# TSLA Analyst Coverage - 2019 Q4



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

It looks like we never started a Q4 thread.
Better late than never. 

Let's kick this off with an uplifting article by Ihor Dusaniwsky

S3 ANALYTICS: TESLA SHORTS RUNNING OUT OF GAS


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1186977959191764992


----------



## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

I have access to every major wall street analyst's rating and target price-- 30 of them. Funny most still don't believe. The average target price is now $281.88 with a "hold" rating...


----------



## FRC (Aug 4, 2018)

Mr. Spacely said:


> I have access to every major wall street analyst's rating and target price-- 30 of them. Funny most still don't believe. The average target price is now $281.88 with a "hold" rating...


What was that average 24 hrs ago?


----------



## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

$235 had been the average target price, so they did increase it overall...


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

*Short sellers betting against Tesla lose more than $1 billion in single day as stock surges*

_Investors betting against Tesla collectively lost more than $1 billion on Thursday as the company's stock headed for its best day since 2013..._


----------



## M3OC Rules (Nov 18, 2016)

Mr. Spacely said:


> $235 had been the average target price, so they did increase it overall...


Sounds like they do a good job predicting what just happened.


----------



## John (Apr 16, 2016)

Analysts face more social pressure than people think. It's not just numbers. 
They have many stakeholders that pressure them. Including people who pay interest on borrowed shares.


----------



## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

It is fascinating to read the analysts reports and see how behind they are. Here are some quotes:

"The acquisition of SolarCity and Elon Musk's recent erratic behavior adds uncertainty. The stock has massive key man risk. Mass EV adoption by consumers could be many more years away than Tesla expects. If demand does not materialize, the company is likely to struggle to recoup the costs of the gigafactory. Audi, BMW, Mercedes, and others are no longer ignoring BEVs.
In a January 2014 Automotive News interview, Musk said in regard to Tesla making it: "I think we will, but this is not a bold assertion we unequivocally will. There is a possibility we may not."
Downside risks: 1) inability to continue raising low-cost capital to fund business ventures, 2) Inability to generate positive earnings and Free Cash Flow, 3) slower ramp in electric vehicle demand, 4) setbacks or lack of advancements in battery technology, 5) fierce competition from incumbent OEMs, 6) inability to execute efficiently with higher volume, 7) low gasoline prices, and 8) loss of key mgmt.


----------



## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

social media was pretty heated yesterday between the $TSLAQ and everyone else... Including many high profile Tesla positive accounts being suspended after $TSLAQ users reporting them to twitter. (guess that's one way to feel better about yourself after losing a collective $billion+)
here's one account of a shorter getting out (after huge losses). even after getting majorly beaten, his general sentiment is still Tesla is a scam and worth shorting. amazing.
click thru to see the entire thread


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1187388170242932738


----------



## iChris93 (Feb 3, 2017)

MelindaV said:


> social media was pretty heated yesterday between the $TSLAQ and everyone else... Including many high profile Tesla positive accounts being suspended after $TSLAQ users reporting them to twitter. (guess that's one way to feel better about yourself after losing a collective $billion+)
> here's one account of a shorter getting out (after huge losses). even after getting majorly beaten, his general sentiment is still Tesla is a scam and worth shorting. amazing.
> click thru to see the entire thread
> 
> ...


The profile picture is enough...


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

_"...as someone who *lost the vast majority of his net worth*, I view this as a positive experience."_
Holy Crap! That person really drank the TSLAQ koolaid.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1187388185900281858
His twitter profile says "aspiring finance professional." 












MelindaV said:


> here's one account of a shorter getting out (after huge losses). even after getting majorly beaten, his general sentiment is still Tesla is a scam and worth shorting. amazing.
> click thru to see the entire thread
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1187388170242932738


----------



## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

garsh said:


> His twitter profile says "aspiring finance professional."


lets hope if he does gain a professional position, his future employer and clients do a little twitter-research and see what a fool his has proven to be


----------



## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

maybe he should have been a better pitcher, then would've had something more productive to fill his days


----------



## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

TSLA is up another $24 per share today! Shorts covering?


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Mr. Spacely said:


> TSLA is up another $24 per share today! Shorts covering?


It sounds like there was only minor covering yesterday.
Too early for a report about today. Check Ihor's twitter account tomorrow - I bet he's watching TSLA closely right now. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1187460591864209419


----------



## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

John said:


> Analysts face more social pressure than people think. It's not just numbers.
> They have many stakeholders that pressure them. Including people who pay interest on borrowed shares.


You say "stakeholders." I say "conflicts of interest."  I remember the 1990s. And 2000s. And.....etc.


----------



## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

garsh said:


> His twitter profile says "aspiring finance professional."


"*Studying for the CFA* and constantly tweeting about $*TSLA* "

Ummm....At least he'll learn _something_?


----------



## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

MelindaV said:


> maybe he should have been a better pitcher, then would've had something more productive to fill his days


CLOSE
*Ryan Doherty 37 P*

Full Name: *Ryan Daniel Doherty*
Born: *February 2, 1984*
Age: *35*
Birthplace: *Toms River, NJ*
Bats: *R*
Throws: *R*
Height: *7' 1"*
Weight: *255*
School: *Notre Dame*
Signed as a non-drafted free agent, June 11, 2005...signed by Mike Rizzo. *Believed to the be the tallest pitcher in both NCAA Division I and professional baseball history.*

Should've played basketball.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

*How Tesla Increased Its Margins on Lower Sales*
*Elon Musk and company continue to work their magic.*


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Opinion: Tesla's competitors find that going electric has its own set of problems
Woah. A mainstream article discussing how other companies are having trouble successfully creating a viable EV.

ChargePoint CEO On Tesla Being Early, The Model 3, And Tesla 'Bashing'
Nice support from the CEO of ChargePoint.

I can't believe there are two positive mainstream articles. Have the institutional TSLA short sellers given up?

Tesla's service and used car revenue is growing, but can't make up for a plunge in US vehicle sales
Bwahahaha! I should have guessed.
Since Tesla is still selling every car they can produce, I assume that the "plunge" in US sales is due to diverting even more production overseas.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

garsh said:


> Tesla's service and used car revenue is growing, but can't make up for a plunge in US vehicle sales


Evannex tackles this exact issue wonderfully:

HOW WEAK IS TESLA MODEL 3 DEMAND IN THE UNITED STATES?


----------



## Curt Renz (May 22, 2017)

Benzinga - this afternoon: Cathie Wood interview


----------



## John (Apr 16, 2016)

I think you can simplify Kathy's arguments a lot.

(C'mon, you know you love simplification, don't pretend you don't all of a sudden.)

Cars-like, hmm, everything else including dog walking and vacationing-are becoming a software game.

Tesla is the only car company that is competent at software. In fact, given how software is woven throughout design (remember the sims of safety crashes), manufacturing, and the car itself (updates, nav, entertainment, no keys, self-driving, lighting, braking, security, communications, internet, games) one could say that in automaker terms Tesla is brilliant at software.

So let's take it a step further. Alan Kay once said, "If you are serious about software, you make your own hardware."

That serves to amplify the competitive advantage further: Tesla makes the most advanced AI chip-that they designed themselves-for self-driving. It is optimized exactly for what they use it for (because, remember, they are serious about software, so they know exactly what they need). They design all of their circuit boards and most of their controllers.

By my reckoning, Tesla is three orders of magnitude better at software than trad automakers.

To wit:

Tesla already is quite capable at hiring very good software engineers ("Top engineers want to work on exciting projects," as Elon recent said at an Air Force suppliers conference about SpaceX)
Most of Tesla's engineers are software engineers; that is not true for any other car maker
Tesla's job openings and hiring have long been dominated by software positions
Tesla can update every software system over the air; at most, some trad automakers can trivially update one or two (out of roughly a dozen including engine control, braking, security, driving, navigation, comfort, convenience, safety, battery management, personalization, audio, help, communications); not all of them have mobile apps that customers commonly use with the cars
Tesla can manage software complexity-they do not make the casual assumption that cars of the same model year are the same, they have figured out a (rather quite complex) way to make a myriad of different cars all work and be updated, and they allow a family to use one mobile app for all cars (and solar systems) they own
Automakers kid themselves if they think they can purchase or outsource or partner to get software from third parties to do all of this in the same manner they currently turn to nav or audio companies to supply systems whose sole interface is +12V and some dedicated mechanical buttons. It would be analogous to them putting out a bid for "all of the electronics in our new electronic car," or expecting them all to integrate with each other nicely.

No wonder they can't seem to introduce new cars quickly. This is going to be a nightmare for them.

The think it's about hardware (powerful motors, large batteries, fancy upholstery, chrome, pretty sheet metal with cool fighter jet styling).

It partly is.

But it's _mostly _about software. And software is hard for people who are _already good _at it.


----------



## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

"Wood told Benzinga she has January 21 long calls with a $420 strike price. "


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

Ihor thinks that a price of $390 will be enough to make the shorts start to give up on TSLAQ.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1192530792892829698


----------



## Mr. Spacely (Feb 28, 2019)

John said:


> But it's _mostly _about software. And software is hard for people who are _already good _at it.


Exactly. So why do investment firms have their automotive analysts following TSLA? Their software analysts would have a better understanding of all that Tesla does...


----------



## John (Apr 16, 2016)

Mr. Spacely said:


> Exactly. So why do investment firms have their automotive analysts following TSLA? Their software analysts would have a better understanding of all that Tesla does...


Judging by the investment analyses and opinions, no-I think they are still pretty much in silos. Auto analysts. Tech analysts. And I'm not sure AI, NNs, or ML even have dedicated analysts anywhere (except may ARK, who I imagine trad Wall Street firms look at as fringe).

There is an ongoing criticism on the Street that Tesla's stock value seems to enjoy a tech earnings multiple, but that's usually cited as an offhand criticism rather than an earnest opening for discussions of the increasingly important role of tech in autos.


----------



## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Jefferies has increased the $TSLA target price from $300 to $400

(CNBC paywall link)
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/11/jefferies-tesla-will-climb-to-400-on-sustained-profitability.html


----------



## Dr. J (Sep 1, 2017)

MelindaV said:


> Jefferies has increased the $TSLA target price from $300 to $400
> 
> (CNBC paywall link)
> https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/11/jefferies-tesla-will-climb-to-400-on-sustained-profitability.html


Analysts' price targets are trailing indicators.


----------



## SkipperOFMO (Mar 15, 2019)

Dr. J said:


> Analysts' price targets are trailing indicators.


Glad I listened to my wife and purchased 500 shares when it hit $180. Thank you Tesla!


----------



## MelindaV (Apr 2, 2016)

Bloomberg appears to see the positive in Tesla
Tesla is the Decades Best Performing Automaker

interestingly, the writer, Matthew Winkler, Co-Founder / Editor-In-Chief Emeritus, in the last year typically posts articles about global economics and global impacts on the US economy, not specifically automotive. The last automotive article was December 2018 and also positive on Tesla.


----------



## garsh (Apr 4, 2016)

BOOM!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1209172350798901252


----------

