cheered them on for a decade. Including the many bumps in the road they went through. I literally cried (and still do) after the dual booster landing. An achievement unlike anything ever witnessed by man before. Inspiration4 is another monumental task. Crazy that they re-wrote the rules of space travel. What they're doing with Starship is amazing, but may amount to nothing as it's all new territory never explored by anyone before.

None of that applies if you blatantly take money from customers and offer nothing in return for years! And anyone doing so will only encourage other corporations to come up with their own schemes to milk money out of potential customers.


----------



## SalisburySam

francoisp said:


> I think we should not be so negative about all this stuff.


The negativity comes from those who've paid based on expectations encouraged by Tesla, yet received little to date . A little like pre-paying for an expensive dessert and three years later still waiting at the table.


----------



## FRC

SalisburySam said:


> The negativity comes from those who've paid based on expectations encouraged by Tesla, yet received little to date . A little like pre-paying for an expensive dessert and three years later still waiting at the table.


And don't forget; you were told your dessert would arrive in about 2 weeks!


----------



## iChris93

FRC said:


> And don't forget; you were told your dessert would arrive in about 2 weeks!


I would never order a dessert at dinner if it would take 2 weeks!


----------



## francoisp

shareef777 said:


> None of that applies if you blatantly take money from customers and offer nothing in return for years! And anyone doing so will only encourage other corporations to come up with their own schemes to milk money out of potential customers.


I'm with you on that. I paid for FSD for my model 3 which I traded for a Y. I did not buy it this second time: I bought EAP instead.

That said, I do agree that Musk over-promised and that it would have been better if he presented FSD as a Kickstarter project with the risks and delays we've been accustomed to.

I say the past is in the past so let's close that chapter and get ready for the next one. And it looks promising.


----------



## Madmolecule

Yes the past is the past, but Elon hasn't stopped yet. It is pure fantasy uncertainty and doubt. I used to think there was actually engineering behind his statements and announcements a future products. Especially when he would get any detail on how it works, like when he was describing how the smart summon would work in parking decks by memorizing all the wheel positions. As an engineer it sounded hard to believe, but I couldn't imagine he would say it without it working at some degree.

But then when he came out and announced that the roadster would have cold air thrusters, I realize there was no one behind him stopping him from saying unproven untested unengineered things. One would've think they would've built a couple Proto types, with cold air thrusters, and said wow this would be cool if we put it in production. It is clear that never happened, because even if you put giga in front of it it doesn't make it better. I gigafart is still a fart.

and when I speak of liability of full self driving I need to be very clear, as soon as you are not required to pay 100% attention and have 100% control over your vehicle, tesla becomes liable for the driving, and they do not have money for that liability in the current vehicle that we have purchased. If they do they need to tell us. This is the sole reason It will never be released as full self driving, the Board of Directors will not allow it. Also they are very far from getting it working, that should be clear to all of us. They make a nice car, but as an owner, I feel I must be honest about the way they are operating.

I just think they should come clean with their customers, Explain the liability issue, and focus on enhanced driver assistance, and driver experience. Yes, and get album art working, and maybe some waypoints.

If you were sold a concept car, and then we're delivered a gremlin you would be disappointed. The same thing should be true for software, and even more so. You can't have over the air updates on an ugly car design. But at least you would think they would figure out how to paint the color blue by now.


















are used to pay extra to have my car hand washed, because I thought it was a precious investment. Then I realize it's just a car, and I run it through the auto car wash, I just wish the car wash mode did something.


----------



## shareef777

francoisp said:


> I'm with you on that. I paid for FSD for my model 3 which I traded for a Y. I did not buy it this second time: I bought EAP instead.
> 
> That said, I do agree that Musk over-promised and that it would have been better if he presented FSD as a Kickstarter project with the risks and delays we've been accustomed to.
> 
> I say the past is in the past so let's close that chapter and get ready for the next one. And it looks promising.


You should tell Elon cause he's still taking peoples money.


----------



## M3OC Rules

francoisp said:


> I wonder how this evaluation period will work with the subscription service: hopefully it will start only after the driver has been deemed a "good driver" and not upon subscribing.


Elon said they will use their insurance evaluator for one week to determine if the user is a "good driver." But I think everyone is assuming that everyone who is a "good driver" will get FSD Beta. It's also possible that they are just expanding the beta pool. And maybe will slowly add more over time like they have been doing.


----------



## SalisburySam

francoisp said:


> I say the past is in the past so let's close that chapter and get ready for the next one. And it looks promising.


Nice of you to say. And I'm with you. Just as soon as I either get (a) FSD, or (b) my money back. In the interim, the past happened, hasn't been rectified, and I want reparations.


----------



## shareef777

SalisburySam said:


> Nice of your to say. And I'm with you. Just as soon as I either get (a) FSD, or (b) my money back. In the interim, the past happened, hasn't been rectified, and I want reparations.


Right 😂 , it's technically not the past if it's still happening.

For me, add (c) "allow transfer of FSD to a vehicle that won't be a pile of rust by the time it's released"


----------



## Reliev

I saw this on reddit and laughed so I had to share

__
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/prlz7i


----------



## ig0p0g0

It hit me when listening to a report about Tesla on the radio yesterday. Elon may be thrilled if the NTSB hits the brakes on autopilot. This may give him a way to avoid refunding a bunch of money since it was those darned regulators that held him back from releasing an otherwise perfect FSD.


----------



## shareef777

ig0p0g0 said:


> It hit me when listening to a report about Tesla on the radio yesterday. Elon may be thrilled if the NTSB hits the brakes on autopilot. This may give him a way to avoid refunding a bunch of money since it was those darned regulators that held him back from releasing an otherwise perfect FSD.


I'm not so much looking for a refund anymore. I'm guessing the T&C essentially stated we paid for a kickstarter, not a matter of when, but if (ie, product not guaranteed) 🤷‍♂️

Question is, can he continue to sell the non-product to new unsuspecting buyers?


----------



## Long Ranger

shareef777 said:


> Question is, can he continue to sell the non-product to new unsuspecting buyers?


But he only has to do that for two more days!

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1438747500010168322
⏳⏳


----------



## M3OC Rules

shareef777 said:


> I'm not so much looking for a refund anymore. I'm guessing the T&C essentially stated we paid for a kickstarter, not a matter of when, but if (ie, product not guaranteed) 🤷‍♂️
> 
> Question is, can he continue to sell the non-product to new unsuspecting buyers?


They could make them change the name and the website but then Elon will just start calling it Not Full Self Driving and the website is already watered down. Basically all they need to do is remove the 4 year old FSD video. But even that shows a guy monitoring the car.


----------



## slacker775

M3OC Rules said:


> They could make them change the name and the website but then Elon will just start calling it Not Full Self Driving and the website is already watered down. Basically all they need to do is remove the 4 year old FSD video. But even that shows a guy monitoring the car.


I don't think anyone should make too many assumptions the kinds of things the NHTSA can actually do. I suspect there will be little to nothing out of this whole investigation.


----------



## M3OC Rules

slacker775 said:


> I don't think anyone should make too many assumptions the kinds of things the NHTSA can actually do. I suspect there will be little to nothing out of this whole investigation.


Sorry. Just my opinion on what they can reasonably do, not what they can do. My opinion is just that they don't really have a good case to prohibit the use of Tesla's assist features especially since Tesla is addressing some of the biggest complaints, better driver monitoring and running into emergency vehicles. Maybe they could justify delaying City Streets rollout until Tesla provides more safety data and stop the public beta. The one thing Tesla isn't budging on is the name. I think it would almost be best case scenario if they forced them to change the name. Elon can complain about regulators and the regulators can say they improved safety. I don't know if changing the name at this point has much consequence at all. Maybe people would make less assumptions about current capabilities which could be good.


----------



## FRC

ig0p0g0 said:


> It hit me when listening to a report about Tesla on the radio yesterday. Elon may be thrilled if the NTSB hits the brakes on autopilot. This may give him a way to avoid refunding a bunch of money since it was those darned regulators that held him back from releasing an otherwise perfect FSD.


What a horrible, ugly, and perfectly valid thought!


----------



## bwilson4web

I look forward to reading how the "insurance" scan (scam?) works for early adopters.

Bob Wilson


----------



## francoisp

I was listening to a live talk by Dirty Tesla and he said something interesting. He said that on the Tesla website, which should be considered as the legal "authority" in the matter, it is mentioned that FSD will be completed when Autosteer on City Streets is officially available and that nowhere is it mentioned what level of self-driving must be achieved.

I'm with him on that. I believe that once Autosteer on City Streets is officially released, Tesla will call it "Done". It doesn't mean that efforts will stop there: it only means that this critical milestone has been met. Development will continue, and move the software closer and closer to the fable level 4. Tesla doesn't have choice because Xpeng and other Chinese ev manufacturers are right behind to take the crown from it.


----------



## shareef777

francoisp said:


> I was listening to a live talk by Dirty Tesla and he said something interesting. He said that on the Tesla website, which should be considered as the legal "authority" in the matter, it is mentioned that FSD will be completed when Autosteer on City Streets is officially available and that nowhere is it mentioned what level of self-driving must be achieved.
> 
> I'm with him on that. I believe that once Autosteer on City Streets is officially released, Tesla will call it "Done". It doesn't mean that efforts will stop there: it only means that this critical milestone has been met. Development will continue, and move the software closer and closer to the fable level 4. Tesla doesn't have choice because Xpeng and other Chinese ev manufacturers are right behind to take the crown from it.


That'd be fair enough. It's not like FSD can be 100% accurate day one. However, then future buyers will be able to decide on their own if they want to shell out $10k for a work in progress. A work that can possibly take 10 years (past the lifetime of the vehicle they're buying it for).


----------



## nonStopSwagger

shareef777 said:


> That'd be fair enough. It's not like FSD can be 100% accurate day one. However, then future buyers will be able to decide on their own if they want to shell out $10k for a work in progress. A work that can possibly take 10 years (past the lifetime of the vehicle they're buying it for). I tell everyone buying a new tesla to skip paying the 10k when they.buubthe car, and just do the $200 a month thing. Almost everyone ends up cancelling after they try NoA for a few trips, as they find it stressful to monitor.


My feeling is FSD on city streets will be even more stressful to monitor. Some of the YouTubers out there using it have confirmed this. You can hear Chuck Cooke groan and strain a lot on his videos.


shareef777 said:


> That'd be fair enough. It's not like FSD can be 100% accurate day one. However, then future buyers will be able to decide on their own if they want to shell out $10k for a work in progress. A work that can possibly take 10 years (past the lifetime of the vehicle they're buying it for).


The best thing Tesla did recently was offer full self-driving as a subscription. Any of my friends who were buying a Tesla and ask about FSD for 10k, I tell them to skip it and just try out the subscription.

Most of them try it for a month, tell me it's not worth it afterwards and cancel. Navigate on autopilot is too stressful to baby sit, it's their biggest complaint.

I suspect that full self-driving on city streets is going to be even more stressful to babysit for those folks. Will it catch on?


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## FRC

I wonder how we'll feel if/when Tesla says driving on city streets makes FSD feature complete.

"And now introducing SUPER FSD, which includes Level 3 hands-free driving and should be out in about 2 weeks. Price to existing buyers $5K if you act now! New buyers will be $7K and prices will increase over time. Don't miss out, buy now!!"


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## Ksb466

nonStopSwagger said:


> My feeling is FSD on city streets will be even more stressful to monitor. Some of the YouTubers out there using it have confirmed this. You can hear Chuck Cooke groan and strain a lot on his videos.
> 
> The best thing Tesla did recently was offer full self-driving as a subscription. Any of my friends who were buying a Tesla and ask about FSD for 10k, I tell them to skip it and just try out the subscription.
> 
> Most of them try it for a month, tell me it's not worth it afterwards and cancel. Navigate on autopilot is too stressful to baby sit, it's their biggest complaint.
> 
> I suspect that full self-driving on city streets is going to be even more stressful to babysit for those folks. Will it catch on?


Right, I hope folks recognize buying FSD means they are part of a long, gradual process. The cynical will see users as guinea-pigs, optimists will see it as an inside window to one of the great tech evolutions of our time. Anyone thinking they will read the newspaper while the car drives anytime soon will be disappointed. A trial month or two is probably best for most folks. Personally, I'm looking forward to using it and seeing it evolve, but just like EAP, will mostly use it on the more mundane scenarios (not in construction, around emergency vehicles, or high-volume inner city driving).


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## shareef777

FRC said:


> I wonder how we'll feel if/when Tesla says driving on city streets makes FSD feature complete.
> 
> "And now introducing SUPER FSD, which includes Level 3 hands-free driving and should be out in about 2 weeks. Price to existing buyers $5K if you act now! New buyers will be $7K and prices will increase over time. Don't miss out, buy now!!"


I see exactly zero chance of that happening. FSD IS FSD, nothing beyond that. There'll definitely be more price increases in the future though.


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## iChris93

FRC said:


> I wonder how we'll feel if/when Tesla says driving on city streets makes FSD feature complete.
> 
> "And now introducing SUPER FSD, which includes Level 3 hands-free driving and should be out in about 2 weeks. Price to existing buyers $5K if you act now! New buyers will be $7K and prices will increase over time. Don't miss out, buy now!!"


💀


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## FRC

shareef777 said:


> I see exactly zero chance of that happening. FSD IS FSD, nothing beyond that. There'll definitely be more price increases in the future though.


Something doesn't add up...if you're right, and FSD is FSD, then how can it be feature complete at city streets? Isn't there much, much more to be implemented before FSD is what you thought you were buying? To me there is. The thing that keeps sticking with me is Elon, in early 2018, saying that by that years end FSD would drive him from LA to NYC with NO human intervention. More than anything else, that is what made me "invest" in FSD.


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## shareef777

FRC said:


> Something doesn't add up...if you're right, and FSD is FSD, then how can it be feature complete at city streets? Isn't there much, much more to be implemented before FSD is what you thought you were buying? To me there is. The thing that keeps sticking with me is Elon, in early 2018, saying that by that years end FSD would drive him from LA to NYC with NO human intervention. More than anything else, that is what made me "invest" in FSD.


Well, he can "release" FSD to the public with the disclaimer that the driver has to pay attention (ie Level2) and blame regulators/government that they won't allow drivers to not pay attention, or be honest and say Tesla needs more data/time to perfect Level3+.

As for the drive from LA to NY, well that likely won't happen with your current vehicle.

On a personal note, I posted that FSD will likely take a decade before I even bought my Tesla. Thing is I still invested as I was to be part of the evolution of FSD. I'd get to experience the software improve over the years. I knew I'd have to baby it, but I was fine with that. I'm a geek at heart and seeing the technology in action, understand what the limits are and what the engineers are doing to get around those limits is what I paid for. Front row seat to the eventual future we'll all be driving around in. Didn't think I paid to watch a bunch of YouTube nobodies get that privilege instead.


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## iChris93

shareef777 said:


> Didn't think I paid to watch a bunch of YouTube nobodies get that privilege instead.


No respect for the chosen ones?


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## francoisp

shareef777 said:


> That'd be fair enough. It's not like FSD can be 100% accurate day one. However, then future buyers will be able to decide on their own if they want to shell out $10k for a work in progress. A work that can possibly take 10 years (past the lifetime of the vehicle they're buying it for).


I have a feeling that Tesla may stop offering FSD as a one-time purchase once it's officially released and go subscription-only from that point forward. Kind of make sense when considering the long-term effort ($$$) that will be required to attain level 4. For the same reason I seriously doubt Tesla will ever allow transferring FSD to a new car.


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## shareef777

francoisp said:


> I have a feeling that Tesla may stop offering FSD as a one-time purchase once it's officially released and go subscription-only from that point forward. Kind of make sense when considering the long-term effort ($$$) that will be required to attain level 4. For the same reason I seriously doubt Tesla will ever allow transferring FSD to a new car.


I can see it happening as a one time courtesy for everyone that paid full price before they cut over to subscription only.


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## theclam

It is amazing, it has been way overpromised in both timing and capability - but is still amazing. I have it in both my Tesla's and $10k is the limit. Other manufactures charge a much lower price, of course they suck, but the gap will close over time.... Elon needs to under promise and over deliver, he is not capable of that. Cybertruck, is at risk of severe market loss due to it being delivered late and after Rivian and Ford Lighening, and Autopilot is far from having Summon work properly and all weather driving being possible, if ever. 

Again, i am a huge Elon fan, where things are at are amazing, but the story being sold is still 5 years+ away with robo-taxi's etc..


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## slacker775

I wouldn’t worry too much about CT coming after Rivian and Ford. First off, neither Rivian nor Ford have delivered an EV truck though it seems like Rivian is any day now. After they start delivering, there is no sizeable ramp-up on either side to fill the potential demand. If there are only 50k Lightnings produced annually for world-wide distribution, there is still a pretty large amount of that market available to competitors. If Ford was putting out 1M EV trucks, Tesla would have a lot to worry about.


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## shareef777

slacker775 said:


> I wouldn't worry too much about CT coming after Rivian and Ford. First off, neither Rivian nor Ford have delivered an EV truck though it seems like Rivian is any day now. After they start delivering, there is no sizeable ramp-up on either side to fill the potential demand. If there are only 50k Lightnings produced annually for world-wide distribution, there is still a pretty large amount of that market available to competitors. If Ford was putting out 1M EV trucks, Tesla would have a lot to worry about.


That's the thing. Once Ford (and the other manufacturers) sees the pent up demand for a quality EV truck they'll ramp up or jump in really quick. I bet most of these manufacturers still think EVs are a fad. I bet a lot of the purely truck owners wouldn't even waste a second to look at an EV. But once the blood is in the water (so to speak with the Ford Lightning) it's going to be pure pandemonium. The Lightning is a Trojan horse for EV ownership and Ford doesn't even know it 😂

I'm willing to bet that the Ford Lightning is going to significantly eat into F150 sales. Once a truck buyer sees all the benefits an EV has over the gas variant, they won't go back nor replace their existing one unless it's an EV.


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## slacker775

shareef777 said:


> That's the thing. Once Ford (and the other manufacturers) sees the pent up demand for a quality EV truck they'll ramp up or jump in really quick. I bet most of these manufacturers still think EVs are a fad. I bet a lot of the purely truck owners wouldn't even waste a second to look at an EV. But once the blood is in the water (so to speak with the Ford Lightning) it's going to be pure pandemonium. The Lightning is a Trojan horse for EV ownership and Ford doesn't even know it 😂
> 
> I'm willing to bet that the Ford Lightning is going to significantly eat into F150 sales. Once a truck buyer sees all the benefits an EV has over the gas variant, they won't go back nor replace their existing one unless it's an EV.


Wanting to ramp up and being able to ramp are two different things - as evidenced by Tesla in 2017-2018. You have to have all of materials and suppliers lined up etc. Many manufacturers may not have the battery capacity to scale up as desired.


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## shareef777

slacker775 said:


> Wanting to ramp up and being able to ramp are two different things - as evidenced by Tesla in 2017-2018. You have to have all of materials and suppliers lined up etc. Many manufacturers may not have the battery capacity to scale up as desired.


Agreed. as evidenced by Tesla in ... today


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## slacker775

shareef777 said:


> Agreed. as evidenced by Tesla in ... today


Also true. They have a lot of production capability today and still can't meet that demand. That's what blows my mind when you see the legacy Mfrs targeting 50k annual rates etc for ramp up. I'm curious how much of that is uncertainty/doubt on demand and how much is just logistics.


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## Reliev

so if the button is really there do I need to set an alarm at 3 am on Saturday morning? does anyone have any idea? because the date is coming. If it gives me an advantage ill do it


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## slacker775

My interpretation was that the ‘button’ would be available tomorrow and then we got the 1 week safe driver wrinkle meaning we wouldn’t really get the beta until next week. Or all of that is actually a week later. Or perhaps the infamous two weeks? In other words, who knows!


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## DocScott

Ksb466 said:


> Anyone thinking they will read the newspaper while the car drives anytime soon will be disappointed.


This really bothers me (not you, Ksb466, but the fact you're referring to!).

If Tesla had put some effort in to it, they could have us reading the newspaper while the car drives by now.

_Not _all the time. But, say, on an interstate when the traffic is light? Or maybe in stop and go traffic when the speed is under, say. 15 mph?

Those are both L3 cases, and they're a heckuva lot easier than having the car kinda sorta have a shot at maybe doing the right thing in any situation that could come up.

And which is more _useful_: a car where you have to pay lots of attention all the time to make sure that it doesn't do something awful, or a car where you don't have to pay attention at all some of the time and the rest of the time you just drive normally? Put that way, it seems obvious to me.

But Elon and Tesla have this weird notion that you get to L5 by having the car make some kind of attempt in all situations and then iterate until it's good, rather than finding situations where its good and then iterate out to more situations. That doesn't mean high-resolution maps--I agree with Elon that you can't really iterate your way out of the area you have the high-resolution map; those approaches won't ever get us to L5. But I do think you could have a Tesla-type system identify "easy" situations and get good enough at those to allow the car to drive itself. "Partial self-driving," I guess, but for real: part of the time it would drive itself without monitoring being necessary.


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## Bigriver

DocScott said:


> If Tesla had put some effort in to it, they could have us reading the newspaper while the car drives by now.
> 
> _Not _all the time. But, say, on an interstate when the traffic is light? Or maybe in stop and go traffic when the speed is under, say. 15 mph?


Chuck Cook, a FSD Beta tester, talks about "the easy stuff" a bit in this video






I only watched a few minutes of this (I don't have the attention span for long YouTube's), but he did mention how well FSD does on the easy stuff. Of course that doesn't mean it's to the point that it's time to unfold that newspaper (is that still a thing?), but it made me more confident that it is quite good in the basics.


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## Reliev

Bigriver said:


> Chuck Cook, a FSD Beta tester, talks about "the easy stuff" a bit in this video
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I only watched a few minutes of this (I don't have the attention span for long YouTube's), but he did mention how well FSD does on the easy stuff. Of course that doesn't mean it's to the point that it's time to unfold that newspaper (is that still a thing?), but it made me more confident that it is quite good in the basics.


a while ago maybe 8 or 9 years ago I was in san Diego and they have the hov lanes blocked off for I wanna say it was waymo (I can ask my friend who lives there) I saw a dude reading the old school newspaper when the car was driving itself (no cars, of course, they had special permission or something) it was wild to me.


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## shareef777

I think they have the “easy stuff” nailed down already. There’s a constant stretch of road (~15mi) that I drive. Speed limit about 45mph and about a dozen lights. I engage AP at the start and it’s absolutely PERFECT every time! Stops at every red light, dings me when they turn green (drives thru when I pull the stalk on green lights or when driving behind another vehicle). I use the turn stalk to get around slow moving vehicles (if FSD was available it would do that on its own). Generally takes me about 20-25min for this commute and I’d honestly trust FSD with my eyes closed. THIS is where they should/could have released L3, and is also the reason (legal liability) I truly believe they never will.


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## DocScott

shareef777 said:


> I think they have the "easy stuff" nailed down already. There's a constant stretch of road (~15mi) that I drive. Speed limit about 45mph and about a dozen lights. I engage AP at the start and it's absolutely PERFECT every time! Stops at every red light, dings me when they turn green (drives thru when I pull the stalk on green lights or when driving behind another vehicle). I use the turn stalk to get around slow moving vehicles (if FSD was available it would do that on its own). Generally takes me about 20-25min for this commute and I'd honestly trust FSD with my eyes closed. THIS is where they should/could have released L3, and is also the reason (legal liability) I truly believe they never will.


Yes, but for L3 the _car_ has to recognize that it can do that stretch perfectly, so that it knows it's OK to drive without constant monitoring. And they'd also need to work on the transition out of L3 when needed. Those are tricky problems, but not as tricky as doing everything better than a human driver everywhere at all times. Tesla has shown little interest in addressing those tasks.


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## slacker775

DocScott said:


> Yes, but for L3 the _car_ has to recognize that it can do that stretch perfectly, so that it knows it's OK to drive without constant monitoring. And they'd also need to work on the transition out of L3 when needed. Those are tricky problems, but not as tricky as doing everything better than a human driver everywhere at all times. Tesla has shown little interest in addressing those tasks.


I still can't help but feel that Tesla is by-and-large completely ignoring the SAE defined levels, and rightly so. From a technical standpoint, if you were to use those as you're targets you'd waste massive amounts of time and energy and never actually achieve L5. Realisitically, in my highway driving with AP/FSD here in Florida, it's essentially L3. I 'have to pay attention' but that's a purely superficial requirement. The car drives fine under normal conditions. There really is no scenario where the car can just know from the outset that it can drive a particular stretch without any issues at all. There is always the potential for road debris, cars stopped in the middle of the road, construction, etc that would potentially require some amount of driver attention. If the car can figure out and handle those scenarios, then you are looking at L5 and thus L3 and L4 are basically skipped.

The significant difference between Tesla's efforts and seemingly every other group developing self-driving is that Tesla is designing the system for the real world and all of it's complexities whereas everyone else seems to be trying to put the real world into an idealistic bubble with perfectly mapped, never-changing roadways which is not a recipe for success.


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## shareef777

slacker775 said:


> I still can't help but feel that Tesla is by-and-large completely ignoring the SAE defined levels, and rightly so. From a technical standpoint, if you were to use those as you're targets you'd waste massive amounts of time and energy and never actually achieve L5. Realisitically, in my highway driving with AP/FSD here in Florida, it's essentially L3. I 'have to pay attention' but that's a purely superficial requirement. The car drives fine under normal conditions. There really is no scenario where the car can just know from the outset that it can drive a particular stretch without any issues at all. There is always the potential for road debris, cars stopped in the middle of the road, construction, etc that would potentially require some amount of driver attention. If the car can figure out and handle those scenarios, then you are looking at L5 and thus L3 and L4 are basically skipped.
> 
> The significant difference between Tesla's efforts and seemingly every other group developing self-driving is that Tesla is designing the system for the real world and all of it's complexities whereas everyone else seems to be trying to put the real world into an idealistic bubble with perfectly mapped, never-changing roadways which is not a recipe for success.


On a related note, AP STILL uses (incorrect) map data. A particular stretch of road I engage AP on always limits speed to 30mph, even though all the posted signs say 40mph. It'd jump to 40mph then immediately go back down to 30mph after a few seconds. Incidentally it only happens going eastbound on the road. Used to be a problem westbound too but that's been fixed. Eastbound still problematic almost two years now.


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## FRC

shareef777 said:


> On a related note, AP STILL uses (incorrect) map data. A particular stretch of road I engage AP on always limits speed to 30mph, even though all the posted signs say 40mph. It'd jump to 40mph then immediately go back down to 30mph after a few seconds. Incidentally it only happens going eastbound on the road. Used to be a problem westbound too but that's been fixed. Eastbound still problematic almost two years now.


I have a major roadway near me with 55 speed limit. But AP reads the 40 mph minimum speed limit signs as maximum.


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## ig0p0g0

shareef777 said:


> That's the thing. Once Ford (and the other manufacturers) sees the pent up demand for a quality EV truck they'll ramp up or jump in really quick.


I have a Ford Focus electric. I have zero confidence that Ford can (has the will to) produce any electric vehicle that will win over a customer who would otherwise drive a Tesla. Frustrating as things have been, Tesla has shown a commitment to continuous improvement. That has not been my experience with/ perception of other US automakers for a long time, especially when it comes to electric.


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## shareef777

ig0p0g0 said:


> I have a Ford Focus electric. I have zero confidence that Ford can (has the will to) produce any electric vehicle that will win over a customer who would otherwise drive a Tesla. Frustrating as things have been, Tesla has shown a commitment to continuous improvement. That has not been my experience with/ perception of other US automakers for a long time, especially when it comes to electric.


Don't think it's fair to compare a small, niche, limited range product to their upcoming truck. Tesla isn't the only company that can learn and evolve. And what exactly has Tesla improved? It most definitely isn't customer service!

Not saying Ford is better, but Tesla has proven they have their own pitfalls and that may be just enough to get people to look elsewhere. And just like Tesla has their fan club, so do the other manufacturers. Shoot, the anti-Tesla "fanbase" is probably larger then any single fanbase of a particular brand.


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## garsh

ig0p0g0 said:


> I have a Ford Focus electric. I have zero confidence that Ford can (has the will to) produce any electric vehicle that will win over a customer who would otherwise drive a Tesla.


Both the Mustang Mach-E and the F-150 Lightning look very compelling to me. They're the first EVs to come along that are good enough to make me consider them instead of a Tesla. The main thing keeping me in the Tesla camp would be the supercharging network.


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## StevieC

slacker775 said:


> Wanting to ramp up and being able to ramp are two different things - as evidenced by Tesla in 2017-2018. You have to have all of materials and suppliers lined up etc. Many manufacturers may not have the battery capacity to scale up as desired.


As Elon has said, "Prototypes are easy. Production is hard. "


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## Madmolecule

It's a lot easier to sell a fantasy then produce it


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## GDN

We've been trying to keep the new FSD Beta and Safety Score posts aligned to just a couple of threads. If you're missing a post or about to post on one of those two topics please go to the appropriate thread:

*FSD BETA - https://teslaownersonline.com/threads/fsd-beta-queue.18791/post-319381*

*or

SAFETY SCORE - https://teslaownersonline.com/threads/whats-your-safety-score.18798/post-319480*

Thank you and Happy Scoring for a Beta you'll likely never have


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## Klaus-rf

GDN said:


> Thank you and Happy Scoring for a Beta you'll likely never have


Always the optimist!!


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## francoisp

garsh said:


> Both the Mustang Mach-E and the F-150 Lightning look very compelling to me. They're the first EVs to come along that are good enough to make me consider them instead of a Tesla. The main thing keeping me in the Tesla camp would be the supercharging network.


Just wait until the Chinese ev wave reaches our shore: Ford, Stelantis and GM may just drown. And Tesla will need to recheck its prices if it wants to survive. Everything the Americans do, the Chinese can do better and cheaper. And that will include FSD.


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## Madmolecule

The Japanese have been pretty good at the copy and improve model. All signs are they are committed to ice vehicles, but that does not affect the development of automated driving and driving experience as well as infotainment. It’s not like the Japanese know anything about robots.Adding an electric drivetrain and batteries later it’s not a difficult switch for an advanced manufacture. 
I used to be the kid pulling on a Briggs & Stratton engine all summer long, then I got a Honda, and realized motors can actually start on the second pull everytime.


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## M3OC Rules

DocScott said:


> _Not _all the time. But, say, on an interstate when the traffic is light? Or maybe in stop and go traffic when the speed is under, say. 15 mph?
> 
> Those are both L3 cases, and they're a heckuva lot easier than having the car kinda sorta have a shot at maybe doing the right thing in any situation that could come up.


How is L3 in stop and go under 15 mph any different than what they have from a practical standpoint? I see very little driver benefit and added liability for Tesla. And then endless criticism that they promise L5 and deliver L3 under 15 mph.

Anything more than under 15 mph stop and go for L3 and you start having to solve all the same problems. No one else is doing this and some people say it can't or shouldn't be done. If you look at the closest competitor, Mobileye, they are skipping L3 as well. They coined the term L2+ and are aggressively working on L4.

I do agree that if they focused on L2 they could do better than they do now. But if L4/L5 is solved, Tesla focusing on L2 will end up looking short sighted.


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## DocScott

M3OC Rules said:


> How is L3 in stop and go under 15 mph any different than what they have from a practical standpoint?


I've sometimes been caught in a traffic jam like that for an hour or more. Having AP is a lot better than nothing, but it would be great to just be able to check out from active monitoring--maybe play a video game or watch a movie or whatever. The car could then tell me when the traffic jam started to break up, and I could take over within 30 seconds no problem.


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## Madmolecule

AI day is coming soon!!! I can’t wait to see the new Dojo Robotaxi PowerPoint. Odd to sue company that has too many bots, when he can’t even build one, even though you announced yours a year ago (including height and weight). I’m sure you will be posting a laughing meme then to silence all your critics who don’t believe you have FSD as a non-demo product or a working bot. I’m not sure when the last tweet I saw that had useful information. maybe that’s part of the genius of the plan, showing how Twitter is filled with false information and bots and Tesla is all truth and no bots. Just a controlled explosion 💥


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## Madmolecule

I hope I wasn’t the only one that thought there was no chance he was coming back from sabbatical. But Elon has had about six months to come up with the new person. maybe Shivon could do it, she’s super smart


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